The last word on Luv Gov, I promise ... until ...

With the Belmont Stakes in the books, it's time to close a chapter in my life as a fledgling blogger: My obsession with Luv Gov.

The 3-year-old Ten Most Wanted colt ran the second-biggest race of his life Saturday -- first-biggest (if that's a term) if you don't consider winning or placing to be all that important. He came home fifth in the Belmont, and that's worth $30,000.

I first became aware of the Marylou Whitney-owned colt when his name surfaced amid the plot to block Rachel Alexandra from the Preakness. While Ahmed Zayat claimed he'd been told Whitney would enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Birdstone), ostensibly by protecting Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird from the girl, the Whitney camp insisted they wouldn't enter Luv Gov in the Preakness if he was, in effect, the last colt in the gate, thus blocking the supplementally nominated filly. I wrote that I found it hard to believe that Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas were serious about entering a colt who took 10 tries to break maiden into a Grade 1 race for his next start, and they might (I hoped) even scratch him before post time. But they proved they were at least serious enough (or under scrutiny enough) to run him and he straggled home eighth at Pimlico.

I subsequently asked if, please, we couldn't get Luv Gov some NW2L competition for his next out. Clearly not among my blog's six followers, Whitney and Lukas didn't listen to the advice, and brought the colt to the Belmont Stakes. My sensibilities offended, I stated my discontent, in part comedically, but in part sincere.

Nevertheless, on Saturday at Belmont, Luv Gov again rallied past the expended and this time, got up for fifth. That's the last of the real checks; everybody after his $30K just got a flat $4,000. Equibase even gave him a 100 speed figure (page 2 of chart), which is a bit of a head-scratcher for me, considering the winner, Summer Bird, garnered a 112 and finished 10 1/2 lengths ahead of our subject colt. I suspect the Beyers for all will be a smidge lower than the Equibase figures, and that the discrepancy between the winner and fifth place might be a little wider than 12 points.

As my headline's vague caveat suggests, I might not be able to ignore Luv Gov forever. Now that the colt has galloped his way into my consciousness, I'll need to keep an eye out for him in the future. After all, there's news to be made. He's now earned $92,896; when will he break $100,000? And where will he turn up next?

A class-drop is probably in order. I mean, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes is coming right up Aug. 1 at Saratoga.

Poll of the Millennium: The Triple Crown

With another year's Triple Crown Trail almost over, and a guarantee there will be no crown bestowed this year (thanks to Rachel Alexandra, Belmont Stakes results notwithstanding), it's worth asking readers what they think of the series.

Are you with D. Wayne Lukas in thinking the Belmont should be shortened? Should the races be spaced farther apart to give horses more time to prep in-between? Are you in the camp of a newsgroup friend of mine who would like to see a distance progression like the British Triple Crown -- a mile race, like the Two Thousand Guineas, to kick things off, then perhaps the Derby at 10f and another classic race? Are Pimlico and the Preakness dead and it's a moot point anyway?

I for one like the Triple Crown the way it is. Yes it's hard to attain. It's supposed to be hard.

The three differences I see in the degree of difficulty vs., say, the 1970s, include:

1. Thoroughbreds whose pedigrees carry somewhat more speed than in the past.

2. A 20-horse Kentucky Derby field that is a traffic nightmare and sometimes can rob a favorite of his advantage in talent or led to the occasional freak result. Our last devastatingly good, woulda, coulda, shoulda been-a Triple Crown winner, Spectacular Bid in '79, was part of a 10-horse Derby field.

3. Trainers who don't really know much anymore about how to prep a horse for three races in a period of six Saturdays, because they're more used to running Grade 1 horses three times in six months.

So vote in the poll and leave your comments in this thread. We're open all week, until Belmont afternoon, anyway.

Disclaimer: The Poll of the Millennium isn't necessarily the or the only poll of the entire millennium and such name is not meant to indicate that it is. The management reserves the right to publish as many Polls of the Millennium, as frequently as it deems reasonable and prudent -- or merely entertaining. The blogger, however, does not cast any vote in Poll of the Millennium.

Rachel out of Belmont; and ready for her close-up, Mr. Klein

It's official: Rachel Alexandra won't run in the Belmont Stakes.

If we needed a hint, it came earlier Friday when the fabulous filly spent more time posing for a photographer from Vogue than she did jogging over the track at Churchill Downs.

Granted, I don't know Rachel's normal work schedule under trainer Steve Asmussen. She might have been due for only an easy lap on Friday morning anyway.

What I was certain about is that a barn trying to make sure its newly-purchased star had her game-face on for a Grade 1 race at a mile and a half against colts and one high-soaring gelding was not likely to schedule an appointment with renowned fashion photographer Steven Klein, wake the filly from a comfy afternoon slumber, and traipse her in front of a 10x16 backdrop fashioned between Barns 36 and 38 at Curchill. The shots by Klein -- who has also photgraphed Madonna and "Brangelina," and whose work has been used in ads for Calvin Klein and Dolce & Gabbana -- are to appear in August's issue of Vogue.

The idea to feature a horse in one of America's glitziest fashion mags popped into the head of Vogue editor-in-chief Anna Wintour after she was present to witness the filly's Preakness win. And I'll go on record as saying this kind of publicity will be absolutely awesome for horse racing.

But it didn't seem like Asmussen and Stonestreet Stable were terribly focused on the Belmont Stakes, nor interested in risking a June "beat" for Rachel in such a tough race when her photo spread won't be due on newsstands until August.

As Rachel waits, Derby winner dangles

Here we are, less than a week from the Belmont Stakes draw, with no commitment made from the Rachel Alexandra camp about whether the phenomenal filly will be present for a rematch with Derby winner Mine That Bird, whom she bested in the Preakness.

The Blood-Horse's Steve Haskin muses about why that might be, and speculates -- I think correctly -- that Rachel's connections, including Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable, have to be at least 90 percent certain by now about what they're going to do. But Haskin notes that Jackson has given conflicting signals, including statements that they'd know by last Monday whether Rachel was ready; now we'll know by this coming Monday, which for a mid-week draw and Saturday race is pretty much go-time.

Haskin writes that a decision on Monday is cutting it awfully close, and "leaves the NYRA marketing department up the proverbial creek without a paddle."

There's somebody else Jackson has left in a holding pattern: Mine That Bird.

By now I'm leaning heavily toward the notion that Rachel Alexandra won't run in the Belmont Stakes. My desire for a rematch aside, I think if she were my filly I wouldn't consider it the right spot for her.

Rachel opting out would leave her regular rider, Calvin Borel, free to reclaim the mount aboard Mine That Bird, a job he gave up when both horses were entered in the Preakness. Mike Smith rode Mine That Bird to second in that race, but has taken off the horse to stay out west next weekend and ride Madeo, a Jerry and Ann Moss horse, in the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham Memorial at Hollywood Park the same afternoon. Mine That Bird's trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., has decided he'll wait and see whether Borel is available, and that means waiting out Jackson's decision on Rachel's Belmont future. Borel has even worked Woolley's horse in the interim.

I think Jackson might be tickled to make them sweat. After all, Mine That Bird's owner, Mark Allen, stuck Jackson and Co. in the sauna for a day when he, Ahmed Zayat and perhaps others gave serious consideration to blocking Rachel Alexandra from the Preakness by entering enough nominated, but undeserving, colts. All Jackson could do was dab at his brow for hours, until the Derby winner's connections and Zayat publicly changed their minds.

The Belmont-decision delay might just be Jackson's chance at a little turnabout. You made me wait and see whether my horse would run at Pimlico; I'll make you wait and see whether you get your jockey back for Belmont.

If so, that's the stuff good rivalries are made of.

Not Luv Gov again!

Why won't Luv Gov leave us in peace?

The Ten Most Wanted colt who I said had no business in the Preakness -- and who pretty much ran like it, placing eighth -- has officially been pointed to the Belmont Stakes. He might win and make me look the fool, but I say he doesn't belong there, either.

Luv Gov broke his maiden (at 10th asking, a term you don't hear that often about Grade 1 stakes horses) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. His name first cropped up as a Preakness entry amid the subterfuge intended to keep eventual winner Rachel Alexandra out of the race. Ahmed Zayat, owner of Pioneerof The Nile, said Marylou Whitney planned to enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Belmont winner Birdstone, sire of Derby winner Mine That Bird) and the only colt to emerge from Whitney's string with Preakness intentions was Luv Gov. (The Whitney camp issued a blanket denial of a role in any conspiracy.)

Either Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas are actually every bit as confident in this horse's ability as they say -- they were quoted as entering the Preakness feeling he "(had) a legitimate chance," also not something you hear often from the camp a 1-for-10 horse entered in a Grade 1 classic -- or else they're taking this charade two steps too far.

I just don't see how this entry adds up. Other than the truly special athletes, a horse deserves his conditions; in this case, the right to face non-winners of two when he himself has not yet won twice in his life.

Luv Gov took 10 races to break maiden. He did so impressively, closing from deep in the pack to draw off and win by 6 1/2 lengths going a mile and a sixteenth in the slop, for an 87 Beyer. But running off from maidens by 6 1/2 is a far cry from announcing your Grade 1 status unless perhaps you're a first-out 2-year-old.

The colt is improving. He had only one decent Beyer at age 2, a 73 in finishing third behind the ill-fated Stormalory in a Polytrack route at Keeneland. His other juvenile efforts earned Beyers of 39, 27, 49, 37 and (after the 73) a 30. (See his full pre-Preakness PPs here.)

He progressed considerably for Lukas after a layoff from November 2008 to March 2009, when he returned at Oaklawn Park. He was second there in two straight maiden special weight efforts, with Beyers of 83 and a regressive 74, then ran well again over Keeneland's synthetic surface in a place finish from his third 3-year-old start. Then the win at Churchill.

But an instant jump to Grade 1 races?

The Belmont actually makes more sense than the Preakness, I suppose. Whitney's a New Yorker and probably wants to see one of her horses in the show. And we've seen several seemingly overmatched horses -- particularly deep closers -- get up for a piece of the action at the end of the arduous 12 furlongs. Whitney's own Birdstone paid $74 when he charged from the rear to rob Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown in 2004. The following year, Afleet Alex won the Belmont with ease, while second place went to Andromeda's Hero (closing odds essentially 12-1) and third was a maiden, Nolan's Cat, at roughly 21-1. Alex beat them by 7 and 13 3/4, respectively, but they closed from 10th and 11th -- that's next-to-last and last -- to collect $200,000 and $110,000 paychecks.

But doesn't a horse deserve his conditions? Clearly Luv Gov is no Curlin, who burst on the scene with a huge debut effort at 3 and, almost the next thing you know, was finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, winning the Preakness and barely getting nosed out in the Belmont. A horse that took 10 tries to break maiden doesn't usually inspire such confidence.

It isn't like Luv Gov was brilliant in defeat at Pimlico. He wasn't beat by 15 or 20 lengths; only about nine. But he didn't really beat anybody, either. The only horses he finished ahead of were those whose riders didn't persevere with them once they realized the cause was lost. I haven't seen his Beyer from the Preakness, but judging from Rachel's reported 108, and the distance he finished behind her, I'd guesstimate that Luv Gov earned no better than 91. That could be considered progress from his maiden-breaking 87, but not nearly enough in my mind to try a Grade 1 again next out. (Edit: Belmont-contender PPs are now up at DRF; Luv Gov's Beyer for the Preakness was a bit-surprising 94, and in an interesting change, the Beyer for his maiden win was for some reason upgraded from 87 to 94.)

And I think the colt's pedigree is suspect at least to some degree. While his sire won the Travers at a mile and a quarter and was placed in the Belmont, Luv Gov's dam, City of Silver (Nepal-Silver Discovery, by Mr. Prospector) was a modest winner once from five starts, seems bred to sprint, has produced only two foals to race (a Luv Gov half-brother won once from 12 starts) and the only blacktype winner I can see under his second dam is a granddaughter who was a champion filly ... in Puerto Rico.

Still ... again ... somehow ... Lukas and Co. apparently think he has a shot in the Belmont.

"Wayne said he worked real well (since the Preakness) and that we ought to take a chance," John Hendrickson, Whitney's husband, told The Daily Racing Form. "We've gone off at higher than 30-1 before."

And it isn't like Lukas thinks this race is important. Having won it four times -- but not since 2000 -- Lukas recently said "nobody cares about mile and a half horses anymore" in calling for the Belmont to be shortened. So maybe he figures this is as good a place as any for his 1-for-11 charge.

The more I rant about this colt, I suppose, the more likely it is he'll eventually prove me wrong. Or at least the dumber I'll look if he does. And don't misunderstand; I'm not rooting against him. I'm only assessing his chances as any handicapper would before a big race, and I don't think those chances are good. Not to win, anyway.

So why not give the colt his conditions?

Zenyatta's five-race 2009 homestand

Trainer John Shirreffs' announcement Monday that champion mare Zenyatta will be staying home in 2009, thank you, has caused a bit of a stir among those who hoped to see the 5-year-old Street Cry daughter really strut her stuff nationwide, and maybe against the boys, this summer.

It certainly has the cinch of our blogosphere friend Ghostsnapper's saddle a notch too tight.

I'm not inclined to solely blame the Zenyatta camp, namely Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss, because part of the fault lies with the folks whose decision 11 months ago made such a 2009 campaign for Zenyatta too attractive to pass up; that's the Breeders' Cup.

For the first time since the series' inception in 1984, North American racing's biggest, richest weekend is being hosted by the same track -- Santa Anita -- in consecutive years. It means that to defend both her title as top older racemare and her perfect record, presently 10-for-10 after a coasting win in the Milady Handicap, Zenyatta never has to leave her home base of southern California. And that means she gets to stay on synthetic surfaces all summer, where she's a proven monster.

If the Breeders' Cup were planned for anywhere outside of California, it almost certainly would not be staged over a synthetic main track. And that could prompt Shirreffs to take Zenyatta on the road a time or two, in order to keep her familiar with a traditional dirt surface and perhaps to get a race over the specific strip where the 2009 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic would be run.

Says Shirreffs, "With the Breeders' Cup out here, what's the point (of traveling)?"

"When it gets closer to (Breeders' Cup) time," says Shirreffs in May, of the late-October festival, "you don't want to ship around too much. Saratoga is a long way."

To be sure, Shirreffs and Zenyatta's connections are showing no inclination to really test their mare this year. Not only is Shirreffs begging off a trip to America's racing mecca, Saratoga, for a possible date in a Grade 1 race like the Go For Wand at 9 furlongs early in August or the 10-furlong Personal Ensign in the month's waning days. He's also on record as opting out of letting her face Grade 1 males -- even at home in California. And he isn't particularly interested merely in asking Zenyatta if she can stretch her legs for an extra furlong.

"The (Hollywood) Gold Cup is a mile and a quarter," Shirreffs said. "She's never run that far. It would be an ambitious spot and against the boys? Let's make it even harder."

So in a move similar to, say, the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers unilaterally deciding they'll be playing all 16 regular-season games this year at home in Heinz Field, Team Zenyatta will commute to work all year in southern California. In horse racing, they have that right.

And it isn't like Zenyatta won't be running in major races, for big money. The 9-furlong, Grade 1 Vanity Handicap and its $300,000 purse await June 27 at Hollywood Park. A fairly short van ride to Del Mar on Aug. 9 would let Zenyatta punch her timecard in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch, then it's back to Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet for the G1 Lady's Secret Stakes as a prep for the Breeders' Cup.

Now for what this really means: If Rachel Alexandra and her connections want a piece of Zenyatta -- and I suspect they do -- they'll have to come and get her. And that, in my mind, is by design. Zenyatta will be at home, both in her stable arrangements and on the SoCal synthetics. Rachel has won over the fake dirt, but she's made just one of her 10 starts on the stuff, so a matchup at Del Mar or during the Oak Tree meet has to give Zenyatta the home field advantage in every way.

I think Ghostsnapper is right -- this schedule set out by Shirreffs likely sinks any chance Zenyatta had of being horse of the year instead of just champion handicap mare. Voters will want to see her tested, not protected.

Curlin won the title last year (over a perfect Zenyatta) because his connections -- namely Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable, also primary owner of Rachel Alexandra -- weren't scared of anybody, and weren't ashamed of losing in the name of good sport. Curlin crushed 'em in the Dubai World Cup. In a test to see if he might actually try France's storied Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Curlin tried turf in the G1 Man O'War, and it took a Breeders' Cup champion in Red Rocks to beat him. Even his fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- over synthetic at Santa Anita -- was forgiven because of the surface, perhaps, and everything the horse had gone through to get there; he was rewarded for the competitiveness and resolve he'd shown throughout a rigorous, global 4-year-old campaign.

Precisely because Jackson and Stonestreet own Rachel Alexandra, I still think a clash of the distaff titans will happen this summer. Rachel has no perfect record to protect, having lost three times at 2 (before she met Calvin Borel), and Jackson would rather see his filly challenged (witness her Preakness entry), even if she fails, than to see her coast against overmatched competition.

I could be wrong. Trainer Steve Asmussen might plan a conservative 3-year-old campaign for Rachel from now until Breeders' Cup weekend, as well. Grade 1 races against her own gender and age await in Belmont's Mother Goose (9f, June 27) and Coaching Club American Oaks (10f, July 25), and the 10-furlong Alabama at Saratoga on Aug. 22.

She could try G1 older mares (absent Zenyatta) in Saratoga's Go For Wand and Personal Ensign, or Belmont's Ruffian and Beldame. Or she might face colts (and perhaps gelded Derby champ Mine That Bird) again in a race like the Travers. But she doesn't have to in order to win nice races, good money, and additional respect, especially with that Preakness triumph already in her pocket -- a Preakness triumph that, in light of the Zenyatta camp's decision to play it conservative, is looking even more impressive.

Meanwhile, let's hope the Breeders' Cup never again chooses to hold its show at the same venue two years in a row. Not only does that deprive fans of lesser means in other parts of the country of a more affordable opportunity to attend (at a closer venue), but -- especially with California's universal adoption of synthetic surfaces at all major tracks -- it's made the career of Zenyatta an almost exclusively Southern California phenomenon, with only one lifetime start anywhere else. (The 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.)

I'll bet the connections of Lava Man wish the Breeders' Cup would have pulled this stunt during his heyday of unquestioned SoCal dominance.

'Bird flipped-off by another jockey

What's a Derby winner gotta do to keep a jockey?

Mine That Bird -- surprise and impressive winner of the Kentucky Derby and hard-charging runner-up in the Preakness Stakes -- has lost his second rider in as many races. Thoroughbred Times reports that hall-of-famer Mike Smith had to ask off the horse for the June 6 Belmont Stakes due to a prior commitment.

Smith was already confirmed to ride G2 winner Madeo in the Charles Whittingham Memorial H.-G1 at Hollywood Park the same day. Madeo is owned by Jerry and Ann Moss and trained by John Shirreffs, connections of Smith's own Derby-winning mount, Giacomo, and of 2008 champion mare Zenyatta. Smith was or is the regular rider of both.

Just as I couldn't blame Calvin Borel for taking off Mine That Bird to stick with potential champion Rachel Alexandra -- with whom he beat the 'Bird in the Preakness -- it's hard to fault Smith here for not going back on his word to the Mosses and Shirreffs. They consistently give him top horses to ride. He needs to keep his commitments to them and maintain that relationship.

Conversely, as good as Mine That Bird is, who knows when -- if ever -- Double Eagle Stables, Buene Suerte Equine and trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. will have this kind of horse again? And would they be sure to hand the reins to Smith even if they did?

Still, Woolley's reaction is both predictable and understandable.

"It's kinda funny," he said. "You'd think if you get a horse this good, you'd keep (a jockey), but apparently not."

Woolley said he'd close a deal with a new rider in a matter of days, not waiting to see whether Rachel Alexandra is entered in the Belmont. If she isn't, of course, he could try to reunite Mine That Bird with Borel, awkward though that might be. But it sounds like that idea is written-off already or Woolley would stall at least for a few days to see whether Rachel's entry seems likely.

Preakness pre-race points

Just a few quick musings as we near post time for the Preakness.

Kudos to hall-of-famer Gary Stevens for doing some firsthand reporting on Mine That Bird by documenting the horse's height. We keep reading that he's a small horse. Nobody's quantified that.

Stevens did so, measuring Mine That Bird (and Rachel Alexandra) in person, photographs included. The results: Mine That Bird is just 15.1 hands; the filly a big'un at 16.2. ... Size won't win the race for her nor lose it for him, but it's good to finally have that question answered about the Derby winner.

Second observation: In leaving the Preakness barn for the saddling area, Musket Man looked good. ... I mean good. ... And you can still get 12-1 on him!

Third, I can't seem to get through to the Preakness Web site here just minutes before post time. Sure, there should be heavy traffic at this point. But did they not provide the site enough bandwidth or server backbone?

Lastly, I can't say it enough, safe trip to all.

Five reasons why Mine That Bird will win the Preakness

What, you thought I gave the Kentucky Derby winner no chance in Saturday's Preakness Stakes?

1. Bye-bye, Borel: Believe it or not, I don't think Mine That Bird needs Calvin Borel. Though the jockey's ride in the Derby was masterful, the gelding has shown that he can win without him. Mine That Bird has five wins from nine starts, and those victories have come with three different jockeys; Chantal Sutherland is the leader with three. This loss of jockey really could be much ado about nothing when it comes to race-riding at Pimlico. In fact, if what trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and primary owner Mark Allen want from the horse is to be taken back early (done in part by necessity and in part by design in the Derby, to great success), replacement jock Mike Smith is among the best at winning with a deep closer. (Remember Giacomo?) ... Besides, Borel, a 14-percent winner in 2009, is at his best at Churchill. The guy getting the pickup mount is a hall-of-famer winning at 18 percent. How bad a trade is that, really?

2. Rachel Won't Win: I'm not saying that's a surety, I'm just saying that Rachel Alexandra as favorite -- probably heavy favorite -- isn't as sure a thing as the final odds (whatever they might be) are likely to suggest. And not just because she's a filly (though it plays a role; first race against boys, her toughest field ever, etc.). Look what's being asked of her. She's won five straight, and streaks do typically end. She switches barns, from Hal Wiggins, who obviously knew her well, to Steve Asmussen, who (despite, no doubt, talks with Wiggins), hardly knows her at all. Shipped to Pimlico, new stall, new grooms, new regimen. ... Tall order.

3. The Race Sets Up For Him: Another point against Rachel, for starters. She draws the 13-hole, which superstitiously is a negative, and could be practically, as well. A filly who runs up front -- no further than a head off the lead in her five straight wins -- Rachel might have to spend considerable energy early to draw clear and be able to drop over toward the rail to avoid being hung out very wide on the far turn; especially if one of the boys on the inside decides to make it extra-tough on the filly. Meanwhile, 'Bird sits in the 2-hole with fairly fleet Big Drama to his inside, permitting Smith to take back only a little and get right on the rail to save ground. He can sit second or he can sit 12th, it's up to him and his horse. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs here.)

4. Remember His 'Dirty Little Secret?' Well, Forget It: Yesterday I noted Mine That Bird's two efforts over a fast, conventional dirt track have not been nearly good enough to win a Grade 1 race. (They weren't good enough to twin two ungraded stakes races.) A fast strip at Pimlico could be a problem. It also could be a moot point. The Weather Channel's hour-by-hour forecast predicts a 30 percent chance of rain or thunderstorms almost straight through in the 24-plus hours from 6 p.m. Preakness Eve, to the 6:15 Saturday evening post time. And the chance of rain escalates in the forecast to 50 percent shortly after the race, and 60 percent throughout Saturday night. If the track takes on moisture at any time after the Black Eyed Susan card today, and if the heavier or at least more-probable rain comes in just a little earlier than the advance forecast predicts, the field could find itself playing in the Derby champion's birdbath, much to his contentment.

5. David vs. Goliath (or, 'The Birdstone Factor'): In this case, Goliath is a girl, and a talented field she leads, and fate, and the odds, which will still be somewhat stacked against this little gelding, although hardly 50-1 as they were on Derby Day. He's a little guy -- by some reports barely 15 hands -- facing a monumental task. But so was his sire, Birdstone, on the day he stole the Belmont Stakes and a Triple Crown from Smarty Jones at 36-1 odds. Don't doubt for a minute that heart and a spirit can flow from sire and dam to son and daughter, just as surely as more tangible attributes such as color, stature, speed and stamina. Then there are the Preakness myths, of almost biblical proportions, primed for the little hero to overcome. ... "Pimlico is speed-favoring, and the traffic can make it even harder on a closer." He can get through; he's a small horse. ... "But the turns at Pimlico are so tight!" Did you forget he's a small horse? ... "But it is just too big a task." The bigger they come, the harder they fall; eh, Goliath? ... Maybe this 'Bird is just the "David" to do it.

Five reasons why Mine That Bird won't win the Preakness

Can the diminutive Derby dandy pack the same punch at Pimlico's Preakness?

Here are five pretty good reasons why the answer could be "no."

1. Girl Power: Rachel Alexandra is just too good, not just for Mine That Bird, but for all the boys.

2. Beware the Bounce: After running Beyers of 81 and 80 in his prior two races (career highs), 'Bird flew to a 105 in the slop at Churchill. The only thing set up for a bigger bounce would be the kids' new trampoline. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs.)

3. Dirty Little Secret: Mine That Bird has not run well enough over a fast dirt strip to win a Grade 1 race. All four of his wins at age 2 were on the synthetic surface at Woodbine in Canada. His unlikely Derby triumph was in the slop. His only dirt/fast efforts were the aforementioned 81/80 Beyers at Sunland, including fourth beaten almost four lengths in the ungraded Sunland Derby.

4. Borel Bails: No disrespect at all to jockey Calvin Borel; it seems he made the right choice by sticking with a potential champion filly in Rachel Alexandra, with whom he has a five-race win streak. But when the Derby-winning jockey by choice takes off that horse for the Preakness, it can't be a good sign for what he thinks of the horse's chances. O.K., so nobody's ever done it before. Doesn't that prove the point?

5. Trainer Trouble: Has anybody thought that maybe part of the reason Mine That Bird was 50-1 at Churchill wasn't just his lack of a win since October at Woodbine? Or his far-below-par Beyers? Could it maybe have been that his trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., was previously 1-for-34 for 2009? Now that he's 2-for-35, what are the odds he can win two in a row? (Edit: Information elsewhere states that Woolley was 1-for-33 when Mine That Bird won, so he's lost since. Streak broken, new streak to begin?)

How's this for a quick-hitter?

Even after a plot to keep Rachel Alexandra out of the Preakness Stakes fell by the wayside Sunday, the connections of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, owned and trained by men experienced in the improvisational pugilistic arts, remain interesting.

The day after the Birdstone gelding scored at an improbable 50-1, the Anchorage Daily News reported that principal owner Mark Allen of Double Eagle Ranch in New Mexico might have become criminally entangled in Alaska's ongoing public corruption probe, if not for immunity gained as a condition of his father Bill's plea bargain. Certainly that story has now made the rounds fairly well, but as colorful as this group seems to be, it seems that stories not normally told of Derby-winning connections could keep filtering to the top.

Like this: The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, also on the day after the Derby, might have been the first to report that Allen and longtime trainer (and ex-bull rider) Bennie Woolley Jr., first became friends as the result of a bar brawl. It's only a brief reference to the scuffle in a story primarily about the horse -- who, hopefully, will get to be the one in the spotlight ongoing. But it seems that some 25 years ago, Allen fomented fisticuffs in a drinking establishment, Woolley for whatever reason came to his aid, and the two have been buddies since.

The Associated Press sort of wrapped up the coverage of the connections later in the week, including some additional details on the Alaskan bribery probe.

As a small-town Kansas boy with a modest upbringing, I'd like to root for connections that are a little (O.K., a lot) rough around the edges by Triple Crown standards. Married into a rodeo family, I have a fondness for the fellas who congregate behind the chutes. It's a tough crowd, but if you can show 'em you're legit -- particularly that you're interested in and truly know their sport, not just a (ahem) tinhorn assigned to cover the rodeo -- they'll take you in almost as one of their own.

On the other hand, as a journalist by training and trade, tasked with keeping an eye on local government and business for signs of corruption, the bribery mess in Alaska keeps me from jumping on the Allen-Woolley bandwagon.

It does not, however, sour me on the horse. I don't wish him ill, or even particularly a loss. All he knows is he's born to race, and has earned his chance to be the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed by running the race of his life at Churchill.

Hopefully since the plot went poof his connections have turned their thoughts fully to prepping their little fellow for the race. Because while Rachel Alexandra -- and her four-straight Beyer speed figures over 100 -- might be his biggest threat, the Daily Racing Form past performances for potential Preakness contenders show she isn't the only one.

The plot is off: Rachel is in

Thank goodness. I was starting to think Mine That Bird wasn't the only member of his team to have been gelded.

A split-second after publishing a lengthy blog post criticizing the Derby winner's connections for trying to conspire to keep filly Rachel Alexandra out of the Preakness (in cahoots with Ahmed Zayat, breeder/owner of Pioneerof The Nile), Thoroughbred Times now tells us that the fix is off. Mine That Bird's connections, including Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine, have backed away from the idea.

Since Rachel Alexandra, now owned primarily by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, was not an original nominee and must be supplemented to the Triple Crown races (for $100,000), Allen, Zayat and, by some reports, even the venerated horsewoman Marylou Whitney (owner of the sire) seemed bound to keep the filly out by all means necessary. Allen planned to enter a nominated maiden, Indy Express, and Whitney a recent maiden-breaker who is 1-for-10 lifetime in Luv Gov. (Edit: Whitney's camp says they'd only enter Luv Gov if he didn't keep Rachel Alexandra out of the race. But you can't convince me they were ever serious about actually running a 1-for-10 horse in a Grade 1 race.)

Sports Illustrated says Allen, who initially told Thoroughbred Times that he just wanted his jockey back (Calvin Borel took off 'Bird to ride Rachel), eventually decided that shutting the filly out of the race "just ain't right." I'm glad he reached that conclusion, whatever coercion there might have been behind the scenes to achieve that change of heart. (Allen says there was none.)

The only bad thing about Allen and Zayat changing their minds is the reduced impact of the awesome illustration commissioned for the first, fuming blog. At least I still think it's funny.

In the long run, provided Rachel runs sound in the Preakness (regardless whether she wins) this is the best resolution for racing, and even for Mine That Bird. Why risk turning a potential folk hero -- the 50/1 Derby long-shot winner -- into the villain? Now if he wins the Preakness under a different rider (edit: Looks like Mike Smith), most fans will be rooting for the diminutive, gelded son of Birdstone to win a Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes, not against him.

Maybe even me.

Borel owes nothing to anybody, not even an explanation

For a decision that seemed like a relative no-brainer to me, Calvin Borel is catching a little bit of grief -- in the blogosphere anyway -- for choosing to take off Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in order to stick with Rachel Alexandra and likely ride the filly in the Preakness Stakes.

For the life of me, the only two "reasons" I can see motivating Borel's detractors to believe that he should have retained the mount aboard Mine That Bird is some sense of tradition mingled with misguided loyalty ("How can you take off the Derby winner with the Preakness at hand?") or, potentially, something resembling chauvanism.

The latter sentiment would never really make sense, though that doesn't mean there aren't a few observers who believe that picking the male horse is always a shrewder choice. We'll see soon enough whether Mine That Bird and his new rider, as yet unnamed, can finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. (And sure, if the 'Bird wins, Borel looks like a bonehead.)

You could make a better argument for the former if it wasn't apparent that Borel is likely choosing the better horse, and certainly the mount to which he feels a stronger connection and owes greater loyalty.

Calvin Borel has race-ridden Mine That Bird exactly once, in the Kentucky Derby. He did his job to perfection and brought home one of the unlikeliest of victories to the gelding's connections, trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and owners Double Eagle Ranch and Buena Suerte Equine. Borel owes those connections nothing; they were blessed to have one of Churchill's best on their long-shot. He's paid any debt to them in full by winning that race.

Besides, their horse has run eight races in which he wasn't ridden by Calvin Borel. And won four of them, including three stakes races at Woodbine. In fact, those three stakes races were won with Chantal Sutherland in the irons. And wouldn't bringing her in to replace Borel spice up the Preakness? ... Borel takes off the gelding to ride the filly; MTB's connections ask their boy's long-lost ladyfriend, in whose company he had so many great dates, to step back into his life and show Borel what might have been!

Whether it's Chantal Sutherland, who has proven beyond doubt she can pilot this 'Bird to the winner's circle, or somebody else, the Derby winner is going to get a fine jockey in Borel's absence. After all, Mine That Bird is the Kentucky Derby winner. And much as I'm a fan of the man, Borel's brilliance gleams brightest at Churchill; another jockey might serve MTB even better at Pimlico.

Meanwhile, Rachel Alexandra and Borel have their own good thing going. They're undefeated since pairing up five races ago, including three Grade 2 stakes and the G1 Kentucky Oaks. It matters not to me that her connections have changed (read what I think about the sale); not from Borel's perspective, anyway. She has a legitimate shot of winning the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (please call it "Distaff" again!) and a 3-year-old filly Eclipse, or more. You don't take off that sort of filly. You ride your heart out for her until whomever owns her says you can't ride her anymore.

A second undercurrent of negative sentiment in this debate is the belief of some in the blogosphere (or their readers, anyway) that fans would excoriate Woolley and Co. if they were to take Mine That Bird away from Borel and hand him to someone else for the Preakness. Certainly that would be true if Rachel Alexandra were pointed to the Black Eyed Susan instead of toward facing the boys. But it's far-fetched in my mind to think they'd even consider such a thing after the ride Borel gave their horse at Churchill; a ride in which Mine That Bird's career-best Beyer was elevated from an 81 to a 105. And even if they had -- considering Rachel Alexandra is expected in the Preakness -- what would Borel really have lost?

Wouldn't it be sort of like if a hypothetical gent miraculously found himself dating not one, but two former American Idol winners, and Kelly Clarkson up and tells him, "I've found someone new. Carrie Underwood can have you!" Sure, the blessing of abundance was great while it lasted. But how bummed out could he really be?

I still don't see how Borel can be faulted for the choice he's made. He's ridden Rachel Alexandra for five races to one (albeit brilliant ride) for Mine That Bird. She has "champion" written all over her and Mine That Bird still has something left to prove.

Borel's decision really shouldn't need so much explaining. Lucky for Calvin I'm here to save him the energy.

Borel's bet: He chooses filly for the Preakness

So it is confirmed: Rachel Alexandra's new connections, primarily Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, will send the Kentucky Oaks-winning filly to take on the boys in the May 16 Preakness Stakes.

And Calvin Borel, the jockey who pulled off the Oaks-Derby double at Churchill May 1 and 2 has taken off Derby champion Mine That Bird to ride the filly.

It's a good decision for Borel, albeit with some risk. If Rachel Alexandra can beat colts in a Triple Crown race, it will go down as one of the most memorable renewals of the Preakness. And obviously Borel thinks the filly has as much or better chance to win than Mine That Bird, who was a surprise Derby victor (largely due to a spectacular ride by Borel) at 50-1 odds.

If Mine That Bird somehow wins the Preakness -- possible, though he's looking now at being at best third- or fourth-favored in the race (behind Rachel Alexandra, probably Pioneerof The Nile and perhaps a horse like Musket Man) -- then it will be under some other jockey. And that jockey will have a shot at a share of the highly improbable glory when the gelding heads to New York, where his sire, Birdstone, robbed Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown with a late run in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

Good luck to Rachel Alexandra. May she acquit herself well at Pimlico, and most importantly, may everyone come home safe and sound.