My only tip for the Breeders' Cup, but it's a doozy

With the Breeders' Cup finally upon us, I'm going to leave the heavy-duty handicapping other pros and bloggers.

I'm gonna make just one highly controversial recommendation.

Toss Quality Road in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I don't write that lightly, and certainly not with any joy. Quality Road's owner and breeder, Edward P. Evans, is one of the true gentlemen of the sport, and a Virginia icon, the state where some of the fondest of my early horse-racing connections (and my only two foals) happen to be. I briefly owned a stallion he bred, the late Silver Music (winner of the G2 Swaps Stakes). Folks associated with his operation have been kind enough to not only offer uncompensated advice on getting into (and getting through) this business, but to take in another older stallion I was placing, giving him a great home and third career as a teaser.

And I'm not rooting against Quality Road on Saturday. I don't do that, even when I have money on a race. I cheer for the horse(s) on my ticket, but never wish ill -- not a bad trip, not even a dull effort -- on the others in the race. They're magnificent animals who lay their lives on the line every time they race and while it's fun to bet 'em (and beat 'em), and intriguing to discuss their place in history (such as the frequent furor around Zenyatta), they all deserve our respect.

If I lose -- and oh, do I lose -- my first thought will usually be "how did I miss that?" Or at the very least: "Today was their day. Not mine."

(Sidebar: If you happen to have a calendar with the date marked on it for when my next "My Day" happens to be, please drop me a line. I've been waiting on that like a kid pining for Christmas.)

No, in this case, I think one of the more wildly talented horses we've seen in the past few years, is just not well-spotted to win this race. And I'm not sure there's anything his connections could do about it.

Some took a dimmer view of Quality Road's chances after he was assigned the 1-hole in the post-position draw. The rail at Churchill can be a tough place to start a race; ask Lookin At Lucky, who was beaten around and against the fence enough on the first trip by the stands in this year's Kentucky Derby to rob him of all chance.

But with fewer horses in the gate (12 vs. 20), the gate's positioning won't be quite so far to the inside and the rail won't "come up" on Quality Road as it does on a Derby starter as they break for a 10-furlong race from Churchill's chute. There also won't be quite the crush of horses trying to get down to the rail. And after all, if there's a horse in this Breeders' Cup Classic who is the speed of the speed if he wants to be, it's Quality Road. So I think he can actually play the 1-hole to his advantage, take the early lead, save ground all the way around while in front (others saving ground will have to shuffle back to do so) and hopefully control the pace to have gas left in the tank for the stretch.

But therein lies the trouble, in my opinion, for Quality Road. I'm not sure whether he's a gas-guzzler, like most muscle cars, or the tank just isn't quite big enough. But when it comes to getting 10 furlongs, I don't think he's the right horse.

From the perspective of just this race, Quality Road isn't likely to get an uncontested lead with a soft pace. The other two logical speed horses are drawn just to his outside -- No. 3 Haynesfield (12/1) and No. 4 First Dude (15/1) -- and have little to lose by just "going for it" from the gate. The 7, Musket Man, another horse I love but think doesn't fit at this distance, isn't the type to let the leaders back up into him too much without pushing them to go on with it. So the 5/1 Quality Road is likely to be hounded by 12/1, 15/1 and 20/1 long-shots who might be even higher in the odds by post-time.

That sets up the race for a stalker or a deep-closer, and apart from Quality Road, that's where the biggest talents of this Breeders' Cup field lie in wait. If she's on her game, expect the undefeated queen, Zenyatta (8/5), to be coming hard in the final two furlongs. I think Lookin At Lucky (6/1) might be the sharpest horse in the field right now and unlike his battering rail-trip in the Derby, can more casually find a spot from which to stalk or close from his position on the far outside. Churchill-loving Blame (9/2) and up-and-comer (but not quite gettin' there-er, sometimes by a whisker) Fly Down (15/1) can settle into good positions from their posts, 5 and 6. If he takes to the track when it's (likely) fast -- something I consider iffy -- turf standout Paddy O'Prado (15/1) could also be closing late as he did to pick up third in a sloppy Derby back in May.

So I'm confident that somebody's gonna pass Quality Road before the wire, as did Blame when they met in the nine-furlong Whitney a couple of months back. (And Blame did it even though Quality Road benefited from fractions of 24.41 and 48.06 that were far from suicidal.) In fact, I wouldn't be flabbergasted if Quality Road were passed in the stretch on Saturday by two horses. Or three. Or more.

Sealing the deal in my opinion is the fact that the undeniably gifted, brilliant, very fast racehorse that is Quality Road, is only a 50/50 proposition when asked to race beyond a mile. He has six lifetime starts at nine or 10 furlongs. He has won three of them, all at the shorter of the two distances, two in record time at Gulfstream (the 2010 Donn H.-G1 and 2009 Florida Derby-G1). But he's 0-for-2 at 10 panels.

Now look inside that raw, coin-toss-equivalent percentage and see the horses he defeated, and which horses managed to beat him in the losses.

The 9f wins, in reverse chronological order:

-- Sept. 4 this year, the Woodward S.-G1, over Mythical Power, Tranquil Manner, Convocation, Indian Dance, Arcodoro and a by-now-flightless Mine That Bird. Apart from Mine That Bird's walking on water in the 2009 Derby, there isn't even a Grade 2 win in that field. Mythical Power has won two G3s; Indian Dance an overnight stake at Laurel. The other three have never won a stakes race of any kind, anywhere. The Woodward, in fact, is Tranquil Manner's only lifetime placing in a stakes race.

-- This year's Donn Handicap in February, the second time Quality Road has set the Gulfstream Park track record for a mile and an eighth, this time at 1:47.49. (He also holds the Saratoga record for 6.5f, a blistering 1:13.45.) Second place was Dry Martini, a rugged war-horse, four-time G2 or G3 winner (including at 10f) and millionaire who has been among the closest to chase home Quality Road more than once. Third was Delightful Kiss, G2 winner of the Ohio Derby. A respectable trifecta. The rest of the field: Mambo Meister; Helsinki; Past the Point; Kiss the Kid; Duke of Mischief; Dubai Gold.

-- The 2009 Florida Derby, a 1:47.72 track record win over Dunkirk (two G1 placings, no stakes wins before he became another Unbridled-line to break and be retired after five races), Theregoesjojo (only horse ever to beat Quality Road at less than 9f, in a 7f Gulfstream allowance, but whose only stakes performance besides two losses to QR is a third at Prairie Meadows), Stately Character (listed winner at Calder, but with three wins from 27 starts), Sincero (listed win at Calder, 5-for-24 lifetime), Casey's On Call (lone stakes win, the Western Canada Handicap at Northlands Park), and Toby the Coal Man (2-for-19 lifetime, no blacktype).

The losses, in reverse chronological order:

-- Quality Road lost the mile and an eighth Whitney to Blame, with Musket Man in third (again, in defiance of his own distance limitations, but still not good enough to win). Haynesfield, who was more than a handful during the gate-loading, was fourth. The only other two horses in the sparse field were a hopeless (yet still just 12/1) Mine That Bird and terribly overmatched Jardim (30/1).

-- Last fall as a 3-year-old, Quality Road was second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 at a mile and a quarter to eventual 3-year-old champion Summer Bird. Hardly an embarrassing "beat." But the horses who finished behind? By finish order: 3. Tizway (now a G2 winner, then a non-winner of any stake); 4. Macho Again (gutted by his narrow loss to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward, later skipped the Breeders' Cup, on the downward spiral toward retirement); 5. Dry Martini; 6. Sette E Mezzo (only career stakes-placing, third in a G2); 7. Asiatic Boy (in the last race of what had been a competitive, albeit not-often-winning, graded-stakes career).

-- In August 2009 at Saratoga, Summer Bird handed Quality Road the first of his two "beats" in head-to-head match-ups, winning the Travers in 2:02.83 for 10 furlongs. Second that day was Hold Me Back at 10/1. Quality Road settled for third as the beaten favorite. The also-rans: Charitable Man; Warrior's Reward; Kensei; Our Edge.

I'm not wishing to disparage the horses who finished behind Quality Road in these races, or to offend their connections. Almost to a horse, they're stakes-performers (at some level, if not graded) and six- or (rarely) even seven-figure earners. They're far better than the average racehorse in this age.

But if you look at all those names and let the caliber of their stakes careers tumble around in your mind just a bit, it isn't a stretch to say that anytime there was a horse in a 9f/10f race who seemed to be anywhere in Quality Road's ballpark on talent and form, that horse managed to beat him. Nor is it off-base to add that of the names of those who finished behind him, you wouldn't put many, if any, on the marquee.

Frankly, Quality Road arguably hasn't faced as many top-shelf-talented horses in his first 12 starts combined as he'll face in one race on Saturday.

I think Quality Road is a monster. All the way out to nine furlongs. He might win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in a laugher, if he ran it. But I know that isn't the race his connections want ... nay, need ... to win.

Quality Road might make me look the fool and win the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday under John Velazquez, for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner/breeder Ned Evans, some of the most respected -- and respectable, and respectful -- people in this business. After all, I was dead-wrong last year when I suggested it might be best to root for Zenyatta in the Classic, but to bet against her.

But I've been taking a stand against him in personal discussions for awhile, based on the 10 furlongs. (That is, the last one furlong more than the first nine.) And I feel strongly enough about it to go public.

Good luck to all. And safe trip.

Horse of the Year Rachel's best, and best for Rachel

How do you define "better off?"

That's an important question in light of the results from my recent poll, in which more than two-thirds of respondents (27 out of 40) said they believed that Rachel Alexandra is not "better off, a year after being bought and campaigned by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen."

I presume most readers who took a stand against Jackson and Asmussen believe that Rachel is not as healthy and fit a horse now as she was last year, or perhaps as she might have been with different handling. Certainly she's beatable now -- defeated twice in a row in desperately close finishes during her first two starts in 2010. And she had proved unbeatable in 2009, going 8-for-8.

I'm going to come down on the side of the minority here. For her utmost impact on racing history, for her value, and for her long-term legacy, I think Rachel Alexandra benefited from Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen.

What's certain in a situation like this is that nothing can be certain. Hindsight might be 20/20, but speculation (though I love engaging in it, too) usually isn't worth 20 cents.

There are, however, certain truisms of racing and horses. Not the least of these is that some horses are simply better (or at least more dominant among their peers) at age 2 or 3 than they ever will be after, while others are later-maturing.

And one axiom of life that's hard to ignore is this: You must strike while the iron is hot.

When Jackson's Stonestreet Stables acquired Rachel Alexandra after her scintillating, record-breaking victory in last year's Kentucky Oaks, there was little doubt he'd just bought the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

Bought had he bought the best horse?

That handy hindsight tells us probably not, since her unbeaten ways have not carried over into 2010, while Zenyatta continues to stand 17 hands tall at 16-0 lifetime. But by the end of last season, history shows, Jackson had bought the eventual Horse of the Year.

Following her crushing Oaks win, had Rachel stayed in the hands of her first trainer, Hal Wiggins, and her breeder, Dolphus Morrison (who doesn't believe in racing fillies against colts), she would have been pointed to the Black-Eyed Susan-G2 at Pimlico on Preakness Eve. Barring some freak incident or catastrophe, she'd have likely smashed a short field of sophomore fillies by the same sort of margin she'd posted in the Oaks. And while that win would have been another big step toward being champion 3-year-old filly, it would have done little toward earning her a Horse of the Year crown, and virtually nothing toward stamping her career as legendary.

Instead, Jackson and Asmussen entered her in the Preakness. There, Rachel did most of the work on the front end of a 9 1/2-furlong test, put away a talented speed horse in Big Drama (a 7-furlong record-setter) and still had the grit to hold off a gutsy Derby-showing Musket Man and the sharp and fast-closing Derby champ Mine That Bird to claim an historic win. She had beaten boys, she was the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness, and now talk quickly shifted toward whether Rachel Alexandra could become Horse of the Year.

Jackson and Asmussen shrewdly backed off the throttle for Rachel's next start. They entered her at Belmont in the Mother Goose, which drew up predictably short after almost nobody thought it wise to enter their girl against Super Girl. She romped in the Mother Goose, setting stakes records for time and margin, but clearly expended much less effort than had she been asked to face colts and geldings again on the heels of her Preakness win.

Already 6-for-6 on the season with three Grade 1 wins, Rachel was positioned to at least stake a claim to Horse of the Year by collecting two more noteworthy victories. She gathered those in the Haskell Invitational -- where she all but ran Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird and speedy sprinter Munnings off their feet in the slop -- and in September's Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, becoming the first female ever to win that race against older males; a race run since 1954.

By the finish line of her Woodward win, Rachel had done enough -- as the Eclipse voting months later bore out -- to be named Horse of the Year, despite not running in the Breeders' Cup and not facing Zenyatta, who scored an historic win of her own on that championship weekend as the first female ever to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The campaign clearly took a lot out of Rachel. She was cooped up (a debatable choice versus true turnout) for months before starting back to work. And unlike her championship season of 2009, she's proved unable to muster the gumption to stave off any and all challengers, getting nipped at the wire in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes by 6-year-old Zardana and nosed out of the La Troienne-G2 at Churchill by Unrivaled Belle.

But is Rachel worse? Isn't it possible that on these dates -- remember, Rachel's first two starts since a lengthy layoff -- a very fit older mare and a rising 4-year-old who is more lightly raced and at the top of her form cycle, were just a little bit better?

And even if Rachel is not her former self, who's to say she would have been anyway, even with less aggressive handling?

John Shirreffs has done a masterful job with two-time champion older female Zenyatta. She didn't race at all as a juvenile, and Shirreffs thereafter brought the giant mare along slowly, allowing her to grow into her body and her talent. As a result, she is as brilliant at age 6, if not more so, than she was during her first championship season at age 4.

But there's no guarantee that a softer handling of Rachel Alexandra at age 3 would have resulted in a 4-year-old filly to rival Zenyatta at 4. A more conservative course for Rachel at 3 could have still resulted in a 3-year-old filly title, but hardly Horse of the Year, and she still might not be any better at age 4 than she's proven so far to be.

And let's face it: Unlike Jerry and Ann Moss, who have chosen to bring Zenyatta back at age 6 for another season of racing (for which we should be cascading them with roses), there's almost no chance that Jess Jackson has any interest in racing Rachel at age 5, let alone 6. She'll be in the breeding shed next late-February or early March, being covered by Jackson's two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. So what was better for Rachel's future value as a broodmare (and the prospective prices of her foals)? Two really good seasons and one "lesser" championship among fillies and mares?

I think -- for her value (a practical concern in a sport that is a business) and for her legacy -- Rachel Alexandra was better served by one full-throttle season in which she shook the racing world and made history almost every time she ran, with the well-earned reward of 2009 Horse of the Year.

It's a trainer's job to recognize how and when to get the most out of his horse. Nobody could have gotten more out of Rachel Alexandra in 2009 than did Steve Asmussen; she was Horse of the Year.

Did that leave her "short" in 2010? It's impossible to say with any certainty; we can only be guessing. So that's no more than a definite maybe.

But it's safe to say that if Rachel Alexandra had been handled more conservatively last year, she'd only have been the champion 3-year-old filly, not Horse of the Year.

And this year, she probably still wouldn't be able to beat Zenyatta.

'Bird's baby brother goes to the dogs ...

Errr, that is, to Dogwood Stable.

The Blood-Horse reports that a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird has sold this morning at the Fasig-Tipton Mid-Atlantic sale of 2-year-olds for $485,000.

The colt actually has 2009 Triple Crown ties on both sides of the family. In addition to being half-brother to the Derby champ and Preakness-placer (both being out of the Smart Strike mare Mining My Own), the sales colt is a son of Yonaguska, sire of Musket Man, who was third in both races. (And who won the Illinois Derby-G2.)

Yonaguska, who started his stud career in Kentucky but who now stands at Elite Thoroughbreds in Folsom, La., has a 2-year-old sales average entering 2009 of just $57,299 by comparison. So this is a big sales success for the sire ... thanks of course in large part to the dam and the sibling.

That price, by the way, is a darn sight loftier than the figure Mine That Bird sold for as a yearling: $9,500.

Wither the Preakness starters? Here's my advice.

Late Saturday it started running through my head: If I were the connections of various Preakness starters, what would I do next?

Here are the conclusions I reached.

1. Rachel Alexandra: Winning the Preakness earned back a fair piece (maybe 6 to 10 percent) of her purchase price for Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables and Harold McCormick. She was impressive, tiring perhaps toward the end, but she did all the work in the race, gunning from the 13 hole and taking the field gate to wire. And jockey Calvin Borel said she didn't handle the track "110 percent." The Belmont is not a given; neither as a win (Mine That Bird is a'comin') nor even as a destination. She's defeated boys and can go back to beating up on fillies and have a fair chance at Horse of the Year -- clearly one of Jackson's goals -- without necessarily facing them again, especially if she knocks heads with defending filly and mare champ Zenyatta somewhere along the way and beats her, too. Unless Rachel is perfect in training the next three weeks, that's what I'd do. And maybe even then.

2. Mine That Bird: Better than I imagined, the Little Gelding Who Could probably will in the Belmont. He's a gelding, so the only way for him to earn his keep is by racing. If he's "right," he goes to New York, and probably as the favorite, with or without Rachel Alexandra. Look for him in some challenging spots at classic distances -- The Haskell at Monmouth early in August and the Travers at Saratoga at the end of the month, particularly. The goal is the Breeders' Cup Classic, but if that doesn't seem the best spot when that time comes, perhaps tackle the B.C. Marathon this year (he should get the distance; we'll know post-Belmont) and the Classic at 4.

3. Musket Man: Few Triple Crown-trail entrants have impressed me more than this colt. Sired by a sprinter who has already been banished from Kentucky to Louisiana (Yonaguska) he just doesn't seem bred to get the distances of the Preakness (9.5 furlongs) and Kentucky Derby (10f). But he "toughed" his way to third in both, and he won the Illinois Derby-G2 covering 9f at Hawthorne. It seemed his finishes at Churchill and Pimlico were all guts and not enough "kick;" he couldn't overtake Pioneerof The Nile at Churchill nor Rachel at Pimlico, and got outfinished by Mine That Bird. No shame in that and I'm not saying I'd never consider sending him longer than 8.5 or 9 furlongs again. But I do think he might be devastating in a one-turn mile.

4. Flying Private: What an improvement from Derby (last of 19) to Preakness (fourth). He might not have been as bad as the former and might not be as good as the latter; time will tell. Despite more than a quarter-million earned, he still has just one win from 12 starts. Time to get that second win in softer company.

5. Big Drama: Fifth place at Pimlico, but might've run the second-or third-biggest race. He already was coming into the Preakness with only one prep (DQ'ed from first in a 7f record-shattering performance at Gulfstream), and being asked to go an eighth more distance than he'd ever raced. Then he lived up to his name by bucking off John Velazquez in the starting gate, and followed that by bobbling the break. Somehow, he still made the co-lead with that freak of a filly while being wandered out into the center of the track, I can only presume in an effort to hang her out wide on the turn. Fifth beaten 5 1/2 doesn't seem so bad after all that. Nevertheless, as another, like Musket Man, who is sired by a sprinter (Montbrook) I would turn him back in his next start; maybe the G2 Woody Stephens at 7f on the Belmont undercard. We know he's a beast at that distance.

6. Papa Clem: This colt has had a tough trail. Second in both the Robert B. Lewis on the California circuit and the Louisiana Derby when shipped cross-country to Fair Grounds, he finally picked up that big graded win in the Arkansas Derby, over now-retired Old Fashioned. He was a brave fourth after a troubled trip on Derby Day, but a disappointing sixth at Pimlico despite less trouble than most of the field seems to have had. Seems time for a break. One of the best-bred in what is obviously a first-class group -- by Smart Strike, sire of Curlin and English Channel, and both his first two dams were G1 winners -- the sky is still the limit for this one. But after all that racing and traveling, a month or six weeks off could be in order.

7. Terrain: Has knocked heads with good horses, but hasn't won a race since Sept. 13, age 2, the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 -- and that by double-DQ. Bred to get a route of ground, he just hasn't been good enough to win in top-graded company. A move down in class from G1/G2 company is likely in order, at least until he wins a couple and regains confidence.

8. Luv Gov: Can we try NW2L company next out? Please?

9. General Quarters: Another one likely due for a break. He has campaigned hard and earned a bit of glory for his amazing, retired ex-school-principal owner/trainer/groom Thomas F. McCarthy, taking the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa. But he's made six starts already at 3 and is one of the few 2-year-olds who didn't really rest over the winter, running in four allowances (no wins?!) in October and November, then placing in Tampa's Inaugural Stakes two days after Christmas. Tenth at Churchill and ninth at Pimlico might be signs of fatigue. Break or not, I'd next send him back to the surface of his greatest victory -- synthetics. For Mr. McCarthy, that could mean working vacations to Canada (Woodbine) or California, or maybe just hanging around Chicago to try older horses in the Chicago H.-G3 on Independence Day at Arlington Park and the Washington Park H.-G3 in September.

10. Friesan Fire: Trouble at Churchill (18th place, suffering minor cuts on his legs), trouble at Pimlico (dropped almost to his knees at the start, finished 10th), so you'd think it might be time to pull back and regroup. But trainer Larry Jones is one of the best, and spaced this colt's races right leading up to the Derby. He shouldn't be too fatigued, though it's hard to imagine he came out of the Preakness terribly well, tough trip considered. But I wouldn't expect him to be sidelined all that long. While his sire is A.P. Indy, who usually throws plenty of stamina, his dam, Australian-bred Group 1-winner Bollinger, was a sprinter, so maybe the races in which he was so successful -- the Lecomte (8f), Risen Star (8.5f) and Louisiana Derby (8.5f), all at Fair Grounds -- are indicative that he's really a miler.

11. Pioneerof The Nile: I have two words for owner Ahmed Zayat and trainer Bob Baffert -- Hollywood Derby. Time and again we've seen synthetic performance translate to turf, and vice-versa, on the California circuit. He placed on synethic in the Lane's End at Keeneland, age 2, then ran a respectable fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. And he did everything right in four straight graded wins over synthetics leading up to Churchill. So we're goin' back to Cali (Cali, Cali) and is anyone gonna beat us? (I don't think so.) ... Seriously though, turns out Pioneer broke his maiden on the lawn at Saratoga, no mean feat. And while his sire, Empire Maker, might have run on dirt, Empire Maker's dam, Toussaud, was a turf mare and produced three G1/G2 turf winners, Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy. And (I've written this before), Pioneer's dam, Star of Goshen, was turf-stakes-placed, not to mention a daughter of noted turf sire, Lord At War(ARG), John's Call (Turf Classic Invitational, Sword Dancer Invitational) and Honor In War (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic) notable as G1-winning turf offspring. ... A bolder course of action would be to check out Pioneer's 3-year-old grass form in the Colonial Turf Cup-G2, two weeks after the Belmont (so five weeks of rest since Pimlico) and, if he wins there, point to the Virginia Derby-G2 and follow the Grand Slam of Grass trail all the way to the Breeders' Cup Turf-G1. ... But admittedly, I love grass horses.

12. Tone It Down: A return to allowance-level company is in order. I'll leave it at that until he shows me more.

13. Take The Points: I liked this colt prior to the Preakness. He was six-wide in the race, but I have a feeling something else went wrong, or perhaps they'll find he's not feeling well, because this battler had never been worse than fourth in his life. He's run his fastest going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, but was respectable in two starts on synthetics in California. Appears to be bred to go however far he needs, so I wouldn't absolutely cut him back in distance for good. Just figure out what went wrong and try to find a group he can beat next time.

Preakness, post-race, post-slumber

A collection of musings spilling forth after a night to sleep on how Rachel Alexandra won the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

Rachel Alexandra is as good as advertised. Mine That Bird proved to me he was better than I thought. Probably much better. Barring traffic problems that forced Mike Smith to swing him seven wide, he might have gotten up in time.


So, as some fans feared, Rachel Alexandra might have "stolen" our chance at the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Of course you never know how the race would have turned out with one fewer horse -- the winner, particularly. But if Rachel hadn't taken the Preakness from him, Mine That Bird, who came home second and full of run, might have had a very legit shot at a Triple Crown. He's sure looked like the only horse in the two races thus far who has handled 9.5f and 10f like he wanted even more ground. Of course, if "ifs and buts" were candy and nuts, then every day would be Christmas. (Or as Aussie bull rider Troy Dunn once quipped to me during a post-rodeo interview, "Yeah, and if me auntie had balls, she'd be me uncle.")

And thus, is Mark Allen now regretting his decision that prompted him to say it "ain't right" keeping Rachel out of the race by entering nominated-but-undeserving colts to protect Mine That Bird?

Reading the Preakness chart, I don't know that I've ever seen so many horses with evidence of troubled trips. The order of finish behind Rachel, with "trouble" notes as applicable: Mine That Bird (std'd 1/4, 7w); Musket Man (std'd rail 1/4); Flying Private (steadied early and 1/4); Big Drama(fractious gate, bobbled); Papa Clem; Terrain (run btw, in tight 3/16); Luv Gov (angled 8wd); General Quarters (shuffl early, std'd 1/8); Friesan Fire (bobbled st); Pioneerof The Nile (5wd btw); Tone It Down; Take The Points (6wd to far turn). ... Does this mean nine of 13 exit the race with some sort of excuse?

I love Calvin Borel. I love his enthusiasm. I love how "down to earth" he is. (Though with his upbringing, how could he not be?) I love that all he wants from life is to be around and to ride these horses; how that gives him unbridled joy; how it seems that he finds something to appreciate about every horse he meets, every one is "a good horse"; and how with him, they get better. Cheers, Calvin. May this run through the Oaks, Derby, Preakness and beyond make you one of the most in-demand riders in racing.

What now of the Belmont Stakes? If Mine That Bird comes out of the Preakness well and good, no doubt he should go. He'll be a favorite, if not the favorite, even if Rachel runs. Maybe she didn't like the Pimlico surface that much, or maybe she just hadn't been tested so hard before, but it appeared she was beginning to labor at the end of the Preakness; or at least wasn't as good as him at the end. She didn't look like a filly that would be comfortable at 12 furlongs. But her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, placed in the Belmont (to Sarava), so maybe. It would sure make the race worth watching, a "gender wars" rivalry between these two. But I don't want her going there if it's bad or wrong for her, and I'm not sure it wouldn't be wrong for her. ... Which leads us back to, "So, as some fans feared, Rachel Alexandra might have 'stolen' our first chance for a Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978."

If that's the case, it wouldn't be the first time. Most notable is 1968, when Forward Pass had won both the Derby (edit: by DQ) and Preakness. Then: Cue Stage Door Johnny. ... Having not competed in either prior Triple Crown race, he exited stage left with the Belmont trophy, relegating Forward Pass to second place and robbing him of marquee billing among racing's historic leading men.

And then there was Birdstone, sire of Mine That Bird. He did compete in the 2004 Derby, albeit well-beaten by Smarty Jones. Smarty took the Preakness handily while Birdstone rested and prepped for the Belmont. There, as we all recall, a Triple Crown again was denied, with a devastating late kick by a slightly smallish horse -- a stature and running style passed down from sire to son; a son whose shot at the crown was denied Saturday in Baltimore. ... The Racing Gods giveth, and they taketh away.

Preakness preview, post by post

Here's the 13-horse Preakness Stakes field, and my thoughts on each. Includes morning-line odds (demand better if red, take 'em if green), five-generation pedigree (5x) and individual past-performances as PDFs from Daily Racing Form (PPs):

1. Big Drama (Montbrook-Riveting Drama, by Notebook), 10-1, 5x, PPs: Talented colt whose 5-for-7 ($890,250) record would be 6-for-7 if not disqualified to second in his Gulfstream record-shattering triumph in the Swale S. (7f in 1:20.88, 108 Beyer). Sire was a sprinter whose progeny average winning distance is just 6.45 furlongs; dam unraced but producer of three blacktype. Despite his sire's history, he won two stakes at 8.5f at age 2, though now being asked to go a furlong further than he ever has, and due to injury with only one race thus far at 3. John Velazquez rides as Eibar Coa sticks with Derby-third Musket Man. Early speed will make him a factor, but might wither before the wire.

2. Mine That Bird (Birdstone-Mining My Own, by Smart Strike), 6-1, 5x, PPs: Derby winner probably hopes for a wet Preakness for a repeat performance. Race sets up for him with speed to his inside as he's likely to take back a little (or a lot) and can do so freely and quickly to the nearby rail. Young sire off to a good start, including this Canadian champion 2-year-old, and a pedigree with virtually zero distance limitations. Derby Beyer of 105 was a completely unpredictable advance from prior-best figures of 80 and 81, and regression here would be no surprise. Has won 5-of-9 for $1,791,581, under three different jocks; loses Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra but gets hall-of-famer Mike Smith. Odds close to fair, but would like him better if Calvin did, too.

3. Musket Man (Yonaguska-Fortuesque, by Fortunate Prospect), 8-1, 5x, PPs: Illinois Derby-G2 winner at a mile and an eighth, but the 98 Beyer would have to improve, for par among Preakness winners is 111. Consistent 5-for-7 and $772,662. Sire was a sprinter, but colt showed with Derby third at 10f that 9 1/2 furlongs shouldn't be too, too far, at least for his guts if not for his pedigree. Odds fair, but in this group, don't settle for much shorter.

4. Luv Gov (Ten Most Wanted-City of Silver, by Nepal), 50-1, 5x, PPs: I'm still convinced this horse is only in the field to let his connections save face after it was stated that they were entering him during the Allen/Zayat anti-Rachel plot of last Sunday. If this closer figures at all, of course, I'll look like a fool. But he only just broke maiden in his 10th lifetime start ($62,896 total), on the Derby undercard. Career-best Beyer (87) in that race, but Jamie Theriot would have to coax 20 more points out of him to win here. A scratch before post-time? (Please?)

5. Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy-Bollinger, by Dehere), 6-1, 5x, PPs: Derby 18th a better 6-1 shot than the Derby first Mine That Bird? Possibly, though I'd like to get slightly better. Difference is Friesan Fire was showing nothing but progress (Beyers 94, 97, 104) before getting squeezed, bumped and eliminated from contention in Derby, where Gabriel Saez cantered him home, saving energy the 'Bird spent. Had won 4-of-7 for $603,265 prior, over fast strips and in the slop. Sire one of the best in America; dam an Aussie-bred Group 1 winner on turf.

6. Terrain (Sky Mesa-Minery, by Forty Niner), 30-1, 5x, PPs: For great-grandson of A.P. Indy out of a stakes winning Forty Niner mare (multiple blacktype-producer), distance won't be a problem. Has been a consistent performer, albeit consistently not first since three straight wins (one by double-DQ in the Arlington-Washington Futurity) in his first three races. Career-best Beyer a 91 coming home a hailing-distance third behind Friesan Fire (and close to placer Papa Clem) in sloppy Louisiana Derby-G2. Jock Jeremy Rose knows how to find winner's circle in Preakness (Afleet Alex). Beaten by four others who are in this race (also General Quarters and Big Drama) but did finish second to Pioneerof The Nile's third in Breeders' Futurity-G1. Exotics only.

7. Papa Clem (Smart Strike-Miss Houdini, by Belong To Me), 12-1, 5x, PPs: Gutty performer has won just two of seven, but for $899,940 as one was the Arkansas Derby-G2 wrested away from once-Derby-Trail-favorite (now injured) Old Fashioned. Has lost to several in the field, but had to be steadied and still finished only a half-length out of second in the Derby to Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man. Dam a G1-winning 2-year-old (Del Mar Debutante) who only lasted four starts; second dam won a pair of G1s and earned $903,000. Barely beat Terrain in Louisiana Derby-G2, but has progressed. Career-best 101 Beyer is close enough to threaten. Sire throws classic-distance champions (Curlin, English Channel) on dirt and turf. Rafael Bejarano will give him a chance, and at a price.

8. General Quarters (Sky Mesa-Ecology, by Unbridled's Song), 20-1, 5x, PPs: Horse has won three of 12 for $641,735, but one was the Blue Grass S.-G1 at Keeneland, which got him into the Derby for owner and one-horse trainer Thomas R. McCarthy. I liked him at Churchill and probably shouldn't have; he wandered home 10th, beaten nearly 18. But PPs show bounces followed by peaks -- 102 Beyer beating Musket Man in the Sam F. Davis-G3 followed by 81 in losing to the same horse in the Tampa Bay Derby-G3. Followed-up with a winning 95 in the Blue Grass, then dipped to 79 at Churchill. Is the Preakness under Julien Leparoux his next peak, at twice the Churchill price?

9. Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker-Star of Goshen, by Lord At War), 5-1, 5x, PPs: Mr. Consistency is, other than Rachel Alexandra, the overall class of the field. Grade 1 wins at 2 and 3; 5-for-9 for $1,634,200; four straight graded wins prior to a Derby-second under Garrett Gomez; dam a stakes winner and multiple graded-blacktype producer. Hard to knock, but something tells me I want at least that 5-1 and might not get it. ... An aside, by Empire Maker (dam Toussaud a graded stakes-winning turf mare, siblings Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy graded turf winners) and out of a turf-blacktype Lord At War mare, when do I get to see this colt on the lawn?

10. Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus-Beautiful Treasure, by Unbridled), 50-1, 5x, PPs: Derby-winning sire was second in Preakness. Dam was stakes-placed. Has gotten 9 furlongs decently (94, 91 Beyers) in the Lane's End-G2 and Arkansas Derby-G2. Only one win in 11 tries, but has knocked heads in graded company of late and earned nearly $200,000. Still, took three races to break maiden and has faced N1x allowance company four times without getting that second win, so two stakes-placings (at 6f and 9f), one graded, were hard to predict. Alan Garcia takes over from Derby rider Robby Albarado. Will be near the front and (with four seconds) sometimes fights to hang on for a piece. A better 50-1 shot than Luv Gov.

11. Take The Points (Even The Score-Ginger Ginger, by Fred Astaire), 30-1, 5x, PPs: Second-best (by 6) to early-fave-turned-off-Derby-trail The Pamplemousse in G3 Sham, then a respectable fourth behind Pioneerof The Nile, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in the Santa Anita Derby-G1. Stamina influences abound in pedigree; the distance won't be a problem. Dam unplaced in one start, but also produced an Indiana-bred restricted stakes winner in Tin Man Commin (Tinner's Way). Only six starts, but top Beyer is a 99, and he's a fighter who has never been worse than fourth. And, both career wins came in his only two starts under Edgar Prado, who takes him back today. Live at 30-1.

12. Tone It Down (Medaglia D'Oro-Chattin, by Rollicking), 50-1, 5x, PPs: Connections must have been encouraged by show finish in Pimlico's Federico Tesio on Derby Day, but considering the top two finishers in that race weren't deemed worthy of the Preakness, this colt shouldn't have been, either. Top Beyer of 87 would fall far short. Dam only a modest winner, but produced Maryland-bred champ filly Gin Talking (Allen's Prospect). Gets hall-of-famer Kent Desormeaux, who must've been desperate for a Preakness ride as he elbows out Maryland-circuit staple Mario Pino, who'd ridden the colt every race of his life prior. (Desormeaux otherwise is riding today in the Dixie-G2 and two maiden-specials.) Should be near the front, but seems to have little chance.

13. Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia D'Oro-Lotta Kim, by Roar), 8-5, 5x, PPs: Belle of the ball has the boys' boxers in a bunch. Comes in soaring off a 20 1/4-length romp in the Kentucky Oaks that earned a 108 Beyer, her fifth straight win in as many starts with Calvin Borel and her fourth consecutive triple-digit figure, the fifth being a tick below at 99. Borel to a degree handicapped this race for everyone by taking off the Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to stick with a filly. Yes, she is that good. By a Grade-1 classic-distance winner out of a stakes winning mare who is half to two other blacktype runners. Much points to her being the first filly to win this race since Nellie Morse in 1924, but at this price (or potentially even shorter) she's a bet-against. A front-running filly who has been no worse than a head off the lead in her five wins with Borel, she might have the speed to make the lead or come close, but she'll need to reach the front (or else change character and take back) or risk losing ground on the first turn from Post 13. Only good thing about the post is that she won't be bullied from both sides by jealous boys, though someone might try to hang her out wide. And how will she respond to her sale and the resulting barn switch from the only trainer she's ever known, Hal Wiggins, to Steve Asmussen? She's been the most prohibitive of favorites in her last four against fillies, and might be short-priced again here, but this is a much tougher test. Good luck and Godspeed to her; she'll need it. And if you take her to win, key her over someone in the exotics if you hope to make any serious money.

All said, this could be a Preakness for the ages. Safe trip to all, and let's hope it's remembered only for good reasons.

(Full-field PPs free from DRF's Formulator.)

Borel's bet: He chooses filly for the Preakness

So it is confirmed: Rachel Alexandra's new connections, primarily Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, will send the Kentucky Oaks-winning filly to take on the boys in the May 16 Preakness Stakes.

And Calvin Borel, the jockey who pulled off the Oaks-Derby double at Churchill May 1 and 2 has taken off Derby champion Mine That Bird to ride the filly.

It's a good decision for Borel, albeit with some risk. If Rachel Alexandra can beat colts in a Triple Crown race, it will go down as one of the most memorable renewals of the Preakness. And obviously Borel thinks the filly has as much or better chance to win than Mine That Bird, who was a surprise Derby victor (largely due to a spectacular ride by Borel) at 50-1 odds.

If Mine That Bird somehow wins the Preakness -- possible, though he's looking now at being at best third- or fourth-favored in the race (behind Rachel Alexandra, probably Pioneerof The Nile and perhaps a horse like Musket Man) -- then it will be under some other jockey. And that jockey will have a shot at a share of the highly improbable glory when the gelding heads to New York, where his sire, Birdstone, robbed Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown with a late run in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

Good luck to Rachel Alexandra. May she acquit herself well at Pimlico, and most importantly, may everyone come home safe and sound.