Florida filly earns black type at Belmont

When I used this blog to tip a trio horses from the same (very) immediate family from last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, I expected all three to be successful racehorses. That all are now stakes horses is icing on the cake.

On Sunday at Belmont Park, Decennial was second-favored at 3-1 had a chance to win the Queen Tutta Stakes on the turf, but was out-kicked in the stretch and settled for third place. It was the Florida-bred filly's sixth on-the-board finish in seven starts on New York lawns, and her first among stakes company. She finished off the board in a stakes race at Saratoga her last out.

Decennial and Ramon Dominguez were well-positioned to win on Sunday, but 5-1 In Step with Jose Lezcano was the best finisher, with 10.5-1 Button Girl and Cornelio Velasquez 3 1/4 behind her and only a neck ahead of Decennial in third. Favored Cascadilla Falls (2-1) could only manage sixth place. Final time for seven furlongs on turf was 1:21.34.

Decennial is owned by Blue Devil Racing Stable and trained by Carlos F. Martin. She was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud. With four wins and two shows from eight starts, all at age 3, (her only dirt effort was unplaced), Decennial has earned $87,500.

I tipped the chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner, as Hip 349 at OBS April, where she sold for just $26,000 despite a 22-flat quarter and her status as a half-sister to stakes winners SEA OF GREEN and LADY GIN.

From that same sale I also selected RIGOLETTA (who sold for $35,000 went on to win the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at 2 and earn $184,070) and GOURMET DINNER (a $40,000 sale who has three stakes wins including the Delta Downs Jackpot-G3 and has banked $989,660).

The dams of those two -- Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook, in the first case and Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus, in the latter -- are half-sisters to Decennial. The Sunday stakes-placer and her "nephew," Gourmet Dinner, are bred on the same cross, both being sired by Trippi.

The family trio were purchased for a combined $105,000 and now have 10 wins (four in stakes, including a G1 and a G3), more than $1.25 million in earnings, and two solid broodmare prospects among them.

Decennial becomes the 21st horse stakes-placed or better (20 in black-type races) from my 187-member class of 2010 sales prospect; that's 11.2 percent.

I hope the connections of Decennial keep in mind that she's a Florida-bred and might find some opportunities for her back home in the Sunshine State over the winter.

Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections.

Decennial rewards faithful at Belmont

Justifying her post-time odds of 7/5, Decennial waited patiently, then kicked home strongly under Ramon Dominguez Friday at Belmont for a worst-to-first performance that resulted in her third win in four tries on turf.

The chestnut filly was unplaced in her career debut on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. Since trainer Carlos Martin moved her to the grass, she hasn't failed to finish worse than third.

On this day, Decennial entered the race as the 5/2 morning-line favorite. But I had my doubts that she was much better than several others in the eight-horse field, at least based on speed figures. The Belmont betting public liked her chances, though, and sent Decennial off as by far the favorite, with no other horse at lower than 4/1 odds.

Dominguez and Decennial settled in last place through opening fractions of 22.51 and 46 flat set by second-favored and Argentine-bred To The Point. They were sixth after three-quarters run in 1:10.22, had to swing four-wide on the turn for home, and were still in fourth about a furlong from the finish.

Just when I was afraid she might flatten out and come up short, Decennial switched leads for Dominguez and found a new gear with a sixteenth to go. She won by a widening 1 3/4 with a final time of 1:34.77 for a mile.

I tabbed the Florida-bred daughter of Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner, at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where she went for just $26,000 as Hip 349. She has now earned $53,500 for owners Blue Devil Racing Stable.

The filly is one of three from the same immediate female family that I endorsed at OBSAPR 2010. She is actually a half-sister to the dams of both RIGOLETTA ($35,000 as Hip 725, Oak Leaf S.-G1, etc., $184,070) and GOURMET DINNER ($40,000 Hip 277, Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, etc., $989,660). Decennial and Gourmet Dinner are particularly closely related, as both are sired by Trippi.

Click here to follow the 187 horses I recommended from various 2-year-old sales of 2010.

Settling for a new stakes horse: Bibblesman

Twelve representatives of my sales-tip Class of 2010 went to post worldwide on Saturday, and I felt there was at least a ghost of a chance for the horses to win nine of those races. The day ended without a victory, but with a new stakes-placer -- albeit one that failed as the favorite in a short field.

Bibblesman (Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat) was sent off at 4/5 Saturday afternoon in the seven-furlong, $75,000 Peppy Addy Stakes for PA-breds at Philadelphia's Parx Racing. He and rider Frankie Pennington were pressed for the lead by Der Meister and Oscar Flores, albeit in fairly moderate fractions of 23.12 and 45.37. Bibblesman ran Der Meister off his feet, eventually finishing seven lengths ahead of that rival (and 18/1 Flybird never stood a chance), but in the closing stages, 7/5 second-choice Trade Secret and Stewart Elliott swept by to claim the victory by a length and a half, in a final time of 1:23.56.

It was a disappointing finish; nevertheless, Bibblesman becomes the 20th horse stakes-placed or better worldwide from my 187-horse list of sales recommendations from selected juvenile auctions of 2010; that's 10.7 percent of all selections. Nineteen of those 20 have earned catalog black-type (10.2 percent) and seven are stakes winners (3.7 percent), led by G1-winning 2-year-old RIGOLETTA, who unfortunately was retired early at age 3 due to injury, and her cousin GOURMET DINNER, a G3 winner of nearly $1 million.

Alienation, a G1/G2-placed 2-year-old who won her 3-year-old debut last out by open lengths in an allowance at Hollywood Park, goes for the sales class' second Grade 1 win on Independence Day in the Prioress Stakes at Belmont Park.

I shortlisted Bibblesman as a "Priority 1" prospect on a 48-horse bargain-hunting list for a client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He sold for just $22,000 and with the $15,000 payday from the Peppy Addy placing has earned $89,860 with two wins and three seconds from six starts for B.P. Reid Stable and trainer Robert Reid Jr.

Click here to follow all 187 of my sales selections.

Decennial, Dominguez sharp in Belmont score

Overcoming a poor start and some traffic on her way to the front, Decennial strode home under a splendid hand ride by Ramon Dominguez to win by a widening two lengths on turf Friday at Belmont Park.

The Florida-bred Decennial (Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner) now has two wins and a third from three tries going a route of ground on grass in New York. Her only out-of-the-money effort in four starts was sprinting on the inner dirt at Aqueduct in her debut.

On Friday, the chestnut filly lunged at the start. Dominguez snaked her between the two- and three-paths on the back stretch and turn for home while patiently tracking the leaders. He asked her for run to split rivals at the eighth pole, then dove Decennial to the rail with a sixteenth to go and brought her home under "light hand urging" to draw off from second-favored Erma Lee and Jose Lezcano. Final time was 1:37.20 for a mile over firm going.

I tabbed Decennial on this blog as one of my favored, mostly bargain-seeking prospects from last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She sold for just $26,000 as Hip 349, and has now earned $34,900 from four starts in the colors of Blue Devil Racing Stable under the conditioning of Carlos Martin.

Decennial is one of three near-relatives who all proved to be shrewd recommendations of mine out of OBSAPR. Her dam, Romantic Dinner, only won a single race from 30 tries, but became a multiple stakes-producer. Included in Decennial's half-siblings (and Romantic Dinner's produce) are the modest-winning Montbrook mare Almost Aprom Queen, dam of my 2010 OBSAPR sales pick RIGOLETTA (by Concerto, $35,000 Hip 725, Oak Leaf S.-G1, etc., $184,070) and the Pentelicus daughter Potluck Dinner, dam of my OBSAPR selection GOURMET DINNER (Trippi, $40,000 Hip 277, Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, etc., $989,660).

Those three close relatives cost $101,000 at the sale and have since combined to win eight times from 18 starts, including four stakes (one G1, one G3) and to place three more times in graded-stakes, for combined earnings of $1,208,630.

Note that Decennial and G3-winning Gourmet Dinner are bred on the same cross; both are by Trippi, with Gourmet Dinner being foaled by Decennial's half-sister.

Click here to follow all 187 of my juvenile sales picks of 2010.

Bessie M stamps her page with black type

Coming in on a two-race win-streak and making her stakes debut, Bessie M made her move on the turn for home but flattened out in the stretch, settling for third place Saturday in the Regal Gal Stakes at Calder Race Course.

Prize Informant led from gate to wire in the $55,000 event, setting sensible fractions of 23.92 and 48.15 on her way to a 2 1/4-length victory at better than 15/1 odds. Dual Calder stakes-winner Blue Eyed Sweetie came on for second. The final time for a mile over a fast Calder track was 1:42.72.

Jockey Jose Alvarez positioned Bessie M perfectly, stalking the long-shot on the rail and swinging out one lane on the turn for home. It looked like Bessie M would go right on by, but she hung, then began losing ground on the eventual winner, and was passed by Blue Eyed Sweetie in the final sixteenth. Bessie M did hang on for third ahead of the favorite, three-time stakes-winner Devilish Lady, thus earning her first catalog black type for owners Platinum Equestrian Corporation, which claimed the filly for $25,000 at Gulfstream in January.

Bessie M is now 3-for-10 lifetime with two seconds and three thirds for $63,024. Though she was competitive prior, she has really caught fire after the claim and the switch to the barn of trainer Antonio Sano.

I tabbed Bessie M as a "Priority 2" prospect on a 48-horse shortlist of potential bargains at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training a year ago. She sold as Hip 59 for $35,000 to William H. Harris, for whom she broke maiden at 2 in a dead-heat at Delaware Park. Harris lost her to Platinum Equestrian on the claim in January.

The filly, then named Carolita, was one of the tallest I inspected at the sale, breezed well (22 2/5 for a quarter) and on the whole was pretty fair conformationally. I liked that her dam, Catalita (Mountain Cat-Carmelita, by Mogambo) had earned $111,226 from 18 starts, albeit not in stakes company, was half to minor black-type herself, and had already produced a winner from two prior foals. Really, the only factor knocking the filly from Priority 1 status to Priority 2 was her young sire, who was off to a slow start.

Seems he's done OK with this one, as are the connections at Platinum Equestrian.

Bessie M becomes the 18th stakes horse stakes-placed or better from my 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010. Seven of those stakes horses are black-type winners, led by GOURMET DINNER ($989,660), his fellow Florida-bred and close cousin, G1 winning 2-year-old RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S., etc.), and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-placed DELIGHTFUL MARY (372,377).

Follow all of my 2010 juvenile sales picks, and a handful of pans, in the list at the bottom of this prior post.

Decennial wins in start numero dos

Decennial is a winner, and it certainly didn't take her 10 years. Nor even 10 starts.

The chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner rated patiently in fourth place for jockey Channing Hill Friday in a maiden-claiming field going a mile on turf at Aqueduct. When the group straightened out for home and easy early leader Galaxy Jet ran out of gas, Decennial easily powered away from fellow stalkers One Spring Storm and Mean Reversion to win by a widening four lengths over Point Gammon.

Decennial clears her maiden hurdle in her second lifetime start, having missed the board in her one prior effort. She earned $12,000 for the MCL $16K win at a mile on turf for trainer Linda Rice and owner Blue Devil Racing Stable, running her lifetime bankroll to $12,400. The filly was foaled in Florida and bred by Ocala Stud.

I recommended Decennial prior to her purchase by Vina Del Mar Thoroughbreds for $26,000 as Hip 349 at last year's OBS April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She hails from a female family that I turned to three times during my analysis of that sale -- and all three are now winners, two of them of graded stakes.

Decennial is very closely related to G3 winner GOURMET DINNER, who is also sired by Trippi and out of Decennial's half-sister, Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus). I recommended Gourmet Dinner from that same OBSAPR sale and he won four of eight for over $989,000 before falling off the Kentucky Derby trail with, initially, scarcely a trace. Now the connections say he has a sore shin. ... Gourmet Dinner sold for just $40,000 to co-breeder William J. Terrill when he and Ocala Stud cashed-out their partnership last April by running him through the sale.

Another of Decennial's half-sisters, Almost Aprom Queen (Montbrook), produced a G1-winning 2-year-old of last year RIGOLETTA (Concerto), who earned $184,070 before being retired at 3 with what in some places has been described as a tendon injury. I recommended her as Hip 726 at OBSAPR, where she sold for just $35,000 to Erik and Pavla Nygaard's Thor-Bred Stable, and clearly now is worth more as a broodmare prospect than it's worth to rehab her and keep racing her, perhaps at less than her best.

Beyond all the recent stakes performers, Decennial already was a half-sister to G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K earned) and LADY GIN ($227K). With all that black type on the page, it's a little surprising she could be entered for $16,000 in only her second start and make it through the race unclaimed. She won like she was worth at least a few pennies more than that.

I suppose my primary concern now would be soundness, as both Gourmet Dinner and Rigoletta (who admittedly was pigeon-toed) have apparently experienced issues.

Note that I took a pass at OBSAPR on Hip 841 from this family, a gelding by Concerto (as was Rigoletta) out of Decennial's half-sister Candlelightdinner, by Slew Gin Fizz. Now named VUELVE RUBEN M, he won four times in seven starts in Puerto Rico at age 2, including at least two stakes races, for $102,660.

Four foals from the immediate female family in the same sale, four winners, three stakes winners, two graded in the U.S. ... Despite the physical woes experienced by two of the foals (and I sure hope Gourmet Dinner bounces back), that's pretty serious production.

Friday's racing almost produced another maiden winner from my Sales-Tip Class of 2010. Herecomeseveryman was sent off as the favorite but beaten by a head in a turf-claimer at Gulfstream Park. Francisco's Boy, another member of the class, missed the break and finished sixth beaten 5 1/4 in the same race.

Decennial becomes the 74th winner from my 187-horse list of juvenile recommendations from last year's sales; that's 39.6 percent. Though the statistics need a little updating, you can follow the class in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Gourmet Dinner hits Jackpot; class tops $3 million

Finishing second for the first time must have whet the winning appetite for GOURMET DINNER, because on Saturday at Delta Downs, the 2-year-old colt hoarded the glutton's share of a $1 million buffet.

The Trippi colt, a member of my 187-horse "class" of 2010 juvenile sales tips, "made a huge move on the turn and roared through the stretch" to score at 20/1 under Sebastian Madrid in the Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3. Gourmet Dinner becomes the second graded stakes-winner from the class, and the $600,000 first-place check he cashed both vaults him well into the earnings lead among my sales tips with $809,660 banked, but also pushes the class' earnings over $3 million for their collective juvenile season.

Gourmet Dinner, a 2-year-old bred by Ocala Stud and William J. Terrill and campaigned by Terrill's Our Sugar Bear Stable, was 3-for-3 with a pair of Florida Stallion Series stakes wins before finishing second by a length to fellow sales-tip REPRIZED HALO in the high-dollar Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder on Oct. 16.

On Saturday at Delta, he was lightly regarded in a field led by 5/2 favorite Bug Juice and featuring other top selections in Sweet Ducky (3.3/1), Rush Now (3.6/1) and Classic Legacy (4.7/1). None of those would finish better than fourth.

Gourmet Dinner broke from the rail in the mile and a sixteenth test over fast dirt, and settled into a stalking position in sixth place, only a couple of lengths off the lead set by Bug Juice in fractions of 22.66 and 46.56. Gourmet Dinner wasn't involved in the near-disaster caused when fellow 20/1 long-shot Aces N Kings bolted from his inside position, blowing the far turn and carrying 8/1 Blue Laser and uber-long-shot Dreamsrunwild (102/1) out with him, not to mention losing his rider, Calvin Borel, who broke his jaw in the fall. And as the field turned for home, Gourmet Dinner grabbed the lead by a length and a half, then drew off to win by 2 1/4, in a final time of 1:45.23.

Finishing second to Gourmet Dinner was a Calder rival who has trailed him home before, 48/1 Decisive Moment, while Clubhouse Ride came home third at nearly 14/1.

The colt was trained for the victory by Steven Standridge. It was the first training victory of 2010 for Standridge, who served as an assistant trainer to Peter Gulyas, the trainer of record for Gourmet Dinner's first three victorious starts, which came before Standridge decided to hang his own shingle.

I tabbed Gourmet Dinner when he was catalogued as Hip 277 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. He was entered in the sale to dissolve the breeding partnership of Ocala Stud and Terrill, but Terrill's agent Bruce Brown was the high-bidder (at what now was obviously a paltry $40,000) and gained sole ownership of the horse Terrill co-bred.

After breaking maiden at first asking, Gourmet Dinner collected victories in two installments of the Florida Stallion Series -- first in the Dr. Fager Stakes, and then the Affirmed Stakes. Had Reprized Halo not spoiled the party with his 46/1 shocker in the In Reality Stakes, I believe Standridge and Terrill might have followed the lead of Calder-based filly Awesome Feather and pointed Gourmet Dinner toward the Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.-G1 at Churchill.

Awesome Feather won the B.C. Juvenile Fillies to run her freshman-season record to 6-for-6 and establish herself as the likely runaway winner of the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly. Now with his decisive win at Delta, Gourmet Dinner and Decisive Moment are further evidence that this year's Calder juveniles are perhaps a stronger group than some observers might have credited them a month or two ago.

My interest in Gourmet Dinner was piqued by his 21.3 quarter-mile breeze, but more important, his dam Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner) overcame her own lackluster, one-start track career to be a fine producer. She has borne two other stakes horses in GASTON A. and I'mroyallyMecke'd, plus a winner of 15 races for $163K in Crazybrook and a $219K-earner in On The Rail.

And as more than just an oh-by-the-way, Gourmet Dinner is a close cousin to another sales-tip who thus far is the group's only Grade 1 winner. He and $35,000 OBSAPR purchase RIGOLETTA (Concerto-Almost Aprom Queen) share second dam Romantic Dinner. Rigoletta was the 33/1 upsetter of Tell A Kelly in the Oak Leaf S.-G1 on synthetic at Hollywood Park, punching her own ticket to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies before a minor splint injury derailed her bid.

Two graded-stakes winners with about $1 million earned in their freshman seasons, bought for a combined $75,000 at OBSAPR. Perhaps this female family shouldn't be so overlooked at sales to come.

With two new winners on the weekend, my 2010 sales-tip class has 54 maiden-breakers from 187 total selections (21.9 percent) and 107 starters (38.3 percent).

As noted, Gourmet Dinner, who was the first of the class to become a stakes winner, joins his cousin Rigoletta as the two graded-stakes winners from the group. There are five stakes winners from the class (the other two besides Reprized Halo are FISCAL POLICY, who was unplaced Saturday in the $500,000 Delta Downs Princess S.-G3, and PULGARCITO), which equals 2.7 percent of all selections and 4.7 percent of those to race. The class boasts 12 total stakes-placed horses, for 6.4 percent.

The 107 sales-tips to start have combined for 54 wins from 358 starts (15.1 percent), with another 68 "place" finishes (34.1 percent in the exacta) and 39 "show" finishes (45 percent in the money).

With the windfall from Gourmet Dinner's "Jackpot," total class earnings have reached $3,003,429. That's $8,389 per start, and an average of $28,609 per starter. Considering about $6.4 million was bid on the horses I recommended on that list of 187 (not including those withdrawn from sales), the class has earned back nearly half of what was spent on it at auction; no small thanks to Gourmet Dinner.

Follow the performance of all 187 sales-picks, and a few pans, at this former post.

During break from blog, two winners pass the wire

While traveling last week to pursue a job prospect, I wasn't able to keep up with my sales-tip runners on a daily basis as I usually do, and thus I look back now to report that two more 2-year-olds from the 187 I recommended at this year's juvenile sales, are maidens no more.

They are the 38th and 39th winners from what I've dubbed the Sales-Tip Class of 2010.

Winner No. 38 came at Penn National in Nov. 11, when bargain-basement-bought Time Control -- after a fair, but unplaced performance at a higher claiming level -- was dropped for a $7,500 tag and won like he should have been entered for much higher. (Though he escaped unclaimed.)

Winner No. 39 came the following day, when Dangerous Ghost -- finally sent back to the dirt after three unplaced efforts on grass -- handled a field of solid maiden-claimers at Oklahoma's Remington Park.

After showing speed but fading in the stretch during an Oct. 27 debut at Penn, Time Control was dropped into a group where he was a winner gate-to-wire, with never a doubt. Sent off as an odds-on favorite, he broke on top, led by eight entering the stretch, and drew off to win "easily" by 14 lengths. Time Control covered 5 1/2 furlongs over a fast track in 1:06.60, earning $10,080.

The chestnut colt by Catienus-Keep Your Day Job, by Abaginone is owned by R J G Racing Management LLC, trained by Murray Rojas and was ridden by Jose Flores. The colt was bred in Pennsylvania by G&R Stables LLC, James M. Robinson, MohnsHill Farm LLC and Edward A. Price.

I shortlisted him as a "Priority 2" choice on a 48-horse list compiled for a client at this May's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. Time Control was catalogued as Hip 209, and we bought a horse in the mid-150s and were out of the market by the time he sold for just $6,000 to Rojas.

In reporting my list to blog readers (after keeping it confidential for the buyer until after the sale was complete), I admitted that I wasn't sure why Time Control didn't end up a "Priority 1" horse for us. But it certainly had mostly to do with a lack of type --not just black type, for stakes horses, but literally any text -- on the colt's catalog page. He's the first foal out of Keep Your Day Job, who was stakes-placed herself and earned more than $100,000. But his second dam bore only five foals to race, most by very poor sires, and with results to match. His third dam was stakes-placed on grass in France, but also bore just five to race, with modest results.

"Still, quite simply put, Catienus upgrades mares," I reasoned. "And that's when compared to decent sires. For a female family that of late has seen nothing but the lowest grade of stallion, he might really provide a useful racehorse out of what seems like a black hole of talent."

Time Control only breezed 23.3, but the track at Timonium was slow that week. I commented that he had, "good bone, a cool head under inspection, and a fairly racy look."

"The sire gets 82 percent runners, 61 percent winners and his raced foals last an average of 20.2 starts at the track, significantly above the breed average. Watch this one do at least a little something, probably plenty to merit the $6,000 paid."

Even a maiden-claiming $7,500 win worth $10,080 is a good start toward that.

On Nov. 12 at Remington Park, filly Dangerous Ghost was returned to the surface where I think she belongs, and won just as you'd like to see.

Dangerous Ghost debuted on dirt at Canterbury Park, where she was closing hard late, but didn't quite get up at the wire and finished second by a nose to a 3/2 favorite. Then she was sent to Remington Park in Oklahoma, and run three straight times on turf. Her first out there was a disaster when she ducked in and lost the rider in mid-stretch. She ran a decent fourth her next try. But in her third turf effort, while closing late on the leaders, Dangerous Ghost took a bad step and had to be backed out of it.

Sent out in the slop this time, and offered for a $30,000 claiming price, the daughter of Ghostzapper rated in sixth, went four-wide on the turn, stuck her head in front entering the stretch, and finished a widening 3 1/2 lengths in front as the 3/1 favorite.

She was trained for the win by Michael Biehler and ridden by Dean Butler. Al and Bill Ulwelling own the filly, who was bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm.

I selected her from the catalog at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training, where Dangerous Ghost was catalogued as Hip 1205, and sold for just $12,000. She now has a win and a place from five starts for $14,202.

I'm not sure why this filly went quite so cheap at the sale, though she did "only" breeze 10.3. (Which would be of some significant import if tracks were carding eighth-mile races with a jog-up start.)

On the plus side, her dam, Katy Kat (Forest Wildcat) was a stakes winner and G3-placed for $210K, and a full sister to juvenile stakes winner YADDO CAT. Katy Kat has borne three prior fillies who have (at this writing) combined for 10 wins from 31 starts and earned nearly $250,000 combined. Second dam Kombat Kate (Fit to Fight) was stakes-placed herself, and produced five winners from seven foals to race, including G3-placed Kombat Kat ($234K). Third dam Caitland (Key to the Kingdom) was only placed at the racetrack, never a winner, but was a half-sister to G1 multi-millionaire and sire WILD AGAIN, and she produced LANCE (10 wins in 44 starts, Omaha Gold Cup-G3, Board of Governors' H.-G3), Borderland Derby winner MR. DECATUR, and BUILDING CODE (four stakes wins in Canada), not to mention an Australian stakes-placer in Oakmont.

That's pretty good family performance for a fairly modest, $12,000 auction gamble.

I believe the statistics are now fully caught up after my brief hiatus. They show 106 starters from my 187 sales selections; that's 56.7 percent to race so far. The 39 winners represents 20.9 percent of all sales recommendations, and 36.8 percent of those to race.

The class has won 51 of 340 combined starts (15 percent), placed 67 times (34.7 percent in the exacta) and finished third on another 34 occasions (44.7 percent in the money). The group includes 11 stakes horses, five of them stakes winners, headlined by Grade 1 winner RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S.-G1). They have earned $2,334,119, which averages to $22,020 per starter and $6,865 per start.

Follow the progress of the sales class in its entirety in the list at the bottom of this prior post.

Breeders' Cup pre-entries include two from tips

After much anticipation, the pre-entries for the 2010 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs were finalized on Monday released on Wednesday -- a record 184 horses nominated to 14 races.

Among the 61 pre-entries by the connections of juveniles, five horses were cross-entered on both dirt and turf, meaning 56 horses were submitted for the draw. Two of those were members of my sales-tip Class of 2010: Delightful Mary (Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy) and Rough Sailing (Mizzen Mast-Moussica, by Woodman).

More about them later.

There were 18 entries for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, 13 for the Juvenile Fillies on the main track, a sparse 11 pre-entries for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and 19 for the male division of the Juvenile Turf. Horses can be cross-entered in two races on pre-entry day, but by Tuesday (Nov. 2), connections must have made a final decision on which race they're running and pay the final entry fees at that time.

The pre-entry story at Breederscup.com states that each of the 14 races is limited to 14 starters, plus up to two on the also-eligible list. This is contradictory to the "pre-entry procedures" and rules as detailed elsewhere on the site, which make provisions for some races of only 12 horses and flatly state under Entry Procedures: "There will be no also-eligible list or scratch time." (If Breederscup.com needs a copyeditor and fact-checker, I happen to know -- and be -- one who is unemployed.)

Owners Darrell & Evelyn Yates and trainer Wayne Catalano, connections of Jordy Y, who is No. 4 in order of mention (is that entry preference?) on the linked list above in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, would rather she run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she's fifth on the list and will surely get in. Andrew Rosen's Theyskens' Theory, trained by Brian Meehan, also was cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies (first preference of her connections, last of 13 in draw-priority) and the Juvenile Fillies Turf (second choice of her connections, 15th in preference for making the draw).

Among males, Robert Teel's and Wes Ward's Madman Diaries was entered with first-preference in the Juvenile Turf, where he ranks fifth among all entries. He stands eighth of 11 for admission to the rather lightly subscribed Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Two Juvenile Turf entries are also subscribed as first-preference to the Juvenile; Catesby Clay's Rogue Romance (second on the turf list and ninth among dirt entries), who is trained by Kenny McPeek, and Italian Gran Criterium-G1 winner Biondetti (12th in the turf and 10th of 11 on dirt), who is owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

Delightful Mary -- whom I tipped on this blog as a live (and likely expensive) sales prospect before she became the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR -- is 11th of 13 in entry-ranking among entries in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and will make the field if healthy to go. She gives every indication of being ready, firing a minute-flat bullet for five furlongs on Monday over the Churchill strip, fastest of 32 at the distance.

The John Oxley-owned, Mark Casse trained Limehouse filly collected two easy wins over Polytrack at Woodbine -- one sprinting and one in allowance company around two turns -- before being upset as the odds-on favorite by Wyomia in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S.-G3 her last out.

Owners Edward A. Seltzer and Beverly Anderson and trainer Daniel J. Vella -- connections of Wyomia -- shockingly to me did not enter the Vindication filly in the Juvenile Fillies, opting instead for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She sits 16th on the entry list, but will sneak into the 14-starter gate if both Jordy Y and Theyskens' Theory go in the Juvenile Fillies as their entry preferences suggest.

I think Delightful Mary looks sharp going into the race and has every reason to both move up on the switch from Polytrack to real dirt, and to handle an off-track if one is presented.

The other sales-tip to make racing's marquee day is Rough Sailing, who stands eighth in admission preference among pre-entries for the Juvenile Turf; seventh if you consider Rogue Romance's likely defection to the dirt division. I'm glad to see the colt owned by Jack Smith III and trained by Michael Stidham headed back to the grass, the surface on which he convincingly (with a huge late kick, despite a troubled trip) broke his maiden going two turns at Arlington Park.

Rough Sailing is a gutsy horse and battled his way to a place-finish behind Major Gain (also nominated to the Juvenile Turf) on Polytrack in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. But his third race was a step up to Grade 1 company on Keeneland's Poly in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, a race in which he again had some trouble, but kept grinding in the stretch to finish sixth, beaten 10.

Jockey Michael Baze has said that he thinks Rough Sailing has a better closing kick on the lawn, so while the Juvenile Turf is more heavily subscribed, I'd rather see him go back to grass than try a new surface again, the dirt this time. (Maybe later.)

I had Rough Sailing categorized as a "Priority 1" on a 48-horse short-list for a client seeking bargain runners out of the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this May. After seeing him up-close, I didn't expect him to stay in our price range -- and he didn't -- but at a price of $40,000, he still sold for nearly 20 percent less than the average horse at that auction.

While it will be exciting to watch those two on one of racing's biggest weekends, the pre-entries were a little disappointing to me. I had hoped for potentially two or three more horses from my sales-tips to be among the pre-entries.

RIGOLETTA -- a 33/1 upsetter of Juvenile Fillies third-ranked Tell a Kelly when they met in the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at Hollywood Park -- was a lock to make the field for the B.C., but would have to be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup at a cost of $180,000. Sealing her non-entry was a recent announcement by trainer Dan Hendricks declaring the Thor-Bred Stable-owned filly out of the Breeders' Cup with a minor splint injury.

Hendricks said he wanted to be sure Rigoletta was ready for the winter/spring season at Santa Anita (over a brand-new dirt track that I think moves her up vs. synthetics). Curiously -- unless the fee was paid prior to discovery of her injury -- Rigoletta was among the nominations announced this week for the $500,000 Delta Princess S.-G3 to be run at Delta Downs on Nov. 20.

Also on that whopping, 117-filly Delta Princess nominee list are sales-tips FISCAL POLICY and Rigoletta's fellow Cal-shipper and maiden-winner-only Benecia.

Another filly I had fully expected to be pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup -- and probably cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Fillies Turf -- was the Bob Baffert-trained, Jill Baffert-owned Alienation. A debut winner on grass (in fleet time and a thrilling photo) and G1/G2-placed on dirt at Saratoga, she flopped after breaking awkwardly on synthetic in that Oak Leaf Stakes won by Rigoletta. I'm not sure the speedball daughter of Rock Hard Ten needed to be in the Juvenile Fillies, going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt (though I think she'll eventually stay a route of ground if they can get her to rate), but I would have liked to see her incredible early foot employed in trying to steal the Juvenile Fillies Turf on the front end.

Alienation, whom I tipped out of OBSAPR and has earned $104,000 off a $60,000 purchase, was nominated two weeks ago (after her Oak Leaf also-ran) for the Pocahontas S.-G2 at a mile on the main track at Churchill this weekend. Those entries haven't been drawn-up yet, and I'm curious to see if Alienation is among them or whether the Bafferts have decided to rest her a spell. Fiscal Policy happens to be nominated to the Pocahontas, as well.

Finally, I thought there was a chance GOURMET DINNER might make the Breeders' Cup at Churchill. The $40,000 sales-tip of mine out of OBSAPR's first session was 3-for-3 with two stakes wins and seemed a possibility to follow filly Awesome Feather into the Breeders' Cup as undefeated queen and king of the Florida Stallion Series of restricted races at Calder.

Then he was upset in the third leg of the series, the $350,000 In Reality Stakes, by $94 shocker REPRIZED HALO -- yet another OBSAPR sales tip of mine, who sold a day after Gourmet Dinner for a paltry $23,000. That certainly derailed any designs the connections had on an unbeaten, championship season for Gourmet Dinner. Though looking at the small group of nominees -- 11 juvenile males, one of which is already pointed to the turf instead and including a couple who probably can't get the distance -- it still might have been worth a shot.

Instead, both Gourmet Dinner and Reprized Halo are among the incredible 241 horses nominated to the $1 million Delta Jackpot, also on Nov. 20 at Delta Downs. Also included in that vast list of nominees is 2010 sales-tip Category Killer, whose two races thus far include a five-length runner-up finish to now stakes-winning sales tip PULGARCITO in their mutual debut at Hoosier Park, and a return to the scene of that "sales-tip exacta" for a 15-plus-length maiden-special romp on Sept. 30.

Category Killer fired a 36-flat bullet at Churchill Tuesday and is also nominated to the $100,000 Iroquois S.-G3 to be run at that track on Sunday. Plus, he's listed as an entry on the overnights for a Saturday evening allowance event at Delta Downs. Busy little fellow.

With the addition of stakes-placer Spring Jump on Wednesday, the list of 2010 sales-tip stakes horses has reached a dozen. In addition to those mentioned, stakes placers include still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (second in G3s on turf and Poly at Woodbine), G3-placed Stopspendingmaria and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'Em Away.

Follow the entire sales-tip Class of 2010 in the list at the end of this link.

Big thumbs-up for Pulgarcito in Zia stakes

PULGARCITO -- a gelding whose name means "Tom Thumb" in Spanish -- earned positive reviews Sunday afternoon at Zia Park in Hobbs, N.M., as he stalked leader Jam'n Jackson for a half-mile, then grabbed the lead in the stretch and drew clear to win the $55,000 Governor's Cup Stakes by two lengths.

Jam'n Jackson faded to third behind Race for Jake.

Ken Tohill handled the ride aboard the winner for trainer Steve Asmussen. Tohill and Pulgarcito sat in second, a length or two off very fast 22.38 and 44.51 opening fractions set by Jam'n Jackson and Alejandro Medellin, before pouncing in the stretch. Final time for the six furlongs was 1:10.84.

The gelding was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst.

With the win, Pulgarcito runs his career mark to a pair of wins and a second from three four starts, for $61,170. He also becomes the fifth stakes winner, and the 11th horse stakes-placed or better, from my 187-member Class of 2010; horses I selected and tipped on this blog (or for a client) at various 2-year-old sales this year.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was catalogued as Hip 849 in the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. He failed to sell when the bidding topped-out at $37,000.

After he failed to sell at OBSAPR, he was successfully hawked for $40,000 at the OBSOPN sale in June. He races for Heiligbrodt Racing Stable.

The gelding won his debut on Aug. 18 at Hoosier Park, wiring a maiden special weight field by more than five lengths; a field that included runner-up and fellow debuting sales-tip Category Killer, who returned to Hoosier in similar company his next out to win by more than 15 lengths.

Pulgarcito then shipped to Oklahoma's Remington Park, where he finished second to a stakes-placed horse named Brickyard Fast (who would later race unsuccessfully in Grade 1 company) in a $75,000 optional-claimer. In his third start, Pulgarcito trailed early and never recovered in finishing fifth in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington.

More forwardly placed Sunday, as he had been in his first two starts, he performed in similar, strong fashion.

I broke a rule of mine (so maybe it's more a "guideline") in recommending Pulgarcito, whose sire, Greatness, was a winning racehorse, but could boast no stakes-quality performances at the track. Still, Greatness as the son of Mr. Prospector -- one of the 20th century's prepotent sires -- and of the mare Harbour Club (Danzig), a sharp juvenile and track record-setting Grade 3 stakes winner, was undeniably well-bred. He's passed some of those good qualities along to his get, as well. Going into the sale, Greatness had sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals -- though only one prior stakes winner.

Among those prior winners by Greatness is a full sibling to Pulgarcito, named Great Attack, who won twice in 2009 at age 2. So particularly after Pulgarcito blazed a 10-flat eighth at the OBSAPR under-tack show, all signs pointed to an early winner.

After the weekend's action, 99 of the 187 sales tips have now made at least one start as a juvenile; that's 52.9 percent. There are 34 winners, for 18.2 percent of all selections and 34.3 percent of those to race.

The class has now won 45 of 282 starts, and though the pace of victories has declined a bit, that's still 16 percent. (Well, 15.9574468 percent, to be a bit more precise. At that point, we can round up.)

They've placed another 55 times and were the show-finishers in another 27 races, for 35.5 percent in the exacta and 45 percent on the board.

Total earnings are inching closer to $2 million, with $1,968,603 banked by the 99 starters. That's $6,981 per start, and an average of $19,885 per starter.

Besides Pulgarcito, stakes winners from my sales recommendations include: RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S.-G1, $180,820); two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (3-for-4 lifetime, 1st Florida Stallion Dr. Fager S., 1st Florida Stallion Affirmed S., 2nd Florida Stallion In Reality St., $209,660); REPRIZED HALO (1st Florida Stallion In Reality S., handing Gourmet Dinner his only loss, $254,016); and FISCAL POLICY (Coca-Cola Bassinet S., $54,080).

Of the six additional stakes-placers, five of those have come in graded company, with seven second-place finishes. They include: Alienation (2nd Spinaway S.-G1, 2nd Adirondack S.-G2, $104,000); still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (Summer S.-G3T, Grey S.-G3A, $119,845); Delightful Mary (2nd Mazarine S.-G3, $112,377); Stopspendingmaria (2nd Schuylerville S.-G3, $59,167); Rough Sailing (2nd Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3, $36,200); and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'Em Away (2nd Osiris S.-N, $16,053).

Follow the exploits of all my sales picks, and a few pans, in the lengthy list at the bottom of this former post.

R Canadian Academy is R Thirty-Third Winner

Talk about a step down in class.

But, like most people in the horse racing realm -- be they owners, trainers or bettors -- we'll take a winner, wherever we can get her.

After spending Sunday night reveling in the upset win by my 2010 juvenile sales-tip Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood Park (becoming my list's first graded winner and first Grade 1 winner in the process), my focus shifted to the upper Midwest, and a bit down the ladder in the racing world. On Monday afternoon at Thistledown in Cleveland, R Canadian Academy became the sales-tip Class of 2010's 33rd member to break her maiden.

The filly scored in her fourth lifetime start, which have been divided between "Thistle" and Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania. R Canadian Academy broke alertly, a sign of some experience perhaps, and pressed the pace along the rail before running into trouble at the five-sixteenths pole. There, she had to be checked and then angled out three wide to find running room. Still, the filly made the lead by the eighth pole and was two lengths clear on the wire.

R Canadian Academy won the $25,000 maiden-claimer in a time of 1:07.38 for five furlongs over a dirt track rated as "good." She was trained for the win by Jeffrey Radosevich and ridden by Scott Spieth.

The filly was bred in Florida by Donald R. Dizney, and was purchased as Hip 1109 by Bruno Schickedanz at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training for the bargain-basement price of $5,000. At the time, I was excited for the filly, as Schickedanz in the past has won owners' titles both at Woodbine in his native Canada, and while wintering with his horses in Florida. I hoped R Canadian Academy might get a chance to run on the lawn -- which she's undoubtedly bred to handle (more on that in a bit) -- or on synthetic at Woodbine. She breezed a promising 10.2 on synthetic at the under-tack show, and I felt she'd improve on turf, which she's yet to get.

That lack of a start on grass might in part be influenced by Schickedanz's fall from grace among the racing community in Canada earlier this year. The owner made an ill-advised decision to send his long-retired stallion Wake at Noon back to the track at the age of 13, when the former Canadian Horse of the Year's stud career was obviously sputtering, and the champion died on the track at Woodbine when he broke a leg in a workout mishap. Schickedanz and trainer Tom Marino were both ordered off the grounds at Woodbine, and are yet to be allowed a return.

So, whether or not this was the original intent, R Canadian Academy filtered her way into Radosevich's barn at Thistledown, where there is no turf course.

That's a crying shame, because R Canadian Academy is a daughter of Royal Academy, who won the Breeders' Cup Mile-G1 on grass. Her dam, Good Intentions (Anet-Orena, by Runaway Groom), was a juvenile stakes winner around two turns on turf at Calder in Florida. (A stakes winner in the strangest way, as well, dead-heating for second with Survicat and then both were elevated to first when Mia's Reflection, who crossed the wire first, was taken down to third.)

Additional immediate family includes second dam Orena's full sister RUNAWAY CHOICE, a turf-sprint stakes winner who won six times from ages 2 to 6 for $254,950; Orena's half-sister, GUESS, a Suffolk dirt-stakes winner of $130K; and stakes-winning third dam Diamond Sunjet's half-brother, millionaire WEKIVA SPRINGS.

That's a lot of female family and a pretty decent breeze for a filly who only brought $5,000.

Here's hoping Schickedanz ships her south for the winter, where she can run among fellow Florida-breds -- hopefully at least a few times on grass, and for better purses -- at Tampa or even Gulfstream.

Ninety-one of my 187 sales picks have made starts thus far at age 2; that's 48.7 percent. With the 33rd maiden-breaker, 17.7 percent of all selections and 36.3 percent of those to race, are now winners. The Class of 2010 has won 42 of 230 starts for a strike rate of 18.3 percent, placed a like number of times (that is, 42) for an in-the-exacta mark of 36.5 percent, and added 22 third-place finishes for a total of 46.1 percent on-the-board.

Total earnings for the 91 runners have now reached $1,427,242. That's $6,205 per start and $15,684 average earnings per runner.

Track the class in its entirety via the list at the bottom of this former post.

Run tell that! ... Sales-tip Rigoletta at nearly 33/1 upsets odds-on Tell a Kelly in Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes

When odds-on favorite Tell a Kelly tried to bull her way through between the leaders and onto the lead at the top of the stretch in the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood Park Sunday afternoon, track announcer Vic Stauffer said the Darley Debutante champion "(had) momentum."

But 33/1 Rigoletta was having none of it.

The Dan Hendricks-trained, David Flores-ridden underdog battled back on the outside (as did early leader Indian Gracey on the rail) and it was a three-horse head-knocker to the finish. The eighth-mile gut-check was won by the long-shot, Rigoletta, by a half-length, making her the first graded stakes winner of my sales-tip class of 2010 -- and a Grade 1 winner at that. (Race video at Bloodhorse.com.)

I was shocked when the morning-line odds were posted for this race. Rigoletta was installed as the co-long-shot at 12/1, despite her third place finish behind Tell a Kelly in the aforementioned Darley Debutante. Izshelegal, a graded-placed maiden who was fourth in the Debutante, was just 4/1 on the morning line. And that was just the beginning.

I e-mailed a friend about the race; subject line: "WTF on odds for the Oak Leaf?"

I understood 8/5 on Tell a Kelly. I could get that Rigoletta's fellow sales-tip, Alienation, was 7/2, although I thought she'd be a bad bet here. That filly's early speed was likely to be tested by Indian Gracey (but wasn't, since Alienation made an awkward break and never quite caught up to the pace). But my mind was boggled that G1-placed (on synth) Rigoletta would have the same odds as Fairplex maiden-breaking stakes-winner True Way of Grace, whom Rigoletta defeated (considerably) in breaking her maiden.

And there was simply no possible explanation for why Pacific Pride was 4/1 on the morning line off 78 and 79 speed figures at Del Mar in finishing fourth and first at the maiden level. Rigoletta debuted at Hollywood with an Equibase speed figure of 68 when she was unplaced at first asking. But her maiden-breaking win at Del Mar scored an 81, and she improved to 89 in finishing third in the Debutante. (By contrast, Tell a Kelly scored a 101 for her Debutante win.)

As I told my friend, in essence, if Rigoletta kept improving as she had each race prior, and Tell a Kelly bounced even a little, an upset wasn't out of the realm of possibility.

Imagine my amazement as I watched the Oak Tree meeting live at Calracing.com and Rigoletta drifted higher and higher -- at one point not far from post time sitting at 44/1, highest on the board, while a horse she'd beaten in their mutual last race, Izshelegal, was still at 6/1.

Rigoletta ended up going off as the second-longest price at 32.7/1, while True Way of Grace was 34.5/1. Tell a Kelly was sent away at 1/2.

When the gates opened, Indian Gracey sprang to a length and a half lead, aided in no small part by Alienation's clumsy beginning. Rigoletta, who had closed from deep to break her maiden and to place third in the Debutante, was running second in this one. I thought Rigoletta might be closer to the pace in this race, as she'd been working very quickly of late. But even Hendricks and Flores were surprised at how keen she was to go on.

"She was in the bridle the whole way," Flores said. "She's got one of those long strides, so I was surprised she was so aggressive early."

Alienation pulled at Martin Garcia and hustled her own way into third, but would eventually fade to sixth of seven. Indian Gracey was game on the rail, but couldn't quite keep up. And while Tell a Kelly did gain a momentary lead, it was Rigoletta who prevailed.

"When Tell a Kelly bumped her, it got her into the race more," said Flores of Rigoletta. "... She got aggressive and fought back. I thought I was going to get beat, but that seemed to make her madder."

And "madder" made her a winner.

I recommended Rigoletta on this blog before she sold for a comparatively affordable $35,000 as Hip 726 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. She was bred in Florida and consigned to the sale by Ocala Stud, and now races in the colors of Thor-Bred Stable LLC.

I was drawn to the daughter of Concerto-Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook, for several reasons. Most eye-catching was her 21-flat breeze for a quarter. But just as important, she already had a stakes-placed full brother, Evening Concerto, and their dam was a winning half-sister to 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

This also happens to be the female family of another of my sales tips, GOURMET DINNER (Trippi), whose dam, Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus) is likewise a winning half-sister to Rigoletta's dam and the aforementioned stakes horses. Gourmet Dinner so far is 3-for-3 with victories in the Dr. Fager Stakes and the Affirmed Stakes, both at Calder, for $137,390. That colt, campaigned by Our Sugar Bear Stable, was a bargain just like his cousin, costing $40,000.

"Pretty much a racehorse family," I wrote in recommending the filly who later would be named Rigoletta.

And it's pretty much a good year for this accomplished, under-valued, Florida-rooted female family.

Rigoletta's victory qualifies as a "win and you're in" for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. But there's a catch. She isn't Breeders' Cup-nominated. So Thor-Bred Stable will have to foot a supplemental nomination fee equal to 9 percent of the race's total purse -- that is, $180,000, since the race is valued at $2 million -- if they want their girl with the automatic bid, to actually be allowed to use it.

"My vote is we run. No guts, no glory," said her trainer, Hendricks. "You're going for the championship. I'd love to go."

And of course, I'd love to cheer for Rigoletta at Churchill.

I also hope to see Alienation there, but I think Bob Baffert should switch his wife Natalie's horse back to the grass, where she broke her maiden. Alienation, a $60,000 OBSAPR buy, was G1- and G2-placed on dirt (once in the slop) at Saratoga, as well. The sixth-place finish Sunday, when she was compromised a bit at the start, is the first time she's finished worse than second in four starts. But I think the daughter of Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West, stands a better chance in the Juvenile Filly Turf, where her early speed might control the race, than in the Juvenile Fillies, where there's always one or two or three others who are likewise quite keen to go on early.

Rigoletta's victory means my 187 juvenile sales tips of 2010 now boast their third stakes winner. Apart from Rigoletta and Gourmet Dinner, FISCAL POLICY is the other black-type winner. Alienation (G1, G2) is one of five stakes-placers, three others also graded, including Rough Sailing (G3), Stopspendingmaria (G3), still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (G3), and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'em Away.

The victory by Rigoletta is the 41st from 229 starts by the Class of 2010, a strike rate of 17.9 percent. The selections have also placed second 42 times, or 36.3 percent in the exacta. With 22 show finishes, the in-the-money rate for the group is 45.9 percent.

Combined earnings have now reached $1,423,282, or $6,215 per start.

Follow the progress of all 187 sales picks, and a few pans, in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Two tough days and another graded near-miss

The week that started well on Wednesday and Thursday with sales-pick winners in maiden races at Camarero and Fairplex is straggling home a bit with only Sunday's racing left to go. Even the favorites are falling short or outright flopping, though at least the Class of 2010 has added another graded stakes-placer, the fourth, to its roster.

Rough Sailing (pictured), an impressive maiden winner around two turns on grass at Arlington Park, was sent off as the 9/5 favorite off a 4/1 morning line in a switch to the synthetic main track there for the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. As in his debut, the Mizzen Mast colt tried to close late for the win, but this time he came up short, losing by a length to a More Than Ready maiden, Major Gain, but persevering on the rail to nip 5/2 morning-line favorite Caleb's Posse in a photo for second.

Jockey Michael Baze said Rough Sailing got a good trip this time, but just has a better kick on turf. I hope that means we might next see Rough Sailing in a race like the Oct. 10 Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland, back on the grass and with another sixteenth in which to close.

I tabbed Rough Sailing as a "Priority 1" horse for a client seeking bargain runners at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May. I liked the colt, who was Hip 250, fairly well on paper (his dam is a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle), very much admired his 23.2/35.2 breeze over a slow dirt track that isn't his preferred surface, and honestly never figured we'd get him in our price range, though he was just a $12,000 yearling. Consignor True South LLC urged me to look him over thoroughly and keep him on our list, but I was right, his $40,000 price -- while an undoubtable bargain at this stage -- was more than we came to pay.

The consignor commented that the colt later to be named Rough Sailing was "a nice horse" and "very aggressive." I liked his front end considerably, his back end a little less so, and remarked in my notes (with underlining): "Big feet." A large hoof is considered by some the hallmark of a grass horse, and with this colt being by Mizzen Mast (a better dirt horse, but from the Cozzene/Caro turf line) and out of a Woodman mare, his turf aptitude doesn't surprise me. Not being huge behind also might hint at why he's been a little slow in the early going of both races -- not a blast-from-the-gate, sprinter type -- and that he's best-suited to covering a bit of ground, another trait that makes sense considering his pedigree.

As I confided to my friends on Twitter, it is stirring and rewarding to realize you've laid your eyes and hands on such a horse before he's ever raced a step and concluded, "This one is the type."

Other Saturday action saw 5/2 morning-line favorite Reward the Lady -- second in her debut -- disappointing with a sixth-place finish among MCL $25K-$20K fillies at Philly. Penny's Boat, a debuter and good-driller, was sent out for her first start on turf at Belmont, where she straggled home seventh behind a blazing 1:09 for six furlongs run by Atlantic Voyage, a full sister to Grade 1 winner Stormello. I'm a bit puzzled by the connections choosing grass in the first place for the bow of Penny's Boat, a daughter of Songandaprayer out of a Valid Wager mare; watch for her to improve on the main track. And, what I thought was a live filly at 6/1 in her debut, After Words, was vet-scratched at Monmouth.

On Friday, what I thought were four strong chances for wins turned into just three placing. Among them, What's the Rumpus picked up a third at Fairplex and Reprized Halo finally hit the board with a second place in a $25,000 maiden-claimer at Calder. I liked Reprized Halo enough to tip him at OBSAPR, but his connections have done the colt no favors. He came close to placing at the maiden special level and they've since thrown the boy to the wolves in a pair of stakes races. On Friday, he managed to strike the lead in the stretch but couldn't hold on. At least it appears those ill-considered stakes beat-downs haven't completely broken the horse's resolve.

I was disappointed Friday evening when the connections of second-time-starter Lost Webos (fourth at the maiden special level in his debut) opted for a $25K maiden-claimer at Penn rather than the maiden special on Saturday at Philly for which the horse was cross-entered, and he still couldn't hit the board. Lost Webos was a close-up fourth at Penn Friday, but that was less than I (and gamblers) expected.

Friday's biggest hopes in my mind rested on an 8/1 morning-line shot, first-timer Surprise Strike, whom I couldn't believe was sent off at 20/1 in maiden special company at Presque Isle Downs. The Stormy Atlantic colt rated early, came through on the rail, and just missed by a half-length, finishing second in his debut in a six and a half-furlong race run in a pretty fair (for 2-year-olds) 1:17 and change. He will not be 20/1 next out.

I remember Surprise Strike well as Hip 380 at that same Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training, the first (and presently only) auction at which I've worked as a hired bloodstock advisor. When I asked consignor True South LLC to see the horse, and he was led from the dark of his stall, as his shoulders hit sunlight, my first muttered words were, "Holy shit!"

I loved that the colt was short-coupled, with a nice shoulder and great withers. He was lighter in the hind than I would prefer, but might fill out. The consignor assured me that the son of a stakes-winning Unbridled mare was better even than his pretty fair 23-flat move would indicate, saying the horse was (literally) snake-bitten on the muzzle the morning of his drill, and had swelling in his face and throat.

The colt was a $34,000 RNA at EASMAY, and now is trying to prove on the track that he's worth more than that. Friday's debut was a pretty fair start.

And on Thursday, hoping for my third consecutive sales-tip winner in two days, and at a huge price, Thistoo Shall Pass was sent off at 47/1 at Woodbine on the grass. Though sixth, she still was beaten less than four lengths. She's yet to hit the board in three races up in Canada, but is always within hailing distance of the winner, so I have the feeling her connections will keep trying Thistoo Shall Pass at the maiden special level rather than dropping her in class for a win.

Among my four sales tips in for Sunday are two more morning-line favorites, Delightful Mary in a two-turn allowance on the main track at Woodbine, and On Appeal dropping for a $12,500 maiden tag at Calder. Both have stories behind them.

Delightful Mary was the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR and won for fun her first out in Canada, covering six furlongs on synthetic in 1:09 and change without much being asked. And, much like his Calder-mate, On Appeal hit the board a couple of times among maidens before his connections made the ill-conceived choice of running him in stakes company, where he finished behind everyone, including Reprized Halo.

I honestly expected Delightful Mary to turn up next in a stakes race; after her debut, I wouldn't even have feared running her in Sunday's Swynford at Woodbine, against colts. Perhaps this two-turn test is a prep for the Oct. 9 Mazarine Breeders Cup. S.-G3 for fillies at Woodbine.

As for On Appeal, if his connections didn't break him by sending him out against stakes horses, he really should win now that he's been dropped like a stone to maiden $12,500. Look for him to be right there at the finish or nowhere, and if it's nowhere, I'd blame the clubbing he took in that recent stakes race.

Also in action Sunday are Z Breeze, a live debuter at 6/1 in Race 4 at Calder, where he gets a top rider in Manoel Cruz, and Kuhlu, 5/1 in Race 9 at Arlington. Not much of a fan of Kuhlu in this spot, as a daughter of Ghostzapper being sent out on grass. If that race somehow washes-off onto the main track, I think it helps her.

Following Saturday's action, the sales-tip list of maiden-breakers remains stuck at 26 of 187 horses recommended, or 13.9 percent. With 31 wins from now 178 starts, their strike rate has dipped to 17.4 percent. With 30 places and 17 shows, the ITM rate continues to hover around 44 percent, at 43.8.

The Class of 2010 has seven stakes horses, or 3.75 percent. The other six besides Rough Sailing include: two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER ($137,390); FISCAL POLICY ($54,080); Saratoga G1/G2-placed Alienation ($104,000); Del Mar G1-placed Rigoletta ($60,820); Spa G3-placed Stopspendingmaria ($59,167); and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'em Away ($14,574).

The class has earned a combined $989,242, which averages to $5,557.54 per start.

Follow the entire class in the list at the end of this former post.

(Thanks to Jamie Newell for the Rough Sailing photo from the Arlington-Washington Futurity. Check out Jamie's blog and her stellar photography at Smugmug.com, Flickr and Facebook. You can't miss her at a racetrack; she doubles as the turf-photography world's loveliest hat model.)

Sales tips end day with three wins, 5-for-6 in the money and G1 blacktype at Del Mar

Already sporting a maiden winner (in a "sales-tip exacta" finish) and a stakes winner at River Downs, my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010 collected an allowance win at Penn National and Grade 1 blacktype at Del Mar in two Saturday evening races.

Scoring the big-time catalog update was Rigoletta (Concerto-Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook), who was supplemented to the Darley Debutante S.-G1 at Del Mar at a total cost of $13,750 to run. It proved to be a wise move by trainer Dan Hendricks and owners Thor-Bred Stable LLC (Pavla and Erik Nygaard) when Rigoletta and jockey Mike Smith rumbled home third at nearly 31/1 behind Tell a Kelly and favorite Wickedly Perfect.

Rigoletta earned $30,000 for the placing, far more than paying back her owners' financial confidence in her. More important, she greatly elevated her residual value by stamping her own page with Grade 1 blacktype.

The filly, who closed at Del Mar to break maiden her last out at 12/1 odds, has now earned $60,820 in three lifetime starts.

She was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud.

I recommended Rigoletta as Hip 726 at OBS April, where she breezed 21-flat and yet sold for just $35,000. I particularly liked that she was a full sister to stakes-placed Evening Concerto, and that her dam was a half-sister to 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

About a half-hour earlier, on the other side of the country, sales-tip Spring Jump was winning her second consecutive race at Penn National, wiring an allowance field by more than four lengths. After an unplaced debut, Spring Jump has been first out of the gate and never headed in her next two efforts.

She paid $10.20 to win.

The dark bay filly by Jump Start-Meg's Answer, by West Acre was just a $19,000 purchase as Hip 234 at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May in Timonium, Md. I screened her among four dozen horses recommended to a client in the market for a bargain runner. He didn't get her (buying a different horse, earlier in the sale), but surely owners Dorado Circle Stables LLC have gotten a bargain, considering Spring Jump has already provided them with two win photos and $39,660 in earnings.

Spring Jump was ridden by Luis Belmonte and trained for the win by Flint Stites.

She was bred in Florida by Jeanne H. Cutrona & Jerry M. Cutrona Sr.

Through Saturday's action, my 187 sales tips have accumulated 24 winners of 29 races from 155 starts (that's an 18.7 percent strike rate), with an in-the-money rate of 43.9 percent. The class has earned $877,232 combined, for $5,660 per start.

In addition to the G1-placed Rigoletta, the group includes multiple stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (3-for-3, $137,390), new stakes winner FISCAL POLICY ($54,080), G2-placed Alienation ($54,000) and G3-placed Stopspendingmaria ($57,500), plus non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'em Away.

Alienation and Stopspendingmaria are among the eight entries in Sunday's Spinaway S.-G1 at Saratoga.

Track the progress of my sales tips at the bottom of this former post.

Long-distance Pick 3: Class of 2010 gets maiden-breakers from Woodbine, to Arlington, to Del Mar

Capping what was already a good weekend for my 2010 juvenile sales picks, on Sunday three horses from my list of 187 recommendations broke their maidens, two in their first starts and in impressive fashion.

The horses, two fillies and a colt, became the 11th, 12th and 13th to clear their maiden hurdle from my list of sales picks.

Sunday began with a smashing debut victory in Race 6 at Woodbine as the most expensive horse I tipped all winter and spring -- OBS April sales-topping Delightful Mary -- gunned from the far-outside post, forced the pace in a 10-horse race, and drew off to win by 3 3/4 lengths. The $500,000 daughter of Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy, was sent off as the favorite at slightly less than 2/1 odds. She delivered for her backers in real "racehorse time," covering six furlongs over Woodbine's synthetic surface in a rousing 1:09.57 under Corey Fraser.

I recommended the filly off her scalding 20 2/5 quarter at the OBS April under-tack show, and because of her status as a half-sister to Ohio Derby-G2 winner DELIGHTFUL KISS, who has surpassed $1 million in earnings, was G1-placed behind Quality Road in the Donn Handicap this year, and has also set a track record of 1:49 2/5 for a mile and an eighth in the All-American S.-G3 at Golden Gate Fields. Their dam didn't win until age 4, but at the time of the sale had produced four winners from five prior foals. Delightful Mary's second dam was G1-placed, and is also the granddam of G2 winner SHADOW CASTER.

Selling as Hip 949 at OBSAPR, Delightful Mary was part of the dispersal of Florida's historic Hobeau Farm. And while I didn't set out to tip sales-toppers, just racehorses, this one certainly looked the part of both.

She was "selling without reserve," I noted, "but you'll still have to break your piggy bank. And your spouse's. And your neighbor's."

Ultimately, it was trainer Mark Casse as agent for John Oxley who signed the half-million-dollar ticket. Casse was in position to see even more in Delightful Mary than did I.

"I watched (the breeze show) from over on the backside and I was there when she pulled up," Casse told Thoroughbred Times after the purchase. "As she was walking back, I walked beside her and she didn't take a deep breath. She was just remarkable how at ease she was with everything. That impressed me a lot."

While Delightful Mary has a long way to go in paying back a $500,000 purchase price, she got a $33,277 jump-start toward the black on Sunday. And her time for six furlongs as a firster suggests she could have more winning days ahead.

A short while later, roughly 500 miles southwest of Woodbine at Chicago's Arlington Park, a second debut horse from my 2010 sales tips likewise broke maiden impressively.

Rough Sailing, a colt by Mizzen Mast-Moussica, by Woodman, rated patiently in ninth place out of 10 going a mile on grass. Blocked in near the rail at the 3/16ths pole, jockey Michael Baze angled the chestnut colt six-wide in mid-stretch and thundered home. The 4/1 co-second-choice collared leader and 3/1 favorite Tiger Mike, then barreled past to win by a widening two lengths in 1:42.32 over soft turf.

Sold in May as Hip 250 at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md., the colt wasn't on my original short list of possibilities for a buyer who hired my services as a bloodstock advisor. I liked the horse in the breeze show -- his 35 2/5 for three furlongs, one of few to run the distance, certainly helped -- but I wasn't that wild about him on the page, mostly due to his dam's slow start as a producer. (On the plus side, she's a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle.)

Urged to give him a look while visiting the barn of consignor True South, I was sold on him as a prospect upon up-close examination. But I didn't expect him to stay in my buyer's price range, and he didn't, selling for $40,000 to Jack Smith Thoroughbreds, though that price was still below the sale average.

The colt, bred in Kentucky by Palides Investments N.V. Inc., was perhaps ideally suited to win under Sunday's conditions. Mizzen Mast can get an early winner (31 percent of his raced 2-year-olds), while the late Woodman, the dam-sire of Rough Sailing, was one of few U.S.-based sires whose get (and whose daughters' foals) established an average winning distance of more than a mile.

Rough Sailing collected $16,800 for the victory. He is trained by Michael Stidham.

Later, almost 2,100 miles away from Chicago (and 2,600 from Woodbine), at the West Coast's marquee summer meeting, my Class of 2010 collected one maiden win and came close to another at Del Mar.

In the first race on the card, Lake Believe (Ford Every Stream-Learn to Hope, by Moment of Hope) finished second behind Cactus Jane in a $40,000 maiden-claimer. It was the second placing in as many starts for the Louisiana-bred filly, who debuted with a show finish at Hollywood Park in June. She was a $37,000 purchase at OBS April, and has earned $9,720.

Five races later, the Class of 2010's third winner of the day emerged from the pack in the late-going, as Rigoletta and David Flores scored at 12/1 among the maiden special weight ranks for Thor-Bred Stable LLC and trainer Dan Hendricks. Rigoletta showed some early speed in the five and a half-furlong test, but was hung out five- and then four-wide on the turn. She finished strong in this, her second start, winning by a length and a quarter in 1:05.06.

Collecting $30,000 for the win, Rigoletta runs her lifetime earnings to $30,820.

The bay filly by Concerto sold as Hip 726 at OBS April, bringing $35,000 for consignor and breeder Ocala Stud. I recommended her in no small part because her full brother, gelding Evening Concerto, is a stakes-placed winner (now with more than $59,500 earned), and her dam was half to a 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

"Pretty much a racehorse family," I wrote, "and this FL-bred breezed in racehorse time, 21-flat for a quarter."

The weekend got off to an early start on Thursday evening at Del Mar, when Gibson Home Run became the 10th of my 187 sales picks to break maiden, scoring in his first out. It improved on Saturday when my Class of 2010 notched its first stakes winner in GOURMET DINNER.

After the successful four days, my sales selections have won 14 of their 91 races (15.4 percent), with 12 places and 11 shows (40.7 percent OTB), for $463,288 in earnings, or $5,091 per start. One other horse has stamped her page with black type; Stopspendingmaria in July finished second in the Schuylerville S.-G3 at Saratoga.

Track the performance of my 187 selections here.