Lost Webos helps Class of 2010 relocate maiden mojo

It had been 16 days since this blog's Sales-Tip Class of 2010 celebrated a maiden-breaker.

R Canadian Academy was a winner in maiden special weight company on Oct. 4 at Beulah Park. The drought since then was the longest my slate of 187 recommended horses had gone without getting a new first-time winner since it took a month -- from May 15 to June 16 -- between maiden-breakers 1 and 2 (Code Dancer and Lime Rock Revenge), at a time of the season when 2-year-old races are only just beginning to appear on the cards at American tracks. (Though seven horses from the class had finished second in maiden company worldwide in the interim.)

Lost Webos put an emphatic end to the skein Wednesday at Penn National, dropping all the way down to maiden-claiming $10,000 and winning like he didn't belong there. (But escaping unclaimed.)

The Formal Dinner colt debuted with a respectable fourth in maiden special weight company, but finished fourth again when dropped to maiden $32K. So the connections -- owner Sylmar Farm and trainer T. Bernard Houghton -- obviously went for the aggressive drop to get that first victory and a check for $12,240, running the Lost Webos bankroll to $15,480 from three starts.

He was sent off as the 8/5 favorite in a field of nine. David Cora positioned the eventual winner just a length or so off the brisk fractions of 22.27, 45.88 and 58.62 set by eventual place-finisher Safe Back. Lost Webos took over in the final sixteenth to win by a widening three and three-quarters lengths, covering five furlongs on dirt in 1:05.30. It was another six lengths back to third-place R H Centenario.

Lost Webos was bred in Pennsylvania by Norman and Peggy Dellheim, the later of whom was the consignor when he failed to sell both as a yearling at the OBS August sale ($1,500 RNA) and at age 2 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training, where the unsuccessful top bid was $19,000.

I recommended Lost Webos to a client as Hip 141 at EASMAY. In fulfilling the client's request for a bidding list of bargain-priced horses who still should be useful at the track, I liked the Formal Dinner colt because his sire pretty consistently produces horses that will stand up to training and give their auction-buyers a chance for a win (or a few) without breaking the bank when acquired at the sale. I was also pleased that while his dam, the Proud and True mare Fountain of Truth, was only a modest winner, his minor stakes-winning second dam (Noble Pardner) was a 100 percent producer of winners from foals. Many didn't run out for a lot of money, but they raced and they won, and you can't be a great racehorse or even a good one without first being a winning one.

We were already out of the bidding when the hammer fell just a grand shy of $20,000, without the colt selling. But his RNA price was still well below the sale's nearly $50,000 average and -- though dropped aggressively to do it -- Lost Webos has accomplished something few from that sale yet can say.

He's a winner.

Lost Webos is the 34th maiden-breaker from the 187-member sales-tip class; that's 18.2 percent of all selected horses and 35.4 percent of the 96 selections to have made at least one start. (With 96 runners, the class now has eclipsed the 50-percent-starters mark, as well, with 51.3 percent to race.)

Lost Webos is the seventh horse from my 48-horse bargain list at EASMAY to become a winner; that's 14.6 percent. Of those seven winners, even the highest-priced to go through the ring brought less than the sale average, and that horse -- $40,000 Rough Sailing -- is Grade 3-placed in the Arlington-Washington Futurity.

The victory is the 44th for the class out of 274 starts, for a strike rate of 16.1 percent. The group also has finished second a combined 53 times (35.4 percent in the exacta) and third another 27 (45.3 percent on the board). Their earnings have reached $1,899,426, for $6,932 per start.

You can follow the progress of all 187 sales-picks -- and a few pans (including $350,000-purchase Jaeger, who was fifth beaten nearly 40 lengths on a wet track at Delaware Park Wednesday) -- in the list at the bottom of this former post.

R Canadian Academy is R Thirty-Third Winner

Talk about a step down in class.

But, like most people in the horse racing realm -- be they owners, trainers or bettors -- we'll take a winner, wherever we can get her.

After spending Sunday night reveling in the upset win by my 2010 juvenile sales-tip Rigoletta in the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood Park (becoming my list's first graded winner and first Grade 1 winner in the process), my focus shifted to the upper Midwest, and a bit down the ladder in the racing world. On Monday afternoon at Thistledown in Cleveland, R Canadian Academy became the sales-tip Class of 2010's 33rd member to break her maiden.

The filly scored in her fourth lifetime start, which have been divided between "Thistle" and Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania. R Canadian Academy broke alertly, a sign of some experience perhaps, and pressed the pace along the rail before running into trouble at the five-sixteenths pole. There, she had to be checked and then angled out three wide to find running room. Still, the filly made the lead by the eighth pole and was two lengths clear on the wire.

R Canadian Academy won the $25,000 maiden-claimer in a time of 1:07.38 for five furlongs over a dirt track rated as "good." She was trained for the win by Jeffrey Radosevich and ridden by Scott Spieth.

The filly was bred in Florida by Donald R. Dizney, and was purchased as Hip 1109 by Bruno Schickedanz at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training for the bargain-basement price of $5,000. At the time, I was excited for the filly, as Schickedanz in the past has won owners' titles both at Woodbine in his native Canada, and while wintering with his horses in Florida. I hoped R Canadian Academy might get a chance to run on the lawn -- which she's undoubtedly bred to handle (more on that in a bit) -- or on synthetic at Woodbine. She breezed a promising 10.2 on synthetic at the under-tack show, and I felt she'd improve on turf, which she's yet to get.

That lack of a start on grass might in part be influenced by Schickedanz's fall from grace among the racing community in Canada earlier this year. The owner made an ill-advised decision to send his long-retired stallion Wake at Noon back to the track at the age of 13, when the former Canadian Horse of the Year's stud career was obviously sputtering, and the champion died on the track at Woodbine when he broke a leg in a workout mishap. Schickedanz and trainer Tom Marino were both ordered off the grounds at Woodbine, and are yet to be allowed a return.

So, whether or not this was the original intent, R Canadian Academy filtered her way into Radosevich's barn at Thistledown, where there is no turf course.

That's a crying shame, because R Canadian Academy is a daughter of Royal Academy, who won the Breeders' Cup Mile-G1 on grass. Her dam, Good Intentions (Anet-Orena, by Runaway Groom), was a juvenile stakes winner around two turns on turf at Calder in Florida. (A stakes winner in the strangest way, as well, dead-heating for second with Survicat and then both were elevated to first when Mia's Reflection, who crossed the wire first, was taken down to third.)

Additional immediate family includes second dam Orena's full sister RUNAWAY CHOICE, a turf-sprint stakes winner who won six times from ages 2 to 6 for $254,950; Orena's half-sister, GUESS, a Suffolk dirt-stakes winner of $130K; and stakes-winning third dam Diamond Sunjet's half-brother, millionaire WEKIVA SPRINGS.

That's a lot of female family and a pretty decent breeze for a filly who only brought $5,000.

Here's hoping Schickedanz ships her south for the winter, where she can run among fellow Florida-breds -- hopefully at least a few times on grass, and for better purses -- at Tampa or even Gulfstream.

Ninety-one of my 187 sales picks have made starts thus far at age 2; that's 48.7 percent. With the 33rd maiden-breaker, 17.7 percent of all selections and 36.3 percent of those to race, are now winners. The Class of 2010 has won 42 of 230 starts for a strike rate of 18.3 percent, placed a like number of times (that is, 42) for an in-the-exacta mark of 36.5 percent, and added 22 third-place finishes for a total of 46.1 percent on-the-board.

Total earnings for the 91 runners have now reached $1,427,242. That's $6,205 per start and $15,684 average earnings per runner.

Track the class in its entirety via the list at the bottom of this former post.

Bout of near-misses ends with a winner: Blue 'em Away becomes 14th sales tip to break maiden

Headed into the weekend, more than a dozen horses from my 2010 juvenile sales tips had chances to reach the winner's circle at tracks across North America, and even (on Sunday) in Korea.

It was a disappointing string of days and races until Saturday night, when a horse broke through that, to me, seemed one of the least likely going into the weekend.

Blue 'em Away, a colt by Bluegrass Cat-Alcina, by Kingmambo, managed to win in his fourth start, and his second since being banished to Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg after starting out his career in Kentucky. Jockey Vicky Baze "forced the pace" from the outside, according to the Equibase chart, and defeated short-price favorite Three Mile Tough by two on the wire.

The colt, bred in Ireland by Runnymede Farm, earned $6,913 for the victory, bringing his lifetime earnings to $8,702. He is now trained by Chad Torevell.

Despite his win on dirt, covering four and a half furlongs in a fairly pedestrian 54.80, I still think his connections, Arnason Farms, are missing the boat with this horse. He breezed a credible 10.2 over the Polytrack at Keeneland before selling for $20,000 at the April sale, prompting me to label him among the "steals" of the auction. (I also named a list of "potential second-chance deals" from the sale, that is, RNAs one might be able to buy privately later, and "surreal" prices, figures that I deemed too much to pay for a given horse.)

I noted that I might rather have seen a turf-raced sire bred to the Kingmambo mare, but there is dirt performance in the family. Alcina is a half-sister to four-time stakes winner CAMELLA (Housebuster) and 11-race stakes winner STONE CANYON (Mt. Livermore) -- both of whom were G3-placed -- and of Mamalik (Diesis), who was G1-placed on grass in France. But the second dam was a stakes-placer by noted turf sire Roberto.

The colt breezed a credible 10.2 over the Polytrack at Keeneland before the sale. I was further encouraged when the colt rocketed to 48.80 and 47.80 works from the gate at Keeneland. Later works of 49.40 and 1:03 flat were acceptable, albeit not outright fast.

The connections shipped the horse to a pair of races at Churchill, where he twice disappointed on dirt. Then, off he went to Winnipeg, where he posted his slowest-ever breeze (51.60) before failing as the favorite in another dirt race -- dirt being the only surface at ASD. (He's breezed more briskly once since, 37.60.)

So, honestly, I had low hopes for Blue 'em Away going into Saturday's card. Frankly, I don't think he's a dirt horse. He's breezed anywhere from "all right" to extremely well over Polytrack at Keeneland. After running dull on dirt at Churchill, I can't fathom why he got punted all the way to Manitoba rather than just up the road to Arlington Park in Chicago, where he could try a synthetic track (or shelved until the Keeneland and Turfway meets).

With as much grass as there is in the female family, and a Storm Cat-line stallion on top (certainly a sireline capable of getting a turf runner), the colt also merited at least one chance on the lawn, perhaps at Ellis Park, before being banished to confines where the only grass around is for eating.

The connections' apparent early dismissal of the colt as a Kentucky-class racehorse aside, he's now a winner, regardless what I think, and the 14th of my sales-tip class of 2010. ... But please, bring him back in the winter and let him run on Polytrack at Turfway. I really think he'll improve on something other than traditional dirt.

Our winner now duly credited, the near-misses began with a third place finish on Thursday by Admitit, a bargain-priced filly ($20,000 at OBSAPR) who finished third, again, at Woodbine, this time on the grass. She's raced three times, has a third and another second on her record (both over the all-weather track) and has earned $18,760 toward repaying her purchase price, all without winning. And Woodbine, with its lofty purse structure, has become one of the more competitive tracks in North America.

On Friday night, two selections from Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic sale in May appeared in the same maiden special weight race at Charles Town. A $10,000 EASMAY purchase, Grand Giana, showed speed, but faded to fifth, while sales-mate Sultry Gibson led until the last instant, losing by a neck to Cuttin Edge Kitten. It was the second time Sultry Gibson had placed from four starts, her first three races being at Calder in Florida. She's earned $7,590. Grand Giana has earned $2,100 from three unplaced starts.

On Saturday, the missing got even nearer in one race, as first-timer Dangerous Ghost closed fast at the end but failed to get up in time and lost by a nose to 3/2 favorite Class E Holiday in a maiden special weight at Canterbury Park. I tipped the Ghostzapper filly from OBSAPR.

Two other maiden starters this weekend ran further in arrears in races on Saturday at Presque Isle Downs; Tale of the Tiger in her second start (an MSW) and R Canadian Academy (maiden-claimer) in her debut. Another scheduled starter, Soldier's Tune, was a trainer scratch at Calder from a $32,000 maiden-claimer in which he was the morning-line second choice at 3/1.

Through Saturday's racing, 56 of my 187 sales tips have gone to post at least once (30 percent), and the class has crested the century mark in combined starts. The class has won 15 of 102 starts (14.7 percent), placing or showing another 26 times (40.2 percent in the money). GOURMET DINNER ($75,390) is the only two-time winner, and is also the group's first stakes winner. Stopspendingmaria ($57,500) is Grade 3-placed at Saratoga. Combined earnings are now $487,644, or $4,781 per start.

You can track the performance of all 187 of my 2010 sales tips here.