Could he be that unlucky?

I'm Preakness-bound within the next couple of hours, so today I'll see in person whether 2-year-old champ Lookin at Lucky could possibly racing under brutally unfortunate circumstances yet again.

Contrary to his name, Lookin at Lucky has had the ill fate to suffer nothing but horrible trips dating back to his Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up finish last November. In the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, he had the bad luck to draw the rail (from which no horse has won since Ferdinand in 1986), was beaten around and shuffled back on the first trip past the stands at Churchill, and yet somehow managed to be full of run in the homestretch to finish sixth.

The misfortune eventually resulted in Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert, deciding on a rider change, just to shake things up. Garrett Gomez is off to ride Dublin for D. Wayne Lukas, replaced by Martin Garcia. And maybe "Go Go" took that bad mojo with him -- Lukas' Dublin drew the far outside Post 12 for the Preakness. Lookin at Lucky and Garcia will break from the seven-hole, right next to their biggest adversary, Kentucky Derby winners Super Saver and Calvin Borel.

Whatever happens, it looks like I'll have a very good view. More about that post-race.

Un-'Lucky' Gomez travels to Dublin for Preakness

You gotta love Bob Baffert. Whether or not you like the way he trains a racehorse (and there are some fans who don't seem to like the way anybody trains a racehorse), he's at least a great and usually frank interview.

Baffert on Saturday responded to the constant questions from media about whether 2-year-old champ Lookin At Lucky will run a week from today in the Preakness with the most specific response a trainer could give. In a manner of speaking.

"We're at 52 percent today," Baffert wisecracked.

That 48 percent unknown is accompanied by the uncertainty of a rider change should Lucky compete at Pimlico. Jockey Garrett Gomez is off the horse, and Baffert has not decided who will ride if Lucky races in the Preakness.

Gomez rode Lucky to his championship -- and through an unbroken series of horrible trips that began in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and continued all the way through Derby Day, when Lucky had the misfortune of drawing the rail. Baffert criticized Gomez's ride in the Santa Anita Derby, when Lookin At Lucky was knocked around, but still finished third. Still, the trainer later said the jock would not be fired from the mount.

But today, Gomez's agent, Ron Anderson, said the rider had been told a jockey change was forthcoming -- just in an effort to revivify Lucky's fortunes -- so Anderson scrambled up a Preakness mount for Gomez aboard Dublin for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

"I told Ron I didn't know if I was gonna run the horse (at Pimlico), but if I did I was going to make a chance only because of the bad luck we've been having lately," Baffert told The Blood-Horse. "Just out of respect, I said, 'If you can find another mount, find it,' because I didn't want him to get shut out."

While Baffert fumed about Gomez's ride in the Santa Anita, he conceded there was nothing the jockey could have done to improve Lucky's chances at Churchill.

"The thing is, he just had some bad trips, but the last race, there's nothing Garrett could have done," Baffert said. "The one-hole killed him."

There's certainly been a run of tough luck for all concerned. So maybe change will be good for everybody.

Switch me? 'Lucky' on rail; 'sweet' horse draws 20

Each year, the Kentucky Derby draw sheds a little light on -- and throws a little wrench into -- the race strategy that will play out on the following Saturday.

I'm not sure when I've had as visceral an initial reaction to the draw as I have this morning. Defending juvenile champ (and morning-line 3/1 favorite) Lookin at Lucky and jockey Garrett Gomez, who would prefer to come up through the field with a later run, drew Post 1, open to the prospects of getting pinned-down and roughed-up on the rail. And the horse a lot of observers think will be the speed of the speed -- gate-to-wire Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy -- drew the far outside, Post 20.

Not that you can't win from either place.

Since 1900, a dozen horses have won from the rail -- equal to the highest winning post-position, tied with No. 5. Although the race hasn't been won from No. 1 in 23 years; Ferdinand last did it in 1986.

And Big Brown two years ago proved Post 20 wasn't hopeless even for a relative speed horse by becoming only the second Derby champion ever to win the race from that far outside. (Though posts 17 and 19 have never had a winner, and Post 18 only one -- Gato Del Sol, 1982.)

But you'd have to think the connections of Sidney's Candy, including young jock Joe Talamo, in his first Kentucky Derby, would rather have the 1-and-gun (at least over Post 20). Hog the rail all the way around and take the shortest route to the 10-furlong finish line. And No. 20 might not be quite the curse as the 23-year-rail-drought promises for Lucky, who has had nothing but trash trips since he can't remember when. Gomez could (if he would) cautiously pick his time and place to drift down toward the inside on the first run past the grandstand and just try not to get hung out too wide on the near turn. And, almost surely avoid being trapped inside like he and the horse were in Candy's SA Derby romp.

Alas, each horse and rider will just have to make the best they can from the luck of the draw.

Which always makes pre-Derby Wednesday so very interesting.

Lookin at Lucky could be a Derby Day value

Gloom, despair and agony on me;

Deep dark depression excessive misery;

If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all;

Gloom, despair and agony on me.

No, I'm not complaining about my job search. Rather, the recent misfortune of a champion colt whose name would suggest he should enjoy much better fortunes: Lookin at Lucky.

It's hard to say that a horse is riding a hard-luck streak when he's 6-for-8 lifetime, has earned more than $1.5 million, was an Eclipse winner at 2, and still is among the better bets for May 1's Kentucky Derby. That is, unless you've closely watched his last few races. And if you have or you do -- though Eskenderya was awe-inspiring Saturday in the Wood Memorial (and I'll write about him soon, as well) -- you'll be reminded why Lookin at Lucky is one of the precious few to beat in the Run for the Roses.

After all, the colt woulda, coulda, shoulda been perfect as a juvenile, but drew the 13-hole for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was stuck wide throughout behind a slow pace at Santa Anita. Finishing with a rush beneath Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky came up inches short, a nose behind long-shot European invader Vale of York, who benefited from a dream trip on the rail thanks to rider Ahmed Ajtebi.

Since returning to the track in 2010, Lookin at Lucky has raced twice, and despite a Grade 2 win and a Grade 1 placing, he's still mired in a streak of bad trips.

Coming into the race after an 84-day layoff, in the Rebel S.-G2 on March 13, Lookin at Lucky jumped heels and broke stride on the back stretch while fellow top contenders Dublin (7/5 on the final odds) and Noble's Promise proceeded unimpeded. The champion and Gomez gathered themselves for a second charge, had to take the overland route going wide on the far turn, and charged down the middle of the Oaklawn track to just nip Noble's Promise at the wire.

And on Saturday at Santa Anita, the trip was even worse. While eventual winner Sidney's Candy was beyond doubt impressive in wiring the field, he benefited from leisurely fractions of 24-flat and 48.50. Meanwhile, Lookin at Lucky and Gomez were cut off just as they were getting into gear on the far turn. Race-caller Trevor Denman said the horse was "in tight ... got stopped cold (and) has dropped out."

When was the last time you saw a horse who had "dropped out" of a mile and an eighth race with less than three furlongs to go, come back to finish third in what was practically a hand-ride?

Setsuko came on down the center of the track to nab a far-back second to Sidney's Candy. But Gomez later said of his colt, "there was no need for me to start banging on him in trying to run second or third when I know we've got another race ahead." Victor Espinoza, whose mount Who's Up cut off Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby, got a three day ban for his ride and a couple of knuckle sandwiches at the scales from Gomez, who was fined $750 for the fisticuffs. (Sounds about fair.) And Lookin at Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert, despite calling Gomez's ride "horrendous," will leave the jockey on the horse, as I believe he should.

So what are we left with?

One of the best horses in the country, I think, likely sharper than we realize, and with a two-turn dirt win (the Rebel) under his belt that most Cal-based runners lack these days. He still has one of the nation's best in the irons. And now he'll likely to be sent off as the third, fourth or even fifth choice at Churchill on Derby Day.

With his wonderful Wood, Eskendereya has stamped himself the almost certain post-time favorite, provided he stays healthy and his works are on-track. Sidney's Candy just trounced a pretty fair group in the Santa Anita Derby, and only one horse -- that being the unlucky "Lucky" -- has any excuse.

I still believe Odysseus has tremendous potential. He crushed eventual Rushaway Stakes winner Exhi by 15 lengths in an allowance race. Then he came back from seeming defeat -- announcer Richard Grunder said Odysseus would "have to wait for another day" near the top of the stretch -- to win the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on a freakish resurgence and pure guts in a three-horse drive. And should he win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes this Saturday (his likely target) or the Arkansas Derby-G1 (his connections' second choice), he would become a major betting interest at Churchill.

I doubt surprise Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Mission Impazible will count for too much in the Churchill wagering, nor will gate-to-wire Illinois Derby-G3 winner American Lion, who still isn't quite living up to expectations. But if Odysseus doesn't win one of this weekend's final Derby preps and horses like Interactif (who is Blue Grass-bound) and Dublin (at Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby) do, they'll likely be among the top four to six favorites at Kentucky Derby post time.

It's inaccurate to speculate that Lookin at Lucky will be a "price" horse at Churchill Downs. But the past five years of wagering history suggest that even as the third or fourth-favored horse, he's likely to be sent off on Derby Saturday at somewhere between 6/1 and 10/1. Fifth-favored would be almost guaranteed double-digit odds.

Imagine the possibility of a $20 or $25 Derby payout on a reigning 2-year-old champion.

And all Lookin at Lucky might need to cash in is just enough good fortune to finally get a decent draw and a halfway-clean trip.

Pioneerof the Nile at career terminus: 'Twas a short trip

Ahmed Zayat's Pioneerof The Nile, winner of four straight graded-stakes before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby to Mine That Bird, has been retired due to a "soft tissue injury."

The injury wasn't fully described; only referenced as "a little filling in his leg" discovered by trainer Bob Baffert and staff.

The Blood-Horse -- in another notorious "edited press release" -- apparently is accepting Zayat Sables' labeling of the horse as "one of the top colts of his generation." ... Do they mean "crop?" Because that at least have a chance of being true.

In fact, because The Blood-Horse apparently isn't bothering to temper anyone's editorial commentary in their self-promotional press-releases, there's all sorts of gushing about Pioneerof The Nile in the "story."

It's said that jockey Garrett Gomez chose Pioneerof The Nile over $3.7 million yearling Dunkirk for the Kentucky Derby "as a demonstration of the respect (Pioneerof The Nile) commanded." ... But wouldn't a jockey be an idiot not to take the multiple-graded-stakes winner over a horse that had only cleared the maiden and allowance ranks, Dunkirk's placing in the Florida Derby notwithstanding?

The "story" fawns over the horse's combination of stamina and speed. And Baffert, according to Zayat, was "100 percent convinced that (Pioneerof The Nile) was going to win the Breeders' Cup Classic."

Good for them. I'm not 100 percent convinced of much of anything, including whether any horse will be sound and fit enough to race on Breeders' Cup weekend (theirs won't be), let alone win the biggest race on the card.

I'm not necessarily knocking Pioneerof The Nile, although I won't fawn over him, either. He was a talented horse who won half of his 10 lifetime starts and more than $1.6 million.

But I will go on record that 10 starts doesn't impress me. And his sire, Empire Maker, made all of eight before retiring unsound as a 3-year-old and not making it to the Breeders' Cup Classic. (Though Bobby Frankel called him the "best horse I have ever trained.") And while I hate to point fingers, here's the Unbridled line again, which also includes the aforementioned Dunkirk (by Unbridled's Song) who likewise is presently on the shelf due to injury.

"Thank God I'll get to see his progeny," says Zayat.

Well, for eight or 10 races, anyway.

Slew of scratches spoils undercard stakes at Colonial

 A late look at Equibase.com reveals a remarkable number of scratches in the three stakes races that help form the undercard of Colonial Turf Cup-G2 day at Colonial Downs. But a call to the track's racing office confirms that all of the stakes as-scheduled are expected to stay on the grass.

Chief among the undercard races is the All Along Breeders' Cup S.-G3, which has become an intriguing early summer turf route for the ladies. Unfortunately, last year's Virginia Oaks winner, I Lost My Choo, and G2-placed Icon Project, to have been ridden by Julien Leparoux, are both scratched, leaving 7/2 Indescribable, a multiple G3 winner, as the favorite along with 4/1 French-born Astrologie, ridden by Garrett Gomez for conditioner Christophe Clement. First Ascent also is out.

Barring further scratches, there are still nine fillies and mares left to run in the All Along.

That's hardly the case in the $50,000 Buckland Stakes, a turf sprint for females, where 10 of the 14 entries have bailed. A source in the Colonial racing office said early this afternoon that he didn't know why the connections of so many entrants had begged-off the Buckland, but scratches left only four to run -- and all of them were at double-digit odds when the field was drawn.

The "favorite" now, I suppose, would be Charlie Papa, an 8-year-old with two wins in Calder's Cool Air Stakes (at 6 and 7) and a turf-sprinting record at Tampa to her credit. But she was 10/1 on the ticker before all the scratching commenced. Left to face her are: Cal-bred Excessive Heat, a 4-year-old stakes winner of $236,260 with 10 wins in 15 starts, but who was running for a tag at Gulfstream in January; Battingstar, a 5-year-old Grand Slam mare who hasn't earned blacktype nor cracked $100,000 in earnings from 20 starts; and Twiceasbeautiful, a 5-year-old by Texas Glitter who is stakes-placed at Tampa but likewise is yet to reach six figures in earnings.

Scratched were: Citi Charisse (who won last year's Sissy Woolums S.-N at Colonial); Anofficerandalady; Ahvee's Destiny; Fancy Diamond; Golden Spirits; Rinterval (second in a million-dollar Irish race last year); Kosmo's Buddy; Humorlee; Hadavision; and Smart And Fancy.

Also suffering a couple of scratches is the Old Nelson Stakes, a $30,000 event for claimers who've run for a $25K tag or less in 2008-09. Out are Ez Mac and Classic Bridges, but 6/5 favorite Drivingmaxandmitzi and 5/2 second choice Terrific Storm remain in the mix for the mile and three-sixteenths on the outer turf.

Whatever 'it' is, Leparoux has it and Borel must not

Whatever it is that Julien Leparoux has that Calvin Borel doesn't, it could pay off for him Saturday when he rides Lime Rickey in the Colonial Turf Cup-G2 at Virginia's Colonial Downs.

Borel, rider of arguably the two most famed horses in America this spring -- Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Kentucky Oaks and Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra -- was reportedly shut out of nearly a week's worth of rides at unfamiliar Belmont Park leading up to the June 6 Belmont Stakes. Borel ended up with no mounts from which to learn the race-riding ways of Big Sandy, so when he took Mine That Bird out for the Test of the Champion, it was an extra-tough exam; one in which the duo fell short.

Leparoux, on the other hand, is named on horses throughout the day Saturday at Colonial, where he's mostly in town -- if Colonial's rural New Kent location can be called "town" -- to ride Lime Rickey.

I'd written that Borel's absence from the irons all week at Belmont amounted to "blackball by default," reasoning that the Belmont trainer colony had little if any reason to put Mine That Bird's jockey aboard their horses to school his rider for the big race. I considered that there might have been some insidious reasons for the refusal to hire Borel -- I say "refusal" because, by Steve Haskin's account, Borel tried and failed to get mounts -- but that there didn't need to be any animosity against the "Churchill-shipper" of jockeys order for him to be closed out of opportunities.

Now I'm left wondering, because Leparoux -- a fabulous rider, arguably the most accomplished apprentice in history and at 25 years of age already one of the finest jockeys in the land -- has had no trouble finding horses at Colonial where, in theory, most of the same reasons that Belmont trainers might not hire Borel should also apply. Granted, Leparoux's name might tumble from most educated lips before Borel's in the discussion of the top active race-riders, but if they're that educated, not too long before. And was any jockey in America hotter than Calvin Borel heading into Belmont week?

I noticed Leparoux's considerable presence on the Colonial card for Saturday when I realized that a filly bred by some Virginia horse friends -- Lisa and Gordon Calhoun of Perfect Peace Farm -- was entered in Race 1. Perfect Pet (Marquetry-Red Devilette, by Oh Say) drew the 12 post of 13 entries, and her trainer, Timothy E. Salzman, per the program at least, has secured the services of one Julien Leparoux.

It's a $7,500 NW2L claimer. Julien Leparoux. Wow. Get pictures, Gordon and Lisa. I know you plan to be there.

Then I scanned down the card. Leparoux is not named for races 2 or 3, but has the 1-horse, White Pearl, for trainer Leigh Delacour in Race 4, an allowance. He's off until Race 9, when he takes Kosmo's Buddy for Salzman in the Buckland Stakes. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Leparoux is up for all the stakes races save one (the $30,000 Old Nelson Stakes) on a busy added-money day for Colonial, riding Empire Maker filly Icon Project for Marty Wolfson in the All Along Breeders' Cup S.-G3, as well.

He should be good and warmed-up when he legs-up to Lime Rickey in the Turf Cup for trainer Frank Alexander.

Several other "name" riders will be at Colonial Saturday: 2009 Belmont winner Kent Desormeaux; always superb Garrett Gomez; Hall of Famer Edgar Prado; California ace Corey Nakatani; and the accomplished Corey Lanerie among them. A few have picked up other mounts, but none of them are named on as many horses as Leparoux and most are sticking to the stakes races. Tyler Baze will be on-hand only to ride Battle of Hastings(GB) in the Turf Cup.

O.K., so five mounts isn't like Leparoux is riding every race on the card. But Leparoux is named on five horses out of 12 races on a single day, and who knows, he might pick up more once he gets there. And per the program, Leparoux is only riding on Saturday -- he's not named on any mounts Friday or Sunday at Colonial. So his one-day trip to New Kent could result in five rides (or more), three in stakes company, while Borel spent the better part of a week at Belmont and couldn't talk his way onto a single horse.

Leparoux's considerable skills aside, I just can't explain that.