Breeders' Cup pre-entries include two from tips

After much anticipation, the pre-entries for the 2010 Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs were finalized on Monday released on Wednesday -- a record 184 horses nominated to 14 races.

Among the 61 pre-entries by the connections of juveniles, five horses were cross-entered on both dirt and turf, meaning 56 horses were submitted for the draw. Two of those were members of my sales-tip Class of 2010: Delightful Mary (Limehouse-Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy) and Rough Sailing (Mizzen Mast-Moussica, by Woodman).

More about them later.

There were 18 entries for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, 13 for the Juvenile Fillies on the main track, a sparse 11 pre-entries for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and 19 for the male division of the Juvenile Turf. Horses can be cross-entered in two races on pre-entry day, but by Tuesday (Nov. 2), connections must have made a final decision on which race they're running and pay the final entry fees at that time.

The pre-entry story at Breederscup.com states that each of the 14 races is limited to 14 starters, plus up to two on the also-eligible list. This is contradictory to the "pre-entry procedures" and rules as detailed elsewhere on the site, which make provisions for some races of only 12 horses and flatly state under Entry Procedures: "There will be no also-eligible list or scratch time." (If Breederscup.com needs a copyeditor and fact-checker, I happen to know -- and be -- one who is unemployed.)

Owners Darrell & Evelyn Yates and trainer Wayne Catalano, connections of Jordy Y, who is No. 4 in order of mention (is that entry preference?) on the linked list above in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, would rather she run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she's fifth on the list and will surely get in. Andrew Rosen's Theyskens' Theory, trained by Brian Meehan, also was cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies (first preference of her connections, last of 13 in draw-priority) and the Juvenile Fillies Turf (second choice of her connections, 15th in preference for making the draw).

Among males, Robert Teel's and Wes Ward's Madman Diaries was entered with first-preference in the Juvenile Turf, where he ranks fifth among all entries. He stands eighth of 11 for admission to the rather lightly subscribed Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Two Juvenile Turf entries are also subscribed as first-preference to the Juvenile; Catesby Clay's Rogue Romance (second on the turf list and ninth among dirt entries), who is trained by Kenny McPeek, and Italian Gran Criterium-G1 winner Biondetti (12th in the turf and 10th of 11 on dirt), who is owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

Delightful Mary -- whom I tipped on this blog as a live (and likely expensive) sales prospect before she became the $500,000 sales-topper at OBSAPR -- is 11th of 13 in entry-ranking among entries in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and will make the field if healthy to go. She gives every indication of being ready, firing a minute-flat bullet for five furlongs on Monday over the Churchill strip, fastest of 32 at the distance.

The John Oxley-owned, Mark Casse trained Limehouse filly collected two easy wins over Polytrack at Woodbine -- one sprinting and one in allowance company around two turns -- before being upset as the odds-on favorite by Wyomia in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S.-G3 her last out.

Owners Edward A. Seltzer and Beverly Anderson and trainer Daniel J. Vella -- connections of Wyomia -- shockingly to me did not enter the Vindication filly in the Juvenile Fillies, opting instead for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She sits 16th on the entry list, but will sneak into the 14-starter gate if both Jordy Y and Theyskens' Theory go in the Juvenile Fillies as their entry preferences suggest.

I think Delightful Mary looks sharp going into the race and has every reason to both move up on the switch from Polytrack to real dirt, and to handle an off-track if one is presented.

The other sales-tip to make racing's marquee day is Rough Sailing, who stands eighth in admission preference among pre-entries for the Juvenile Turf; seventh if you consider Rogue Romance's likely defection to the dirt division. I'm glad to see the colt owned by Jack Smith III and trained by Michael Stidham headed back to the grass, the surface on which he convincingly (with a huge late kick, despite a troubled trip) broke his maiden going two turns at Arlington Park.

Rough Sailing is a gutsy horse and battled his way to a place-finish behind Major Gain (also nominated to the Juvenile Turf) on Polytrack in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3. But his third race was a step up to Grade 1 company on Keeneland's Poly in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, a race in which he again had some trouble, but kept grinding in the stretch to finish sixth, beaten 10.

Jockey Michael Baze has said that he thinks Rough Sailing has a better closing kick on the lawn, so while the Juvenile Turf is more heavily subscribed, I'd rather see him go back to grass than try a new surface again, the dirt this time. (Maybe later.)

I had Rough Sailing categorized as a "Priority 1" on a 48-horse short-list for a client seeking bargain runners out of the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this May. After seeing him up-close, I didn't expect him to stay in our price range -- and he didn't -- but at a price of $40,000, he still sold for nearly 20 percent less than the average horse at that auction.

While it will be exciting to watch those two on one of racing's biggest weekends, the pre-entries were a little disappointing to me. I had hoped for potentially two or three more horses from my sales-tips to be among the pre-entries.

RIGOLETTA -- a 33/1 upsetter of Juvenile Fillies third-ranked Tell a Kelly when they met in the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at Hollywood Park -- was a lock to make the field for the B.C., but would have to be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup at a cost of $180,000. Sealing her non-entry was a recent announcement by trainer Dan Hendricks declaring the Thor-Bred Stable-owned filly out of the Breeders' Cup with a minor splint injury.

Hendricks said he wanted to be sure Rigoletta was ready for the winter/spring season at Santa Anita (over a brand-new dirt track that I think moves her up vs. synthetics). Curiously -- unless the fee was paid prior to discovery of her injury -- Rigoletta was among the nominations announced this week for the $500,000 Delta Princess S.-G3 to be run at Delta Downs on Nov. 20.

Also on that whopping, 117-filly Delta Princess nominee list are sales-tips FISCAL POLICY and Rigoletta's fellow Cal-shipper and maiden-winner-only Benecia.

Another filly I had fully expected to be pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup -- and probably cross-entered in the Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile Fillies Turf -- was the Bob Baffert-trained, Jill Baffert-owned Alienation. A debut winner on grass (in fleet time and a thrilling photo) and G1/G2-placed on dirt at Saratoga, she flopped after breaking awkwardly on synthetic in that Oak Leaf Stakes won by Rigoletta. I'm not sure the speedball daughter of Rock Hard Ten needed to be in the Juvenile Fillies, going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt (though I think she'll eventually stay a route of ground if they can get her to rate), but I would have liked to see her incredible early foot employed in trying to steal the Juvenile Fillies Turf on the front end.

Alienation, whom I tipped out of OBSAPR and has earned $104,000 off a $60,000 purchase, was nominated two weeks ago (after her Oak Leaf also-ran) for the Pocahontas S.-G2 at a mile on the main track at Churchill this weekend. Those entries haven't been drawn-up yet, and I'm curious to see if Alienation is among them or whether the Bafferts have decided to rest her a spell. Fiscal Policy happens to be nominated to the Pocahontas, as well.

Finally, I thought there was a chance GOURMET DINNER might make the Breeders' Cup at Churchill. The $40,000 sales-tip of mine out of OBSAPR's first session was 3-for-3 with two stakes wins and seemed a possibility to follow filly Awesome Feather into the Breeders' Cup as undefeated queen and king of the Florida Stallion Series of restricted races at Calder.

Then he was upset in the third leg of the series, the $350,000 In Reality Stakes, by $94 shocker REPRIZED HALO -- yet another OBSAPR sales tip of mine, who sold a day after Gourmet Dinner for a paltry $23,000. That certainly derailed any designs the connections had on an unbeaten, championship season for Gourmet Dinner. Though looking at the small group of nominees -- 11 juvenile males, one of which is already pointed to the turf instead and including a couple who probably can't get the distance -- it still might have been worth a shot.

Instead, both Gourmet Dinner and Reprized Halo are among the incredible 241 horses nominated to the $1 million Delta Jackpot, also on Nov. 20 at Delta Downs. Also included in that vast list of nominees is 2010 sales-tip Category Killer, whose two races thus far include a five-length runner-up finish to now stakes-winning sales tip PULGARCITO in their mutual debut at Hoosier Park, and a return to the scene of that "sales-tip exacta" for a 15-plus-length maiden-special romp on Sept. 30.

Category Killer fired a 36-flat bullet at Churchill Tuesday and is also nominated to the $100,000 Iroquois S.-G3 to be run at that track on Sunday. Plus, he's listed as an entry on the overnights for a Saturday evening allowance event at Delta Downs. Busy little fellow.

With the addition of stakes-placer Spring Jump on Wednesday, the list of 2010 sales-tip stakes horses has reached a dozen. In addition to those mentioned, stakes placers include still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (second in G3s on turf and Poly at Woodbine), G3-placed Stopspendingmaria and non-blacktype stakes-placed Blue 'Em Away.

Follow the entire sales-tip Class of 2010 in the list at the end of this link.

Big thumbs-up for Pulgarcito in Zia stakes

PULGARCITO -- a gelding whose name means "Tom Thumb" in Spanish -- earned positive reviews Sunday afternoon at Zia Park in Hobbs, N.M., as he stalked leader Jam'n Jackson for a half-mile, then grabbed the lead in the stretch and drew clear to win the $55,000 Governor's Cup Stakes by two lengths.

Jam'n Jackson faded to third behind Race for Jake.

Ken Tohill handled the ride aboard the winner for trainer Steve Asmussen. Tohill and Pulgarcito sat in second, a length or two off very fast 22.38 and 44.51 opening fractions set by Jam'n Jackson and Alejandro Medellin, before pouncing in the stretch. Final time for the six furlongs was 1:10.84.

The gelding was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst.

With the win, Pulgarcito runs his career mark to a pair of wins and a second from three four starts, for $61,170. He also becomes the fifth stakes winner, and the 11th horse stakes-placed or better, from my 187-member Class of 2010; horses I selected and tipped on this blog (or for a client) at various 2-year-old sales this year.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was catalogued as Hip 849 in the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. He failed to sell when the bidding topped-out at $37,000.

After he failed to sell at OBSAPR, he was successfully hawked for $40,000 at the OBSOPN sale in June. He races for Heiligbrodt Racing Stable.

The gelding won his debut on Aug. 18 at Hoosier Park, wiring a maiden special weight field by more than five lengths; a field that included runner-up and fellow debuting sales-tip Category Killer, who returned to Hoosier in similar company his next out to win by more than 15 lengths.

Pulgarcito then shipped to Oklahoma's Remington Park, where he finished second to a stakes-placed horse named Brickyard Fast (who would later race unsuccessfully in Grade 1 company) in a $75,000 optional-claimer. In his third start, Pulgarcito trailed early and never recovered in finishing fifth in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington.

More forwardly placed Sunday, as he had been in his first two starts, he performed in similar, strong fashion.

I broke a rule of mine (so maybe it's more a "guideline") in recommending Pulgarcito, whose sire, Greatness, was a winning racehorse, but could boast no stakes-quality performances at the track. Still, Greatness as the son of Mr. Prospector -- one of the 20th century's prepotent sires -- and of the mare Harbour Club (Danzig), a sharp juvenile and track record-setting Grade 3 stakes winner, was undeniably well-bred. He's passed some of those good qualities along to his get, as well. Going into the sale, Greatness had sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals -- though only one prior stakes winner.

Among those prior winners by Greatness is a full sibling to Pulgarcito, named Great Attack, who won twice in 2009 at age 2. So particularly after Pulgarcito blazed a 10-flat eighth at the OBSAPR under-tack show, all signs pointed to an early winner.

After the weekend's action, 99 of the 187 sales tips have now made at least one start as a juvenile; that's 52.9 percent. There are 34 winners, for 18.2 percent of all selections and 34.3 percent of those to race.

The class has now won 45 of 282 starts, and though the pace of victories has declined a bit, that's still 16 percent. (Well, 15.9574468 percent, to be a bit more precise. At that point, we can round up.)

They've placed another 55 times and were the show-finishers in another 27 races, for 35.5 percent in the exacta and 45 percent on the board.

Total earnings are inching closer to $2 million, with $1,968,603 banked by the 99 starters. That's $6,981 per start, and an average of $19,885 per starter.

Besides Pulgarcito, stakes winners from my sales recommendations include: RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S.-G1, $180,820); two-time stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (3-for-4 lifetime, 1st Florida Stallion Dr. Fager S., 1st Florida Stallion Affirmed S., 2nd Florida Stallion In Reality St., $209,660); REPRIZED HALO (1st Florida Stallion In Reality S., handing Gourmet Dinner his only loss, $254,016); and FISCAL POLICY (Coca-Cola Bassinet S., $54,080).

Of the six additional stakes-placers, five of those have come in graded company, with seven second-place finishes. They include: Alienation (2nd Spinaway S.-G1, 2nd Adirondack S.-G2, $104,000); still-a-maiden Rockin Heat (Summer S.-G3T, Grey S.-G3A, $119,845); Delightful Mary (2nd Mazarine S.-G3, $112,377); Stopspendingmaria (2nd Schuylerville S.-G3, $59,167); Rough Sailing (2nd Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3, $36,200); and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'Em Away (2nd Osiris S.-N, $16,053).

Follow the exploits of all my sales picks, and a few pans, in the lengthy list at the bottom of this former post.

Another daily double, sales-tip style

Two more members of this blog's juvenile sales-tip class of 2010 broke maiden on Thursday, both by open lengths, one of them in "dominating" fashion, winning at Hoosier Park "by a pole."

Soldier's Tune, a maiden-claiming winner at Calder Thursday afternoon, and Category Killer, victor the same evening in Indiana by a murderous margin, become the 31st and 32nd to break maiden among my 187 selections from several of this spring's juvenile sales.

Both horses had been near-winners at their same levels and tracks in prior starts.

Soldier's Tune debuted July 1 at the maiden-claiming $32,000 level at Calder and was only beaten a head. Stepped up to MCL $40K, he finished fourth, then back at $32,000 on Sept. 4, he finished second behind a fellow Class of 2010 selection, Just Chillin Boss.

On Thursday, ridden by Juan Leyva, Soldier's Tune was sent away as the roughly 5/2 favorite off a 6/1 morning line. A debuting, 39/1 long-shot, Chagu Mio, broke first (and would eventually finish second), but Soldier's Tune was a head in front within the first three-sixteenths and at the half, and progressively drew off. Chagu Mio clung to the place, four lengths behind the winner and just a head and a nose in front of Kitten's Caregiver (3.8/1) and 47/1 first-timer Jim's Decision.

Soldier's Tune set fractions of 22.66 and 47.15 on his way to covering five furlongs over fast dirt in 1:00.36. He was conditioned for the win by Richard Root for owner Joseph W. Raffa.

He was bred in Florida by Louie Rogers and David McKathan.

I recommended the gray or roan son of Concorde's Tune-Jessica Bush, by Lost Soldier as Hip 1182 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. (Curiously, he was catalogued as a gelding and the Equibase chart for his victory labels him a colt; that's an equipment change not usually as readily reversed as "blinkers off.")

Joe Arboritanza, as agent for Mr. Raffa, purchased the horse for $28,000 at OBSAPR. Soldier's Tune now has a win and two seconds from four starts for $19,578.

Arboritanza and Raffa no doubt didn't read this blog, but if they had, it turns out they'd have bought almost exactly what I led them to expect.

"Want a racehorse ... right away? And probably cheap?" I wrote at the time. "This FL-bred should be close to the track and they did you a favor by gelding him already so you don't have to bear that cost (and wait), and he can focus on his job from the get-go."

The horse, I noted, "breezed a credible 47-flat for four furlongs, one of very few to work that distance, and did it well within himself." The sire, I note, "is unheralded, but gets 81 percent starters and 64 percent winners from all foals. He even gets 5 percent stakes winners, which is fair by today's standards."

The dam won at 2, her first foal broke maiden at 2 and has won again at 3, and second dam Oh My Jessica Pie won 10 of 17 at ages 2 and 3, was a stakes winner both years (G3 as a sophomore) and earned $403K. She produced a stakes winner in OH MY BUTTERFLY and an 11-race winner of $161K from 56 starts in Darn That Buck.

"Buy and perhaps go racing ... now," I predicted.

Soldier's Tune was in the starting gate by July 1, and a winner before September's end.

(As an addendum, I'd like to see Soldier's Tune try sprinting on grass. His sire is a grandson of Super Concorde, champion 2-year-old in France. His dam is by the recently deceased Lost Soldier, a Danzig son and a crossover performer with a Grade 3 win on turf, who not only sired champion dirt sprinter Lost in the Fog, but also millionaire turf horse Soldier's Dancer.)

While his classmate took four starts to break maiden, Category Killer required only two. But, like Soldier's Tune, he also was denied a win along the way by another sales pick of mine when Pulgarcito won their mutual debut at Hoosier by more than three lengths on Aug. 18. Category Killer was a clear second that night.

On Thursday, there was no fellow sales-tip to deny him, and no denying that Category Killer was much the best in the race. The winner dueled long-shot leader Biscotto for the opening half-mile, was five lengths ahead of the field at the top of the stretch, and just kept widening.

The son of Officer (a sire just banished this week to Korea) out of the Phone Trick mare, Dial a Trick, was bred in Kentucky by Gulf Coast Farms LLC. He was trained by Tom Amoss for Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence, and ridden to victory by Leandro Goncalves. Final time for six furlongs over the fast dirt strip was 1:11.2. (View the video here courtesy of Bloodhorse.com.)

I recommended Category Killer from that same Ocala April sale, where he was sold for $70,000 as Hip 957. At the time, he seemed to me one of the surer bets on the sales-tip list.

"Dam didn't race, but has six winners from eight of racing age, and some pretty good ones," I wrote.

I took note that Category Killer is half-brother to EYE OF THE TIGER (Washington Park H.-G2, etc., $535,679), WILDWOOD FLOWER (G2-placed), and juvenile stakes-placer Expanse, who since became the dam of Travers S.-G1 winner AFLEET EXPRESS and was already credited with foaling MAXXAM Gold Cup winner and Illinois Derby-G2-placed REPORTING FOR DUTY. This is the near-female-family of several other stakes winners, including Illinois Derby-winner and Preakness-placed SWEETNORTHERNSAINT.

Category Killer helped make his own case with a gusty 9 4/5 breeze, then continued to work sharply for months leading up to his debut. I was shocked when Pulgarcito took him gate-to-wire in their first-outs, but by the top of the stretch this time, it was a one-horse race.

When he sold for $70,000, I noted it was "often tough to say about a horse who brought more than double the sale average price, but this dollar-figure might prove a bargain."

It hasn't yet, with a win and a place for $28,000. But Category Killer looks like a horse who could move forward from here into some headier company.

As noted above, Thursdays wins bring the sales-tip class to 32 maiden-breakers from 187 recommended horses, or 17.1 percent of the class. With 89 of the class having made at least one start, the dual victors mean that 36 percent of all sales-tip runners are now winners.

The class as a whole has won 40 of 222 starts (18 percent), placed another 41 times (36.5 percent in the exacta) and added 21 third-place finishes (an in-the-money rate of 46 percent). They have earned a combined $1,296,375, for $5,839.52 per start.

The group includes eight stakes horses, five of them graded-placed.

Track the unfolding careers of my sales picks, and a few pans, at the bottom of this former post.

Sales-pick exacta provides winner No. 17

I was looking forward to Wednesday evening's fourth race at Hoosier Park, because I was convinced one of my 2010 juvenile sales picks was gonna run away and hide with that one. And I was right.

But I had the wrong horse.

Pulgarcito, a first-timer from the barn of Steve Asmussen, broke from the 1-hole, bolted to the lead under Victor Lebron, and sailed around the rail to victory by five and a quarter lengths. He set blazing fractions, especially for a first-time starter, of 21.80 for a quarter and 45-flat for the half, posting a final time of 1:04 flat for five and a half furlongs.

Trailing from gate to wire was the horse I thought was going to win, another sales pick of mine, Category Killer. Trained by Tom Amoss, Category Killer had been working more briskly than Pulgarcito leading up to their mutual debut race. Consequently, he was sent off as the favorite at about 3/2, while Pulgarcito posted odds of better than 5/1 and paid $12.80 to win. (A rare, generous payout, I should think, for an Asmussen horse making his debut at a track like Hoosier.)

Finishing third, another two lengths behind Category Killer, was Finding Paradise, the second choice in the odds at a little less than 2/1 after he debuted with a second-place finish at Churchill on July 2.

Had you boxed my "sales-pick exacta," you'd have collected $37.20 for each $4 wagered.

Pulgarcito (Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat) was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst. He is owned by Heiligbrodt Racing Stable. The colt was a $37,000 RNA as Hip 849 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training.

I'd normally ignore the get of unraced stallions, or those -- like Greatness -- who only won a couple of races and were never stakes performers. But Greatness is a son of one of the 20th century's true prepotent sires, Mr. Prospector, and his dam Harbour Club was a track record-setting stakes winner. While those genes didn't amount to a splendid racehorse in Greatness, for whatever reason, he's passed a few good qualities along to his get. Through three crops of racing age last year, Greatness has sired 75 percent runners and 53 percent winners from all foals, although just one stakes winner. He's upgraded his mares, with a 1.26 Average Earnings Index vs. a 1.07 Comparable Index.

So when this fellow -- whose dam was a G3 winner at 2 and a proven stakes producer -- blistered 10-flat through an eighth, I took notice. Pulgarcito also already had a juvenile-winning full sibling in Great Attack, who won two of three starts last year at age 2. So the stage was set with this one for an early win, and he got it (earning $21,000) in his first out.

"Another likely FL-bred winner by this over-achieving sire," I predicted.

But I didn't predict that he'd win Wednesday.

While Pulgarcito had drilled no quicker than 38.60, 50-flat and 102.20 for Asmussen, Category Killer had worked sub-24 for two furlongs in May, quick as 46.60 for four furlongs in July, and most recently ran 1:00.40 just 10 days prior to this start. I thought the son of Officer-Dial a Trick, by Phone Trick, was the sharper of the two.

I thought wrong.

Category Killer did earn $7,000 for his owners, Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence. A half-brother to G2 winner EYE OF THE TIGER, G2-placed WILDWOOD FLOWER and stakes-placed stakes-producer Expanse, the colt was a $70,000 purchase as Hip 957 from the same OBSAPR sale that produced Pulgarcito. He drilled 9.4 in the under-tack show, and I suggested his price, despite being roughly double the sales average, could prove to be a bargain.

And it still might, because the colt got taken down Wednesday by an obviously super-sharp horse from one of the nation's most successful strings. I have to think Category Killer's chances are even better his next time out.

Also Wednesday, I had a firster from my sales picks making a start among NY-bred maiden special weights at Saratoga. There Goes Molly (Chief Seattle-Hey Darla, by Evansville Slew) was a $6,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training this past May. I thought she might outrun her odds -- which were 12/1 on the morning line and nearly 18/1 at post -- but she pretty much lost all chance when she broke through the gate before the start and had to be reloaded. That's never a good omen.

Through Wednesday's racing, my 187 juvenile sales tips have made 110 starts, producing 17 winners (9 percent), 18 victories including stakes winner GOURMET DINNER (16.4 percent wins from starts), and 28 other placings (41.8 percent in the money). The Class of 2010 has earned $572,928, for $5,208 per start.

Track the progress of all 187 sales picks, plus a few "pans," at this former post.