Whither Gio Ponti in Breeders' Cup?

It's a curious question. Why take a champion grass horse and run him off the turf in two straight Breeders' Cups?

But that might happen with Gio Ponti.

Discussion at Facebook prompted me to consider the options along with the connections of this horse, who seem to be mulling whether to go on grass (and from there, in the Mile or the 12-furlong Turf), or whether to run in the Breeders' Cup Classic like last year -- albeit this time on dirt at Churchill Downs rather than Pro-Ride synthetic at Santa Anita.

The connections have said their plans as of today are to cross-enter him in the Mile and the Classic. But I think it's worth a full discussion of the particulars on all three races anyway.

I have noticed comments in a Facebook discussion from those who project Gio Ponti will go in the mile (to face two-time defending champion Goldikova, Europe's best mare) because the distance of the other races is too far. This puzzles me a little, considering Gio Ponti has five graded-stakes wins at 10 furlongs (the distance of the Classic) and beyond. He hasn't won at a mile and a half -- the distance of the Breeders' Cup Turf. But he was only asked to run 12 furlongs once, and while he didn't win (upset by Interpatation), Gio Ponti still finished second. It isn't like he faded to seventh. With a pair of wins in the 11-furlong, Grade 1 Man O' War the past two seasons, I'm not sure why the extra eighth of the Breeders' Cup Turf would be a panel too far. (Though his sire, Tale of the Cat, was at his best sprinting; more on him later.)

The allure of the Breeders' Cup Classic on the main track is simple. Not only is it a $5 million race, but if Gio Ponti wins it, his stallion syndication value skyrockets.

Through the prism of residual value, the horse has accomplished virtually all he can on grass. He is a turf champion, and champion older male last year without running a step in his life on actual dirt (a relative rarity). His gutsy runner-up finish to Zenyatta on Pro-Ride at Santa Anita in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic helped seal the older male title. He's the likely U.S. turf champion again unless unseated by a horse like Paddy O'Prado, who could do so by upsetting in the B.C. Turf. (Which, according to this story, he won't be trying, as Donegal Racing opts for the Classic, as well.)

If Gio Ponti were to win the 12-furlong Breeders' Cup Turf -- a distance at which American races are rarely run -- it does nothing to spike his stud fee above the range of former turf champions now at stud like English Channel ($25,000) and Kitten's Joy ($40,000). Gio Ponti is already in that territory (probably more in English Channel's proximity) as a stallion prospect based on his prior work.

Even unseating Goldikova in the Mile likely does him no good as a syndication prospect. (I've seen Gio Ponti described as having "no chance" against Goldi. But she's lost six of 20 lifetime, so she isn't unbeatable. And if anyone is going to do it, a horse like Gio Ponti -- 11-for-22 lifetime, 18-for-22 at least second place, is as likely as any in the race to do it.)

But "figuring" at all in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the real-dirt main track at Churchill -- even third place -- gives his potential customers at stud the hope that they might get a dirt horse from their mating, especially depending on the pedigree and prior production of their mare.

So what are Gio Ponti's chances in the Classic?

For starters, how can it be easier to win in that race against unbeaten Zenyatta than it would be in the Mile against Goldikova? (Although we've established Gio Ponti wouldn't necessarily need to win, for his connections to heavily benefit financially.)

Beyond that, for any horse that has never raced over a given surface, it's just a roll of the dice.

Considering there is more money and more prestige on dirt in American racing, if trainer Christophe Clement and owner Castleton Lyons Farm really thought they had a legit main-track horse, I'm surprised they haven't tried him on dirt already. But perhaps they've just been trying not to mess with success, and with consecutive Breeders' Cups run on Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, there wasn't any need until now to consider dirt.

Gio Ponti is hardly bred against the dirt. His sire, Tale of the Cat, was a main-track runner, with his best victory coming in the Grade 2 King's Bishop, sprinting at Saratoga. And Gio Ponti's dam, Chipeta Springs (Alydar-Salt Spring, by Salt Marsh), has produced two other stakes horses in G2-placed stakes winner Bon Jovi Girl and 11-furlong G3 victor Fisher Pond, both of whom have done their running on dirt. Second dam Salt Spring was Grade 1 placed on both dirt and grass behind the likes of Princess Rooney and Fact Finder.

One source I read elsewhere online stated Gio Ponti carries a 399 Tomlinson rating for a wet track. (Half-brother Fisher Pond's win in the G3 Lawrence Realization was in the slop, as supporting evidence.) So if the track comes up a little bit (or a lot) "off" at Churchill on Breeders' Cup weekend, that could play into Gio Ponti's hands in a one-off try over a real, live (non-synthetic) main track.

While winning is always the primary objective, it would appear that from the perspective of residual value, the connections of Gio Ponti have little to gain by the horse winning the Breeders' Cup Mile or Turf (other than a spiffy trophy, worldwide acclaim and a pretty good purse). Meanwhile, even being beaten by any (but not all) of the likes of Zenyatta, Blame, Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky or whomever in the Classic could elevate his value -- provided Gio puts in the kind of gritty performance he offered in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, losing only a length to The Unbeaten One herself, on her home surface.

And even if he runs up the track, Gio Ponti has all the excuse he needs -- first time on dirt. Provided he comes out of the Classic in one piece, there's probably nothing to be lost, even by finishing last.

As his racing career comes to an end and a much lengthier and potentially far more lucrative stallion career beings, there appears to be little but up-side to running in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I'm starting to think that's where he'll go.

Still waiting for a super horse?

A discussion on a Yahoo forum I frequent -- dubbed tb_breeding_theory -- prompted some thinking on my part.

It was suggested by one person that the breeding and racing industry goes through a roughly 30-year cycle in which we keep producing equally well-bred horses, but none of them reaches "super horse" status.

I asked myself (and others), do we really go through a 30-year cycle between "super horses?"

And I decided that I don't think so, but it might depend on how we define "super horse."

It seems to me the drought is really in Triple Crown winners. But certainly that can't be the only measure of a "super horse." I'd say Spectacular Bid was one (26-for-30 lifetime), and he lost the Triple Crown.

I'm sure nobody needs this history lesson, but the American Triple Crown was won three times in the 1970s -- Secretariat in '73, Seattle Slew in '77, and Affirmed in '78). All are undeniably "super horses" who rarely lost, and certainly took down America's most notable title; "Triple Crown winner."

The Bid had his shot in 1979.

So by that measure, we'd be looking at -- about nowadays, really -- for the next "super horse" to arrive. If we're on a 30-year cycle.

But what has racing seen since? Were there no "super horses" in the interim?

Just looking at Kentucky Derby winners, we see these examples (dated by their Derby wins):

1985 -- Spend a Buck: Surely almost nobody would consider this colt by a relatively unheralded son of Buckpasser (Buckaroo) to be a "super horse." But then again, why not? He was 10-for-15 lifetime and never finished worse than third, earning more than $4.2 million. He was a Grade 1 winner at 2 and 3, and very well might have backed up his Derby win with victory in the Preakness had his connections not skipped Pimlico for Garden State Park and the Jersey Derby, where a $2 million bonus had been established for any horse who could win two earlier stakes races there (the Cherry Hill Mile April 6 and the Garden State Stakes April 20), plus the Kentucky and Jersey derbies. ... Spend a Buck followed the money. ... Champion 3-year-old colt and Horse of the Year, Spend a Buck's connections possibly kept him from going down in history as a "super horse" by choosing the $2 million bonus over winning the Preakness (a Churchill-Pimlico double many horses have made) and then at least trying the Belmont, where I'm not sure he would have beaten Creme Fraiche (the only gelding ever to win the race), but finishing second or third would've preserved his 100 percent OTB record lifetime.

1987 -- Alysheba: Maybe going 11-8-2 for 26 starts isn't a high enough win percentage to qualify for "super horse." But he was a G1 winner 10 times, took the Derby and Preakness at 3, the Breeders' Cup Classic at 4, earned $6.6 million, and was a champion three times; 3-year-old colt, older horse and Horse of the Year.

1989 -- Sunday Silence: A lock for "super horse" status had he not lost to Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes, this near-black son of Halo won nine of 14 (six G1s), never finished worse than second, and went on to sire the richest lifetime foal crop in world history.

That would seem to get us through the 1980s with at least several near-misses for "super horse" status.

The Derby winners were a relative dearth of super-horse candidates for several years after Sunday Silence -- Unbridled, Strike the Gold, Lil E. Tee, Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone. But even among those (who were still undeniably pretty good racehorses) emerged two major U.S. sires in Unbridled and Thunder Gulch.

Then in 1997 we saw the beginning of a run on near-Triple Crowns, that began with Silver Charm (12-for-24 lifetime, beaten three-quarters by Touch Gold in the Belmont to lose the Triple Crown). It would be hard to argue a 6-for-20 horse is a "super horse," but had Real Quiet been a nose quicker than Victory Gallop at Belmont, he'd have been a Triple Crown winner the next year and the drought would have been broken 12 years ago. Charismatic nearly did it just one year later, finishing third despite a broken leg. War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones gave us another three-year stretch from 2002-2004 where the first two legs were won and the Triple lost at Belmont; War Emblem stumbled at the start of his legend-defining race, Funny Cide was a credible third and Smarty Jones crushed everybody in his Belmont Stakes -- except Birdstone, who ran him down and won by about a length.

So that's six near-triples from 1997-2004. Had any of them broken through we'd be talking about half or less the Triple Crown drought we're presently suffering. And at least a couple of those horses (Silver Charm, definitely Smarty Jones) would be serious arguments for "super horse" status had they won a Belmont Stakes (and thus Triple Crown) they narrowly lost.

(Big Brown was our latest TC shot, but threw a stinker in the Belmont.)

I think Barbaro was a super horse, but regrettably we can't fully label him such. We'll never know how and why he went wrong in the Preakness, but had he run it the way he did the Derby, maybe not even a razor-sharp Bernardini would have been beating him that day. And how many rivals even would have shown up at Belmont three weeks later?

None of this takes into account horses like John Henry (39-for-86, 16 G1s, seven times champion, raced 1977-84), Cigar (19-for-33, 16 straight at one point), Zenyatta (17-for-17), Curlin (11-for-16, five G1s, $10.5 million), and Rachel Alexandra (13-for-18, three historic G1 wins vs. males), nor anyone overseas, most recently and notably Sea The Stars, who might have been the first English Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky (1970) had his connections not considered the accomplishment so unimportant as to not even try the St. Leger at 14 furlongs.

So I'd argue we've not suffered a dearth of "super horses" since the last U.S. Triple Crown was won in 1978. We've just had a lack of that one horse who could be a length (or sometimes less) faster on one day of his life (or be handled differently by his connections) to break the Triple Crown drought -- and thus to take our minds off the question, "How long has it been since we saw the last 'super horse?'"

Rachel is back, or seems to be; bring on Zen

After two of the tougher "beats" you'll ever see in consecutive starts, Rachel Alexandra bounced back today with an easy win in the Fleur de Lis H.-G2 at Churchill Downs.

The 3-year-old champion filly and Horse of the Year won by a geared-down 10 1/2 lengths, covering the mile and an eight over the main track in a pretty stout 1:48.78, and largely looked like her old self.

But then again, why shouldn't she? The race was her third off a long layoff, often a top angle for handicappers. And whom, exactly, did she face, sent off at prohibitive 1/10 odds? Not enough speed to wear her out; not enough of a closer to catch her.

And certainly not Zardana, who beat her in a hard-fought New Orleans Ladies Stakes that was Rachel's first effort in 2010.

Nor Unrivaled Belle, who ran her down at the wire in the April 30 La Troienne S.-G2 over the same Churchill strip.

Neither of whom managed to get mentioned in the Blood-Horse coverage of this victory.

I'm sure everyone's just glad to see that the old Rachel is back. Or seems to be.

But let's face it, only four other horses lined up to try Rachel in today's Fleur de Lis. The "competition" -- and I do use that word loosely -- consisted of pace-contesters Distinctive Dixie (18.5/1) and Jessica is Back (5.9/1), who finished second and third, plus Multipass (33.6/1) and Made for Magic (13.6/1), neither of whom was ever a factor.

Made for Magic is a Grade 2 winner in 2010, but over synthetic at Hollywood Park, and bettors clearly didn't think she was the top threat to unseat Rachel Alexandra on conventional dirt today, sending her off as a distant third choice.

Second-favored Jessica is Back certainly is a rugged mare -- 11-for-42 going in with nearly $550,000 earned, two minor stakes wins, and a G3-placing at Hawthorne. But thinking she could beat Rachel Alexandra today (even the Rachel who showed up in New Orleans) would have been far-fetched. Her odds of roughly 6/1 were a pipe dream.

Distinctive Dixie was 4-for-15 lifetime and had placed twice in the listed Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn, but has never won a black type race. And Multipass has a single stakes-placing at Remington Park in Oklahoma.

So the race was really for second place and two cracks at G2 blacktype for a mare's catalog page. Not that there's anything wrong with trying.

This field, in fact, bore passing resemblance to the one I watched undefeated and twice-champion older mare Zenyatta crush in a hand-ride on April 9 at Oaklawn in the Apple Blossom H.-G1. Still, that group was markedly better. On that day, second place went to Taptam, who has three prior minor stakes wins but earned her first graded blacktype in the G1 affair. The other three runners were all prior Grade 3 winners: Third-place Be Fair; Just Jenda; and War Echo.

So what does today's win by Rachel really mean?

No more stalling on a showdown between Rachel and Zenyatta, that's what.

Zen goes for her 17th straight lifetime win on Sunday in the Vanity H.-G1 at Hollywood Park. And it will be a test. She'll face Rachel-beater Zardana -- a fellow 6-year-old trained by her own conditioner, John Shirreffs -- and 7-for-12 lifetime St. Trinians, among the seven total entries in the 9-furlong event.

Regardless whether Zen wins on Sunday (I suspect she will, but anything can happen) the next time she runs (barring injuries to either female) should be in a race -- somewhere, darned-near anywhere -- against Rachel Alexandra.

It would appear the Horse of the Year is back near her form from last year. And Zenyatta's never been out of form in her life, unless she proves so on Sunday.

Find 'em a mutual spot, and run 'em.

Horse of the Year Rachel's best, and best for Rachel

How do you define "better off?"

That's an important question in light of the results from my recent poll, in which more than two-thirds of respondents (27 out of 40) said they believed that Rachel Alexandra is not "better off, a year after being bought and campaigned by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen."

I presume most readers who took a stand against Jackson and Asmussen believe that Rachel is not as healthy and fit a horse now as she was last year, or perhaps as she might have been with different handling. Certainly she's beatable now -- defeated twice in a row in desperately close finishes during her first two starts in 2010. And she had proved unbeatable in 2009, going 8-for-8.

I'm going to come down on the side of the minority here. For her utmost impact on racing history, for her value, and for her long-term legacy, I think Rachel Alexandra benefited from Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen.

What's certain in a situation like this is that nothing can be certain. Hindsight might be 20/20, but speculation (though I love engaging in it, too) usually isn't worth 20 cents.

There are, however, certain truisms of racing and horses. Not the least of these is that some horses are simply better (or at least more dominant among their peers) at age 2 or 3 than they ever will be after, while others are later-maturing.

And one axiom of life that's hard to ignore is this: You must strike while the iron is hot.

When Jackson's Stonestreet Stables acquired Rachel Alexandra after her scintillating, record-breaking victory in last year's Kentucky Oaks, there was little doubt he'd just bought the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

Bought had he bought the best horse?

That handy hindsight tells us probably not, since her unbeaten ways have not carried over into 2010, while Zenyatta continues to stand 17 hands tall at 16-0 lifetime. But by the end of last season, history shows, Jackson had bought the eventual Horse of the Year.

Following her crushing Oaks win, had Rachel stayed in the hands of her first trainer, Hal Wiggins, and her breeder, Dolphus Morrison (who doesn't believe in racing fillies against colts), she would have been pointed to the Black-Eyed Susan-G2 at Pimlico on Preakness Eve. Barring some freak incident or catastrophe, she'd have likely smashed a short field of sophomore fillies by the same sort of margin she'd posted in the Oaks. And while that win would have been another big step toward being champion 3-year-old filly, it would have done little toward earning her a Horse of the Year crown, and virtually nothing toward stamping her career as legendary.

Instead, Jackson and Asmussen entered her in the Preakness. There, Rachel did most of the work on the front end of a 9 1/2-furlong test, put away a talented speed horse in Big Drama (a 7-furlong record-setter) and still had the grit to hold off a gutsy Derby-showing Musket Man and the sharp and fast-closing Derby champ Mine That Bird to claim an historic win. She had beaten boys, she was the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness, and now talk quickly shifted toward whether Rachel Alexandra could become Horse of the Year.

Jackson and Asmussen shrewdly backed off the throttle for Rachel's next start. They entered her at Belmont in the Mother Goose, which drew up predictably short after almost nobody thought it wise to enter their girl against Super Girl. She romped in the Mother Goose, setting stakes records for time and margin, but clearly expended much less effort than had she been asked to face colts and geldings again on the heels of her Preakness win.

Already 6-for-6 on the season with three Grade 1 wins, Rachel was positioned to at least stake a claim to Horse of the Year by collecting two more noteworthy victories. She gathered those in the Haskell Invitational -- where she all but ran Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird and speedy sprinter Munnings off their feet in the slop -- and in September's Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, becoming the first female ever to win that race against older males; a race run since 1954.

By the finish line of her Woodward win, Rachel had done enough -- as the Eclipse voting months later bore out -- to be named Horse of the Year, despite not running in the Breeders' Cup and not facing Zenyatta, who scored an historic win of her own on that championship weekend as the first female ever to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The campaign clearly took a lot out of Rachel. She was cooped up (a debatable choice versus true turnout) for months before starting back to work. And unlike her championship season of 2009, she's proved unable to muster the gumption to stave off any and all challengers, getting nipped at the wire in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes by 6-year-old Zardana and nosed out of the La Troienne-G2 at Churchill by Unrivaled Belle.

But is Rachel worse? Isn't it possible that on these dates -- remember, Rachel's first two starts since a lengthy layoff -- a very fit older mare and a rising 4-year-old who is more lightly raced and at the top of her form cycle, were just a little bit better?

And even if Rachel is not her former self, who's to say she would have been anyway, even with less aggressive handling?

John Shirreffs has done a masterful job with two-time champion older female Zenyatta. She didn't race at all as a juvenile, and Shirreffs thereafter brought the giant mare along slowly, allowing her to grow into her body and her talent. As a result, she is as brilliant at age 6, if not more so, than she was during her first championship season at age 4.

But there's no guarantee that a softer handling of Rachel Alexandra at age 3 would have resulted in a 4-year-old filly to rival Zenyatta at 4. A more conservative course for Rachel at 3 could have still resulted in a 3-year-old filly title, but hardly Horse of the Year, and she still might not be any better at age 4 than she's proven so far to be.

And let's face it: Unlike Jerry and Ann Moss, who have chosen to bring Zenyatta back at age 6 for another season of racing (for which we should be cascading them with roses), there's almost no chance that Jess Jackson has any interest in racing Rachel at age 5, let alone 6. She'll be in the breeding shed next late-February or early March, being covered by Jackson's two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. So what was better for Rachel's future value as a broodmare (and the prospective prices of her foals)? Two really good seasons and one "lesser" championship among fillies and mares?

I think -- for her value (a practical concern in a sport that is a business) and for her legacy -- Rachel Alexandra was better served by one full-throttle season in which she shook the racing world and made history almost every time she ran, with the well-earned reward of 2009 Horse of the Year.

It's a trainer's job to recognize how and when to get the most out of his horse. Nobody could have gotten more out of Rachel Alexandra in 2009 than did Steve Asmussen; she was Horse of the Year.

Did that leave her "short" in 2010? It's impossible to say with any certainty; we can only be guessing. So that's no more than a definite maybe.

But it's safe to say that if Rachel Alexandra had been handled more conservatively last year, she'd only have been the champion 3-year-old filly, not Horse of the Year.

And this year, she probably still wouldn't be able to beat Zenyatta.

Rachel one year post-purchase: Better for it?

I launched this blog one year ago tomorrow with a lengthy pondering of the Rachel Alexandra purchase by Jess Jackson.

The brilliant 3-year-old filly had just completely left a field of her contemporaries in the Kentucky Oaks, leaving some to wonder whether she might have belonged in the Derby, instead. We would know within less than two weeks whether Rachel Alexandra "belonged" with the boys, as Jackson's camp, including trainer Steve Asmussen, pointed her toward the Preakness, instead of Pimlico's Black Eyed Susan, the traditional filly target. And her jockey, Calvin Borel, begged-off his Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to pilot his favored filly to victory in the Preakness, the first female to win the race since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Here we are a year later, and many steps have been run; races and championships won. Rachel was set on a course that her breeder and first owner, Dolphus Morrison, would never have taken; racing her three times against males. Morrison is among those owners (and trainers, and fans) who think that fillies belong in filly races, colts and geldings have "their" races, and never the twain shall meet.

Rachel proved up to the task in 2009. For Jackson and Asmussen, she rebounded from her gritty Preakness win with a cakewalk by record margin and time in a short-field running of the Mother Goose. Then she trounced a field of boys -- including Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird -- over a wet track in the Haskell Invitational, becoming only the second filly to win that summer classic. (The first was champion Serena's Song in 1995.) Last, she gutted out a front-running win in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, the first female ever to win that race, which has been run annually since 1954.

Though she skipped the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita -- owner Jackson had said for months he would not run his filly on the Pro-Ride synthetic course there, referring to such surfaces as "plastic" -- Rachel Alexandra's historic campaign was rewarded with Eclipse awards, not only as champion 3-year-old filly (which she was beyond doubt), but for Horse of the Year, to the chagrin of those who favored lifetime-unbeaten older mare Zenyatta.

The filly who had already set three records in 2009 for Morrison and his trainer and dear friend, Hall Wiggins -- that is, stakes-record times in the Golden Rod at Churchill and Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park, and a margin record in the Oaks -- went on for Jackson/Asmussen to set two records in the Mother Goose, and to win three indisputably historic victories vs. males. With Morrison and Wiggins it isn't an unreasonable assumption that Rachel would have been 3-year-old champion filly anyway. But with Jackson and Asmussen's aggressive handling, she became Horse of the Year.

So it would be difficult to argue that Rachel Alexandra was sold from a good situation into a lesser one.

Or would it?

After a grueling 3-year-old campaign, Rachel was laid-up for months without a work. She has come back to run tenaciously in a pair of stakes races -- and has lost them both by slim margins, the New Orleans Ladies to Zardana and most recently the La Troienne-G2 to Unrivaled Belle. Losing to an elder like Zardana in a comeback race after a long layoff is less surprising than being nipped at the wire by a fellow 4-year-old who'd made half as many lifetime starts and never won above the Grade 3 level.

Was Rachel Alexandra merely ahead of her age group as a 3-year-old, and now they've caught up? If so, she would hardly be the first horse to have been as good (especially by comparison) as she'd ever be at age 3 (or in some cases even at age 2), but only a "good" or even "average" horse at age 4 and beyond.

Or is she just not the same filly that she was in 2009? Has she "lost" something along the way? A step, or a little bit of heart? ... And if so, whose fault (if anyone's) is that? Should she have been handled more conservatively -- say, like a John Shirreffs might do, and did with Zenyatta at ages 3 and 4?

So on the anniversary eve of this blog, a poll: Rachel Alexandra, better off with Jackson and Asmussen?

Vote. And discuss in the comments thread, please. I can't wait to see what some of you think on this subject.

I'll tell you what I believe after the poll closes.

Meanwhile, I hope more than nine people vote, unlike my last Rachel poll. Geez, she gets beat once (now twice) and all the Rachel fans go into hiding?

Rachel going 0-for-2 in 2010?

With the draw of the $400,000 La Troienne S.-G2 on Friday's Kentucky Oaks undercard, and word that defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra will face just five foes, it's time for a poll, which I haven't undertaken in a good while.

Among the quintent to line up against Rachel Friday will be Zardana, the 6-year-old who handed a loss to 2009's most fabulous filly in her 2010 debut, the New Orleans Ladies Stakes. Zardana is trained by John Shirreffs, who also conditions "that other Z-girl," twice-champion older mare (and still undefeated) Zenyatta.

Can Zardana (or someone else) get one over on Rachel again, leaving her 0-for-2 in 2010? ... That's the poll.

Thinking deeper, if the Shirreffs barn can bit ... err, mare-slap ... Rachel twice in as many tries with their undoubtedly lesser runner, will Jess Jackson and company ever let their girl meet the other player in 2009's horse of the year debate?

Makin' it look easy

Granted, it was the first Grade 1 race I've ever witnessed in person. But Zenyatta on Friday afternoon at Oaklawn Park made winning the Apple Blossom Invitational look almost like she was facing optional claimers instead of stakes company.

The giant 6-year-old dark bay mare, a two-time champion older female, scared off all but four competitors from the race, including last year's Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. And as I stood on the apron near the finish line at Oaklawn Park, one of 44,973 who mostly came to see Zenyatta in the flesh, I joked that with the mare sitting at 1/9 on the board and certainly much more heavily bet in reality, the most interesting wager might be on how many lengths she would spot the field on the first time past the start-finish line of the mile and an eighth race.

The answer: About eight lengths.

Zenyatta's victory was her 16th consecutive victory in as many lifetime starts, and came only a day after the death of another unbeaten champion mare and favorite of mine, Personal Ensign. It was her second victory in the Apple Blossom, as she took the 2008 running in a much tougher field that included Brownie Points and Ginger Punch.

On this day, jockey Mike Smith shook the reins a couple of times at Zen in the stretch, but that was about it. With practically zero encouragement and seemingly without breaking a sweat, Zen swept five-wide on the far turn and came home a widening 4 1/2 lengths in front of Taptam, whose connections were visibly (and justifiably) thrilled with G1 blacktype and a $100,000 payday in a race that was for second place all along.

Home third was Be Fair, with Just Jenda fourth and War Echo rounding out the field.

In all, despite losing my shirt at the window, it was a pretty darned good day at the racetrack. (As for the wagering, I had trifectas blown up by a 16/1 horse in the third, and a 23.5/1 horse in the fifth, and a super screwed by a horse at about 11/1 in the sixth.)

Since I'm working on free McDonald's WiFi -- and they're starting to give me the evil eye because the lobby was supposed to have closed 21 minutes ago -- I might not know until I get back to North Carolina quite how all the pictures came out. Not even sure the one I've uploaded is a great one, as the laptop lacks Photoshop and its screen isn't as true as the big monitor on the G5 tower back at home. But it was my brush with the greatness that is Zenyatta, so here it is.

Oaklawn bound, from Eureka Springs

I haven't been quite so surprised and disappointed since, well, probably November, when I found out that I no longer had a job in the newspaper business.

Spending this weekend in Arkansas with family (and today at Oaklawn Park with Zenyatta and many thousands of her closest friends), I arrived Thursday after a long drive from North Carolina (including two slight detours, one planned and one not so slight) to find that I wouldn't be able to blog from my parents' vacation home at Holiday Island near Eureka Springs. Why? ... Because the house that's wired for everything, has no Internet service. They aren't really here often enough to use it, apparently. Well, not often enough that folks of their generation feel the need to use the Internet.

Being someone who finds it hard to go an hour without checking e-mail, I've been at a loss. I haven't written nor posted my second two lists from this week's Keeneland sale of 2-year-olds in training. But I will; it'll happen.

Right now, I need to traverse Arkansas' wonderful highway system -- twisting mountain roads in a state where apparently by law at least three times per trip you are required to find yourself behind a picking truck pulling a tractor, or a mobile home on a flatbed, or some other wide load.

That means the "fast" way from Eureka Springs to Hot Springs is 227 miles and 4 hours, 32 minutes. The "short" way is 198 miles and 4 hours, 54 minutes.

Considering it's now 9:37 a.m. and Race 1 is to go off at 1:30 p.m., I'm already behind.

(P.S. Filed from the McDonald's parking lot in Eureka Springs; thanks, Ronald, for the free WiFi.)

Team Rachel: A camp divided?

So the Apple Blossom showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta is off the board, leaving fans to wonder when the two will actually meet.

But there's an even bigger question in my mind right now.

Just how panicked -- and potentially divided -- is the Rachel Alexandra camp?

In the wake of Saturday's loss in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes by the reigning Horse of the Year, who was making her 2010 debut, comments by the principals give us more than a few hints at what they were thinking not only going into that race, but looking ahead to the now-scratched Oaklawn appearance.

Rachel's faithful rider, Calvin Borel, defended his filly as "a real racehorse" who didn't quit despite being headed in the stretch by eventual winner Zardana. "She needed the race, that's all."

And Rachel certainly did need the race. She'd been off since a Sept. 9 win against older colts and geldings in Saratoga's Woodward S.-G1. And while some discussion group friends of mine think she had plenty of work prior to her return, I disagree. Though she had seven published works after her four-and-a-half-month layoff, the first of those came on Jan. 31. I've had trainers tell me in the past that it usually takes two or even three months to bring a horse back to the starting gate off a significant layoff. Rachel started the New Orleans Ladies Stakes some 42 days after her first official work back at the track -- only six weeks, maybe a little bit short.

Trainer Steve Asmussen seems to know it.

"The filly's lacking fitness," he said immediately after the race. "It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it. ... She's not where I thought she was and if I had thought she'd get beat, she wouldn't run."

But she did run. And not all that terribly, posting a Beyer speed figure of 100, not exactly crappy for a race that was six months after her last start. And one wonders what might have happened had Borel let the girl run instead keeping her in a stranglehold in an apparent attempt to teach Rachel to rate.

"I wanted to let her run her race early, but they wanted me to wait," Borel said after the loss. "I wanted to go on past the speed horse (42/1 Fighter Wing) early. I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole."

Steve Haskin of The Blood-Horse details the many ways that Rachel seemed "not the same" on Saturday. And he astutely points out that had one or another of a very few things gone Rachel's way -- say, if Borel had let the champion have her head, or had Zardana not shipped east from California for the race -- the reigning Horse of the Year might well have won (in the latter case, quite handily) and the Apple Blossom would still be a "go."

But it isn't, and not because her trainer wrote off the upcoming race. Haskin notes that only an hour after Asmussen told reporters that Rachel had come out of Saturday's loss quite well, her principal owner, Jess Jackson, was scrapping the Oaklawn showdown.

I can't completely blame him, but it is starting to look like Jackson is training this horse, rather than letting his Eclipse champion trainer do the job.

Rachel's trainer initially said there was no way his filly could race against Zenyatta at Oaklawn because he didn't have time to work her up to a prep race and then get her back fit for an early-April Apple Blossom. Then Jackson finagled Oaklawn into setting a slightly later date for the Grade 1 race (not to mention bumping the purse tenfold, from $500,000 to $5 million if both Rachel and Zen race). And Asmussen was left with no choice but to get Rachel into a race by mid-March if he had any hope of turning her back on April 9.

Asmussen has said the filly isn't as fit as he'd like, though he reports she came out of her prep race well, apart from a gutsy and narrow loss. But literally minutes after Asmussen's statement on Rachel's post-race condition, Jackson nixes the Apple Blossom sooner, rather than later, and instead of allowing his trainer at least a few days to see whether the filly can bounce back in time to face Zenyatta for $5 million.

Borel laments being instructed to hold back his filly in a race that she might have run off with if not choked on the backstretch. And he doesn't say that "he" or "Steve" wanted Rachel rated at all costs, probably to teach her to save energy in a race against the late-kicking Zenyatta. Rather, Borel says "they" wanted the jockey to hold back his horse. If you think the second part of "they" is anyone other than Mr. Jackson, then I have a yearling who is guaranteed to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby, and shares are reasonably priced in the low six-figures.

Granted, Jess Jackson paid untold millions for this filly less than a year ago, off her smashing victory in early May's Kentucky Oaks. And the 2009 campaign plotted for her thereafter resulted in an undefeated season and honors as both top 3-year-old filly and Horse of the Year. He's certainly played a hands-on role throughout as is his right; it's his horse, and his money.

But Jackson less and less seems the type to just hire top professionals and trust them to do their jobs, without meddling. Asmussen is apologizing for not having the horse where she needed to be for a pair of races I'm not sure he really wanted her to run in the first place. And Borel sounds frustrated as the man in the irons, being told to rigidly employ a strategy that he clearly thinks got his filly beat. And they're all probably scrambling for answers.

Losing, even narrowly and with guts, has a way of exposing every tiny crack in a team's foundation. And the contrast between Rachel's and Zenyatta's connections becomes even more stark.

Way back last June, when Zenyatta's owner, Jerry Moss, got a little too bold in his statements about letting his unbeaten mare hunt down the upstart filly wherever, whenever, he soon backed down. I speculated that change of heart came after a discussion with his trainer, John Shirreffs, whose course for the horse was being speculatively altered. It wasn't long before those two were harmonizing again on their smash hit, "We're Breeders' Cup Bound."

I'm not sure Team Rachel has it so together.

And whether Rachel Alexandra has a great 2010 and any chance of beating Zenyatta -- should they ever meet -- depends on her humans getting back on the same page in the songbook.

Messin' with perfection

With a potential bout between title-holders approaching at Oaklawn Park on April 9, John Shirreffs -- who trains two-time champion older female Zenyatta -- has already knocked down Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, and he did it with a whole lot less mare.

Two-time champion older female Zenyatta on Saturday moved to within one win of tying a group of horses that include all-time greats Citation and Cigar with 16 consecutive victories by cruising to a 1 1/4-length victory in the Santa Margarita H.-G1 at Santa Anita. Meanwhile, 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra was summarily dethroned in the ungraded New Orleans Ladies Stakes by a determined, and Shirreffs-trained Zardana, who overtook her in the stretch.

Both champions were heavy favorites in their 2010 debuts, especially Rachel, who was sent off at a ridiculous 1/2o at Fair Grounds. But we really could have seen this coming.

Zenyatta, though briefly "retired," has in fact remained pretty consistently and impressively in training since her Breeders' Cup Classic win at Santa Anita in November. Meanwhile, Rachel took several months off after beating older males in September's Woodward S.-G1, a gutty effort that obviously took much out of her. And her conditioner, Steve Asmussen, said prior to the New Orleans Ladies' Stakes that his now 4-year-old filly wasn't 100 percent.

Rachel probably shouldn't have needed to be 100 percent to beat the group of four that she was presented this weekend at Fair Grounds. Zardana is a Grade 2 winner on synthetic, but was trying dirt for the first time in a good while and is simply no Zenyatta. And while rider Calvin Borel seemed to be discontent with the ride he was asked to give Rachel on Saturday -- "I wanted to let her run her race early, but they wanted me to wait" -- ultimately Rachel had a good trip and a pretty easy first six furlongs (1:12.86), and still couldn't hold on after taking the lead, battling but losing to Zardana in 1:43.55.

"My filly tried hard," said Borel. "She needed the race, that's all."

And with that, I couldn't agree more. Rachel really needed this race.

Minutes later Saturday, on the west coast, Zenyatta made her fans a bit nervous for a moment -- as is her wont -- but ultimately eased past the Santa Margarita field to win by more than a length without jockey Mike Smith ever striking her with the whip. It was as professional as any victory in her 15-race unbeaten career. And she looks as perfect as her lifetime record heading toward the potentially $5 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn, which Shirreffs says is Zen's target, Rachel or "no."

As for Rachel, the Apple Blossom might well be a "no."

"The filly's lacking fitness," said Asmussen after Rachel's defeat. "It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it. ... She's not where I thought she was and if I had thought she'd get beat, she wouldn't (have) run. You take her back, you evaluate her, you see how her mood is, her diet, how she goes back to the racetrack, how she breezes. No crystal ball could see that far ahead (to the Apple Blossom)."

Clearly Rachel wasn't perfect on Saturday, but her career never has been. Though she was flawless at 3, beating colts and geldings in three Grade 1 races and in every way deserving Horse of the Year honors, Rachel had been defeated three times as a 2-year-old. Now she's o-fer in one start at age 4 and, in her own trainer's words, clearly not where she needs to be less than a month away from that looming showdown with Zenyatta at Oaklawn.

And Asmussen knows full well that Rachel had better be close as she can to perfect before she goes messin' with perfection.

Rachel and Zen don't even merit 'The Ocho'

My blogging pal over at Odds on Favorite, Bill Yates, asks a valid question this week about a weekend that should be one of racing's biggest during the early season: Who is going to be watching?

Bill notes that although Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and two-time champion older female Zenyatta will both open their 2010 campaigns on Saturday, neither race will be televised on a mainstream network. You'll have to watch them on a racing-oriented network such as TVG or HRTV, or stream them live on your computer via NTRA.com. But the races will not air even on a network like one of the fifteen dozen ESPN offerings. (Not even on "The Ocho.")

And that indeed is a setback for the marketing of horse racing -- or maybe just a sign of how far horse racing marketing has already been set back.

In January I urged that racing should be riding the Rachel-Zen rivalry for all its worth during 2010. In this age, the average American only pays attention to horse racing for about five or six weeks each spring -- from the Kentucky Derby itself on the first Saturday of May, until the finish line of the Belmont Stakes in June. And if the same colt doesn't win both the Derby and Preakness, most of those casual fans (read "non-fans") drop out three weeks before the Belmont. But a real rivalry between proven older horses -- a filly and a mare, no less, for "girls" at present stand head and withers above the American racing world -- could perhaps draw more attention to our sport for a lengthier period than the racing game has seen in decades, from March all the way through the Breeders' Cup in the fall.

So much for that.

Racing's fan base and powers that be have seen these two starts coming for weeks; it's been well-publicized that Zenyatta was being pointed to the Santa Margarita-G1 and Rachel was prepping at Fair Grounds for its $200,000 -- but ungraded -- New Orleans Ladies Stakes. For a couple of weeks now, it has been apparent that these races are very likely to be the one prep that each champion gets before facing one another in the always-important, suddenly massive, $5 million Apple Blossom H.-G1 at Oaklawn Park on April 9. And not only are Rachel's and Zen's prep races on the same date, they're only minutes apart; the New Orleans Ladies Stakes has a 6:15 p.m. EST post time and the field of the Santa Margarita will break from the gates at 6:36 p.m. Eastern at Santa Anita.

How in the world can that be completely overlooked by mainstream sports networks?

Racing's cause in this case isn't helped in this case by the early simmering of March Madness. This is conference tournament weekend for many schools in Division 1 college basketball. During the crucial, one-hour window from 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, CBS, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU all will be showing one conference tournament or another. That programming isn't subject to change for horse racing.

On the other hand, ABC in some markets is showing the XTerra World Championship triathlon -- a tape-delayed event being condensed into one hour -- and in my neck of the woods, 6 to 7 p.m. Saturday is reserved for local news. Maybe something could have been worked out with that national network.

And on the widely received ESPN Classic? The 1997 NCAA women's regional final between Connecticut and Tennessee. (Pssssssst. ... Don't tell anybody, but the Lady Vols are gonna win, 91-81. Trust me on this one. Now run off to your local sports book and try to place that bet.)

Surely with a little friendly coercion ESPN could have been convinced to stall the tipoff time of a women's basketball game that has been over for 13 years in order to show some live "classic" television -- two famed female racehorses gearing up to face each other in what promises to be the showdown of the last 25 years in this sport.

As it is, on a weekend that includes Kentucky Derby preps such as the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes, and the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, two of the biggest prep races of 2010 -- Rachel and Zen, sharpening their daggers for April 9 at Oaklawn -- are going to go not just unwatched, but effectively unnoticed, all but invisible, across most of the sports-viewing world.

And since the Oaklawn showdown race is on a Friday, I'm already plenty worried that nobody outside of racing will be paying much attention to that one, either.

----------------------------------

P.S. My only (respectful) correction for Bill:

The Dalton Gang never squared off over smoking gun barrels with Wyatt Earp, though that legendary marshal and gunslinger did engage in plenty o' killin' in my home state of Kansas.

The Daltons met their fate on Oct. 5, 1892, at the hands of Marshal C.T. Connelly and the townspeople of my high school haunt, Coffeyville, Kan. Civilians spotted the gang splitting up to enter two banks -- the First National and the C.M. Condon Bank, the latter of which stands to this day as the local Chamber of Commerce office -- and the townsfolk armed themselves with guns secured at Isham's Hardware, a business still open in its same location on Union Street, nearly 120 years hence.

Connelly and three other locals, Lucius Baldwin, Charles Brown and George Cubine, died in the gunfight that erupted. Four gang members -- Bob and Grat Dalton, Bill Power and Dick Broadwell -- also were killed. Young Emmet Dalton was gravely wounded, but survived to do time in prison and then be released, moving to California, where he engaged in the real estate business, wrote tales of his exploits (some of them dubious) and played a role in the early days of motion pictures.

Runs like a girl: How Rachel, Zen, Proviso and others might be changing U.S. racing's gender bias

A thrilling 2009 racing season ended with a sharp debate among fans over whether 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra or 5-year-old mare Zenyatta -- who never faced each other during the season -- deserved to be named Horse of the Year.

That nod eventually went to Rachel at the Eclipse Awards. And since Zen's owners, Jerry and Ann Moss, decided to keep her in training instead of breeding her this spring, it looks as though we might get to see these two hook up early as April 9 in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. Hopefully both females will stay healthy all season, meet more than once, and the thrills of 2010 might rival those of '09.

But decades from now, when we look back on the campaigns staged by the connections of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in 2009, I wonder whether their seasons might be recognized as having a broader influence on the course of American racing.

That is, 2009 just might have been the year in which American thoroughbred trainers stopped being so scared of boys.

When breeder Dolphus Morrison sold Rachel Alexandra to Jess Jackson and company, shortly after her smashing win the Kentucky Oaks, Jackson and new trainer Steve Asmussen did something Morrison said he'd never do: Point the filly toward a race against colts. Morrison -- like many in the racing game -- believes that fillies and mares should only race against other females. Going up against males, so the thinking goes, is asking too much of a filly or mare, physically. But two weeks and a day after her record-setting margin in the Oaks, Rachel Alexandra most of the work on the front end and held on at the wire against Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird to beat colts and geldings in the Preakness Stakes, becoming the first filly to win that race since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Rachel, as any half-awake observer of horse racing knows, wasn't done facing boys after her historic Preakness score. She kicked around a short field of fillies in a boringly brilliant performance in the Mother Goose Stakes, then returned to the boys' club in the Haskell, running Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird right off his feet to win by 6 1/2 lengths over a sloppy track at Monmouth. In September, Rachel recorded her third victory against males -- this time older horses -- by becoming the first female ever to win the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.

Rachel Alexandra finished the year 8-for-8, three of those wins in Grade 1 races against males. And perhaps her season forced the hand of Zenyatta's connections -- the Mosses and trainer John Shirreffs. They opted to let their big, lifetime-unbeaten mare tackle males in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita last November, not just because Zen "fit" in the race, but to make a lasting impression on one of the sport's biggest days in an effort to help the reigning Eclipse champion older female add Horse of the Year to her credentials.

Zenyatta won the Classic with powerful style, becoming the first female ever to win that race in 26 runnings. It was enough to more than cement her place in history; just not quite enough to beat out Rachel for Horse of the Year.

What has happened since? Well, nothing for either of these females, other than training toward their 2010 campaigns. But a lot for some other fillies and mares.

On Saturday at Santa Anita, the Juddmonte Farms' mare Proviso, trained by Bill Mott, "closed desperately in the final sixteenth" to become the first female ever to win the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. The British-bred mare nosed out Grade 1 winning Brazilian-bred Fluke, ridden by Joe Talamo, to score the historic win. Multiple G2-winner Battle of Hastings was third in a solid field of males that, on this day, got beat by a girl. (And a second female, Tuscan Evening, was entered in the race, but scratched by conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer after she drew the far outside post.)

And, on the same card, British-born mare St Trinians actually was sent off as the 3-1 favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, a race that had never been won by a female in its 72-year history. Make that 73 years, as St Trinians suffered a difficult trip and finished sixth; Misremembered won from a full field of 14. But the fact that a mare was the post-time favorite in a race never before won by a female suggests that bettors believe the girls can compete.

I was actually a bit surprised that Zenyatta wasn't in the "Big Cap" Saturday. It looked like a field she could beat, but instead she is pointed toward the Grade 1 Santa Margarita for fillies and mares this coming weekend. Maybe Shirreffs thought that going right back up against males after a four-month layoff was too much to ask. And in the end, Misremembered's winning time of 2:00.20 was faster than Zenyatta's victorious time over the same track and distance in November's Classic, so to win, Zen would really have needed to bring her A-game.

Flashing back to '09, Rachel and Zen weren't the only females to take on, and defeat, male horses in big races. Ventura defeated males in the Woodbine Mile-G1 in Canada on Sept. 20. And 3-year-old Evita Argentina beat nine boys to win the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes a year ago in February.

It really shouldn't come as a shock to American fans that the best females can run and win among males at the highest levels of the game. In Europe and elsewhere, they do it all the time.

Many times champion turf mare Ouija Board during the earlier years of this 21st century defeated males in the Group 1 Prince of Wales in England, and the G1 Hong Kong Vase, as well. She placed or showed among the very best males in top races such as the Japan Cup (won by Deep Impact), Coronation Cup (Shirocco), Irish Champion Stakes (Dylan Thomas), and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Bago). And when Ouija Board lost the Hong Kong Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2006, the race was won not by a male, but by another female, South African-born Irridescence.

Then there's Australian champion Makybe Diva -- a racing female so good and so famed she became known simply as "The Mare." She defeated males at least a dozen times, including three consecutive renewals of the biggest race in Australia, the Group 1 Melbourne Cup, from 2003-05.

There's an adage in horse racing that an owner or trainer should keep himself among the best company, and his horse among the worst. And certainly taking on lesser challenges is the faster route to the winner's circle. But I have to believe that a big part of racing is the desire on the part of the connections to let your horse meet and beat the best competition it can.

Sure, most of the time fillies and mares will continue to run against other females. Just as a statebred race limits the competition, making it easier for a horse to win or place well and earn his keep, gender-restricted races are typically easier spots to run and win for a filly or mare, and every trainer and owner wants to win; needs to win in order to pay the bills.

Still, if the conditions fit and your filly is tight and right, there are boys to be beaten, everywhere from the maiden ranks all the way up to Grade 1 races. And I'd like to see more females given the chance.

Rachel-Zen Apple Blossom showdown blooms anew

I'm scrambling on another couple of fronts this afternoon and might have to comment more later, but The Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman reports that the $5 million Apple Blossom Handicap match at Oaklawn Park between Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and champion older female Zenyatta is back on.

Oaklawn apparently has agreed to move the race back six days, easing the time window between when Rachel might be able to run a mid-March prep and the date she'd have to face Zen in the Apple Blossom. Rachel's trainer, Steve Asmussen, had lamented the likely three-week turnaround between races, saying he would prefer four weeks.

Leave it to Charles Cella and Oaklawn to make a bid this expensive and serious for the race of the 21st Century. Oaklawn of course offered the $5 million bonus that was cashed-in by Smarty Jones in 2004, for sweeping the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby on his way to also winning the Kentucky Derby.

"I've never had so much trouble giving $5 million away," Cella told Privman for the DRF.

But, Cella says he has a firm commitment from both camps to pit Rachel vs. Zen on Friday, April 9. That's the afternoon prior to the Arkansas Derby, and frankly could be a racing weekend to rival the Oaks-Derby double at Churchill a few weeks later.

So Rachel 'ducks' first

Unfair headline aside, the connections of 2009 Eclipse Award Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra have bowed out of a potential showdown with two-time champion female Zenyatta in the April 3 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

Oaklawn had offered a $5 million purse for the Grade 1 race -- and planned to extend the 8.5-furlong test to 9 furlongs for this year only -- provided both champion females would be entered. But Rachel's principal owner Jess Jackson, upon advice from trainer Steve Asmussen, said on Wednesday that just isn't going to happen.

Frankly, they have a good reason. Rachel Alexandra only recently began working again at Fair Grounds after sitting idle for several months following her historic Woodward Stakes win over older males in early September at Saratoga. Meanwhile, Zenyatta pretty much hasn't missed a beat since winning the Breeders' Cup Classic over males in November at Santa Anita. While retirement allegedly was in the offing, Zen kept working, and from her drills she seems sharp enough to walk onto the track and beat just about anybody, tomorrow.

So, with the date being Feb. 10, an April 3 showdown of such magnitude would clearly be in Zenyatta's favor. Rachel will need a race or two before she could be expected to run her best, and frankly, on her schedule, April 3 might be her first race back. Surely Zenyatta will have run at least once in California (and probably crushed a field) before then.

What next? Jackson says he's working with the NTRA on devising a three-race challenge for the top females, that would "to rival the Triple Crown." Unless some colt is poised to actually win that crown on Belmont Stakes day, it's safe to say that Jackson's statement is not hyperbolic. All racing eyes -- and many outside the sport -- will be on Rachel and Zen when they finally do hook up on a racetrack somewhere.

Still, I'm disappointed it won't be at Oaklawn, because I intended to be there as my next stop on the Unexpected Vacation Circuit.

Racing should ride Rachel vs. Zenyatta

The year ahead might be the best in recent history for horse racing fans. Potentially even a rejuvenation of the game in the eyes of the sports media and the general public.

We have a rivalry. Potentially more ardent, bitter and intriguing than it was two days ago.

Rachel Alexandra's crowning Monday night as the Eclipse Award winner for Horse of the Year has practically set ablaze the hair of some supporters of her chief competition for the award -- unbeaten mare Zenyatta.

One of the most incredible fillies of the last 50 years -- a filly who went 8-for-8 with five Grade 1 wins including three against males -- is being disparaged as undeserving of recognition as Horse of the Year.

Fairly knowledgeable horse people and race fans in a Yahoo discussion group I frequent have complained that the voting came down in Rachel's favor because of some unnamed "perks" voters allegedly receive. ... Don't ask me what those "perks" might be.

"RA being HOY is a joke, she doesn't deserve to stand in Zenyatta's shadow," another familiar contributor suggested. "She barely beat the males that Z destroyed in the Classic."

Wait ... what?

Exactly two horses were common opponents between Rachel's season and Zenyatta's scintillating Breeders' Cup Classic win: Summer Bird and Mine That Bird.

Rachel smashed Summer Bird by six lengths in the Haskell Invitational. Zenyatta beat him by three in the Classic.

Granted, Zenyatta trounced Mine That Bird in the Breeders' Cup, while Rachel barely held him off as he was closing fast in the Preakness way back in May. But nobody can argue a case for Mine That Bird getting better throughout 2009. Rachel beat the Kentucky Derby winner at the peak of his form, in a race that hadn't been won by a filly since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Still, the same Yahoo group member who made the (debunked) comparison insists, "RA is a very nice filly but not HOY in any year."

Even Zenyatta's owner, Jerry Moss, got involved a little bit, lamenting that Rachel Alexandra won despite running in mostly "restricted races" throughout 2009.

Well they weren't restricted to New York-breds, Jerry. Sure, Rachel received weight allowances, being a 3-year-old running against males and particularly against older horses in the Woodward. But those are the rules of racing; neither Rachel nor her connections write the rules, they just race under them.

Meanwhile, Zenyatta's 2009 schedule was about as "restricted" as one could get. Knowing that the Breeders' Cup would be run over synthetic at Santa Anita (again), Moss and trainer John Shirreffs essentially stayed home all year. That left Zenyatta -- an absolute synthetic-track monster -- looming dark and foreboding over the California circuit, where she was already 8-for-8 lifetime, and a dominating 8-for-8. Aside from stablemate Life Is Sweet (who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic), there just wasn't much talent running against Z this year in her four starts prior to the Classic.

And the one time Zenyatta ventured outside California in 2009 -- for a scheduled start in the Louisville Distaff at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend, a race in which she was 4/5 on the morning line -- Shirreffs scratched her when rain soaked the track.

Regardless whether they've ever raced, which clearly they haven't, many Zenyatta supporters are absolutely convinced their mare would win any meeting of the pair, regardless.

"I did not want the two to meet because of their very different racing styles," wrote one contributor to the Yahoo group I frequent. That is, Rachel is a front-runner and Zen a closer. "But after Zenyatta's performance in the BC Classic ... I know that Zenyatta can and will beat Rachel ... and then the fans will just say, well of course, Zenyatta is older."

Anyone who has watched more than a few horse races should know that isn't such a sure bet. The outcome of any race depends on too many factors -- track conditions, distance, other horses in the field and how the race sets up -- to consider either runner a lock in a race between two dominant females.

If Rachel is relatively loose on the lead, she will be hard to pass -- even, I predict, at a 10-furlong distance that many of her detractors believe her connections are avoiding like the plague. The filly will fight.

And in a big group, with traffic problems or even merely moving over a traditional dirt track the likes of which she's rarely seen, Zenyatta might run into trouble she can't overcome, or simply not fire her best shot.

Anyone who is completely convinced that Zenyatta will beat Rachel should they meet this year should review her Preakness and take pause.

Mine That Bird, a devout closer who was then at the top of his game, could not reel her in even though she broke from the 13-hole (from which no prior Preakness winner had ever started) and did most of the work on the front end, pressed by a very fleet colt in Big Drama.

A number of observers, including retired jockey Jerry Bailey, have suggested with some evidence that Mine That Bird's chances in the Preakness were compromised by a bad ride from Mike Smith, who didn't give him the best trip, particularly not the shortest route through the inevitable traffic on the turn for home. ... That's the same Mike Smith who rides Zenyatta as she closes from the clouds.

And Rachel would relish rain on race-day, while Shirreffs would probably scratch Zenyatta or else have to run her even though the conditions would be advantage-Rachel.

To be sure, Rachel has her defenders, as well. My hand is raised. And a TVG network message board thread is titled "Moss is a pitiful loser" -- filled with Rachel and Zenyatta fans engaging in a sharp exchange. (Plus a few level heads.)

And it's beautiful.

Controversy spurs interest. And for once, a nationwide racing controversy doesn't involve cheating or drugs (though some Zen supporters praise John Shirreffs as a cleaner trainer than Rachel's handler Steve Asmussen) or broken-down horses being put to death.

It's a quarrel of epic proportions and a squabble that digs deep to the very roots of why mankind started racing horses against one another in the first place.

Whose horse is faster?

With Zenyatta confirmed to be in training rather than destined for an immediate trip to the breeding shed, a potentially stellar 2010 awaits.

I expect her to run a prep -- maybe the 9-furlong, Grade 2 Strub Stakes against males on Feb. 6. Then Zen would turn up next in the Santa Anita Handicap, where she'll almost certainly be sent off at a short price and probably run her lifetime record to 16-for-16 (assuming a prep win) with a stirring performance reminiscent of her Classic win, becoming in the process the first female to win that historic race.

Rachel, meanwhile, is still on the shelf after her own historic Woodward win. But (unless there's a physical issue of which we're unaware) she should become visible again on a training track fairly soon.

For the good of horse racing, these ladies should meet -- repeatedly, at different distances and venues -- during 2010.

Rachel will need to get back into training and have a prep or two before these arch-rivals-who-have-never-met, first meet. After all, Zenyatta appears to be sharp right now, today, and destined to race at least by the Big 'Cap in March if not before. I don't expect to see Rachel in a race at all until April, maybe at best.

But I hope that the summer and fall leading up the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in November will give us Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta going head-to-head two or three times. Preferably at least once against males, to hopefully make sure the field is of a good size and decent quality, with some speed to test Rachel and other closers to launch their bid with Zen.

With a long season of good luck, good form and good health for both females, the 2010 Breeders' Cup could be a "rubber match" of sorts, and the deciding factor in the Horse of the Year voting that the Rachel-less B.C. failed to be in 2009.

And for once -- with these two amazing females carrying horse racing's colors -- perhaps our game will be the talk of the sports media throughout the year, and not just from the first Saturday in May until the final strides of the Belmont Stakes a few short weeks later.

Classic aside, I'd still vote Rachel

If the AP's Female Athlete of the Year voting is any indication seems that Zenyatta -- historic winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic -- is gaining the edge over flashy filly Rachel Alexandra in the pre-Eclipse handicapping for Horse of the Year.

Zenyatta finished second to Serena Williams in that balloting. Rachel Alexandra was a distant seventh.

But for my money, I'd still take Rachel. Here's why.

Zenyatta -- while undefeated lifetime over 14 races -- was the winner of exactly one truly challenging race in 2009; said Breeders' Cup Classic.

Yes, that race was a great effort amid a global and talented field. And it was an historic victory; Zenyatta was the first female ever to win in the Classic.

But it was one race. Run over a track on her "home" circuit in Southern California. Which Zenyatta never left during the course of 2009. And while the field was stacked with some very nice horses, frankly a lot of them were turf horses (Gio Ponti finished second), including Euros whom, frankly, nobody had any real idea whether they'd perform well with the long ship, the comparative heat of Southern California, and the synthetic surface.

For such a seemingly talented field, the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic wasn't exactly a group from which any horse could emerge victorious. In fact, Zenyatta was not only favored at a little less than 3/1, but only Rip Van Winkle (at a little over 3/1) was anywhere close in the odds.

Final order of finish, with odds (rounded) and comments:
1. Zenyatta, 3/1*, an unbeaten synthetic monster racing at home.
2. Gio Ponti, 12/1, turf horse.
3. Twice Over(GB), 9/1, turf horse.
4. Summer Bird, 7/1, 3-year-old with no prior synthetic form.
5. Colonel John, 12/1, a synthetic G1 winner in Southern California.
6. Richard's Kid, 11/1, another synthetic, G1, SoCal male.
7. Awesome Gem, 52/1.
8. Regal Ransom, 39/1.
9. Mine That Bird, 14/1, hadn't won since the Kentucky Derby.
10. Rip Van Winkle(IRE), 3/1, quit early, a turf horse with no prior synthetic form.
11. Einstein(BRZ), 10/1, a horse I liked here due to prior synthetic form, but who did nothing.
12. Girolamo, 25/1, how the hell was he only 25/1?

Now, by my count, from that group of also-rans, there are exactly three Grade 1 synthetic victories: One each for Colonel John (Santa Anita Derby at 3), Richard's Kid (2009 Pacific Classic) and Einstein (2009 Santa Anita Handicap).

Zenyatta had six G1 synthetic wins (granted, among females) going into the race.

I wrote a blog just before race-day that Zenyatta might be a bet-against in the Classic, but based solely on synthetic form -- and why should we have looked anywhere else? -- I don't know what in the world I was thinking. She was sent off as the favorite and probably should've been 3/5 instead of 3/1.

Meanwhile, much was asked in 2009 of Rachel Alexandra.

After she crushed 3-year-old fillies by record lengths in the Kentucky Oaks -- a race from which some handicappers predicted a bounce -- she was sold to Jess Jackson and wheeled back for the Preakness, against colts. There (granted, with a weight break) she was the brave winner, holding off a late charge from the Derby victor in Mine That Bird, despite having done almost all the work on the front end. Winning the Preakness was something no filly had done since Nellie Morse in 1924.

After beating the colts at Pimlico, Rachel returned to the 3-year-old filly ranks to set another record-lengths mark, this time in winning the Mother Goose Stakes. The ease with which she crushed her own age and gender in the Oaks and Mother Goose was simply breathtaking.

So, with seemingly no more challenges facing her in the 3-year-old filly ranks, Jackson and Co. sent her back again to face boys her own age. Her next race was a fleet finish over a sloppy track in the Haskell, splashing home in 1:47.21 for 9 furlongs. In that race, she crushed Summer Bird -- who was later sent off as third-favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- by six lengths.

Some of Rachel's detractors imply that her connections ducked the distance by skipping the Travers Stakes in order to run in the Woodward Stakes at 9 furlongs.

But, frankly, what was a girl to do?

If Rachel had gone to the Travers and had beaten 3-year-old colts again, so fricking what? And if she was sent somewhere, anywhere, to run 10 furlongs and beat older fillies and mares not named Zenyatta, the yawns from race fans and Eclipse voters alike would have been even bigger.

So Jess Jackson and Co. pointed her to the Woodward Stakes, a race -- like the Breeders' Cup Classic and with a much longer history -- that had never been won by a female.

Yes, Rachel got a weight break in the Woodward. Yes, Calvin Borel flogged her down the stretch. Yes, she barely won that race. ... But she won.

And since the world seems so fond of touting the field-strength for the Breeders' Cup Classic -- a race, as noted, with exactly three G1 wins over synthetic among the 11 horses that faced Zenyatta -- let's weigh the strength of Rachel's six opponents in that Woodward.

Post, horse, comments:
1. Da' Tara, surprise winner of the 2008 Belmont Stakes, but that's a Grade 1 win on dirt.
2. Bullsbay, won 2009 Whitney H.-G1.
3. Rachel Alexandra.
4. Cool Coal Man, G2 winner on dirt.
5. Macho Again, won 2009 Stephen Foster H.-G1.
6. It's a Bird, two G3 wins on dirt and DQ'ed from first in the Oaklawn H.-G2.
7. Asiatic Boy, four group-level wins in Dubai, G1-placed on three continents.
8. Past the Point, second in the Woodward S.-G1, a year prior.

So, Zenyatta faced 11 opponents with three lifetime G1 wins on the "surface of the day," synthetic. Rachel in the Woodward faced six opponents with an equal number of prior G1 wins, three, on the surface over which they'd be racing that day, dirt. The Woodward field also had a four-times GSW and three-times G1-placed horse in Asiatic Boy, a G2 winner, a multiple G3 winner, and the defending runner-up in this very race.

Was the Woodward really all that "light" a field? And the Breeders' Cup Classic -- in hindsight particularly, noting how the horses actually performed -- really one of the deepest Cup fields ever, as some have suggested?

I think the answer to both questions is, "no."

Throughout 2009, consistently more was asked of Rachel Alexandra than of Zenyatta. The 3-year-old filly recorded historic wins against males in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, and record-shattering victories against her own age and gender in the Kentucky Oaks and the Mother Goose. Zenyatta meanwhile beat up on a talented stablemate in Life is Sweet, and otherwise the same cast of SoCal distaff characters, throughout a conservatively (and brilliantly) managed season -- until owner Jerry Moss and trainer John Shirreffs took their one big shot of the year, and hit the bulls-eye in the Classic.

I'm not being dismissive of Zenyatta's accomplishments; 14-for-14 lifetime is a big deal (although the first nine shouldn't count toward 2009 HOTY voting) and being the first mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic -- in exhilarating fashion, no less -- certainly is memorable.

But Zenyatta went 5-for-5 in 2009 with one signature win. Rachel Alexandra went 8-for-8 with at least five victories that were noteworthy, either for their ease (Oaks, Mother Goose) or for beating boys in Grade 1 races (Preakness, Haskell, Woodward).

Were I voting -- and I'm not -- Rachel Alexandra would receive my ballot.

That doesn't mean Zenyatta is undeserving. And I think it's more likely that she'll win Horse of the Year.

But I truly don't believe Zenyatta did as much over the course of the year to earn it.