Fiscal Policy salvages something from the week

A week that began so promising -- with a victory from the first of 21 entries worldwide, including 13 potential maiden-breakers -- has ended in pretty disappointing fashion.

A stakes-placing by a filly who was already a stakes-winner becomes the end-of-week news of note.

FISCAL POLICY, who already earned catalog blacktype with a win this summer in the Bassinet Stakes at River Downs, bounced back from a poor finish in the Delta Downs Princess S.-G3 to finish a clear second in the Letellier Memorial Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds. Fastation, the favorite at a little less than 3/2 odds, won by 3 1/2 lengths, but Fiscal Policy, sent off at 5/1, was 2 3/4 lengths clear of third-place Street Storm (5/2).

Final time for six furlongs was 1:11.19.

Robert L. Dodd bred the bay filly in Florida. I recommended Fiscal Policy (Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook) as Hip 801 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. She comes from decent family, though her dam was unraced, and I liked her 10-flat eighth-mile drill. But I'd hoped she would be available for maybe a few dollars less than the average Wildcat Heir foal, and she ended up selling for much more -- $140,000.

In five starts, she's collected two wins, a stakes win and stakes-placing, and has earned $71,080. So Fiscal Policy is halfway toward recouping that initial investment for Klaravich Stables and W.H. Lawrence.

I think trainer Tom Amoss might be back on track with this one after she flopped in the mile-and-a-sixteenth Delta Princess, a race that I believe is beyond what might be a sprinter's pedigree.

Also Saturday, Grade 3 winner GOURMET DINNER took a shot at G1 company, shipping to Hollywood Park for the CashCall Futurity. He came up short (in a race delayed more than 30 minutes by the winner's requiring re-shod); beaten by five lengths by Comma to the Top and finishing a head behind Clubhouse Ride for third. J P's Gusto was second. Gourmet Dinner did add $60,000 to his bankroll, running his juvenile-season earnings to $869,660, by far tops among the 187 2-year-olds I recommended from this year's sales.

On the subject of the class in general, it was a rough week. A pair of winners picked up second-place finishes, and a maiden also finished second. But several others disappointed, even a couple of favorites, and the class suffered three scratches, two in maiden races.

For the season the 187-member sales class has sent 113 of its number to post at least once (60.4 percent starters), with 46 winners, or 24.6 percent of all selections and 40.7 percent of those to race. They've won 64 of 428 starts (15 percent), and hit he board in 43.9 percent of all starts. Collective earnings are $3,295,506, which averages to $7,700 per start and $29,164 per starter.

Follow the class in its entirety at this former post.

Breeders' Cup pre-entries include two from tips

After much anticipation, the pre-entries for the 2010 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs were finalized on Monday released on Wednesday -- a record 184 horses nominated to 14 races.

Among the 61 pre-entries by the connections of juveniles, five horses were cross-entered on both dirt and turf, meaning 56 horses were submitted for the draw. Two of those were members of my sales-tip Class of 2010: Delightful Mary (Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy) and Rough Sailing (Mizzen Mast-Moussica, by Woodman).

More about them later.

There were 18 entries for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, 13 for the Juvenile Fillies on the main track, a sparse 11 pre-entries for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and 19 for the male division of the Juvenile Turf. Horses can be cross-entered in two races on pre-entry day, but by Tuesday (Nov. 2), connections must have made a final decision on which race they're running and pay the final entry fees at that time.

The pre-entry story at Breederscup.com states that each of the 14 races is limited to 14 starters, plus up to two on the also-eligible list. This is contradictory to the "pre-entry procedures" and rules as detailed elsewhere on the site, which make provisions for some races of only 12 horses and flatly state under Entry Procedures: "There will be no also-eligible list or scratch time." (If Breederscup.com needs a copyeditor and fact-checker, I happen to know -- and be -- one who is unemployed.)

Owners Darrell & Evelyn Yates and trainer Wayne Catalano, connections of Jordy Y, who is No. 4 in order of mention (is that entry preference?) on the linked list above in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, would rather she run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she's fifth on the list and will surely get in. Andrew Rosen's Theyskens' Theory, trained by Brian Meehan, also was cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies (first preference of her connections, last of 13 in draw-priority) and the Juvenile Fillies Turf (second choice of her connections, 15th in preference for making the draw).

Among males, Robert Teel's and Wes Ward's Madman Diaries was entered with first-preference in the Juvenile Turf, where he ranks fifth among all entries. He stands eighth of 11 for admission to the rather lightly subscribed Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Two Juvenile Turf entries are also subscribed as first-preference to the Juvenile; Catesby Clay's Rogue Romance (second on the turf list and ninth among dirt entries), who is trained by Kenny McPeek, and Italian Gran Criterium-G1 winner Biondetti (12th in the turf and 10th of 11 on dirt), who is owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

Delightful Mary -- whom I tipped on this blog as a live (and likely expensive) sales prospect before she became the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR -- is 11th of 13 in entry-ranking among entries in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and will make the field if healthy to go. She gives every indication of being ready, firing a minute-flat bullet for five furlongs on Monday over the Churchill strip, fastest of 32 at the distance.

The John Oxley-owned, Mark Casse trained Limehouse filly collected two easy wins over Polytrack at Woodbine -- one sprinting and one in allowance company around two turns -- before being upset as the odds-on favorite by Wyomia in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S.-G3 her last out.

Owners Edward A. Seltzer and Beverly Anderson and trainer Daniel J. Vella -- connections of Wyomia -- shockingly to me did not enter the Vindication filly in the Juvenile Fillies, opting instead for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She sits 16th on the entry list, but will sneak into the 14-starter gate if both Jordy Y and Theyskens' Theory go in the Juvenile Fillies as their entry preferences suggest.

I think Delightful Mary looks sharp going into the race and has every reason to both move up on the switch from Polytrack to real dirt, and to handle an off-track if one is presented.

The other sales-tip to make racing's marquee day is Rough Sailing, who stands eighth in admission preference among pre-entries for the Juvenile Turf; seventh if you consider Rogue Romance's likely defection to the dirt division. I'm glad to see the colt owned by Jack Smith III and trained by Michael Stidham headed back to the grass, the surface on which he convincingly (with a huge late kick, despite a troubled trip) broke his maiden going two turns at Arlington Park.

Rough Sailing is a gutsy horse and battled his way to a place-finish behind Major Gain (also nominated to the Juvenile Turf) on Polytrack in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. But his third race was a step up to Grade 1 company on Keeneland's Poly in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, a race in which he again had some trouble, but kept grinding in the stretch to finish sixth, beaten 10.

Jockey Michael Baze has said that he thinks Rough Sailing has a better closing kick on the lawn, so while the Juvenile Turf is more heavily subscribed, I'd rather see him go back to grass than try a new surface again, the dirt this time. (Maybe later.)

I had Rough Sailing categorized as a "Priority 1" on a 48-horse short-list for a client seeking bargain runners out of the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this May. After seeing him up-close, I didn't expect him to stay in our price range -- and he didn't -- but at a price of $40,000, he still sold for nearly 20 percent less than the average horse at that auction.

While it will be exciting to watch those two on one of racing's biggest weekends, the pre-entries were a little disappointing to me. I had hoped for potentially two or three more horses from my sales-tips to be among the pre-entries.

RIGOLETTA -- a 33/1 upsetter of Juvenile Fillies third-ranked Tell a Kelly when they met in the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at Hollywood Park -- was a lock to make the field for the B.C., but would have to be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup at a cost of $180,000. Sealing her non-entry was a recent announcement by trainer Dan Hendricks declaring the Thor-Bred Stable-owned filly out of the Breeders' Cup with a minor splint injury.

Hendricks said he wanted to be sure Rigoletta was ready for the winter/spring season at Santa Anita (over a brand-new dirt track that I think moves her up vs. synthetics). Curiously -- unless the fee was paid prior to discovery of her injury -- Rigoletta was among the nominations announced this week for the $500,000 Delta Princess S.-G3 to be run at Delta Downs on Nov. 20.

Also on that whopping, 117-filly Delta Princess nominee list are sales-tips FISCAL POLICY and Rigoletta's fellow Cal-shipper and maiden-winner-only Benecia.

Another filly I had fully expected to be pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup -- and probably cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Fillies Turf -- was the Bob Baffert-trained, Jill Baffert-owned Alienation. A debut winner on grass (in fleet time and a thrilling photo) and G1/G2-placed on dirt at Saratoga, she flopped after breaking awkwardly on synthetic in that Oak Leaf Stakes won by Rigoletta. I'm not sure the speedball daughter of Rock Hard Ten needed to be in the Juvenile Fillies, going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt (though I think she'll eventually stay a route of ground if they can get her to rate), but I would have liked to see her incredible early foot employed in trying to steal the Juvenile Fillies Turf on the front end.

Alienation, whom I tipped out of OBSAPR and has earned $104,000 off a $60,000 purchase, was nominated two weeks ago (after her Oak Leaf also-ran) for the Pocahontas S.-G2 at a mile on the main track at Churchill this weekend. Those entries haven't been drawn-up yet, and I'm curious to see if Alienation is among them or whether the Bafferts have decided to rest her a spell. Fiscal Policy happens to be nominated to the Pocahontas, as well.

Finally, I thought there was a chance GOURMET DINNER might make the Breeders' Cup at Churchill. The $40,000 sales-tip of mine out of OBSAPR's first session was 3-for-3 with two stakes wins and seemed a possibility to follow filly Awesome Feather into the Breeders' Cup as undefeated queen and king of the Florida Stallion Series of restricted races at Calder.

Then he was upset in the third leg of the series, the $350,000 In Reality Stakes, by $94 shocker REPRIZED HALO -- yet another OBSAPR sales tip of mine, who sold a day after Gourmet Dinner for a paltry $23,000. That certainly derailed any designs the connections had on an unbeaten, championship season for Gourmet Dinner. Though looking at the small group of nominees -- 11 juvenile males, one of which is already pointed to the turf instead and including a couple who probably can't get the distance -- it still might have been worth a shot.

Instead, both Gourmet Dinner and Reprized Halo are among the incredible 241 horses nominated to the $1 million Delta Jackpot, also on Nov. 20 at Delta Downs. Also included in that vast list of nominees is 2010 sales-tip Category Killer, whose two races thus far include a five-length runner-up finish to now stakes-winning sales tip PULGARCITO in their mutual debut at Hoosier Park, and a return to the scene of that "sales-tip exacta" for a 15-plus-length maiden-special romp on Sept. 30.

Category Killer fired a 36-flat bullet at Churchill Tuesday and is also nominated to the $100,000 Iroquois S.-G3 to be run at that track on Sunday. Plus, he's listed as an entry on the overnights for a Saturday evening allowance event at Delta Downs. Busy little fellow.

With the addition of stakes-placer Spring Jump on Wednesday, the list of 2010 sales-tip stakes horses has reached a dozen. In addition to those mentioned, stakes placers include still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (second in G3s on turf and Poly at Woodbine), G3-placed Stopspendingmaria and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'Em Away.

Follow the entire sales-tip Class of 2010 in the list at the end of this link.

Big thumbs-up for Pulgarcito in Zia stakes

PULGARCITO -- a gelding whose name means "Tom Thumb" in Spanish -- earned positive reviews Sunday afternoon at Zia Park in Hobbs, N.M., as he stalked leader Jam'n Jackson for a half-mile, then grabbed the lead in the stretch and drew clear to win the $55,000 Governor's Cup Stakes by two lengths.

Jam'n Jackson faded to third behind Race for Jake.

Ken Tohill handled the ride aboard the winner for trainer Steve Asmussen. Tohill and Pulgarcito sat in second, a length or two off very fast 22.38 and 44.51 opening fractions set by Jam'n Jackson and Alejandro Medellin, before pouncing in the stretch. Final time for the six furlongs was 1:10.84.

The gelding was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst.

With the win, Pulgarcito runs his career mark to a pair of wins and a second from three four starts, for $61,170. He also becomes the fifth stakes winner, and the 11th horse stakes-placed or better, from my 187-member Class of 2010; horses I selected and tipped on this blog (or for a client) at various 2-year-old sales this year.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was catalogued as Hip 849 in the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. He failed to sell when the bidding topped-out at $37,000.

After he failed to sell at OBSAPR, he was successfully hawked for $40,000 at the OBSOPN sale in June. He races for Heiligbrodt Racing Stable.

The gelding won his debut on Aug. 18 at Hoosier Park, wiring a maiden special weight field by more than five lengths; a field that included runner-up and fellow debuting sales-tip Category Killer, who returned to Hoosier in similar company his next out to win by more than 15 lengths.

Pulgarcito then shipped to Oklahoma's Remington Park, where he finished second to a stakes-placed horse named Brickyard Fast (who would later race unsuccessfully in Grade 1 company) in a $75,000 optional-claimer. In his third start, Pulgarcito trailed early and never recovered in finishing fifth in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington.

More forwardly placed Sunday, as he had been in his first two starts, he performed in similar, strong fashion.

I broke a rule of mine (so maybe it's more a "guideline") in recommending Pulgarcito, whose sire, Greatness, was a winning racehorse, but could boast no stakes-quality performances at the track. Still, Greatness as the son of Mr. Prospector -- one of the 20th century's prepotent sires -- and of the mare Harbour Club (Danzig), a sharp juvenile and track record-setting Grade 3 stakes winner, was undeniably well-bred. He's passed some of those good qualities along to his get, as well. Going into the sale, Greatness had sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals -- though only one prior stakes winner.

Among those prior winners by Greatness is a full sibling to Pulgarcito, named Great Attack, who won twice in 2009 at age 2. So particularly after Pulgarcito blazed a 10-flat eighth at the OBSAPR under-tack show, all signs pointed to an early winner.

After the weekend's action, 99 of the 187 sales tips have now made at least one start as a juvenile; that's 52.9 percent. There are 34 winners, for 18.2 percent of all selections and 34.3 percent of those to race.

The class has now won 45 of 282 starts, and though the pace of victories has declined a bit, that's still 16 percent. (Well, 15.9574468 percent, to be a bit more precise. At that point, we can round up.)

They've placed another 55 times and were the show-finishers in another 27 races, for 35.5 percent in the exacta and 45 percent on the board.

Total earnings are inching closer to $2 million, with $1,968,603 banked by the 99 starters. That's $6,981 per start, and an average of $19,885 per starter.

Besides Pulgarcito, stakes winners from my sales recommendations include: RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S.-G1, $180,820); two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (3-for-4 lifetime, 1st Florida Stallion Dr. Fager S., 1st Florida Stallion Affirmed S., 2nd Florida Stallion In Reality St., $209,660); REPRIZED HALO (1st Florida Stallion In Reality S., handing Gourmet Dinner his only loss, $254,016); and FISCAL POLICY (Coca-Cola Bassinet S., $54,080).

Of the six additional stakes-placers, five of those have come in graded company, with seven second-place finishes. They include: Alienation (2nd Spinaway S.-G1, 2nd Adirondack S.-G2, $104,000); still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (Summer S.-G3T, Grey S.-G3A, $119,845); Delightful Mary (2nd Mazarine S.-G3, $112,377); Stopspendingmaria (2nd Schuylerville S.-G3, $59,167); Rough Sailing (2nd Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3, $36,200); and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'Em Away (2nd Osiris S.-N, $16,053).

Follow the exploits of all my sales picks, and a few pans, in the lengthy list at the bottom of this former post.

He's getting warmer ... warmer ...

Whenever and wherever you next see Rockin Heat entered for a race, bet him to place. Though he must soon be destined to win.

The Rock Hard Ten colt is among the most consistent of my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010. He's a gutsy, talented horse who -- by trackside reports -- is really growing into a good-sized frame.

But in the four times he's raced as a 2-year-old, he hasn't quite found enough at the finish, to finish first.

After getting beat a head and a length during August in maiden special weight company on the Polytrack at Woodbine, Bear Stables entered the colt in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes on the turf. He again finished second by just a length, to the Todd Pletcher-shipper Pluck.

Back on the main track Sunday at Woodbine, Rockin Heat contested the Grey S.-G3 against a strong field of juveniles. And in a four-horse blanket finish, Rockin Heat finished with a rush on the outside to -- yet again -- finish second, this time by a half-length to WinStar Farm's Blue Laser, one of the horses who handed him a prior defeat in the maiden ranks.

It was the best result for the 187-horse sales-tip class on a Sunday that saw a third, two fourths, a fifth and a ninth in various maiden races, a fourth-place finish by Hold Still in a Grade 2 race in Puerto Rico, and stakes winner FISCAL POLICY scratched-out as the morning-line favorite of the E.L. Gaylord Stakes at Remington Park by her trainer, Tom Amoss.

Rockin Heat was an $85,000 purchase when catalogued as Hip 97 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. I like the early work by his young sire, Rock Hard Ten, the colt's dam, Makin Heat, was a stakes winner at Laurel and Delaware Park, second dam Warmedbythesun won 15 races out of 93 starts from ages 2 to 8, and third dam Tongario bore nine winners, including (besides Warmedbythesun's 15 wins) the victors of 17, 10, 10 and eight career races.

I could tell on the breeze video that this colt was going to be a big horse. Yet he breezed 21.3, showing he was precocious, too.

And he just keeps getting better. Surely that will eventually result in victory.

But, after a slow week, the win percentage of the class is in decline.

So far, 89 of the 187 selected horses have made their debut; that is 47.6 percent to race. Of those, 33 are winners, for 17.7 percent of all recommended horses and 37.1 percent of those to race.

The class has made 249 combined starts, winning 42 (16.9 percent), placing another 47 times (35.7 percent in the exacta) and showing 24 times (45.4 percent in the money). They have earned a combined $1,553,534, which averages $6,239 per start.

Click here to follow the careers of all 187 horses I recommended from selected juvenile sales.

Finding the bright side in a disappointing weekend; Delightful Mary now graded stakes-placed

Heading into the Columbus Day weekend, I had high hopes for my blog's sales-tip Class of 2010.

Beginning Thursday, the class of 187 runners -- which have already achieved a few impressive accomplishments -- had 15 maidens going in 12 races on two continents, two winners seeking their second and third lifetime victories, respectively, and five horses with live chances in six stakes races, four of those graded.

After Saturday's racing, the group had gone winless from a dozen starts. There were a couple of good efforts in the mix; three maidens finished second and another third, for instance. And the two winners were each beaten less than a length for third place in steps up against tougher, non-stakes company.

But from three stakes starts, a trio with real potential came home empty-handed (win-wise, anyway) with Pulgarcito a distant fifth in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park Friday (a race won in barely more than 1:09 flat for six furlongs) and Rough Sailing a wide and troubled sixth in the Grade 1 Dixiana at Keeneland on Saturday.

The only stakes-placing was a new addition to the stakes-horse list, Delightful Mary, who finished second as the heavy favorite behind Wyomia in the Mazarine S.-G3 at Woodbine in Canada.

Delightful Mary was the $500,000 sales-topper from the April Ocala sale of 2-year-olds in training. She came into the Mazarine off two victories by open lengths at Woodbine, going six furlongs among maidens and at a mile-seventy while hand-ridden in allowance company. But Wyomia got the jump on everyone Saturday -- after a late veterinarian's scratch at the gate caused the field to be unloaded and reloaded -- and after setting moderate fractions, she had plenty in the tank to hold off Delightful Mary at the wire.

The Grade 3 placing did pay more than $44,000 in U.S. currency, elevating Delightful Mary's earnings from three starts to a tidy $112,377. ... A start, at least, toward paying back the sum plunked down for her at OBSAPR on behalf of owner John Oxley. And she should have plenty of good, winning days ahead.

We'll discuss her more at length on those days.

On Sunday and Monday of the holiday weekend, eight more maidens get a chance to collect their first victories, one of those in stakes company. Rockin Heat is 3-for-3 at finishing second, including his last start in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine. Today, he'll take a shot at breaking maiden in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes on Woodbine's Polytrack, though he seems to be drawn-in amongst the toughest company of his life.

Other stakes starters include FISCAL POLICY -- one of the class' three stakes winners thus far -- trying to run her overall win-streak to three in the E.L. Gaylord Stakes at Remington, and dual-winner Hold Still in the Grade 2 Clasico Dia de la Raza at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico.

The class of 2010 includes 33 winners. Through 243 starts, they have combined for 42 wins (17.3 percent strike rate), 46 second-place finishes (36.2 percent in the exacta) and 23 show finishes (45.7 percent in the money). Collective earnings have reached $1,495,772, or $6,155 per start.

Follow the entire sales-tip Class of 2010 in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Run tell that! ... Sales-tip Rigoletta at nearly 33/1 upsets odds-on Tell a Kelly in Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes

When odds-on favorite Tell a Kelly tried to bull her way through between the leaders and onto the lead at the top of the stretch in the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood Park Sunday afternoon, track announcer Vic Stauffer said the Darley Debutante champion "(had) momentum."

But 33/1 Rigoletta was having none of it.

The Dan Hendricks-trained, David Flores-ridden underdog battled back on the outside (as did early leader Indian Gracey on the rail) and it was a three-horse head-knocker to the finish. The eighth-mile gut-check was won by the long-shot, Rigoletta, by a half-length, making her the first graded stakes winner of my sales-tip class of 2010 -- and a Grade 1 winner at that. (Race video at Bloodhorse.com.)

I was shocked when the morning-line odds were posted for this race. Rigoletta was installed as the co-long-shot at 12/1, despite her third place finish behind Tell a Kelly in the aforementioned Darley Debutante. Izshelegal, a graded-placed maiden who was fourth in the Debutante, was just 4/1 on the morning line. And that was just the beginning.

I e-mailed a friend about the race; subject line: "WTF on odds for the Oak Leaf?"

I understood 8/5 on Tell a Kelly. I could get that Rigoletta's fellow sales-tip, Alienation, was 7/2, although I thought she'd be a bad bet here. That filly's early speed was likely to be tested by Indian Gracey (but wasn't, since Alienation made an awkward break and never quite caught up to the pace). But my mind was boggled that G1-placed (on synth) Rigoletta would have the same odds as Fairplex maiden-breaking stakes-winner True Way of Grace, whom Rigoletta defeated (considerably) in breaking her maiden.

And there was simply no possible explanation for why Pacific Pride was 4/1 on the morning line off 78 and 79 speed figures at Del Mar in finishing fourth and first at the maiden level. Rigoletta debuted at Hollywood with an Equibase speed figure of 68 when she was unplaced at first asking. But her maiden-breaking win at Del Mar scored an 81, and she improved to 89 in finishing third in the Debutante. (By contrast, Tell a Kelly scored a 101 for her Debutante win.)

As I told my friend, in essence, if Rigoletta kept improving as she had each race prior, and Tell a Kelly bounced even a little, an upset wasn't out of the realm of possibility.

Imagine my amazement as I watched the Oak Tree meeting live at Calracing.com and Rigoletta drifted higher and higher -- at one point not far from post time sitting at 44/1, highest on the board, while a horse she'd beaten in their mutual last race, Izshelegal, was still at 6/1.

Rigoletta ended up going off as the second-longest price at 32.7/1, while True Way of Grace was 34.5/1. Tell a Kelly was sent away at 1/2.

When the gates opened, Indian Gracey sprang to a length and a half lead, aided in no small part by Alienation's clumsy beginning. Rigoletta, who had closed from deep to break her maiden and to place third in the Debutante, was running second in this one. I thought Rigoletta might be closer to the pace in this race, as she'd been working very quickly of late. But even Hendricks and Flores were surprised at how keen she was to go on.

"She was in the bridle the whole way," Flores said. "She's got one of those long strides, so I was surprised she was so aggressive early."

Alienation pulled at Martin Garcia and hustled her own way into third, but would eventually fade to sixth of seven. Indian Gracey was game on the rail, but couldn't quite keep up. And while Tell a Kelly did gain a momentary lead, it was Rigoletta who prevailed.

"When Tell a Kelly bumped her, it got her into the race more," said Flores of Rigoletta. "... She got aggressive and fought back. I thought I was going to get beat, but that seemed to make her madder."

And "madder" made her a winner.

I recommended Rigoletta on this blog before she sold for a comparatively affordable $35,000 as Hip 726 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. She was bred in Florida and consigned to the sale by Ocala Stud, and now races in the colors of Thor-Bred Stable LLC.

I was drawn to the daughter of Concerto-Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook, for several reasons. Most eye-catching was her 21-flat breeze for a quarter. But just as important, she already had a stakes-placed full brother, Evening Concerto, and their dam was a winning half-sister to 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

This also happens to be the female family of another of my sales tips, GOURMET DINNER (Trippi), whose dam, Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus) is likewise a winning half-sister to Rigoletta's dam and the aforementioned stakes horses. Gourmet Dinner so far is 3-for-3 with victories in the Dr. Fager Stakes and the Affirmed Stakes, both at Calder, for $137,390. That colt, campaigned by Our Sugar Bear Stable, was a bargain just like his cousin, costing $40,000.

"Pretty much a racehorse family," I wrote in recommending the filly who later would be named Rigoletta.

And it's pretty much a good year for this accomplished, under-valued, Florida-rooted female family.

Rigoletta's victory qualifies as a "win and you're in" for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. But there's a catch. She isn't Breeders' Cup-nominated. So Thor-Bred Stable will have to foot a supplemental nomination fee equal to 9 percent of the race's total purse -- that is, $180,000, since the race is valued at $2 million -- if they want their girl with the automatic bid, to actually be allowed to use it.

"My vote is we run. No guts, no glory," said her trainer, Hendricks. "You're going for the championship. I'd love to go."

And of course, I'd love to cheer for Rigoletta at Churchill.

I also hope to see Alienation there, but I think Bob Baffert should switch his wife Natalie's horse back to the grass, where she broke her maiden. Alienation, a $60,000 OBSAPR buy, was G1- and G2-placed on dirt (once in the slop) at Saratoga, as well. The sixth-place finish Sunday, when she was compromised a bit at the start, is the first time she's finished worse than second in four starts. But I think the daughter of Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West, stands a better chance in the Juvenile Filly Turf, where her early speed might control the race, than in the Juvenile Fillies, where there's always one or two or three others who are likewise quite keen to go on early.

Rigoletta's victory means my 187 juvenile sales tips of 2010 now boast their third stakes winner. Apart from Rigoletta and Gourmet Dinner, FISCAL POLICY is the other black-type winner. Alienation (G1, G2) is one of five stakes-placers, three others also graded, including Rough Sailing (G3), Stopspendingmaria (G3), still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (G3), and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'em Away.

The victory by Rigoletta is the 41st from 229 starts by the Class of 2010, a strike rate of 17.9 percent. The selections have also placed second 42 times, or 36.3 percent in the exacta. With 22 show finishes, the in-the-money rate for the group is 45.9 percent.

Combined earnings have now reached $1,423,282, or $6,215 per start.

Follow the progress of all 187 sales picks, and a few pans, in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Two tough days and another graded near-miss

The week that started well on Wednesday and Thursday with sales-pick winners in maiden races at Camarero and Fairplex is straggling home a bit with only Sunday's racing left to go. Even the favorites are falling short or outright flopping, though at least the Class of 2010 has added another graded stakes-placer, the fourth, to its roster.

Rough Sailing (pictured), an impressive maiden winner around two turns on grass at Arlington Park, was sent off as the 9/5 favorite off a 4/1 morning line in a switch to the synthetic main track there for the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. As in his debut, the Mizzen Mast colt tried to close late for the win, but this time he came up short, losing by a length to a More Than Ready maiden, Major Gain, but persevering on the rail to nip 5/2 morning-line favorite Caleb's Posse in a photo for second.

Jockey Michael Baze said Rough Sailing got a good trip this time, but just has a better kick on turf. I hope that means we might next see Rough Sailing in a race like the Oct. 10 Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland, back on the grass and with another sixteenth in which to close.

I tabbed Rough Sailing as a "Priority 1" horse for a client seeking bargain runners at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May. I liked the colt, who was Hip 250, fairly well on paper (his dam is a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle), very much admired his 23.2/35.2 breeze over a slow dirt track that isn't his preferred surface, and honestly never figured we'd get him in our price range, though he was just a $12,000 yearling. Consignor True South LLC urged me to look him over thoroughly and keep him on our list, but I was right, his $40,000 price -- while an undoubtable bargain at this stage -- was more than we came to pay.

The consignor commented that the colt later to be named Rough Sailing was "a nice horse" and "very aggressive." I liked his front end considerably, his back end a little less so, and remarked in my notes (with underlining): "Big feet." A large hoof is considered by some the hallmark of a grass horse, and with this colt being by Mizzen Mast (a better dirt horse, but from the Cozzene/Caro turf line) and out of a Woodman mare, his turf aptitude doesn't surprise me. Not being huge behind also might hint at why he's been a little slow in the early going of both races -- not a blast-from-the-gate, sprinter type -- and that he's best-suited to covering a bit of ground, another trait that makes sense considering his pedigree.

As I confided to my friends on Twitter, it is stirring and rewarding to realize you've laid your eyes and hands on such a horse before he's ever raced a step and concluded, "This one is the type."

Other Saturday action saw 5/2 morning-line favorite Reward the Lady -- second in her debut -- disappointing with a sixth-place finish among MCL $25K-$20K fillies at Philly. Penny's Boat, a debuter and good-driller, was sent out for her first start on turf at Belmont, where she straggled home seventh behind a blazing 1:09 for six furlongs run by Atlantic Voyage, a full sister to Grade 1 winner Stormello. I'm a bit puzzled by the connections choosing grass in the first place for the bow of Penny's Boat, a daughter of Songandaprayer out of a Valid Wager mare; watch for her to improve on the main track. And, what I thought was a live filly at 6/1 in her debut, After Words, was vet-scratched at Monmouth.

On Friday, what I thought were four strong chances for wins turned into just three placing. Among them, What's the Rumpus picked up a third at Fairplex and Reprized Halo finally hit the board with a second place in a $25,000 maiden-claimer at Calder. I liked Reprized Halo enough to tip him at OBSAPR, but his connections have done the colt no favors. He came close to placing at the maiden special level and they've since thrown the boy to the wolves in a pair of stakes races. On Friday, he managed to strike the lead in the stretch but couldn't hold on. At least it appears those ill-considered stakes beat-downs haven't completely broken the horse's resolve.

I was disappointed Friday evening when the connections of second-time-starter Lost Webos (fourth at the maiden special level in his debut) opted for a $25K maiden-claimer at Penn rather than the maiden special on Saturday at Philly for which the horse was cross-entered, and he still couldn't hit the board. Lost Webos was a close-up fourth at Penn Friday, but that was less than I (and gamblers) expected.

Friday's biggest hopes in my mind rested on an 8/1 morning-line shot, first-timer Surprise Strike, whom I couldn't believe was sent off at 20/1 in maiden special company at Presque Isle Downs. The Stormy Atlantic colt rated early, came through on the rail, and just missed by a half-length, finishing second in his debut in a six and a half-furlong race run in a pretty fair (for 2-year-olds) 1:17 and change. He will not be 20/1 next out.

I remember Surprise Strike well as Hip 380 at that same Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training, the first (and presently only) auction at which I've worked as a hired bloodstock advisor. When I asked consignor True South LLC to see the horse, and he was led from the dark of his stall, as his shoulders hit sunlight, my first muttered words were, "Holy shit!"

I loved that the colt was short-coupled, with a nice shoulder and great withers. He was lighter in the hind than I would prefer, but might fill out. The consignor assured me that the son of a stakes-winning Unbridled mare was better even than his pretty fair 23-flat move would indicate, saying the horse was (literally) snake-bitten on the muzzle the morning of his drill, and had swelling in his face and throat.

The colt was a $34,000 RNA at EASMAY, and now is trying to prove on the track that he's worth more than that. Friday's debut was a pretty fair start.

And on Thursday, hoping for my third consecutive sales-tip winner in two days, and at a huge price, Thistoo Shall Pass was sent off at 47/1 at Woodbine on the grass. Though sixth, she still was beaten less than four lengths. She's yet to hit the board in three races up in Canada, but is always within hailing distance of the winner, so I have the feeling her connections will keep trying Thistoo Shall Pass at the maiden special level rather than dropping her in class for a win.

Among my four sales tips in for Sunday are two more morning-line favorites, Delightful Mary in a two-turn allowance on the main track at Woodbine, and On Appeal dropping for a $12,500 maiden tag at Calder. Both have stories behind them.

Delightful Mary was the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR and won for fun her first out in Canada, covering six furlongs on synthetic in 1:09 and change without much being asked. And, much like his Calder-mate, On Appeal hit the board a couple of times among maidens before his connections made the ill-conceived choice of running him in stakes company, where he finished behind everyone, including Reprized Halo.

I honestly expected Delightful Mary to turn up next in a stakes race; after her debut, I wouldn't even have feared running her in Sunday's Swynford at Woodbine, against colts. Perhaps this two-turn test is a prep for the Oct. 9 Mazarine Breeders Cup. S.-G3 for fillies at Woodbine.

As for On Appeal, if his connections didn't break him by sending him out against stakes horses, he really should win now that he's been dropped like a stone to maiden $12,500. Look for him to be right there at the finish or nowhere, and if it's nowhere, I'd blame the clubbing he took in that recent stakes race.

Also in action Sunday are Z Breeze, a live debuter at 6/1 in Race 4 at Calder, where he gets a top rider in Manoel Cruz, and Kuhlu, 5/1 in Race 9 at Arlington. Not much of a fan of Kuhlu in this spot, as a daughter of Ghostzapper being sent out on grass. If that race somehow washes-off onto the main track, I think it helps her.

Following Saturday's action, the sales-tip list of maiden-breakers remains stuck at 26 of 187 horses recommended, or 13.9 percent. With 31 wins from now 178 starts, their strike rate has dipped to 17.4 percent. With 30 places and 17 shows, the ITM rate continues to hover around 44 percent, at 43.8.

The Class of 2010 has seven stakes horses, or 3.75 percent. The other six besides Rough Sailing include: two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER ($137,390); FISCAL POLICY ($54,080); Saratoga G1/G2-placed Alienation ($104,000); Del Mar G1-placed Rigoletta ($60,820); Spa G3-placed Stopspendingmaria ($59,167); and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'em Away ($14,574).

The class has earned a combined $989,242, which averages to $5,557.54 per start.

Follow the entire class in the list at the end of this former post.

(Thanks to Jamie Newell for the Rough Sailing photo from the Arlington-Washington Futurity. Check out Jamie's blog and her stellar photography at Smugmug.com, Flickr and Facebook. You can't miss her at a racetrack; she doubles as the turf-photography world's loveliest hat model.)

Sales tips end day with three wins, 5-for-6 in the money and G1 blacktype at Del Mar

Already sporting a maiden winner (in a "sales-tip exacta" finish) and a stakes winner at River Downs, my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010 collected an allowance win at Penn National and Grade 1 blacktype at Del Mar in two Saturday evening races.

Scoring the big-time catalog update was Rigoletta (Concerto-Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook), who was supplemented to the Darley Debutante S.-G1 at Del Mar at a total cost of $13,750 to run. It proved to be a wise move by trainer Dan Hendricks and owners Thor-Bred Stable LLC (Pavla and Erik Nygaard) when Rigoletta and jockey Mike Smith rumbled home third at nearly 31/1 behind Tell a Kelly and favorite Wickedly Perfect.

Rigoletta earned $30,000 for the placing, far more than paying back her owners' financial confidence in her. More important, she greatly elevated her residual value by stamping her own page with Grade 1 blacktype.

The filly, who closed at Del Mar to break maiden her last out at 12/1 odds, has now earned $60,820 in three lifetime starts.

She was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud.

I recommended Rigoletta as Hip 726 at OBS April, where she breezed 21-flat and yet sold for just $35,000. I particularly liked that she was a full sister to stakes-placed Evening Concerto, and that her dam was a half-sister to 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

About a half-hour earlier, on the other side of the country, sales-tip Spring Jump was winning her second consecutive race at Penn National, wiring an allowance field by more than four lengths. After an unplaced debut, Spring Jump has been first out of the gate and never headed in her next two efforts.

She paid $10.20 to win.

The dark bay filly by Jump Start-Meg's Answer, by West Acre was just a $19,000 purchase as Hip 234 at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May in Timonium, Md. I screened her among four dozen horses recommended to a client in the market for a bargain runner. He didn't get her (buying a different horse, earlier in the sale), but surely owners Dorado Circle Stables LLC have gotten a bargain, considering Spring Jump has already provided them with two win photos and $39,660 in earnings.

Spring Jump was ridden by Luis Belmonte and trained for the win by Flint Stites.

She was bred in Florida by Jeanne H. Cutrona & Jerry M. Cutrona Sr.

Through Saturday's action, my 187 sales tips have accumulated 24 winners of 29 races from 155 starts (that's an 18.7 percent strike rate), with an in-the-money rate of 43.9 percent. The class has earned $877,232 combined, for $5,660 per start.

In addition to the G1-placed Rigoletta, the group includes multiple stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (3-for-3, $137,390), new stakes winner FISCAL POLICY ($54,080), G2-placed Alienation ($54,000) and G3-placed Stopspendingmaria ($57,500), plus non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'em Away.

Alienation and Stopspendingmaria are among the eight entries in Sunday's Spinaway S.-G1 at Saratoga.

Track the progress of my sales tips at the bottom of this former post.

Return on investment: Fiscal Policy wins Bassinet Stakes, becomes second sales-tip stakes winner

Breaking sharply and easily repelling all challengers, FISCAL POLICY drew off to win the $50,000 Coca-Cola Bassinet Stakes Saturday at River Downs.

The bay filly by Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook, becomes the second stakes winner from my 187 sales tips at this year's juvenile auctions. She debuted July 8 with a third place finish on synthetic at Arlington Park before breaking maiden by four and a quarter on dirt at Hoosier Park Aug. 15.

On Saturday, jockey Rex Stokes III got her away from the gate well, and the even-money filly dueled three-wide in the early going with second- and third-favored Sonja's Angel (2/1) and Internet Cafe (4/1). Those two faded to last and fifth of six, respectively. Stakes-placed Ruth and Neva drew within a head at the half-mile marker, but was decisively put away in the stretch to finish second. Bach Hamilton was third.

The time was just 1:13.40 for six furlongs, though Fiscal Policy set fairly brisk early fractions (22.2 for a quarter) and had plenty in reserve to dispatch the field.

Fiscal Polcy was bred in Florida by Robert L. Dodd, and is owned by Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence. She is trained by Tom Amoss.

The filly brought a stout $140,000 as Hip 801 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. I liked her 10-flat eighth, wasn't fond of an unraced dam, but did note that she'd produced a solid, non-blacktype winner from two prior foals. The second dam here is the stakes-placed Copelan mare Grand Betty, who produced Grade 3-placed POSITIVE ENERGY, and this is the female family of Grade 1 winner FAMILY ENTERPRIZE, among others.

Upon her selling for $140,000, I wrote: "I thought she might bring less than the average Wildcat Heir (which was around $74,000 at the time I tipped her), but she brought much more."

She's a good-looker, by most accounts, and that had to help her cause at the sale, as well.

At least the owners are now starting to recoup their investment, with $54,080 in earnings and catalog blacktype that elevates the value of their filly beyond what she's already banked.

Track the performance of my 187 sales picks, and a few pans, at this former post.

'Seconditis' weekend extends to graded stakes, but two more sales tips are maidens no longer

After starting an active three-day stretch with a couple of near-misses -- horses getting beaten a neck and a nose in maiden special weight races -- my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010 had a strong Sunday to cap the weekend.

The Sabbath saw a pair of fillies I selected from this year's sales clearing their maiden hurdles in their second and fourth starts, respectively, and a third filly moving forward from a first-out maiden score to place in a Grade 2 stakes race in her second lifetime effort.

Let's tout the blacktype first.

Alienation, a filly owned by Jill Baffert and trained by her hall-of-fame husband, Bob, broke her maiden in fleet fashion at first asking over the Hollywood Park grass on July 5. Baffert scratched his wife's filly from the recent Sorrento S.-G3 at Del Mar, which would have been run on synthetic, and shipped her east, where she posted a bullet work in the mud -- five furlongs in essentially a minute flat -- leading up to the Adirondack S.-G2 at Saratoga.

On Sunday at the Spa, Alienation was pressed on the pace by Miss Sarah Brown (who would finish last of 10) through fractions of 21.72 and 45.07 and disposed of everyone else in the field by at least five lengths; everyone but Position Limit, that is. The Bellamy Road filly overtook the tiring leader and drew off to win the $150,000 race by five lengths, the same margin Alienation finished ahead of third-place Coax Liberty.

Earning $30,000 for her efforts, Alienation (Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West) has now banked $54,000. She was a $60,000 purchase, so has nearly earned that back in just two starts, but has likely elevated her potential commercial value above that purchase price with G2 blacktype on her own page, and certainly has every hope for an even more promising future.

In tipping her as Hip 719 at OBSAPR, I noted that in addition to her brisk, 21-flat quarter in the under-tack show, her dam was a minor stakes winner with multiple blacktype siblings, whose second dam was a half-sister to G1 winners JUDGE ANGELUCCI, WAR and PEACE.

"If this filly earns any blacktype of her own ... this price looks very reasonable down the road," I wrote. "In fact, it already does."

Well, there you go.

Also on Sunday, maiden-breakers No. 15 and No. 16 from my 187-horse list of sales tips collected their first lifetime victories in widely disparate environments; one at Hoosier Park and the other at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico.

Fiscal Policy scored first in Indiana, building upon a third-place debut to take the field practically gate to wire in a five-furlong maiden special weight. She drew off to win by four and a quarter lengths for jockey Leandro Goncalves, covering the distance in 58.40.

The filly by Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook was foaled in Florida, bred by Robert L. Dodd. She is owned by Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence, and trained by Tom Amoss. Her $21,000 share of the purse bumps Fiscal Policy's earnings to $24,080.

Fiscal Policy sold for a whopping $140,000 as Hip 801 at OBSAPR. I noted that her unraced dam had produced a solid, non-blacktype winner from two foals, and this filly's 10-flat eighth was promising. Her second dam was the stakes-placed Copelan mare Grand Betty, who produced G3 winner POSITIVE ENERGY, and this is the female family of G1 winner FAMILY ENTERPRIZE, among other stakes horses. Fiscal Policy's fifth dam is reine de course Bramalea, dam of breed-shaping sire Roberto.

"I thought she might bring less than the average Wildcat Heir (around $74,000 at the time), but she brought much more," I wrote after the then-unnamed filly sold. She was nearly the session-topper on the third day of the sale.

Later in the afternoon, Concertos Pride broke through in her fourth start in Puerto Rico. The filly had placed second among winners at first asking, losing to a horse who has now won at least thrice already. Then, Concertos Pride disappointed in two straight races against maidens (won by another of my sales picks, Hold Still).

The race was a six-furlong maiden special weight, but since it takes a few days for full charts from Hipodromo Camarero to filter their way to Equibase -- and then to me -- I'm not sure yet of the margin, or what Concertos Pride has earned from the win.

Concertos Pride sold as Hip 1003 at OBSAPR, and brought only $5,000. Though her dam was only placed, never a winner, I like that she is a daughter of a top broodmare sire in Deputy Minister, and had already produced nine winners from 13 foals, four of them stakes horses. That's the resume of a filly who should win somewhere, and pretty soon, she did. I'll need to see the time for six furlongs to see whether it's a race that would have been competitive somewhere in the States, even if at a lower-tier track.

The weekend, which included a first-time starter in Korea (to be reported later), boasted 15 races for my sales tips, with three wins, three seconds and a third, plus the third horse to achieve at least a blacktype-placing.

From 107 races, my sales picks have logged 17 wins (15.9 percent) and, with 15 places and a dozen shows, an in-the-money rate of 41.1 percent. Total earnings now have reached $539,028, not including the win by Concertos Pride or the race in Korea, dollar-figures from which aren't yet accessible for me.

Follow the race results of all 187 of my sales tips (and a few horses I didn't like) here.