Return on investment: Fiscal Policy wins Bassinet Stakes, becomes second sales-tip stakes winner

Breaking sharply and easily repelling all challengers, FISCAL POLICY drew off to win the $50,000 Coca-Cola Bassinet Stakes Saturday at River Downs.

The bay filly by Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook, becomes the second stakes winner from my 187 sales tips at this year's juvenile auctions. She debuted July 8 with a third place finish on synthetic at Arlington Park before breaking maiden by four and a quarter on dirt at Hoosier Park Aug. 15.

On Saturday, jockey Rex Stokes III got her away from the gate well, and the even-money filly dueled three-wide in the early going with second- and third-favored Sonja's Angel (2/1) and Internet Cafe (4/1). Those two faded to last and fifth of six, respectively. Stakes-placed Ruth and Neva drew within a head at the half-mile marker, but was decisively put away in the stretch to finish second. Bach Hamilton was third.

The time was just 1:13.40 for six furlongs, though Fiscal Policy set fairly brisk early fractions (22.2 for a quarter) and had plenty in reserve to dispatch the field.

Fiscal Polcy was bred in Florida by Robert L. Dodd, and is owned by Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence. She is trained by Tom Amoss.

The filly brought a stout $140,000 as Hip 801 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. I liked her 10-flat eighth, wasn't fond of an unraced dam, but did note that she'd produced a solid, non-blacktype winner from two prior foals. The second dam here is the stakes-placed Copelan mare Grand Betty, who produced Grade 3-placed POSITIVE ENERGY, and this is the female family of Grade 1 winner FAMILY ENTERPRIZE, among others.

Upon her selling for $140,000, I wrote: "I thought she might bring less than the average Wildcat Heir (which was around $74,000 at the time I tipped her), but she brought much more."

She's a good-looker, by most accounts, and that had to help her cause at the sale, as well.

At least the owners are now starting to recoup their investment, with $54,080 in earnings and catalog blacktype that elevates the value of their filly beyond what she's already banked.

Track the performance of my 187 sales picks, and a few pans, at this former post.

Sales-pick exacta provides winner No. 17

I was looking forward to Wednesday evening's fourth race at Hoosier Park, because I was convinced one of my 2010 juvenile sales picks was gonna run away and hide with that one. And I was right.

But I had the wrong horse.

Pulgarcito, a first-timer from the barn of Steve Asmussen, broke from the 1-hole, bolted to the lead under Victor Lebron, and sailed around the rail to victory by five and a quarter lengths. He set blazing fractions, especially for a first-time starter, of 21.80 for a quarter and 45-flat for the half, posting a final time of 1:04 flat for five and a half furlongs.

Trailing from gate to wire was the horse I thought was going to win, another sales pick of mine, Category Killer. Trained by Tom Amoss, Category Killer had been working more briskly than Pulgarcito leading up to their mutual debut race. Consequently, he was sent off as the favorite at about 3/2, while Pulgarcito posted odds of better than 5/1 and paid $12.80 to win. (A rare, generous payout, I should think, for an Asmussen horse making his debut at a track like Hoosier.)

Finishing third, another two lengths behind Category Killer, was Finding Paradise, the second choice in the odds at a little less than 2/1 after he debuted with a second-place finish at Churchill on July 2.

Had you boxed my "sales-pick exacta," you'd have collected $37.20 for each $4 wagered.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst. He is owned by Heiligbrodt Racing Stable. The colt was a $37,000 RNA as Hip 849 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training.

I'd normally ignore the get of unraced stallions, or those -- like Greatness -- who only won a couple of races and were never stakes performers. But Greatness is a son of one of the 20th century's true prepotent sires, Mr. Prospector, and his dam Harbour Club was a track record-setting stakes winner. While those genes didn't amount to a splendid racehorse in Greatness, for whatever reason, he's passed a few good qualities along to his get. Through three crops of racing age last year, Greatness has sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals, although just one stakes winner. He's upgraded his mares, with a 1.26 Average Earnings Index vs. a 1.07 Comparable Index.

So when this fellow -- whose dam was a G3 winner at 2 and a proven stakes producer -- blistered 10-flat through an eighth, I took notice. Pulgarcito also already had a juvenile-winning full sibling in Great Attack, who won two of three starts last year at age 2. So the stage was set with this one for an early win, and he got it (earning $21,000) in his first out.

"Another likely FL-bred winner by this over-achieving sire," I predicted.

But I didn't predict that he'd win Wednesday.

While Pulgarcito had drilled no quicker than 38.60, 50-flat and 102.20 for Asmussen, Category Killer had worked sub-24 for two furlongs in May, quick as 46.60 for four furlongs in July, and most recently ran 1:00.40 just 10 days prior to this start. I thought the son of Officer-Dial a Trick, by Phone Trick, was the sharper of the two.

I thought wrong.

Category Killer did earn $7,000 for his owners, Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence. A half-brother to G2 winner EYE OF THE TIGER, G2-placed WILDWOOD FLOWER and stakes-placed stakes-producer Expanse, the colt was a $70,000 purchase as Hip 957 from the same OBSAPR sale that produced Pulgarcito. He drilled 9.4 in the under-tack show, and I suggested his price, despite being roughly double the sales average, could prove to be a bargain.

And it still might, because the colt got taken down Wednesday by an obviously super-sharp horse from one of the nation's most successful strings. I have to think Category Killer's chances are even better his next time out.

Also Wednesday, I had a firster from my sales picks making a start among NY-bred maiden special weights at Saratoga. There Goes Molly (Chief Seattle-Hey Darla, by Evansville Slew) was a $6,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May. I thought she might outrun her odds -- which were 12/1 on the morning line and nearly 18/1 at post -- but she pretty much lost all chance when she broke through the gate before the start and had to be reloaded. That's never a good omen.

Through Wednesday's racing, my 187 juvenile sales tips have made 110 starts, producing 17 winners (9 percent), 18 victories including stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (16.4 percent wins from starts), and 28 other placings (41.8 percent in the money). The Class of 2010 has earned $572,928, for $5,208 per start.

Track the progress of all 187 sales picks, plus a few "pans," at this former post.

'Seconditis' weekend extends to graded stakes, but two more sales tips are maidens no longer

After starting an active three-day stretch with a couple of near-misses -- horses getting beaten a neck and a nose in maiden special weight races -- my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010 had a strong Sunday to cap the weekend.

The Sabbath saw a pair of fillies I selected from this year's sales clearing their maiden hurdles in their second and fourth starts, respectively, and a third filly moving forward from a first-out maiden score to place in a Grade 2 stakes race in her second lifetime effort.

Let's tout the blacktype first.

Alienation, a filly owned by Jill Baffert and trained by her hall-of-fame husband, Bob, broke her maiden in fleet fashion at first asking over the Hollywood Park grass on July 5. Baffert scratched his wife's filly from the recent Sorrento S.-G3 at Del Mar, which would have been run on synthetic, and shipped her east, where she posted a bullet work in the mud -- five furlongs in essentially a minute flat -- leading up to the Adirondack S.-G2 at Saratoga.

On Sunday at the Spa, Alienation was pressed on the pace by Miss Sarah Brown (who would finish last of 10) through fractions of 21.72 and 45.07 and disposed of everyone else in the field by at least five lengths; everyone but Position Limit, that is. The Bellamy Road filly overtook the tiring leader and drew off to win the $150,000 race by five lengths, the same margin Alienation finished ahead of third-place Coax Liberty.

Earning $30,000 for her efforts, Alienation (Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West) has now banked $54,000. She was a $60,000 purchase, so has nearly earned that back in just two starts, but has likely elevated her potential commercial value above that purchase price with G2 blacktype on her own page, and certainly has every hope for an even more promising future.

In tipping her as Hip 719 at OBSAPR, I noted that in addition to her brisk, 21-flat quarter in the under-tack show, her dam was a minor stakes winner with multiple blacktype siblings, whose second dam was a half-sister to G1 winners JUDGE ANGELUCCI, WAR and PEACE.

"If this filly earns any blacktype of her own ... this price looks very reasonable down the road," I wrote. "In fact, it already does."

Well, there you go.

Also on Sunday, maiden-breakers No. 15 and No. 16 from my 187-horse list of sales tips collected their first lifetime victories in widely disparate environments; one at Hoosier Park and the other at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico.

Fiscal Policy scored first in Indiana, building upon a third-place debut to take the field practically gate to wire in a five-furlong maiden special weight. She drew off to win by four and a quarter lengths for jockey Leandro Goncalves, covering the distance in 58.40.

The filly by Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook was foaled in Florida, bred by Robert L. Dodd. She is owned by Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence, and trained by Tom Amoss. Her $21,000 share of the purse bumps Fiscal Policy's earnings to $24,080.

Fiscal Policy sold for a whopping $140,000 as Hip 801 at OBSAPR. I noted that her unraced dam had produced a solid, non-blacktype winner from two foals, and this filly's 10-flat eighth was promising. Her second dam was the stakes-placed Copelan mare Grand Betty, who produced G3 winner POSITIVE ENERGY, and this is the female family of G1 winner FAMILY ENTERPRIZE, among other stakes horses. Fiscal Policy's fifth dam is reine de course Bramalea, dam of breed-shaping sire Roberto.

"I thought she might bring less than the average Wildcat Heir (around $74,000 at the time), but she brought much more," I wrote after the then-unnamed filly sold. She was nearly the session-topper on the third day of the sale.

Later in the afternoon, Concertos Pride broke through in her fourth start in Puerto Rico. The filly had placed second among winners at first asking, losing to a horse who has now won at least thrice already. Then, Concertos Pride disappointed in two straight races against maidens (won by another of my sales picks, Hold Still).

The race was a six-furlong maiden special weight, but since it takes a few days for full charts from Hipodromo Camarero to filter their way to Equibase -- and then to me -- I'm not sure yet of the margin, or what Concertos Pride has earned from the win.

Concertos Pride sold as Hip 1003 at OBSAPR, and brought only $5,000. Though her dam was only placed, never a winner, I like that she is a daughter of a top broodmare sire in Deputy Minister, and had already produced nine winners from 13 foals, four of them stakes horses. That's the resume of a filly who should win somewhere, and pretty soon, she did. I'll need to see the time for six furlongs to see whether it's a race that would have been competitive somewhere in the States, even if at a lower-tier track.

The weekend, which included a first-time starter in Korea (to be reported later), boasted 15 races for my sales tips, with three wins, three seconds and a third, plus the third horse to achieve at least a blacktype-placing.

From 107 races, my sales picks have logged 17 wins (15.9 percent) and, with 15 places and a dozen shows, an in-the-money rate of 41.1 percent. Total earnings now have reached $539,028, not including the win by Concertos Pride or the race in Korea, dollar-figures from which aren't yet accessible for me.

Follow the race results of all 187 of my sales tips (and a few horses I didn't like) here.