Mine That Bird: Sizzle or fizzle in Firecracker?

With one big change already behind him, former Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird takes another leap in his racing career Sunday as he makes his 2010 debut (after considerable layoff) in Sunday's Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs -- a switch to the turf.

In May, the 4-year-old's connections moved him from the barn of Chip Wooley -- who trained him for the second-biggest upset in Derby history and to credible performances in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes -- turning him over to Hall-of-Famer D. Wayne Lukas. The Birdstone gelding hasn't raced since an also-ran finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic in November, and a mile and a sixteenth Churchill allowance failed to fill for him recently. So Lukas, feeling the horse needs a race, decided to take a crack at the G2 Firecracker.

And for some reason, the horse has been highweighted at 122 pounds, and installed as the 3/1 morning-line favorite for the race. I just don't see it.

For starters, few horses are ready to fire their best shot after seven months on the shelf. I realize his status as a Grade 1 winner forces the racing secretary's hand a bit in setting the weights. But in this case, a horse who hasn't won since last May and is completely unproven on grass is giving up to eight pounds to everyone else in the field -- nine if also-eligible Baryishnikov draws in. And it isn't like he's made a huge class drop into a restricted stakes; the Firecracker is still a Grade 2 event.

I don't particularly like Mine That Bird's pedigree for the grass, either.

It isn't that his ancestors have been hopeless on the surface. His sire's second dam, Hush Dear (Silent Screen-You All, by Nashua) twice won both the Long Island and Diana handicaps, Grade 2 events, on the lawn. But in his first two seasons at stud, Birdstone's get's average Ragozin figure on dirt (20 3/4) is rather better than their turf figures (22); and neither is as impressive as I'd have expected considering the sire's stakes success among his young. Speaking of that stakes success by Birdstone's get, virtually none of it has been on turf. And Birdstone's sire, Grindstone, a Kentucky Derby winner now banished to Oregon, hasn't particularly been known for getting grass horses at stud.

On the bottom side, Mine That Bird's dam, Mining My Own, is by Smart Strike, who can certainly get a turf horse (grass champion English Channel, etc.). And she's out of a Vice Regent mare in Aspenelle, which doesn't eliminate the notion of turf. But Mining My Own never raced, so we don't know what her particularly affinities might have been in competition. And her one blacktype sibling, Golden Sunray, was a stakes winner on dirt.

Then there's the difficulty of facing the rest of a 14-horse field with plenty of tough turf competition.

Morning-line second choice Tizdejavu (4/1) has three prior graded wins on grass, earned six of his seven lifetime victories on turf, and has annexed at least three blacktype races over this very Churchill course, once already this season, during which he's 2-for-2. Why he isn't favored and why he's getting three pounds from Mine That Bird at 119 is hard for me to explain, though imposts are hardly my specialty.

Inca King (6/1) has at least three Churchill turf stakes wins in his long and successful career. Euroears (also 6/1) has experienced most of his success on dirt, but does have a turf-sprint stakes win. Co-8/1-choices Public Speaker and Attempted Humor have credible turf form on which to draw; the former a grass stakes winner and the latter never off the board on the lawn in five tries. Longer-shot Skipadate (12/1) broke maiden on grass, was a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf entrant in 2009 (11th place) and has two recent allowance wins on grass.

Sheesh, 20/1 shots include Orthodox, a G3 turf winner at Churchill who only carries 114 Sunday under journeyman Jon Court, and British-bred Driving Snow, a minor grass stakes winner in the States and the only horse ever to defeat sublime European champion Sea the Stars, as 2-year-old maidens in the U.K.

Which begs the question, could Lukas have possibly picked a more difficult comeback race for a horse he's been asked to turn completely around?

I can't say I'd be completely blown away by news that Mine That Bird won the Firecracker. But I suspect the best he can come out of this race with is a learning experience -- both for horse and connections, to see if turf is ever again in his future -- and hopefully an outing that sparks a successful second half to 2010.

Bye bye, busted Bird

I was really hoping for a comeback by Summer Bird, but The Blood-Horse reports that the 2009 Belmont Stakes, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner has been retired, unable to return from suffering a hairline fracture last fall while training for the Japan Cup Dirt.

While Mine That Bird won "the big one," the Kentucky Derby, and was a 2-year-old champion in Canada in 2008, it seemed clear that the bird with highest altitude potential was Summer Bird. His Belmont win was impressive. And while he got run off his feet by Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational, he couldn't have bounced back any better than his Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup victories. He was the first horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to pull off that particular triple. Plus, his fourth-place finish behind Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- Summer Bird's first-ever run over synthetic -- suggested he was talented and versatile enough to perhaps do great things at 4.

Then came the trip to Japan.

I can't fault his breeders and owners, Drs. K.K. and Vilasini "Devi" Jayaraman, for taking such an ambitious shot. The colt seemed up to it. And they were riding high on an outstanding season that had already cemented a 3-year-old championship for their homebred son of Birdstone.

"We've been in racing for 30 years and he gave us our greatest thrills, especially when he won the Belmont Stakes," said K.K. Jayaraman. "He was just a pleasure to be around, and because of him we met a lot of wonderful people. It was a great year, and he took us to places we would never have gone."

The Blood-Horse reports that the Jayaramans would drive to all of Summer Bird's race. I assume they'd have taken a plane to Japan, but that race just wasn't to be.

Upon returning to the States and having surgery to repair his broken cannon bone, Summer Bird (after some rest) went back into training, this time with Tim Ritchey, instead of Tim Ice, who had trained him to the championship season. But after some work with Ritchey, new x-rays determined Summer Bird's leg had not healed enough to withstand the rigors of training and racing. So, he is retired with four wins from just nine starts (which makes me a bit nervous as he heads to stud at an undetermined farm) for $2,323,040.

In his Blood-Horse story, Steve Haskin calls Summer Bird "a throwback to a time when horses were fast, tough and could run all day."

I can agree on two points with Summer Bird; he was pretty fast and could run pretty far by today's standards. Unfortunately, nine starts doesn't particularly suggest "tough."

I hope he gets plenty of very sound mares, and some with stamina of their own. Please don't try to breed Summer Bird to sprinting females in order to get fleeter foals; you'll just as likely end up with a horse that fares poorly at any distance. Not enough speed to sprint, nor enough stamina to route. But, bred to milers and and classic-bred mares, Summer Bird might follow his surprisingly effective young sire in getting a few classic winners of his own.

Let's just hope his get, can get more than nine trips around the yard.

Bird flies coop, leaving Borel behind

Mark Allen, primary owner of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, has told the Daily Racing Form that he and the horse's trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., have taken the mount away from jockey Calvin Borel.

The Churchill Downs-based rider effectively won the horse and his connections the Derby by conserving the horse's energy and making the jockey's patented move up the inside fence in the late-going, a style of riding that has earned Borel the nickname "Bo-Rail." But after taking off the horse to ride filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness -- winning that race, relegating Mine That Bird to second, and ending the Birdstone gelding's Triple Crown hopes -- Borel was back on the horse for the Belmont Stakes, and was criticized by a number of observers, including Woolley, for a ride in which the jockey likely moved the horse too soon.

Mine That Bird was beaten in the Belmont by another Birdstone son, Summer Bird.

Allen told DRF that he and Woolley were not yet ready to name a new rider, but Borel wouldn't be the person aboard Mine That Bird when the gelding makes his expected return to the races in the Aug. 1, $750,000 West Virginia Derby-G2 at Mountaineer Park.

To a degree, I suppose, a little turnabout is fair play. Borel had to make a choice between MTB and the filly for the Preakness, and beyond a doubt made the right one at the time. He's paid for it since by regaining -- and now losing -- Mine That Bird, and by learning that Rachel's ownership group, primarily Jess Jackson of Stonestreet Stable, claim they will not run her on racing's biggest weekend, the Breeders' Cup this fall at Santa Anita. Jackson does not want the filly running on a synthetic track, even though she's won a race over such a surface as a 2-year-old.

Now, Allen says, Borel was hedging on whether he would ride Mine That Bird in West Virginia, or take the mount on Warrior's Reward in the Jim Dandy S.-G2 at Saratoga. If Borel was uncertain which horse to take in that case, it was his mistake. Warrior's Reward might be a very good colt, but as of now he's a Grade 3-placed runner with five lifetime starts who is pointed toward a $500,000 race.

While Borel is tabbed to ride Warrior's Reward (who beat Barbaro's brother Nicanor in a maiden race) in the Dwyer Stakes on the Fourth of July, I find it hard to believe Borel would consider keeping that mount over a Derby winner who placed in all three Triple Crown races and is pointed toward a $750,000 race, from which the jockey's winnings would be 50 percent more than if his horse won the Jim Dandy.

"I'm not going to bad-mouth Calvin or Jerry (Hissam, Borel's agent) because they've done me a lot of good. Heck, they won the Derby for me," said Allen. "But I'm not going to let them hang us out the way they did before the Preakness, waiting until the last minute to tell us we needed another rider."

Speaking in terms with which Allen is certainly familiar, I have to call bullshit on his claims of Borel "hanging them out ... until the last minute" with his choice of Rachel Alexandra for the Preakness. Once Jess Jackson owned her and pointed her toward that race, Borel made his definitive choice almost immediately. I blogged that he'd made the right choice on June 8, and that's a week and a day before the big race at Pimlico; hardly short notice.

But, Allen and Woolley have the right to put any jock they want on their horse, and unless the West Virginia Derby draws up way tougher than I'm expecting, Mine That Bird will be the heavy -- if not short-priced -- favorite to win.

So whoever that guy (or gal) to get the mount happens to be, should count himself lucky.

Premature emasculation: Passing judgment too soon on the stud career of Ten Most Wanted

A friend pointed me toward an interesting 2009 analysis of stallions prepared by Jason Hall for his site The American Thoroughbred Review. Included were "best values" and "worst values" at various price points in the stallion market.

Hall and I actually have a few things in common. He's self-described as "a lifelong student of bloodstock topics," as an "active owner and breeder," and he has a degree in journalism from Boise State University. Certainly our lives have parallels.

And I agree with his assessment of several stallions on the list. Slew City Slew isn't just among the best values at $5,000 or below; I think he's one of the better values even when considering stallions two or three times his price. Macho Uno deserves all the kudos Hall gives him and more at $25,000. And I share both his fondness for Rahy at a price I'll likely never be able to pay ($50,000) and disdain for Golden Missile at $7,500. (Read my take on Golden Missile in this blog post on the sale of the stallion Badge.)

But Hall was just unfortunately, unfairly and prematurely cruel in his assessment of one horse on the list: Ten Most Wanted.

It's clear the Grade 1-winning son of Deputy Commander is rapidly falling out of favor, whether or not Hall likes him. Ten Most Wanted (pedigree) started out at Gainesway in Kentucky (2005-06), was shuffled off to Buffalo (or the same state anyway) and stood at Sequel Stallions in New York for 2007-08, and now has been cast off to the West, where he's in residence at Magali Farms in Santa Ynez, Calif., priced at $5,000 for 2009.

A stallion doesn't make the KY-NY-CA circuit so quickly if there isn't some sort of trouble with him, though there could be any number of reasons -- including but not limited to owner finances, finicky partners, crooked foals, he's a bad actor in the shed, or he's simply not appearing very "commercial," particularly by committing the cardinal sin of modern thoroughbred breeding by siring foals that aren't precocious.

I fear, and Hall's assessment suggests, that it's the latter.

I don't know when Hall wrote his piece. It must have been quite early this season; probably a preview. His numbers regarding Ten Most Wanted -- who was only working on his first crop to race in 2008 -- merit some updating.

Hall knocks Ten Most Wanted as having: "Possibly the worst start we've ever seen in a young sire. Just 2 winners from 41 starters with median earnings of $1,200. Progeny are winning at an unheard of pace: 1%. Gelding this guy would be a great start at curbing overproduction."

Since that time, much has happened for Ten Most Wanted and his get. As of this writing, there are now 25 winners by Ten Most Wanted -- still just 42 percent of his 59 raced foals, but clearly and rapidly climbing. Their wins per start are still not overwhelming, but at 8 percent, are eight times what they were when Hall tore into their sophomore sire.

Of 118 foals of racing age, just 59 have raced, for exactly 50 percent. His progeny average earnings are just $10,598 for an Average Earnings Index of 0.73 vs. a Comparable Index for his mares of 1.31. There have been two stakes-placers, but no stakes winners.

But we are talking about a sophomore sire here, and one whose own career and pedigree merits much more in-depth consideration before dangling his chestnuts in front of a veterinarian's scalpel.

Ten Most Wanted did not race at all until he was 3. He had a splendid season, winning the "summer derby," the Travers S.-G1 at Saratoga, plus the Illinois Derby-G2 and Super Derby-G2. Two of those wins, the Travers and Super Derby, were encores of races won by his sire, Deputy Commander, who likewise did not race at 2, though his own sire, Deputy Minister, won eight of nine as a juvenile to become Canada's horse of the year.

Ten Most Wanted won a Grade 3 race at 4, but he made just two starts.

On the bottom half of his pedigree, Ten Most Wanted is out of the mare Wanted Again, who was a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Cutlass Reality. Her sire was Criminal Type, who was a winner at 2 and eventually champion older horse at 5, but who had never so much as placed in a stakes race until his championship season. In fact, her outstanding half-brother Cutlass Reality also won at 2 but did not win a stakes race until he was 4, and was not a Grade 1 winner until taking both the Hollywood Gold Cup and the Californian Stakes when he was 6. Her half-brother Land At War raced and won until he was 8; half-brother Pistoleer didn't start until he was 3, then posted seasons of 24, 25, 22 and 21 starts, eventually retiring with 96 calls to post.

So Ten Most Wanted was not a "forward" colt, waiting to race until he was 3, just like his sire. He was out of a mare who was half to a late-blooming Grade 1 talent and to brothers who ran on and on; and, she was by a horse who did not earn blacktype until he was 5. Ten Most Wanted predictably then was a classic-distance horse who never placed in a stakes race shorter than a mile and a sixteenth and who was a credible second to Empire Maker in the Belmont Stakes at a mile and a half.

Exactly what the hell sort of 2-year-old was Jason Hall -- or anyone else, for that matter -- expecting from the first crop of Ten Most Wanted?

Some of my agitation over this one stallion's treatment no doubt comes from the last line, in which Hall suggests gelding him to "curb overproduction." Considering it's the mare who has the uterus -- and who would almost certainly be presented to some other sire, anyway -- I'm not sure how gelding one stallion would in any way address "overproduction." The mares that a gelded Ten Most Wanted could no longer serve might produce better foals with some other sire (although a crop and a half for Ten Most Wanted is a poor time to make that case), but they aren't likely to produce any fewer foals.

But it's more than that.

I don't like to see a stallion written off so early. And I especially don't care to hastily push one into gradually "lesser" racing states -- or even out of the States and into some foreign market -- when he's a potential source of the stamina that American breeding sorely lacks, and comes from a female family with some history of very durable runners.

No, not all distance horses are also "backward" in their development, nor are they all tardy to show their worth as a stallion. Birdstone, a Grade 1 winner at 2, like Ten Most Wanted has two crops of racing age, and he already has a pair of classic winners from his first crop in Mine That Bird (Kentucky Derby) and Summer Bird (Belmont Stakes).

But in the time since Jason Hall wrote that Ten Most Wanted should be gelded to spare the breed his genes, the stallion's get have managed to improve their sire's progeny earnings enough that he presently stands 21st on the list of top 150 second-crop sires according to Stallionregister.com. (Note: Those stats aren't as up-to-date as some of the individual numbers I'm citing.)

Now, 21st is hardly top-shelf, but he's ahead of more expensive sires not only in Champali (22nd, $7,500) and Strong Hope (24th, $15,000), both of whom Hall likewise pans, but also in Read the Footnotes (26th, $7,500), Spanish Steps (29th, $10,000), Roar of the Tiger (31st, $6,000), Tenpins (33rd, $6,500), Action This Day (36th, $10,000), Seattle Fitz (41st, $8,500), Perfect Soul (44th, $15,000) and Burning Roma (58th, $7,500), all of whom escape Hall's criticism entirely.

Class aside (though admittedly class does matter), Ten Most Wanted's 25 winners are but three fewer among sophomore sires than Smarty Jones (fee now listed as "private," but was $100,000) and the little-big-horse Birdstone ($10,000, who was missed as a "value" by Hall), they are just one fewer winner than Pleasantly Perfect ($15,000), and they amount to five more winners than the get of Johar, who stands for $10,000 and has 174 foals of racing age to Ten Most Wanted's 118.

Whatever the subject -- "used car best-bets," Top 10 quarterbacks of all time, the Top 99 women of 2009 -- rankings or lists always create controversy. Almost every nitwit (my hand is raised) can find some point with which to quarrel. By the same token, those lists often merit reconsideration in retrospect. ... Surely Hall would consider Birdstone a top value now, a few short months later, reason enough that such a list probaby shouldn't include sophomore sires.

I was just taken aback by the severity with which Hall phrased his criticisms of Ten Most Wanted, particularly considering how early in the young stallion's career that criticism was leveled.

So I figured I'd stand up for the fellow -- and his family jewels.

Mine That Bird's next flight: Almost Heaven

Trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. has revealed the schedule for Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Mine That Bird, and it's a little bit off the typical beaten path for Grade 1 winners.

They're going to Disney World! ... No, wait. To West Virginia.

Woolley says Mine That Bird's next start will be in the West Virginia Derby-G2, to be run Aug. 1 at Mountaineer Park.

The West Virginia Derby is growing in stature, and Mine That Bird's entry could be the ultimate proof. The race has achieved Grade 2 status this year after several seasons as a Grade 3. The ascent is a bit amazing considering the race wasn't run at all from 1991-1997 and is staged at a track that is generally regarded as part of racing's second tier. But there's no quibbling with the purse: $750,000.

It's just that there are other alternatives that horsemen would usually prefer on that first weekend in August. Summer Bird, the "other son of Birdstone" who upset Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes, is pointed to the Aug. 2 Haskell Invitational H.-G1 at Monmouth Park, according to trainer Tim Ice. Like the WV Derby, the Haskell is run at 9 furlongs. But it's a Grade 1 and carries an extra $250K in purse money; $1 million total.

And Charitable Man, who came in fourth with a less-than-stellar trip in the Belmont, will, according to his trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, likely race next in the Aug. 1 Jim Dandy S.-G2 at Saratoga. Another 9-furlong event, and a Grade 2 like the West Virginia Derby, the Jim Dandy is an historic stakes run at America's mecca of summer horse racing, but it does carry the lowest purse of the three at $500,000.

Leave it to Woolley and owners Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine to take the road less-traveled. Or maybe just to take the road instead of a plane. Mine That Bird is presently back in Kentucky, and if Woolley is going to haul him around in a trailer behind his big pickup truck, the way they got from New Mexico's Sunland Park to Churchill Downs, then Mountaineer is closer than either Monmouth or Saratoga.

Somehow I doubt that was their reasoning.

It seems all three of the aforementioned horses, health willing, are destined for the Travers S.-G1 at the end of the Saratoga meet on Aug. 29. But all are taking different routes to get there. And despite its Grade 2 status and $750,000 purse, Mine That Bird's is the more obscure.

That isn't to say good horses haven't been in the race of late. Multiple G2-winner Zanjero defeated G3-winner Bwana Bull in the 2007 renewal. Eventual multi-millionaire Magna Graduate came in second to millionaire Real Dandy in 2005. Other winners in the past decade have included Sir Shackleton, Soto and Wiseman's Ferry; runners-up have been the likes of Pollard's Vision, Dynever and the ill-fated Florida Derby-G1 winner Hal's Hope.

I'm certain that Mountaineer Park is thrilled with the news that America's plucky little hero, Mine That Bird, will be in its marquee race. Maybe even with Calvin Borel aboard. And at least the Travers is shaping up to be a potential clash of 3-year-old titans as each tries to stamp his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

Unless the $125,000 Mountaineer Mile Handicap on the same day is just too tempting.

Overbrook dispersal will rev up 2009 sales

Overbrook Farm, home to former half-million-dollar stallion Storm Cat and one of the key players in the United States thoroughbred market for three decades, will disperse all its stock in the coming months, according to Blood-Horse.com.

That should really jazz up the sales while giving buyers a rare chance to pick up nice breeding stock at something resembling recession-era prices. And when a major operation divests itself of the herd, it can shift the balance of power in the industry or even change the face of the breed as lines that once were somewhat unique to one family's breeding plans play a round of musical chairs and find new homes in other bloodstock programs.

"The retirement of Storm Cat ended a phenomenal era at Overbrook," said Bill Young Jr., whose father, William Young Sr., founded Overbrook and made it what it is today. "The dispersal will give buyers a unique opportunity to purchase (horses from) families that previously have not been available commercially."

Bill Young said he was ending the business because he wasn't interested in continuing.

"Over a period of more than 30 years, my father developed Overbrook Farm into one of the most successful and respected breeding operations in the world," he said. "The decision to disperse is a personal one. ... I simply don't have the same passion for the thoroughbred sport that my father did ..."

Too bad the Young family didn't know I was available for adoption.

Among the stock seeking new homes are three stallions: Kentucky Derby champion Grindstone (sire of Birdstone; grandsire of 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird); A.P. Indy son Jump Start; the accomplished Cape Town (sire of champion Bird Town, half-sister to Birdstone); and a value-priced ($3,500) Mr. Prospector son of note, and half-brother to Storm Cat, Pioneering.

Some 200 other horses will be sold, including an estimated 75 broodmares, about 50 each of weanlings and yearlings, and 20 to 30 horses of racing age, though Bill Young said that his son, Chris, intended keep a few horses in a small family racing stable.

The dispersal, under direction of agent Eaton Sales, will begin at Keeneland's September yearling sale. Weanlings, broodmares and racing-age stock will be sold at the November breeding stock sale. Any remaining horses will likely be entered in the 2010 Keeneland January sale for horses of all ages.

Time to start saving those pennies ...

The last word on Luv Gov, I promise ... until ...

With the Belmont Stakes in the books, it's time to close a chapter in my life as a fledgling blogger: My obsession with Luv Gov.

The 3-year-old Ten Most Wanted colt ran the second-biggest race of his life Saturday -- first-biggest (if that's a term) if you don't consider winning or placing to be all that important. He came home fifth in the Belmont, and that's worth $30,000.

I first became aware of the Marylou Whitney-owned colt when his name surfaced amid the plot to block Rachel Alexandra from the Preakness. While Ahmed Zayat claimed he'd been told Whitney would enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Birdstone), ostensibly by protecting Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird from the girl, the Whitney camp insisted they wouldn't enter Luv Gov in the Preakness if he was, in effect, the last colt in the gate, thus blocking the supplementally nominated filly. I wrote that I found it hard to believe that Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas were serious about entering a colt who took 10 tries to break maiden into a Grade 1 race for his next start, and they might (I hoped) even scratch him before post time. But they proved they were at least serious enough (or under scrutiny enough) to run him and he straggled home eighth at Pimlico.

I subsequently asked if, please, we couldn't get Luv Gov some NW2L competition for his next out. Clearly not among my blog's six followers, Whitney and Lukas didn't listen to the advice, and brought the colt to the Belmont Stakes. My sensibilities offended, I stated my discontent, in part comedically, but in part sincere.

Nevertheless, on Saturday at Belmont, Luv Gov again rallied past the expended and this time, got up for fifth. That's the last of the real checks; everybody after his $30K just got a flat $4,000. Equibase even gave him a 100 speed figure (page 2 of chart), which is a bit of a head-scratcher for me, considering the winner, Summer Bird, garnered a 112 and finished 10 1/2 lengths ahead of our subject colt. I suspect the Beyers for all will be a smidge lower than the Equibase figures, and that the discrepancy between the winner and fifth place might be a little wider than 12 points.

As my headline's vague caveat suggests, I might not be able to ignore Luv Gov forever. Now that the colt has galloped his way into my consciousness, I'll need to keep an eye out for him in the future. After all, there's news to be made. He's now earned $92,896; when will he break $100,000? And where will he turn up next?

A class-drop is probably in order. I mean, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes is coming right up Aug. 1 at Saratoga.

Birdstone can't stay out of his own way

The Belmont Stakes is in the books and the little 'Bird that could, 50-1 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and his "Jockey Triple Crown" hopeful rider, Calvin Borel, are knocked down two pegs by another bird, Summer Bird.

That's right, the Derby long-shot son of Birdstone (who stole Smarty Jones' Triple Crown in the 2004 Belmont) loses the Belmont himself to another of his sire's sons, at a wee bit of a price ($25.80 to win).

In the end, Mine That Bird finished third behind Dunkirk, who nearly got taken down after some troubles in the stretch with Charitable Man. With a DQ, it would've been a Birdstone-double.

Criticism already is falling on Borel for perhaps moving too soon with Mine That Bird. I actually said it during the race to co-workers who were watching with me.

"It's too early," I said. "I'm afraid it's too early."

Mine That Bird was keen to go down the back stretch and Borel had to let him. But it was winner Kent Desormeaux, with his own Belmont shortcomings, who earlier in the week, called Borel "naive" for approaching the Belmont with confidence despite having no real experience over the track. Race-riding at Belmont is like nowhere else. Unlike most tracks, where the finish line is relatively near when the horses straighten out for home off the final turn, at Belmont, there are still some 1,100 feet left to run.

Mine That Bird had the lead when they straightened out, but having already come from the back -- and this time the long way around, on the outside -- maybe he didn't have enough left to finish like he needed. He was beaten not only by the fellow Birdstone-sired closer, but by Dunkirk, who had done all the work on the front end, but stayed on the rail in doing it.

I won't kick Borel while he's (comparatively) down, though. He's a great race-rider and we wouldn't even know Mine That Bird if Bo-Rail hadn't made one of the greatest moves in Derby history on the first Saturday in May, 2009. The Belmont Stakes has humbled more famous jockeys than he. And he still has the mount on the great filly of 2009, Rachel Alexandra.

I do wonder whether Bennie Woolley Jr. will keep Borel aboard Mine That Bird, though. Even Woolley -- though he said he'd "pat him on the back" when he saw Borel post-race -- was telling Janine Edwards after the race that the jock had moved too soon.

Final thought: How great a start to a stallion career is Birdstone having? A Derby win and a Belmont win in his first crop, and they weren't won by the same horse. And, Kentucky Oaks-G1 runner-up Stone Legacy, Tempted S.-G3 winner Livin Lovin, and multiple-stakes winner Texas Birdstone. ... That deserves a "wow."

Not Luv Gov again!

Why won't Luv Gov leave us in peace?

The Ten Most Wanted colt who I said had no business in the Preakness -- and who pretty much ran like it, placing eighth -- has officially been pointed to the Belmont Stakes. He might win and make me look the fool, but I say he doesn't belong there, either.

Luv Gov broke his maiden (at 10th asking, a term you don't hear that often about Grade 1 stakes horses) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. His name first cropped up as a Preakness entry amid the subterfuge intended to keep eventual winner Rachel Alexandra out of the race. Ahmed Zayat, owner of Pioneerof The Nile, said Marylou Whitney planned to enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Belmont winner Birdstone, sire of Derby winner Mine That Bird) and the only colt to emerge from Whitney's string with Preakness intentions was Luv Gov. (The Whitney camp issued a blanket denial of a role in any conspiracy.)

Either Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas are actually every bit as confident in this horse's ability as they say -- they were quoted as entering the Preakness feeling he "(had) a legitimate chance," also not something you hear often from the camp a 1-for-10 horse entered in a Grade 1 classic -- or else they're taking this charade two steps too far.

I just don't see how this entry adds up. Other than the truly special athletes, a horse deserves his conditions; in this case, the right to face non-winners of two when he himself has not yet won twice in his life.

Luv Gov took 10 races to break maiden. He did so impressively, closing from deep in the pack to draw off and win by 6 1/2 lengths going a mile and a sixteenth in the slop, for an 87 Beyer. But running off from maidens by 6 1/2 is a far cry from announcing your Grade 1 status unless perhaps you're a first-out 2-year-old.

The colt is improving. He had only one decent Beyer at age 2, a 73 in finishing third behind the ill-fated Stormalory in a Polytrack route at Keeneland. His other juvenile efforts earned Beyers of 39, 27, 49, 37 and (after the 73) a 30. (See his full pre-Preakness PPs here.)

He progressed considerably for Lukas after a layoff from November 2008 to March 2009, when he returned at Oaklawn Park. He was second there in two straight maiden special weight efforts, with Beyers of 83 and a regressive 74, then ran well again over Keeneland's synthetic surface in a place finish from his third 3-year-old start. Then the win at Churchill.

But an instant jump to Grade 1 races?

The Belmont actually makes more sense than the Preakness, I suppose. Whitney's a New Yorker and probably wants to see one of her horses in the show. And we've seen several seemingly overmatched horses -- particularly deep closers -- get up for a piece of the action at the end of the arduous 12 furlongs. Whitney's own Birdstone paid $74 when he charged from the rear to rob Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown in 2004. The following year, Afleet Alex won the Belmont with ease, while second place went to Andromeda's Hero (closing odds essentially 12-1) and third was a maiden, Nolan's Cat, at roughly 21-1. Alex beat them by 7 and 13 3/4, respectively, but they closed from 10th and 11th -- that's next-to-last and last -- to collect $200,000 and $110,000 paychecks.

But doesn't a horse deserve his conditions? Clearly Luv Gov is no Curlin, who burst on the scene with a huge debut effort at 3 and, almost the next thing you know, was finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, winning the Preakness and barely getting nosed out in the Belmont. A horse that took 10 tries to break maiden doesn't usually inspire such confidence.

It isn't like Luv Gov was brilliant in defeat at Pimlico. He wasn't beat by 15 or 20 lengths; only about nine. But he didn't really beat anybody, either. The only horses he finished ahead of were those whose riders didn't persevere with them once they realized the cause was lost. I haven't seen his Beyer from the Preakness, but judging from Rachel's reported 108, and the distance he finished behind her, I'd guesstimate that Luv Gov earned no better than 91. That could be considered progress from his maiden-breaking 87, but not nearly enough in my mind to try a Grade 1 again next out. (Edit: Belmont-contender PPs are now up at DRF; Luv Gov's Beyer for the Preakness was a bit-surprising 94, and in an interesting change, the Beyer for his maiden win was for some reason upgraded from 87 to 94.)

And I think the colt's pedigree is suspect at least to some degree. While his sire won the Travers at a mile and a quarter and was placed in the Belmont, Luv Gov's dam, City of Silver (Nepal-Silver Discovery, by Mr. Prospector) was a modest winner once from five starts, seems bred to sprint, has produced only two foals to race (a Luv Gov half-brother won once from 12 starts) and the only blacktype winner I can see under his second dam is a granddaughter who was a champion filly ... in Puerto Rico.

Still ... again ... somehow ... Lukas and Co. apparently think he has a shot in the Belmont.

"Wayne said he worked real well (since the Preakness) and that we ought to take a chance," John Hendrickson, Whitney's husband, told The Daily Racing Form. "We've gone off at higher than 30-1 before."

And it isn't like Lukas thinks this race is important. Having won it four times -- but not since 2000 -- Lukas recently said "nobody cares about mile and a half horses anymore" in calling for the Belmont to be shortened. So maybe he figures this is as good a place as any for his 1-for-11 charge.

The more I rant about this colt, I suppose, the more likely it is he'll eventually prove me wrong. Or at least the dumber I'll look if he does. And don't misunderstand; I'm not rooting against him. I'm only assessing his chances as any handicapper would before a big race, and I don't think those chances are good. Not to win, anyway.

So why not give the colt his conditions?

Does the "D" stand for "Duh?"

Steve Haskin of The Blood-Horse has taken to task trainer D. Wayne Lukas for the conditioner's daft suggestion that the Triple Crown race distances be changed, most notably the Belmont Stakes at a mile and a half.

"Nobody cares about mile and a half horses anymore," said Lukas in The New York Post. "The living proof is that every Belmont winner winds up in Italy, Puerto Rico, you name it. They don't stand in Lexington. I've had four Belmont winners and I don't know where the hell they are."

For starters, has Lukas (duh) slept through the 2009 Triple Crown series? It was a Belmont winner -- Kentucky-based stallion Birdstone -- that has sired a Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness-placer, Mine That Bird, from his first crop.

Haskin lists for Lukas several Belmont winners who (duh) stand in Kentucky, usually for serious coin, including Lemon Drop Kid and Empire Maker. (Edit: And top equine author Avalyn Hunter notes Lukas has apparently also forgotten about two-time leading sire, A.P. Indy, one I certainly also should have mentioned.)

And, to help refresh the trainer's memory of his own horses, Lukas-trained Belmont winner Thunder Gulch stands at Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky. (13.62 miles from Lexington per Mapquest, should Mr. Lukas care to visit) and among many great ones has sired Preakness/Belmont winner and Horse of the Year Point Given. Lukas also won the Belmont with Tabasco Cat, who sired G1 miler Island Sand and multiple G1 juvenile Habibti among other fine Kentucky-bred runners before being sent to Japan (where horse racing I'd daresay is more respected than in the States). Lukas' other Belmont winners, Editor's Note and Commendable, both began stud careers in Kentucky before being sent to Argentina and South Korea, respectively.

You know, D. Wayne Lukas started out racing Quarter Horses and has risen to tie the legendary Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons in Triple Crown wins with 13. But considering what he thinks of distance horses, sometimes I wonder how a Lukas horse ever won a race longer than 350 yards.

Blogger's note: This series of posts is the output you get when I've been gone 24 hours.

Preakness, post-race, post-slumber

A collection of musings spilling forth after a night to sleep on how Rachel Alexandra won the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

Rachel Alexandra is as good as advertised. Mine That Bird proved to me he was better than I thought. Probably much better. Barring traffic problems that forced Mike Smith to swing him seven wide, he might have gotten up in time.


So, as some fans feared, Rachel Alexandra might have "stolen" our chance at the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Of course you never know how the race would have turned out with one fewer horse -- the winner, particularly. But if Rachel hadn't taken the Preakness from him, Mine That Bird, who came home second and full of run, might have had a very legit shot at a Triple Crown. He's sure looked like the only horse in the two races thus far who has handled 9.5f and 10f like he wanted even more ground. Of course, if "ifs and buts" were candy and nuts, then every day would be Christmas. (Or as Aussie bull rider Troy Dunn once quipped to me during a post-rodeo interview, "Yeah, and if me auntie had balls, she'd be me uncle.")

And thus, is Mark Allen now regretting his decision that prompted him to say it "ain't right" keeping Rachel out of the race by entering nominated-but-undeserving colts to protect Mine That Bird?

Reading the Preakness chart, I don't know that I've ever seen so many horses with evidence of troubled trips. The order of finish behind Rachel, with "trouble" notes as applicable: Mine That Bird (std'd 1/4, 7w); Musket Man (std'd rail 1/4); Flying Private (steadied early and 1/4); Big Drama(fractious gate, bobbled); Papa Clem; Terrain (run btw, in tight 3/16); Luv Gov (angled 8wd); General Quarters (shuffl early, std'd 1/8); Friesan Fire (bobbled st); Pioneerof The Nile (5wd btw); Tone It Down; Take The Points (6wd to far turn). ... Does this mean nine of 13 exit the race with some sort of excuse?

I love Calvin Borel. I love his enthusiasm. I love how "down to earth" he is. (Though with his upbringing, how could he not be?) I love that all he wants from life is to be around and to ride these horses; how that gives him unbridled joy; how it seems that he finds something to appreciate about every horse he meets, every one is "a good horse"; and how with him, they get better. Cheers, Calvin. May this run through the Oaks, Derby, Preakness and beyond make you one of the most in-demand riders in racing.

What now of the Belmont Stakes? If Mine That Bird comes out of the Preakness well and good, no doubt he should go. He'll be a favorite, if not the favorite, even if Rachel runs. Maybe she didn't like the Pimlico surface that much, or maybe she just hadn't been tested so hard before, but it appeared she was beginning to labor at the end of the Preakness; or at least wasn't as good as him at the end. She didn't look like a filly that would be comfortable at 12 furlongs. But her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, placed in the Belmont (to Sarava), so maybe. It would sure make the race worth watching, a "gender wars" rivalry between these two. But I don't want her going there if it's bad or wrong for her, and I'm not sure it wouldn't be wrong for her. ... Which leads us back to, "So, as some fans feared, Rachel Alexandra might have 'stolen' our first chance for a Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978."

If that's the case, it wouldn't be the first time. Most notable is 1968, when Forward Pass had won both the Derby (edit: by DQ) and Preakness. Then: Cue Stage Door Johnny. ... Having not competed in either prior Triple Crown race, he exited stage left with the Belmont trophy, relegating Forward Pass to second place and robbing him of marquee billing among racing's historic leading men.

And then there was Birdstone, sire of Mine That Bird. He did compete in the 2004 Derby, albeit well-beaten by Smarty Jones. Smarty took the Preakness handily while Birdstone rested and prepped for the Belmont. There, as we all recall, a Triple Crown again was denied, with a devastating late kick by a slightly smallish horse -- a stature and running style passed down from sire to son; a son whose shot at the crown was denied Saturday in Baltimore. ... The Racing Gods giveth, and they taketh away.

Five reasons why Mine That Bird will win the Preakness

What, you thought I gave the Kentucky Derby winner no chance in Saturday's Preakness Stakes?

1. Bye-bye, Borel: Believe it or not, I don't think Mine That Bird needs Calvin Borel. Though the jockey's ride in the Derby was masterful, the gelding has shown that he can win without him. Mine That Bird has five wins from nine starts, and those victories have come with three different jockeys; Chantal Sutherland is the leader with three. This loss of jockey really could be much ado about nothing when it comes to race-riding at Pimlico. In fact, if what trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and primary owner Mark Allen want from the horse is to be taken back early (done in part by necessity and in part by design in the Derby, to great success), replacement jock Mike Smith is among the best at winning with a deep closer. (Remember Giacomo?) ... Besides, Borel, a 14-percent winner in 2009, is at his best at Churchill. The guy getting the pickup mount is a hall-of-famer winning at 18 percent. How bad a trade is that, really?

2. Rachel Won't Win: I'm not saying that's a surety, I'm just saying that Rachel Alexandra as favorite -- probably heavy favorite -- isn't as sure a thing as the final odds (whatever they might be) are likely to suggest. And not just because she's a filly (though it plays a role; first race against boys, her toughest field ever, etc.). Look what's being asked of her. She's won five straight, and streaks do typically end. She switches barns, from Hal Wiggins, who obviously knew her well, to Steve Asmussen, who (despite, no doubt, talks with Wiggins), hardly knows her at all. Shipped to Pimlico, new stall, new grooms, new regimen. ... Tall order.

3. The Race Sets Up For Him: Another point against Rachel, for starters. She draws the 13-hole, which superstitiously is a negative, and could be practically, as well. A filly who runs up front -- no further than a head off the lead in her five straight wins -- Rachel might have to spend considerable energy early to draw clear and be able to drop over toward the rail to avoid being hung out very wide on the far turn; especially if one of the boys on the inside decides to make it extra-tough on the filly. Meanwhile, 'Bird sits in the 2-hole with fairly fleet Big Drama to his inside, permitting Smith to take back only a little and get right on the rail to save ground. He can sit second or he can sit 12th, it's up to him and his horse. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs here.)

4. Remember His 'Dirty Little Secret?' Well, Forget It: Yesterday I noted Mine That Bird's two efforts over a fast, conventional dirt track have not been nearly good enough to win a Grade 1 race. (They weren't good enough to twin two ungraded stakes races.) A fast strip at Pimlico could be a problem. It also could be a moot point. The Weather Channel's hour-by-hour forecast predicts a 30 percent chance of rain or thunderstorms almost straight through in the 24-plus hours from 6 p.m. Preakness Eve, to the 6:15 Saturday evening post time. And the chance of rain escalates in the forecast to 50 percent shortly after the race, and 60 percent throughout Saturday night. If the track takes on moisture at any time after the Black Eyed Susan card today, and if the heavier or at least more-probable rain comes in just a little earlier than the advance forecast predicts, the field could find itself playing in the Derby champion's birdbath, much to his contentment.

5. David vs. Goliath (or, 'The Birdstone Factor'): In this case, Goliath is a girl, and a talented field she leads, and fate, and the odds, which will still be somewhat stacked against this little gelding, although hardly 50-1 as they were on Derby Day. He's a little guy -- by some reports barely 15 hands -- facing a monumental task. But so was his sire, Birdstone, on the day he stole the Belmont Stakes and a Triple Crown from Smarty Jones at 36-1 odds. Don't doubt for a minute that heart and a spirit can flow from sire and dam to son and daughter, just as surely as more tangible attributes such as color, stature, speed and stamina. Then there are the Preakness myths, of almost biblical proportions, primed for the little hero to overcome. ... "Pimlico is speed-favoring, and the traffic can make it even harder on a closer." He can get through; he's a small horse. ... "But the turns at Pimlico are so tight!" Did you forget he's a small horse? ... "But it is just too big a task." The bigger they come, the harder they fall; eh, Goliath? ... Maybe this 'Bird is just the "David" to do it.

How's this for a quick-hitter?

Even after a plot to keep Rachel Alexandra out of the Preakness Stakes fell by the wayside Sunday, the connections of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, owned and trained by men experienced in the improvisational pugilistic arts, remain interesting.

The day after the Birdstone gelding scored at an improbable 50-1, the Anchorage Daily News reported that principal owner Mark Allen of Double Eagle Ranch in New Mexico might have become criminally entangled in Alaska's ongoing public corruption probe, if not for immunity gained as a condition of his father Bill's plea bargain. Certainly that story has now made the rounds fairly well, but as colorful as this group seems to be, it seems that stories not normally told of Derby-winning connections could keep filtering to the top.

Like this: The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, also on the day after the Derby, might have been the first to report that Allen and longtime trainer (and ex-bull rider) Bennie Woolley Jr., first became friends as the result of a bar brawl. It's only a brief reference to the scuffle in a story primarily about the horse -- who, hopefully, will get to be the one in the spotlight ongoing. But it seems that some 25 years ago, Allen fomented fisticuffs in a drinking establishment, Woolley for whatever reason came to his aid, and the two have been buddies since.

The Associated Press sort of wrapped up the coverage of the connections later in the week, including some additional details on the Alaskan bribery probe.

As a small-town Kansas boy with a modest upbringing, I'd like to root for connections that are a little (O.K., a lot) rough around the edges by Triple Crown standards. Married into a rodeo family, I have a fondness for the fellas who congregate behind the chutes. It's a tough crowd, but if you can show 'em you're legit -- particularly that you're interested in and truly know their sport, not just a (ahem) tinhorn assigned to cover the rodeo -- they'll take you in almost as one of their own.

On the other hand, as a journalist by training and trade, tasked with keeping an eye on local government and business for signs of corruption, the bribery mess in Alaska keeps me from jumping on the Allen-Woolley bandwagon.

It does not, however, sour me on the horse. I don't wish him ill, or even particularly a loss. All he knows is he's born to race, and has earned his chance to be the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed by running the race of his life at Churchill.

Hopefully since the plot went poof his connections have turned their thoughts fully to prepping their little fellow for the race. Because while Rachel Alexandra -- and her four-straight Beyer speed figures over 100 -- might be his biggest threat, the Daily Racing Form past performances for potential Preakness contenders show she isn't the only one.

The plot is off: Rachel is in

Thank goodness. I was starting to think Mine That Bird wasn't the only member of his team to have been gelded.

A split-second after publishing a lengthy blog post criticizing the Derby winner's connections for trying to conspire to keep filly Rachel Alexandra out of the Preakness (in cahoots with Ahmed Zayat, breeder/owner of Pioneerof The Nile), Thoroughbred Times now tells us that the fix is off. Mine That Bird's connections, including Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine, have backed away from the idea.

Since Rachel Alexandra, now owned primarily by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, was not an original nominee and must be supplemented to the Triple Crown races (for $100,000), Allen, Zayat and, by some reports, even the venerated horsewoman Marylou Whitney (owner of the sire) seemed bound to keep the filly out by all means necessary. Allen planned to enter a nominated maiden, Indy Express, and Whitney a recent maiden-breaker who is 1-for-10 lifetime in Luv Gov. (Edit: Whitney's camp says they'd only enter Luv Gov if he didn't keep Rachel Alexandra out of the race. But you can't convince me they were ever serious about actually running a 1-for-10 horse in a Grade 1 race.)

Sports Illustrated says Allen, who initially told Thoroughbred Times that he just wanted his jockey back (Calvin Borel took off 'Bird to ride Rachel), eventually decided that shutting the filly out of the race "just ain't right." I'm glad he reached that conclusion, whatever coercion there might have been behind the scenes to achieve that change of heart. (Allen says there was none.)

The only bad thing about Allen and Zayat changing their minds is the reduced impact of the awesome illustration commissioned for the first, fuming blog. At least I still think it's funny.

In the long run, provided Rachel runs sound in the Preakness (regardless whether she wins) this is the best resolution for racing, and even for Mine That Bird. Why risk turning a potential folk hero -- the 50/1 Derby long-shot winner -- into the villain? Now if he wins the Preakness under a different rider (edit: Looks like Mike Smith), most fans will be rooting for the diminutive, gelded son of Birdstone to win a Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes, not against him.

Maybe even me.

Borel's bet: He chooses filly for the Preakness

So it is confirmed: Rachel Alexandra's new connections, primarily Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, will send the Kentucky Oaks-winning filly to take on the boys in the May 16 Preakness Stakes.

And Calvin Borel, the jockey who pulled off the Oaks-Derby double at Churchill May 1 and 2 has taken off Derby champion Mine That Bird to ride the filly.

It's a good decision for Borel, albeit with some risk. If Rachel Alexandra can beat colts in a Triple Crown race, it will go down as one of the most memorable renewals of the Preakness. And obviously Borel thinks the filly has as much or better chance to win than Mine That Bird, who was a surprise Derby victor (largely due to a spectacular ride by Borel) at 50-1 odds.

If Mine That Bird somehow wins the Preakness -- possible, though he's looking now at being at best third- or fourth-favored in the race (behind Rachel Alexandra, probably Pioneerof The Nile and perhaps a horse like Musket Man) -- then it will be under some other jockey. And that jockey will have a shot at a share of the highly improbable glory when the gelding heads to New York, where his sire, Birdstone, robbed Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown with a late run in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

Good luck to Rachel Alexandra. May she acquit herself well at Pimlico, and most importantly, may everyone come home safe and sound.