Lookin at Lucky could be a Derby Day value

Gloom, despair and agony on me;

Deep dark depression excessive misery;

If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all;

Gloom, despair and agony on me.

No, I'm not complaining about my job search. Rather, the recent misfortune of a champion colt whose name would suggest he should enjoy much better fortunes: Lookin at Lucky.

It's hard to say that a horse is riding a hard-luck streak when he's 6-for-8 lifetime, has earned more than $1.5 million, was an Eclipse winner at 2, and still is among the better bets for May 1's Kentucky Derby. That is, unless you've closely watched his last few races. And if you have or you do -- though Eskenderya was awe-inspiring Saturday in the Wood Memorial (and I'll write about him soon, as well) -- you'll be reminded why Lookin at Lucky is one of the precious few to beat in the Run for the Roses.

After all, the colt woulda, coulda, shoulda been perfect as a juvenile, but drew the 13-hole for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was stuck wide throughout behind a slow pace at Santa Anita. Finishing with a rush beneath Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky came up inches short, a nose behind long-shot European invader Vale of York, who benefited from a dream trip on the rail thanks to rider Ahmed Ajtebi.

Since returning to the track in 2010, Lookin at Lucky has raced twice, and despite a Grade 2 win and a Grade 1 placing, he's still mired in a streak of bad trips.

Coming into the race after an 84-day layoff, in the Rebel S.-G2 on March 13, Lookin at Lucky jumped heels and broke stride on the back stretch while fellow top contenders Dublin (7/5 on the final odds) and Noble's Promise proceeded unimpeded. The champion and Gomez gathered themselves for a second charge, had to take the overland route going wide on the far turn, and charged down the middle of the Oaklawn track to just nip Noble's Promise at the wire.

And on Saturday at Santa Anita, the trip was even worse. While eventual winner Sidney's Candy was beyond doubt impressive in wiring the field, he benefited from leisurely fractions of 24-flat and 48.50. Meanwhile, Lookin at Lucky and Gomez were cut off just as they were getting into gear on the far turn. Race-caller Trevor Denman said the horse was "in tight ... got stopped cold (and) has dropped out."

When was the last time you saw a horse who had "dropped out" of a mile and an eighth race with less than three furlongs to go, come back to finish third in what was practically a hand-ride?

Setsuko came on down the center of the track to nab a far-back second to Sidney's Candy. But Gomez later said of his colt, "there was no need for me to start banging on him in trying to run second or third when I know we've got another race ahead." Victor Espinoza, whose mount Who's Up cut off Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby, got a three day ban for his ride and a couple of knuckle sandwiches at the scales from Gomez, who was fined $750 for the fisticuffs. (Sounds about fair.) And Lookin at Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert, despite calling Gomez's ride "horrendous," will leave the jockey on the horse, as I believe he should.

So what are we left with?

One of the best horses in the country, I think, likely sharper than we realize, and with a two-turn dirt win (the Rebel) under his belt that most Cal-based runners lack these days. He still has one of the nation's best in the irons. And now he'll likely to be sent off as the third, fourth or even fifth choice at Churchill on Derby Day.

With his wonderful Wood, Eskendereya has stamped himself the almost certain post-time favorite, provided he stays healthy and his works are on-track. Sidney's Candy just trounced a pretty fair group in the Santa Anita Derby, and only one horse -- that being the unlucky "Lucky" -- has any excuse.

I still believe Odysseus has tremendous potential. He crushed eventual Rushaway Stakes winner Exhi by 15 lengths in an allowance race. Then he came back from seeming defeat -- announcer Richard Grunder said Odysseus would "have to wait for another day" near the top of the stretch -- to win the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on a freakish resurgence and pure guts in a three-horse drive. And should he win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes this Saturday (his likely target) or the Arkansas Derby-G1 (his connections' second choice), he would become a major betting interest at Churchill.

I doubt surprise Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Mission Impazible will count for too much in the Churchill wagering, nor will gate-to-wire Illinois Derby-G3 winner American Lion, who still isn't quite living up to expectations. But if Odysseus doesn't win one of this weekend's final Derby preps and horses like Interactif (who is Blue Grass-bound) and Dublin (at Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby) do, they'll likely be among the top four to six favorites at Kentucky Derby post time.

It's inaccurate to speculate that Lookin at Lucky will be a "price" horse at Churchill Downs. But the past five years of wagering history suggest that even as the third or fourth-favored horse, he's likely to be sent off on Derby Saturday at somewhere between 6/1 and 10/1. Fifth-favored would be almost guaranteed double-digit odds.

Imagine the possibility of a $20 or $25 Derby payout on a reigning 2-year-old champion.

And all Lookin at Lucky might need to cash in is just enough good fortune to finally get a decent draw and a halfway-clean trip.

Derby field taking shape ... of a blob

Maybe more than in any other season of recent memory, I'm impressed by the field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls as February makes the turn for home into March.

"Impressed" not quite so much by the brilliance of talent -- though there are some very nice horses vying for those 20 starting gate spots -- but by the depth of the pool of hopefuls. With a couple of notable exceptions, it's hard to separate the top 25 to 30 horses that could be considered most likely to make their way to Churchill for the first Saturday in May.

Saturday's brace of races -- six that were considered potential Derby-preps -- added to the reputations of some contenders, but also muddied the waters a bit.

On Saturday night, I picked my initial 10 horses for the annual Road to the Roses competition online, and scored a few points (though not nearly enough for weekly honors) as D' Funnybone came home winner of the Hutcheson, and Eskendereya won the Fountain of Youth, with another of my choices, Jackson Bend, figuring, as well.

But those 10 horses aren't exactly the top 10 contenders in my mind. They were chosen solely to score points in the contest (and not well-chosen, at that), while there are others who weren't running last week (Lookin at Lucky, particularly) who belong high on the list.

So I guess I'll chime in with my Top 10 Derby Contenders as of Feb. 22, on the heels of some key races that have helped shape my opinion -- from mere blob, to a blob with some gelatinous qualities that will set up a bit more over time. And if I'm wrong and the blob never takes on a winning form, we can just make Jell-O shots and forget our worries.

1. Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway-Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew). Stellar winner of the Fountain of Youth at 9 furlongs, and bred to get the mile and a quarter of the Derby (and perhaps beyond) with ease. Sire Giant's Causeway had three Grade 1 wins going 10 panels or more, this colt's dam was by a Triple Crown winner in Seattle Slew, and second dam Altair was by Alydar, who was second in all three TC races to America's last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed. No doubt the horse has the pedigree and class to run in Derby company, and trainer Todd Pletcher should get him there. ... Pletcher, however, is yet to win a Kentucky Derby. Perhaps this colt will be his first.

2. Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike-Private Feeling, by Belong to Me). Divisional champ at 2, but unraced thus far at age 3 and didn't exactly set the world ablaze with his 1:15 and change 6-furlong work today at Santa Anita. Prior works had been much sharper, however. He was the classiest 2-year-old in the country last year, but needs to get off the sidelines and back in a race to regain the No. 1 spot in my mind. I'm also not very compelled to give much weight to Cal-based horses until I've seen them on real dirt, so Lucky might be the only name from that circuit in this Top 10.

3. Conveyance (Indian Charlie-Emptythetill, by Holy Bull). Not thrilled with his pedigree for getting the distance, all though the sire was third in the Derby himself. But it's hard to ignore 4-for-4 and the ability to transition from synthetic, on which he won the San Rafael S.-G3 at Santa Anita onto conventional dirt, over which he annexed the Southwest S.-G3 at Oaklawn on Saturday. Dam was a three-race maiden who hasn't yet produced anything else of note, and second dam In The Till (Mr. Prospector) was unraced, but did produce several stakes-placers.

4. Rule (Roman Ruler-Rockcide, by Personal Flag). I'm not entirely convinced of this colt's pedigree for getting a mile and a quarter, but also can't ignore that his second dam is Belle's Good Cide, who was dam of Derby/Preakness winner Funny Cide, and some doubted that gelding's ability to get a classic distance, too, until he dusted favored Empire Maker in the Churchill stretch and crushed 'em all two weeks later at Pimlico. Rule broke maiden at a mile and has a pair of Grade 3 wins at a mile and a sixteenth, so two turns in itself isn't a problem. We'll see if he can carry his brilliance to 10 furlongs.

5. Odysseus (Malibu Moon-Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo). Only three races under his belt, but the last two -- a maiden-breaker at Gulfstream in January and a recent allowance score at Tampa -- were impressive. Could be the Big Brown of 2009, though hopefully without the brittle feet. Malibu Moon can get a classic-distance horse, especially with the stamina of Conquistador Cielo (a Belmont winner) and Nijinsky II (St. Leger winner at 14f) on the dam's side in this one. Look out for him in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 13.

6. Buddy's Saint (Saint Liam-Tuzia, by Blushing John). Broke maiden in the Nashua Stakes at age 2, then showed he could get a distance by winning the 9-furlong Remsen S.-G2, a long haul for a juvenile. Desperately needed a race off the layoff in the Fountain of Youth Saturday, and failed to figure.

7. D' Funnybone (D'Wildcat-Elbow, by Woodman). Sharp winner of the Hutcheson S.-G2 at Gulfstream Saturday would merit more consideration if he had success at a route of ground to his credit by now. The Hutcheson was but 7 furlongs and he won it well, but were the "real" Derby hopefuls in the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth at the same track on the same day? It isn't inconceivable that D' Funnybone can get the Derby distance. His dam is by Woodman, a reasonable source of stamina, and second dam Elvia was by classic-distance sire Roberto out of a blacktype mare by classic-distance sire Lyphard. ... So I ask trainer Rick Dutrow, "When are we gonna see this boy get some ground?"

8. Super Saver (Maria's Mon-Supercharger, by A.P. Indy). Another Pletcher trainee who will benefit from that conditioner's ability to get horses to the big race, albeit not yet to win it. I like that the colt won at a mile and a sixteenth as a juvenile in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and it was over the Derby's own Churchill Downs strip. Full sibling Hedge Fund has run 53 times and earned more than $151,000. Since Super Saver is yet to start in 2009, he also needs to come out of the gate in March looking less like a horse coming off a layoff and more like a serious contender, or it might be hard to get him positioned to win on Derby Saturday.

9. Dublin (Afleet Alex-Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird). Colt came up short in the Southwest to Conveyance, but does have credentials. A G1 winner at 2, however, he seems a bit hit-and-miss. Of his five races as a juvenile, he won two and failed to hit the board in the other three. Dam was a G1 winner herself, and produced G2-placed Mike's Classic. So there's some class on the page for this one.

10. American Lion (Tiznow-Storm Tide, by Storm Cat). OK, so another Cal-based runner did sneak into the mix. I like this one because he should be able to race over real dirt, as did sire Tiznow, though the Tiznows are shining on synthetic, as well. Dam's side of the pedigree is far more built for speed than the sire's, but second dam City Band was a G1 winner at a mile and a sixteenth and Tiznow's influence should help this colt stretch a bit beyond that limit.

Now let's see how long they stay in this order -- or even present on the list -- in my mind. I suspect it won't be long.