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Eight horses made my "surreal" list from Keeneland's April sale, an auction in which I labeled certain other purchases the "steals" of the sale, and recommended a third list of prospects that went unsold as animals which might be purchased privately, or could turn up in a future sale and should be considered at that time. The ninth horse I panned was the lone "de-tip" I made from Ocala's huge April sale of 2-year-olds in training.
So far, my doubts have proved fairly well-placed.
On the whole, the nine horses have as of this date made 21 lifetime starts. And five are already winners, of a combined six races. But class considered, that's almost where the good news ends.
First, let's give credit where it's due to the more promising horses of this group.
Malicia, a chestnut filly by Tapit-Malia, by Regal Classic, was the cheapest of the 10 horses whose purchase prices I criticized, selling for $110,000. And my criticism of buyer Prime Equestrian in this case (but not in other cases, as you'll see) was appropriately muted. I noted that she sold for much less than the average price of a Tapit filly at that point last year ($239,375), which was a good thing, but that her female family's racetrack history was pretty hit-and-miss, and I simply would have balked at paying $110K for her. ... She promptly was sent to France and won twice in as many starts at age 2, earning $35,954. She is yet to race at 3.
And, Akkadian, a strapping dark bay colt by Tiznow who sold as Hip 86 at KEEAPR to Gary S. Broad, has worked like a champ and collected a win and a place from three starts, for $46,560. He looks like he could be a very promising racehorse, though the $270,000 purchase price at the sale could still be a little difficult to earn back. It seemed too much at the time (and perhaps still does) for a colt whose nearest graded stakes-winner on the catalog page was under his fourth dam.
It just gets ugly from there.
The group does boast three more winners, but all could be considered disappointments by their connections. Harsher critics would call them busts.
Hip 120 at KEEAPR was a horse from the "surreal" list that actually didn't sell. I was surprised that $340,000 was offered for a colt -- later named Isaac Newton -- whose equal I thought could be purchased for a small fraction of the price. But I was simply aghast that the seller, McKathan Bros., agent, didn't take it. ... On March 2 this year, in his second career start, the Bernstein colt broke maiden by a half-length at Gulfstream. For a $35,000 tag. And went unclaimed. He has earned $11,572.
Three lots later, at Hip 123, Padua Stables signed the $350,000 ticket for a colt later named Jaeger, sired by Indian Charlie and out of the Valid Wager mare, The Church Lady. He was fleet, with a 10-flat eighth. And his page had plenty of winners. But those winners and most stakes performers were largely at second-tier Canadian tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park (i.e., not top-notch Woodbine). The price seemed far too high for a horse . And, it has proven to be so. On March 5 at Laurel Park, Jaeger broke maiden among special weights in his fourth lifetime start. Exactly three weeks later, he was sixth beaten 11 3/4 in a $40K optional-claimer in which he wasn't risked for the tag. Jaeger has earned-back $28,420 of that $350,000 ticket. And that can't be what Padua Stables had hoped.
And, the fifth winner is Malibu Star, who has earned six figures already while racing in Japan. How can that be disappointing? ... Well, because buyer Katsumi Yoshida paid the second-highest price of the Keeneland April sale for this Malibu Moon colt, a cool $575,000. So a win and two unplaced efforts from three starts, earning $100,170 in the Land of the Rising Purse (where third-rate horses can be six-digit earners), has to be less than Mr. Yoshida had expected.
While it's true that plenty of time remains for any of those horses to elevate their stock dramatically -- it's just early April of their 3-year-old seasons -- the remaining four have to look like even worse investments.
Prime Equestrian dropped $310,000 apiece at KEEAPR for a Birdstone colt later named Prime Opportunist and a Rockport Harbor colt who became known as Billy Smart. That $620,000 investment and training bills since have resulted in four starts and $940 banked between the two, although I suspect both will eventually win. At some level.
"Mr. & Mrs. Moss & Diamond Pride" plunked down $200,000 for a Bernstein filly who breezed well at KEEAPR and who has a little bit of family. But I was skeptical of her chances in part because I think her sire is somewhat overrated. The filly now named J T Safe at Home has yet to make a start.
And in my lone Ocala April "pan," a High Fly filly later named Frothy Market set the under-tack show ablaze with a 9 3/5 clocking for an eighth-mile. I knew that would grossly inflate her value, far above and beyond the worth of a filly who is by a sire that so far has done virtually nothing, and out of a dam who had only raced once. She ran a fairly dull race on dirt for Klaravich Stables and W.H. Lawrence, and while she perked up a bit when given a turf try recently, Frothy Market is unplaced from two starts for $1,996.
So, about a year into their collective careers, my nine criticized juveniles of 2010 managed to cost (or RNA for) a combined $2.64 million, and have earned back $225,612, most of that by three horses.
And while I might yet be proven wrong by a horse or two, on the whole, it appears this group is just as average as I thought they'd be, despite high prices that are anything but.
Follow these nine -- and the 187 horses I did like, who were almost universally cheaper and as a group are doing undeniably better -- at this link.
