So long, Eskendereya; hope you're bred to soundness

For the second straight season, a runaway winner of the Wood Memorial has approached Kentucky Derby Day as the likely favorite in the race, and been scratched before the Run for the Roses due to injury.

And with word of the retirement of this year's stunner of a scratch, it's possible we'll never see either of them race again. (Although last year's defector, I Want Revenge, just this morning posted a published work at Aqueduct; 3f in :38.25.)

Zayat Stables has announced that Eskendereya, victor in a runaway Wood, is through with racing due to the soft-tissue injury that kept him out of the Derby. Owner Ahmed Zayat says he will retain a significant ownership stake in the horse in a partnership with Jess Jackson, billionaire owner of Stonestreet Stables and Horses of the Year Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.

Zayat said that he and Jackson "will work to develop the best progeny for American racing."

Word of advice, Messrs Zayat and Jackson: A program to breed "the best progeny for American racing" really should endeavor to eliminate the trend of the fleet-but-fleeting, six-race superhorse.

In other words, as stallions, 4-for-6 Eskendereya, "not so much;" 11-for-16 Curlin, closer to a "yes," though his own sire raced but eight times and his dam not at all.

I understand that the current market will greet Eskendereya with open arms, just as it has eight-race wonder Empire Maker (who stands for $50,000 this year), sire of Zayat's own 10-race G1 winner Pioneerof The Nile, who didn't race past the Preakness his 3-year-old year. It shouldn't, but it will.

At the very least, I beg of you -- all of you, not just these men of abundant wealth, but anyone who is mating sire to dam in hopes of a racehorse -- give more than passing thought to soundness.

We've apparently spent the last several generations of thoroughbred breeding so focused on horses who'll breeze a 10-flat eighth at a 2-year-old sale to bring top-dollar -- and hopefully win a few graded stakes on their way to a post in one of those 20 starting gates at Churchill on the first day of each May -- such that now many of the fastest aren't even holding together long enough to reach the targeted race, let alone competing at age 4 and beyond.

Empire Maker raced eight times and Pioneerof The Nile's dam, Star of Goshen, only five; her dam just six. It could be argued that Pioneerof The Nile exceeded expectations by reaching double-digits in starts.

Lava Man went to post 47 times. With Slew City Slew (42 starts) and Li'l Miss Leonard (18 races) as his parents, it makes perfect sense. (And while Lava Man's second dam, Pink Native, was unraced, her sire Be a Native, raced 42 times, and her dam, Pink Khal, answered the call to post on 57 occasions.)

So please present Eskendereya nothing but mares from lineages that demonstrated rock-solid soundness. Mares who ran a couple-dozen times themselves, and who have siblings that totaled starts in the 40s or 50s. Or hundreds.

I just checked the stats. Empire Maker from his first three crops has 66 percent starters from all foals (not a particularly high number, but not atrocious). Yet their average number of starts per runner for Empire Maker's 190 foals to race: 6.5. Even accounting for the fact that a third of his runners just turned 3 and have had little chance, that simply isn't good enough. For example, fellow fourth-crop sire Macho Uno has a band of runners who are the same age as Empire Maker's, yet their number of starts average 9.2, a disparity I suspect will widen rather than narrow as these stallions' records develop over the next decade or more.

A fast horse is a thing of wonder.

Fast and fragile is not in the best interest of the horse, nor of racing's future. And there should be no wondering about that.

Pioneerof the Nile at career terminus: 'Twas a short trip

Ahmed Zayat's Pioneerof The Nile, winner of four straight graded-stakes before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby to Mine That Bird, has been retired due to a "soft tissue injury."

The injury wasn't fully described; only referenced as "a little filling in his leg" discovered by trainer Bob Baffert and staff.

The Blood-Horse -- in another notorious "edited press release" -- apparently is accepting Zayat Sables' labeling of the horse as "one of the top colts of his generation." ... Do they mean "crop?" Because that at least have a chance of being true.

In fact, because The Blood-Horse apparently isn't bothering to temper anyone's editorial commentary in their self-promotional press-releases, there's all sorts of gushing about Pioneerof The Nile in the "story."

It's said that jockey Garrett Gomez chose Pioneerof The Nile over $3.7 million yearling Dunkirk for the Kentucky Derby "as a demonstration of the respect (Pioneerof The Nile) commanded." ... But wouldn't a jockey be an idiot not to take the multiple-graded-stakes winner over a horse that had only cleared the maiden and allowance ranks, Dunkirk's placing in the Florida Derby notwithstanding?

The "story" fawns over the horse's combination of stamina and speed. And Baffert, according to Zayat, was "100 percent convinced that (Pioneerof The Nile) was going to win the Breeders' Cup Classic."

Good for them. I'm not 100 percent convinced of much of anything, including whether any horse will be sound and fit enough to race on Breeders' Cup weekend (theirs won't be), let alone win the biggest race on the card.

I'm not necessarily knocking Pioneerof The Nile, although I won't fawn over him, either. He was a talented horse who won half of his 10 lifetime starts and more than $1.6 million.

But I will go on record that 10 starts doesn't impress me. And his sire, Empire Maker, made all of eight before retiring unsound as a 3-year-old and not making it to the Breeders' Cup Classic. (Though Bobby Frankel called him the "best horse I have ever trained.") And while I hate to point fingers, here's the Unbridled line again, which also includes the aforementioned Dunkirk (by Unbridled's Song) who likewise is presently on the shelf due to injury.

"Thank God I'll get to see his progeny," says Zayat.

Well, for eight or 10 races, anyway.

The last word on Luv Gov, I promise ... until ...

With the Belmont Stakes in the books, it's time to close a chapter in my life as a fledgling blogger: My obsession with Luv Gov.

The 3-year-old Ten Most Wanted colt ran the second-biggest race of his life Saturday -- first-biggest (if that's a term) if you don't consider winning or placing to be all that important. He came home fifth in the Belmont, and that's worth $30,000.

I first became aware of the Marylou Whitney-owned colt when his name surfaced amid the plot to block Rachel Alexandra from the Preakness. While Ahmed Zayat claimed he'd been told Whitney would enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Birdstone), ostensibly by protecting Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird from the girl, the Whitney camp insisted they wouldn't enter Luv Gov in the Preakness if he was, in effect, the last colt in the gate, thus blocking the supplementally nominated filly. I wrote that I found it hard to believe that Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas were serious about entering a colt who took 10 tries to break maiden into a Grade 1 race for his next start, and they might (I hoped) even scratch him before post time. But they proved they were at least serious enough (or under scrutiny enough) to run him and he straggled home eighth at Pimlico.

I subsequently asked if, please, we couldn't get Luv Gov some NW2L competition for his next out. Clearly not among my blog's six followers, Whitney and Lukas didn't listen to the advice, and brought the colt to the Belmont Stakes. My sensibilities offended, I stated my discontent, in part comedically, but in part sincere.

Nevertheless, on Saturday at Belmont, Luv Gov again rallied past the expended and this time, got up for fifth. That's the last of the real checks; everybody after his $30K just got a flat $4,000. Equibase even gave him a 100 speed figure (page 2 of chart), which is a bit of a head-scratcher for me, considering the winner, Summer Bird, garnered a 112 and finished 10 1/2 lengths ahead of our subject colt. I suspect the Beyers for all will be a smidge lower than the Equibase figures, and that the discrepancy between the winner and fifth place might be a little wider than 12 points.

As my headline's vague caveat suggests, I might not be able to ignore Luv Gov forever. Now that the colt has galloped his way into my consciousness, I'll need to keep an eye out for him in the future. After all, there's news to be made. He's now earned $92,896; when will he break $100,000? And where will he turn up next?

A class-drop is probably in order. I mean, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes is coming right up Aug. 1 at Saratoga.

As Rachel waits, Derby winner dangles

Here we are, less than a week from the Belmont Stakes draw, with no commitment made from the Rachel Alexandra camp about whether the phenomenal filly will be present for a rematch with Derby winner Mine That Bird, whom she bested in the Preakness.

The Blood-Horse's Steve Haskin muses about why that might be, and speculates -- I think correctly -- that Rachel's connections, including Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable, have to be at least 90 percent certain by now about what they're going to do. But Haskin notes that Jackson has given conflicting signals, including statements that they'd know by last Monday whether Rachel was ready; now we'll know by this coming Monday, which for a mid-week draw and Saturday race is pretty much go-time.

Haskin writes that a decision on Monday is cutting it awfully close, and "leaves the NYRA marketing department up the proverbial creek without a paddle."

There's somebody else Jackson has left in a holding pattern: Mine That Bird.

By now I'm leaning heavily toward the notion that Rachel Alexandra won't run in the Belmont Stakes. My desire for a rematch aside, I think if she were my filly I wouldn't consider it the right spot for her.

Rachel opting out would leave her regular rider, Calvin Borel, free to reclaim the mount aboard Mine That Bird, a job he gave up when both horses were entered in the Preakness. Mike Smith rode Mine That Bird to second in that race, but has taken off the horse to stay out west next weekend and ride Madeo, a Jerry and Ann Moss horse, in the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham Memorial at Hollywood Park the same afternoon. Mine That Bird's trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., has decided he'll wait and see whether Borel is available, and that means waiting out Jackson's decision on Rachel's Belmont future. Borel has even worked Woolley's horse in the interim.

I think Jackson might be tickled to make them sweat. After all, Mine That Bird's owner, Mark Allen, stuck Jackson and Co. in the sauna for a day when he, Ahmed Zayat and perhaps others gave serious consideration to blocking Rachel Alexandra from the Preakness by entering enough nominated, but undeserving, colts. All Jackson could do was dab at his brow for hours, until the Derby winner's connections and Zayat publicly changed their minds.

The Belmont-decision delay might just be Jackson's chance at a little turnabout. You made me wait and see whether my horse would run at Pimlico; I'll make you wait and see whether you get your jockey back for Belmont.

If so, that's the stuff good rivalries are made of.

Not Luv Gov again!

Why won't Luv Gov leave us in peace?

The Ten Most Wanted colt who I said had no business in the Preakness -- and who pretty much ran like it, placing eighth -- has officially been pointed to the Belmont Stakes. He might win and make me look the fool, but I say he doesn't belong there, either.

Luv Gov broke his maiden (at 10th asking, a term you don't hear that often about Grade 1 stakes horses) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. His name first cropped up as a Preakness entry amid the subterfuge intended to keep eventual winner Rachel Alexandra out of the race. Ahmed Zayat, owner of Pioneerof The Nile, said Marylou Whitney planned to enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Belmont winner Birdstone, sire of Derby winner Mine That Bird) and the only colt to emerge from Whitney's string with Preakness intentions was Luv Gov. (The Whitney camp issued a blanket denial of a role in any conspiracy.)

Either Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas are actually every bit as confident in this horse's ability as they say -- they were quoted as entering the Preakness feeling he "(had) a legitimate chance," also not something you hear often from the camp a 1-for-10 horse entered in a Grade 1 classic -- or else they're taking this charade two steps too far.

I just don't see how this entry adds up. Other than the truly special athletes, a horse deserves his conditions; in this case, the right to face non-winners of two when he himself has not yet won twice in his life.

Luv Gov took 10 races to break maiden. He did so impressively, closing from deep in the pack to draw off and win by 6 1/2 lengths going a mile and a sixteenth in the slop, for an 87 Beyer. But running off from maidens by 6 1/2 is a far cry from announcing your Grade 1 status unless perhaps you're a first-out 2-year-old.

The colt is improving. He had only one decent Beyer at age 2, a 73 in finishing third behind the ill-fated Stormalory in a Polytrack route at Keeneland. His other juvenile efforts earned Beyers of 39, 27, 49, 37 and (after the 73) a 30. (See his full pre-Preakness PPs here.)

He progressed considerably for Lukas after a layoff from November 2008 to March 2009, when he returned at Oaklawn Park. He was second there in two straight maiden special weight efforts, with Beyers of 83 and a regressive 74, then ran well again over Keeneland's synthetic surface in a place finish from his third 3-year-old start. Then the win at Churchill.

But an instant jump to Grade 1 races?

The Belmont actually makes more sense than the Preakness, I suppose. Whitney's a New Yorker and probably wants to see one of her horses in the show. And we've seen several seemingly overmatched horses -- particularly deep closers -- get up for a piece of the action at the end of the arduous 12 furlongs. Whitney's own Birdstone paid $74 when he charged from the rear to rob Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown in 2004. The following year, Afleet Alex won the Belmont with ease, while second place went to Andromeda's Hero (closing odds essentially 12-1) and third was a maiden, Nolan's Cat, at roughly 21-1. Alex beat them by 7 and 13 3/4, respectively, but they closed from 10th and 11th -- that's next-to-last and last -- to collect $200,000 and $110,000 paychecks.

But doesn't a horse deserve his conditions? Clearly Luv Gov is no Curlin, who burst on the scene with a huge debut effort at 3 and, almost the next thing you know, was finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, winning the Preakness and barely getting nosed out in the Belmont. A horse that took 10 tries to break maiden doesn't usually inspire such confidence.

It isn't like Luv Gov was brilliant in defeat at Pimlico. He wasn't beat by 15 or 20 lengths; only about nine. But he didn't really beat anybody, either. The only horses he finished ahead of were those whose riders didn't persevere with them once they realized the cause was lost. I haven't seen his Beyer from the Preakness, but judging from Rachel's reported 108, and the distance he finished behind her, I'd guesstimate that Luv Gov earned no better than 91. That could be considered progress from his maiden-breaking 87, but not nearly enough in my mind to try a Grade 1 again next out. (Edit: Belmont-contender PPs are now up at DRF; Luv Gov's Beyer for the Preakness was a bit-surprising 94, and in an interesting change, the Beyer for his maiden win was for some reason upgraded from 87 to 94.)

And I think the colt's pedigree is suspect at least to some degree. While his sire won the Travers at a mile and a quarter and was placed in the Belmont, Luv Gov's dam, City of Silver (Nepal-Silver Discovery, by Mr. Prospector) was a modest winner once from five starts, seems bred to sprint, has produced only two foals to race (a Luv Gov half-brother won once from 12 starts) and the only blacktype winner I can see under his second dam is a granddaughter who was a champion filly ... in Puerto Rico.

Still ... again ... somehow ... Lukas and Co. apparently think he has a shot in the Belmont.

"Wayne said he worked real well (since the Preakness) and that we ought to take a chance," John Hendrickson, Whitney's husband, told The Daily Racing Form. "We've gone off at higher than 30-1 before."

And it isn't like Lukas thinks this race is important. Having won it four times -- but not since 2000 -- Lukas recently said "nobody cares about mile and a half horses anymore" in calling for the Belmont to be shortened. So maybe he figures this is as good a place as any for his 1-for-11 charge.

The more I rant about this colt, I suppose, the more likely it is he'll eventually prove me wrong. Or at least the dumber I'll look if he does. And don't misunderstand; I'm not rooting against him. I'm only assessing his chances as any handicapper would before a big race, and I don't think those chances are good. Not to win, anyway.

So why not give the colt his conditions?