A pricey bunch of 'average' horses

While selecting 187 juvenile racing prospects from a few of last year's thoroughbred auctions, I also took time to critique the purchase -- or purchase-prices, anyway -- of a handful of horses from two of those sales.

Eight horses made my "surreal" list from Keeneland's April sale, an auction in which I labeled certain other purchases the "steals" of the sale, and recommended a third list of prospects that went unsold as animals which might be purchased privately, or could turn up in a future sale and should be considered at that time. The ninth horse I panned was the lone "de-tip" I made from Ocala's huge April sale of 2-year-olds in training.

So far, my doubts have proved fairly well-placed.

On the whole, the nine horses have as of this date made 21 lifetime starts. And five are already winners, of a combined six races. But class considered, that's almost where the good news ends.

First, let's give credit where it's due to the more promising horses of this group.

Malicia, a chestnut filly by Tapit-Malia, by Regal Classic, was the cheapest of the 10 horses whose purchase prices I criticized, selling for $110,000. And my criticism of buyer Prime Equestrian in this case (but not in other cases, as you'll see) was appropriately muted. I noted that she sold for much less than the average price of a Tapit filly at that point last year ($239,375), which was a good thing, but that her female family's racetrack history was pretty hit-and-miss, and I simply would have balked at paying $110K for her. ... She promptly was sent to France and won twice in as many starts at age 2, earning $35,954. She is yet to race at 3.

And, Akkadian, a strapping dark bay colt by Tiznow who sold as Hip 86 at KEEAPR to Gary S. Broad, has worked like a champ and collected a win and a place from three starts, for $46,560. He looks like he could be a very promising racehorse, though the $270,000 purchase price at the sale could still be a little difficult to earn back. It seemed too much at the time (and perhaps still does) for a colt whose nearest graded stakes-winner on the catalog page was under his fourth dam.

It just gets ugly from there.

The group does boast three more winners, but all could be considered disappointments by their connections. Harsher critics would call them busts.

Hip 120 at KEEAPR was a horse from the "surreal" list that actually didn't sell. I was surprised that $340,000 was offered for a colt -- later named Isaac Newton -- whose equal I thought could be purchased for a small fraction of the price. But I was simply aghast that the seller, McKathan Bros., agent, didn't take it. ... On March 2 this year, in his second career start, the Bernstein colt broke maiden by a half-length at Gulfstream. For a $35,000 tag. And went unclaimed. He has earned $11,572.

Three lots later, at Hip 123, Padua Stables signed the $350,000 ticket for a colt later named Jaeger, sired by Indian Charlie and out of the Valid Wager mare, The Church Lady. He was fleet, with a 10-flat eighth. And his page had plenty of winners. But those winners and most stakes performers were largely at second-tier Canadian tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park (i.e., not top-notch Woodbine). The price seemed far too high for a horse . And, it has proven to be so. On March 5 at Laurel Park, Jaeger broke maiden among special weights in his fourth lifetime start. Exactly three weeks later, he was sixth beaten 11 3/4 in a $40K optional-claimer in which he wasn't risked for the tag. Jaeger has earned-back $28,420 of that $350,000 ticket. And that can't be what Padua Stables had hoped.

And, the fifth winner is Malibu Star, who has earned six figures already while racing in Japan. How can that be disappointing? ... Well, because buyer Katsumi Yoshida paid the second-highest price of the Keeneland April sale for this Malibu Moon colt, a cool $575,000. So a win and two unplaced efforts from three starts, earning $100,170 in the Land of the Rising Purse (where third-rate horses can be six-digit earners), has to be less than Mr. Yoshida had expected.

While it's true that plenty of time remains for any of those horses to elevate their stock dramatically -- it's just early April of their 3-year-old seasons -- the remaining four have to look like even worse investments.

Prime Equestrian dropped $310,000 apiece at KEEAPR for a Birdstone colt later named Prime Opportunist and a Rockport Harbor colt who became known as Billy Smart. That $620,000 investment and training bills since have resulted in four starts and $940 banked between the two, although I suspect both will eventually win. At some level.

"Mr. & Mrs. Moss & Diamond Pride" plunked down $200,000 for a Bernstein filly who breezed well at KEEAPR and who has a little bit of family. But I was skeptical of her chances in part because I think her sire is somewhat overrated. The filly now named J T Safe at Home has yet to make a start.

And in my lone Ocala April "pan," a High Fly filly later named Frothy Market set the under-tack show ablaze with a 9 3/5 clocking for an eighth-mile. I knew that would grossly inflate her value, far above and beyond the worth of a filly who is by a sire that so far has done virtually nothing, and out of a dam who had only raced once. She ran a fairly dull race on dirt for Klaravich Stables and W.H. Lawrence, and while she perked up a bit when given a turf try recently, Frothy Market is unplaced from two starts for $1,996.

So, about a year into their collective careers, my nine criticized juveniles of 2010 managed to cost (or RNA for) a combined $2.64 million, and have earned back $225,612, most of that by three horses.

And while I might yet be proven wrong by a horse or two, on the whole, it appears this group is just as average as I thought they'd be, despite high prices that are anything but.

Follow these nine -- and the 187 horses I did like, who were almost universally cheaper and as a group are doing undeniably better -- at this link.

Pair of 'pans' debut, finish sixth and 10th

Two horses whose purchases I panned from this year's juvenile sales made their debuts on Sunday at Aqueduct in New York and Fair Grounds in New Orleans, with neither finishing on the board.

Frothy Market and Billy Smart finished sixth and 10th in their races, respectively, beaten roughly a combined 30 lengths.

In the process of putting together a 187-horse list of recommended picks from several juvenile sales this spring, I also took a stand against a handful of horses, often based more on their eventual prices at auction than their lack of any promise as race prospects.

Most of those -- eight of nine, to be exact -- were detailed in an installment of a three-part series I blogged following Keeneland's April sale. I picked the "steals" of the auction, I also listed horses that didn't sell but might be worth acquiring later, privately or at another sale ("second-chance deals"), and I named the ones whose prices (or in one case, huge price that was refused) made me gag a bit even though it wasn't my money being spent ("the surreal"). The ninth horse whose price, in my opinion, exceeded her promise, was Frothy Market, who was the only horse out of the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction to be insulted by my upturned nose.

It was obvious that Frothy Market would bring big bucks as Hip 1194 at OBSAPR. She'd just blasted a breeze-show-best 9 3/5 seconds for an eighth-mile. Speed sells, in her case to agent Buzz Chace for a whopping $175,000. She races for Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence.

But I declined to be swayed by her freakish breeze, believing the dark bay daughter of High Fly-Jovetta, by Elusive Quality was a bad bet. For starters, her young sire has done very little at stud. On the female side, her dam raced just once, and I have something of an aversion to the dam's sire, Elusive Quality, whose results on the track (with the exception of a few huge names) don't remotely match his stud fee. Frothy Market's second dam was a stakes-placer who won 17 times and produced G3 winner HAWKS LANDING -- that's nice -- but there's very little blacktype on the page.

On Sunday at Aqueduct, Frothy Market made her debut for the training barn of Chad Brown, with David Cohen in the irons. She didn't keep up with the 22.55/46.19 pace -- trailing by five lengths after a quarter and four lengths after a half -- nor did she have a finishing kick, finishing sixth of eight behind Backslash (who won in 1:12.94), beaten 14 1/4 lengths. Frothy Market, who was 5/1 on the morning-line but was sent off at over 15/1, earned $300.

Late in the afternoon at Fair Grounds, Billy Smart made his debut for the barn of trainer Mike Maker, coming home last of 10 at about 8/1 on the tote board, beaten 15 1/4. He ran a bit green, a bit wide, and was never really in contention. Fair Grounds paid no money past fifth place. The six-furlong event was won by Prime Cut in 1:12.47.

Billy Smart (Rockport Harbor-Limestone Landing, by Red Ryder) was one of several expensive purchases by a new and then somewhat mysterious concern that was very active at KEEAPR; a France-based group known as Prime Equestrian S.A.R.L. That organization bought three of the eight horses that made it on my list of pans from the auction, certainly a dubious honor.

This colt was handsome, with a bald face and stockings. But that can't account for his selling at a price of $310,000, as Hip 52. Especially since his blacktype-dotted catalog page and other credentials were good, but not phenomenal.

Billy Smart did breeze a very credible 21.4 over a quarter and is a half-brother to both Remington Park stakes winner and Louisiana Derby G2-placed IT'SALLINTHECHASE, and to G3-placed Upscaled. But I couldn't ignore that even those two relative standouts (pun not intended) were only a combined 3-for-29 lifetime. Billy Smart's dam was an 0-for-8 maiden and her sire was unraced (albeit a full brother to the great Mr. Prospector), and this colt's sire, Rockport Harbor, is an unproven freshman who made just eight starts himself, another example of the Unbridled line's tendency for brilliance coupled with retiring early and unsound. Back to the good, Billy Smart's second dam, ALVARADA, was a G3-placer, produced a couple of stakes horses, and is the tail-female line of many more.

So as I wrote at the time, "it isn't that I wouldn't want this horse at all; I might. But I wouldn't want him at $310,000. Not when I feel like I could buy four to six horses for that money who all would, in my mind and at this stage, be equally likely as this one to succeed at the track."

And honestly, that "four to six" horses for $310,000 would still be pretty generous in your spending.

With the two debuts, the nine-member "pan" list has now sent four horses to the track; Isaac Newton (another out of an Elusive Quality mare) is unplaced in one start, while Jaeger managed to dead-heat for third in his debut, but was beaten nearly 40 lengths when sent out around two turns in the mud in his second lifetime race.

The combined record of the pans is now one third-place dead-heat from five starts, for $5,822 in combined earnings. Granted, it's a very small sample (only nine horses) and still very early (December of their juvenile seasons). They all have time to come on and be world-beaters. But considering $1,175,000 was bid just on the four to have raced so far, you have to figure 0-for-5 and barely hitting the board once isn't the sort of early performance for which their connections would have hoped.

Among the pans, I say look out for Akkadian, a son of Tiznow who is breezing very briskly in California. I did find things to like about that horse, and he's absolutely gorgeous. But still, to pay back the $270,000 shelled out for him at KEEAPR, he'll have to do an awful lot of running.

You can follow all 187 of my picks and the nine panned horses in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Note: I'm not rooting against any of these horses nor their connections, even though I've spoken out against them as lacking value at the sales. But just as with the 187 horses I recommended, their performance merits consistent reporting to detail my own performance in handicapping the sales.