A moment of silence for Real Quiet

The news came as a shock this morning, as it usually does for me when a stallion dies before the age of 20 or so.

Real Quiet -- who in 1998 came closer to a Triple Crown than any horse since Affirmed last did it in 1978 -- died peacefully in his stall this week at Penn Ridge Farm near Harrisburg, Pa. He was only 15.

To me, Real Quiet was always a source of inspiration that the little guy, be he equine or human, could succeed in this game.

Real Quiet was conceived on a recommendation by the late Jack Werk. Eduardo Gaviria, a breeder from Bogota, Colombia, and director of that country's stud book, who also owned a farm in Ocala, Fla., approached Werk Thoroughbred Consultants in 1994 for advice on breeding his mare, Really Blue (Believe It-Meadow Blue, by Raise a Native). Gaviria wanted to spend $10,000 or less on the stud fee, breed in Kentucky, and sell the resulting foal.

Werk found that at the time, there were six stakes winners by Fappiano out of In Reality mares. Really Blue was by a son of In Reality. Fappiano had died four years earlier (a brilliant stud career cut short at age 13 by founder), so Werk recommended a son, Quiet American, for Gaviria's mare.

The resulting foal of this somewhat "bargain" breeding didn't sell for much at auction, either. The bay colt turned out on the right front. And he was so narrow in the chest when viewed head-on that J.B. McKathan, who along with brother Kevin had combed the 1996 Keeneland September Yearling Sale for trainer Bob Baffert, became the first to describe him as "The Fish," a nickname that stuck once the horse was in Baffert's barn. Mike Pegram, a Baffert client, shelled out all of $17,000 for the Quiet American colt at that sale.

"When he was a yearling, he was just a frame," J.B. McKathan said later. "He didn't have any muscle on him. To buy 'The Fish' you had to have imagination. And you had to put up with the fact that he's incorrect ... which never bothered us. He moved like an athlete, and that's what we were looking for."

It didn't take too long for the incorrect, inexpensive, unassuming Real Quiet to start making a little bit of noise.

He raced nine times as a 2-year-old. ... How many do that anymore? ... And while he won just twice, one of those victories was the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity. He was also third five times, twice in stakes.

As a 3-year-old, Real Quiet didn't win a race until that first Saturday in May, at Churchill. He was second in the San Felipe S.-G2 to Artax and then in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 to Indian Charlie while prepping for the big day.

But in the Derby, it was Mike Pegram's and Bob Baffert's $17,000 yearling -- crooked, narrow and cheap -- who desperately held off Victory Gallop in deep stretch to win the 124th running of the Run for the Roses.

Real Quiet went on to win the Preakness by more than two lengths over Victory Gallop. But Victory Gallop got the better of him in June, in New York, wearing the Derby winner down, chipping away at the Triple Crown hopeful's four-length lead in the stretch, and winning the Belmont Stakes by just a nose to rob Real Quiet of a little piece of immortality.

Though he wouldn't race again that year, Real Quiet was named champion 3-year-old colt. And he did come back at age 4. ... Again, how many Derby winners do that anymore? ... In his 1999 season, Real Quiet, as he did at 2 and 3, was a Grade 1 winner, annexing both the Hollywood Gold Cup and the Pimlico Special. He retired with six wins and 11 other placings from 20 starts, for $3,271,802.

Sent to stud, Real Quiet eventually filtered his way to Pennsylvania, where he stood this year for $6,000. But while the imperfect Derby winner couldn't become a star stud in Kentucky, his breeding career hasn't been a complete bust. Among his 15 stakes winners are champion sprinter Midnight Lute and fellow Grade 1 winners Pussycat Doll and Wonder Lady Anne L. Not including this year's 2-year-olds, Real Quiet has gotten 76.5 percent starters and 50.4 percent winners from all foals. From an earnings standpoint, their average ($49,918) and median ($13,515) aren't bank-breakers, but he was presented a broodmare band with a comparable index of 1.27 and managed to produce his own progeny average earnings index of 1.21. (For those who aren't up to speed on such figures, that means Real Quiet had about the same success with his mares as did other sires with whom they were mated.)

You got those results from a fairly reasonable stud fee. If you weren't the breeder, you could buy his weanlings and yearlings at auction for an average price of less than $10,000; his 2-year-olds for an average of under $20,000. And you had a 50/50 shot of breeding or owning a winner, which in this business isn't all that bad.

Not just from the day he was born, nor from the day he was conceived, but from the day his very conception was conceived, Real Quiet was about spending a little in hopes of maybe getting a whole lot. It's the dream of every non-millionaire would-be racehorse owner or breeder; of every $2 bettor at the window. Stories like his are a big part of why I'm here.

So it's with a heavy heart that I say, "Goodbye, Fish."

Rest in peace. And Quiet.

'Seconditis' weekend extends to graded stakes, but two more sales tips are maidens no longer

After starting an active three-day stretch with a couple of near-misses -- horses getting beaten a neck and a nose in maiden special weight races -- my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010 had a strong Sunday to cap the weekend.

The Sabbath saw a pair of fillies I selected from this year's sales clearing their maiden hurdles in their second and fourth starts, respectively, and a third filly moving forward from a first-out maiden score to place in a Grade 2 stakes race in her second lifetime effort.

Let's tout the blacktype first.

Alienation, a filly owned by Jill Baffert and trained by her hall-of-fame husband, Bob, broke her maiden in fleet fashion at first asking over the Hollywood Park grass on July 5. Baffert scratched his wife's filly from the recent Sorrento S.-G3 at Del Mar, which would have been run on synthetic, and shipped her east, where she posted a bullet work in the mud -- five furlongs in essentially a minute flat -- leading up to the Adirondack S.-G2 at Saratoga.

On Sunday at the Spa, Alienation was pressed on the pace by Miss Sarah Brown (who would finish last of 10) through fractions of 21.72 and 45.07 and disposed of everyone else in the field by at least five lengths; everyone but Position Limit, that is. The Bellamy Road filly overtook the tiring leader and drew off to win the $150,000 race by five lengths, the same margin Alienation finished ahead of third-place Coax Liberty.

Earning $30,000 for her efforts, Alienation (Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West) has now banked $54,000. She was a $60,000 purchase, so has nearly earned that back in just two starts, but has likely elevated her potential commercial value above that purchase price with G2 blacktype on her own page, and certainly has every hope for an even more promising future.

In tipping her as Hip 719 at OBSAPR, I noted that in addition to her brisk, 21-flat quarter in the under-tack show, her dam was a minor stakes winner with multiple blacktype siblings, whose second dam was a half-sister to G1 winners JUDGE ANGELUCCI, WAR and PEACE.

"If this filly earns any blacktype of her own ... this price looks very reasonable down the road," I wrote. "In fact, it already does."

Well, there you go.

Also on Sunday, maiden-breakers No. 15 and No. 16 from my 187-horse list of sales tips collected their first lifetime victories in widely disparate environments; one at Hoosier Park and the other at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico.

Fiscal Policy scored first in Indiana, building upon a third-place debut to take the field practically gate to wire in a five-furlong maiden special weight. She drew off to win by four and a quarter lengths for jockey Leandro Goncalves, covering the distance in 58.40.

The filly by Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook was foaled in Florida, bred by Robert L. Dodd. She is owned by Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence, and trained by Tom Amoss. Her $21,000 share of the purse bumps Fiscal Policy's earnings to $24,080.

Fiscal Policy sold for a whopping $140,000 as Hip 801 at OBSAPR. I noted that her unraced dam had produced a solid, non-blacktype winner from two foals, and this filly's 10-flat eighth was promising. Her second dam was the stakes-placed Copelan mare Grand Betty, who produced G3 winner POSITIVE ENERGY, and this is the female family of G1 winner FAMILY ENTERPRIZE, among other stakes horses. Fiscal Policy's fifth dam is reine de course Bramalea, dam of breed-shaping sire Roberto.

"I thought she might bring less than the average Wildcat Heir (around $74,000 at the time), but she brought much more," I wrote after the then-unnamed filly sold. She was nearly the session-topper on the third day of the sale.

Later in the afternoon, Concertos Pride broke through in her fourth start in Puerto Rico. The filly had placed second among winners at first asking, losing to a horse who has now won at least thrice already. Then, Concertos Pride disappointed in two straight races against maidens (won by another of my sales picks, Hold Still).

The race was a six-furlong maiden special weight, but since it takes a few days for full charts from Hipodromo Camarero to filter their way to Equibase -- and then to me -- I'm not sure yet of the margin, or what Concertos Pride has earned from the win.

Concertos Pride sold as Hip 1003 at OBSAPR, and brought only $5,000. Though her dam was only placed, never a winner, I like that she is a daughter of a top broodmare sire in Deputy Minister, and had already produced nine winners from 13 foals, four of them stakes horses. That's the resume of a filly who should win somewhere, and pretty soon, she did. I'll need to see the time for six furlongs to see whether it's a race that would have been competitive somewhere in the States, even if at a lower-tier track.

The weekend, which included a first-time starter in Korea (to be reported later), boasted 15 races for my sales tips, with three wins, three seconds and a third, plus the third horse to achieve at least a blacktype-placing.

From 107 races, my sales picks have logged 17 wins (15.9 percent) and, with 15 places and a dozen shows, an in-the-money rate of 41.1 percent. Total earnings now have reached $539,028, not including the win by Concertos Pride or the race in Korea, dollar-figures from which aren't yet accessible for me.

Follow the race results of all 187 of my sales tips (and a few horses I didn't like) here.

Alienation endears herself as my 4th 2010 tip to win

Alienation overcame lugging in at the top of the stretch and falling five lengths in arrears to nip her front-running rival Pedaltothemedal by a nose and clear her maiden hurdle at first asking Monday at Hollywood Park.

The dark bay or brown daughter of Rock Hard Ten was close to the pace-setter until the turn for home, when she lugged in and slipped behind by five lengths. Straightened up by Martin Garcia and fighting back on the outside in deep-stretch, she overcame Pedaltothemedal, who battled fiercely on the rail under Joe Talamo.

The two fillies covered 5 furlongs on turf in a fleet :56.29.

With the first-out victory, Alienation became the fourth juvenile to win from among my 187 tips out of various 2010 sales of 2-year-olds in training. She earned $24,000 for the race.

Alienation was Hip 719 at OBS April, where she sold for $60,000 to Navigator Stables. The owner of record at Hollywood Park Monday was one Natalie J. Baffert; the trainer Bob Baffert. Whomever they might be. (Just kidding.)

I landed on the filly prior to her sale because she "flew 21-flat through a quarter," her dam, Alienated (Gone West), was a minor stakes winner and half-sister to four other stakes horses, and her third dam was a Canadian champion grass horse. Alienation is from the female family of JUDGE ANGELUCCI (Californian S.-G1), WAR (Blue Grass S.-G1) and PEACE (John Henry S.-G1).

"If this filly earns any blacktype of her own, or if her young dam produces like her female ancestors," I wrote, "this price looks very reasonable down the road. In fact, it already does."

That opinion didn't change on Monday. Pedaltothemedal gave Alienation a run for her money. But Alienation overcame running green, won in racehorse time (especially for a first-out 2-year-old) and, if she comes out of this contest in good shape, has every hope of moving forward.

Also Monday, Sylvia's Tempo, a Posse filly I tipped at the same OBS sale, improved in her second lifetime effort, finishing third beaten just two lengths (and only a neck for second) in a sloppy maiden special at Calder. From two starts, Sylvia's Tempo -- a $49,000 RNA -- has earned $2,970.

To track the performance of all my 2010 picks and pans, click here and scroll down to the sale-by-sale, hip-by-hip roll.

Could he be that unlucky?

I'm Preakness-bound within the next couple of hours, so today I'll see in person whether 2-year-old champ Lookin at Lucky could possibly racing under brutally unfortunate circumstances yet again.

Contrary to his name, Lookin at Lucky has had the ill fate to suffer nothing but horrible trips dating back to his Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up finish last November. In the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, he had the bad luck to draw the rail (from which no horse has won since Ferdinand in 1986), was beaten around and shuffled back on the first trip past the stands at Churchill, and yet somehow managed to be full of run in the homestretch to finish sixth.

The misfortune eventually resulted in Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert, deciding on a rider change, just to shake things up. Garrett Gomez is off to ride Dublin for D. Wayne Lukas, replaced by Martin Garcia. And maybe "Go Go" took that bad mojo with him -- Lukas' Dublin drew the far outside Post 12 for the Preakness. Lookin at Lucky and Garcia will break from the seven-hole, right next to their biggest adversary, Kentucky Derby winners Super Saver and Calvin Borel.

Whatever happens, it looks like I'll have a very good view. More about that post-race.

Un-'Lucky' Gomez travels to Dublin for Preakness

You gotta love Bob Baffert. Whether or not you like the way he trains a racehorse (and there are some fans who don't seem to like the way anybody trains a racehorse), he's at least a great and usually frank interview.

Baffert on Saturday responded to the constant questions from media about whether 2-year-old champ Lookin At Lucky will run a week from today in the Preakness with the most specific response a trainer could give. In a manner of speaking.

"We're at 52 percent today," Baffert wisecracked.

That 48 percent unknown is accompanied by the uncertainty of a rider change should Lucky compete at Pimlico. Jockey Garrett Gomez is off the horse, and Baffert has not decided who will ride if Lucky races in the Preakness.

Gomez rode Lucky to his championship -- and through an unbroken series of horrible trips that began in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and continued all the way through Derby Day, when Lucky had the misfortune of drawing the rail. Baffert criticized Gomez's ride in the Santa Anita Derby, when Lookin At Lucky was knocked around, but still finished third. Still, the trainer later said the jock would not be fired from the mount.

But today, Gomez's agent, Ron Anderson, said the rider had been told a jockey change was forthcoming -- just in an effort to revivify Lucky's fortunes -- so Anderson scrambled up a Preakness mount for Gomez aboard Dublin for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

"I told Ron I didn't know if I was gonna run the horse (at Pimlico), but if I did I was going to make a chance only because of the bad luck we've been having lately," Baffert told The Blood-Horse. "Just out of respect, I said, 'If you can find another mount, find it,' because I didn't want him to get shut out."

While Baffert fumed about Gomez's ride in the Santa Anita, he conceded there was nothing the jockey could have done to improve Lucky's chances at Churchill.

"The thing is, he just had some bad trips, but the last race, there's nothing Garrett could have done," Baffert said. "The one-hole killed him."

There's certainly been a run of tough luck for all concerned. So maybe change will be good for everybody.

Lookin at Lucky could be a Derby Day value

Gloom, despair and agony on me;

Deep dark depression excessive misery;

If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all;

Gloom, despair and agony on me.

No, I'm not complaining about my job search. Rather, the recent misfortune of a champion colt whose name would suggest he should enjoy much better fortunes: Lookin at Lucky.

It's hard to say that a horse is riding a hard-luck streak when he's 6-for-8 lifetime, has earned more than $1.5 million, was an Eclipse winner at 2, and still is among the better bets for May 1's Kentucky Derby. That is, unless you've closely watched his last few races. And if you have or you do -- though Eskenderya was awe-inspiring Saturday in the Wood Memorial (and I'll write about him soon, as well) -- you'll be reminded why Lookin at Lucky is one of the precious few to beat in the Run for the Roses.

After all, the colt woulda, coulda, shoulda been perfect as a juvenile, but drew the 13-hole for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was stuck wide throughout behind a slow pace at Santa Anita. Finishing with a rush beneath Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky came up inches short, a nose behind long-shot European invader Vale of York, who benefited from a dream trip on the rail thanks to rider Ahmed Ajtebi.

Since returning to the track in 2010, Lookin at Lucky has raced twice, and despite a Grade 2 win and a Grade 1 placing, he's still mired in a streak of bad trips.

Coming into the race after an 84-day layoff, in the Rebel S.-G2 on March 13, Lookin at Lucky jumped heels and broke stride on the back stretch while fellow top contenders Dublin (7/5 on the final odds) and Noble's Promise proceeded unimpeded. The champion and Gomez gathered themselves for a second charge, had to take the overland route going wide on the far turn, and charged down the middle of the Oaklawn track to just nip Noble's Promise at the wire.

And on Saturday at Santa Anita, the trip was even worse. While eventual winner Sidney's Candy was beyond doubt impressive in wiring the field, he benefited from leisurely fractions of 24-flat and 48.50. Meanwhile, Lookin at Lucky and Gomez were cut off just as they were getting into gear on the far turn. Race-caller Trevor Denman said the horse was "in tight ... got stopped cold (and) has dropped out."

When was the last time you saw a horse who had "dropped out" of a mile and an eighth race with less than three furlongs to go, come back to finish third in what was practically a hand-ride?

Setsuko came on down the center of the track to nab a far-back second to Sidney's Candy. But Gomez later said of his colt, "there was no need for me to start banging on him in trying to run second or third when I know we've got another race ahead." Victor Espinoza, whose mount Who's Up cut off Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby, got a three day ban for his ride and a couple of knuckle sandwiches at the scales from Gomez, who was fined $750 for the fisticuffs. (Sounds about fair.) And Lookin at Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert, despite calling Gomez's ride "horrendous," will leave the jockey on the horse, as I believe he should.

So what are we left with?

One of the best horses in the country, I think, likely sharper than we realize, and with a two-turn dirt win (the Rebel) under his belt that most Cal-based runners lack these days. He still has one of the nation's best in the irons. And now he'll likely to be sent off as the third, fourth or even fifth choice at Churchill on Derby Day.

With his wonderful Wood, Eskendereya has stamped himself the almost certain post-time favorite, provided he stays healthy and his works are on-track. Sidney's Candy just trounced a pretty fair group in the Santa Anita Derby, and only one horse -- that being the unlucky "Lucky" -- has any excuse.

I still believe Odysseus has tremendous potential. He crushed eventual Rushaway Stakes winner Exhi by 15 lengths in an allowance race. Then he came back from seeming defeat -- announcer Richard Grunder said Odysseus would "have to wait for another day" near the top of the stretch -- to win the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on a freakish resurgence and pure guts in a three-horse drive. And should he win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes this Saturday (his likely target) or the Arkansas Derby-G1 (his connections' second choice), he would become a major betting interest at Churchill.

I doubt surprise Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Mission Impazible will count for too much in the Churchill wagering, nor will gate-to-wire Illinois Derby-G3 winner American Lion, who still isn't quite living up to expectations. But if Odysseus doesn't win one of this weekend's final Derby preps and horses like Interactif (who is Blue Grass-bound) and Dublin (at Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby) do, they'll likely be among the top four to six favorites at Kentucky Derby post time.

It's inaccurate to speculate that Lookin at Lucky will be a "price" horse at Churchill Downs. But the past five years of wagering history suggest that even as the third or fourth-favored horse, he's likely to be sent off on Derby Saturday at somewhere between 6/1 and 10/1. Fifth-favored would be almost guaranteed double-digit odds.

Imagine the possibility of a $20 or $25 Derby payout on a reigning 2-year-old champion.

And all Lookin at Lucky might need to cash in is just enough good fortune to finally get a decent draw and a halfway-clean trip.

Breeders' Cup loses Indian Blessing

Another major defection has weakened a 2009 Breeders' Cup already bruised by cold shoulders thrown by other major contenders.

The second straight running of the Cup during the Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita was already suffering from the long-planned absence of likely champion 3-year-old filly and potential Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Her principal owner, Jess Jackson, says he doesn't want the filly racing "on plastic" -- that is, Santa Anita's Pro-Ride synthetic main track.

Now trainer Bob Baffert has said his dual-champion 4-year-old filly Indian Blessing would not be pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Baffert said the Indian Charlie filly -- who was the 2-year-old champion female of 2007 and champion female sprinter in 2008 -- simply has a distaste for the Pro-Ride.

"I think I'm going to pass," Baffert said. "She just doesn't like the track. What can you do?

"She looks good. It's frustrating. I'm not going to pre-enter because I don't want the temptation to change my mind."

Indian Blessing, who has won 10 of 16 lifetime for $2,995,420, was beaten over the Pro-Ride by Ventura (also a Grade 1 winner on turf) in last year's Filly & Mare Sprint, though she still finished second in that race

Rachel Alexandra and Indian Blessing aren't the only top horses whose connections are ducking the Breeders' Cup's encore performance at Santa Anita. It's official that the very fast (for six furlongs) Fabulous Strike will not appear at Santa Anita, either. The horse is 14-for-21 lifetime on dirt, but was beaten sixth lengths in a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Sprint on Pro-Ride last year. Trainer Todd Beattie is already looking forward to the Breeders' Cup Sprint on real dirt at Churchill Downs.

Changing their minds at the last minute and deciding to ship for the Cup are the connections of Kodiak Kowboy, the horse that has handed two losses to Fabulous Strike this year. Though a stakes winner on synthetic at Woodbine as a juvenile, the colt's four worst lifetime speed figures all have come on synthetic surfaces, and his connections seemed more interested in winning the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct on Nov. 28 to add an exclamation point to his stallion resume by gaining Grade 1 wins at 6, 7 and 8 furlongs.

It's good to see that Kodiak Kowboy, at least, most likely will appear.

I'm a fan of the Breeders' Cup's traveling road-show format. And I think it's no small surprise that the first time the Breeders' Cup decided to leave its tents staked at the same track for two years in a row, troubles commenced. Especially since that track is a synthetic surface.

We almost certainly won't see defections like these from the Cup next year, at Churchill.

And though the sites such as Woodbine and Arlington Park -- past host sites now switched to synthetics -- still are names in the mix for future renewals, I'm wondering how long it will be until the next Breeders' Cup is scheduled over a "plastic" racetrack.

If Breeders' Cup management is wise, I would say it shouldn't be in 2011, either.

Pioneerof the Nile at career terminus: 'Twas a short trip

Ahmed Zayat's Pioneerof The Nile, winner of four straight graded-stakes before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby to Mine That Bird, has been retired due to a "soft tissue injury."

The injury wasn't fully described; only referenced as "a little filling in his leg" discovered by trainer Bob Baffert and staff.

The Blood-Horse -- in another notorious "edited press release" -- apparently is accepting Zayat Sables' labeling of the horse as "one of the top colts of his generation." ... Do they mean "crop?" Because that at least have a chance of being true.

In fact, because The Blood-Horse apparently isn't bothering to temper anyone's editorial commentary in their self-promotional press-releases, there's all sorts of gushing about Pioneerof The Nile in the "story."

It's said that jockey Garrett Gomez chose Pioneerof The Nile over $3.7 million yearling Dunkirk for the Kentucky Derby "as a demonstration of the respect (Pioneerof The Nile) commanded." ... But wouldn't a jockey be an idiot not to take the multiple-graded-stakes winner over a horse that had only cleared the maiden and allowance ranks, Dunkirk's placing in the Florida Derby notwithstanding?

The "story" fawns over the horse's combination of stamina and speed. And Baffert, according to Zayat, was "100 percent convinced that (Pioneerof The Nile) was going to win the Breeders' Cup Classic."

Good for them. I'm not 100 percent convinced of much of anything, including whether any horse will be sound and fit enough to race on Breeders' Cup weekend (theirs won't be), let alone win the biggest race on the card.

I'm not necessarily knocking Pioneerof The Nile, although I won't fawn over him, either. He was a talented horse who won half of his 10 lifetime starts and more than $1.6 million.

But I will go on record that 10 starts doesn't impress me. And his sire, Empire Maker, made all of eight before retiring unsound as a 3-year-old and not making it to the Breeders' Cup Classic. (Though Bobby Frankel called him the "best horse I have ever trained.") And while I hate to point fingers, here's the Unbridled line again, which also includes the aforementioned Dunkirk (by Unbridled's Song) who likewise is presently on the shelf due to injury.

"Thank God I'll get to see his progeny," says Zayat.

Well, for eight or 10 races, anyway.

Who's afraid of big, bad Rachel? All but three.

The Daily Racing Form reports that the connections of only three fillies appear to have the fortitude to face juggernaut Rachel Alexandra Saturday in the Mother Goose S.-G1 at Belmont Park.

Justwhistledixie, scratched-out due to a bruised foot from the Kentucky Oaks that Rachel dominated on May 1 at Churchill Downs, won't be one of them. Her trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, said Monday that Saturday was too soon to bring his filly back after she was beaten by Gabby's Golden Gal as the 4/5 favorite in her return to the races June 7 in the Acorn S.-G1. Justwhistledixie will be pointed to the 7-furlong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8, instead.

But Acorn winner Gabby's Golden Gal won't be racing Rachel Saturday, either. Her trainer, Bob Baffert, said the filly bounced back well from her Acorn win (after which she suffered heat exhaustion), but would make her next start in the Prioress S.-G1 on July 4 instead.

"She's on the Indian Blessing route," said Baffert, invoking the name of his charge who won both the Prioress and Test last year.

So who does that leave?

Flashing, winner of the Nassau County S.-G3; Don't Forget Gil, winner of the Florida Oaks-G3; and Edward P. Evans' VA-bred Malibu Prayer, who has won her last two starts by a combined 20 1/4 lengths, but hardly against such competition.

I understand Rachel seems invincible among fillies. But last time I checked, second place in a $300,000 race would still pay in the vicinity of $75,000, third place around $30,000, fourth- and fifth-places are still paydays and you'd think the connections of at least four other fillies would be willing to race for the Grade 1 blacktype that is bestowed on both second and third.

Apparently not.

Certainly it looks like Rachel will crush these three. But the connections of two out of the three will be celebrating a healthy (and all-too-easy) addition of a Grade 1 placing to their fillies' page, provided everyone comes home safe and sound.