Sales-pick exacta provides winner No. 17

I was looking forward to Wednesday evening's fourth race at Hoosier Park, because I was convinced one of my 2010 juvenile sales picks was gonna run away and hide with that one. And I was right.

But I had the wrong horse.

Pulgarcito, a first-timer from the barn of Steve Asmussen, broke from the 1-hole, bolted to the lead under Victor Lebron, and sailed around the rail to victory by five and a quarter lengths. He set blazing fractions, especially for a first-time starter, of 21.80 for a quarter and 45-flat for the half, posting a final time of 1:04 flat for five and a half furlongs.

Trailing from gate to wire was the horse I thought was going to win, another sales pick of mine, Category Killer. Trained by Tom Amoss, Category Killer had been working more briskly than Pulgarcito leading up to their mutual debut race. Consequently, he was sent off as the favorite at about 3/2, while Pulgarcito posted odds of better than 5/1 and paid $12.80 to win. (A rare, generous payout, I should think, for an Asmussen horse making his debut at a track like Hoosier.)

Finishing third, another two lengths behind Category Killer, was Finding Paradise, the second choice in the odds at a little less than 2/1 after he debuted with a second-place finish at Churchill on July 2.

Had you boxed my "sales-pick exacta," you'd have collected $37.20 for each $4 wagered.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst. He is owned by Heiligbrodt Racing Stable. The colt was a $37,000 RNA as Hip 849 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training.

I'd normally ignore the get of unraced stallions, or those -- like Greatness -- who only won a couple of races and were never stakes performers. But Greatness is a son of one of the 20th century's true prepotent sires, Mr. Prospector, and his dam Harbour Club was a track record-setting stakes winner. While those genes didn't amount to a splendid racehorse in Greatness, for whatever reason, he's passed a few good qualities along to his get. Through three crops of racing age last year, Greatness has sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals, although just one stakes winner. He's upgraded his mares, with a 1.26 Average Earnings Index vs. a 1.07 Comparable Index.

So when this fellow -- whose dam was a G3 winner at 2 and a proven stakes producer -- blistered 10-flat through an eighth, I took notice. Pulgarcito also already had a juvenile-winning full sibling in Great Attack, who won two of three starts last year at age 2. So the stage was set with this one for an early win, and he got it (earning $21,000) in his first out.

"Another likely FL-bred winner by this over-achieving sire," I predicted.

But I didn't predict that he'd win Wednesday.

While Pulgarcito had drilled no quicker than 38.60, 50-flat and 102.20 for Asmussen, Category Killer had worked sub-24 for two furlongs in May, quick as 46.60 for four furlongs in July, and most recently ran 1:00.40 just 10 days prior to this start. I thought the son of Officer-Dial a Trick, by Phone Trick, was the sharper of the two.

I thought wrong.

Category Killer did earn $7,000 for his owners, Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence. A half-brother to G2 winner EYE OF THE TIGER, G2-placed WILDWOOD FLOWER and stakes-placed stakes-producer Expanse, the colt was a $70,000 purchase as Hip 957 from the same OBSAPR sale that produced Pulgarcito. He drilled 9.4 in the under-tack show, and I suggested his price, despite being roughly double the sales average, could prove to be a bargain.

And it still might, because the colt got taken down Wednesday by an obviously super-sharp horse from one of the nation's most successful strings. I have to think Category Killer's chances are even better his next time out.

Also Wednesday, I had a firster from my sales picks making a start among NY-bred maiden special weights at Saratoga. There Goes Molly (Chief Seattle-Hey Darla, by Evansville Slew) was a $6,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May. I thought she might outrun her odds -- which were 12/1 on the morning line and nearly 18/1 at post -- but she pretty much lost all chance when she broke through the gate before the start and had to be reloaded. That's never a good omen.

Through Wednesday's racing, my 187 juvenile sales tips have made 110 starts, producing 17 winners (9 percent), 18 victories including stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (16.4 percent wins from starts), and 28 other placings (41.8 percent in the money). The Class of 2010 has earned $572,928, for $5,208 per start.

Track the progress of all 187 sales picks, plus a few "pans," at this former post.

Horse of the Year Rachel's best, and best for Rachel

How do you define "better off?"

That's an important question in light of the results from my recent poll, in which more than two-thirds of respondents (27 out of 40) said they believed that Rachel Alexandra is not "better off, a year after being bought and campaigned by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen."

I presume most readers who took a stand against Jackson and Asmussen believe that Rachel is not as healthy and fit a horse now as she was last year, or perhaps as she might have been with different handling. Certainly she's beatable now -- defeated twice in a row in desperately close finishes during her first two starts in 2010. And she had proved unbeatable in 2009, going 8-for-8.

I'm going to come down on the side of the minority here. For her utmost impact on racing history, for her value, and for her long-term legacy, I think Rachel Alexandra benefited from Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen.

What's certain in a situation like this is that nothing can be certain. Hindsight might be 20/20, but speculation (though I love engaging in it, too) usually isn't worth 20 cents.

There are, however, certain truisms of racing and horses. Not the least of these is that some horses are simply better (or at least more dominant among their peers) at age 2 or 3 than they ever will be after, while others are later-maturing.

And one axiom of life that's hard to ignore is this: You must strike while the iron is hot.

When Jackson's Stonestreet Stables acquired Rachel Alexandra after her scintillating, record-breaking victory in last year's Kentucky Oaks, there was little doubt he'd just bought the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

Bought had he bought the best horse?

That handy hindsight tells us probably not, since her unbeaten ways have not carried over into 2010, while Zenyatta continues to stand 17 hands tall at 16-0 lifetime. But by the end of last season, history shows, Jackson had bought the eventual Horse of the Year.

Following her crushing Oaks win, had Rachel stayed in the hands of her first trainer, Hal Wiggins, and her breeder, Dolphus Morrison (who doesn't believe in racing fillies against colts), she would have been pointed to the Black-Eyed Susan-G2 at Pimlico on Preakness Eve. Barring some freak incident or catastrophe, she'd have likely smashed a short field of sophomore fillies by the same sort of margin she'd posted in the Oaks. And while that win would have been another big step toward being champion 3-year-old filly, it would have done little toward earning her a Horse of the Year crown, and virtually nothing toward stamping her career as legendary.

Instead, Jackson and Asmussen entered her in the Preakness. There, Rachel did most of the work on the front end of a 9 1/2-furlong test, put away a talented speed horse in Big Drama (a 7-furlong record-setter) and still had the grit to hold off a gutsy Derby-showing Musket Man and the sharp and fast-closing Derby champ Mine That Bird to claim an historic win. She had beaten boys, she was the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness, and now talk quickly shifted toward whether Rachel Alexandra could become Horse of the Year.

Jackson and Asmussen shrewdly backed off the throttle for Rachel's next start. They entered her at Belmont in the Mother Goose, which drew up predictably short after almost nobody thought it wise to enter their girl against Super Girl. She romped in the Mother Goose, setting stakes records for time and margin, but clearly expended much less effort than had she been asked to face colts and geldings again on the heels of her Preakness win.

Already 6-for-6 on the season with three Grade 1 wins, Rachel was positioned to at least stake a claim to Horse of the Year by collecting two more noteworthy victories. She gathered those in the Haskell Invitational -- where she all but ran Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird and speedy sprinter Munnings off their feet in the slop -- and in September's Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, becoming the first female ever to win that race against older males; a race run since 1954.

By the finish line of her Woodward win, Rachel had done enough -- as the Eclipse voting months later bore out -- to be named Horse of the Year, despite not running in the Breeders' Cup and not facing Zenyatta, who scored an historic win of her own on that championship weekend as the first female ever to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The campaign clearly took a lot out of Rachel. She was cooped up (a debatable choice versus true turnout) for months before starting back to work. And unlike her championship season of 2009, she's proved unable to muster the gumption to stave off any and all challengers, getting nipped at the wire in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes by 6-year-old Zardana and nosed out of the La Troienne-G2 at Churchill by Unrivaled Belle.

But is Rachel worse? Isn't it possible that on these dates -- remember, Rachel's first two starts since a lengthy layoff -- a very fit older mare and a rising 4-year-old who is more lightly raced and at the top of her form cycle, were just a little bit better?

And even if Rachel is not her former self, who's to say she would have been anyway, even with less aggressive handling?

John Shirreffs has done a masterful job with two-time champion older female Zenyatta. She didn't race at all as a juvenile, and Shirreffs thereafter brought the giant mare along slowly, allowing her to grow into her body and her talent. As a result, she is as brilliant at age 6, if not more so, than she was during her first championship season at age 4.

But there's no guarantee that a softer handling of Rachel Alexandra at age 3 would have resulted in a 4-year-old filly to rival Zenyatta at 4. A more conservative course for Rachel at 3 could have still resulted in a 3-year-old filly title, but hardly Horse of the Year, and she still might not be any better at age 4 than she's proven so far to be.

And let's face it: Unlike Jerry and Ann Moss, who have chosen to bring Zenyatta back at age 6 for another season of racing (for which we should be cascading them with roses), there's almost no chance that Jess Jackson has any interest in racing Rachel at age 5, let alone 6. She'll be in the breeding shed next late-February or early March, being covered by Jackson's two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. So what was better for Rachel's future value as a broodmare (and the prospective prices of her foals)? Two really good seasons and one "lesser" championship among fillies and mares?

I think -- for her value (a practical concern in a sport that is a business) and for her legacy -- Rachel Alexandra was better served by one full-throttle season in which she shook the racing world and made history almost every time she ran, with the well-earned reward of 2009 Horse of the Year.

It's a trainer's job to recognize how and when to get the most out of his horse. Nobody could have gotten more out of Rachel Alexandra in 2009 than did Steve Asmussen; she was Horse of the Year.

Did that leave her "short" in 2010? It's impossible to say with any certainty; we can only be guessing. So that's no more than a definite maybe.

But it's safe to say that if Rachel Alexandra had been handled more conservatively last year, she'd only have been the champion 3-year-old filly, not Horse of the Year.

And this year, she probably still wouldn't be able to beat Zenyatta.

Rachel one year post-purchase: Better for it?

I launched this blog one year ago tomorrow with a lengthy pondering of the Rachel Alexandra purchase by Jess Jackson.

The brilliant 3-year-old filly had just completely left a field of her contemporaries in the Kentucky Oaks, leaving some to wonder whether she might have belonged in the Derby, instead. We would know within less than two weeks whether Rachel Alexandra "belonged" with the boys, as Jackson's camp, including trainer Steve Asmussen, pointed her toward the Preakness, instead of Pimlico's Black Eyed Susan, the traditional filly target. And her jockey, Calvin Borel, begged-off his Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to pilot his favored filly to victory in the Preakness, the first female to win the race since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Here we are a year later, and many steps have been run; races and championships won. Rachel was set on a course that her breeder and first owner, Dolphus Morrison, would never have taken; racing her three times against males. Morrison is among those owners (and trainers, and fans) who think that fillies belong in filly races, colts and geldings have "their" races, and never the twain shall meet.

Rachel proved up to the task in 2009. For Jackson and Asmussen, she rebounded from her gritty Preakness win with a cakewalk by record margin and time in a short-field running of the Mother Goose. Then she trounced a field of boys -- including Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird -- over a wet track in the Haskell Invitational, becoming only the second filly to win that summer classic. (The first was champion Serena's Song in 1995.) Last, she gutted out a front-running win in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, the first female ever to win that race, which has been run annually since 1954.

Though she skipped the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita -- owner Jackson had said for months he would not run his filly on the Pro-Ride synthetic course there, referring to such surfaces as "plastic" -- Rachel Alexandra's historic campaign was rewarded with Eclipse awards, not only as champion 3-year-old filly (which she was beyond doubt), but for Horse of the Year, to the chagrin of those who favored lifetime-unbeaten older mare Zenyatta.

The filly who had already set three records in 2009 for Morrison and his trainer and dear friend, Hall Wiggins -- that is, stakes-record times in the Golden Rod at Churchill and Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park, and a margin record in the Oaks -- went on for Jackson/Asmussen to set two records in the Mother Goose, and to win three indisputably historic victories vs. males. With Morrison and Wiggins it isn't an unreasonable assumption that Rachel would have been 3-year-old champion filly anyway. But with Jackson and Asmussen's aggressive handling, she became Horse of the Year.

So it would be difficult to argue that Rachel Alexandra was sold from a good situation into a lesser one.

Or would it?

After a grueling 3-year-old campaign, Rachel was laid-up for months without a work. She has come back to run tenaciously in a pair of stakes races -- and has lost them both by slim margins, the New Orleans Ladies to Zardana and most recently the La Troienne-G2 to Unrivaled Belle. Losing to an elder like Zardana in a comeback race after a long layoff is less surprising than being nipped at the wire by a fellow 4-year-old who'd made half as many lifetime starts and never won above the Grade 3 level.

Was Rachel Alexandra merely ahead of her age group as a 3-year-old, and now they've caught up? If so, she would hardly be the first horse to have been as good (especially by comparison) as she'd ever be at age 3 (or in some cases even at age 2), but only a "good" or even "average" horse at age 4 and beyond.

Or is she just not the same filly that she was in 2009? Has she "lost" something along the way? A step, or a little bit of heart? ... And if so, whose fault (if anyone's) is that? Should she have been handled more conservatively -- say, like a John Shirreffs might do, and did with Zenyatta at ages 3 and 4?

So on the anniversary eve of this blog, a poll: Rachel Alexandra, better off with Jackson and Asmussen?

Vote. And discuss in the comments thread, please. I can't wait to see what some of you think on this subject.

I'll tell you what I believe after the poll closes.

Meanwhile, I hope more than nine people vote, unlike my last Rachel poll. Geez, she gets beat once (now twice) and all the Rachel fans go into hiding?

Horse of the Year no longer 'unrivaled belle'

For those keeping score, the correct response in my recent poll should have been "someone else." Nobody had it.

When asked whether Rachel Alexandra would win the La Troienne S.-G2 at Churchill Downs today -- or would Zardana make the 2009 Horse of the Year start the season 0-for-2 by defeating her again as she did last out in New Orleans -- a whopping nine individuals cast their ballots. Five cast their aspersions on Rachel (in a manner of speaking) by choosing Zardana to win.

Well, you're all wrong.

In a stirring stretch drive -- Rachel's third in as many races dating back to September's historic and grueling victory over older males in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes -- a fellow 4-year-old filly, and a lightly raced one at that, showed that the champion does have her equals. Unrivaled Belle, making her eighth lifetime start and coming in off a Grade 3 win at Gulfstream, outfinished Rachel by a head at the wire.

Good for Rachel and her connections that she was only 90 percent. Next time she'll win.

Still, it has to be discouraging for owner Jess Jackson, trainer Steve Asmussen, jockey Calvin Borel, and all of Rachel's fans. She's come quite close to winning both of her starts after a lengthy layoff. She does seem to have shown guts down the stretch. But -- despite setting relatively easy fractions of :24.79 and :48.81, she didn't have enough in the tank to finish off the competition at only a mile and a sixteenth.

Remember, Rachel won the Preakness at 9 1/2 furlongs last year after setting fractions of 23-flat and 46 3/5. But on this day, she can't finish the job going a furlong shorter and on an easier pace.

If this is the case -- And who is to say at this point? -- Rachel wouldn't be the first horse to have been better at 3 than she'll ever be again.

And it's worth noting that after such a layoff -- about six months between her last race of '09 and first of '10 -- Rachel still might not be at her 4-year-old best. That "90 percent" line isn't necessarily an untruth told by Jackson; just something you don't really say on the eve of a race because it sounds like you're either sandbagging or getting your alibis in line before they're even needed. So Rachel in her third start off the layoff, a common angle to play for handicappers, might be just enough better that she beats whomever tries her down the lane on that occasion.

Unless that "whomever" is Zenyatta. Because if the likes of Zardana and Unrivaled Belle can run down Rachel Alexandra during stretch drives in consecutive races, there'd likely be no holding off the closer of all closers.

Team Rachel: A camp divided?

So the Apple Blossom showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta is off the board, leaving fans to wonder when the two will actually meet.

But there's an even bigger question in my mind right now.

Just how panicked -- and potentially divided -- is the Rachel Alexandra camp?

In the wake of Saturday's loss in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes by the reigning Horse of the Year, who was making her 2010 debut, comments by the principals give us more than a few hints at what they were thinking not only going into that race, but looking ahead to the now-scratched Oaklawn appearance.

Rachel's faithful rider, Calvin Borel, defended his filly as "a real racehorse" who didn't quit despite being headed in the stretch by eventual winner Zardana. "She needed the race, that's all."

And Rachel certainly did need the race. She'd been off since a Sept. 9 win against older colts and geldings in Saratoga's Woodward S.-G1. And while some discussion group friends of mine think she had plenty of work prior to her return, I disagree. Though she had seven published works after her four-and-a-half-month layoff, the first of those came on Jan. 31. I've had trainers tell me in the past that it usually takes two or even three months to bring a horse back to the starting gate off a significant layoff. Rachel started the New Orleans Ladies Stakes some 42 days after her first official work back at the track -- only six weeks, maybe a little bit short.

Trainer Steve Asmussen seems to know it.

"The filly's lacking fitness," he said immediately after the race. "It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it. ... She's not where I thought she was and if I had thought she'd get beat, she wouldn't run."

But she did run. And not all that terribly, posting a Beyer speed figure of 100, not exactly crappy for a race that was six months after her last start. And one wonders what might have happened had Borel let the girl run instead keeping her in a stranglehold in an apparent attempt to teach Rachel to rate.

"I wanted to let her run her race early, but they wanted me to wait," Borel said after the loss. "I wanted to go on past the speed horse (42/1 Fighter Wing) early. I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole."

Steve Haskin of The Blood-Horse details the many ways that Rachel seemed "not the same" on Saturday. And he astutely points out that had one or another of a very few things gone Rachel's way -- say, if Borel had let the champion have her head, or had Zardana not shipped east from California for the race -- the reigning Horse of the Year might well have won (in the latter case, quite handily) and the Apple Blossom would still be a "go."

But it isn't, and not because her trainer wrote off the upcoming race. Haskin notes that only an hour after Asmussen told reporters that Rachel had come out of Saturday's loss quite well, her principal owner, Jess Jackson, was scrapping the Oaklawn showdown.

I can't completely blame him, but it is starting to look like Jackson is training this horse, rather than letting his Eclipse champion trainer do the job.

Rachel's trainer initially said there was no way his filly could race against Zenyatta at Oaklawn because he didn't have time to work her up to a prep race and then get her back fit for an early-April Apple Blossom. Then Jackson finagled Oaklawn into setting a slightly later date for the Grade 1 race (not to mention bumping the purse tenfold, from $500,000 to $5 million if both Rachel and Zen race). And Asmussen was left with no choice but to get Rachel into a race by mid-March if he had any hope of turning her back on April 9.

Asmussen has said the filly isn't as fit as he'd like, though he reports she came out of her prep race well, apart from a gutsy and narrow loss. But literally minutes after Asmussen's statement on Rachel's post-race condition, Jackson nixes the Apple Blossom sooner, rather than later, and instead of allowing his trainer at least a few days to see whether the filly can bounce back in time to face Zenyatta for $5 million.

Borel laments being instructed to hold back his filly in a race that she might have run off with if not choked on the backstretch. And he doesn't say that "he" or "Steve" wanted Rachel rated at all costs, probably to teach her to save energy in a race against the late-kicking Zenyatta. Rather, Borel says "they" wanted the jockey to hold back his horse. If you think the second part of "they" is anyone other than Mr. Jackson, then I have a yearling who is guaranteed to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby, and shares are reasonably priced in the low six-figures.

Granted, Jess Jackson paid untold millions for this filly less than a year ago, off her smashing victory in early May's Kentucky Oaks. And the 2009 campaign plotted for her thereafter resulted in an undefeated season and honors as both top 3-year-old filly and Horse of the Year. He's certainly played a hands-on role throughout as is his right; it's his horse, and his money.

But Jackson less and less seems the type to just hire top professionals and trust them to do their jobs, without meddling. Asmussen is apologizing for not having the horse where she needed to be for a pair of races I'm not sure he really wanted her to run in the first place. And Borel sounds frustrated as the man in the irons, being told to rigidly employ a strategy that he clearly thinks got his filly beat. And they're all probably scrambling for answers.

Losing, even narrowly and with guts, has a way of exposing every tiny crack in a team's foundation. And the contrast between Rachel's and Zenyatta's connections becomes even more stark.

Way back last June, when Zenyatta's owner, Jerry Moss, got a little too bold in his statements about letting his unbeaten mare hunt down the upstart filly wherever, whenever, he soon backed down. I speculated that change of heart came after a discussion with his trainer, John Shirreffs, whose course for the horse was being speculatively altered. It wasn't long before those two were harmonizing again on their smash hit, "We're Breeders' Cup Bound."

I'm not sure Team Rachel has it so together.

And whether Rachel Alexandra has a great 2010 and any chance of beating Zenyatta -- should they ever meet -- depends on her humans getting back on the same page in the songbook.

Messin' with perfection

With a potential bout between title-holders approaching at Oaklawn Park on April 9, John Shirreffs -- who trains two-time champion older female Zenyatta -- has already knocked down Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, and he did it with a whole lot less mare.

Two-time champion older female Zenyatta on Saturday moved to within one win of tying a group of horses that include all-time greats Citation and Cigar with 16 consecutive victories by cruising to a 1 1/4-length victory in the Santa Margarita H.-G1 at Santa Anita. Meanwhile, 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra was summarily dethroned in the ungraded New Orleans Ladies Stakes by a determined, and Shirreffs-trained Zardana, who overtook her in the stretch.

Both champions were heavy favorites in their 2010 debuts, especially Rachel, who was sent off at a ridiculous 1/2o at Fair Grounds. But we really could have seen this coming.

Zenyatta, though briefly "retired," has in fact remained pretty consistently and impressively in training since her Breeders' Cup Classic win at Santa Anita in November. Meanwhile, Rachel took several months off after beating older males in September's Woodward S.-G1, a gutty effort that obviously took much out of her. And her conditioner, Steve Asmussen, said prior to the New Orleans Ladies' Stakes that his now 4-year-old filly wasn't 100 percent.

Rachel probably shouldn't have needed to be 100 percent to beat the group of four that she was presented this weekend at Fair Grounds. Zardana is a Grade 2 winner on synthetic, but was trying dirt for the first time in a good while and is simply no Zenyatta. And while rider Calvin Borel seemed to be discontent with the ride he was asked to give Rachel on Saturday -- "I wanted to let her run her race early, but they wanted me to wait" -- ultimately Rachel had a good trip and a pretty easy first six furlongs (1:12.86), and still couldn't hold on after taking the lead, battling but losing to Zardana in 1:43.55.

"My filly tried hard," said Borel. "She needed the race, that's all."

And with that, I couldn't agree more. Rachel really needed this race.

Minutes later Saturday, on the west coast, Zenyatta made her fans a bit nervous for a moment -- as is her wont -- but ultimately eased past the Santa Margarita field to win by more than a length without jockey Mike Smith ever striking her with the whip. It was as professional as any victory in her 15-race unbeaten career. And she looks as perfect as her lifetime record heading toward the potentially $5 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn, which Shirreffs says is Zen's target, Rachel or "no."

As for Rachel, the Apple Blossom might well be a "no."

"The filly's lacking fitness," said Asmussen after Rachel's defeat. "It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it. ... She's not where I thought she was and if I had thought she'd get beat, she wouldn't (have) run. You take her back, you evaluate her, you see how her mood is, her diet, how she goes back to the racetrack, how she breezes. No crystal ball could see that far ahead (to the Apple Blossom)."

Clearly Rachel wasn't perfect on Saturday, but her career never has been. Though she was flawless at 3, beating colts and geldings in three Grade 1 races and in every way deserving Horse of the Year honors, Rachel had been defeated three times as a 2-year-old. Now she's o-fer in one start at age 4 and, in her own trainer's words, clearly not where she needs to be less than a month away from that looming showdown with Zenyatta at Oaklawn.

And Asmussen knows full well that Rachel had better be close as she can to perfect before she goes messin' with perfection.

Runs like a girl: How Rachel, Zen, Proviso and others might be changing U.S. racing's gender bias

A thrilling 2009 racing season ended with a sharp debate among fans over whether 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra or 5-year-old mare Zenyatta -- who never faced each other during the season -- deserved to be named Horse of the Year.

That nod eventually went to Rachel at the Eclipse Awards. And since Zen's owners, Jerry and Ann Moss, decided to keep her in training instead of breeding her this spring, it looks as though we might get to see these two hook up early as April 9 in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park. Hopefully both females will stay healthy all season, meet more than once, and the thrills of 2010 might rival those of '09.

But decades from now, when we look back on the campaigns staged by the connections of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta in 2009, I wonder whether their seasons might be recognized as having a broader influence on the course of American racing.

That is, 2009 just might have been the year in which American thoroughbred trainers stopped being so scared of boys.

When breeder Dolphus Morrison sold Rachel Alexandra to Jess Jackson and company, shortly after her smashing win the Kentucky Oaks, Jackson and new trainer Steve Asmussen did something Morrison said he'd never do: Point the filly toward a race against colts. Morrison -- like many in the racing game -- believes that fillies and mares should only race against other females. Going up against males, so the thinking goes, is asking too much of a filly or mare, physically. But two weeks and a day after her record-setting margin in the Oaks, Rachel Alexandra most of the work on the front end and held on at the wire against Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird to beat colts and geldings in the Preakness Stakes, becoming the first filly to win that race since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Rachel, as any half-awake observer of horse racing knows, wasn't done facing boys after her historic Preakness score. She kicked around a short field of fillies in a boringly brilliant performance in the Mother Goose Stakes, then returned to the boys' club in the Haskell, running Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird right off his feet to win by 6 1/2 lengths over a sloppy track at Monmouth. In September, Rachel recorded her third victory against males -- this time older horses -- by becoming the first female ever to win the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga.

Rachel Alexandra finished the year 8-for-8, three of those wins in Grade 1 races against males. And perhaps her season forced the hand of Zenyatta's connections -- the Mosses and trainer John Shirreffs. They opted to let their big, lifetime-unbeaten mare tackle males in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita last November, not just because Zen "fit" in the race, but to make a lasting impression on one of the sport's biggest days in an effort to help the reigning Eclipse champion older female add Horse of the Year to her credentials.

Zenyatta won the Classic with powerful style, becoming the first female ever to win that race in 26 runnings. It was enough to more than cement her place in history; just not quite enough to beat out Rachel for Horse of the Year.

What has happened since? Well, nothing for either of these females, other than training toward their 2010 campaigns. But a lot for some other fillies and mares.

On Saturday at Santa Anita, the Juddmonte Farms' mare Proviso, trained by Bill Mott, "closed desperately in the final sixteenth" to become the first female ever to win the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. The British-bred mare nosed out Grade 1 winning Brazilian-bred Fluke, ridden by Joe Talamo, to score the historic win. Multiple G2-winner Battle of Hastings was third in a solid field of males that, on this day, got beat by a girl. (And a second female, Tuscan Evening, was entered in the race, but scratched by conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer after she drew the far outside post.)

And, on the same card, British-born mare St Trinians actually was sent off as the 3-1 favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, a race that had never been won by a female in its 72-year history. Make that 73 years, as St Trinians suffered a difficult trip and finished sixth; Misremembered won from a full field of 14. But the fact that a mare was the post-time favorite in a race never before won by a female suggests that bettors believe the girls can compete.

I was actually a bit surprised that Zenyatta wasn't in the "Big Cap" Saturday. It looked like a field she could beat, but instead she is pointed toward the Grade 1 Santa Margarita for fillies and mares this coming weekend. Maybe Shirreffs thought that going right back up against males after a four-month layoff was too much to ask. And in the end, Misremembered's winning time of 2:00.20 was faster than Zenyatta's victorious time over the same track and distance in November's Classic, so to win, Zen would really have needed to bring her A-game.

Flashing back to '09, Rachel and Zen weren't the only females to take on, and defeat, male horses in big races. Ventura defeated males in the Woodbine Mile-G1 in Canada on Sept. 20. And 3-year-old Evita Argentina beat nine boys to win the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes a year ago in February.

It really shouldn't come as a shock to American fans that the best females can run and win among males at the highest levels of the game. In Europe and elsewhere, they do it all the time.

Many times champion turf mare Ouija Board during the earlier years of this 21st century defeated males in the Group 1 Prince of Wales in England, and the G1 Hong Kong Vase, as well. She placed or showed among the very best males in top races such as the Japan Cup (won by Deep Impact), Coronation Cup (Shirocco), Irish Champion Stakes (Dylan Thomas), and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Bago). And when Ouija Board lost the Hong Kong Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2006, the race was won not by a male, but by another female, South African-born Irridescence.

Then there's Australian champion Makybe Diva -- a racing female so good and so famed she became known simply as "The Mare." She defeated males at least a dozen times, including three consecutive renewals of the biggest race in Australia, the Group 1 Melbourne Cup, from 2003-05.

There's an adage in horse racing that an owner or trainer should keep himself among the best company, and his horse among the worst. And certainly taking on lesser challenges is the faster route to the winner's circle. But I have to believe that a big part of racing is the desire on the part of the connections to let your horse meet and beat the best competition it can.

Sure, most of the time fillies and mares will continue to run against other females. Just as a statebred race limits the competition, making it easier for a horse to win or place well and earn his keep, gender-restricted races are typically easier spots to run and win for a filly or mare, and every trainer and owner wants to win; needs to win in order to pay the bills.

Still, if the conditions fit and your filly is tight and right, there are boys to be beaten, everywhere from the maiden ranks all the way up to Grade 1 races. And I'd like to see more females given the chance.

Rachel-Zen Apple Blossom showdown blooms anew

I'm scrambling on another couple of fronts this afternoon and might have to comment more later, but The Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman reports that the $5 million Apple Blossom Handicap match at Oaklawn Park between Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and champion older female Zenyatta is back on.

Oaklawn apparently has agreed to move the race back six days, easing the time window between when Rachel might be able to run a mid-March prep and the date she'd have to face Zen in the Apple Blossom. Rachel's trainer, Steve Asmussen, had lamented the likely three-week turnaround between races, saying he would prefer four weeks.

Leave it to Charles Cella and Oaklawn to make a bid this expensive and serious for the race of the 21st Century. Oaklawn of course offered the $5 million bonus that was cashed-in by Smarty Jones in 2004, for sweeping the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby on his way to also winning the Kentucky Derby.

"I've never had so much trouble giving $5 million away," Cella told Privman for the DRF.

But, Cella says he has a firm commitment from both camps to pit Rachel vs. Zen on Friday, April 9. That's the afternoon prior to the Arkansas Derby, and frankly could be a racing weekend to rival the Oaks-Derby double at Churchill a few weeks later.

So Rachel 'ducks' first

Unfair headline aside, the connections of 2009 Eclipse Award Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra have bowed out of a potential showdown with two-time champion female Zenyatta in the April 3 Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

Oaklawn had offered a $5 million purse for the Grade 1 race -- and planned to extend the 8.5-furlong test to 9 furlongs for this year only -- provided both champion females would be entered. But Rachel's principal owner Jess Jackson, upon advice from trainer Steve Asmussen, said on Wednesday that just isn't going to happen.

Frankly, they have a good reason. Rachel Alexandra only recently began working again at Fair Grounds after sitting idle for several months following her historic Woodward Stakes win over older males in early September at Saratoga. Meanwhile, Zenyatta pretty much hasn't missed a beat since winning the Breeders' Cup Classic over males in November at Santa Anita. While retirement allegedly was in the offing, Zen kept working, and from her drills she seems sharp enough to walk onto the track and beat just about anybody, tomorrow.

So, with the date being Feb. 10, an April 3 showdown of such magnitude would clearly be in Zenyatta's favor. Rachel will need a race or two before she could be expected to run her best, and frankly, on her schedule, April 3 might be her first race back. Surely Zenyatta will have run at least once in California (and probably crushed a field) before then.

What next? Jackson says he's working with the NTRA on devising a three-race challenge for the top females, that would "to rival the Triple Crown." Unless some colt is poised to actually win that crown on Belmont Stakes day, it's safe to say that Jackson's statement is not hyperbolic. All racing eyes -- and many outside the sport -- will be on Rachel and Zen when they finally do hook up on a racetrack somewhere.

Still, I'm disappointed it won't be at Oaklawn, because I intended to be there as my next stop on the Unexpected Vacation Circuit.

History in the making, and the ducking

You win some, you lose some. And apparently when phenomenal filly Rachel Alexandra is declared a probable for a Grade 1 race never before won by a female, you gain one and might lose one among the older male horses that had been pointed toward the race.

Steve Asmussen, trainer of Rachel Alexandra, revealed on Monday that she would bypass the Travers S.-G1 and a third shot at 3-year-old males in favor of facing those boys' elders in the Woodward S.-G1. Both races are at Saratoga. The Woodward has never been won by a filly or mare.

The announcement spurred West Point Thoroughbreds to point its Grade 1-winning 4-year-old colt, Macho Again, toward the Woodward, as well. He had been training at Churchill Downs since a second place finish in the Whitney H.-G1 and initially was to skip the Woodward in favor of a little extra rest before the Oct. 3 Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 back at Belmont.

That was great news for race fans, some of whom had actually suggested Rachel would be pointed toward a race -- reminder, a race never won by a filly -- as a way of ducking competition. Macho Again would have made the Woodward about as tough a field as Rachel could have been expected to face from this year's handicap division, considering Einstein was already bound for the Pacific Classic at Del Mar to face the best of the West.

But trainer Kiaran McLaughlin might make the opposite choice for his previously Woodward-bound horse.

McLaughlin said he contacted Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum, the owner of his 6-year-old Grade 2 winner, Asiatic Boy, about ducking Rachel and crossing the country to race in the Pacific Classic instead of Saratoga's Woodward, to which the horse had previously been pointed.

"I sent an e-mail overseas to talk to the owner and racing officials," McLaughlin told The Blood-Horse, adding that it isn't definite his horse will dodge a meeting with Rachel. The nomination to the Pacific Classic, which is run a day after the Woodward, merely gives Asiatic Boy another option.

"Nobody really wants to face Rachel Alexandra these days," said McLaughlin, which must come as news to the nobodies at West Point, who decided to alter plans and face Rachel rather than lay out of a race that hadn't been on their horse's schedule.

McLaughlin said giving Rachel an eight-pound break -- which she'll receive in the Woodward for being a 3-year-old and a filly -- might just be too much. Calling Rachel "great," a word he says is used too often but is appropriate in her case, McLaughlin flatly said he wanted no part of her. Wherever her principal owner Jess Jackson might send her. Ever.

"She's beat everybody that's gotten in the gate with her this year. Luckily, I haven't gotten in the gate with her and don't look forward to getting in the gate with her with Asiatic Boy," McLaughlin said. "... (S)he's great for the sport, and it's nice that Mr. Jackson chose some of these spots to show how great she is. He said he's hoping to run her next year as a 4-year-old, and that's nice to hear, but I don't look forward to running against her ever, with anything."

That might make perfect sense from a let's-don't-get-our-horse-beat-ever angle. But for McLaughlin to laud Rachel Alexandra as "great for the sport" and applaud Jackson for spotting her against males to prove her worth -- then tell us not to count on him and his horses to be a part of what's "great for the sport" -- leaves me disappointed in a trainer I normally find easy to root for.

I hope the Sheikh and trainer McLaughlin decide to keep Asiatic Boy in the East and face Rachel. If so, good luck to them.

If not, and if Rachel does happen to lose the Woodward, I hope it's Macho Again who proves to have been the man for the job.

Maybe West Point -- which sells and manages racehorse partnerships -- simply sees a Woodward with Rachel as too big a marketing opportunity to miss, win or lose. But winning would be a just reward for seeing history about to be made and choosing to be a part of it by running in, rather than from, the race.

Hey there, big boy! ... Youthful Rachel Alexandra to strut her stuff against older males in Woodward

The interminable wait for information from the Rachel Alexandra camp  that everyone was squealing about over the weekend has ceased: The brilliant 3-year-old filly will next race on Sept. 5 in the Woodward Stakes against older males.

The G1 Woodward at Saratoga, a 9-furlong event run since 1954, has never been won by a filly or mare.

Connections say the decision was based not only on how well Rachel has been training, but the work of her Stonestreet stablemate, Kensei. The colt who most recently has won the Dwyer and Jim Dandy stakes will run in the Travers against his own age while Rachel steps up for principal owner Jess Jackson to face elders. No reason to run them both in the Travers, where only one can win, and when Rachel could make more history.

"Legacy," said trainer Steve Asmussen when asked about the primary reasoning behind the choice of race. Adding a little shot at Claire Novak, perhaps, Asmussen said, "Jess' sportsmanship ... is quite obvious instead of talking. No filly has won the Woodward. For everything else that she's done, I think it's a showcase or a platform that she's worthy of."

Now, I suppose, let the haters commence -- or, more accurately, continue -- with the talk of how Rachel is ducking Quality Road or even Kensei.

Yeah, what a sissy move. The testicle-dragging donkeys the 3-year-old filly be racing in the Woodward include: 6-year-old Asiatic Boy (UAE Derby-G2, second in the Dubai World Cup to Curlin); This year's Whitney H.-G1 winner Bullsbay, a 5-year-old; 4-year-old past Fountain of Youth-G2 winner Cool Coal Man; 6-year-old millionaire It's a Bird; and last year's surprise Belmont Stakes winner, Da' Tara.

But the field won't include Stephen Foster-G1 winner Macho Again, who is resting up for the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 in October.

So, you know, beating the remainder that do start in the Woodward will be almost meaningless.

Rachel. Zenyatta. Belmont. ... And pigs fly.

Until proven wrong, I'm going to chalk this one down under the heading "I'll believe it when I see it." But the Daily Racing Form is reporting that the New York Racing Association is actively pursuing a sponsorship that would put a sizable chunk of change on the table in hopes of securing a race that draws both 3-year-old filly phenom Rachel Alexandra and unbeaten older mare Zenyatta.

DRF reports that a source inside NYRA claims the association is close to securing a sponsor that would most likely help bump the purse of the $600,000, Grade 1 Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct. 3 to $1 million as an enticement to the connections of both fabulous females.

Trouble is, money is just about meaningless to the connections of both horses. Rachel's principal owner, Jess Jackson, is the self-made-billionaire owner of Kendall-Jackson Wines. Zenyatta's owner, Jerry Moss, co-founded A&M Records with bandleader Herb Alpert and names horses in honor of his pal Sting. (Not the wrestler.)

The proposed $1 million purse of the Beldame is walking around money for these two.

Rather, at this stage of their lives, both Jackson and Moss are interested in one thing: Seeing their beloved horses win. A meeting in the Beldame might be fine for one of them -- Jackson, whose filly is training at Saratoga and has a huge win in the Mother Goose S.-G1 over the Belmont strip -- but makes little sense for Moss, trainer John Shirreffs and Zenyatta.

Though Shirreffs isn't yet rejecting the idea.

"We've talked to the owners, we've talked to the trainers. Nobody is saying 'no,'" the DRF's anonymous source said.

Shirreffs confirmed that the race is "something to consider."

"As far as going to New York, I'd love to take Zenyatta back there and have her seen there," Shirreffs told the Racing Form. "I'm from Long Island. One of my wishes in life is to spend some time at Belmont Park."

But, I figure, probably not now.

Mind you, it's now Shirreff's mare that has more reason to need this race. There was a time when I thought Rachel's connections would blink first in the staring match between these two camps; that she'd have to track down and beat Zenyatta to win any championship other than 3-year-old filly. But that was before Jackson sent his filly off for a second time hunting colts. Now her trophy room includes first-place hardware from both the Preakness and Haskell, and the pelts of the two other 3-year-old classic winners this season, Mine That Bird (Kentucky Derby) and Summer Bird (Belmont Stakes).

Meanwhile, Zenyatta has run her lifetime mark to a flawless 12-for-12 (Rachel was not unbeaten at 2), but hasn't left California in doing it and is coming off the closest call in her life; winning by a head in a photo over Anabaa's Creation in the Clement L. Hirsch-G1.

By winning a Triple Crown race and beating the boys twice, Rachel Alexandra is the biggest sensation in all of American racing this season. Zenyatta by comparison is the most dominant horse on the West Coast. As a friend pointed out in a discussion recently, when his co-workers were asked about racing, even those who didn't follow the sport knew full-well about Rachel Alexandra. Nobody had a clue who Zenyatta was.

Lucky for Zenyatta and her connections, then, that the clueless don't vote for Eclipse Awards. (Though your opinions may vary.)

Especially because of the relative lack of stars in the male ranks, I believe that either of these fine females could still be horse of the year. Neither is more than two wins away.

It's how best to get there that matters.

Jackson has already said -- and said, and said -- that Rachel will not run in the Breeders' Cup on Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, where his champion Curlin struggled home fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic of 2008. Usually ducking the Breeders' Cup would make it very hard to win a championship, but Rachel has been so dominant this year, even against males, that she's given herself a fighting chance.

I'm not sure that beating 3-year-old colts and geldings again in the Travers S.-G1 is her best bet on the road to Horse of the Year, but she could always run against older males in the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga on Sept. 5. Possible starters for that race include Grade 1 winner Macho Again and G2 winners such as Asiatic Boy, Arson Squad and Smooth Air. And no female has ever won the Woodward. So if Rachel notches yet another historic win, in that company -- perhaps even scaring some of those gentlemen off -- she could probably be shut down for the season by Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen and still be Horse of the Year. Running and winning in the Beldame about a month later would just add a second, sweet layer of icing to the cake.

But for Zenyatta, does winning Horse of the Year require beating Rachel? Well, not if somebody else does it for her.

Yes, the best way for Zenyatta to overtake Rachel in the race for the top title would be to beat her head-to-head. But the Beldame is not a race that plays in Zenyatta's favor.

Shirreffs, who planned to keep his mare in California all year leading up to the Breeders' Cup, would have to take her off the West Coast synthetics (where she's usually a monster) and ship her thousands of miles east to run on plain dirt, at a track where Rachel has already set records. The only advantage left for Zenyatta would be her age and physical maturity, but even experience is now on Rachel's side; though only 3, she's run one more race than Zenyatta in her life (13 vs. 12) and she knows what it's like to lose and seems to have decided she'd rather never do it again, thank you.

Shirreffs says Question 1 for Team Zenyatta regarding the Beldame is "does it fit into the Breeders' Cup schedule?" At this stage of the season, if I were them, I think it doesn't. Shirreffs can instead point Zenyatta to the Grade 1, $300,000 Lady's Secret at Santa Anita's Oak Tree meeting on Oct. 10, hopefully win with a little more cushion than in the Hirsch, and stay put for the Nov. 7-8 Breeders' Cup at the same track.

Provided she comes out of the Lady's Secret with a win -- and especially if Rachel runs against males again in either the Travers or Woodward and loses -- then Moss and Shirreffs can decide whether to let Zenyatta try to repeat in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, which very well might not be enough to win her Horse of the Year, even at 14-for-14 lifetime, or to take on males herself in the Classic at 10 furlongs, a distance she's never raced. Winning the latter, coupled with a Rachel Alexandra loss, and Zenyatta indeed could be Horse of the Year, not just champion older female.

Yes, an aggressive, proactive Moss and Shirreffs might go after Rachel at Belmont in the Beldame. But an aggressive Zenyatta camp wouldn't have staked out an all-Cali 2009 schedule in the first place for an unbeaten defending female champion.

And for wealthy men more concerned with the win/loss record than the size of the winner's check, a $400,000 bump in the purse of the Beldame doesn't seem likely to make them any less conservative now.

Despite 'plastic' hype, Rachel should stay ready to run

Jess Jackson is practically giving away Rachel Alexandra's place in the Breeders' Cup, but I'm not buying. Not yet, anyway.

The principal owner of the best filly in the land says his girl who beat the boys in the Preakness might race colts and geldings again in the near future, but she isn't going to California to face reigning queen Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup. Jackson, whose racing concern is dubbed Stonestreet Stables, says he doesn't want Rachel Alexandra running on "plastic," his term for the synthetic surfaces that have been mandated by California for all major racetracks.

Santa Anita, which will host the Breeders' Cup for the second straight year, has a Pro-Ride brand surface for the main track. Jackson says it plays in favor of a grass horse, and he has evidence to prove it. His horse Curlin was bested last year by a European invader, Raven's Pass, in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

"I have a very strong dislike for plastic surfaces," Jackson said. "I've seen dirt horses run on plastic -- they struggle over it. Curlin did last year. I think plastic favors turf horses."

Jackson seemed dead serious about skipping the Breeders' Cup with Rachel. "I'm absolutely certain," he said. But he really needs to rethink his position.

By crushing her peers in the Kentucky Oaks and then gutting out an historic victory in the Preakness, Rachel Alexandra has positioned herself for a run not at champion 3-year-old filly, which is all but in the bag, but the Eclipse Award as Horse of the Year. I could see her winning that prize without beating Zenyatta in the Ladies' Classic at Santa Anita. I cannot see the award being conferred on her if she doesn't even try.

Jackson of all people should realize that throwing a stinker on synthetics doesn't ruin a horse's resume for the award, nor his reputation, considering Curlin's honors last year that were bestowed despite his forgettable final race. The big chestnut gave his best at Santa Anita, over a surface he didn't like, at the end of a lengthy, global 4-year-old campaign, and he was respected for it. The same respect would be afforded Rachel if she sweeps undefeated for 2009 into Southern California, but can't beat Zenyatta in her own back yard, which the older mare apparently has no intention of leaving between now and then.

And that brings me around to the Breeders' Cup officials and their lame idea of running consecutive Cups at the same track for the first time in the event's quarter-century history, a move that's looking worse all the time.

I already laid as much blame on the Breeders' Cup's doorstep as I did at the houses of Zenyatta's owners, Jerry and Ann Moss, and trainer, John Shirreffs, for their decision not to challenge Zenyatta on the road this summer. With big purses and Grade 1 races to run at on the SoCal circuit of Hollywood Park, Del Mar and Santa Anita, and considering her seeming invincibility over the synthetic surfaces, why go anywhere else?

Now that decision by the Breeders' Cup could -- if Jackson is true to his word -- prompt Zenyatta's greatest (only real?) competition to skip "the biggest race of the year."

It's purely speculation, but reasonable to believe that had Jackson not watched Curlin struggle over Santa Anita's Pro-Ride last year, i.e., had that race been run elsewhere, he'd not fear running Rachel there this year. And if the Breeders' Cup were being run at any track with a traditional surface this year, Rachel would be there, presumably so would a potentially unbeaten (lifetime) Zenyatta, and Zenyatta might have been tested on the road at some time this year, to boot.

Since that horse-hockey decision is already out of the barn, it's worth returning our attention to the horse we can still catch -- Rachel, if she's in her stall, so she can be put on a plane to Santa Anita this fall.

If Jackson limits her to abusing short fields of 3-year-old fillies -- as she's likely to do this weekend in the Mother Goose S.-G1 -- then the glory of her Oaks-Preakness double fades a bit with time. Even if he and trainer Steve Asmussen send her out in the Haskell or Travers against 3-year-old males and she wins, Zenyatta remains potentially unbeaten for her whole career, with back-to-back victories in the Breeders' Cup (the latter earned while Rachel sat on the sidelines) to leave the season's last big impression on Eclipse voters. And if Rachel should lose to a colt or gelding in the Haskell or Travers, her Horse of the Year chances take what I believe would be an insurmountable setback without redemption in the Breeders' Cup.

Jackson and Asmussen can sandbag all they want right now. But their filly should remain on a course for racing at Santa Anita on Breeders' Cup day.

Rachel Alexandra has a 2-year-old win over synthetics at Keeneland, a race in which her Beyer speed figure was consistent with her dirt efforts at the same stage of her career. Maybe it isn't her favorite surface, and maybe she would go to Santa Anita, not give her best, and lose to a champion. (Or a long-shot that, almost inconceivably, beat them both.)

But Rachel wasn't unbeaten when Jackson bought her. The filly's win-streak might not extend through next year anyway if Jackson races her at 4 as he suggested Wednesday. And there's more to be lost for Rachel's reputation and public goodwill by "chickening-out" of a scrape with Zenyatta -- "plastic" home-track advantage or not -- than there is by racing and losing.

Rachel out of Belmont; and ready for her close-up, Mr. Klein

It's official: Rachel Alexandra won't run in the Belmont Stakes.

If we needed a hint, it came earlier Friday when the fabulous filly spent more time posing for a photographer from Vogue than she did jogging over the track at Churchill Downs.

Granted, I don't know Rachel's normal work schedule under trainer Steve Asmussen. She might have been due for only an easy lap on Friday morning anyway.

What I was certain about is that a barn trying to make sure its newly-purchased star had her game-face on for a Grade 1 race at a mile and a half against colts and one high-soaring gelding was not likely to schedule an appointment with renowned fashion photographer Steven Klein, wake the filly from a comfy afternoon slumber, and traipse her in front of a 10x16 backdrop fashioned between Barns 36 and 38 at Curchill. The shots by Klein -- who has also photgraphed Madonna and "Brangelina," and whose work has been used in ads for Calvin Klein and Dolce & Gabbana -- are to appear in August's issue of Vogue.

The idea to feature a horse in one of America's glitziest fashion mags popped into the head of Vogue editor-in-chief Anna Wintour after she was present to witness the filly's Preakness win. And I'll go on record as saying this kind of publicity will be absolutely awesome for horse racing.

But it didn't seem like Asmussen and Stonestreet Stable were terribly focused on the Belmont Stakes, nor interested in risking a June "beat" for Rachel in such a tough race when her photo spread won't be due on newsstands until August.

Zenyatta's five-race 2009 homestand

Trainer John Shirreffs' announcement Monday that champion mare Zenyatta will be staying home in 2009, thank you, has caused a bit of a stir among those who hoped to see the 5-year-old Street Cry daughter really strut her stuff nationwide, and maybe against the boys, this summer.

It certainly has the cinch of our blogosphere friend Ghostsnapper's saddle a notch too tight.

I'm not inclined to solely blame the Zenyatta camp, namely Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss, because part of the fault lies with the folks whose decision 11 months ago made such a 2009 campaign for Zenyatta too attractive to pass up; that's the Breeders' Cup.

For the first time since the series' inception in 1984, North American racing's biggest, richest weekend is being hosted by the same track -- Santa Anita -- in consecutive years. It means that to defend both her title as top older racemare and her perfect record, presently 10-for-10 after a coasting win in the Milady Handicap, Zenyatta never has to leave her home base of southern California. And that means she gets to stay on synthetic surfaces all summer, where she's a proven monster.

If the Breeders' Cup were planned for anywhere outside of California, it almost certainly would not be staged over a synthetic main track. And that could prompt Shirreffs to take Zenyatta on the road a time or two, in order to keep her familiar with a traditional dirt surface and perhaps to get a race over the specific strip where the 2009 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic would be run.

Says Shirreffs, "With the Breeders' Cup out here, what's the point (of traveling)?"

"When it gets closer to (Breeders' Cup) time," says Shirreffs in May, of the late-October festival, "you don't want to ship around too much. Saratoga is a long way."

To be sure, Shirreffs and Zenyatta's connections are showing no inclination to really test their mare this year. Not only is Shirreffs begging off a trip to America's racing mecca, Saratoga, for a possible date in a Grade 1 race like the Go For Wand at 9 furlongs early in August or the 10-furlong Personal Ensign in the month's waning days. He's also on record as opting out of letting her face Grade 1 males -- even at home in California. And he isn't particularly interested merely in asking Zenyatta if she can stretch her legs for an extra furlong.

"The (Hollywood) Gold Cup is a mile and a quarter," Shirreffs said. "She's never run that far. It would be an ambitious spot and against the boys? Let's make it even harder."

So in a move similar to, say, the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers unilaterally deciding they'll be playing all 16 regular-season games this year at home in Heinz Field, Team Zenyatta will commute to work all year in southern California. In horse racing, they have that right.

And it isn't like Zenyatta won't be running in major races, for big money. The 9-furlong, Grade 1 Vanity Handicap and its $300,000 purse await June 27 at Hollywood Park. A fairly short van ride to Del Mar on Aug. 9 would let Zenyatta punch her timecard in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch, then it's back to Santa Anita's Oak Tree meet for the G1 Lady's Secret Stakes as a prep for the Breeders' Cup.

Now for what this really means: If Rachel Alexandra and her connections want a piece of Zenyatta -- and I suspect they do -- they'll have to come and get her. And that, in my mind, is by design. Zenyatta will be at home, both in her stable arrangements and on the SoCal synthetics. Rachel has won over the fake dirt, but she's made just one of her 10 starts on the stuff, so a matchup at Del Mar or during the Oak Tree meet has to give Zenyatta the home field advantage in every way.

I think Ghostsnapper is right -- this schedule set out by Shirreffs likely sinks any chance Zenyatta had of being horse of the year instead of just champion handicap mare. Voters will want to see her tested, not protected.

Curlin won the title last year (over a perfect Zenyatta) because his connections -- namely Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable, also primary owner of Rachel Alexandra -- weren't scared of anybody, and weren't ashamed of losing in the name of good sport. Curlin crushed 'em in the Dubai World Cup. In a test to see if he might actually try France's storied Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Curlin tried turf in the G1 Man O'War, and it took a Breeders' Cup champion in Red Rocks to beat him. Even his fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- over synthetic at Santa Anita -- was forgiven because of the surface, perhaps, and everything the horse had gone through to get there; he was rewarded for the competitiveness and resolve he'd shown throughout a rigorous, global 4-year-old campaign.

Precisely because Jackson and Stonestreet own Rachel Alexandra, I still think a clash of the distaff titans will happen this summer. Rachel has no perfect record to protect, having lost three times at 2 (before she met Calvin Borel), and Jackson would rather see his filly challenged (witness her Preakness entry), even if she fails, than to see her coast against overmatched competition.

I could be wrong. Trainer Steve Asmussen might plan a conservative 3-year-old campaign for Rachel from now until Breeders' Cup weekend, as well. Grade 1 races against her own gender and age await in Belmont's Mother Goose (9f, June 27) and Coaching Club American Oaks (10f, July 25), and the 10-furlong Alabama at Saratoga on Aug. 22.

She could try G1 older mares (absent Zenyatta) in Saratoga's Go For Wand and Personal Ensign, or Belmont's Ruffian and Beldame. Or she might face colts (and perhaps gelded Derby champ Mine That Bird) again in a race like the Travers. But she doesn't have to in order to win nice races, good money, and additional respect, especially with that Preakness triumph already in her pocket -- a Preakness triumph that, in light of the Zenyatta camp's decision to play it conservative, is looking even more impressive.

Meanwhile, let's hope the Breeders' Cup never again chooses to hold its show at the same venue two years in a row. Not only does that deprive fans of lesser means in other parts of the country of a more affordable opportunity to attend (at a closer venue), but -- especially with California's universal adoption of synthetic surfaces at all major tracks -- it's made the career of Zenyatta an almost exclusively Southern California phenomenon, with only one lifetime start anywhere else. (The 2008 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.)

I'll bet the connections of Lava Man wish the Breeders' Cup would have pulled this stunt during his heyday of unquestioned SoCal dominance.

Five reasons why Mine That Bird will win the Preakness

What, you thought I gave the Kentucky Derby winner no chance in Saturday's Preakness Stakes?

1. Bye-bye, Borel: Believe it or not, I don't think Mine That Bird needs Calvin Borel. Though the jockey's ride in the Derby was masterful, the gelding has shown that he can win without him. Mine That Bird has five wins from nine starts, and those victories have come with three different jockeys; Chantal Sutherland is the leader with three. This loss of jockey really could be much ado about nothing when it comes to race-riding at Pimlico. In fact, if what trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and primary owner Mark Allen want from the horse is to be taken back early (done in part by necessity and in part by design in the Derby, to great success), replacement jock Mike Smith is among the best at winning with a deep closer. (Remember Giacomo?) ... Besides, Borel, a 14-percent winner in 2009, is at his best at Churchill. The guy getting the pickup mount is a hall-of-famer winning at 18 percent. How bad a trade is that, really?

2. Rachel Won't Win: I'm not saying that's a surety, I'm just saying that Rachel Alexandra as favorite -- probably heavy favorite -- isn't as sure a thing as the final odds (whatever they might be) are likely to suggest. And not just because she's a filly (though it plays a role; first race against boys, her toughest field ever, etc.). Look what's being asked of her. She's won five straight, and streaks do typically end. She switches barns, from Hal Wiggins, who obviously knew her well, to Steve Asmussen, who (despite, no doubt, talks with Wiggins), hardly knows her at all. Shipped to Pimlico, new stall, new grooms, new regimen. ... Tall order.

3. The Race Sets Up For Him: Another point against Rachel, for starters. She draws the 13-hole, which superstitiously is a negative, and could be practically, as well. A filly who runs up front -- no further than a head off the lead in her five straight wins -- Rachel might have to spend considerable energy early to draw clear and be able to drop over toward the rail to avoid being hung out very wide on the far turn; especially if one of the boys on the inside decides to make it extra-tough on the filly. Meanwhile, 'Bird sits in the 2-hole with fairly fleet Big Drama to his inside, permitting Smith to take back only a little and get right on the rail to save ground. He can sit second or he can sit 12th, it's up to him and his horse. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs here.)

4. Remember His 'Dirty Little Secret?' Well, Forget It: Yesterday I noted Mine That Bird's two efforts over a fast, conventional dirt track have not been nearly good enough to win a Grade 1 race. (They weren't good enough to twin two ungraded stakes races.) A fast strip at Pimlico could be a problem. It also could be a moot point. The Weather Channel's hour-by-hour forecast predicts a 30 percent chance of rain or thunderstorms almost straight through in the 24-plus hours from 6 p.m. Preakness Eve, to the 6:15 Saturday evening post time. And the chance of rain escalates in the forecast to 50 percent shortly after the race, and 60 percent throughout Saturday night. If the track takes on moisture at any time after the Black Eyed Susan card today, and if the heavier or at least more-probable rain comes in just a little earlier than the advance forecast predicts, the field could find itself playing in the Derby champion's birdbath, much to his contentment.

5. David vs. Goliath (or, 'The Birdstone Factor'): In this case, Goliath is a girl, and a talented field she leads, and fate, and the odds, which will still be somewhat stacked against this little gelding, although hardly 50-1 as they were on Derby Day. He's a little guy -- by some reports barely 15 hands -- facing a monumental task. But so was his sire, Birdstone, on the day he stole the Belmont Stakes and a Triple Crown from Smarty Jones at 36-1 odds. Don't doubt for a minute that heart and a spirit can flow from sire and dam to son and daughter, just as surely as more tangible attributes such as color, stature, speed and stamina. Then there are the Preakness myths, of almost biblical proportions, primed for the little hero to overcome. ... "Pimlico is speed-favoring, and the traffic can make it even harder on a closer." He can get through; he's a small horse. ... "But the turns at Pimlico are so tight!" Did you forget he's a small horse? ... "But it is just too big a task." The bigger they come, the harder they fall; eh, Goliath? ... Maybe this 'Bird is just the "David" to do it.