Thoughts on pedigree: Recency trumps 'ancient' history

A discussion in which I arrived late over at a Yahoo group I frequent -- that is, tb_breeding_theory -- finally piqued my interest this holiday weekend.

What is our obsession -- and by "our," I mean some pedigree enthusiasts -- with far-distant relatives in a horse's lineage?

My thoughts are prompted by a discussion about Nasrullah, which broadened to include other sires, including Hermit, and their influences on the breed, particularly negative traits including the perpetuation of bleeders, "roarers" (a breathing malady) and general unsoundness.

I find "deep-pedigree" research to be intriguing. In fact, I am pleased to know that my mare, Bushes Victory, is from the female line that produced both Seabiscuit and Equipoise. (All descend from British-born reine de course Ballantrae, born 1899.) But though that knowledge is quite interesting to me, it's virtually insignificant in determining whether "Tory" will produce good runners herself, no matter to whom she is mated.

To put it more directly, in my opinion the biggest factor in producing a successful racehorse is to ask of the lines being crossed, "What have you done for racing lately?"

An unraced mare from a family of modest to poor siblings, coupled with a marginal sire, is likely to produce a marginal racehorse, at best. It matters not that the foal is a great-great-grandson of Storm Cat out of a granddaughter of Mr. Prospector, or that he carries eight lines to a prepotent sire like Princequillo.

I suppose it's the same philosophy as the well-known husbandry adage: "Breed the best to the best and hope for the best."

In the Yahoo-group discussion, British turf journalist and author Tony Morris took up for Hermit, who another member noted had been criticized by author Richard Ulbrich as a "provable source of vascular weakness in the modern TB."

"Hermit was champion sire seven times," Morris wrote. "I don't think that would have happened if he habitually passed on his bleeding problem. I don't dispute the idea that the problem has been noted in some of his descendants, but I have to believe that Hermit is in every pedigree, generally many times over. It's not worth thinking about now."

And, almost unequivocally, I agree.

Certainly the traits of any living example are the product of his ancestors. But trying to attribute a specific flaw in today's horse to a stallion born 145 years ago is like playing pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey, in the dark, in the Louisiana Superdome.

Granted, the more lines to a certain ancestor that a modern-day descendant carries, the more likely it is that the current animal's identifiable traits, good or bad, can be attributed to the heavily represented ancestor who displayed the same. But each additional line contributes to that likelihood in tiny increments. And it would be foolish to consider oneself certain in pinning a 21st century flaw on a 19th century sire, particularly when it's so much easier and far more direct to just look at the horse's most recent ancestors.

As I wrote in my concurrence with Mr. Morris -- a supporting statement with which I suspect he's wholly unimpressed: "If the sire, dam and their sires and dams were not notorious bleeders, or roarers, or unsound, then it's likely the foal will not be, either, regardless how many lines of Hermit (or whatever other ancestor) that foal might be carrying. And if he is a bleeder, roarer or unsound, you could blame the flaw on anything or nothing with equal accuracy."

Indeed it is interesting -- and some experts are paid quite well -- to dig deep into pedigrees, touting mares as being from the female family of La Troienne, or carrying X-number of crosses to Hyperion. But the further-off that blood becomes, the less likely it is to bear any real significance on the prospective foal.

I do believe in the process of inbreeding as a means of enriching for qualities the breeder wants to see in a foal. (Be careful, for inbreeding also enriches for the negative traits that ancestor might have possessed.) But if that inbreeding doesn't take place in the first four, or five -- at most six or seven generations, and in that case heavily, perhaps with a half-dozen or more crosses -- I believe that the influence of that repeated ancestor on the current foal is more wishful thinking than reliable husbandry.

Farewell, Lawyer Ron, the breed needed you

Just a short note on the sad news today that Lawyer Ron, a splendid 3-year-old and record-setting winner of the Whitney H.-G1 at 4, was put down Friday at Stonewall Farms near Versailles, Ky., due to complications from colic surgery.

Lawyer Ron was only 6 years old and was completing his second year at stud. The farm says foal-owners were high on his babies; of course it remains to be seen if they'll run.

But their daddy could.

He was a mile stakes winner at Evangeline Downs at 2, then won the Risen Star S.-G3 at Fair Grounds and swept the Oaklawn Park Derby-preps (Southwest S., Rebel S.-G3, Arkansas Derby-G2) before falling short in the Kentucky Derby itself. At 4, in addition to his Whitney record, he also won the Woodward S.-G1, and finished second to Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1.

Of equal importance to me as a breeder and a pedigree enthusiast is that Lawyer Ron was among the sounder examples of the brilliant Danzig line. A son of Canadian champion Langfuhr, an under-appreciated sire who ran 23 times himself, Lawyer Ron made 26 lifetime starts, essentially double the average established by Danzig's own sons and daughters. It was my hope that he could carry on the talent of Danzig's line with a greater degree of durability than some from that line (i.e., Big Brown) have shown.

Lawyer Ron was also a bit more old-school in his breeding on his dam's side (out of a Lord Avie mare whose dam was by Grey Dawn's G1-winning son Mr. Redoy; third dam by Rambunctious). And he was a valuable outcross for Mr. Prospector.

So it's terribly sad to see Lawyer Ron go -- a talented, brave runner on the track, and a potentially valuable addition to the breeding community whose true and full influence on the breed now can never be known.

Overbrook dispersal will rev up 2009 sales

Overbrook Farm, home to former half-million-dollar stallion Storm Cat and one of the key players in the United States thoroughbred market for three decades, will disperse all its stock in the coming months, according to Blood-Horse.com.

That should really jazz up the sales while giving buyers a rare chance to pick up nice breeding stock at something resembling recession-era prices. And when a major operation divests itself of the herd, it can shift the balance of power in the industry or even change the face of the breed as lines that once were somewhat unique to one family's breeding plans play a round of musical chairs and find new homes in other bloodstock programs.

"The retirement of Storm Cat ended a phenomenal era at Overbrook," said Bill Young Jr., whose father, William Young Sr., founded Overbrook and made it what it is today. "The dispersal will give buyers a unique opportunity to purchase (horses from) families that previously have not been available commercially."

Bill Young said he was ending the business because he wasn't interested in continuing.

"Over a period of more than 30 years, my father developed Overbrook Farm into one of the most successful and respected breeding operations in the world," he said. "The decision to disperse is a personal one. ... I simply don't have the same passion for the thoroughbred sport that my father did ..."

Too bad the Young family didn't know I was available for adoption.

Among the stock seeking new homes are three stallions: Kentucky Derby champion Grindstone (sire of Birdstone; grandsire of 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird); A.P. Indy son Jump Start; the accomplished Cape Town (sire of champion Bird Town, half-sister to Birdstone); and a value-priced ($3,500) Mr. Prospector son of note, and half-brother to Storm Cat, Pioneering.

Some 200 other horses will be sold, including an estimated 75 broodmares, about 50 each of weanlings and yearlings, and 20 to 30 horses of racing age, though Bill Young said that his son, Chris, intended keep a few horses in a small family racing stable.

The dispersal, under direction of agent Eaton Sales, will begin at Keeneland's September yearling sale. Weanlings, broodmares and racing-age stock will be sold at the November breeding stock sale. Any remaining horses will likely be entered in the 2010 Keeneland January sale for horses of all ages.

Time to start saving those pennies ...