Wither the Preakness starters? Here's my advice.

Late Saturday it started running through my head: If I were the connections of various Preakness starters, what would I do next?

Here are the conclusions I reached.

1. Rachel Alexandra: Winning the Preakness earned back a fair piece (maybe 6 to 10 percent) of her purchase price for Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables and Harold McCormick. She was impressive, tiring perhaps toward the end, but she did all the work in the race, gunning from the 13 hole and taking the field gate to wire. And jockey Calvin Borel said she didn't handle the track "110 percent." The Belmont is not a given; neither as a win (Mine That Bird is a'comin') nor even as a destination. She's defeated boys and can go back to beating up on fillies and have a fair chance at Horse of the Year -- clearly one of Jackson's goals -- without necessarily facing them again, especially if she knocks heads with defending filly and mare champ Zenyatta somewhere along the way and beats her, too. Unless Rachel is perfect in training the next three weeks, that's what I'd do. And maybe even then.

2. Mine That Bird: Better than I imagined, the Little Gelding Who Could probably will in the Belmont. He's a gelding, so the only way for him to earn his keep is by racing. If he's "right," he goes to New York, and probably as the favorite, with or without Rachel Alexandra. Look for him in some challenging spots at classic distances -- The Haskell at Monmouth early in August and the Travers at Saratoga at the end of the month, particularly. The goal is the Breeders' Cup Classic, but if that doesn't seem the best spot when that time comes, perhaps tackle the B.C. Marathon this year (he should get the distance; we'll know post-Belmont) and the Classic at 4.

3. Musket Man: Few Triple Crown-trail entrants have impressed me more than this colt. Sired by a sprinter who has already been banished from Kentucky to Louisiana (Yonaguska) he just doesn't seem bred to get the distances of the Preakness (9.5 furlongs) and Kentucky Derby (10f). But he "toughed" his way to third in both, and he won the Illinois Derby-G2 covering 9f at Hawthorne. It seemed his finishes at Churchill and Pimlico were all guts and not enough "kick;" he couldn't overtake Pioneerof The Nile at Churchill nor Rachel at Pimlico, and got outfinished by Mine That Bird. No shame in that and I'm not saying I'd never consider sending him longer than 8.5 or 9 furlongs again. But I do think he might be devastating in a one-turn mile.

4. Flying Private: What an improvement from Derby (last of 19) to Preakness (fourth). He might not have been as bad as the former and might not be as good as the latter; time will tell. Despite more than a quarter-million earned, he still has just one win from 12 starts. Time to get that second win in softer company.

5. Big Drama: Fifth place at Pimlico, but might've run the second-or third-biggest race. He already was coming into the Preakness with only one prep (DQ'ed from first in a 7f record-shattering performance at Gulfstream), and being asked to go an eighth more distance than he'd ever raced. Then he lived up to his name by bucking off John Velazquez in the starting gate, and followed that by bobbling the break. Somehow, he still made the co-lead with that freak of a filly while being wandered out into the center of the track, I can only presume in an effort to hang her out wide on the turn. Fifth beaten 5 1/2 doesn't seem so bad after all that. Nevertheless, as another, like Musket Man, who is sired by a sprinter (Montbrook) I would turn him back in his next start; maybe the G2 Woody Stephens at 7f on the Belmont undercard. We know he's a beast at that distance.

6. Papa Clem: This colt has had a tough trail. Second in both the Robert B. Lewis on the California circuit and the Louisiana Derby when shipped cross-country to Fair Grounds, he finally picked up that big graded win in the Arkansas Derby, over now-retired Old Fashioned. He was a brave fourth after a troubled trip on Derby Day, but a disappointing sixth at Pimlico despite less trouble than most of the field seems to have had. Seems time for a break. One of the best-bred in what is obviously a first-class group -- by Smart Strike, sire of Curlin and English Channel, and both his first two dams were G1 winners -- the sky is still the limit for this one. But after all that racing and traveling, a month or six weeks off could be in order.

7. Terrain: Has knocked heads with good horses, but hasn't won a race since Sept. 13, age 2, the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 -- and that by double-DQ. Bred to get a route of ground, he just hasn't been good enough to win in top-graded company. A move down in class from G1/G2 company is likely in order, at least until he wins a couple and regains confidence.

8. Luv Gov: Can we try NW2L company next out? Please?

9. General Quarters: Another one likely due for a break. He has campaigned hard and earned a bit of glory for his amazing, retired ex-school-principal owner/trainer/groom Thomas F. McCarthy, taking the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa. But he's made six starts already at 3 and is one of the few 2-year-olds who didn't really rest over the winter, running in four allowances (no wins?!) in October and November, then placing in Tampa's Inaugural Stakes two days after Christmas. Tenth at Churchill and ninth at Pimlico might be signs of fatigue. Break or not, I'd next send him back to the surface of his greatest victory -- synthetics. For Mr. McCarthy, that could mean working vacations to Canada (Woodbine) or California, or maybe just hanging around Chicago to try older horses in the Chicago H.-G3 on Independence Day at Arlington Park and the Washington Park H.-G3 in September.

10. Friesan Fire: Trouble at Churchill (18th place, suffering minor cuts on his legs), trouble at Pimlico (dropped almost to his knees at the start, finished 10th), so you'd think it might be time to pull back and regroup. But trainer Larry Jones is one of the best, and spaced this colt's races right leading up to the Derby. He shouldn't be too fatigued, though it's hard to imagine he came out of the Preakness terribly well, tough trip considered. But I wouldn't expect him to be sidelined all that long. While his sire is A.P. Indy, who usually throws plenty of stamina, his dam, Australian-bred Group 1-winner Bollinger, was a sprinter, so maybe the races in which he was so successful -- the Lecomte (8f), Risen Star (8.5f) and Louisiana Derby (8.5f), all at Fair Grounds -- are indicative that he's really a miler.

11. Pioneerof The Nile: I have two words for owner Ahmed Zayat and trainer Bob Baffert -- Hollywood Derby. Time and again we've seen synthetic performance translate to turf, and vice-versa, on the California circuit. He placed on synethic in the Lane's End at Keeneland, age 2, then ran a respectable fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. And he did everything right in four straight graded wins over synthetics leading up to Churchill. So we're goin' back to Cali (Cali, Cali) and is anyone gonna beat us? (I don't think so.) ... Seriously though, turns out Pioneer broke his maiden on the lawn at Saratoga, no mean feat. And while his sire, Empire Maker, might have run on dirt, Empire Maker's dam, Toussaud, was a turf mare and produced three G1/G2 turf winners, Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy. And (I've written this before), Pioneer's dam, Star of Goshen, was turf-stakes-placed, not to mention a daughter of noted turf sire, Lord At War(ARG), John's Call (Turf Classic Invitational, Sword Dancer Invitational) and Honor In War (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic) notable as G1-winning turf offspring. ... A bolder course of action would be to check out Pioneer's 3-year-old grass form in the Colonial Turf Cup-G2, two weeks after the Belmont (so five weeks of rest since Pimlico) and, if he wins there, point to the Virginia Derby-G2 and follow the Grand Slam of Grass trail all the way to the Breeders' Cup Turf-G1. ... But admittedly, I love grass horses.

12. Tone It Down: A return to allowance-level company is in order. I'll leave it at that until he shows me more.

13. Take The Points: I liked this colt prior to the Preakness. He was six-wide in the race, but I have a feeling something else went wrong, or perhaps they'll find he's not feeling well, because this battler had never been worse than fourth in his life. He's run his fastest going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, but was respectable in two starts on synthetics in California. Appears to be bred to go however far he needs, so I wouldn't absolutely cut him back in distance for good. Just figure out what went wrong and try to find a group he can beat next time.

Preakness preview, post by post

Here's the 13-horse Preakness Stakes field, and my thoughts on each. Includes morning-line odds (demand better if red, take 'em if green), five-generation pedigree (5x) and individual past-performances as PDFs from Daily Racing Form (PPs):

1. Big Drama (Montbrook-Riveting Drama, by Notebook), 10-1, 5x, PPs: Talented colt whose 5-for-7 ($890,250) record would be 6-for-7 if not disqualified to second in his Gulfstream record-shattering triumph in the Swale S. (7f in 1:20.88, 108 Beyer). Sire was a sprinter whose progeny average winning distance is just 6.45 furlongs; dam unraced but producer of three blacktype. Despite his sire's history, he won two stakes at 8.5f at age 2, though now being asked to go a furlong further than he ever has, and due to injury with only one race thus far at 3. John Velazquez rides as Eibar Coa sticks with Derby-third Musket Man. Early speed will make him a factor, but might wither before the wire.

2. Mine That Bird (Birdstone-Mining My Own, by Smart Strike), 6-1, 5x, PPs: Derby winner probably hopes for a wet Preakness for a repeat performance. Race sets up for him with speed to his inside as he's likely to take back a little (or a lot) and can do so freely and quickly to the nearby rail. Young sire off to a good start, including this Canadian champion 2-year-old, and a pedigree with virtually zero distance limitations. Derby Beyer of 105 was a completely unpredictable advance from prior-best figures of 80 and 81, and regression here would be no surprise. Has won 5-of-9 for $1,791,581, under three different jocks; loses Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra but gets hall-of-famer Mike Smith. Odds close to fair, but would like him better if Calvin did, too.

3. Musket Man (Yonaguska-Fortuesque, by Fortunate Prospect), 8-1, 5x, PPs: Illinois Derby-G2 winner at a mile and an eighth, but the 98 Beyer would have to improve, for par among Preakness winners is 111. Consistent 5-for-7 and $772,662. Sire was a sprinter, but colt showed with Derby third at 10f that 9 1/2 furlongs shouldn't be too, too far, at least for his guts if not for his pedigree. Odds fair, but in this group, don't settle for much shorter.

4. Luv Gov (Ten Most Wanted-City of Silver, by Nepal), 50-1, 5x, PPs: I'm still convinced this horse is only in the field to let his connections save face after it was stated that they were entering him during the Allen/Zayat anti-Rachel plot of last Sunday. If this closer figures at all, of course, I'll look like a fool. But he only just broke maiden in his 10th lifetime start ($62,896 total), on the Derby undercard. Career-best Beyer (87) in that race, but Jamie Theriot would have to coax 20 more points out of him to win here. A scratch before post-time? (Please?)

5. Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy-Bollinger, by Dehere), 6-1, 5x, PPs: Derby 18th a better 6-1 shot than the Derby first Mine That Bird? Possibly, though I'd like to get slightly better. Difference is Friesan Fire was showing nothing but progress (Beyers 94, 97, 104) before getting squeezed, bumped and eliminated from contention in Derby, where Gabriel Saez cantered him home, saving energy the 'Bird spent. Had won 4-of-7 for $603,265 prior, over fast strips and in the slop. Sire one of the best in America; dam an Aussie-bred Group 1 winner on turf.

6. Terrain (Sky Mesa-Minery, by Forty Niner), 30-1, 5x, PPs: For great-grandson of A.P. Indy out of a stakes winning Forty Niner mare (multiple blacktype-producer), distance won't be a problem. Has been a consistent performer, albeit consistently not first since three straight wins (one by double-DQ in the Arlington-Washington Futurity) in his first three races. Career-best Beyer a 91 coming home a hailing-distance third behind Friesan Fire (and close to placer Papa Clem) in sloppy Louisiana Derby-G2. Jock Jeremy Rose knows how to find winner's circle in Preakness (Afleet Alex). Beaten by four others who are in this race (also General Quarters and Big Drama) but did finish second to Pioneerof The Nile's third in Breeders' Futurity-G1. Exotics only.

7. Papa Clem (Smart Strike-Miss Houdini, by Belong To Me), 12-1, 5x, PPs: Gutty performer has won just two of seven, but for $899,940 as one was the Arkansas Derby-G2 wrested away from once-Derby-Trail-favorite (now injured) Old Fashioned. Has lost to several in the field, but had to be steadied and still finished only a half-length out of second in the Derby to Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man. Dam a G1-winning 2-year-old (Del Mar Debutante) who only lasted four starts; second dam won a pair of G1s and earned $903,000. Barely beat Terrain in Louisiana Derby-G2, but has progressed. Career-best 101 Beyer is close enough to threaten. Sire throws classic-distance champions (Curlin, English Channel) on dirt and turf. Rafael Bejarano will give him a chance, and at a price.

8. General Quarters (Sky Mesa-Ecology, by Unbridled's Song), 20-1, 5x, PPs: Horse has won three of 12 for $641,735, but one was the Blue Grass S.-G1 at Keeneland, which got him into the Derby for owner and one-horse trainer Thomas R. McCarthy. I liked him at Churchill and probably shouldn't have; he wandered home 10th, beaten nearly 18. But PPs show bounces followed by peaks -- 102 Beyer beating Musket Man in the Sam F. Davis-G3 followed by 81 in losing to the same horse in the Tampa Bay Derby-G3. Followed-up with a winning 95 in the Blue Grass, then dipped to 79 at Churchill. Is the Preakness under Julien Leparoux his next peak, at twice the Churchill price?

9. Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker-Star of Goshen, by Lord At War), 5-1, 5x, PPs: Mr. Consistency is, other than Rachel Alexandra, the overall class of the field. Grade 1 wins at 2 and 3; 5-for-9 for $1,634,200; four straight graded wins prior to a Derby-second under Garrett Gomez; dam a stakes winner and multiple graded-blacktype producer. Hard to knock, but something tells me I want at least that 5-1 and might not get it. ... An aside, by Empire Maker (dam Toussaud a graded stakes-winning turf mare, siblings Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy graded turf winners) and out of a turf-blacktype Lord At War mare, when do I get to see this colt on the lawn?

10. Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus-Beautiful Treasure, by Unbridled), 50-1, 5x, PPs: Derby-winning sire was second in Preakness. Dam was stakes-placed. Has gotten 9 furlongs decently (94, 91 Beyers) in the Lane's End-G2 and Arkansas Derby-G2. Only one win in 11 tries, but has knocked heads in graded company of late and earned nearly $200,000. Still, took three races to break maiden and has faced N1x allowance company four times without getting that second win, so two stakes-placings (at 6f and 9f), one graded, were hard to predict. Alan Garcia takes over from Derby rider Robby Albarado. Will be near the front and (with four seconds) sometimes fights to hang on for a piece. A better 50-1 shot than Luv Gov.

11. Take The Points (Even The Score-Ginger Ginger, by Fred Astaire), 30-1, 5x, PPs: Second-best (by 6) to early-fave-turned-off-Derby-trail The Pamplemousse in G3 Sham, then a respectable fourth behind Pioneerof The Nile, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in the Santa Anita Derby-G1. Stamina influences abound in pedigree; the distance won't be a problem. Dam unplaced in one start, but also produced an Indiana-bred restricted stakes winner in Tin Man Commin (Tinner's Way). Only six starts, but top Beyer is a 99, and he's a fighter who has never been worse than fourth. And, both career wins came in his only two starts under Edgar Prado, who takes him back today. Live at 30-1.

12. Tone It Down (Medaglia D'Oro-Chattin, by Rollicking), 50-1, 5x, PPs: Connections must have been encouraged by show finish in Pimlico's Federico Tesio on Derby Day, but considering the top two finishers in that race weren't deemed worthy of the Preakness, this colt shouldn't have been, either. Top Beyer of 87 would fall far short. Dam only a modest winner, but produced Maryland-bred champ filly Gin Talking (Allen's Prospect). Gets hall-of-famer Kent Desormeaux, who must've been desperate for a Preakness ride as he elbows out Maryland-circuit staple Mario Pino, who'd ridden the colt every race of his life prior. (Desormeaux otherwise is riding today in the Dixie-G2 and two maiden-specials.) Should be near the front, but seems to have little chance.

13. Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia D'Oro-Lotta Kim, by Roar), 8-5, 5x, PPs: Belle of the ball has the boys' boxers in a bunch. Comes in soaring off a 20 1/4-length romp in the Kentucky Oaks that earned a 108 Beyer, her fifth straight win in as many starts with Calvin Borel and her fourth consecutive triple-digit figure, the fifth being a tick below at 99. Borel to a degree handicapped this race for everyone by taking off the Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to stick with a filly. Yes, she is that good. By a Grade-1 classic-distance winner out of a stakes winning mare who is half to two other blacktype runners. Much points to her being the first filly to win this race since Nellie Morse in 1924, but at this price (or potentially even shorter) she's a bet-against. A front-running filly who has been no worse than a head off the lead in her five wins with Borel, she might have the speed to make the lead or come close, but she'll need to reach the front (or else change character and take back) or risk losing ground on the first turn from Post 13. Only good thing about the post is that she won't be bullied from both sides by jealous boys, though someone might try to hang her out wide. And how will she respond to her sale and the resulting barn switch from the only trainer she's ever known, Hal Wiggins, to Steve Asmussen? She's been the most prohibitive of favorites in her last four against fillies, and might be short-priced again here, but this is a much tougher test. Good luck and Godspeed to her; she'll need it. And if you take her to win, key her over someone in the exotics if you hope to make any serious money.

All said, this could be a Preakness for the ages. Safe trip to all, and let's hope it's remembered only for good reasons.

(Full-field PPs free from DRF's Formulator.)