tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12665730655846801312024-03-05T12:29:42.764-05:00Fugue for TinhornsThis guy says the horse 'can do'Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.comBlogger479125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-46913252466069925102014-05-22T18:48:00.001-04:002014-05-22T18:48:40.704-04:00Tough situation, smart move by DRF: Two days of free PPsConsidering I've taken time to criticize the horse racing industry as a whole and individuals or organizations within the industry for lack of good public relations skills, I'm going to give a pat on the back this evening to the Daily Racing Form.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="http://drf.com/">DRF.com</a> has been down now for quite some time -- going on 48 hours, I suppose. And it may have taken DRF management a little while to make this decision, or at least make posting possible, but as of this wring, the Daily Racing Form is offering <i>free</i> past-performances for <i>all</i> North American tracks, for today (Thursday, May 22) and tomorrow.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<a href="http://pp.drf.com/freePPs.jsp" target="_blank">Just click here to download them</a>.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I don't know if doing this sort of thing was completely impossible in the wake of DRF.com's recent server failure, up until this afternoon, or if it just took management awhile to come up with the idea for this sort of olive branch to the Daily Racing Form's customers. But it's a shrewd move, and one that should be appreciated by all those who rely on DRF PPs -- as I do on the rare occasions these days I get to a track.</div>
Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-3632146890795479442014-05-18T11:01:00.000-04:002014-05-18T11:08:14.872-04:00Nasal strip flare-up threatens Chrome's Crown run, highlights need for national regulations<br />
<div>
One of California Chrome's populist owners on Saturday <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/85152/coburn-jabs-churchill-on-derby-hospitality?&utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20140518" target="_blank">fired a shot at Churchill Downs management</a> for the track's perceived lack of hospitality during Kentucky Derby week.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now they've fired a shot across the bow of the New York Racing Association, and anyone in this sport who still stands in the way of commonsense, nationwide, universal regulations for thoroughbred competition.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/california+chrome" target="_blank">California Chrome</a> story has caught America's attention. The bargain-priced, modestly bred colt with a six-race win streak and owned by a couple of fellows with an unabashed "regular-guy" streak -- enough that Steve Coburn and Perry Martin named their stable Dumb Ass Partners -- stands one last victory away from capturing the nation's first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But an arbitrary, 15-year-old ruling by New York stewards might prompt the connections to skip the Belmont Stakes in three weeks. <a href="http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/triplecrown2014/story/_/id/10949680/nasal-strip-threaten-california-chrome-triple-crown-bid" target="_blank">Trainer Art Sherman says the horse might not make his bid for Triple Crown glory in the Big Apple on June 7</a>, because Chrome's co-owner Martin is who wanted the colt to run with the strips in the first place, and might not let him run without them.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Martin, it should be noted, apparently was so put off by the lack of hospitality in Kentucky during Derby week that he skipped the Preakness entirely. He completely stayed away. So don't be certain he won't do the same with his horse over an issue this dear to his heart.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
"This guy Perry Martin, he might not run if they say you can't run with a nasal strip," <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2014/05/18/california-chrome-nasal-strips-belmont-stakes-triple-crown/9245559/" target="_blank">Sherman told USA Today</a>. "He's very funny about things like that."</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
New York remains one of very few North American racing jurisdictions in which thoroughbreds can't compete while wearing nasal-strip breathing aids, similar to those worn by some human athletes.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Operative words are "thoroughbreds" and "compete" in that sentence. Apparently in New York it's O.K. for standardbred horses to wear the breathing strips in harness races. And NYRA hasn't banned the strips for <i>training</i> on the state's thoroughbred racetracks -- only for race-day.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But it's a ban NYRA and its stewards have stood by in the past, even in the face of derailing a Triple Crown bid. In 2012 the connections of <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/ill+have+another2" target="_blank">I'll Have Another</a>, like California Chrome a Golden State shipper to the three eastern races, were going to be denied use of nasal strips by NYRA in the Belmont. That horse's trainer, Doug O'Neill, said he was prepared to "respect" the ruling run the horse without a breathing strip.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Ultimately, I'll Have Another didn't run in the race due to a leg injury. He was scratched only a day before the Belmont. And was saved the indignity of all the rampant speculation that NYRA stewards might have nostril-blocked the first Triple Crown winner in more than 30 years by their staunch enforcement of what is -- let's face it -- by all evidence just an arbitrary rule.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For a fan to stand behind NYRA in its possible rejection of a breathing strip-wearing California Chrome in the Belmont, we have to know why the anti-strip ruling was reached in the first place, and why NYRA continues to enforce it today, despite the device's use in so many other jurisdictions.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And after a little reading, all I can come up with is "just because."</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
From Bill Heller's book "Run, Baby, Run," it seems NYRA stewards rejected the strips after a very brief and inconclusive test in the autumn and early winter of 1999, after the breathing aids made a big splash at the Breeders' Cup, with about 30 percent of the competitors wearing them. The strips were banned for racing at the state's thoroughbred tracks, but not for training, and then-NYRA CEO Barry Schwarz said it was the stewards' choice.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A steward explained.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
"We knew nothing about them, and I don't like to endorse something that the public doesn't know about, whether it affects the horse or not," said NYRA steward David Hicks.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That actually was a well-reasoned approach. For 1999.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now it's 2014. We know a lot more about the strips, although that information is hardly definitive. Among the things we think we know is that the strips may or may not significantly reduce Exercise Induced Pulmonary Hemorrhage (EIPH, for which nearly every racehorse in America is injected with Lasix before every race), but that they at least don't seem to do any harm. And they don't work many miracles on the racetrack, either.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There have been numerous studies of the strips since they made a splash when a long-shot named Burrito won a race at Keeneland sporting such a schnoz-sticker. <a href="http://veterinarynews.dvm360.com/dvm/article/articleDetail.jsp?id=807416&sk&date&pageID=2" target="_blank">Some found glowing results</a> -- Kansas State University initially saw a 33-percent decrease in EIPH among the wearers and a study at the University of California-Davis found that the most severe "bleeders" benefited the greatest. Other studies found no harmful effects, but couldn't really establish any helpful ones, either.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Initially it looked like the strips were going to be a hot commodity, but within a year or so their use had subsided. Still, a handful of trainers use them wherever they can -- just not in New York.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
From a bettor's perspective -- which seems to be what NYRA is trying to protect, since it doesn't mind the horses wearing the strips for training -- with a month-long analysis of Churchill Downs races in 1999 Andrew Beyer quickly established that nasal strips were a throw-out in evaluating past performances.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
"The data from Churchill suggest that bettors can disregard nasal strips as a handicapping factor," Beyer wrote.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Equibase data from the period generally supported Beyer. <a href="http://trainermagazine.com/published-articles/2013/8/8/nasal-strips-increasing-performance-reducing-eiph" target="_blank">Between Oct. 23, 1999, and April 24, 2000, some 8,402 thoroughbreds raced with the nasal strips and 1,077 won</a> -- a strike rate of 12.8 percent. … Not very compelling. According to The Jockey Club, <a href="http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=10" target="_blank">the average field size of that era was about 8.15 horses</a>, and since at least one horse has to win every race, that means the average strike rate was around 12.3 percent. If the breathing strips helped, it was only marginally.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So here we are in 2014 and stewards in New York may dig in their heels and defend a conservative decision made based on a lack of information in 1999, as though they've paid no attention at all to everything that has happened since.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Yes, it can be argued that "everything" to have happened is "not much." But that's part of the point.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There isn't unanimous overwhelming evidence that the strips are beneficial, but there seems to be a dearth of evidence that they're harmful to the horses, which should be everybody's first concern. And there never was any evidence that the strips were somehow shafting bettors. Even if they do create a tiny advantage in winning or losing, simply mark their usage on the past-performances like blinkers or any other piece of equipment and let the fan decide whether the strips are important enough to account for in handicapping.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This story further illustrates the debacles that a lack of universal North American racing rules invites. It doesn't matter much that the rules differ from California to New York if all you ever run is a $7,500 claimer. But in the graded stakes world, from connections to mere fans we expect horses to ship coast-to-coast -- sometimes overseas -- and still be able to bring their A-game. Weather, track conditions and other factors will always differ, but to have no single set of basic competition rules for what medications and equipment are allowed at the very least can create confusion and mistakes for visiting trainers, and at most can lead to what we may have this year -- a Triple Crown hopeful who stays away from the race of his life.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Try explaining that to racing's fans, let alone the the masses who already give horse racing very little credit as a major sport.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So here we are, in a stare-down on Main Street, city-slickers NYRA at one end of town, Steve Coburn in his cowboy hat and Perry Martin with the itchy trigger finger at the other. It's a three-week walk to the Belmont Stakes during which fans have to hope somebody blinks to avoid an ugly confrontation.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is also our latest, potentially loudest call for nationwide regulations. It would benefit horses. It would benefit their connections. It would benefit the Triple Crown trail, Breeders' Cup and graded stakes everywhere. It would benefit the spirit of equal competition. It would benefit handicappers. It would benefit even the casual fan.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It's time for all the state-run fiefdoms to relinquish at least that much control, so silly things like this nasal-strip business can be settled once and for all, not flare up every couple of years threatening to embarrass the entire industry.</div>
Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-90278271935700482014-05-16T16:17:00.003-04:002014-05-16T18:09:25.803-04:00Churchill Downs finds a way to lose twice on the $15K it overpaid Wes Welker<div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.churchilldowns.com/" target="_blank">Churchill Downs</a> today might just be the poster-facepalm for an entire racing industry that is foundering for lack of better marketing and public relations.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's the scenario:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
1. <a href="http://www.weswelker.com/" target="_blank">Wes Welker</a>, darned-good football player and pretty widely recognized as an all-right guy, dresses up to attend the track's biggest racing day. (<a href="http://caveviews.blogs.com/.a/6a00d8341bffd953ef01a3fd02d38f970b-pi" target="_blank">Glamorous!</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
2. Welker wins big, and who doesn't like a winner? (<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23winning" target="_blank">#Winning!</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
3. Welker celebrates his score by <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/wes-welker-kentucky-derby" target="_blank">handing out $100 bills</a> to numerous utter strangers. (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populism" target="_blank">Populist!</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
4. Churchill Downs realizes it made an error in the payout and <a href="http://www.tmz.com/2014/05/16/wes-welker-churchill-down-kentucky-derby-overpayment-15k/" target="_blank">demands Welker repay</a> almost $15,000. (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWDLJXhKQRo" target="_blank">Buzzkill!</a>)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For the record, Churchill Downs, Welker's score and impromptu philanthropy was good publicity worth perhaps a hundred times what you lost in overpaying on his winning tickets. Asking for some of that money back -- less than 15 large on a day that your own betting service, <a href="http://twinspires.com/">TwinSpires.com</a>, by itself handled a record $21.5 million -- is CD management face-planting in the souvenirs left after the post parade.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Are you <i>trying</i> to disprove the adage that there's no such thing as bad publicity?</div>
Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-8514115038614514792013-09-20T08:45:00.002-04:002013-09-20T08:45:25.865-04:00Another year, another milestone -- and moreA lot happens when a guy doesn't update his blog for more than a year, especially if that blog is about horse racing.<br />
<br />
Work and personal commitments might get in the way of a blogger, but the racing goes on. And for my 2-year-old sales class of 2010 -- now a bunch of 5-year-olds -- a few milestones were reached while I was "away."<br />
<br />
One of the more significant markers of note happened only recently, as the class broke the 400-win barrier. The total now stands at 401 wins from 2,927 races worldwide, for a win rate of 13.7 percent.<br />
<br />
Grabbing the milestone victories were a foreign runner and something of a surprise winner in the States.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/wild+shuffle" target="_blank">Wild Shuffle</a> (Hennessy-Shuffle Again, by Wild Again) has come into his own as an older horse in Trinidad & Tobago. The bay gelding, bred in Kentucky by Liberation Farm and Brandywine Farm, has a 3-8-11 record from 41 lifetime starts, but is 2-2-4 from 10 starts in 2013. His third lifetime win was victory No. 400 for the group of 187 2-year-olds I selected from various 2010 U.S. sales.<br />
<br />
On Wednesday this week (Sept. 18), <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/knows+how+to+rock" target="_blank">Knows How to Rock</a> (Rockport Harbor-Unchained Princess, by Clever Trick) garnered his second lifetime win, and at a price at Kentucky Downs. Sent off at 13-1, the gray or roan gelding sat just off the pace in the mile-seventy race on grass, overtaking the leaders down the stretch and nosing out <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/alexander+thegreat" target="_blank">Alexander Thegreat</a> at the wire.<br />
<br />
Knows How to Rock was bred in Kentucky by Keene Ridge Racing LLC and is now owned and trained by Jose G. Castanon. The victory was his second -- he broke maiden among special weights at a mile on dirt at Mountaineer -- and he's had to fight for both of them, winning by a neck in his maiden-breaker and a nose on Wednesday. He has a 2-2-6 record from 22 starts for $47,319. I tabbed him one of my "steals" of the 2010 Keeneland April sale, where the horse sold for $13,000.<br />
<br />
The sales class also boasts a new graded stakes winner and two new stakes-placers from the past 11 or so months. One has been a consistent winner throughout his career overseas, while the other found his stride when moved from dirt to turf in the States.<br />
<br />
Previous stakes winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/delightful+mary" target="_blank">DELIGHTFUL MARY</a></b> (Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy) was the sales-topper at the OBS April sale, bringing $500,000. She earned that back by the time she turned age 5, including a dead-heat for the win in the Ocala Stakes at Gulfstream as a 4-year-old and a win at age 3 in the OBS Championship Stakes. She was second in the G3 Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine and third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 at Churchill as a 2-year-old.<br />
<br />
Dropped back into the sprint ranks, where she performed brilliantly as a juvenile, <a href="http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/78623/delightful-mary-something-special-in-hendrie" target="_blank">she scorched the Woodbine Polytrack to victory in the Grade 3 Hendrie Stakes</a>, covering 6.5 furlongs in 1:15.54. The victory bumped her earnings to $588,055.<br />
<br />
Elsewhere, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/viva+ace" style="font-weight: bold;" target="_blank">Viva Ace</a> (Macho Uno-Dancing Lake, by Meadowlake) was just a $20,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training back in 2010, when I tabbed him among 48 prospects for a bargain-minded buyer. But he's compiled an 11-8-2 record from 27 lifetime starts over the Busan track in South Korea, earning a substantial $621,276 when converted to U.S. dollars.<br />
<br />
On May 5, Viva Ace was one of two horses to upset an overwhelming favorite (G1-winning filly <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/gamdonguibada" target="_blank">GAMDONGUIBADA</a></b>, by Werblin) in the Gukje Sunmin S., aka the Gukje Newspaper S. The race was won by <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/beolmaui+kkum" target="_blank">BEOLMAU KKUM</a></b> (Put it Back), with Viva Ace a game second over the favorite.<br />
<br />
Viva Ace was bred in Kentucky by Jim Gladwell, Martha Gladwell and Crossroads Farm LLC.<br />
<br />
In the United States, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/just+chillin+boss" target="_blank">Just Chillin Boss</a></b> (Sweetsouthernsaint-Aleutian Gold, by Prospector's Gamble) came to life in 2012 when switched to the grass by new connections.<br />
<br />
The chestnut gelding had one win and no placings from six starts on dirt in his native Florida when claimed by Bobby S. Dibona for $20,000 at Gulfstream Park March 16, 2012. But the horse never raced for Dibona, moving instead into the hands of Mid-Atlantic Thoroughbred Investments and into the training barn of Ramon Moya.<br />
<br />
Those connections moved Just Chillin Boss to the Northeast and entered him in a starter allowance at Meadowlands on May 5, going a mile on grass. Just Chillin Boss did all the work on the front end in that race and was game to the wire, beaten just a neck by <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/incisive+strike" target="_blank">Incisive Strike</a>.<br />
<br />
The performance convinced his connections that Just Chillin Boss should stay on the lawn, and it was a fortuitous decision. Over his next six starts, all at Monmouth Park, Just Chillin Boss would grab three wins and place third in the My Frenchman Stakes (to former Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint-G1 winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/chamberlain+bridge" target="_blank">CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE</a></b> and multiple stakes winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/ju+jitsu+jax" target="_blank">JU JITSU JAX</a></b>). Just Chillin Boss would also set two track records on the Monmouth Turf Course (24 feet from the hedge), covering about 5 1/2 furlongs in a blistering 1:01.12 in an allowance win on July 8, 2012, and blazing over 5 furlongs in 54:66 for an optional-claiming win on Aug. 24.<br />
<br />
Just Chillin Boss was claimed from that record-setting Aug. 24 race, for $22,000 by new trainer Gregory D. Sacco for owner Elliot Mavorah. He managed one second place run from four starts for those connections before being shelved after a Dec. 7 race at Tampa.<br />
<br />
The Class of 2010 has earned its keep at the racetrack. The 187 prospects sold or were RNAs for a combined $6,446,900 and now have justified those bids by earning $11,841,814 worldwide. That's an average earnings figure of $68,449.79 for horses that on average sold for just $36,016.20 -- about $20,000 less than the average 2-year-old to sell in 2010.<br />
<br />
The class has 23 stakes-placers from 187 members (12.3 percent) and nine stakes winners (4.8 percent).<br />
<br />
You can review all their statistics, updated through Sept. 19, 2013, <a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html" target="_blank">at the bottom of this prior post</a>.Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-2611280532928911702012-08-01T15:19:00.003-04:002012-08-01T15:19:39.057-04:00Stakes A'mighty: A new black-type filly and a return to glory for a sales-class millionaireA 4-year-old filly donned black type her coming-out party in stakes company Saturday and a formerly injured millionaire may have found his old mojo on Sunday as my 2-year-old sales class of 2010 continues to earn their keep at racetracks around the globe.<br />
<br />
Saturday afternoon at Calder Race Course, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/prize+doll" target="_blank">PRIZE DOLL</a></b> stormed from off the pace to win the Ms. Brookski Stakes on turf at Calder over a field of 10 other competitors. On Sunday, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/gourmet+dinner2" target="_blank">GOURMET DINNER</a></b> found the winner's circle for the first time since his 2-year-old season, taking the Majestic Light Stakes over the main track at Monmouth.<br />
<br />
Saturday's victory -- her third in nine starts -- wasn't the first time Prize Doll faced stakes competition. Her connections of owner and co-breeder Edward A. Seltzer and trainer Curtis Garrison debuted her in restricted stakes company in March 2011 in the OBS Sprint Stakes (Filly Division), a race for horses that at some time had passed through the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. ring. She was last of six that day, yet beaten only 4 1/4 lengths. (Another sales-pick of mine, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/take+me+to+zuber" target="_blank">Take Me To Zuber</a></b>, was second.)<br />
<br />
The chestnut filly by Pure Prize out of the minor stakes-winning mare Doll Baby (Citidancer-Sand Pirate, by Desert Wine) broke maiden in her second lifetime start, for a $50,0000 tag on grass at Tampa. After a sixth-place efforts and a fourth, she began working her way back up through the allowance ranks, clearing her NW2L condition on Independence Day this year with an optional-claiming win at Calder in which she had to survive a pair of objections.<br />
<br />
There was an inquiry in Saturday's race, too, but it was against second-place finisher <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/timezone" target="_blank">Timezone</a> and rider Jose Rodriguez. That pair was taken down to sixth, with 3-year-old <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/wicked+night" target="_blank">Wicked Night</a> moved up to second and 6-year-old stakes veteran <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/brinca4" target="_blank">Brinca</a> inheriting the show finish.<br />
<br />
While all the excitement was taking place in the middle of the track, Prize Doll swept wide under Manoel Cruz and took charge at the eighth pole. Prize Doll finished the mile on grass in 1:36.22, winning by a length and a quarter over Timezone but another 2 1/2 ahead of the pair who would be moved up when that filly was DQ'ed.<br />
<br />
Prize Doll was bred in New York by the aforementioned Seltzer and 1970s teen idol David Cassidy, who is no longer an owner per the recent race charts. I recommended her as Hip 970 from the Ocala April sale in 2010, where she failed to meet reserve with a high bid of only $17,000. With three wins a second and a third from nine starts, she has now earned $59,645. She also extends the black-type history of her female family; her dam wasn't just a minor stakes winner in New York, but was a half-sister to three other stakes winners, including four-time stakes winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/half+heaven" target="_blank">HALF HEAVEN</a></b> ($435,526), two-time turf stakes winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/love+cove" target="_blank">LOVE COVE</a></b> ($396,739) and Black Eyed Susan S.-G2 winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sweet+vendetta" target="_blank">SWEET VENDETTA</a></b> ($224,596), all of whom were bred or co-bred by Cassidy.<br />
<br />
With that kind of family, decent looks at a 10.2 breeze, I questioned the sanity of buyers who allowed her to pass through the ring without selling back in April 2010. Still do.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the last time race fans saw Gourmet Dinner in a winner's circle was in the moments after the 2010 Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, where he shocked the field (but not so much me) at 20/1 to collect his fourth win -- three of them in stakes company -- as a juvenile. The son of Trippi was rock-solid as a 2-year-old winning his first three starts, two of them Florida Stallion Series stakes races, before getting derailed in the $400,000 Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes by another of my sales selections, the $21,000-bought <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/reprized+halo" target="_blank">REPRIZED HALO</a></b>, who himself would eventually win another stakes race and has banked $354,660 from 35 starts.<br />
<br />
It isn't that Gourmet Dinner hasn't been competitive since -- he has, when he was healthy. He finished his juvenile campaign with a ship to California, where he was beaten a head for third place by <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/clubhouse+ride" target="_blank">Clubhouse Ride</a> (behind <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/comma+to+the+top" target="_blank">Comma to the Top</a> and <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/j+ps+gusto" target="_blank">J P's Gusto</a>) in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. As a 3-year-old, Gourmet Dinner was very much on the Kentucky Derby trail (despite a pedigree that to me suggests a miler), finishing third behind <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/dialed+in2" target="_blank">Dialed In</a> (beaten a head by <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sweet+ducky" target="_blank">Sweet Ducky</a> for second) in the Grade 3 Holy Bull and second by two lengths to <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/soldat6" target="_blank">Soldat</a> in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.<br />
<br />
But an injury that took him off the Derby Trail derailed him for a full year. Gourmet Dinner returned at Gulfstream in February 2012 and failed to hit the board in two straight starts before finishing third on grass in the Elkwood Stakes at Monmouth on May 19. Another couple of turf tries resulted in poor finishes (ninth in the Colonial Turf Cup and seven in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes at Belmont), so back to the main track -- and the winner's circle -- Gourmet Dinner went with Sunday's Majestic Light Stakes score at Monmouth.<br />
<br />
Javier Castellano rated Gourmet Dinner in next-to-last of seven for much of the race and the horse responded in the stretch, out-gaming three-time stakes winner <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/ponzi+scheme" target="_blank">Ponzi Scheme</a> to win by a neck. <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/small+town+talk" target="_blank">Small Town Talk</a> was third, with 3/2 race favorite <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/brujo+de+olleros2" target="_blank">Brujo de Olleros(BRZ)</a>, champion miler in Uruguay, relegated to fourth.<br />
<br />
The win in the $100,000 race was Gourmet Dinner's fifth from 14 lifetime starts, and the earnings pushed his career bankroll to $1,067,277. That's a pretty tidy sum for a horse whose connections, William J. Terrill's Our Sugar Bear Stable, effectively bought him for about $20,000 as Hip 277 at OBS April 2010, where the horse sold for $40K (roughly half of which Terrill got to keep) to dissolve the breeding partnership between Terrill and Ocala Stud.<br />
<br />
G3 winner Gourmet Dinner was one of three close family members I recommended from that sale, and all went on to be black-type horses. His dam, Potluck Dinner, was a half-sister to Almost Aprom Queen, who was the dam of recommended Hip 726 <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/rigoletta4" target="_blank">RIGOLETTA</a></b>, a daughter of Concerto who would sell for just $35,000 a few months before gutting-out a Grade 1 win over Tell a Kelly in the Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood Park and retiring after just six starts with $184,070 in the bank. Their dams were also half-sisters (all out of the Who's For Dinner mare Romantic Dinner) to the filly <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/decennial2" target="_blank">Decennial</a></b>, another Trippi foal, who sold for only $26,000 as Hip 349, but has won five of 12 lifetime, placed among turf stakes company at Belmont Park, and earned $129,977.<br />
<br />
That's three horses, 12 wins in 30 starts, G1 and G3 scores, three additional stakes wins, six additional stakes places (three graded) and nearly $1.4 million in earnings for a combined purchase price of $101,000.<br />
<br />
It's been awhile since I've updated the sales class; life from time to time has gotten in the way. But armed with the knowledge that a horse I thought was unraced, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/wild+shuffle" target="_blank">Wild Shuffle</a> (Hennessy-Shuffle Again, by Wild Again), has turned up a winner in Trinidad, and adding a couple of other new winners, the class now boasts 138 winners worldwide. That means out of the 187 recommended prospects, 176 have raced (94.1 percent) and 73.8 percent are winners.<br />
<br />
The recommendations have made 2,163 worldwide starts, winning 305 races (14.1 percent), finishing second 358 times (16.6 percent) and third on 267 occasions (12.3 percent "shows," 43 percent total "in the money"). They have earned $9,666,381 for average earnings per starter of $55,875.03 and average earnings per start of $4,468.97.<br />
<br />
Those would be pretty good numbers anyway, but considering bargain-hunting is my typical style and my average sales selection sold for barely $36,000 -- a full $20K or so less than the average 2-year-old of 2010, even including minor sales like primarily state-bred sales in Indiana and Louisiana -- I think the figures look particularly good and the recommendations on the whole pretty sharp. The class drew bids (sold or RNA) of $6,446,900 at the sales and should soon top $10 million in earnings; a pretty good return on investment for a game in which it's widely accepted that only about one in four horses purchased at auction will ever pay for itself. For the record, 97 of "my" 187 have earned more at the track than they cost at the sale; that's 51.9 percent, a number that could still grow a bit.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
The addition of Prize Doll to the ranks of stakes winners brings that total to nine, or 4.8 percent of all selections. That isn't a stellar figure, but it's slightly above the breed average, for a price about 36 percent <i>below the sale average</i>. The class has 24 horses that are stakes-placed-or-better (one non-blacktype) for 12.8 percent -- about 50 percent above the breed average. And there's still time for a handful of these who are coming into their own at age 4.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Just like Prize Doll.</div>
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll down</a> to read up on all 187 of those sales selections.Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-58954137284805210472012-03-21T15:28:00.010-04:002012-03-22T17:07:02.331-04:00Paulick, PETA and racing 'Luck'<p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Ray Paulick has done an admirable job today of </span></span><a href="http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/the-peta-distortion-how-luck-s-cancellation-was-far-from-ethical/" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">trying to separate the truth from the animal-rights movement fiction</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> about the cancellation of HBO's horse racing-based drama "</span></span><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1578887/" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Luck</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">."</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">I was greatly enjoying "Luck." It was the only series on television I faithfully watched every week. I was even further impressed by the dedication to the production and its fans displayed by cast members </span></span><a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0651159/" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">John Ortiz</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> (</span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/johnortiz718" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">@johnortiz718</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">), </span></span><a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm2092835/" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Tom Payne</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> (</span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/justanactor" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">@justanactor</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">) and hall-of-fame jockey </span></span><a href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1230841/" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Gary Stevens</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> (</span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/HRTVGary" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">@HRTVGary</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">), who routinely interacted with viewers and participated in a weekly </span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/search/%23Luckchat" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">#LuckChat</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> on Twitter.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">When news broke that a third horse associated with "Luck" had died at Santa Anita, there was concern among the show's fans that it wouldn't survive the negative publicity. That proved true when public pressure -- largely fueled by People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals -- was apparently too much for HBO to bear. The series was canceled.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Ray has tackled the task of unmasking PETA as one of the least ethical major charities in America. And when it comes to PETA, I'm not certain there </span></span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">could</span></span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> be a less-reputable group in America being treated by the media as though it IS reputable. I spent 20 years as a journalist and have been appalled that the healthy skepticism typically directed toward nearly every source is so often completely absent when reporters speak with PETA. I can only think of two reasons.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">1. PETA is so impassioned in its position and so polished in its theatre that journalists are too readily convinced the vehemence and varnish with which the PETA message is delivered equates to veracity. ("They seem so informed and insistent; it must be true!")</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">2. Journalists have an admirable, but sometimes misguided, commitment to "tell both sides" of the story. That's great when both sides are making potentially valid points. It's a disservice to readers when one side is peddling propaganda that at best is loosely based in truth, at worst is often complete fabrication. When PETA is the first, loudest and most reliable "other opinion" for an animal-related story, it's too easy for a busy (or lazy) journalist to just take PETA's quotes and run with them. </span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">For the record, </span><a href="http://old.nationalreview.com/comment/smith200402100912.asp" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">PETA sneaks around</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">. </span></span><a href="http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?id=7157&t=1" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">PETA twists the truth</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">. </span></span><a href="http://www.arationaladvocate.com/animalrights.htm" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">PETA outright lies</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">. PETA hypocritically scolds people for mistreating animals and "kill" shelters for engaging in euthanasia, while a study of PETA records shows the organization </span><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/documents-peta-kills-more-95-percent-pets-care-042912829.html"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">euthanizes 95 percent of the stray dogs and cats it takes in</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">. In 2011, PETA's Virginia headquarters killed more than 1,900 dogs and cats, finding new homes for only 24. </span><a href="http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=search.summary&orgid=4314"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Charity Navigator shows PETA collecting $35 million in revenues</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> last year and spending 85 percent of that on "programs," but when PETA kills almost every animal that comes into its "care," what sort of "programs" could those be? (Answer: Huge advertising campaigns, publicity stunts, lobbying, hiring staff (including<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Yourofsky" target="new"> convicted eco-felon Gary Yourofsky</a>), euthanasia, <a href="http://www.consumerfreedom.com/2004/01/2339-peta-and-terrorism-the-real-deal/" target="new">financially supporting ecoterrorists like firebomber Rodney Coronado</a>, and staging its "covert investigations" into cruelty wherever it can be found -- or merely imagined.) PETA would rather you or your children die than that your life be saved through </span><a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/print-edition/2011/04/15/peta-blasts-animal-research-at-unc.html?page=all" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">medical research that involved animals</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">.</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Humane treatment of animals is moral and right. Taken to PETA's extremes, the notion becomes insanity. But as Penn & Teller tell us in their own </span></span><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inFtOMx8nDU" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">"Bullshit!" episode exposé of PETA</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">: "In any conflict, the crazier party usually wins ... which is why PETA is doing so well." (LANGUAGE WARNING: Don't view the Penn & Teller link if you have sensitive ears.)</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">The horse racing industry should never do anything -- NOT ONE THING -- merely to appease PETA, and neither should Hollywood. (Fat chance of the latter.) PETA is not a reasonable and grounded critic of the industry; it is not a trustworthy partner in affecting appropriate change. Horse racing, Hollywood, the restaurant business or any animal-ag business trying to work with PETA would be like </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">offering the scorpion a ride across the river on your own back</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">So if change needed to take place on the "Luck" set, or if cancellation was the only option, it should have been for valid reasons far beyond the simple fact that PETA was predictably flipping its collective wig.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Anyone who questions the ability of PETA itself or animal rights activists in general to take extreme positions unfounded in fact -- even sanity -- should read the comments under a story at the Today Show Web site this afternoon. It is being described as "abuse" and the dog "living in hell" for a </span></span><a href="http://todayhealth.today.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/21/10780622-girls-best-friend-is-dog-who-carries-her-oxygen" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">4-year-old goldendoodle to be employed as a service animal</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"> for a 3-year-old girl who must be tethered to oxygen. (The dog carries two bottles in a specially designed vest when the pair go out to play.)</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Needless to say we can't be blind to the racing industry's troubles nor deaf to all criticism. The industry has serious horse-welfare issues that must be addressed.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">But offhand I'd suggest there are four general "camps" when it comes to undertaking, observing and judging this effort. Two of them are serious problems; a third is our primary audience and challenge.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">First, there are racing industry professionals who believe nothing is wrong with the sport. Whether through selfishness or merely wishful thinking, they believe no ban of race-day meds is necessary, no extra effort or thought given to the pursuit of safer racing for the horses. These people are the industry's biggest impediment to necessary progress. Their culture and obstructionism have clearly proven difficult, sometimes impossible, to overcome in the past.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Second, there are the industry professionals and fans who ardently believe in and support horse racing, but who equally believe that the humans involved must make every reasonable effort to protect the equine athletes. If we love and value these animals, we should always treat them accordingly. Good ideas for improving horse welfare will come from this sector; so must the energy and the sheer force of will to achieve them in the face of opposition within the industry itself.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Third, there are PETA and vocal animal rights activists. Frankly, there's nothing racing can do to appease these people. Ever. Regardless what we say or do, they are the antithesis of "preaching to the choir." Our goals as racing's advocates are to give them as little ammunition as possible for their attacks, and to provide accurate information that hopefully keeps this can of mixed nuts from poisoning the fourth group.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">And that fourth group is by far the largest -- those ranging from casual fans to non-fans who are completely disinterested in the sport, but who don't want to see animals abused or needlessly suffer. These people do NOT believe (as PETA founder Ingrid Newkirk once said) that "</span><a href="http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ingrid_Newkirk" target="new"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">a rat is a pig is a dog is a boy</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">." Most of them will eat the surf and turf. They own cats and dogs and hamsters and parakeets. They have their human-animal priorities pretty well in order. And they comprise, I'm guessing, at least 80 percent of everybody.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">Billy Martin once noted that on any baseball team there will be a couple of players who hate you, a couple who would do anything for you, and the rest are undecided.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">"The secret of managing," Martin said, "is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided."</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;"><br /></span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">And in a very real way, that's the secret of managing horse racing's image and trying to reverse the downward trend in its fan-base in the 21st century. Those of us who would do anything for the good of horse racing need to be the agents of progress in the sport and the buffer of truth that separates the vast majority of moderately interested and disinterested observers from the agenda-driven animal rights zealots who won't stop until there's not a single horse left being raced, nor dog carrying oxygen bottles, nor beef placed on a bun.</span></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana; min-height: 16.0px"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, serif;"><br /></span></p> <p style="margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 13.0px Verdana"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:small;">PETA alone will never have the power to shut down horse racing. But a willfully and woefully misinformed general public who are eventually provoked into crying out to everyone from the networks and advertisers that carry and sponsor racing to state legislatures and Congress that can crush us under the weight of government, just might.</span></span></p>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com33tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-45155836952543068212012-03-16T13:52:00.005-04:002012-03-16T15:01:32.104-04:00Graded Earnings: Unfair hype over perceived Derby slight<span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;font-size:11px;"><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I congratulate a writer and race fan I know only as Indulto for inspiring me to post on this blog for the first time since October.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I don't happen to agree with the lengthy first installment of his piece at </span></span><a href="http://www.horseraceinsider.com/"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">HorseRaceInsider</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">, </span></span><a href="http://www.horseraceinsider.com/The-HRI-Readers-Blog/comments/02292012-the-kentucky-derby-grading-the-road-ahead/#comments"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">touting a point system rather than graded earnings to determine Kentucky Derby entry</span></span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">. But his position is well-considered and passionate enough that it stirred me to think and to write, and that in itself makes it of considerable merit.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I just had to say after reading the first installment (Part 2 is coming today), I'm not thrilled with the notion of a points system.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Almost everyone who follows horse racing would agree there are concerns with using graded earnings to determine Derby entry, so I can't discredit someone for putting serious thought into how those concerns should be addressed. Let's say that right off the top.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Not the least of these problems is "recency;" a horse can be in the Kentucky Derby field largely or almost solely on what he did as a 2-year-old, regardless of his current 3-year-old form. Other complaints center on money earned from turf or synthetic races (which might not be indicative of dirt potential, </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/animal+kingdom"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">ANIMAL KINGDOM</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> and </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/barbaro4"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">BARBARO</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> notwithstanding), and graded earnings collected from sprint races that could permit entry into the Derby by a horse who has shown no ability whatsoever to win beyond, say, 7f or a mile. Then there are, as the writer puts it, these "virtual win-and-you're-in" races such as the Delta Jackpot; so much money riding on one race that if you win it, your horse is a Derby-lock (provided he's healthy) from one victory.</span></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span"></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Points, one proponent of such a system cited by Indulto says, are more "equitable," and they "reward consistency and activity." I'm not sure I can argue. I'm also not sure that I need to.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Whether we're talking earnings or "points," the only way to address most of these concerns is through a weighting system that only gives full credit toward Derby entry for dirt races run, say, at least a mile or a mile and a sixteenth. (Because how many opportunities do early 3-year-olds in the U.S. have to go even 9 furlongs?) ... Oh, and only full credit for races run at 3. Maybe extra-credit for races run in the last month or six weeks before Derby Day. ... And discounted credit on turf and synthetic.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">As HorseRaceInsider John Pricci commented after the post itself, that runs the risk of quickly becoming unwieldy. And, if you're going to do that with points, it could be done with earnings anyway -- say, only half-credit for 2-year-old earnings, etc. -- leaving just one remaining problem: "Virtual win-and-you're-in" races with huge purses; the money itself.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Pricci (who wrote the introduction to Indulto's piece) also suggests in the commentary below that "throwing money at at race might be best for the track," but might not be the best assessment of talent. ... I'm not certain that I agree. Absolutely you'll get some horses running for that dough who don't really belong -- but they won't win it, will they? Not usually.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Money has always been the incentives tracks use to get good horses in their good races, building their brand and turning a listed stake into a graded stake. It's really the only incentive they have. If a horse gets equal points for winning any Grade 3, regardless where he wins it, certainly that would create the sort of playing field that permanently favors the NYRA circuit, Churchill and Keeneland, Gulfstream and the Big 3 in California. Money will always have an appeal, but money with the attached value of Derby passage is what is increasingly bringing VERY good horses to <a href="http://www.deltadowns.com/">Delta Downs</a> for the Jackpot and Princess (the filly version), and might someday bring better and better horses -- and a Grade 3 designation? -- to Oklahoma's nifty </span><a href="http://remingtonpark.com/home.aspx"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Remington Park</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> for a 2-year-old race like the $300,000 Springboard Mile.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The complaint, for those inclined to complain, is that it just doesn't seem fair that while a pair of races might each be a Grade 3, in earnings they are very different. The Delta Jackpot carries a $1 million purse; win it and you're Derby-qualified. ... WAYI, as Indulto abbreviates it -- "Win and You're In." ... Just stay healthy and fit and you'll run for the roses.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">But ultimately THAT'S the single largest factor determining the Derby field: Which horses are healthy and fit on the first Saturday in May.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Are there horses whose connections want them in that get squeezed out? Yes, probably every year.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Are those horses key contenders if ONLY we'd let them in the starting gate? ... I'd venture to say not very often.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I discount completely Indulto's suggestion that </span></span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/drosselmeyer"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">DROSSELMEYER</span></span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> was somehow shortchanged on his chance to be a Triple Crown winner. That's laughable. Drosselmeyer won the Belmont that year, but we've seen several Belmont Stakes winners who were (as Indulto likes to put it) the ULTIMATE "one-hit wonders." </span></span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/jazil2"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">JAZIL</span></span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> and </span></span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/da+tara"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">DA' TARA</span></span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> leap to mind.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">"But wait," the argument would go, "Drosselmeyer backed up his Belmont by winning the Breeders' Cup Classic."</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Um, yeah, as a 4-year-old, nearly 18 months later, not to culminate a 3-year-old campaign that might have made him a 3-year-old champion -- a champion who was screwed out of a chance to run in the Derby by that silly graded-earnings rule.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Drosselmeyer missed the 2010 Derby on graded earnings, so what was the next move by his connections? The Preakness? ... No, they ran in the Grade 2 Dwyer at Belmont (scheduled between the Derby and Preakness). And lost to </span></span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/fly+down"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">FLY DOWN</span></span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> by six lengths.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">That's our poster-boy for a new point system? Our possible missed Triple Crown winner had he only run for the Roses? A horse who couldn't make the Derby on graded earnings; who didn't run in the Preakness, choosing the Dwyer instead; who got BEAT in a seven-horse Dwyer; won the Belmont, but then didn't win again until May of his 4-year-old season in an ungraded stake? ... THAT'S the horse?</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">It's pretty clear I'm not buying.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The Kentucky Derby offers entry to 20 horses. That's a LOT -- too many, some would argue. (And they might contend that's as big a deterrent to a Triple Crown winner as anything; the Derby is overstuffed and to win it takes as much luck as talent.)</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">To have any faith in an argument that richly deserving horses are being left out of that 20-stall Derby gate, I'd have to see who, say, the last three in and the last three out were from the past decade or two, and assess what they did thereafter -- particularly in the Preakness and Belmont. At this stage I simply doubt that a serious Derby (let alone Triple Crown) contender has been excluded from the field based on graded earnings over the past quarter-century. Maybe ever.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Meanwhile, with much gnashing of teeth over big-purse "WAYI" races, what has the effect of those races been on the Derby field ... REALLY?</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">For starters, let's agree that much of nobody is going to want the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner (often 2-year-old champion) excluded from the Derby field if he's sound and fit to run, even if he hasn't amassed a lot of earnings or "points" since. (Regardless that only one prior winner has gone on to actually WIN the Kentucky Derby, </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/street+sense"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">STREET SENSE</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.) ... So it doesn't really matter what the B.C. Juvenile pays; win that and you punch a Derby ticket IF you can stay healthy. Fair enough.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I think the real gripe for someone touting the points system can be narrowly focused on the Delta Jackpot. There simply have to be people all over America -- particularly those who frequent NYRA tracks, California tracks, etc. -- who resent that little backwater bullring offering a ton of money to "buy" a graded stakes race; people who think it's muddying the waters of the Derby field by throwing a life raft of cash to a host of otherwise drowning and undeserving Derby hopefuls.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Let's see about that, because -- for the fear to be realized -- there'd need to be Delta Jackpot-winners and -placers and their dirty money in the Derby field almost every year, robbing a horse like the vaunted Drosselmeyer (who hadn't won above the NW2L condition at the time, mind you) his much-deserved place in the Derby.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Since the Delta Jackpot became a Grade 3 race, here are your in-the-money horses (and big paydays):</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">2011: 1. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sabercat"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">SABERCAT</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 2. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/basmati3"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Basmati</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 3. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/longview+drive"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">LONGVIEW DRIVE</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">2010: 1. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/gourmet+dinner2"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">GOURMET DINNER</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 2. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/decisive+moment"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">DECISIVE MOMENT</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 3. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/clubhouse+ride"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">CLUBHOUSE RIDE</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">2009: 1. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/rule5"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">RULE</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 2. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/uh+oh+bango"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">UH OH BANGO</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 3. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/oak+motte"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">OAK MOTTE</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">2008: 1. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/big+drama"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">BIG DRAMA</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 2. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/west+side+bernie"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">WEST SIDE BERNIE</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 3. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/stimulus+plan"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Stimulus Plan</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">2007: 1. </span><b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/z+humor"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Z HUMOR</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">-DH</span></span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 1. </span><b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/turf+war"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">TURF WAR</span></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">-DH;</span></span></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> 3. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/golden+yank"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">GOLDEN YANK</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">2006: 1. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/birdbirdistheword"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 2. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/pirates+deputy"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">PIRATES DEPUTY</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">; 3. </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/xchanger"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">XCHANGER</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Don't see much "Derby" there. Not of the "Kentucky" variety, anyway.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Obviously the "Jackpot Class of 2011" hasn't played out on the Derby Trail yet. But Sabercat hasn't run since winning the Jackpot (though he IS working) and thus I doubt he'll make the starting gate. Basmati hasn't run since finishing 11th in the Cash Call Futurity and just came back on the work tab; no threat. Longview Drive was third in the G3 Sham, but stubbed his toe in the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn last out, finishing in the triple-dead-heat for sixth (as the favorite in that flight). ... Could still get in, but if he does, he has some work to do, presently standing 30th in graded earnings. So if he hits the board or wins a close-to-the-Derby prep, hasn't Longview Drive earned his ticket?</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">How about prior years?</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The 2010 Jackpot tote produced 14th-place Derby finisher Decisive Moment, but he also finished second in the G3 Spiral as a final Derby prep (beaten only by eventual Derby winner Animal Kingdom) so I'm hard-pressed to consider him undeserving. The other two on the board -- Gourmet Dinner (third in the Holy Bull S.-G3 and second to Soldat in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 at age 3), and Clubhouse Ride (3rd by a head over Gourmet Dinner in the Cashcall Futurity-G1 and second in the G3 Sham at age 3) were both hurt and taken off the Derby trail. But had they made the field, I'd have to think they deserved it.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">(Gourmet Dinner, the faithful of this blog should note, <a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">was one of my 2010 juvenile sales selections</a>.)</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Rule, the 2009 Jackpot winner, was at the top of many Derby contender lists until injury took him off the Trail. Uh Oh Bango was fourth in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby and was declared out with injury for the Kentucky Derby, despite being 21st on the earnings list with a chance to draw in. He's come back as an older horse to win the San Pasqual S.-G2 at Santa Anita and place in three other graded stakes at 4 and 5, suggesting he'd have been perfectly acceptable as a Kentucky Derby starter (and really damned good for an Arizona-bred). ... Third-place Oak Motte didn't run again until July of his 3-year-old season and hasn't won a race since taking a Texas stallion stakes as a 2-year-old, but he didn't steal anybody's Derby bid, either.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The 2008 Jackpot winner, Big Drama, is unquestionably a great horse. He proved not to be a Classic-type (run off his feet by <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/rachel+alexandra"><b>RACHEL ALEXANDRA</b></a> in the 2009 Preakness), but he won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and was champion sprinter as a 4-year-old. He was NOT a Derby starter. ... West Side Bernie was ninth in the 2009 Derby, but had just finished second to a short-priced <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px; "><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/i+want+revenge"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; ">I WANT REVENGE</span></b></a></span> in the Wood Memorial S.-G1 and deserved his chance. Stimulus Plan didn't return to the racetrack after the Jackpot until the midpoint of his 3-year-old campaign and was not on the Derby trail; he has come on as an older horse to be placed in several stakes races, including a pair of G3s at Calder.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">For 2007, dead-heat winner Z Humor finished 14th in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, but while his "Trail" to get there was undistinguished, he did finish fourth in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 and third in the Illinois Derby-G2 in his final two preps, so his entry at Churchill wasn't unfair. The other horse in the dead-heat for first, Turf War, flopped in his Derby preps, ran in the Derby Trial instead of the Derby itself, and never won another race. Golden Yank also sputtered on the Derby Trail and didn't run for the roses, but he has eventually won three stakes races after the Jackpot (including the Oklahoma Derby) and has been graded-placed several times, earning $840K.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The 2006 Jackpot produced a trio of which none made the Derby field, though Xchanger would run eighth in the Preakness. No harm, no foul.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">So I ask, where's the injustice? I can't make a case against any Delta Jackpot podium-finisher who eventually ran in the Derby (at least, not a case that he shouldn't have been one of the TWENTY), and many of those injured and taken off the trail would have been clearly deserving had they been in the Derby, particularly horses like Gourmet Dinner and Rule.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Seriously, if the $1 million Delta Jackpot isn't a consistent source of undeserving Derby starters -- and demonstrably it hasn't been -- what high-purse race COULD be?</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">I'm left to ask, then, whether we're not all bent out of shape about the unfairness of graded earnings, and 2-year-old races, and fat purses, and dirt vs. turf and synth, for little or no considerable reason.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">More than 30,000 thoroughbreds are foaled every spring in the United States. Three years later, the Kentucky Derby tends to be run by the 20 most remotely qualified 3-year-olds who are sound and fit as of the first Saturday in May.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small; line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap; font-family:'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">The brilliant but fragile, precocious, speed-favoring 2-year-olds have fallen by the wayside. So have a litany of seeming favorites from the traditional prep races: </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/eskendereya"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">ESKENDEREYA</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">, the aforementioned I Want Revenge,</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> former 2-year-old champ </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/uncle+mo"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">UNCLE MO</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> and his Wood Memorial vanquisher </span><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/tobys+corner"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">TOBY'S CORNER</span></b></a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"> ... just to name a recent few.</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">Hey, differences of opinion are what MAKES a horse race. Controversy drives many good column-inches of journalism and a few positive changes to any sport.</span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:georgia, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: small;">But I really feel like we're not arguing here about whether a playoff would give us a more accomplished, recognized champion of college football than the BCS provides; we're splitting hairs over whom should be the 68th team in the March Madness field.</span></span></span></div></div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-27117247200574194192011-10-15T12:36:00.005-04:002012-05-30T19:36:32.559-04:00Spring Jump collects second stakes placing<b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/spring+jump" target="new">Spring Jump</a></b> and Fredy Peltroche chased short-price favorite and eventual winner Moonlit Malibu and Travis Dunkelberger all the way around the track but could never quite catch her Friday night as the pair comprised the exacta in the $50,000 HBPA Municipalities Handicap at Charles Town.<div><br /></div><div>Moonlit Malibu won the two-turn, seven furlong test by a length and a half in 1:25.62, her first stakes victory despite hitting the board four times in stakes company at Aqueduct, Belmont, Monmouth and Charles Town. The place-finish was the second among stakes company for Spring Jump, who was second to Red's Round Table in Delaware Park's White Clay Creek Stakes at 2.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/05/seeking-achievers-among-cheaper.html" target="new">I shortlisted Spring Jump</a>, a dark bay filly by Jump Start-Meg's Answer, by West Acre, on a 48-horse list of prospects for a bargain-minded client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training. She sold there for just $19,000 as Hip 234 and now has three wins and four other on-the-board finishes from a dozen starts for $90,843.</div><div><br /></div><div>Spring Jump was bred in Florida by Jeanne H. and Jerry M. Cutrona Sr., is owned by Dorado Circle Stables LLC, and is trained by Flint Stites.</div><div><br /></div><div>You can follow those 48 (28 of whom now are winners, including four stakes-placers), plus the remainder of my 187-horse list of 2-year-old prospects of 2010, <a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">by clicking here</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-63838961702732909482011-10-10T18:53:00.001-04:002011-10-10T18:53:00.368-04:00Notice Served: Signal Alert is back with stakes win<div>After several races in a row of settling for minor shares behind a stablemate, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/signal+alert" target="new">SIGNAL ALERT</a> </b>turned the tables on Readbetweendlines on Sept. 24 at Santa Rosa Park in Trinidad, winning the Gallery Diamond Stakes by a short head.<div><br /></div><div>Signal Alert covered 1,350 meters in 1:20.2 for his fifth win in eight lifetime starts. A track record-holder at Santa Rosa (1,300m in 1:15.90), Signal Alert has now banked about $49,332 in U.S. equivalent.</div><div><br /></div><div>I recommended the horse as Hip 465 at the 2010 Ocala April sale, where he brought $35,000 from Glenn Mendez, trainer for Junior Sammy's Errol Stable. Signal Alert won a juvenile trophy race named in honor of Sammy as a 2-year-old and was third behind multiple-Trinidad and Tobago champion Bruceontheloose and Readbetweendlines in the G2 Santa Rosa Dash earlier this year.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to follow the worldwide exploits</a> of my 187-member juvenile sales-selection class of 2010.</div></div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-6907058751424737302011-10-10T18:46:00.004-04:002011-10-10T18:55:42.934-04:00List of wins declines by one; another post-race DQSo, just this evening I learn that one of my 187-member sales-tip class of 2010 has lost his maiden-breaking victory -- although unlike the last time, I didn't drop him to the ranks of the non-winners.<div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/im+first2" target="new">I'm First</a> (Soto-Ladies First, by El Ragaas) broke maiden on July 7 in the lower claiming ranks on turf at Colonial Downs. He backed up that victory win a win in his next start on July 20, again for a tag at Colonial.</div><div><br /></div><div>Today I find -- after a last-place finish on grass in allowance company at Laurel -- that the horse's record has just one win from 10 starts, rather than two, and his lifetime earnings have been reduced to $8,652. The chart from his formerly maiden-breaking win now states that he was disqualified to 10th and last due to failing a post-race test.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm First is owned by B and B Racing Stable LLC and is trained by Susan S. Cooney.</div><div><br /></div><div>The same thing happened a year ago to <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/benecia3" target="new">Benecia</a>, who broke maiden in September 2010 at Fairplex only to have that win stripped many weeks later, after she'd already run (and placed) among winners. A year later almost to the day, Benecia (re)-cleared that maiden hurdle, right back at the Fairplex meet.</div><div><br /></div><div>When this test came back positive for I'm First, I couldn't exactly say, but he's run three more times among winners after his (apparent) NW2L win July 20 and this is the first I've noticed it.</div><div><br /></div><div>I do understand that testing "A" and "B" samples takes time, but it seems the turnaround on these matters isn't altogether speedy.</div><div><br /></div><div>Makes me wonder if another month from now I'm going to see the horse's other "First" changed to last.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to see the updated race-records of all 187 horses I selected from last year's juvenile sales</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-28812174374338527592011-10-09T18:29:00.004-04:002011-10-09T18:40:27.491-04:00No great shock: Surprise Strike wins at 7/5 oddsIt took him seven starts to break through to the winner's circle, but <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/surprise+strike" target="new">Surprise Strike</a> has now had his picture snapped after two races in a row after winning handily Saturday in allowance company at Finger Lakes.<div><br /></div><div>The Jeremiah Englehart trainee nearly broke his maiden at first asking last year at Presque Isle Downs, then was sent to Woodbine and Saratoga several times before winning his last out back among maiden special weight company at PID. On Saturday, he covered six furlongs in 1:11.34 under the guidance of Wilfredo Rohena to win by an easy 5 3/4 lengths over 6/5 favorite Il Vagabondo in a non-winners of two lifetime test at Finger Lakes. It was another 6 1/4 back to third-place Suave Fox.</div><div><br /></div><div>Surprise Strike was bred in Kentucky by Duzee Stable. He has now earned $68,029 for owner Orlando Dirienzo from eight lifetime starts.</div><div><br /></div><div>I shortlisted the bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Unbridled Femme, by Unbridled, as a Priority 2 prospect for a client seeking a bargain runner out of the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md. The horse failed to sell at a top bid of $34,000 as Hip 380, but he has the look of one that's worth having.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to see all 187 of my 2010 sales selections</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-20667327247771180382011-10-09T17:54:00.007-04:002011-10-10T14:00:06.465-04:00Thursday winners at Laurel, Remington for my 2010 sales-tip class and the same Kentucky breederThe margins were slight, but it's the winning that counts, and a pair of my selected graduates from 2010 juvenile sales made it a 2-for-2 day with victories Thursday at Maryland's Laurel Park and Oklahoma's Remington Park.<div><div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/captain+my+captain4" target="new">Captain My Captain</a> -- a first-out maiden-special winner at Keeneland earlier this year -- finally garnered his second lifetime win from five starts with a gutsy effort Thursday afternoon for a $25,000 tag at Laurel. After sundown, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/dangerous+ghost" target="new">Dangerous Ghost</a> collected her third win from 11 starts in a turf-claimer at Remington for that same tag, $25,000.</div><div><br /></div><div>The winners also were both bred wholly or in part by Kentucky's White Fox Farm.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sent off as the slight favorite at about 6/5, Captain My Captain and rider J.D. Acosta stalked second-favored Leap of Will (3/2) and Kendrick Carmouche through early fractions of 22.52 and 45.91. Captain My Captain was briefly relegated to third place as Houston Bull under Forest Boyce stuck his head in front of the eventual winner in the stretch, but Captain My Captain rallied to beat that rival by a nose, with Leap of Will fading to third in the shadow of the wire.</div><div><br /></div><div>Owned by Dogwood Stable and trained by George Weaver, Captain My Captain was bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, Louis Brooks Ranch, and Serengeti Stable LC, et. al. He's now earned $44,980.</div><div><br /></div><div>I tipped the now-gelded son of Officer-Purer Than Pure, by Turkoman, as Hip 7 at the 2010 OBS February sale, where Dogwood purchased him for $85,000. He still has some work to do in earning that back.</div><div><br /></div><div>Thursday night, a much less expensive filly continued rewarding the owners who invested in her at two different sales last year.</div><div><br /></div><div>Dangerous Ghost and Dean Butler stalked 5/2 favorite Red Lion Heart and Lindey Wade through sharp early fractions of 21.55 and 44.73 on a speed-favoring Remington turf course. The lead pair was briefly joined by Miss Silver Ridge and David Cardoso in mid-stretch, but that one couldn't keep pace. Then Cliff Berry and Just Maid tried to close on the outside, but couldn't quite get there.</div><div><br /></div><div>It was Dangerous Ghost who prevailed between Red Lion Heart and Just Maid, who finished a neck and a head back for the trifecta. Miss Silver Ridge was only another neck back in fourth, with White Chiffon a length back in fifth.</div><div><br /></div><div>Final time for five furlongs on the turf was 57.17.</div><div><br /></div><div>Dangerous Ghost was also bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, giving that breeder a bit of a sales-tip double, as well. She is owned by Al and Bill Ulwelling, the later of whom came down from Minnesota with his wife and kids to see this win and a couple of others at Remington over the weekend. She is trained by Michael Biehler.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Ulwellings bought Dangerous Ghost for $28,000 out of the OBS June sale in 2010, after she was pinhooked back into that auction by Nickajack Farms, which bought her for a mere $12,000 as Hip 1205 at OBS April. I tipped her from that April sale and have to say that she's worked out well for all involved. The April buyer flipped her for $28,000 two months after buying her for $12,000, and the Ulwellings have three win photos (races on fast dirt, mud and turf), three seconds and a third with $41,115 in earnings from 11 starts.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll </a>to view the updated statistics of all 187 sales selections I made from 2010.</div></div></div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-72551500288056775572011-10-03T20:59:00.004-04:002011-10-03T21:23:47.964-04:00Code Dancer hustles to third lifetime winUnder pressure almost throughout, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/code+dancer" target="new">Code Dancer</a> didn't wilt in the shadow of the wire at Presque Isle Downs Friday night, hanging on for a neck victory that was his third lifetime win from eight starts.<div><br /></div><div>Sent off as the narrow 7/2 favorite under Arienne Cox, Code Dancer set opening fractions of 22.84 and 45.94 with essentially the co-favorite Indian Empire and Scott Spieth (also about 7/2) running right at his throat latch. As 7.5/1 longer-shot Young Troubador closed under Ronald Allen Jr., Indian Empire was steadied between his rivals and settled for third with the closer missing by a neck to Code Dancer.</div><div><br /></div><div>The winner was bred in Florida by Brambly Lane Farm. He is owned and trained by Clyde D. Rice. The horse scored for a $40,000 tag in his debut at Presque Isle at 2 and has won two of his last three starts as a 3-year-old, this time for a $7,500 tag, earning a total of $38,332.</div><div><br /></div><div>I tipped the bay gelding by Omega Code-Jocey's Dance, by Seattle Dancer, out of last year's Ocala April sale, where he failed to meet reserve as Hip 1187 on a meager bid of $13,000. The horse breezed a fleet 21.1 and came "pre-gelded to save you the trouble," I wrote. His female family has shown the kind of durability the breed could use these days, with his dam being half-sister to 21-victory millionaire <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/grecian+flight" target="new">GRECIAN FLIGHT</a></b> (Acorn S.-G1), 16-race winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/grecian+comedy" target="new">GRECIAN COMEDY</a></b> (granddam of <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/bullsbay" target="new">BULLSBAY</a></b>-G1) and 16-time winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/evzone" target="new">EVZONE</a></b>.</div><div><br /></div><div>"Businesslike racetrack family," I concluded.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to follow the exploits of all 187 of my 2010 juvenile sales selections</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-33297459890176974372011-10-03T20:16:00.003-04:002011-10-03T20:58:58.629-04:00Maiden has last word at Monmouth<a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/after+words" target="new">After Words</a> didn't disappoint as the favorite in the mud at Monmouth Saturday, assuming the lead after a half run in 46.32 and holding off second-favored Delicate Genius in the stretch to break her maiden by a length and a quarter.<div><br /></div><div>Final time for a muddy six furlongs by $10,000 maiden-claimers was 1:12.78. Pedro Cotto Jr. was the winning pilot for owner Nick of Time Stable and trainer Teresa Pompay. The filly has a win and three other in-the-money finishes from six lifetime starts for $23,410.</div><div><br /></div><div>After Words was bred in Maryland by Bowman & Higgins Stable, Thomas Sutton and Anthony W. Dutrow. I pegged the dark bay daughter of Kafwain-Potomac Bend, by Polish Numbers as a Priority 3 prospect on a 48-horse shortlist for a bargain-minded client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. She failed to sell there as Hip 281 when the $30,000 top bid failed to meet consignor Cary Frommer's reserve price.</div><div><br /></div><div>I liked that the filly breezed a fairly quick (for this sale) 10.4 and showed good extension in her stride. She also had two multiple-winners and a juvenile stakes-placer (who never broke maiden) among her elder siblings -- another has broken maiden since -- and her dam was a G3 winner. I was less pleased by what I thought were longer and more upright pasterns, hence the relative downgrade to Priority 3.</div><div><br /></div><div>With the victory, After Words becomes the 28th maiden-breaker from that 48-horse EASMAY shortlist; that's 58.3 percent winners from a group of prospects that sold for an average of less than $24,000 -- a price about half of the sale average.</div><div><br /></div><div>She is the 113th to break maiden from my overall list of 187 juvenile sales prospects of 2010. That pushes the maiden-breaker mark above 60 percent overall.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to follow the updated stats</a> of all 187 horses.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-31094124133014147362011-09-30T18:39:00.004-04:002011-09-30T19:26:14.598-04:00Tricky Break new winner in head-knocker at CalderWhen a bay son of Sunday Break crossed the wire first by a neck in Race 3 at Calder Thursday, there was nothing "tricky" about it. The effort was sheer willpower.<div><br /></div><div>That horse, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/tricky+break" target="new">Tricky Break</a>, has apparently overcome a lot to reach the winner's circle for the first time in his life. The latest test was the final sixteenth of that $16,000 maiden-claiming event on Thursday afternoon, when favored Country Home came charging down the lane and erased a length-and-a-half deficit, but Tricky Break refused to lose.</div><div><br /></div><div>I tipped Tricky Break out of last year's OBS April sale, when he was bought by Robert Smith -- who trains him today -- for a mere $6,500. Through a seemingly well-informed grapevine I learned that the horse had a physical issue that needed addressing and would keep him from being resold in this case and returned to New York, the state of his foaling.</div><div><br /></div><div>Tricky Break went to the track in Florida instead and his 2-year-old and early 3-year-old results were poor -- seven starts at Calder and Tampa, no finish better than fifth.</div><div><br /></div><div>Laid-off from February to July this year, I began to doubt that Tricky Break would return to the races at all, let alone crack the ranks of the winners. But he made a comeback on grass at Colonial Downs, where under the care of conditioner Patrick Schmid and running in cheap claiming company, he hit the board in his third start off the layoff (and first in 10 lifetime starts), finishing third.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sent back to Calder and the barn of Smith, Tricky Break finished a clear-cut second on Sept. 1, then second again by only a half (with a nose advantage over third in a three-horse photo) in a determined performance at the $12,500 level on Sept. 15.</div><div><br /></div><div>Maybe there was hope after all.</div><div><br /></div><div>Smith certainly thought so, and stepped the gelding up in class again Thursday, all the way to the $16,000 level, (relative) heights Tricky Break hadn't seen since his debut at "Maiden 20" on Oct. 17, 2010.</div><div><br /></div><div>The horse didn't let him (or me) down.</div><div><br /></div><div>Tricky Break and rider David Boraco pressed leader Sir Philip in the early going, took over the lead after a half-mile, then slogged home in the rain over a sealed track, refusing to relinquish the advantage although Country Home (himself now second three times in a row) had reduced the margin to all but nothing. Tricky Break stopped the timer in 1:42.65 for a mile, won by a neck, and made me almost as proud as some of the stakes winners on my sales-tip list.</div><div><br /></div><div>Just as some horses might have done on Thursday when the favorite came charging at them in the stretch, this horse could have quit a long time ago, but he didn't.</div><div><br /></div><div>For the record, Tricky Break was (as aforementioned) bred in the state of New York, by Thomas-Narlinger LLC and Dennis Repp. His ownership at present is listed as "Smith, Drake and George, Richard Kingston." He has earned $13,714 from a win, two places and a show in 13 lifetime starts.</div><div><br /></div><div>I selected Tricky Break from that Ocala sale because I was pretty sure he would be inexpensive (I was right about that beyond doubt) and equally certain he'd make a racehorse someday, for somebody. After all, his dam, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/tricky+move" target="new">TRICKY MOVE</a></b> (Tricky Creek-Sensitive Annie, by Sensitive Prince), won a pair of stakes races and earned $112,956. And, she's produced several winners, including the curious stakes pair <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/multiplication2" target="new">MULTIPLICATION</a></b> (who died of a heart attack while breezing shortly after winning the Mike Lee Stakes at Belmont in his fourth lifetime start) and <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sneakin+up2" target="new">SNEAKIN UP</a></b> (who broke maiden in a stakes race at 2 and hasn't won since, with 24 lifetime tries).</div><div><br /></div><div>I'd still like to see Tricky Break move back home to New York, because his earnings potential should be higher among state-breds in that lucrative jurisdiction. But he's already added a win (and a big grin) to my sales-pick list by breaking through, even if it was among fairly modest company at Calder.</div><div><br /></div><div>With the victory, Tricky Break becomes the 112th winner among my 187 juvenile sales selections of 2010; that's precariously close to six-in-ten at 59.9 percent.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to see the stats of all 187, plus a few horses I went against</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-89453123388755246312011-09-28T19:07:00.001-04:002011-09-28T19:07:00.059-04:00Bessie M gets elusive stakes trophyTwo starts after settling for second by a desperate head in stakes company at Calder Race Course, <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/bessie+m3">BESSIE M</a></b> assured her name will appear in all-caps on catalog pages for decades to come by taking the Dolly Jo Stakes at Calder on Sunday by a comfortable 2 1/4 lengths.<div><br /></div><div>The 3-year-old filly by Medallist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat, has proved to be a fantastic claim by Platinum Equestrian Corp. and trainer Antonio Sano. After taking her for $25,000 from a NW2L claiming event at Gulfstream in January, Bessie M's new connections have never seen her finish off the board. After a third and a second-place finish, she posted back-to-back wins for them at Calder in April and May, then hit the board in the Regal Gal Stakes (third) and Leave Me Alone Stakes (second a head) before winning in optional-claiming company her last out at Calder, on Aug. 20.</div><div><br /></div><div>On Sunday, Bessie M and Daniel Centeno rated in fifth, 6 1/2 lengths off a blistering 21.13 opening quarter set by Orlando Bocachica and Afleet Lass, then blew by the rest of the field and wore down the game leader in the stretch to draw clear by the wire. Max Speed and Juan Leyva finished third by 6 1/4 lengths. Final time for six furlongs was 1:10.81.</div><div><br /></div><div>Bessie M was bred in Maryland by Mr. & Mrs. Charles McGinnes, and I had hoped her connections might prep her for the $100,000 Maryland Million Distaff at seven furlongs this coming weekend at Laurel. No complaints, however, about her scoring a stakes win, wherever it might be.</div><div><br /></div><div>I shortlisted Bessie M as a Priority 2 prospect for a bargain-seeking client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. She sold to William H. Harris for $35,000 as Hip 59 and presented him with a win photo from a dead-heat victory at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old. Harris would lose her on that January day at Gulfstream for $25,000, and Platinum Equestrian has been well-rewarded for its claim ever since.</div><div><br /></div><div>I actually questioned the price Harris paid at the sale, but then again, we were there looking to buy a horse for even less than $35,000 -- which was already at least 25 percent below the sale average. But I stated here that: "This girl oughta be a decent racehorse for someone (though) she only rated Priority 2 status for me primarily because of the very slow start by her sophomore sire, who has just 10 winners so far from his freshman crop of 59 foals. ... (It) was hard to deny the fleetness of her 22 2/5 quarter over a slow track."</div><div><br /></div><div>With the stakes score, Bessie M becomes the first stakes-winner from that bargain-basement list of 48 horses, whose average bid (sold or RNA) at the sale was under $24,000 and less than half the sale average. She is among four horses stakes-placed or better from that group of 48.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/bibblesman">Bibblesman</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;">, who sold for </span></b>$22,000 as Hip 337, has two wins and placed second in the Peppy Addy Stakes at Parx for $90,860. <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/spring+jump">Spring Jump</a></b>, a $19,000 purchase as Hip 234, is 3-for-11 with a second-place finish in the White Clay Creek Stakes at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old, for $80,700.</div><div><br /></div><div>The real tragedy from the group is <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/rough+sailing">Rough Sailing</a></b>, a $40,000 buy as Hip 250, who broke maiden on Arlington's grass at first asking and was second in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 for $37,534, but slipped entering the first turn of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was euthanized after breaking his shoulder in the fall.</div><div><br /></div><div>Of the 48 bargain prospects, there are 43 starters (89.6 percent), 25 winners (52.1 percent) and 13 multiple-winners (27.1 percent).</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to follow all 187 sales selections, plus a few I went against</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-66307747628714015602011-09-27T18:50:00.003-04:002011-09-27T19:07:19.229-04:00Gelding with fine family wins in style at SeoulWhen Hidden Lake Farm LLC and Gary F. Mottola bred <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/shannon+memories" target="new">Shannon Memories</a> in New York, they probably had visions of the blue-blood colt drawing off to win in the stretch at Belmont Park or Saratoga.<div><br /></div><div>Seoul, Korea, probably never crossed their minds.</div><div><br /></div><div>But on Sunday at Seoul, the now-gelded chestnut son of Yes It's True-Charleston, by High Yield, trained by Hong Dae You and ridden by Park Tae Jong, hammered a Class IV field by eight lengths to clear the maiden hurdle in his fourth lifetime start. He's earned about $22,234 since being shipped to Korea in October at age 2 after failing to sell on a $32,000 top bid at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training at Timonium, Md.</div><div><br /></div><div>I shortlisted the prospect at that May Maryland sale on a 48-horse list prepared for a bargain-seeking client. I listed Hip 66, the Yes It's True-Charleston colt, as a Priority 2 prospect based on his dam's status as a half-sister to G3 millionaire <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/west+virginia3" target="new">WEST VIRGINIA</a></b>, and despite a topline that dipped rather more than I'd like and a 23-flat breeze that wasn't awe-inspiring.</div><div><br /></div><div>Despite some flaws, the horse was athletic, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the winner's circle again at Seoul, particularly after an eight-length score.</div><div><br /></div><div>With the win, Shannon Memories becomes the 111th prospect to break maiden from the 187 I recommended on this blog from selected 2-year-old sales of 2010. That's 59.4 percent.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll to view their updated stats</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-20042346815469049142011-09-26T18:54:00.006-04:002011-09-27T18:49:58.284-04:00'Silver' filly 'Speeds' to first win through Laurel muck<a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/silver+speed2" target="new">Silver Speed</a> overcame a sloppy track and a slow early pace that might have discouraged many closers to log her first lifetime win in the maiden-claiming ranks on Saturday at Laurel Park.<div><br /></div><div>Next Level and rider Gerry Bacchas had it all their way in the early going, building a five-length margin through an opening quarter run in 24.33 and extending the advantage to seven lengths over Silver Speed and Sarah Rook in a half-mile covered in 48.17.</div><div><br /></div><div>Though Silver Speed took the four-path on the turn for home and never switched from her left lead in the stretch, she not only overtook a tiring Next Level but maintained enough momentum to hold off 5/2 shot All About Her and Richard Monterrey by a half-length at the wire. Race-favorite Nightswimming, also sent off at about 5/2, finished fourth under Malcom Franklin. Final time for the muddy mile was 1:41.22.</div><div><br /></div><div>Silver Speed, a gray or roan filly by Suave out of the Miesque's Son mare Boggs Eyes was bred in New York (where she's never run) by Hidden Point Farm Inc. She is owned by Glen Mar LLC and trained by Jessica Campitelli. With her win for a $16,000 tag on Saturday, the filly has a victory and a second-place finish from five lifetime starts for $13,674.</div><div><br /></div><div>I recommended Silver Speed prior to her selling for $60,000 as Hip 812 at the 2010 OBS April sale of 2-year-olds in training. I thought the New York-bred "made 33 3/5 for three furlongs look easy, convincing me to ignore the freshman sire." Her dam was a minor Arlington stakes winner who produced a stakes-placer in Behavioral Finance, and the second dam won 10 times, four in stakes company, and produced 15-win stakes-mare <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/torch" target="new">TORCH</a></b>, in turn dam of 20-race winner <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/morines+victory" target="new">MORINE'S VICTORY</a></b>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Silver Speed became the 110th runner to break maiden off my 187-horse list of 2010 juvenile prospects; that was (temporarily) 58.8 percent of all to race.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll to see their updated stats</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-34644051702426450342011-09-26T18:27:00.005-04:002011-09-26T18:49:18.627-04:00A year later, Benecia wins again, for the first timeA filly who in her second lifetime start <a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/09/benecia-sparks-celebration-of-big-3-0.html">became the 30th</a> of my 187 juvenile sales selections to break her maiden -- <a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/12/drat-winners-list-now-minus-1.html">but lost the win to a post-race drug screen</a> -- has done so again nearly a year later, at the scene of her prior victory.<div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/benecia3" target="new">Benecia</a> is now officially (barring another drug screen, I suppose), the 109th winner of that 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010. She scored last Thursday (Sept. 22, 2011) at Fairplex for the same connections that put her in the winner's circle there on Sept. 26, 2010, trainer Michael Pender, jockey Martin Pedroza and owners Robin Christensen, Michael Hudok, Jim Murray and MVP Racing Stable.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sent off as the second-favorite Thursday at about 7/5 odds, Benecia "inhaled" race-favorite and leader Miss Mystic in the stretch to win by a widening 3 1/2 lengths. Energia Solaria at 47/1 sneaked into the exacta as the even-money favorite faded. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on the bullring was 1:20.34.</div><div><br /></div><div>Benecia (More Than Ready-Empty Portrait, by Coronado's Quest) was bred in Kentucky by Fares Farms LLC. She has now posted a win and a third-place finish (in starter-allowance company before being stripped of her prior victory) from eight starts, for $15,070.</div><div><br /></div><div>I tabbed the dark bay filly as one of my top, mostly bargain-minded prospects from Ocala's April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where she sold for $30,000 as Hip 998. "This filly breezed 10.2 and looked pretty fair doing it," I wrote then. Her dam "wasn't much of a runner," but her second dam was the G3-winning <b>ILLERIA</b> who produced seven stakes horses, including, well, <b>INCLUDE</b>, <b>MAGIC BROAD</b>, <b>ENCAUSTIC</b>, <b>MAGICAL BROAD</b>, <b>Implicit</b>, <b>Loaded Brush</b> and <b>Invent</b>.</div><div><br /></div><div>With the 109th winner, the 187-member sales class boasted 58.3 percent winners. But that number soon would change -- this time for the better.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here to see them all</a>. </div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-41353641898555060422011-09-20T19:21:00.004-04:002011-09-20T20:02:32.206-04:00Lady's early speed 'Rewarded' with third victory<a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/reward+the+lady" target="new">Reward the Lady</a> grabbed the race by the throat and refused to let go Tuesday night at Presque Isle Downs, leading gate to wire on her way to a third lifetime victory.<div><br /></div><div>Sent off as the second favorite at about 7/2 odds, the 3-year-old filly bolted to an early lead under Scott Spieth and got away with sensible fractions of 23.34 and 46.63, chased a length-and-a-half back by 4/5 favorite Draw a Blank, piloted by Robert Allen Jr. As the field straightened for home, Reward the Lady had plenty in reserve to win by a driving 2 1/4 lengths over late-closing 9/1 shot Lady in the Park, with Doublenodouble taking third by a neck over the short-price favorite.</div><div><br /></div><div>Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta was 1:18.33.</div><div><br /></div><div>Reward the Lady (Grand Reward-You're a Lady, by Youmadeyourpoint) was bred in Pennsylvania by E&D Enterprises and Grand Reward Syndicate. She is owned by Touchdown Stable and trained by J. Michael Rogers.</div><div><br /></div><div>I shortlisted the dark bay or brown filly on a 48-horse chart of prospects for a bargain-minded client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. Her dam won a dozen races for about $180,000, including the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper and had produced several winners. Though she wasn't the strongest horse on my list conformationally (hence her "Priority 4" status), Reward the Lady had no major flaws, she breezed a credible 10.4 over a slow Timonium track, and she is from the female family of G3 winner <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/wheres+taylor" target="new"><b>WHERE'S TAYLOR</b></a> and G1 record-setter <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/pass+the+line" target="new">PASS THE LINE</a></b>.</div><div><br /></div><div>She sold for just $6,000 as the first horse through the ring, Hip 1. With her win Tuesday night, Reward the Lady has three wins, two places and a show from 10 starts for $56,050.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll down</a> to see the records of all 187 sales selections I made in 2010.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-56022625726241762092011-09-18T17:47:00.005-04:002011-09-18T18:22:25.655-04:00Florida filly earns black type at BelmontWhen I used this blog to tip a trio horses from the same (very) immediate family from last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, I expected all three to be successful racehorses. That all are now stakes horses is icing on the cake.<div><br /></div><div>On Sunday at Belmont Park, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/decennial2" target="new"><b>Decennial</b></a> was second-favored at 3-1 had a chance to win the Queen Tutta Stakes on the turf, but was out-kicked in the stretch and settled for third place. It was the Florida-bred filly's sixth on-the-board finish in seven starts on New York lawns, and her first among stakes company. She finished off the board in a stakes race at Saratoga her last out.</div><div><br /></div><div>Decennial and Ramon Dominguez were well-positioned to win on Sunday, but 5-1 In Step with Jose Lezcano was the best finisher, with 10.5-1 Button Girl and Cornelio Velasquez 3 1/4 behind her and only a neck ahead of Decennial in third. Favored Cascadilla Falls (2-1) could only manage sixth place. Final time for seven furlongs on turf was 1:21.34.</div><div><br /></div><div>Decennial is owned by Blue Devil Racing Stable and trained by Carlos F. Martin. She was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud. With four wins and two shows from eight starts, all at age 3, (her only dirt effort was unplaced), Decennial has earned $87,500.</div><div><br /></div><div>I tipped the chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner, as Hip 349 at OBS April, where she sold for just $26,000 despite a 22-flat quarter and her status as a half-sister to stakes winners <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sea+of+green" target="new">SEA OF GREEN</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/lady+gin" target="new">LADY GIN</a></b>.</div><div><br /></div><div>From that same sale I also selected <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/rigoletta4" target="new"><b>RIGOLETTA</b></a> (who sold for $35,000 went on to win the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at 2 and earn $184,070) and <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/gourmet+dinner2" target="new">GOURMET DINNER</a></b> (a $40,000 sale who has three stakes wins including the Delta Downs Jackpot-G3 and has banked $989,660).</div><div><br /></div><div>The dams of those two -- Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook, in the first case and Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus, in the latter -- are half-sisters to Decennial. The Sunday stakes-placer and her "nephew," Gourmet Dinner, are bred on the same cross, both being sired by Trippi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The family trio were purchased for a combined $105,000 and now have 10 wins (four in stakes, including a G1 and a G3), more than $1.25 million in earnings, and two solid broodmare prospects among them.</div><div><br /></div><div>Decennial becomes the 21st horse stakes-placed or better (20 in black-type races) from my 187-member class of 2010 sales prospect; that's 11.2 percent.</div><div><br /></div><div>I hope the connections of Decennial keep in mind that she's a Florida-bred and might find some opportunities for her back home in the Sunshine State over the winter.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-88774297570026275002011-09-18T16:56:00.006-04:002011-09-18T17:46:21.663-04:00First turf, first win: Ravello Storm follows family leadAfter two unplaced efforts on dirt at Delaware Park, the connections of <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/ravello+storm" target="new">Ravello Storm</a> sent him to Belmont Park and a date with $20,000 maiden-claimers on the grass.<div><br /></div><div>Sent off at 11-1, the horse won in good style, and perhaps should have been expected to. After all, the son of Stormy Atlantic-Wave On, by Caveat, had five prior turf winners among his elder siblings, including Colonial Turf Cup-G3 and Poker S.-G3 victor <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sailors+cap" target="new">SAILOR'S CAP</a> </b>and La Habra Stakes-placed <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/royal+wave2" target="new">Royal Wave</a></b>. (Sailor's Cap was one of my favored horses of the past few years, and tragically died of Colitis-X as a 4-year-old.)</div><div><br /></div><div>On Saturday at Belmont, Ravello Storm was treated by bettors like an outsider in a field that appeared to be wide-open. But unlike his dirt efforts, when Ravello Storm was never really in contention, on this day he bolted to the lead straight from the gate beneath Cornelio Velasquez. Tracked by 5/2 favorite Knockout through tepid opening fractions of 26.25 and 48.41.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ravello Storm briefly surrendered the lead to 29-1 long-shot Pernice after a quickened six furlongs run in 1:09.90, disposed of that rival by the top of the stretch, then found another gear to discourage all others. He won in 1:44.78 for a mile and a sixteenth, 2 3/4 lengths clear of of Allen's Star.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ravello Storm is owned by Lee Lewis and trained by Mark Hennig. He was bred in Kentucky by Lanni Bloodstock LLC, John Zolezzi, Westport Management and J. Smithwick. With a win from three starts, he has earned $13,330.</div><div><br /></div><div>I shortlisted Ravello Storm as a Priority 1 horse when seeking bargain-minded prospects for a client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. The horse breezed 11-flat at a sale where that was at least average, and my biggest complaint about him upon visual inspection at the barn was that he just didn't seem very alert. Run through the ring as Hip 388, the dark bay colt didn't meet his reserve price, but sold privately before leaving the grounds for a reported $35,000.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ravello Storm becomes the 108th prospect to break maiden from my 187-horse list of 2-year-old prospects in 2010. That's 57.8 percent. Those Maryland prospects from which Ravello Storm emerged as a group cost (or were RNAs) for about half the price of the sales average, but 42 have now started (87.5 percent) and he is the 26th to win (54.2 percent of all EASMAY selections, 61.9 percent of those to race).</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-89016504557805558092011-09-18T16:10:00.003-04:002011-09-18T16:53:49.738-04:00Cat finally 'Claws' her way to victoryWhen <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/cat+has+claws" target="new">Cat Has Claws</a> missed second by a neck in her debut at age 2, about four lengths back from victory among special weights at Arlington, I figured it was only a matter of time before she broke her maiden. And I suppose I was right.<div><br /></div><div>The Illinois-bred filly who I tipped on this blog as a 2-year-old prospect at the sales didn't start again until she was 3. A fourth-place finish among special weights in June sent her into maiden-claiming company. In her second start for a tag, Cat Has Claws finished third again, this time beaten a neck and a nose by Hawk's Girl and Lindseytothemax. She also finished fourth in her most recent start, behind another sales selection of mine, Sea Why.</div><div><br /></div><div>On Saturday, the filly who likes to get her photo snapped for the placing judges, finally had her picture taken in the winner's circle. Again, after a photo-finish was sorted out for the order of finish.</div><div><br /></div><div>Sent off (to my great surprise) as the 4/5 favorite, Cat Has Claws was the only filly able to close into the glacial pace set by 34-1 long-shot Bob's Hilda, who got away to a six-length lead despite meandering around the Arlington Park Polytrack in 23.45 and 47.58. Cat Has Claws got up by a nose after a long and determined drive under Jesus Castanon. Lindseytothemax was another three-quarters back in third.</div><div><br /></div><div>Cat Has Claws is owned by Joseph W. and Betty Woit, and trained by Roger Brueggemann. The bay filly by Harlan's Holiday-Summertime Blues, by Chimes Band, was bred in Illinois by Carson Springs Farm and Scott Goldsher. With a win and two shows from six starts, she has now earned $14,523.</div><div><br /></div><div>I selected Cat Has Claws as Hip 517 from the 2010 Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. The filly breezed 10.1 and two of her three elder siblings were solid performers: <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/chillin+villain" target="new"><b>Chillin Villian</b></a> (Good and Tough) has now won seven of 57 and was stakes-placed among IL-breds at 2 for $172,231; <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/jitterbug+blues" target="new"><b>Jitterburg Blues</b></a> has five wins and 10 seconds from 24 lifetime starts and hit the board in IL-bred stakes company last year at age 5, for $212,741. Though only a modest winner of two races from nine starts, Summertime Blues was a half-sister to nine-time stakes-winner <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/tic+n+tin" target="new"><b>TIC N TIN</b></a> ($771,570) and two-time Illinois-bred champion <b><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/pretty+jenny" target="new">PRETTY JENNY</a></b> ($534,262).</div><div><br /></div><div>Cat Has Claws failed to sell at OBSAPR when the top bid of $37,000 failed to meet the reserve price set by consignor Wavertree Stables.</div><div><br /></div><div>With her win Saturday, Cat Has Claws became the 107th prospect to break maiden worldwide from my 187-horse list of sales tips. That's 57.2 percent of all selections, a figure that shortly after would rise.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll down the list to view the records of all 187 selections</a>.</div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-6304679188331855442011-09-17T11:37:00.006-04:002011-09-18T15:46:17.295-04:00Not much of a surprise, but he finally strikesA year and six days after nearly posting a shocking upset in his debut effort at 2, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/surprise+strike" target="new">Surprise Strike</a> returned for the third time to Presque Isle Downs and finally broke through for his first lifetime win, this time as the favorite.<div><br /></div><div>Surprise Strike becomes the 106th winner from 187 juveniles I selected on this blog from various auctions in 2010.<br /><div><br /></div><div>On Sept. 10, 2010, the bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Unbridled Femme, by Unbridled, was sent off at 20/1 in maiden special weight company at Presque. Running sixth early, rider Scott Spieth sneaked the horse through on the rail and he rallied to within a half-length of defeating 3/1 second-choice Goodtimehadbyall (who has now earned nearly $158,000).</div><div><br /></div><div>It was a promising, second-place debut. So promising that Surprise Strike's connections, owner Orlando Dirienzo and trainer Jeremiah Englehart, aimed higher. The horse was sent to Woodbine for his next two starts, where he finished second in a Polytrack route to Bluegrass Dreamer, then fifth in his last effort at 2.</div><div><br /></div><div>Shelved for the winter, Surprise Strike returned to Presque Isle for his 3-year-old debut on June 29, and was reunited with Spieth. He finished second that day to Phipps Stable's Surreptitiously. Then, it was off to Saratoga, for a pair of unplaced efforts in tough maiden special company on grass.</div><div><br /></div><div>Back at the scene of his nearest successes, but without his partnership with Spieth renewed (rather, with Paul Nicol Jr. in the irons), Surprise Strike overcame an awkward break to dispose of a maiden special weight field at Presque Isle on Friday evening. He came home a confident two lengths in front at about even money. Spieth came home second aboard Alfarooq.</div><div><br /></div><div>Surprise Strike was bred in Kentucky by Duzee Stable. He now has a win and three seconds from seven lifetime starts in Dirienzo's colors, for $57,949.</div><div><br /></div><div>I shortlisted Surprise Strike as a Priority 2 horse on a 48-horse shortlist of prospects for a bargain-minded client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale. While bidding for the horse went higher than we came to spend (a $34,000 RNA), that bid was still more than $10,000 below the sales average.</div><div><br /></div><div>The horse breezed 23 flat over a slow Timonium track at the Maryland sale, and according to consignor True South LLC he did it after being medicated for throat swelling due to a possible snakebite. His dam was a stakes-winner; his second dam a G3-placer who was by Deputy Minister. And considering my first impression of the front end of the horse as they led him from his stall into the daylight was <i>"Holy ..."</i> I was a bit surprised he didn't bring more than that $34,000 bid in the ring as Hip 380, which wasn't enough to buy him.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ultimately, I decided Surprise Strike's hindquarters weren't as impressive as his shoulder, neck and chest, but not so much that I wouldn't have wanted him. His pastern angle was good, albeit perhaps just a tad longer than I'd prefer. He looks splendid at speed, though, especially when finishing in front.</div><div><br /></div><div>With 106 winners, 56.7 percent of my 187 selections now have broken maiden. He is the 25th winner from that 48-horse EASMAY shortlist (52.1 percent), which isn't too bad considering the horses I selected were sold or were RNAs for an average bid that was less than half the sale average. That group happens to include four stakes-placers, bought for an average of $29,000.</div><div><br /></div><div>I need to update the full records and earnings at home, but I believe the 187-member class has now equaled in earnings -- or nearly so -- the roughly $6.44 million bid on them at the sales. Earnings from the EASMAY class exceeded the approximately $1.13 million bid on them some weeks ago.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections, plus a handful of horses I went against</a>.</div></div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-16547544147932645602011-09-16T18:51:00.000-04:002011-09-16T18:51:00.305-04:00Pair clear NW3L condition, continents apartScoring with relative ease, two 3-year-olds from my juvenile sales selections of 2010 garnered their third lifetime victories in races thousands of miles apart.<div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/lime+rock+revenge" target="new">Lime Rock Revenge</a> scored on Wednesday at Fairplex Park in California. On Friday, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/sand+hi" target="new">Sand Hi</a> stormed home in front at Busan in Korea.<br /><div><br /></div><div>Dropped to the $8,000 level, Lime Rock Revenge won for fun at Fairplex. Lime Rock Revenge and all-time Fairplex leading jockey Martin Pedroza stalked Kayla Stra aboard San Darino through fractions of 22.63 and 47.08 before finishing off the early leader in the stretch to win by 4 1/4 lengths as the 9/5 favorite. San Darino hung on for second. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on the fair meet bullring was 1:17.97.</div><div><br /></div><div>Bred in Kentucky by A. Clare Silva, Lime Rock Revenge is now owned by S.A.Y. Racing LLC and trained by Doug O'Neill. He won for the third time in eight starts, running his bankroll to $47,564.</div><div><br /></div><div>I recommended the son of Limehouse-Genie's Flight, by Silver Hawk, out of the 2010 Ocala April sale, where he failed to meet reserve on a bid of $16,000 as Hip 1080.</div><div><br /></div><div>After missing the break and going largely unasked in his debut at 2 over the synthetic strip last summer at Hollywood Park, O'Neill wheeled Lime Rock Revenge back in four days to break the horse's maiden for a $40,000 tag. Laid-up for the winter, Lime Rock Revenge returned for a $50,000 tag at Santa Anita on Tax Day this year, April 15, and scored impressively, setting withering fractions of 21.23 and 43.70 on his way to finishing on top in 1:15.86 for 6 1/2 furlongs. After a series of fifth- and sixth-place finishes among higher claiming levels on dirt, turf and synth, he was dropped in for the win Wednesday.</div><div><br /></div><div>On Friday at Busan, Sand Hi won for the third time in 10 Korean starts, running his bank account to a U.S. equivalent of $91,014 for owner Kim Pyung Kap. He scored by a fairly comfortable two lengths in Class III competition, covering 1,400 meters in 1:29.</div><div><br /></div><div>The bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Hay Lauren, by Hay Halo, was on my shortlist of 48 bargain-minded prospects for a client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale in May. He went for $20,000 as Hip 171 to the Korean Racing Authority (KOID), which resells U.S. 2-year-olds at auction to connections in that country.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://fuguefortinhorns.blogspot.com/2010/06/here-they-are-all-my-tips-and-rips-of.html">See the records of all 187 of my juvenile sales selections of 2010</a>.</div></div>Glenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.com0