Bessie M gets elusive stakes trophy

Two starts after settling for second by a desperate head in stakes company at Calder Race Course, BESSIE M assured her name will appear in all-caps on catalog pages for decades to come by taking the Dolly Jo Stakes at Calder on Sunday by a comfortable 2 1/4 lengths.

The 3-year-old filly by Medallist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat, has proved to be a fantastic claim by Platinum Equestrian Corp. and trainer Antonio Sano. After taking her for $25,000 from a NW2L claiming event at Gulfstream in January, Bessie M's new connections have never seen her finish off the board. After a third and a second-place finish, she posted back-to-back wins for them at Calder in April and May, then hit the board in the Regal Gal Stakes (third) and Leave Me Alone Stakes (second a head) before winning in optional-claiming company her last out at Calder, on Aug. 20.

On Sunday, Bessie M and Daniel Centeno rated in fifth, 6 1/2 lengths off a blistering 21.13 opening quarter set by Orlando Bocachica and Afleet Lass, then blew by the rest of the field and wore down the game leader in the stretch to draw clear by the wire. Max Speed and Juan Leyva finished third by 6 1/4 lengths. Final time for six furlongs was 1:10.81.

Bessie M was bred in Maryland by Mr. & Mrs. Charles McGinnes, and I had hoped her connections might prep her for the $100,000 Maryland Million Distaff at seven furlongs this coming weekend at Laurel. No complaints, however, about her scoring a stakes win, wherever it might be.

I shortlisted Bessie M as a Priority 2 prospect for a bargain-seeking client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. She sold to William H. Harris for $35,000 as Hip 59 and presented him with a win photo from a dead-heat victory at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old. Harris would lose her on that January day at Gulfstream for $25,000, and Platinum Equestrian has been well-rewarded for its claim ever since.

I actually questioned the price Harris paid at the sale, but then again, we were there looking to buy a horse for even less than $35,000 -- which was already at least 25 percent below the sale average. But I stated here that: "This girl oughta be a decent racehorse for someone (though) she only rated Priority 2 status for me primarily because of the very slow start by her sophomore sire, who has just 10 winners so far from his freshman crop of 59 foals. ... (It) was hard to deny the fleetness of her 22 2/5 quarter over a slow track."

With the stakes score, Bessie M becomes the first stakes-winner from that bargain-basement list of 48 horses, whose average bid (sold or RNA) at the sale was under $24,000 and less than half the sale average. She is among four horses stakes-placed or better from that group of 48.

Bibblesman, who sold for $22,000 as Hip 337, has two wins and placed second in the Peppy Addy Stakes at Parx for $90,860. Spring Jump, a $19,000 purchase as Hip 234, is 3-for-11 with a second-place finish in the White Clay Creek Stakes at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old, for $80,700.

The real tragedy from the group is Rough Sailing, a $40,000 buy as Hip 250, who broke maiden on Arlington's grass at first asking and was second in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 for $37,534, but slipped entering the first turn of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was euthanized after breaking his shoulder in the fall.

Of the 48 bargain prospects, there are 43 starters (89.6 percent), 25 winners (52.1 percent) and 13 multiple-winners (27.1 percent).

Click here to follow all 187 sales selections, plus a few I went against.

Bittersweet Breeders' Cup; emphasis on 'bitter'

It's taken me a couple of days to comment on the Breeders' Cup -- that is, on the two sales-tips of mine who made that championship weekend of racing -- because from the relative high of Friday, my heart was broken on Saturday with the death of a horse I'd quickly grown to admire.

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 on Friday, sales-tip Delightful Mary held off a late challenge or two and salvaged third, but couldn't get to the shoo-in champion 2-year-old filly, unbeaten Awesome Feather, and runner-up R Heat Lightning.

On Saturday, I was hopeful that long-shot Rough Sailing might likewise figure in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But as he entered the first turn a little bit wide, the Mizzen Mast colt's feet just shot out from under him (on a grass course that had been described as slick by some) and he went crashing to the ground with jockey Rosie Napravnik.

Thankfully, Rosie escaped without any serious injuries. Rough Sailing wasn't so lucky. He got to his feet and ran down the backstretch before being caught, but after being vanned away from the course, the colt was found to have suffered a broken shoulder and was euthanized.

I was heartbroken, and I know that my disappointment is a shadow of what his connections, Jack H. Smith III thoroughbreds and trainer Mike Stidham, must have felt.

Working for the first time as a paid bloodstock advisor, I shortlisted Rough Sailing as a "Priority 1" horse for a client when he sold for $40,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training this May. Catalogued as Hip 250, I liked the colt on paper -- his dam is a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle -- and was impressed by his 23.2/35.2 breeze over a slow dirt track that proved not to be his preferred surface. Though he was just a $12,000 yearling, I didn't figure we could afford him based on my inspection, and we couldn't, though his price was still almost 20 percent below the sale average.

I liked that the colt was described to me as "very aggressive," I took note that his front end was very impressive (though his hind a little less so), and it was impossible to miss his large hoof. I underlined the words "big feet" on his catalog page, realizing that a large hoof is considered by some to be one sign of a turf horse. Since the colt hailed from the Cozzene/Caro sireline, which most frequently produces grass horses, and was out of a Woodman mare, his turf aptitude was no surprise to me, and Rough Sailing came through with a first-out maiden-breaking win around two turns on turf at Arlington that left me quite hopeful.

His next race was the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 at the same racetrack, but on the Polytrack main course. I can't fault the connections for trying the race; it is a graded-stakes at the track where their colt was already in training, he was obviously sharp, and sometimes turf form translates well to synthetic. And Rough Sailing made a good bid, finishing second to Major Gain.

But after jockey Michael Baze said the colt had a better finishing kick on the grass, it surprised me that the connections elected to run him on Polytrack again in Keeneland's Dixiana Breeders' Futurity-G1. In a troubled trip, Rough Sailing came home a steady, but unsuccessful sixth.

I was excited to see him headed back to the grass. And I'm nothing short of crushed that he's gone after just four races, with one win, one Grade 3 placing, and $37,534 in earnings.

Delightful Mary, conversely, seems to still have a bright future ahead. The $500,000 sales-topper from Ocala's April sale, the Limehouse filly out of the French Deputy mare Deputy's Delight won her first two starts on synthetic at Woodbine -- one sprinting, one routing -- then was second to Wyomia in the Mazarine S.-G3. With her show finish in the Juvenile Fillies, she has earned back $310,377 of that purcahse price.

I wish good luck to her owner, John C. Oxley, and trainer, Mark Casse, as she moves forward from here.

Track the entire sales-tip class -- 187 horses -- at this former post.

Breeders' Cup pre-entries include two from tips

After much anticipation, the pre-entries for the 2010 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs were finalized on Monday released on Wednesday -- a record 184 horses nominated to 14 races.

Among the 61 pre-entries by the connections of juveniles, five horses were cross-entered on both dirt and turf, meaning 56 horses were submitted for the draw. Two of those were members of my sales-tip Class of 2010: Delightful Mary (Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy) and Rough Sailing (Mizzen Mast-Moussica, by Woodman).

More about them later.

There were 18 entries for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, 13 for the Juvenile Fillies on the main track, a sparse 11 pre-entries for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and 19 for the male division of the Juvenile Turf. Horses can be cross-entered in two races on pre-entry day, but by Tuesday (Nov. 2), connections must have made a final decision on which race they're running and pay the final entry fees at that time.

The pre-entry story at Breederscup.com states that each of the 14 races is limited to 14 starters, plus up to two on the also-eligible list. This is contradictory to the "pre-entry procedures" and rules as detailed elsewhere on the site, which make provisions for some races of only 12 horses and flatly state under Entry Procedures: "There will be no also-eligible list or scratch time." (If Breederscup.com needs a copyeditor and fact-checker, I happen to know -- and be -- one who is unemployed.)

Owners Darrell & Evelyn Yates and trainer Wayne Catalano, connections of Jordy Y, who is No. 4 in order of mention (is that entry preference?) on the linked list above in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, would rather she run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she's fifth on the list and will surely get in. Andrew Rosen's Theyskens' Theory, trained by Brian Meehan, also was cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies (first preference of her connections, last of 13 in draw-priority) and the Juvenile Fillies Turf (second choice of her connections, 15th in preference for making the draw).

Among males, Robert Teel's and Wes Ward's Madman Diaries was entered with first-preference in the Juvenile Turf, where he ranks fifth among all entries. He stands eighth of 11 for admission to the rather lightly subscribed Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Two Juvenile Turf entries are also subscribed as first-preference to the Juvenile; Catesby Clay's Rogue Romance (second on the turf list and ninth among dirt entries), who is trained by Kenny McPeek, and Italian Gran Criterium-G1 winner Biondetti (12th in the turf and 10th of 11 on dirt), who is owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

Delightful Mary -- whom I tipped on this blog as a live (and likely expensive) sales prospect before she became the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR -- is 11th of 13 in entry-ranking among entries in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and will make the field if healthy to go. She gives every indication of being ready, firing a minute-flat bullet for five furlongs on Monday over the Churchill strip, fastest of 32 at the distance.

The John Oxley-owned, Mark Casse trained Limehouse filly collected two easy wins over Polytrack at Woodbine -- one sprinting and one in allowance company around two turns -- before being upset as the odds-on favorite by Wyomia in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S.-G3 her last out.

Owners Edward A. Seltzer and Beverly Anderson and trainer Daniel J. Vella -- connections of Wyomia -- shockingly to me did not enter the Vindication filly in the Juvenile Fillies, opting instead for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She sits 16th on the entry list, but will sneak into the 14-starter gate if both Jordy Y and Theyskens' Theory go in the Juvenile Fillies as their entry preferences suggest.

I think Delightful Mary looks sharp going into the race and has every reason to both move up on the switch from Polytrack to real dirt, and to handle an off-track if one is presented.

The other sales-tip to make racing's marquee day is Rough Sailing, who stands eighth in admission preference among pre-entries for the Juvenile Turf; seventh if you consider Rogue Romance's likely defection to the dirt division. I'm glad to see the colt owned by Jack Smith III and trained by Michael Stidham headed back to the grass, the surface on which he convincingly (with a huge late kick, despite a troubled trip) broke his maiden going two turns at Arlington Park.

Rough Sailing is a gutsy horse and battled his way to a place-finish behind Major Gain (also nominated to the Juvenile Turf) on Polytrack in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. But his third race was a step up to Grade 1 company on Keeneland's Poly in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, a race in which he again had some trouble, but kept grinding in the stretch to finish sixth, beaten 10.

Jockey Michael Baze has said that he thinks Rough Sailing has a better closing kick on the lawn, so while the Juvenile Turf is more heavily subscribed, I'd rather see him go back to grass than try a new surface again, the dirt this time. (Maybe later.)

I had Rough Sailing categorized as a "Priority 1" on a 48-horse short-list for a client seeking bargain runners out of the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this May. After seeing him up-close, I didn't expect him to stay in our price range -- and he didn't -- but at a price of $40,000, he still sold for nearly 20 percent less than the average horse at that auction.

While it will be exciting to watch those two on one of racing's biggest weekends, the pre-entries were a little disappointing to me. I had hoped for potentially two or three more horses from my sales-tips to be among the pre-entries.

RIGOLETTA -- a 33/1 upsetter of Juvenile Fillies third-ranked Tell a Kelly when they met in the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at Hollywood Park -- was a lock to make the field for the B.C., but would have to be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup at a cost of $180,000. Sealing her non-entry was a recent announcement by trainer Dan Hendricks declaring the Thor-Bred Stable-owned filly out of the Breeders' Cup with a minor splint injury.

Hendricks said he wanted to be sure Rigoletta was ready for the winter/spring season at Santa Anita (over a brand-new dirt track that I think moves her up vs. synthetics). Curiously -- unless the fee was paid prior to discovery of her injury -- Rigoletta was among the nominations announced this week for the $500,000 Delta Princess S.-G3 to be run at Delta Downs on Nov. 20.

Also on that whopping, 117-filly Delta Princess nominee list are sales-tips FISCAL POLICY and Rigoletta's fellow Cal-shipper and maiden-winner-only Benecia.

Another filly I had fully expected to be pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup -- and probably cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Fillies Turf -- was the Bob Baffert-trained, Jill Baffert-owned Alienation. A debut winner on grass (in fleet time and a thrilling photo) and G1/G2-placed on dirt at Saratoga, she flopped after breaking awkwardly on synthetic in that Oak Leaf Stakes won by Rigoletta. I'm not sure the speedball daughter of Rock Hard Ten needed to be in the Juvenile Fillies, going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt (though I think she'll eventually stay a route of ground if they can get her to rate), but I would have liked to see her incredible early foot employed in trying to steal the Juvenile Fillies Turf on the front end.

Alienation, whom I tipped out of OBSAPR and has earned $104,000 off a $60,000 purchase, was nominated two weeks ago (after her Oak Leaf also-ran) for the Pocahontas S.-G2 at a mile on the main track at Churchill this weekend. Those entries haven't been drawn-up yet, and I'm curious to see if Alienation is among them or whether the Bafferts have decided to rest her a spell. Fiscal Policy happens to be nominated to the Pocahontas, as well.

Finally, I thought there was a chance GOURMET DINNER might make the Breeders' Cup at Churchill. The $40,000 sales-tip of mine out of OBSAPR's first session was 3-for-3 with two stakes wins and seemed a possibility to follow filly Awesome Feather into the Breeders' Cup as undefeated queen and king of the Florida Stallion Series of restricted races at Calder.

Then he was upset in the third leg of the series, the $350,000 In Reality Stakes, by $94 shocker REPRIZED HALO -- yet another OBSAPR sales tip of mine, who sold a day after Gourmet Dinner for a paltry $23,000. That certainly derailed any designs the connections had on an unbeaten, championship season for Gourmet Dinner. Though looking at the small group of nominees -- 11 juvenile males, one of which is already pointed to the turf instead and including a couple who probably can't get the distance -- it still might have been worth a shot.

Instead, both Gourmet Dinner and Reprized Halo are among the incredible 241 horses nominated to the $1 million Delta Jackpot, also on Nov. 20 at Delta Downs. Also included in that vast list of nominees is 2010 sales-tip Category Killer, whose two races thus far include a five-length runner-up finish to now stakes-winning sales tip PULGARCITO in their mutual debut at Hoosier Park, and a return to the scene of that "sales-tip exacta" for a 15-plus-length maiden-special romp on Sept. 30.

Category Killer fired a 36-flat bullet at Churchill Tuesday and is also nominated to the $100,000 Iroquois S.-G3 to be run at that track on Sunday. Plus, he's listed as an entry on the overnights for a Saturday evening allowance event at Delta Downs. Busy little fellow.

With the addition of stakes-placer Spring Jump on Wednesday, the list of 2010 sales-tip stakes horses has reached a dozen. In addition to those mentioned, stakes placers include still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (second in G3s on turf and Poly at Woodbine), G3-placed Stopspendingmaria and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'Em Away.

Follow the entire sales-tip Class of 2010 in the list at the end of this link.

Big thumbs-up for Pulgarcito in Zia stakes

PULGARCITO -- a gelding whose name means "Tom Thumb" in Spanish -- earned positive reviews Sunday afternoon at Zia Park in Hobbs, N.M., as he stalked leader Jam'n Jackson for a half-mile, then grabbed the lead in the stretch and drew clear to win the $55,000 Governor's Cup Stakes by two lengths.

Jam'n Jackson faded to third behind Race for Jake.

Ken Tohill handled the ride aboard the winner for trainer Steve Asmussen. Tohill and Pulgarcito sat in second, a length or two off very fast 22.38 and 44.51 opening fractions set by Jam'n Jackson and Alejandro Medellin, before pouncing in the stretch. Final time for the six furlongs was 1:10.84.

The gelding was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst.

With the win, Pulgarcito runs his career mark to a pair of wins and a second from three four starts, for $61,170. He also becomes the fifth stakes winner, and the 11th horse stakes-placed or better, from my 187-member Class of 2010; horses I selected and tipped on this blog (or for a client) at various 2-year-old sales this year.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was catalogued as Hip 849 in the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. He failed to sell when the bidding topped-out at $37,000.

After he failed to sell at OBSAPR, he was successfully hawked for $40,000 at the OBSOPN sale in June. He races for Heiligbrodt Racing Stable.

The gelding won his debut on Aug. 18 at Hoosier Park, wiring a maiden special weight field by more than five lengths; a field that included runner-up and fellow debuting sales-tip Category Killer, who returned to Hoosier in similar company his next out to win by more than 15 lengths.

Pulgarcito then shipped to Oklahoma's Remington Park, where he finished second to a stakes-placed horse named Brickyard Fast (who would later race unsuccessfully in Grade 1 company) in a $75,000 optional-claimer. In his third start, Pulgarcito trailed early and never recovered in finishing fifth in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington.

More forwardly placed Sunday, as he had been in his first two starts, he performed in similar, strong fashion.

I broke a rule of mine (so maybe it's more a "guideline") in recommending Pulgarcito, whose sire, Greatness, was a winning racehorse, but could boast no stakes-quality performances at the track. Still, Greatness as the son of Mr. Prospector -- one of the 20th century's prepotent sires -- and of the mare Harbour Club (Danzig), a sharp juvenile and track record-setting Grade 3 stakes winner, was undeniably well-bred. He's passed some of those good qualities along to his get, as well. Going into the sale, Greatness had sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals -- though only one prior stakes winner.

Among those prior winners by Greatness is a full sibling to Pulgarcito, named Great Attack, who won twice in 2009 at age 2. So particularly after Pulgarcito blazed a 10-flat eighth at the OBSAPR under-tack show, all signs pointed to an early winner.

After the weekend's action, 99 of the 187 sales tips have now made at least one start as a juvenile; that's 52.9 percent. There are 34 winners, for 18.2 percent of all selections and 34.3 percent of those to race.

The class has now won 45 of 282 starts, and though the pace of victories has declined a bit, that's still 16 percent. (Well, 15.9574468 percent, to be a bit more precise. At that point, we can round up.)

They've placed another 55 times and were the show-finishers in another 27 races, for 35.5 percent in the exacta and 45 percent on the board.

Total earnings are inching closer to $2 million, with $1,968,603 banked by the 99 starters. That's $6,981 per start, and an average of $19,885 per starter.

Besides Pulgarcito, stakes winners from my sales recommendations include: RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S.-G1, $180,820); two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (3-for-4 lifetime, 1st Florida Stallion Dr. Fager S., 1st Florida Stallion Affirmed S., 2nd Florida Stallion In Reality St., $209,660); REPRIZED HALO (1st Florida Stallion In Reality S., handing Gourmet Dinner his only loss, $254,016); and FISCAL POLICY (Coca-Cola Bassinet S., $54,080).

Of the six additional stakes-placers, five of those have come in graded company, with seven second-place finishes. They include: Alienation (2nd Spinaway S.-G1, 2nd Adirondack S.-G2, $104,000); still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (Summer S.-G3T, Grey S.-G3A, $119,845); Delightful Mary (2nd Mazarine S.-G3, $112,377); Stopspendingmaria (2nd Schuylerville S.-G3, $59,167); Rough Sailing (2nd Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3, $36,200); and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'Em Away (2nd Osiris S.-N, $16,053).

Follow the exploits of all my sales picks, and a few pans, in the lengthy list at the bottom of this former post.

Finding the bright side in a disappointing weekend; Delightful Mary now graded stakes-placed

Heading into the Columbus Day weekend, I had high hopes for my blog's sales-tip Class of 2010.

Beginning Thursday, the class of 187 runners -- which have already achieved a few impressive accomplishments -- had 15 maidens going in 12 races on two continents, two winners seeking their second and third lifetime victories, respectively, and five horses with live chances in six stakes races, four of those graded.

After Saturday's racing, the group had gone winless from a dozen starts. There were a couple of good efforts in the mix; three maidens finished second and another third, for instance. And the two winners were each beaten less than a length for third place in steps up against tougher, non-stakes company.

But from three stakes starts, a trio with real potential came home empty-handed (win-wise, anyway) with Pulgarcito a distant fifth in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park Friday (a race won in barely more than 1:09 flat for six furlongs) and Rough Sailing a wide and troubled sixth in the Grade 1 Dixiana at Keeneland on Saturday.

The only stakes-placing was a new addition to the stakes-horse list, Delightful Mary, who finished second as the heavy favorite behind Wyomia in the Mazarine S.-G3 at Woodbine in Canada.

Delightful Mary was the $500,000 sales-topper from the April Ocala sale of 2-year-olds in training. She came into the Mazarine off two victories by open lengths at Woodbine, going six furlongs among maidens and at a mile-seventy while hand-ridden in allowance company. But Wyomia got the jump on everyone Saturday -- after a late veterinarian's scratch at the gate caused the field to be unloaded and reloaded -- and after setting moderate fractions, she had plenty in the tank to hold off Delightful Mary at the wire.

The Grade 3 placing did pay more than $44,000 in U.S. currency, elevating Delightful Mary's earnings from three starts to a tidy $112,377. ... A start, at least, toward paying back the sum plunked down for her at OBSAPR on behalf of owner John Oxley. And she should have plenty of good, winning days ahead.

We'll discuss her more at length on those days.

On Sunday and Monday of the holiday weekend, eight more maidens get a chance to collect their first victories, one of those in stakes company. Rockin Heat is 3-for-3 at finishing second, including his last start in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine. Today, he'll take a shot at breaking maiden in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes on Woodbine's Polytrack, though he seems to be drawn-in amongst the toughest company of his life.

Other stakes starters include FISCAL POLICY -- one of the class' three stakes winners thus far -- trying to run her overall win-streak to three in the E.L. Gaylord Stakes at Remington, and dual-winner Hold Still in the Grade 2 Clasico Dia de la Raza at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico.

The class of 2010 includes 33 winners. Through 243 starts, they have combined for 42 wins (17.3 percent strike rate), 46 second-place finishes (36.2 percent in the exacta) and 23 show finishes (45.7 percent in the money). Collective earnings have reached $1,495,772, or $6,155 per start.

Follow the entire sales-tip Class of 2010 in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Run tell that! ... Sales-tip Rigoletta at nearly 33/1 upsets odds-on Tell a Kelly in Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes

When odds-on favorite Tell a Kelly tried to bull her way through between the leaders and onto the lead at the top of the stretch in the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood Park Sunday afternoon, track announcer Vic Stauffer said the Darley Debutante champion "(had) momentum."

But 33/1 Rigoletta was having none of it.

The Dan Hendricks-trained, David Flores-ridden underdog battled back on the outside (as did early leader Indian Gracey on the rail) and it was a three-horse head-knocker to the finish. The eighth-mile gut-check was won by the long-shot, Rigoletta, by a half-length, making her the first graded stakes winner of my sales-tip class of 2010 -- and a Grade 1 winner at that. (Race video at Bloodhorse.com.)

I was shocked when the morning-line odds were posted for this race. Rigoletta was installed as the co-long-shot at 12/1, despite her third place finish behind Tell a Kelly in the aforementioned Darley Debutante. Izshelegal, a graded-placed maiden who was fourth in the Debutante, was just 4/1 on the morning line. And that was just the beginning.

I e-mailed a friend about the race; subject line: "WTF on odds for the Oak Leaf?"

I understood 8/5 on Tell a Kelly. I could get that Rigoletta's fellow sales-tip, Alienation, was 7/2, although I thought she'd be a bad bet here. That filly's early speed was likely to be tested by Indian Gracey (but wasn't, since Alienation made an awkward break and never quite caught up to the pace). But my mind was boggled that G1-placed (on synth) Rigoletta would have the same odds as Fairplex maiden-breaking stakes-winner True Way of Grace, whom Rigoletta defeated (considerably) in breaking her maiden.

And there was simply no possible explanation for why Pacific Pride was 4/1 on the morning line off 78 and 79 speed figures at Del Mar in finishing fourth and first at the maiden level. Rigoletta debuted at Hollywood with an Equibase speed figure of 68 when she was unplaced at first asking. But her maiden-breaking win at Del Mar scored an 81, and she improved to 89 in finishing third in the Debutante. (By contrast, Tell a Kelly scored a 101 for her Debutante win.)

As I told my friend, in essence, if Rigoletta kept improving as she had each race prior, and Tell a Kelly bounced even a little, an upset wasn't out of the realm of possibility.

Imagine my amazement as I watched the Oak Tree meeting live at Calracing.com and Rigoletta drifted higher and higher -- at one point not far from post time sitting at 44/1, highest on the board, while a horse she'd beaten in their mutual last race, Izshelegal, was still at 6/1.

Rigoletta ended up going off as the second-longest price at 32.7/1, while True Way of Grace was 34.5/1. Tell a Kelly was sent away at 1/2.

When the gates opened, Indian Gracey sprang to a length and a half lead, aided in no small part by Alienation's clumsy beginning. Rigoletta, who had closed from deep to break her maiden and to place third in the Debutante, was running second in this one. I thought Rigoletta might be closer to the pace in this race, as she'd been working very quickly of late. But even Hendricks and Flores were surprised at how keen she was to go on.

"She was in the bridle the whole way," Flores said. "She's got one of those long strides, so I was surprised she was so aggressive early."

Alienation pulled at Martin Garcia and hustled her own way into third, but would eventually fade to sixth of seven. Indian Gracey was game on the rail, but couldn't quite keep up. And while Tell a Kelly did gain a momentary lead, it was Rigoletta who prevailed.

"When Tell a Kelly bumped her, it got her into the race more," said Flores of Rigoletta. "... She got aggressive and fought back. I thought I was going to get beat, but that seemed to make her madder."

And "madder" made her a winner.

I recommended Rigoletta on this blog before she sold for a comparatively affordable $35,000 as Hip 726 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. She was bred in Florida and consigned to the sale by Ocala Stud, and now races in the colors of Thor-Bred Stable LLC.

I was drawn to the daughter of Concerto-Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook, for several reasons. Most eye-catching was her 21-flat breeze for a quarter. But just as important, she already had a stakes-placed full brother, Evening Concerto, and their dam was a winning half-sister to 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

This also happens to be the female family of another of my sales tips, GOURMET DINNER (Trippi), whose dam, Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus) is likewise a winning half-sister to Rigoletta's dam and the aforementioned stakes horses. Gourmet Dinner so far is 3-for-3 with victories in the Dr. Fager Stakes and the Affirmed Stakes, both at Calder, for $137,390. That colt, campaigned by Our Sugar Bear Stable, was a bargain just like his cousin, costing $40,000.

"Pretty much a racehorse family," I wrote in recommending the filly who later would be named Rigoletta.

And it's pretty much a good year for this accomplished, under-valued, Florida-rooted female family.

Rigoletta's victory qualifies as a "win and you're in" for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. But there's a catch. She isn't Breeders' Cup-nominated. So Thor-Bred Stable will have to foot a supplemental nomination fee equal to 9 percent of the race's total purse -- that is, $180,000, since the race is valued at $2 million -- if they want their girl with the automatic bid, to actually be allowed to use it.

"My vote is we run. No guts, no glory," said her trainer, Hendricks. "You're going for the championship. I'd love to go."

And of course, I'd love to cheer for Rigoletta at Churchill.

I also hope to see Alienation there, but I think Bob Baffert should switch his wife Natalie's horse back to the grass, where she broke her maiden. Alienation, a $60,000 OBSAPR buy, was G1- and G2-placed on dirt (once in the slop) at Saratoga, as well. The sixth-place finish Sunday, when she was compromised a bit at the start, is the first time she's finished worse than second in four starts. But I think the daughter of Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West, stands a better chance in the Juvenile Filly Turf, where her early speed might control the race, than in the Juvenile Fillies, where there's always one or two or three others who are likewise quite keen to go on early.

Rigoletta's victory means my 187 juvenile sales tips of 2010 now boast their third stakes winner. Apart from Rigoletta and Gourmet Dinner, FISCAL POLICY is the other black-type winner. Alienation (G1, G2) is one of five stakes-placers, three others also graded, including Rough Sailing (G3), Stopspendingmaria (G3), still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (G3), and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'em Away.

The victory by Rigoletta is the 41st from 229 starts by the Class of 2010, a strike rate of 17.9 percent. The selections have also placed second 42 times, or 36.3 percent in the exacta. With 22 show finishes, the in-the-money rate for the group is 45.9 percent.

Combined earnings have now reached $1,423,282, or $6,215 per start.

Follow the progress of all 187 sales picks, and a few pans, in the list at the bottom of this former post.

EASMAY: Leaving no stone unturned

Anyone who follows this blog is aware by now that significant attention has been paid the past couple of months to publicizing my selections from several juvenile sales this spring, and following the exploits of those horses as I try to prove that maybe I have a clue about what makes a good, young racehorse.

The longer I've followed my sales selections -- 187 horses from the February and April Ocala sales, Keeneland April, the Adena Springs sale at Ocala, and Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic sale in Timonium, Md. -- the more my brain endeavors to leave no stone unturned in examining whether my selections are a collective statistical success, failure, or merely average for the breed, the latter of which could have been accomplished by having a monkey point at pages in the catalog.

In light of, well, shedding light on the subject, I decided it was worthwhile to add an extensive slate of horses to the group I'm routinely following.

That is, every horse among the 405 originally catalogued for the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training, otherwise known as EASMAY (Eastern May 2-year-olds).

It is fair, I believe, to compare the performance of my 187 selections from all sales against the breed averages for percentages of starters, winners stakes winners and so forth.

But EASMAY was the first sale at which I was actually employed as a bloodstock advisor, specifically, in search of the most promising runners available among the sale's least expensive horses. And the more starts my selections from EASMAY have made, the more wins and paychecks they have collected, the more I wondered whether what seemed to be a successful beginning really was any better (or even worse) than the catalogued horses as a whole.

It turns out that, so far, so pretty good.

My new research project began Monday night by downloading the complete sales results spreadsheet from Fasig-Tipton's Web site, in Excel format. I deleted fields of information I didn't really need -- like broodmare sires -- and added others, for starts, wins, places, shows, earnings and a text rundown of stakes performances. The spreadsheet does much of the math for me, so long as I input the data correctly, and the results at this point are encouraging.

Of the 405 horses in the catalog, Fasig-Tipton reported that 273 were sold for $13,099,500 -- an average of $47,984. The median price according to Fasig-Tipton was $27,000. Those prices should include a handful of private sales, after the auction process failed to yield a sufficient bid. Another 39 went through the ring, but their reserve price was not attained, and they went home with their consignors.

Those figures suggest that 93 horses were "outs" at the sale; withdrawn for whatever reason. Two of those horses ended up being on the list of 48 potential bargains I prepared for my client, but they went through the breeze show, I saw them on the hoof at the barns, and they were only withdrawn day-of-sale -- one due to a sudden health problem and the other for reasons I don't happen to know. Many others on the "out" list never showed up and breezed at all. But a number of them are running, perhaps sold through the Barrett's ring out west, also in May, or having stayed with their owners or changed hands privately.

Finally, by way of full disclosure, the one horse with which I played role in the purchase, a filly now named Quiet Lorraine, was not on the original list of 48 horses compiled for my client. I am tracking her separately on the blog, and the statistics presented here detail the original 48 horses (which are numbered among the aforementioned 187).

Now that the background has been detailed, let's get down to brass tacks. How are my selections from EASMAY performing?

Better than average, say the early returns. In some cases considerably. And throughout these statistics that follow, recall that I was tasked to find the horses that would be worth owning among the very least expensive on the grounds; not to identify the most likely stars from all 312 animals that eventually passed through the auction ring.

As of statistics available via Brisnet on Monday night (and the Korean Stud Book, as several horses were purchased to race overseas) these are the early findings. Statistics compiled by my selections are included in the group, which actually, you might note, serve to elevate the group's performance in virtually every category.

Statistic	Catalog	Selected
Horses	405	48 (11.9% of catalogued)
Runners	108 (26.7%)	17 (35.4%)
Winners	22 (5.4%)	6 (12.5%)
Starts	212	42
Wins	24	7
Win Pct.	11.3%	16.7%
In the Money	36%	38%
Earnings	$932,480	$180,735
Earnings/Start	$4,398.49	$4,303.21
Stakes Horses(Wnrs)	4(1)	1(0)

From these statistics -- admittedly quite early in their careers -- the horses I selected at EASMAY have sent a larger percentage of their number to the starting gate, are breaking maiden at a rate more than double the catalog as a whole (12.5 percent vs. 5.4 percent), are winning their starts at a rate nearly 50 percent higher than their peers, and despite being the cheaper horses at the sale, aren't running in cheaper company. At least, not if average earnings per start are an indicator, as those dollars are virtually equal.

I was a bit alarmed when I realized there were four stakes horses already out of this sale and only one of them (G3-placed Rough Sailing) appeared in my numbers. That was before I realized that every other stakes horse to emerge thus far from the EASMAY catalog, didn't actually go through the sale. Saratoga G3 turf winner SOLDAT, catalogued as Hip 218 at EASMAY, G3-placed dual winner Jordy Y (Hip 93) and Woodbine G3-placed More Than Real (Hip 240) all blew off the breeze show and sale. They simply weren't there for me to identify; though had they been, they still might not have ended up on my bargain-hunter list.

Edit (Wednesday, 9/22): In breaking down these statistics further, a struck upon perhaps an even better way to measure the performance of my selections vs. the horses in this sale: That is, to only compare horses that were in the sale.

This time I deleted from the Excel spreadsheet all horses that did not even make the breeze show; in other words, those that neither I nor anyone was able to review and consider for purchase. Then, I deleted my selections, leaving me a remainder that are all the horses I saw on the grounds -- at least in the under-tack show, if not in person (well more than a hundred of them) at their consignors' barns -- but declined. The following table shows the performance thus far of horses in the sale (including late "outs") that I selected for my bargain-conscious buyer, vs. all the horses I tabbed as ones we weren't after; passed-up either because I believed they weren't worth his money, or were horses too expensive for his budget. (And, trust me, some were both).

Viewed through this lens, the performance advantage thus far for my bargain-babies is even more stark.

Statistic	Passed	Selected
Horses	277	48
Runners	78 (28.2%)	17 (35.4%)
Winners	12 (4.3%)	6 (12.5%)
Starts	145	42
Wins	12	7
Win Pct.	8.3%	16.7%
In the Money	33.1%	38%
Earnings	$484,149	$180,735
Earnings/Start	$3,338.96	$4,303.21
Stakes Horses(Wnrs)	0(0)	1(0)
Avg. Buy/RNA $	$49,992	$24,196

Potentially, the horses in the column on the left might go on over the next three or four years to produce average statistics that equal or even exceed the horses I selected, whose early performance is measured on the right. But scanning down the columns suggests that right now, the horses I selected for my client are doing a bit more and -- bottom-line, in the last row of the chart -- were bought or RNA'd for less than half as much as the others.

Certainly there will be observers who believe that, over time, the expensive horses will prove their worth versus my more affordable selections. At least, I'm sure their buyers are hoping so.

In other curious statistics, of the four wins logged by EASMAY graduates who sold for $10,000 or less, two were posted by my selections (Grand Giana and Jitalian). Of the three victories posted by EASMAY grads who sold for between $10,001 and $20,000, two are by one horse -- my sales-pick Spring Jump, who is 2-for-3 and has earned $39,660 off a $19,000 purchase.

I realize touting these statistics now is sort of like knocking in a run with a double in the top of the second inning and pointing at the scoreboard. But the record-keeping needs to begin somewhere, and should be documented throughout, to keep myself (if no one else) abreast of the line score.

Weekend ends with pair of wins; earnings top $1M

Maybe I've been spoiled by a measure of success.

I griped in this space on Saturday evening about a tough couple of racing days in which my 2010 juvenile sales tips fell short of my (and occasionally bettors') expectations. But after a pair of wins from three starts on Sunday, I realize now that I was grousing in the middle of a race-week in which the tips scored victories at 23.5 percent rate (4-for-17), added three maiden-breakers to the roster (including one Sunday, the 27th of 187 sale-selections), and put another graded stakes-placer on the board in Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 runner-up Rough Sailing.

Perhaps most noteworthy, the group crested $1 million in earnings.

Sunday's action for the Class of 2010 began at Woodbine, where by far the most expensive horse among my sales tips won her second lifetime race in as many starts, even more easily than she won her first.

Delightful Mary (Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy) was the $500,000 sales-topper at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. She broke maiden at Canada's premier racetrack on Aug. 8, covering six furlongs in 1:09 and change, winning by three and a half lengths without a whole lot being asked.

On Sunday, two scratches left her but three foes to face in a mile-seventy allowance on the synthetic main track at Woodbine. And Delightful Mary dispatched them easily, grabbing the lead right out the gate for jockey Corey Fraser and widening throughout while well in hand to score by eight lengths in 1:43.84.

Delightful Mary was bred in Florida by late, legendary Hobeau Farm, and is owned by John C. Oxley. Her trainer is Mark Casse. She banked $34,599 U.S. for the victory, running her career total from two starts to $67,876.

While I spent much of my time this spring -- both unpaid and paid, as a bloodstock advisor at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic in May -- searching for more bargain-priced runners, I simply couldn't ignore the prospects of Hip 949 at OBS April. She practically set fire to the track with a 20 2/5 quarter in the breeze show, is a half-sister to millionaire Ohio Derby-G2 winner DELIGHTFUL KISS, and her second dam, Hobeau-homebred BISHOP'S DELIGHT (Sawbones-Med Coed, by Dr. Fager) was both G1-placed and also the granddam of G2 winner SHADOW CASTER.

As part of the Hobeau Farm dispersal, the filly was selling without reserve. "(But) you'll still have to break your piggy bank. And your spouse's. And your neighbor's."

I thought she would head straight to stakes company after her razor-sharp debut. Almost certainly the hunt for catalog blacktype to enhance this investment will begin in her next start.

Later in the afternoon, far down the Eastern Seaboard at Calder Race Course in Florida, a struggling sales-tip broke his maiden when dropped steeply for a tag.

On Appeal (Closing Argument-Oh Nyet, by Time for a Change) was last seen in a stakes race, while still a maiden. Finishing last there -- and despite having hit the board twice at higher levels for his connections, breeder/owner Janet Erwin and Trainer Terry Oliver -- he was dropped for a $12,500 tag on Sunday, and won for fun at even money.

Over a sloppy strip, the colt sloshed to the lead under Daniel Coa, led all seven foes by 10 lengths at the top of the stretch, and skipped home an easy winner by five and a half. He covered seven furlongs in 1:29.29 without being asked in a final furlong jogged in 14.90.

The victory gives On Appeal a win, a second and a third from six starts at age 2, with $13,464 in earnings.

"I'm trying not to let this colt's breathtaking breeze of 20.4 for a quarter overwhelm me," I wrote in recommending the colt when he sold for $25,000 as Hip 218 at OBSAPR. In part that was because his sire -- though a courageous second to Giacomo in the Kentucky Derby -- is an unproven sophomore. But the dam here has produced 7-for-7 winners, including multiple Calder stakes-placed filly Prohibido Olividar, 11-race winner Dinner Withawinner, and other foals who have won, seven and six times.

"So the odds are, this colt will run and win," I concluded. "That's reinforced by a second dam, TITLE VICTORY (Title Game) who won 17 times, including the Ballerina H., Vanity H., and the British Columbia Oaks."

I think the horse is better than a $12,500 claimer, and apparently so does somebody else. He was claimed from Erwin and Oliver by new owner Wayne A. Dacosta and trainer Jason Dacosta.

Also at Calder Sunday, Z Breeze, a sales-tip debuter who I considered to be a live horse at 6/1 on the morning line, was sent off at nearly 12/1 in an open maiden special weight. He and Manoel Cruz made the lead and held it until the stretch, but eventually were passed by not one, but five horses, finishing sixth, yet beaten only a length and a quarter total in a cavalry-charge finish.

Like 20/1 sales-tip Surprise Strike, second beaten only a length Friday at Presque Isle Downs, I doubt Z Breeze can be had at 12/1 next time, despite a finish of "6" for his debut.

With the pair of successes, the Class of 2010 now has 33 wins from 182 starts worldwide, for a strike rate of 18.1 percent. They've finished second 31 times and third on 17 occasions for an in-the-money percentage of 44.5 percent.

Sunday's action swelled the sales-tips' collective bankroll to $1,039,272, or $5,710 per start.

That sum, I believe, is a significant figure. In her book "The Home Run Horse," author Glenye Cain notes that a past Thoroughbred Times analysis of the most active 25 bloodstock agents at thoroughbred yearling sales found that only six of them had a positive return-on-investment at the racetrack from their purchases. (Though many manage to break even or profit through residual value of the horse at the end of its career, particularly in stallion syndication, with the whoppers covering for the losses by losers.)

The horses I recommended from this spring's sales -- while not yearlings, and obviously much more finished products -- have already earned back roughly one-sixth of their combined purchase and RNA prices. I find that encouraging, considering it isn't even Sept. 15 of their juvenile season, and fewer than half of the 187 selections have even made their first start.

And, though they aren't yearlings, I have friends in the business who would rather take their chances on the unbroken youngsters than roll the dice with 2-year-olds. With yearlings, a buyer can select on pedigree and conformation, then finish the horse their own way. In buying juveniles, a buyer has to hope that the consignor hasn't pushed the horse to the point of breaking just to get him to the breeze show.

At any rate, the group is off to a pretty fair start, and I hope that their winning, getting stakes horses (two winners and four graded-placers) and earning their keep, doesn't stop.

Follow the progress of my sales tips here.

Two tough days and another graded near-miss

The week that started well on Wednesday and Thursday with sales-pick winners in maiden races at Camarero and Fairplex is straggling home a bit with only Sunday's racing left to go. Even the favorites are falling short or outright flopping, though at least the Class of 2010 has added another graded stakes-placer, the fourth, to its roster.

Rough Sailing (pictured), an impressive maiden winner around two turns on grass at Arlington Park, was sent off as the 9/5 favorite off a 4/1 morning line in a switch to the synthetic main track there for the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. As in his debut, the Mizzen Mast colt tried to close late for the win, but this time he came up short, losing by a length to a More Than Ready maiden, Major Gain, but persevering on the rail to nip 5/2 morning-line favorite Caleb's Posse in a photo for second.

Jockey Michael Baze said Rough Sailing got a good trip this time, but just has a better kick on turf. I hope that means we might next see Rough Sailing in a race like the Oct. 10 Bourbon S.-G3 at Keeneland, back on the grass and with another sixteenth in which to close.

I tabbed Rough Sailing as a "Priority 1" horse for a client seeking bargain runners at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May. I liked the colt, who was Hip 250, fairly well on paper (his dam is a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle), very much admired his 23.2/35.2 breeze over a slow dirt track that isn't his preferred surface, and honestly never figured we'd get him in our price range, though he was just a $12,000 yearling. Consignor True South LLC urged me to look him over thoroughly and keep him on our list, but I was right, his $40,000 price -- while an undoubtable bargain at this stage -- was more than we came to pay.

The consignor commented that the colt later to be named Rough Sailing was "a nice horse" and "very aggressive." I liked his front end considerably, his back end a little less so, and remarked in my notes (with underlining): "Big feet." A large hoof is considered by some the hallmark of a grass horse, and with this colt being by Mizzen Mast (a better dirt horse, but from the Cozzene/Caro turf line) and out of a Woodman mare, his turf aptitude doesn't surprise me. Not being huge behind also might hint at why he's been a little slow in the early going of both races -- not a blast-from-the-gate, sprinter type -- and that he's best-suited to covering a bit of ground, another trait that makes sense considering his pedigree.

As I confided to my friends on Twitter, it is stirring and rewarding to realize you've laid your eyes and hands on such a horse before he's ever raced a step and concluded, "This one is the type."

Other Saturday action saw 5/2 morning-line favorite Reward the Lady -- second in her debut -- disappointing with a sixth-place finish among MCL $25K-$20K fillies at Philly. Penny's Boat, a debuter and good-driller, was sent out for her first start on turf at Belmont, where she straggled home seventh behind a blazing 1:09 for six furlongs run by Atlantic Voyage, a full sister to Grade 1 winner Stormello. I'm a bit puzzled by the connections choosing grass in the first place for the bow of Penny's Boat, a daughter of Songandaprayer out of a Valid Wager mare; watch for her to improve on the main track. And, what I thought was a live filly at 6/1 in her debut, After Words, was vet-scratched at Monmouth.

On Friday, what I thought were four strong chances for wins turned into just three placing. Among them, What's the Rumpus picked up a third at Fairplex and Reprized Halo finally hit the board with a second place in a $25,000 maiden-claimer at Calder. I liked Reprized Halo enough to tip him at OBSAPR, but his connections have done the colt no favors. He came close to placing at the maiden special level and they've since thrown the boy to the wolves in a pair of stakes races. On Friday, he managed to strike the lead in the stretch but couldn't hold on. At least it appears those ill-considered stakes beat-downs haven't completely broken the horse's resolve.

I was disappointed Friday evening when the connections of second-time-starter Lost Webos (fourth at the maiden special level in his debut) opted for a $25K maiden-claimer at Penn rather than the maiden special on Saturday at Philly for which the horse was cross-entered, and he still couldn't hit the board. Lost Webos was a close-up fourth at Penn Friday, but that was less than I (and gamblers) expected.

Friday's biggest hopes in my mind rested on an 8/1 morning-line shot, first-timer Surprise Strike, whom I couldn't believe was sent off at 20/1 in maiden special company at Presque Isle Downs. The Stormy Atlantic colt rated early, came through on the rail, and just missed by a half-length, finishing second in his debut in a six and a half-furlong race run in a pretty fair (for 2-year-olds) 1:17 and change. He will not be 20/1 next out.

I remember Surprise Strike well as Hip 380 at that same Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training, the first (and presently only) auction at which I've worked as a hired bloodstock advisor. When I asked consignor True South LLC to see the horse, and he was led from the dark of his stall, as his shoulders hit sunlight, my first muttered words were, "Holy shit!"

I loved that the colt was short-coupled, with a nice shoulder and great withers. He was lighter in the hind than I would prefer, but might fill out. The consignor assured me that the son of a stakes-winning Unbridled mare was better even than his pretty fair 23-flat move would indicate, saying the horse was (literally) snake-bitten on the muzzle the morning of his drill, and had swelling in his face and throat.

The colt was a $34,000 RNA at EASMAY, and now is trying to prove on the track that he's worth more than that. Friday's debut was a pretty fair start.

And on Thursday, hoping for my third consecutive sales-tip winner in two days, and at a huge price, Thistoo Shall Pass was sent off at 47/1 at Woodbine on the grass. Though sixth, she still was beaten less than four lengths. She's yet to hit the board in three races up in Canada, but is always within hailing distance of the winner, so I have the feeling her connections will keep trying Thistoo Shall Pass at the maiden special level rather than dropping her in class for a win.

Among my four sales tips in for Sunday are two more morning-line favorites, Delightful Mary in a two-turn allowance on the main track at Woodbine, and On Appeal dropping for a $12,500 maiden tag at Calder. Both have stories behind them.

Delightful Mary was the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR and won for fun her first out in Canada, covering six furlongs on synthetic in 1:09 and change without much being asked. And, much like his Calder-mate, On Appeal hit the board a couple of times among maidens before his connections made the ill-conceived choice of running him in stakes company, where he finished behind everyone, including Reprized Halo.

I honestly expected Delightful Mary to turn up next in a stakes race; after her debut, I wouldn't even have feared running her in Sunday's Swynford at Woodbine, against colts. Perhaps this two-turn test is a prep for the Oct. 9 Mazarine Breeders Cup. S.-G3 for fillies at Woodbine.

As for On Appeal, if his connections didn't break him by sending him out against stakes horses, he really should win now that he's been dropped like a stone to maiden $12,500. Look for him to be right there at the finish or nowhere, and if it's nowhere, I'd blame the clubbing he took in that recent stakes race.

Also in action Sunday are Z Breeze, a live debuter at 6/1 in Race 4 at Calder, where he gets a top rider in Manoel Cruz, and Kuhlu, 5/1 in Race 9 at Arlington. Not much of a fan of Kuhlu in this spot, as a daughter of Ghostzapper being sent out on grass. If that race somehow washes-off onto the main track, I think it helps her.

Following Saturday's action, the sales-tip list of maiden-breakers remains stuck at 26 of 187 horses recommended, or 13.9 percent. With 31 wins from now 178 starts, their strike rate has dipped to 17.4 percent. With 30 places and 17 shows, the ITM rate continues to hover around 44 percent, at 43.8.

The Class of 2010 has seven stakes horses, or 3.75 percent. The other six besides Rough Sailing include: two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER ($137,390); FISCAL POLICY ($54,080); Saratoga G1/G2-placed Alienation ($104,000); Del Mar G1-placed Rigoletta ($60,820); Spa G3-placed Stopspendingmaria ($59,167); and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'em Away ($14,574).

The class has earned a combined $989,242, which averages to $5,557.54 per start.

Follow the entire class in the list at the end of this former post.

(Thanks to Jamie Newell for the Rough Sailing photo from the Arlington-Washington Futurity. Check out Jamie's blog and her stellar photography at Smugmug.com, Flickr and Facebook. You can't miss her at a racetrack; she doubles as the turf-photography world's loveliest hat model.)

Maiden-breaker No. 25 is third in Puerto Rico

Perhaps it's unsurprising that so many of my 2010 juvenile sales tips were shipped overseas.

One of my goals was to seek bargains among the thousands of horses offered. And cheap horses tend to wind up at second-tier venues, even if they might have more talent than the price that was paid. (Then again, they might not.)

On Wednesday, the third of my horses to break maiden at Puerto Rico's Hipodromo Camarero (and 25th winner overall) did so in fair fashion, wiring a small field by covering five and a half furlongs in about 1:06 4/5.

Goldenrod Road (Montbrook-Special Report, by Notebook) acquitted himself well by finishing second, beaten less than a length, in an August debut at the allowance level. Dropped back among maidens, he was sent off as the 1/9 favorite, and ran like it. Bug boy Edwin Gonzalez basically stuck with a hand-ride until he saw C.A. Pizarro and Quality Dancer gaining in the final strides, then Gonzalez whacked the winner a couple of times to get a victory surge. Goldenrod Road won by a length and a quarter for Gonzalez, trainer Julio Diaz Jr., and owner Carlos Oyola. It was seven more lengths back to third-place Way to Bet.

I recommended Goldenrod Road as Hip 473 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. The bay colt brought only $23,000 from Oyola, causing me to scratch my head.

"Somebody call the Florida Bureau of Investigation, because this colt just got stolen," I wrote afterward.

Admittedly, I don't know how he vetted, and something about his action on the gallop-out in the Camarero video today caught my eye as perhaps imperfect. But as I noted during the sale, "he's by a sire who gets 20 percent juvenile winners, out of a mare who won at first asking at 2 and collected two stakes wins at 3, and the dam has three -- count 'em, three -- stakes-placed half-siblings who've earned a combined $300,000 and are by this very stallion." ... Goldenrod Road breezed a credible 21 4/5 quarter, to boot.

The dam has a full sister who earned $166,000 non-blacktype. The second dam also was a stakes winner at Calder. Third dam a multiple stakes-producer. Fourth dam a stakes winner and the granddam of $8.4 million-earning, two-time Japanese Horse of the Year SYMBOLI KRIS S.

"A swell prospect," I called this colt.

For Camarero, certainly, where he landed since nobody else wanted him very badly. And there, I think bigger things await him.

Considering it takes a few days for full charts to migrate from Puerto Rico to Equibase, I haven't updated this horse's record and earnings at the link below. I'll do that in the coming days. His win does make my sales picks 30-for-166 from all starts, a strike rate of 18.1 percent.

Goldenrod Road's victory starts out what could be a potent week for my sales picks in the maiden ranks, and potentially higher. Nine more sales-tip maidens are already scheduled to go to post on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, including pre-race favorites or second-favorites at Fairplex, Penn National and Philadelphia Park.

Thus far, the headliner for the weekend would be Rough Sailing, a $40K purchase identified as a top bargain prospect by me at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training. The Mizzen Mast colt broke his maiden drawing off despite a poor start and tough trip at a mile on grass at Arlington Park Aug. 7. On Saturday, he is nominated to try Polytrack for the first time against seven rivals in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. We know Rough Sailing can get the mile. Will his turf form translate to synthetic?

Check out the progress of all 187 sales tips (and a few horses whose prices or credentials I didn't like) in the list at this former post.

Long-distance Pick 3: Class of 2010 gets maiden-breakers from Woodbine, to Arlington, to Del Mar

Capping what was already a good weekend for my 2010 juvenile sales picks, on Sunday three horses from my list of 187 recommendations broke their maidens, two in their first starts and in impressive fashion.

The horses, two fillies and a colt, became the 11th, 12th and 13th to clear their maiden hurdle from my list of sales picks.

Sunday began with a smashing debut victory in Race 6 at Woodbine as the most expensive horse I tipped all winter and spring -- OBS April sales-topping Delightful Mary -- gunned from the far-outside post, forced the pace in a 10-horse race, and drew off to win by 3 3/4 lengths. The $500,000 daughter of Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy, was sent off as the favorite at slightly less than 2/1 odds. She delivered for her backers in real "racehorse time," covering six furlongs over Woodbine's synthetic surface in a rousing 1:09.57 under Corey Fraser.

I recommended the filly off her scalding 20 2/5 quarter at the OBS April under-tack show, and because of her status as a half-sister to Ohio Derby-G2 winner DELIGHTFUL KISS, who has surpassed $1 million in earnings, was G1-placed behind Quality Road in the Donn Handicap this year, and has also set a track record of 1:49 2/5 for a mile and an eighth in the All-American S.-G3 at Golden Gate Fields. Their dam didn't win until age 4, but at the time of the sale had produced four winners from five prior foals. Delightful Mary's second dam was G1-placed, and is also the granddam of G2 winner SHADOW CASTER.

Selling as Hip 949 at OBSAPR, Delightful Mary was part of the dispersal of Florida's historic Hobeau Farm. And while I didn't set out to tip sales-toppers, just racehorses, this one certainly looked the part of both.

She was "selling without reserve," I noted, "but you'll still have to break your piggy bank. And your spouse's. And your neighbor's."

Ultimately, it was trainer Mark Casse as agent for John Oxley who signed the half-million-dollar ticket. Casse was in position to see even more in Delightful Mary than did I.

"I watched (the breeze show) from over on the backside and I was there when she pulled up," Casse told Thoroughbred Times after the purchase. "As she was walking back, I walked beside her and she didn't take a deep breath. She was just remarkable how at ease she was with everything. That impressed me a lot."

While Delightful Mary has a long way to go in paying back a $500,000 purchase price, she got a $33,277 jump-start toward the black on Sunday. And her time for six furlongs as a firster suggests she could have more winning days ahead.

A short while later, roughly 500 miles southwest of Woodbine at Chicago's Arlington Park, a second debut horse from my 2010 sales tips likewise broke maiden impressively.

Rough Sailing, a colt by Mizzen Mast-Moussica, by Woodman, rated patiently in ninth place out of 10 going a mile on grass. Blocked in near the rail at the 3/16ths pole, jockey Michael Baze angled the chestnut colt six-wide in mid-stretch and thundered home. The 4/1 co-second-choice collared leader and 3/1 favorite Tiger Mike, then barreled past to win by a widening two lengths in 1:42.32 over soft turf.

Sold in May as Hip 250 at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md., the colt wasn't on my original short list of possibilities for a buyer who hired my services as a bloodstock advisor. I liked the horse in the breeze show -- his 35 2/5 for three furlongs, one of few to run the distance, certainly helped -- but I wasn't that wild about him on the page, mostly due to his dam's slow start as a producer. (On the plus side, she's a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle.)

Urged to give him a look while visiting the barn of consignor True South, I was sold on him as a prospect upon up-close examination. But I didn't expect him to stay in my buyer's price range, and he didn't, selling for $40,000 to Jack Smith Thoroughbreds, though that price was still below the sale average.

The colt, bred in Kentucky by Palides Investments N.V. Inc., was perhaps ideally suited to win under Sunday's conditions. Mizzen Mast can get an early winner (31 percent of his raced 2-year-olds), while the late Woodman, the dam-sire of Rough Sailing, was one of few U.S.-based sires whose get (and whose daughters' foals) established an average winning distance of more than a mile.

Rough Sailing collected $16,800 for the victory. He is trained by Michael Stidham.

Later, almost 2,100 miles away from Chicago (and 2,600 from Woodbine), at the West Coast's marquee summer meeting, my Class of 2010 collected one maiden win and came close to another at Del Mar.

In the first race on the card, Lake Believe (Ford Every Stream-Learn to Hope, by Moment of Hope) finished second behind Cactus Jane in a $40,000 maiden-claimer. It was the second placing in as many starts for the Louisiana-bred filly, who debuted with a show finish at Hollywood Park in June. She was a $37,000 purchase at OBS April, and has earned $9,720.

Five races later, the Class of 2010's third winner of the day emerged from the pack in the late-going, as Rigoletta and David Flores scored at 12/1 among the maiden special weight ranks for Thor-Bred Stable LLC and trainer Dan Hendricks. Rigoletta showed some early speed in the five and a half-furlong test, but was hung out five- and then four-wide on the turn. She finished strong in this, her second start, winning by a length and a quarter in 1:05.06.

Collecting $30,000 for the win, Rigoletta runs her lifetime earnings to $30,820.

The bay filly by Concerto sold as Hip 726 at OBS April, bringing $35,000 for consignor and breeder Ocala Stud. I recommended her in no small part because her full brother, gelding Evening Concerto, is a stakes-placed winner (now with more than $59,500 earned), and her dam was half to a 10-win, G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K) and LADY GIN ($227K).

"Pretty much a racehorse family," I wrote, "and this FL-bred breezed in racehorse time, 21-flat for a quarter."

The weekend got off to an early start on Thursday evening at Del Mar, when Gibson Home Run became the 10th of my 187 sales picks to break maiden, scoring in his first out. It improved on Saturday when my Class of 2010 notched its first stakes winner in GOURMET DINNER.

After the successful four days, my sales selections have won 14 of their 91 races (15.4 percent), with 12 places and 11 shows (40.7 percent OTB), for $463,288 in earnings, or $5,091 per start. One other horse has stamped her page with black type; Stopspendingmaria in July finished second in the Schuylerville S.-G3 at Saratoga.

Track the performance of my 187 selections here.