My only tip for the Breeders' Cup, but it's a doozy

With the Breeders' Cup finally upon us, I'm going to leave the heavy-duty handicapping other pros and bloggers.

I'm gonna make just one highly controversial recommendation.

Toss Quality Road in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I don't write that lightly, and certainly not with any joy. Quality Road's owner and breeder, Edward P. Evans, is one of the true gentlemen of the sport, and a Virginia icon, the state where some of the fondest of my early horse-racing connections (and my only two foals) happen to be. I briefly owned a stallion he bred, the late Silver Music (winner of the G2 Swaps Stakes). Folks associated with his operation have been kind enough to not only offer uncompensated advice on getting into (and getting through) this business, but to take in another older stallion I was placing, giving him a great home and third career as a teaser.

And I'm not rooting against Quality Road on Saturday. I don't do that, even when I have money on a race. I cheer for the horse(s) on my ticket, but never wish ill -- not a bad trip, not even a dull effort -- on the others in the race. They're magnificent animals who lay their lives on the line every time they race and while it's fun to bet 'em (and beat 'em), and intriguing to discuss their place in history (such as the frequent furor around Zenyatta), they all deserve our respect.

If I lose -- and oh, do I lose -- my first thought will usually be "how did I miss that?" Or at the very least: "Today was their day. Not mine."

(Sidebar: If you happen to have a calendar with the date marked on it for when my next "My Day" happens to be, please drop me a line. I've been waiting on that like a kid pining for Christmas.)

No, in this case, I think one of the more wildly talented horses we've seen in the past few years, is just not well-spotted to win this race. And I'm not sure there's anything his connections could do about it.

Some took a dimmer view of Quality Road's chances after he was assigned the 1-hole in the post-position draw. The rail at Churchill can be a tough place to start a race; ask Lookin At Lucky, who was beaten around and against the fence enough on the first trip by the stands in this year's Kentucky Derby to rob him of all chance.

But with fewer horses in the gate (12 vs. 20), the gate's positioning won't be quite so far to the inside and the rail won't "come up" on Quality Road as it does on a Derby starter as they break for a 10-furlong race from Churchill's chute. There also won't be quite the crush of horses trying to get down to the rail. And after all, if there's a horse in this Breeders' Cup Classic who is the speed of the speed if he wants to be, it's Quality Road. So I think he can actually play the 1-hole to his advantage, take the early lead, save ground all the way around while in front (others saving ground will have to shuffle back to do so) and hopefully control the pace to have gas left in the tank for the stretch.

But therein lies the trouble, in my opinion, for Quality Road. I'm not sure whether he's a gas-guzzler, like most muscle cars, or the tank just isn't quite big enough. But when it comes to getting 10 furlongs, I don't think he's the right horse.

From the perspective of just this race, Quality Road isn't likely to get an uncontested lead with a soft pace. The other two logical speed horses are drawn just to his outside -- No. 3 Haynesfield (12/1) and No. 4 First Dude (15/1) -- and have little to lose by just "going for it" from the gate. The 7, Musket Man, another horse I love but think doesn't fit at this distance, isn't the type to let the leaders back up into him too much without pushing them to go on with it. So the 5/1 Quality Road is likely to be hounded by 12/1, 15/1 and 20/1 long-shots who might be even higher in the odds by post-time.

That sets up the race for a stalker or a deep-closer, and apart from Quality Road, that's where the biggest talents of this Breeders' Cup field lie in wait. If she's on her game, expect the undefeated queen, Zenyatta (8/5), to be coming hard in the final two furlongs. I think Lookin At Lucky (6/1) might be the sharpest horse in the field right now and unlike his battering rail-trip in the Derby, can more casually find a spot from which to stalk or close from his position on the far outside. Churchill-loving Blame (9/2) and up-and-comer (but not quite gettin' there-er, sometimes by a whisker) Fly Down (15/1) can settle into good positions from their posts, 5 and 6. If he takes to the track when it's (likely) fast -- something I consider iffy -- turf standout Paddy O'Prado (15/1) could also be closing late as he did to pick up third in a sloppy Derby back in May.

So I'm confident that somebody's gonna pass Quality Road before the wire, as did Blame when they met in the nine-furlong Whitney a couple of months back. (And Blame did it even though Quality Road benefited from fractions of 24.41 and 48.06 that were far from suicidal.) In fact, I wouldn't be flabbergasted if Quality Road were passed in the stretch on Saturday by two horses. Or three. Or more.

Sealing the deal in my opinion is the fact that the undeniably gifted, brilliant, very fast racehorse that is Quality Road, is only a 50/50 proposition when asked to race beyond a mile. He has six lifetime starts at nine or 10 furlongs. He has won three of them, all at the shorter of the two distances, two in record time at Gulfstream (the 2010 Donn H.-G1 and 2009 Florida Derby-G1). But he's 0-for-2 at 10 panels.

Now look inside that raw, coin-toss-equivalent percentage and see the horses he defeated, and which horses managed to beat him in the losses.

The 9f wins, in reverse chronological order:

-- Sept. 4 this year, the Woodward S.-G1, over Mythical Power, Tranquil Manner, Convocation, Indian Dance, Arcodoro and a by-now-flightless Mine That Bird. Apart from Mine That Bird's walking on water in the 2009 Derby, there isn't even a Grade 2 win in that field. Mythical Power has won two G3s; Indian Dance an overnight stake at Laurel. The other three have never won a stakes race of any kind, anywhere. The Woodward, in fact, is Tranquil Manner's only lifetime placing in a stakes race.

-- This year's Donn Handicap in February, the second time Quality Road has set the Gulfstream Park track record for a mile and an eighth, this time at 1:47.49. (He also holds the Saratoga record for 6.5f, a blistering 1:13.45.) Second place was Dry Martini, a rugged war-horse, four-time G2 or G3 winner (including at 10f) and millionaire who has been among the closest to chase home Quality Road more than once. Third was Delightful Kiss, G2 winner of the Ohio Derby. A respectable trifecta. The rest of the field: Mambo Meister; Helsinki; Past the Point; Kiss the Kid; Duke of Mischief; Dubai Gold.

-- The 2009 Florida Derby, a 1:47.72 track record win over Dunkirk (two G1 placings, no stakes wins before he became another Unbridled-line to break and be retired after five races), Theregoesjojo (only horse ever to beat Quality Road at less than 9f, in a 7f Gulfstream allowance, but whose only stakes performance besides two losses to QR is a third at Prairie Meadows), Stately Character (listed winner at Calder, but with three wins from 27 starts), Sincero (listed win at Calder, 5-for-24 lifetime), Casey's On Call (lone stakes win, the Western Canada Handicap at Northlands Park), and Toby the Coal Man (2-for-19 lifetime, no blacktype).

The losses, in reverse chronological order:

-- Quality Road lost the mile and an eighth Whitney to Blame, with Musket Man in third (again, in defiance of his own distance limitations, but still not good enough to win). Haynesfield, who was more than a handful during the gate-loading, was fourth. The only other two horses in the sparse field were a hopeless (yet still just 12/1) Mine That Bird and terribly overmatched Jardim (30/1).

-- Last fall as a 3-year-old, Quality Road was second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 at a mile and a quarter to eventual 3-year-old champion Summer Bird. Hardly an embarrassing "beat." But the horses who finished behind? By finish order: 3. Tizway (now a G2 winner, then a non-winner of any stake); 4. Macho Again (gutted by his narrow loss to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward, later skipped the Breeders' Cup, on the downward spiral toward retirement); 5. Dry Martini; 6. Sette E Mezzo (only career stakes-placing, third in a G2); 7. Asiatic Boy (in the last race of what had been a competitive, albeit not-often-winning, graded-stakes career).

-- In August 2009 at Saratoga, Summer Bird handed Quality Road the first of his two "beats" in head-to-head match-ups, winning the Travers in 2:02.83 for 10 furlongs. Second that day was Hold Me Back at 10/1. Quality Road settled for third as the beaten favorite. The also-rans: Charitable Man; Warrior's Reward; Kensei; Our Edge.

I'm not wishing to disparage the horses who finished behind Quality Road in these races, or to offend their connections. Almost to a horse, they're stakes-performers (at some level, if not graded) and six- or (rarely) even seven-figure earners. They're far better than the average racehorse in this age.

But if you look at all those names and let the caliber of their stakes careers tumble around in your mind just a bit, it isn't a stretch to say that anytime there was a horse in a 9f/10f race who seemed to be anywhere in Quality Road's ballpark on talent and form, that horse managed to beat him. Nor is it off-base to add that of the names of those who finished behind him, you wouldn't put many, if any, on the marquee.

Frankly, Quality Road arguably hasn't faced as many top-shelf-talented horses in his first 12 starts combined as he'll face in one race on Saturday.

I think Quality Road is a monster. All the way out to nine furlongs. He might win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in a laugher, if he ran it. But I know that isn't the race his connections want ... nay, need ... to win.

Quality Road might make me look the fool and win the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday under John Velazquez, for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner/breeder Ned Evans, some of the most respected -- and respectable, and respectful -- people in this business. After all, I was dead-wrong last year when I suggested it might be best to root for Zenyatta in the Classic, but to bet against her.

But I've been taking a stand against him in personal discussions for awhile, based on the 10 furlongs. (That is, the last one furlong more than the first nine.) And I feel strongly enough about it to go public.

Good luck to all. And safe trip.

Whither Gio Ponti in Breeders' Cup?

It's a curious question. Why take a champion grass horse and run him off the turf in two straight Breeders' Cups?

But that might happen with Gio Ponti.

Discussion at Facebook prompted me to consider the options along with the connections of this horse, who seem to be mulling whether to go on grass (and from there, in the Mile or the 12-furlong Turf), or whether to run in the Breeders' Cup Classic like last year -- albeit this time on dirt at Churchill Downs rather than Pro-Ride synthetic at Santa Anita.

The connections have said their plans as of today are to cross-enter him in the Mile and the Classic. But I think it's worth a full discussion of the particulars on all three races anyway.

I have noticed comments in a Facebook discussion from those who project Gio Ponti will go in the mile (to face two-time defending champion Goldikova, Europe's best mare) because the distance of the other races is too far. This puzzles me a little, considering Gio Ponti has five graded-stakes wins at 10 furlongs (the distance of the Classic) and beyond. He hasn't won at a mile and a half -- the distance of the Breeders' Cup Turf. But he was only asked to run 12 furlongs once, and while he didn't win (upset by Interpatation), Gio Ponti still finished second. It isn't like he faded to seventh. With a pair of wins in the 11-furlong, Grade 1 Man O' War the past two seasons, I'm not sure why the extra eighth of the Breeders' Cup Turf would be a panel too far. (Though his sire, Tale of the Cat, was at his best sprinting; more on him later.)

The allure of the Breeders' Cup Classic on the main track is simple. Not only is it a $5 million race, but if Gio Ponti wins it, his stallion syndication value skyrockets.

Through the prism of residual value, the horse has accomplished virtually all he can on grass. He is a turf champion, and champion older male last year without running a step in his life on actual dirt (a relative rarity). His gutsy runner-up finish to Zenyatta on Pro-Ride at Santa Anita in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic helped seal the older male title. He's the likely U.S. turf champion again unless unseated by a horse like Paddy O'Prado, who could do so by upsetting in the B.C. Turf. (Which, according to this story, he won't be trying, as Donegal Racing opts for the Classic, as well.)

If Gio Ponti were to win the 12-furlong Breeders' Cup Turf -- a distance at which American races are rarely run -- it does nothing to spike his stud fee above the range of former turf champions now at stud like English Channel ($25,000) and Kitten's Joy ($40,000). Gio Ponti is already in that territory (probably more in English Channel's proximity) as a stallion prospect based on his prior work.

Even unseating Goldikova in the Mile likely does him no good as a syndication prospect. (I've seen Gio Ponti described as having "no chance" against Goldi. But she's lost six of 20 lifetime, so she isn't unbeatable. And if anyone is going to do it, a horse like Gio Ponti -- 11-for-22 lifetime, 18-for-22 at least second place, is as likely as any in the race to do it.)

But "figuring" at all in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the real-dirt main track at Churchill -- even third place -- gives his potential customers at stud the hope that they might get a dirt horse from their mating, especially depending on the pedigree and prior production of their mare.

So what are Gio Ponti's chances in the Classic?

For starters, how can it be easier to win in that race against unbeaten Zenyatta than it would be in the Mile against Goldikova? (Although we've established Gio Ponti wouldn't necessarily need to win, for his connections to heavily benefit financially.)

Beyond that, for any horse that has never raced over a given surface, it's just a roll of the dice.

Considering there is more money and more prestige on dirt in American racing, if trainer Christophe Clement and owner Castleton Lyons Farm really thought they had a legit main-track horse, I'm surprised they haven't tried him on dirt already. But perhaps they've just been trying not to mess with success, and with consecutive Breeders' Cups run on Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, there wasn't any need until now to consider dirt.

Gio Ponti is hardly bred against the dirt. His sire, Tale of the Cat, was a main-track runner, with his best victory coming in the Grade 2 King's Bishop, sprinting at Saratoga. And Gio Ponti's dam, Chipeta Springs (Alydar-Salt Spring, by Salt Marsh), has produced two other stakes horses in G2-placed stakes winner Bon Jovi Girl and 11-furlong G3 victor Fisher Pond, both of whom have done their running on dirt. Second dam Salt Spring was Grade 1 placed on both dirt and grass behind the likes of Princess Rooney and Fact Finder.

One source I read elsewhere online stated Gio Ponti carries a 399 Tomlinson rating for a wet track. (Half-brother Fisher Pond's win in the G3 Lawrence Realization was in the slop, as supporting evidence.) So if the track comes up a little bit (or a lot) "off" at Churchill on Breeders' Cup weekend, that could play into Gio Ponti's hands in a one-off try over a real, live (non-synthetic) main track.

While winning is always the primary objective, it would appear that from the perspective of residual value, the connections of Gio Ponti have little to gain by the horse winning the Breeders' Cup Mile or Turf (other than a spiffy trophy, worldwide acclaim and a pretty good purse). Meanwhile, even being beaten by any (but not all) of the likes of Zenyatta, Blame, Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky or whomever in the Classic could elevate his value -- provided Gio puts in the kind of gritty performance he offered in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, losing only a length to The Unbeaten One herself, on her home surface.

And even if he runs up the track, Gio Ponti has all the excuse he needs -- first time on dirt. Provided he comes out of the Classic in one piece, there's probably nothing to be lost, even by finishing last.

As his racing career comes to an end and a much lengthier and potentially far more lucrative stallion career beings, there appears to be little but up-side to running in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I'm starting to think that's where he'll go.

Zenyatta: Root for, but bet against in Classic?

Less than 36 hours from now, we'll have no more questions about one of the greatest race mares of the last 20 years.

Zenyatta -- champion older female in 2008 and an unbeaten 13-for-13 against females -- has been entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic against the opposite gender.

It isn't just the step-up to facing males that is a question mark for the 5-year-old Street Cry mare. Zenyatta also never has raced the 10-furlong distance of the Classic.

Both of those unknowns -- plus her being favored on the morning line at 5/2 and, I believe, not likely to drift a lot higher -- lead me to figure that Zenyatta is a bet-against in this race.

After all, the talented mare has not been quite as dominating against her own gender in four races of 2009 (best Equibase speed figure a 116, six points below her career high). And now she tackles a field of 12 boys and men with their own distinguished list of accomplishments.

Eight of Zenyatta's male Classic opponents have won at 10 furlongs, a total of 12 times. Most notable are Gio Ponti (3-for-4 lifetime at the distance) and Summer Bird (2-for-3).

Three of the horses have victories over Santa Anita's all-weather strip, paced by Colonel John, who has won half of his six lifetime starts on that track and just missed a Grade 1 victory by a neck in the Goodwood there on Oct. 10.

Zenyatta is a California-circuit all-weather-track specialist, but despite a field peppered with East Coast-shippers, foreign invaders and turf horses hoping for crossover success, half of her opponents (including Gio Ponti) do have synthetic track victories to their credit.

And while the older males will carry 126 pounds and the mare does get a weight break for gender (123 pounds), the impost on the several talented 3-year-old colts and geldings in the group is even lower, at 122.

This isn't to say that Zenyatta has no strengths. She isn't favored without cause.

Beyond her unblemished lifetime mark, she is 4-for-4 over the track at Santa Anita, has the highest career all-weather speed figure per Equibase (122), and a jockey in Mike Smith who both knows her and knows Santa Anita (51 percent W-P-S during the meeting, third-best in the field among riders).

There's every reason to believe that a Street Cry mare out of a dam by Kris S. should be able to get 10 furlongs.

And she has been handled masterfully, but carefully, by trainer John Shirreffs, whom I doubt would cast her in this role if he didn't think she could handle it. ... I particularly like that Shirreffs has worked her at 6 furlongs four times in a row prepping for the added distance; she's the only horse in the field to have worked 6f more than once in the past few months and of the others, only two have drilled longer than 5f at all.

So if Zenyatta has all that going for her and is still a bet-against, for whom would I wager? Which one of these dozen males is going to beat her?

It's a tough call, but I'm leaning toward the 7-year-old veteran, Einstein, and I love the morning-line odds of 12/1.

Einstein is a battle-hardened competitor with G1 wins on both turf and synthetic. The Helen Pitts trainee is the only other horse in the field with a 120 or higher Equibase speed figure on an all-weather track, and he earned that 120 in winning the Santa Anita Handicap in March -- going this distance, over this track.

He's fallen off the radar a bit, but with only a bit of better racing luck, he wouldn't have.

Were it not for a trip in which, per the charts, he "bobbled," was checked, and was bumped, perhaps Einstein wins the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 13 to become only the second horse (the other being Lava Man) to have G1 wins on all three racing surfaces. Instead, he loses by a length to Macho Again and by a nose to Asiatic Boy (neither in this Classic field), finishing third.

Coming off a poor effort in the Arlington Million on grass (won by Gio Ponti with Einstein fifth beaten 8 1/2 lengths), Einstein came back to miss by only a neck to Richard's Kid (also in the B.C. Classic field) in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, another G1 on synthetic.

Pitts has Einstein working well. An Oct. 11 four-furlong move at Churchill was done in a less-than-scintillating 49 seconds, but the times were slow that day and he was still fifth of 58 at the distance. Same story on Oct. 18 when a 1:01 for 5f was still second of 60. And, he's since followed up with a bullet 59.8 for 5f (best of 54 at CD on Oct. 25), plus a Santa Anita work of 47.80 for 4f (6 of 45).

I think Einstein could be sitting on a big race, and that could make him the man to take down Zenyatta.

Others certainly have a chance.

Irishman Rip Van Winkle is quite talented, with several losses to certain European champ Sea the Stars, but how will the 3-year-old Euro turf horse handle older males and females, a U.S. synthetic track, and the ship all the way to California?

Colonel John can win at SA (3-for-6) and win at 10f (1-for-4). Richard's Kid is coming in off a G1 all-weather win at this distance two starts back and a career-high Equibase figure in the Goodwood last out. Gio Ponti relishes 10f but his synthetic speed figures are a notch below his brilliance on grass. Summer Bird, Quality Road and Mine That Bird all are talented, G1 winners, but as 3-year-olds can they best their elders?

Looking for a long-shot, particularly to fill out the exotics? Awesome Gem at 30/1 on the outside is 8-for-12 lifetime win/place/show on synthetics and 20-for-30 on the board overall, is coming in off a G2 dirt win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and has a career-best all-weather speed figure of 116 -- better than Gio Ponti (114) and Mine That Bird (114) and only two clicks slower than Richard's Kid, all of whom are at 12/1.

This year's Breeders' Cup Classic certainly is an intriguing race.

Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss are taking a big chance with Zenyatta, risking her unbeaten lifetime record to race a new distance and against males, presumably in a gambit to dethrone likely favorite Rachel Alexandra as Horse of the Year.

I'm definitely not rooting against Zenyatta in her quest. But at 5/2, I just don't like the odds.

Bummer, no 'Bird' rematch in Travers

It probably isn't the biggest shock, but I was bummed to learn that Mine That Bird will miss the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga this weekend as he recovers from recent epiglottis surgery.

It had been expected that the relatively simple procedure wouldn't make him miss the race, but a complication -- so minor as to perhaps not really be a complication at all -- has prompted the Kentucky Derby winner's connections to take a pass on the race as a measure of absolute caution.

I had been looking forward to the Travers as a race laden with talent in which perhaps both 3-year-old classic-winning sons of Birdstone -- Belmont-winner Summer Bird being the other -- would be coming from well off the pace and collecting the leaders in the stretch to make for the finish of the season.

And it's still got the makings of a great race. Quality Road indeed has something to prove, the talented Charitable Man might have more in the tank at the end of 10 furlongs than he did in the Belmont at 12, and Kensei has been the impressive winner of the Dwyer and Jim Dandy in succession.

Mine That Bird instead will be headed to the Goodwood in October at Santa Anita, which should be a good prep race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, at the same track over which that race will be run.

Hey there, big boy! ... Youthful Rachel Alexandra to strut her stuff against older males in Woodward

The interminable wait for information from the Rachel Alexandra camp  that everyone was squealing about over the weekend has ceased: The brilliant 3-year-old filly will next race on Sept. 5 in the Woodward Stakes against older males.

The G1 Woodward at Saratoga, a 9-furlong event run since 1954, has never been won by a filly or mare.

Connections say the decision was based not only on how well Rachel has been training, but the work of her Stonestreet stablemate, Kensei. The colt who most recently has won the Dwyer and Jim Dandy stakes will run in the Travers against his own age while Rachel steps up for principal owner Jess Jackson to face elders. No reason to run them both in the Travers, where only one can win, and when Rachel could make more history.

"Legacy," said trainer Steve Asmussen when asked about the primary reasoning behind the choice of race. Adding a little shot at Claire Novak, perhaps, Asmussen said, "Jess' sportsmanship ... is quite obvious instead of talking. No filly has won the Woodward. For everything else that she's done, I think it's a showcase or a platform that she's worthy of."

Now, I suppose, let the haters commence -- or, more accurately, continue -- with the talk of how Rachel is ducking Quality Road or even Kensei.

Yeah, what a sissy move. The testicle-dragging donkeys the 3-year-old filly be racing in the Woodward include: 6-year-old Asiatic Boy (UAE Derby-G2, second in the Dubai World Cup to Curlin); This year's Whitney H.-G1 winner Bullsbay, a 5-year-old; 4-year-old past Fountain of Youth-G2 winner Cool Coal Man; 6-year-old millionaire It's a Bird; and last year's surprise Belmont Stakes winner, Da' Tara.

But the field won't include Stephen Foster-G1 winner Macho Again, who is resting up for the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 in October.

So, you know, beating the remainder that do start in the Woodward will be almost meaningless.

Jackson says Rachel headed to Haskell

Owner Jess Jackson said Tuesday afternoon that his fabulous 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra -- unbeaten in 2009 and winner of both the Kentucky Oaks in dominating fashion over her own gender and gamely in the Preakness Stakes against the boys -- will face colts again in her next start, the Haskell Invitational H.-G1 at Monmouth Park.

"Rachel Alexandra is progressing well after her stakes record victory in the Mother Goose," said Jackson, owner of Stonestreet Stables, in a statement to the media. "We are all looking forward to seeing this great athlete perform again against both colts and fillies."

In the Haskell, Rachel will get a slightly shorter trip than she weathered against colts and geldings in the Preakness. The Aug. 2 Haskell is 9 furlongs, while the Preakness distance is 9.5f. And, having done all the work on the front end, had the Preakness been about five jumps longer (or had Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird gotten a slightly better trip under replacement jockey Mike Smith), Rachel might well have been caught.

She won't face Mine That Bird in the Haskell, but she is likely to face a horse that has beaten him -- Summer Bird, another son of Birdstone and winner of the Belmont Stakes, in which the Derby winner came home third.

The Haskell sets up as a good race for Rachel, however. She gets to run for $1 million, in G1 company against males, but on a weekend when two other races have drawn away some of the competition.

The Jim Dandy S.-G2 at Saratoga (where she's training) is a summer classic at America's mecca for horse racing, and though its purse is half that of the Haskell's and its grade is lower, it always attracts nice horses. Among them could be Charitable Man, who last ran in the Belmont, and Warrior's Reward, who stumbled badly at the start as the 4-5 favorite in the Dwyer S.-G2 (under Rachel's regular rider, Calvin Borel) and might be in the Jim Dandy seeking redemption.

Meanwhile, Mine That Bird is committed to the $750,000, Grade 2 West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park. And other top 3-year-olds have fallen by the wayside, with Quality Road seemingly not yet ready to return in time for the Jim Dandy, and Musket Man, who was third in both the Derby and Preakness, hurt and taken out of training.

That doesn't mean the Haskell won't be a challenge. Whomever else is entered, Rachel will likely be on the front end with the determined closer Summer Bird coming to catch her late. He'll stand a very good chance if there's any speed in the race to press Rachel on the pace.

Whether every race is stacked, they'll all be interesting as we watch to see which horses move on toward the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga at the end of August. We know that's where Mine That Bird is pointed if he comes out of West Virginia well. Likely Charitable Man and Summer Bird, as well, and who knows which other colts and geldings.

And, depending on how she fares in the Haskell, maybe which filly.

Charitable Man bears Virginia's banner in Belmont, belies state's breeding weakness

Horsepeople in the Old Dominion were thrilled this winter and early spring when a Virginia-bred seemed a serious threat to become the fifth horse born in the state to win the Kentucky Derby.

That horse was Florida Derby-winner Quality Road, but his Derby trail ended with a nagging quarter crack. Commendably, his connections, including breeder and owner Edward P. Evans, decided they were willing to wait on a good horse, and he's being slowly brought back around to racing form for a summer campaign.

Virginia enthusiasts are excited, then, that another VA-bred has stepped in at the end of the Triple Crown Trail: Charitable Man. Coming in off a win in the track's Peter Pan S.-G2, he has a real shot to upset Mine That Bird this afternoon in the Belmont Stakes.

But, both he and Quality Road are evidence of just how far Virginia's breeding game has slumped.

While Charitable Man is owned and campaigned by Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren, he, too, was born on Evans' expansive Spring Hill Farm near Casanova, Va. More and more, it seems, if you see a high-class Virginia-bred, it really ought to carry the "state tag" (EV), instead: Evans-bred.

This is not a knock on Mr. Evans. In fact, Virginia horse racing should be thanking God for "Ned" Evans. If it weren't for the love of his farm and his willingness to continue foaling mares there in spite of the presumed financial impracticality of the arrangement, Virginia thoroughbred breeding would have almost nothing. Evans keeps an estimated 90 mares at Spring Hill; the whole state of Virginia only foaled around 350 thoroughbreds in 2008.

Evans is the son of the late Thomas Mellon Evans, who owned Buckland Farm and was a noted horseman, breeding champion Pleasant Colony among many others. "Ned" Evans graduated with a degree in economics from Yale and an MBA from Havard, which pretty much punches a man's ticket in the business world. His chosen field was publishing, and while he maintains a residence in New York, as well, the 3,000-acre farm he bought many years ago in Virginia apparently still has a strong tug on his heartstrings.

That's apparent because Evans -- who is a member of the Jockey Club, owns an interest in numerous Kentucky stallions and could probably afford to buy a different farm or to board his mares anywhere -- keeps bringing them home to Spring Hill to live and to foal.

That likely isn't the most economical way to run a horse business, though I know others who take a stab at it, even smaller breeders. But ideally -- no, not ideally, rather necessarily -- if Virginia is going to save its thoroughbred breeding business, it needs a thriving, or at least surviving, stallion colony to do it.

Talk in Virginia Thoroughbred Association circles swirls around getting more off-track betting locations, particularly in Northern Virginia, which is a completely unserved population of around 3.5 million. Indeed, that is a big Step 1 to improving the lot of racing at Colonial Downs, and boosting the awards paid to breeders of winning foals; bonuses relied upon for ongoing income by those who make their living by selling a horse into racing hands. And the VTA makes a compelling case for the OTB expansion, including this pointed letter to Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine.

But unless the OTB revenues are also funneled into a stallion-specific bonus program -- specifically a VA-sired stakes program at Colonial Downs -- there will still be no incentive to choose a Virginia-based stallion. Breeders will continue to be much better off shipping out of state to quality stallions and returning to foal in Virginia, as Mr. Evans has chosen.

The alarming statistics showing the demise of Virginia's stallion ranks just keep piling up.

As I've already reported, of the 22 horses entered in this weekend's pair of VA-bred stakes races at Colonial Downs, 17 were sired outside Virginia and none of them -- though they're just 3- and 4-year-olds -- were sired by a stallion still standing in Virginia.

I've noted that Virginia's stallion and foaling businesses have plummeted just within the past 20 years. The number of Virginia stallions in service has dropped from 154 studs serving 837 mares in 1991, to 41 stallions serving just 123 Virginia mares in 2008. I have predicted that the numbers will be worse again in 2009.

On opening night at Colonial (scratch-filled, with the turf races moved to the muddy dirt track), there were but 18 VA-breds entered out of 83 horses in eight races. Of those 18, just one was sired by a stallion still alive and known to be standing in Virginia: If Its Meant To Be, by One Tuff Oop. Four others were sired by a quartet of stallions that once were at Virginia Tech University's MARE Center, but that facility was giving away many of its mares earlier this year and shows little evidence that its stallions, such as the capable Fred Astaire, are still in service. The others sired in Virginia, not just born there, were by horses now moved to other states (such as the accomplished runner and sire Black Tie Affair, now in West Virginia) or that have since died.

The signs of Virginia's breeding demise are almost entirely negative, and undeniable.

Virginia thoroughbred farms have produced the third-largest number of Triple Crown race-winners in history. Charitable Man could add to that number today.

But, almost by himself, Ned Evans can't keep Virginia-breds on the map forever.