My only tip for the Breeders' Cup, but it's a doozy

With the Breeders' Cup finally upon us, I'm going to leave the heavy-duty handicapping other pros and bloggers.

I'm gonna make just one highly controversial recommendation.

Toss Quality Road in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I don't write that lightly, and certainly not with any joy. Quality Road's owner and breeder, Edward P. Evans, is one of the true gentlemen of the sport, and a Virginia icon, the state where some of the fondest of my early horse-racing connections (and my only two foals) happen to be. I briefly owned a stallion he bred, the late Silver Music (winner of the G2 Swaps Stakes). Folks associated with his operation have been kind enough to not only offer uncompensated advice on getting into (and getting through) this business, but to take in another older stallion I was placing, giving him a great home and third career as a teaser.

And I'm not rooting against Quality Road on Saturday. I don't do that, even when I have money on a race. I cheer for the horse(s) on my ticket, but never wish ill -- not a bad trip, not even a dull effort -- on the others in the race. They're magnificent animals who lay their lives on the line every time they race and while it's fun to bet 'em (and beat 'em), and intriguing to discuss their place in history (such as the frequent furor around Zenyatta), they all deserve our respect.

If I lose -- and oh, do I lose -- my first thought will usually be "how did I miss that?" Or at the very least: "Today was their day. Not mine."

(Sidebar: If you happen to have a calendar with the date marked on it for when my next "My Day" happens to be, please drop me a line. I've been waiting on that like a kid pining for Christmas.)

No, in this case, I think one of the more wildly talented horses we've seen in the past few years, is just not well-spotted to win this race. And I'm not sure there's anything his connections could do about it.

Some took a dimmer view of Quality Road's chances after he was assigned the 1-hole in the post-position draw. The rail at Churchill can be a tough place to start a race; ask Lookin At Lucky, who was beaten around and against the fence enough on the first trip by the stands in this year's Kentucky Derby to rob him of all chance.

But with fewer horses in the gate (12 vs. 20), the gate's positioning won't be quite so far to the inside and the rail won't "come up" on Quality Road as it does on a Derby starter as they break for a 10-furlong race from Churchill's chute. There also won't be quite the crush of horses trying to get down to the rail. And after all, if there's a horse in this Breeders' Cup Classic who is the speed of the speed if he wants to be, it's Quality Road. So I think he can actually play the 1-hole to his advantage, take the early lead, save ground all the way around while in front (others saving ground will have to shuffle back to do so) and hopefully control the pace to have gas left in the tank for the stretch.

But therein lies the trouble, in my opinion, for Quality Road. I'm not sure whether he's a gas-guzzler, like most muscle cars, or the tank just isn't quite big enough. But when it comes to getting 10 furlongs, I don't think he's the right horse.

From the perspective of just this race, Quality Road isn't likely to get an uncontested lead with a soft pace. The other two logical speed horses are drawn just to his outside -- No. 3 Haynesfield (12/1) and No. 4 First Dude (15/1) -- and have little to lose by just "going for it" from the gate. The 7, Musket Man, another horse I love but think doesn't fit at this distance, isn't the type to let the leaders back up into him too much without pushing them to go on with it. So the 5/1 Quality Road is likely to be hounded by 12/1, 15/1 and 20/1 long-shots who might be even higher in the odds by post-time.

That sets up the race for a stalker or a deep-closer, and apart from Quality Road, that's where the biggest talents of this Breeders' Cup field lie in wait. If she's on her game, expect the undefeated queen, Zenyatta (8/5), to be coming hard in the final two furlongs. I think Lookin At Lucky (6/1) might be the sharpest horse in the field right now and unlike his battering rail-trip in the Derby, can more casually find a spot from which to stalk or close from his position on the far outside. Churchill-loving Blame (9/2) and up-and-comer (but not quite gettin' there-er, sometimes by a whisker) Fly Down (15/1) can settle into good positions from their posts, 5 and 6. If he takes to the track when it's (likely) fast -- something I consider iffy -- turf standout Paddy O'Prado (15/1) could also be closing late as he did to pick up third in a sloppy Derby back in May.

So I'm confident that somebody's gonna pass Quality Road before the wire, as did Blame when they met in the nine-furlong Whitney a couple of months back. (And Blame did it even though Quality Road benefited from fractions of 24.41 and 48.06 that were far from suicidal.) In fact, I wouldn't be flabbergasted if Quality Road were passed in the stretch on Saturday by two horses. Or three. Or more.

Sealing the deal in my opinion is the fact that the undeniably gifted, brilliant, very fast racehorse that is Quality Road, is only a 50/50 proposition when asked to race beyond a mile. He has six lifetime starts at nine or 10 furlongs. He has won three of them, all at the shorter of the two distances, two in record time at Gulfstream (the 2010 Donn H.-G1 and 2009 Florida Derby-G1). But he's 0-for-2 at 10 panels.

Now look inside that raw, coin-toss-equivalent percentage and see the horses he defeated, and which horses managed to beat him in the losses.

The 9f wins, in reverse chronological order:

-- Sept. 4 this year, the Woodward S.-G1, over Mythical Power, Tranquil Manner, Convocation, Indian Dance, Arcodoro and a by-now-flightless Mine That Bird. Apart from Mine That Bird's walking on water in the 2009 Derby, there isn't even a Grade 2 win in that field. Mythical Power has won two G3s; Indian Dance an overnight stake at Laurel. The other three have never won a stakes race of any kind, anywhere. The Woodward, in fact, is Tranquil Manner's only lifetime placing in a stakes race.

-- This year's Donn Handicap in February, the second time Quality Road has set the Gulfstream Park track record for a mile and an eighth, this time at 1:47.49. (He also holds the Saratoga record for 6.5f, a blistering 1:13.45.) Second place was Dry Martini, a rugged war-horse, four-time G2 or G3 winner (including at 10f) and millionaire who has been among the closest to chase home Quality Road more than once. Third was Delightful Kiss, G2 winner of the Ohio Derby. A respectable trifecta. The rest of the field: Mambo Meister; Helsinki; Past the Point; Kiss the Kid; Duke of Mischief; Dubai Gold.

-- The 2009 Florida Derby, a 1:47.72 track record win over Dunkirk (two G1 placings, no stakes wins before he became another Unbridled-line to break and be retired after five races), Theregoesjojo (only horse ever to beat Quality Road at less than 9f, in a 7f Gulfstream allowance, but whose only stakes performance besides two losses to QR is a third at Prairie Meadows), Stately Character (listed winner at Calder, but with three wins from 27 starts), Sincero (listed win at Calder, 5-for-24 lifetime), Casey's On Call (lone stakes win, the Western Canada Handicap at Northlands Park), and Toby the Coal Man (2-for-19 lifetime, no blacktype).

The losses, in reverse chronological order:

-- Quality Road lost the mile and an eighth Whitney to Blame, with Musket Man in third (again, in defiance of his own distance limitations, but still not good enough to win). Haynesfield, who was more than a handful during the gate-loading, was fourth. The only other two horses in the sparse field were a hopeless (yet still just 12/1) Mine That Bird and terribly overmatched Jardim (30/1).

-- Last fall as a 3-year-old, Quality Road was second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 at a mile and a quarter to eventual 3-year-old champion Summer Bird. Hardly an embarrassing "beat." But the horses who finished behind? By finish order: 3. Tizway (now a G2 winner, then a non-winner of any stake); 4. Macho Again (gutted by his narrow loss to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward, later skipped the Breeders' Cup, on the downward spiral toward retirement); 5. Dry Martini; 6. Sette E Mezzo (only career stakes-placing, third in a G2); 7. Asiatic Boy (in the last race of what had been a competitive, albeit not-often-winning, graded-stakes career).

-- In August 2009 at Saratoga, Summer Bird handed Quality Road the first of his two "beats" in head-to-head match-ups, winning the Travers in 2:02.83 for 10 furlongs. Second that day was Hold Me Back at 10/1. Quality Road settled for third as the beaten favorite. The also-rans: Charitable Man; Warrior's Reward; Kensei; Our Edge.

I'm not wishing to disparage the horses who finished behind Quality Road in these races, or to offend their connections. Almost to a horse, they're stakes-performers (at some level, if not graded) and six- or (rarely) even seven-figure earners. They're far better than the average racehorse in this age.

But if you look at all those names and let the caliber of their stakes careers tumble around in your mind just a bit, it isn't a stretch to say that anytime there was a horse in a 9f/10f race who seemed to be anywhere in Quality Road's ballpark on talent and form, that horse managed to beat him. Nor is it off-base to add that of the names of those who finished behind him, you wouldn't put many, if any, on the marquee.

Frankly, Quality Road arguably hasn't faced as many top-shelf-talented horses in his first 12 starts combined as he'll face in one race on Saturday.

I think Quality Road is a monster. All the way out to nine furlongs. He might win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in a laugher, if he ran it. But I know that isn't the race his connections want ... nay, need ... to win.

Quality Road might make me look the fool and win the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday under John Velazquez, for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner/breeder Ned Evans, some of the most respected -- and respectable, and respectful -- people in this business. After all, I was dead-wrong last year when I suggested it might be best to root for Zenyatta in the Classic, but to bet against her.

But I've been taking a stand against him in personal discussions for awhile, based on the 10 furlongs. (That is, the last one furlong more than the first nine.) And I feel strongly enough about it to go public.

Good luck to all. And safe trip.

With all others fleeing Rachel, Zenyatta might fill void

Last week, it looked for all the world like a showdown between unbeaten 5-year-old mare Zenyatta and seemingly world-beating 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra might never happen.

Weeks ago, trainer John Shirreffs said Zenyatta would be staying in California all the way through the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. And this week, Jess Jackson of Stonestreet Stables, primary owner of Rachel Alexandra, said his filly would be skipping the Breeders' Cup rather than run on the "plastic" Pro-Ride surface in California.

Collision averted. Regrettably.

But on Saturday morning, even before Zenyatta carried 129 pounds in defending her title in Hollywood Park's Grade 1 Vanity Handicap and Rachel set stakes records for time and margin of victory in the Mother Goose S.-G1 at Belmont Park, Zenyatta's owner, Jerry Moss, said his desire for his mare to be named Horse of the Year (she lost out to Jackson's Curlin in 2008) might well send her on the road to hunt down the upstart Rachel.

"There's a good chance," that Zenyatta would leave California despite Shirreffs' earlier statements, Moss said in an interview during the program "Down the Stretch" on XM Satellite Radio, reported by The Daily Racing Form. "... If the two horses are ready and at the top of their form, I would very much like to see a race between the two of them."

Wouldn't we all?

Sending his senior Zenyatta out to meet Jackson's saucy sophomore is something Moss doesn't exactly have to do. I've written that I believe Rachel needs to beat Zenyatta -- not just rest her laurels on a gutsy Preakness win over males or even beat boys again in the Haskell or Travers -- if Jackson wants her to be Horse of the Year. It would be a weak link in Rachel's case for the title to leave a lifetime-unbeaten Zenyatta with a pair of Breeders' Cup victories on the table, unchallenged. No matter how good Rachel has looked -- and there isn't a superlative that fits her at the moment -- Zenyatta seemed to be in the position of strength so far as dictating where, when and whether a clash of the two female titans would take place.

Meanwhile Rachel's ridiculous run Saturday, while it added another Grade 1 victory and $270,000 earned to her resume, actually turned up the pressure a bit on Jackson. Only two other 3-year-old fillies showed up to race: Edward P. Evans' Malibu Prayer, who finished second beaten 19 1/4 lengths; and Godolphin's Flashing, who was third beaten roughly 32. The connections of Don't Forget Gil and Hopeful Image scratched them out Saturday morning due to "elevated temperatures."

Rachel Alexandra set records for the Mother Goose for time when run at 9 furlongs, 1:46.33 (besting Lakeway's 1:46.58 in 1994), and margin of victory (shattering the 13 1/2-length margin set in 1975 by the sublime Ruffian).

And that presents a conundrum for Jackson and Rachel's trainer, Steve Asmussen, when considering where Rachel goes next. Earlier in the week, while ruling out the Breeders' Cup this fall, Jackson listed several potential "next starts" for Rachel after the Mother Goose.

If she enters the Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 at Belmont on July 25 or the Aug. 22 Alabama S.-G1 at Saratoga -- each restricted to 3-year-old fillies -- either might become a walkover at the rate fillies are fleeing Rachel. She could face colts and geldings again in the Aug. 2 Haskell Invitational H.-G1 at Monmouth or the Aug. 29 Travers S.-G1 at Saratoga. Both would be much bigger challenges.

But management of one Mid-Atlantic track has to be drooling over the prospects that perhaps both top females will decide to muss-up their hair and lipstick in a donnybrook at their own Delaware Park on July 19. The Delaware Handicap is but a Grade 2 race, yet the purse this year has been set at $1 million. That's considerably more cash than either of the Grade 1 opportunities at Saratoga for a Zenyatta vs. Rachel Showdown, the $300,000 Go For Wand on Aug. 2 or the $400,000 Personal Ensign on Aug. 29.

Both girls have earned plenty of G1 blacktype. Beating the other one -- whether in a Grade 1 race or a 400-yard dash at Los Alamitos -- is just about all that matters now.

I think the Personal Ensign is least likely. For Zenyatta particularly, who could win and then go home (or lose and do the same to recuperate in time for the Breeders' Cup) I think the earlier a collision with Rachel, the better. Shirreffs has hinted he doesn't necessarily want Zenyatta going 10 furlongs, so asking her to cover an untried distance, on conventional dirt (over which she's only raced once), while also making the sporting gesture of shipping cross-country to where Rachel is training at The Spa, is one concession too many for the California connections.

With the Go For Wand being the least lucrative matchup (not that either camp is hurting for cash), the Delaware Handicap begins to look even more attractive. It's mile-and-a-sixteenth course is Zenyatta's most-frequently raced distance (six of her nine graded wins), and the slightly shorter distance and huge purse (meaning a hundred-grand for third) might help attract a few more mares to the party than the 9 furlongs of the Go For Wand, which went off with only six entries last year when champion Ginger Punch cast a long shadow over the entry box.

While I'm wanting to see Zenyatta vs. Rachel, I'm not asking for a one-on-one race. And a deep-closer like Zenyatta is going to want some pace to run at, which I think she'll more likely get with a few more mares in the mix and a shorter distance to travel. Plus, from Zenyatta's perspective, at least the Delaware Handicap would require Rachel to be vanned away from Saratoga, where she'll be training the next few months.

It makes me wonder, though, whether Saratoga might try to up the ante. "Back in the day," namely when tracks were trying to land the Seabiscuit-War Admiral match, bids came in from across the country. Might the New York Racing Association and Saratoga be able to scrounge up a title sponsor to contribute a huge chunk of change and bump the Go For Wand's purse to match Delaware's bankroll?

After all, a title sponsor for this race is going to get plenty of attention. If Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are nominated to the same race, all eyes will be on that venue from the moment the showdown is announced until at least a day or two after the dust has settled.

Foursome to face Rachel in Mother Goose

At least a fifth showed up.

Four other horses will face juggernaut Rachel Alexandra Saturday in the Mother Goose S.-G1 at Belmont Park. Initially it had appeared that perhaps only three other fillies would be entered, leaving a traditional paycheck-spot, fifth place, unfilled.

Getting the most attention is Edward P. Evans' Virginia-bred Malibu Prayer, although she's making the ultimate step-up in class. The filly took three tries to break maiden, but did so impressively, drawing off by 13 in a mile race at Aqueduct on April 17. She followed that with a seven and a quarter-length victory in a race at Philadelphia Park. But this will be her first try in stakes company -- and it's at the Grade 1 level.

Others who appear to be shooting for second place today (granted, a win is never impossible) include Godolphin Stable's Flashing, a Grade 3 winner at Aqueduct who is 4-for-5 lifetime for $202,560; Don't Forget Gil, winner of the Florida Oaks-G3; and Hopeful Image, who is 3-for-13 lifetime for over $100,000 and was third in a Grade 2 stakes race, but is yet to win from seven stakes tries.

The connections of half those four contenders will be celebrating their filly's first Grade 1 blacktype on Saturday evening. It's difficult to imagine any of them beating Rachel -- although in the racing world, stranger things have happened -- but at least now there should be trifecta wagering available -- although no bets will be taken to show.

Here's wishing a safe trip to all.

Meanwhile, if you've missed it, Rachel Alexandra now has her own sandbox ... whatever that means. The New York Racing Association has set up her own site for news and information, videos, "fun stuff" and a blog.

Who's afraid of big, bad Rachel? All but three.

The Daily Racing Form reports that the connections of only three fillies appear to have the fortitude to face juggernaut Rachel Alexandra Saturday in the Mother Goose S.-G1 at Belmont Park.

Justwhistledixie, scratched-out due to a bruised foot from the Kentucky Oaks that Rachel dominated on May 1 at Churchill Downs, won't be one of them. Her trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, said Monday that Saturday was too soon to bring his filly back after she was beaten by Gabby's Golden Gal as the 4/5 favorite in her return to the races June 7 in the Acorn S.-G1. Justwhistledixie will be pointed to the 7-furlong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8, instead.

But Acorn winner Gabby's Golden Gal won't be racing Rachel Saturday, either. Her trainer, Bob Baffert, said the filly bounced back well from her Acorn win (after which she suffered heat exhaustion), but would make her next start in the Prioress S.-G1 on July 4 instead.

"She's on the Indian Blessing route," said Baffert, invoking the name of his charge who won both the Prioress and Test last year.

So who does that leave?

Flashing, winner of the Nassau County S.-G3; Don't Forget Gil, winner of the Florida Oaks-G3; and Edward P. Evans' VA-bred Malibu Prayer, who has won her last two starts by a combined 20 1/4 lengths, but hardly against such competition.

I understand Rachel seems invincible among fillies. But last time I checked, second place in a $300,000 race would still pay in the vicinity of $75,000, third place around $30,000, fourth- and fifth-places are still paydays and you'd think the connections of at least four other fillies would be willing to race for the Grade 1 blacktype that is bestowed on both second and third.

Apparently not.

Certainly it looks like Rachel will crush these three. But the connections of two out of the three will be celebrating a healthy (and all-too-easy) addition of a Grade 1 placing to their fillies' page, provided everyone comes home safe and sound.

Charitable Man bears Virginia's banner in Belmont, belies state's breeding weakness

Horsepeople in the Old Dominion were thrilled this winter and early spring when a Virginia-bred seemed a serious threat to become the fifth horse born in the state to win the Kentucky Derby.

That horse was Florida Derby-winner Quality Road, but his Derby trail ended with a nagging quarter crack. Commendably, his connections, including breeder and owner Edward P. Evans, decided they were willing to wait on a good horse, and he's being slowly brought back around to racing form for a summer campaign.

Virginia enthusiasts are excited, then, that another VA-bred has stepped in at the end of the Triple Crown Trail: Charitable Man. Coming in off a win in the track's Peter Pan S.-G2, he has a real shot to upset Mine That Bird this afternoon in the Belmont Stakes.

But, both he and Quality Road are evidence of just how far Virginia's breeding game has slumped.

While Charitable Man is owned and campaigned by Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren, he, too, was born on Evans' expansive Spring Hill Farm near Casanova, Va. More and more, it seems, if you see a high-class Virginia-bred, it really ought to carry the "state tag" (EV), instead: Evans-bred.

This is not a knock on Mr. Evans. In fact, Virginia horse racing should be thanking God for "Ned" Evans. If it weren't for the love of his farm and his willingness to continue foaling mares there in spite of the presumed financial impracticality of the arrangement, Virginia thoroughbred breeding would have almost nothing. Evans keeps an estimated 90 mares at Spring Hill; the whole state of Virginia only foaled around 350 thoroughbreds in 2008.

Evans is the son of the late Thomas Mellon Evans, who owned Buckland Farm and was a noted horseman, breeding champion Pleasant Colony among many others. "Ned" Evans graduated with a degree in economics from Yale and an MBA from Havard, which pretty much punches a man's ticket in the business world. His chosen field was publishing, and while he maintains a residence in New York, as well, the 3,000-acre farm he bought many years ago in Virginia apparently still has a strong tug on his heartstrings.

That's apparent because Evans -- who is a member of the Jockey Club, owns an interest in numerous Kentucky stallions and could probably afford to buy a different farm or to board his mares anywhere -- keeps bringing them home to Spring Hill to live and to foal.

That likely isn't the most economical way to run a horse business, though I know others who take a stab at it, even smaller breeders. But ideally -- no, not ideally, rather necessarily -- if Virginia is going to save its thoroughbred breeding business, it needs a thriving, or at least surviving, stallion colony to do it.

Talk in Virginia Thoroughbred Association circles swirls around getting more off-track betting locations, particularly in Northern Virginia, which is a completely unserved population of around 3.5 million. Indeed, that is a big Step 1 to improving the lot of racing at Colonial Downs, and boosting the awards paid to breeders of winning foals; bonuses relied upon for ongoing income by those who make their living by selling a horse into racing hands. And the VTA makes a compelling case for the OTB expansion, including this pointed letter to Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.

But unless the OTB revenues are also funneled into a stallion-specific bonus program -- specifically a VA-sired stakes program at Colonial Downs -- there will still be no incentive to choose a Virginia-based stallion. Breeders will continue to be much better off shipping out of state to quality stallions and returning to foal in Virginia, as Mr. Evans has chosen.

The alarming statistics showing the demise of Virginia's stallion ranks just keep piling up.

As I've already reported, of the 22 horses entered in this weekend's pair of VA-bred stakes races at Colonial Downs, 17 were sired outside Virginia and none of them -- though they're just 3- and 4-year-olds -- were sired by a stallion still standing in Virginia.

I've noted that Virginia's stallion and foaling businesses have plummeted just within the past 20 years. The number of Virginia stallions in service has dropped from 154 studs serving 837 mares in 1991, to 41 stallions serving just 123 Virginia mares in 2008. I have predicted that the numbers will be worse again in 2009.

On opening night at Colonial (scratch-filled, with the turf races moved to the muddy dirt track), there were but 18 VA-breds entered out of 83 horses in eight races. Of those 18, just one was sired by a stallion still alive and known to be standing in Virginia: If Its Meant To Be, by One Tuff Oop. Four others were sired by a quartet of stallions that once were at Virginia Tech University's MARE Center, but that facility was giving away many of its mares earlier this year and shows little evidence that its stallions, such as the capable Fred Astaire, are still in service. The others sired in Virginia, not just born there, were by horses now moved to other states (such as the accomplished runner and sire Black Tie Affair, now in West Virginia) or that have since died.

The signs of Virginia's breeding demise are almost entirely negative, and undeniable.

Virginia thoroughbred farms have produced the third-largest number of Triple Crown race-winners in history. Charitable Man could add to that number today.

But, almost by himself, Ned Evans can't keep Virginia-breds on the map forever.