Panned Padua prospect gets second lifetime win

Jaeger, a colt whose purchase I panned after the 2010 Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training, collected his second lifetime win seven starts with a half-length victory this evening at Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania.

I labeled the (now) gelded son of Indian Charlie-The Church Lady, by Valid Wager, as one of eight "surreal" purchases from that KEEAPR auction. While he turned in a fleet 10-flat for an eighth-mile at the sale and does have several blacktype ancestors, I noted that none of those stakes horses from his female family were graded-caliber; in fact, virtually none were stakes-winners or stakes-placed apart from restricted company races or at minor tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park in Canada. Only one horse on Jaeger's entire page (at least at the time of his purchase) had earned more at the track than the $350,000 price Padua paid to get him.

You can credit the horse with a game effort tonight. He stalked a hot pace of 22.30 and 45.50, then persevered to wear down 7/5 favorite Peace Cat, who had inherited the lead at the top of the stretch. Final time for 5.5 furlongs on Tapeta was 1:04.83.

Still, it's hard to look past the fact that a $350,000 2-year-old was sent off at nearly 8/1 in a short, six-horse field of $40,000 claimers, and made it through the race without changing barns. And that he's earned but $46,180 toward paying back that $350K price tag, leaving him a lot of work left to do.

In Padua's defense, with only seven lifetime races under his belt -- and now gelded, "the ultimate equipment change" -- it's an effort from which Jaeger has a right to move forward.

In other "pan" news, Frothy Market, the lone horse I warned against buying out of the 2010 OBS April sale (convinced that her 9 3/5 eighth would inflate her price far beyond her value) had the best finish of her four-race career today as part of an entry at Belmont Park. While Klaravich Stables stablemate Inflation Hedge ran off with the $65,000 maiden-claimer on turf, besting even-money favorite Silver Screamer by a widening 5 3/4 lengths, Frothy Market overcame 46/1 shot Lemme to finish third by a nose, a couple of lengths behind Silver Screamer. Frothy Market, previously unplaced from three starts, has now earned back $5,542 of her $175,000 purchase price.

Finally, also at Belmont Park, one of my shortlisted horses for a client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md., gave a creditable effort in NY-bred allowance company. There Goes Molly came on down the stretch in the one-mile dirt test (just as Molly normally does) to finish third at 32/1 odds, beaten two lengths by 2/1 favorite Lady Vi.

There Goes Molly failed to sell at EASMAY when the bidding stalled at only $6,000. She then filtered down to the capable hands of owner/trainer Randi Persaud after other connections failed to find the winning training combination with her. She now has won twice for Persaud and placed four other times from a sturdy total of 16 starts, for $50,380.

I know which investment I'd rather have on the balance sheet.

A pricey bunch of 'average' horses

While selecting 187 juvenile racing prospects from a few of last year's thoroughbred auctions, I also took time to critique the purchase -- or purchase-prices, anyway -- of a handful of horses from two of those sales.

Eight horses made my "surreal" list from Keeneland's April sale, an auction in which I labeled certain other purchases the "steals" of the sale, and recommended a third list of prospects that went unsold as animals which might be purchased privately, or could turn up in a future sale and should be considered at that time. The ninth horse I panned was the lone "de-tip" I made from Ocala's huge April sale of 2-year-olds in training.

So far, my doubts have proved fairly well-placed.

On the whole, the nine horses have as of this date made 21 lifetime starts. And five are already winners, of a combined six races. But class considered, that's almost where the good news ends.

First, let's give credit where it's due to the more promising horses of this group.

Malicia, a chestnut filly by Tapit-Malia, by Regal Classic, was the cheapest of the 10 horses whose purchase prices I criticized, selling for $110,000. And my criticism of buyer Prime Equestrian in this case (but not in other cases, as you'll see) was appropriately muted. I noted that she sold for much less than the average price of a Tapit filly at that point last year ($239,375), which was a good thing, but that her female family's racetrack history was pretty hit-and-miss, and I simply would have balked at paying $110K for her. ... She promptly was sent to France and won twice in as many starts at age 2, earning $35,954. She is yet to race at 3.

And, Akkadian, a strapping dark bay colt by Tiznow who sold as Hip 86 at KEEAPR to Gary S. Broad, has worked like a champ and collected a win and a place from three starts, for $46,560. He looks like he could be a very promising racehorse, though the $270,000 purchase price at the sale could still be a little difficult to earn back. It seemed too much at the time (and perhaps still does) for a colt whose nearest graded stakes-winner on the catalog page was under his fourth dam.

It just gets ugly from there.

The group does boast three more winners, but all could be considered disappointments by their connections. Harsher critics would call them busts.

Hip 120 at KEEAPR was a horse from the "surreal" list that actually didn't sell. I was surprised that $340,000 was offered for a colt -- later named Isaac Newton -- whose equal I thought could be purchased for a small fraction of the price. But I was simply aghast that the seller, McKathan Bros., agent, didn't take it. ... On March 2 this year, in his second career start, the Bernstein colt broke maiden by a half-length at Gulfstream. For a $35,000 tag. And went unclaimed. He has earned $11,572.

Three lots later, at Hip 123, Padua Stables signed the $350,000 ticket for a colt later named Jaeger, sired by Indian Charlie and out of the Valid Wager mare, The Church Lady. He was fleet, with a 10-flat eighth. And his page had plenty of winners. But those winners and most stakes performers were largely at second-tier Canadian tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park (i.e., not top-notch Woodbine). The price seemed far too high for a horse . And, it has proven to be so. On March 5 at Laurel Park, Jaeger broke maiden among special weights in his fourth lifetime start. Exactly three weeks later, he was sixth beaten 11 3/4 in a $40K optional-claimer in which he wasn't risked for the tag. Jaeger has earned-back $28,420 of that $350,000 ticket. And that can't be what Padua Stables had hoped.

And, the fifth winner is Malibu Star, who has earned six figures already while racing in Japan. How can that be disappointing? ... Well, because buyer Katsumi Yoshida paid the second-highest price of the Keeneland April sale for this Malibu Moon colt, a cool $575,000. So a win and two unplaced efforts from three starts, earning $100,170 in the Land of the Rising Purse (where third-rate horses can be six-digit earners), has to be less than Mr. Yoshida had expected.

While it's true that plenty of time remains for any of those horses to elevate their stock dramatically -- it's just early April of their 3-year-old seasons -- the remaining four have to look like even worse investments.

Prime Equestrian dropped $310,000 apiece at KEEAPR for a Birdstone colt later named Prime Opportunist and a Rockport Harbor colt who became known as Billy Smart. That $620,000 investment and training bills since have resulted in four starts and $940 banked between the two, although I suspect both will eventually win. At some level.

"Mr. & Mrs. Moss & Diamond Pride" plunked down $200,000 for a Bernstein filly who breezed well at KEEAPR and who has a little bit of family. But I was skeptical of her chances in part because I think her sire is somewhat overrated. The filly now named J T Safe at Home has yet to make a start.

And in my lone Ocala April "pan," a High Fly filly later named Frothy Market set the under-tack show ablaze with a 9 3/5 clocking for an eighth-mile. I knew that would grossly inflate her value, far above and beyond the worth of a filly who is by a sire that so far has done virtually nothing, and out of a dam who had only raced once. She ran a fairly dull race on dirt for Klaravich Stables and W.H. Lawrence, and while she perked up a bit when given a turf try recently, Frothy Market is unplaced from two starts for $1,996.

So, about a year into their collective careers, my nine criticized juveniles of 2010 managed to cost (or RNA for) a combined $2.64 million, and have earned back $225,612, most of that by three horses.

And while I might yet be proven wrong by a horse or two, on the whole, it appears this group is just as average as I thought they'd be, despite high prices that are anything but.

Follow these nine -- and the 187 horses I did like, who were almost universally cheaper and as a group are doing undeniably better -- at this link.

Lost Webos helps Class of 2010 relocate maiden mojo

It had been 16 days since this blog's Sales-Tip Class of 2010 celebrated a maiden-breaker.

R Canadian Academy was a winner in maiden special weight company on Oct. 4 at Beulah Park. The drought since then was the longest my slate of 187 recommended horses had gone without getting a new first-time winner since it took a month -- from May 15 to June 16 -- between maiden-breakers 1 and 2 (Code Dancer and Lime Rock Revenge), at a time of the season when 2-year-old races are only just beginning to appear on the cards at American tracks. (Though seven horses from the class had finished second in maiden company worldwide in the interim.)

Lost Webos put an emphatic end to the skein Wednesday at Penn National, dropping all the way down to maiden-claiming $10,000 and winning like he didn't belong there. (But escaping unclaimed.)

The Formal Dinner colt debuted with a respectable fourth in maiden special weight company, but finished fourth again when dropped to maiden $32K. So the connections -- owner Sylmar Farm and trainer T. Bernard Houghton -- obviously went for the aggressive drop to get that first victory and a check for $12,240, running the Lost Webos bankroll to $15,480 from three starts.

He was sent off as the 8/5 favorite in a field of nine. David Cora positioned the eventual winner just a length or so off the brisk fractions of 22.27, 45.88 and 58.62 set by eventual place-finisher Safe Back. Lost Webos took over in the final sixteenth to win by a widening three and three-quarters lengths, covering five furlongs on dirt in 1:05.30. It was another six lengths back to third-place R H Centenario.

Lost Webos was bred in Pennsylvania by Norman and Peggy Dellheim, the later of whom was the consignor when he failed to sell both as a yearling at the OBS August sale ($1,500 RNA) and at age 2 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training, where the unsuccessful top bid was $19,000.

I recommended Lost Webos to a client as Hip 141 at EASMAY. In fulfilling the client's request for a bidding list of bargain-priced horses who still should be useful at the track, I liked the Formal Dinner colt because his sire pretty consistently produces horses that will stand up to training and give their auction-buyers a chance for a win (or a few) without breaking the bank when acquired at the sale. I was also pleased that while his dam, the Proud and True mare Fountain of Truth, was only a modest winner, his minor stakes-winning second dam (Noble Pardner) was a 100 percent producer of winners from foals. Many didn't run out for a lot of money, but they raced and they won, and you can't be a great racehorse or even a good one without first being a winning one.

We were already out of the bidding when the hammer fell just a grand shy of $20,000, without the colt selling. But his RNA price was still well below the sale's nearly $50,000 average and -- though dropped aggressively to do it -- Lost Webos has accomplished something few from that sale yet can say.

He's a winner.

Lost Webos is the 34th maiden-breaker from the 187-member sales-tip class; that's 18.2 percent of all selected horses and 35.4 percent of the 96 selections to have made at least one start. (With 96 runners, the class now has eclipsed the 50-percent-starters mark, as well, with 51.3 percent to race.)

Lost Webos is the seventh horse from my 48-horse bargain list at EASMAY to become a winner; that's 14.6 percent. Of those seven winners, even the highest-priced to go through the ring brought less than the sale average, and that horse -- $40,000 Rough Sailing -- is Grade 3-placed in the Arlington-Washington Futurity.

The victory is the 44th for the class out of 274 starts, for a strike rate of 16.1 percent. The group also has finished second a combined 53 times (35.4 percent in the exacta) and third another 27 (45.3 percent on the board). Their earnings have reached $1,899,426, for $6,932 per start.

You can follow the progress of all 187 sales-picks -- and a few pans (including $350,000-purchase Jaeger, who was fifth beaten nearly 40 lengths on a wet track at Delaware Park Wednesday) -- in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Jaeger first to defend his own honor

A $350,000 sales colt is the 5/2 favorite on the morning line for a maiden special weight race at Delaware Park Saturday, the first of a handful of horses whose prices I took a stand against this year to step up to the gate and try to make me eat my words.

Jaeger certainly has all the advantages a horse could ask. Pedigree? He's by $70,000 per mating, sire of champions Indian Charlie out of The Church Lady, a Valid Wager mare who has produced two stakes horses by Doneraile Court: SHEYENNE GIRL and Codio. His second dam was a stakes-placer and stakes-producer; his third dam bore six stakes horses, two of them blacktype winners. Successful operators Padua Stables clunked down major coin to buy Hip 123 at Keeneland's April sale, and turned him over to arguably the best trainer in America, Todd Pletcher, who has named an excellent jockey in Fernando Jara to ride.

What's not to like?

Well, not much, really, except the price vs. the expectations. And that's what I detailed on my blog after that Keeneland sale.

While there is black type on the page, not only is none of it graded, it really hasn't even occurred outside of restricted company. His stakes siblings performed at Northlands Park and Hastings Park in Canada -- certainly better than not performing anywhere, but hardly the equivalent of winning a highly competitive stakes race at Woodbine, Canada's premier track.

Jaeger's dam was unraced, which always leaves me wondering why -- is it some conformational fault or other deficiency she might have passed along to the foal? While stakes-placed Codio ran 21 times and earned $148,035, stakes winning Sheyenne Girl made four starts at 2 last year, collected $42,545, but hasn't seen a track again through nine and a half months of 2010; that's suspicious. And bear in mind Indian Charlie only raced five times himself, though his progeny are averaging about 13.7 starts for their careers, which is average durability.

Sound or not, Jaeger's four older siblings to race -- all multiple winners and two stakes horses, mind you, useful racehorses -- combined haven't quite earned $300,000; less than what was paid for this one horse.

Still, I understand that despite being unraced, The Church Lady has produced four winning racehorses, and that's to her credit. As stated when panning this price as among the "surreal" from KEEAPR, I conceded that this one has every chance to be a good racehorse, too. But it will take better than "good" to earn back $350,000.

Of course, earnings at the track aren't the only consideration. A son of Indian Charlie from a blacktype female family -- even restricted blacktype -- has some hope of a stallion career, if he can win a stakes race somewhere himself, preferably more than one and of course, most preferably graded. That was no doubt in the back of Padua's minds when the stable spent more than double the sale's average price to get him.

Provided I haven't wagered on the race and since I don't yet own any to compete with them, I never root against a horse. They're magnificent animals and I respect them all. And I have no reason to cheer against Padua, Pletcher and Jara on Saturday, even though I took a bit of a stand against this horse on price at KEEAPR.

It's good to see him make the racetrack as a 2-year-old -- the first of that small handful of 10 or 12 horses I "went against" -- and it will be fun to see whether he can meet or exceed his buyers' expectations.

Track all the horses I did pick -- that's 187 from a slew of this year's 2-year-old sales -- and the few I panned in the list at the bottom of this former post.