Another daily double, sales-tip style

Two more members of this blog's juvenile sales-tip class of 2010 broke maiden on Thursday, both by open lengths, one of them in "dominating" fashion, winning at Hoosier Park "by a pole."

Soldier's Tune, a maiden-claiming winner at Calder Thursday afternoon, and Category Killer, victor the same evening in Indiana by a murderous margin, become the 31st and 32nd to break maiden among my 187 selections from several of this spring's juvenile sales.

Both horses had been near-winners at their same levels and tracks in prior starts.

Soldier's Tune debuted July 1 at the maiden-claiming $32,000 level at Calder and was only beaten a head. Stepped up to MCL $40K, he finished fourth, then back at $32,000 on Sept. 4, he finished second behind a fellow Class of 2010 selection, Just Chillin Boss.

On Thursday, ridden by Juan Leyva, Soldier's Tune was sent away as the roughly 5/2 favorite off a 6/1 morning line. A debuting, 39/1 long-shot, Chagu Mio, broke first (and would eventually finish second), but Soldier's Tune was a head in front within the first three-sixteenths and at the half, and progressively drew off. Chagu Mio clung to the place, four lengths behind the winner and just a head and a nose in front of Kitten's Caregiver (3.8/1) and 47/1 first-timer Jim's Decision.

Soldier's Tune set fractions of 22.66 and 47.15 on his way to covering five furlongs over fast dirt in 1:00.36. He was conditioned for the win by Richard Root for owner Joseph W. Raffa.

He was bred in Florida by Louie Rogers and David McKathan.

I recommended the gray or roan son of Concorde's Tune-Jessica Bush, by Lost Soldier as Hip 1182 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. (Curiously, he was catalogued as a gelding and the Equibase chart for his victory labels him a colt; that's an equipment change not usually as readily reversed as "blinkers off.")

Joe Arboritanza, as agent for Mr. Raffa, purchased the horse for $28,000 at OBSAPR. Soldier's Tune now has a win and two seconds from four starts for $19,578.

Arboritanza and Raffa no doubt didn't read this blog, but if they had, it turns out they'd have bought almost exactly what I led them to expect.

"Want a racehorse ... right away? And probably cheap?" I wrote at the time. "This FL-bred should be close to the track and they did you a favor by gelding him already so you don't have to bear that cost (and wait), and he can focus on his job from the get-go."

The horse, I noted, "breezed a credible 47-flat for four furlongs, one of very few to work that distance, and did it well within himself." The sire, I note, "is unheralded, but gets 81 percent starters and 64 percent winners from all foals. He even gets 5 percent stakes winners, which is fair by today's standards."

The dam won at 2, her first foal broke maiden at 2 and has won again at 3, and second dam Oh My Jessica Pie won 10 of 17 at ages 2 and 3, was a stakes winner both years (G3 as a sophomore) and earned $403K. She produced a stakes winner in OH MY BUTTERFLY and an 11-race winner of $161K from 56 starts in Darn That Buck.

"Buy and perhaps go racing ... now," I predicted.

Soldier's Tune was in the starting gate by July 1, and a winner before September's end.

(As an addendum, I'd like to see Soldier's Tune try sprinting on grass. His sire is a grandson of Super Concorde, champion 2-year-old in France. His dam is by the recently deceased Lost Soldier, a Danzig son and a crossover performer with a Grade 3 win on turf, who not only sired champion dirt sprinter Lost in the Fog, but also millionaire turf horse Soldier's Dancer.)

While his classmate took four starts to break maiden, Category Killer required only two. But, like Soldier's Tune, he also was denied a win along the way by another sales pick of mine when Pulgarcito won their mutual debut at Hoosier by more than three lengths on Aug. 18. Category Killer was a clear second that night.

On Thursday, there was no fellow sales-tip to deny him, and no denying that Category Killer was much the best in the race. The winner dueled long-shot leader Biscotto for the opening half-mile, was five lengths ahead of the field at the top of the stretch, and just kept widening.

The son of Officer (a sire just banished this week to Korea) out of the Phone Trick mare, Dial a Trick, was bred in Kentucky by Gulf Coast Farms LLC. He was trained by Tom Amoss for Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence, and ridden to victory by Leandro Goncalves. Final time for six furlongs over the fast dirt strip was 1:11.2. (View the video here courtesy of Bloodhorse.com.)

I recommended Category Killer from that same Ocala April sale, where he was sold for $70,000 as Hip 957. At the time, he seemed to me one of the surer bets on the sales-tip list.

"Dam didn't race, but has six winners from eight of racing age, and some pretty good ones," I wrote.

I took note that Category Killer is half-brother to EYE OF THE TIGER (Washington Park H.-G2, etc., $535,679), WILDWOOD FLOWER (G2-placed), and juvenile stakes-placer Expanse, who since became the dam of Travers S.-G1 winner AFLEET EXPRESS and was already credited with foaling MAXXAM Gold Cup winner and Illinois Derby-G2-placed REPORTING FOR DUTY. This is the near-female-family of several other stakes winners, including Illinois Derby-winner and Preakness-placed SWEETNORTHERNSAINT.

Category Killer helped make his own case with a gusty 9 4/5 breeze, then continued to work sharply for months leading up to his debut. I was shocked when Pulgarcito took him gate-to-wire in their first-outs, but by the top of the stretch this time, it was a one-horse race.

When he sold for $70,000, I noted it was "often tough to say about a horse who brought more than double the sale average price, but this dollar-figure might prove a bargain."

It hasn't yet, with a win and a place for $28,000. But Category Killer looks like a horse who could move forward from here into some headier company.

As noted above, Thursdays wins bring the sales-tip class to 32 maiden-breakers from 187 recommended horses, or 17.1 percent of the class. With 89 of the class having made at least one start, the dual victors mean that 36 percent of all sales-tip runners are now winners.

The class as a whole has won 40 of 222 starts (18 percent), placed another 41 times (36.5 percent in the exacta) and added 21 third-place finishes (an in-the-money rate of 46 percent). They have earned a combined $1,296,375, for $5,839.52 per start.

The group includes eight stakes horses, five of them graded-placed.

Track the unfolding careers of my sales picks, and a few pans, at the bottom of this former post.

Another sales-tip exacta brings winner No. 24

Just Chillin Boss overcame long odds and paid $20.20 to win Saturday in clearing his maiden hurdle, denying fellow "Fugue Class of 2010" pick Soldier's Tune in the process. It was the second runner-up finish in three starts for Soldier's Tune. A $2 exacta paid $89.40.

A chestnut gelding by Sweetsouthernsaint-Aleutian Gold, by Prospector's Gamble, Just Chillin Boss was a $30,000 purchase as Hip 718 at the OBS April sale of 2-year-olds in training. He was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud, is owned and trained by Luis Oliveras, and was ridden by Luis Saez. He covered five furlongs in 1:01.03 to win for a $32,000 tag in his second lifetime start, runs his career earnings to $12,087, and becomes the 24th horse among my 187 juvenile sales tips to break maiden.

Soldier's Tune overcame an awkward start to race on or near the pace, and to grab the lead in the stretch. But he couldn't hold off Just Chillin Boss, who won by more than three lengths.

I tipped Just Chillin Boss off a 21.3 quarter in the under-tack show, but it certainly wasn't speed that led me to him. He's the full brother of G3-placed Seniors Pride ($124,945); half to RIVER POWER ($280,964) and six other winners of more than $600,000 total at the track. His dam was half to 21-win stakes-victor JELLIED MADRILENE.

"Really don't think he'll bring a ton," I said of Just Chillin Boss, "but history says he'll likely be a winner."

Track the performance of all 187 of my sales tips in the list at the end of this former post.

Bout of near-misses ends with a winner: Blue 'em Away becomes 14th sales tip to break maiden

Headed into the weekend, more than a dozen horses from my 2010 juvenile sales tips had chances to reach the winner's circle at tracks across North America, and even (on Sunday) in Korea.

It was a disappointing string of days and races until Saturday night, when a horse broke through that, to me, seemed one of the least likely going into the weekend.

Blue 'em Away, a colt by Bluegrass Cat-Alcina, by Kingmambo, managed to win in his fourth start, and his second since being banished to Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg after starting out his career in Kentucky. Jockey Vicky Baze "forced the pace" from the outside, according to the Equibase chart, and defeated short-price favorite Three Mile Tough by two on the wire.

The colt, bred in Ireland by Runnymede Farm, earned $6,913 for the victory, bringing his lifetime earnings to $8,702. He is now trained by Chad Torevell.

Despite his win on dirt, covering four and a half furlongs in a fairly pedestrian 54.80, I still think his connections, Arnason Farms, are missing the boat with this horse. He breezed a credible 10.2 over the Polytrack at Keeneland before selling for $20,000 at the April sale, prompting me to label him among the "steals" of the auction. (I also named a list of "potential second-chance deals" from the sale, that is, RNAs one might be able to buy privately later, and "surreal" prices, figures that I deemed too much to pay for a given horse.)

I noted that I might rather have seen a turf-raced sire bred to the Kingmambo mare, but there is dirt performance in the family. Alcina is a half-sister to four-time stakes winner CAMELLA (Housebuster) and 11-race stakes winner STONE CANYON (Mt. Livermore) -- both of whom were G3-placed -- and of Mamalik (Diesis), who was G1-placed on grass in France. But the second dam was a stakes-placer by noted turf sire Roberto.

The colt breezed a credible 10.2 over the Polytrack at Keeneland before the sale. I was further encouraged when the colt rocketed to 48.80 and 47.80 works from the gate at Keeneland. Later works of 49.40 and 1:03 flat were acceptable, albeit not outright fast.

The connections shipped the horse to a pair of races at Churchill, where he twice disappointed on dirt. Then, off he went to Winnipeg, where he posted his slowest-ever breeze (51.60) before failing as the favorite in another dirt race -- dirt being the only surface at ASD. (He's breezed more briskly once since, 37.60.)

So, honestly, I had low hopes for Blue 'em Away going into Saturday's card. Frankly, I don't think he's a dirt horse. He's breezed anywhere from "all right" to extremely well over Polytrack at Keeneland. After running dull on dirt at Churchill, I can't fathom why he got punted all the way to Manitoba rather than just up the road to Arlington Park in Chicago, where he could try a synthetic track (or shelved until the Keeneland and Turfway meets).

With as much grass as there is in the female family, and a Storm Cat-line stallion on top (certainly a sireline capable of getting a turf runner), the colt also merited at least one chance on the lawn, perhaps at Ellis Park, before being banished to confines where the only grass around is for eating.

The connections' apparent early dismissal of the colt as a Kentucky-class racehorse aside, he's now a winner, regardless what I think, and the 14th of my sales-tip class of 2010. ... But please, bring him back in the winter and let him run on Polytrack at Turfway. I really think he'll improve on something other than traditional dirt.

Our winner now duly credited, the near-misses began with a third place finish on Thursday by Admitit, a bargain-priced filly ($20,000 at OBSAPR) who finished third, again, at Woodbine, this time on the grass. She's raced three times, has a third and another second on her record (both over the all-weather track) and has earned $18,760 toward repaying her purchase price, all without winning. And Woodbine, with its lofty purse structure, has become one of the more competitive tracks in North America.

On Friday night, two selections from Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic sale in May appeared in the same maiden special weight race at Charles Town. A $10,000 EASMAY purchase, Grand Giana, showed speed, but faded to fifth, while sales-mate Sultry Gibson led until the last instant, losing by a neck to Cuttin Edge Kitten. It was the second time Sultry Gibson had placed from four starts, her first three races being at Calder in Florida. She's earned $7,590. Grand Giana has earned $2,100 from three unplaced starts.

On Saturday, the missing got even nearer in one race, as first-timer Dangerous Ghost closed fast at the end but failed to get up in time and lost by a nose to 3/2 favorite Class E Holiday in a maiden special weight at Canterbury Park. I tipped the Ghostzapper filly from OBSAPR.

Two other maiden starters this weekend ran further in arrears in races on Saturday at Presque Isle Downs; Tale of the Tiger in her second start (an MSW) and R Canadian Academy (maiden-claimer) in her debut. Another scheduled starter, Soldier's Tune, was a trainer scratch at Calder from a $32,000 maiden-claimer in which he was the morning-line second choice at 3/1.

Through Saturday's racing, 56 of my 187 sales tips have gone to post at least once (30 percent), and the class has crested the century mark in combined starts. The class has won 15 of 102 starts (14.7 percent), placing or showing another 26 times (40.2 percent in the money). GOURMET DINNER ($75,390) is the only two-time winner, and is also the group's first stakes winner. Stopspendingmaria ($57,500) is Grade 3-placed at Saratoga. Combined earnings are now $487,644, or $4,781 per start.

You can track the performance of all 187 of my 2010 sales tips here.

Disappointing race for trio of 2010 tips

I'm not sure whether anyone else is, but I'm ardently following the nearly 190 2-year-olds I tipped from various juvenile sales each year.

Every time one of them races, I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the results. So when three of them go in one race, I'm particularly curious, and hopeful.

That didn't turn out so well today, but it looks like at least two of them have excuses.

Soldier's Tune, a $28,000 OBSAPR purchase who missed by only a head in his debut at the MCL $32K level, was a beaten favorite today in Race 8 at Calder, for a $40,000 tag. Sent off at 2.70/1, he "gave way" in the lane under Cecilio Penalba and finished fourth, beaten by a horse at almost 28/1, Master Dunker.

The race was won by Slews Big Finale in a time of 1:00.89 for 5 furlongs over a sealed, sloppy track. It'sapossibility came home second at nearly 10/1 for a $2 trifecta that paid $1,552.40.

Getting up to finish fifth by a neck was another tip of mine, On Appeal, a $25,000 OBSAPR purchase who would have seemed like a good value in the betting at nearly 6/1 after placing in both of his first two efforts. On this day, according to the chart, the saddle slipped in the early going for jockey Daniel Coa, and it's hard to win a race under those conditions. Fifth might not be such a bad effort.

Also with some excuse was firster You Es Oh Club, who was purchased for $30,000 from the same OBS April sale. Sent off at 8.30/1 and ridden by Angel Moreno, he was caught in an early, three-way bumping with Roy's Girls and Cliff's Catch (who finished seventh and eighth) and ended up straggling home 10th of 11.

I'm tracking the successes (or lack thereof) by all my 2010 juvenile picks, and you can, too, at the bottom of this past post.

Stopspendingmaria third 2010 'tip' to break maiden

With an impressive, seven-length, hand-ride win at Belmont Park this afternoon, Stopspendingmaria became the third horse to break maiden from my recommended list of 187 2-year-olds in training at this year's U.S. sales.

The Montbrook filly, out of the Notebook mare, Cutoffs, was a $90,000 purchase at the Ocala Breeders' Co. February sale of 2-year-olds; one of seven horses I tipped from that sale in an effort to pick relative bargains. Her price was only slightly below the average of $97,182 for the 66 to change hands at that sale, but if she moves forward off her first two quality efforts, she could still make that nearly six-figure price look like a deal indeed.

Stopspendingmaria jumped on top early Thursday and was never seriously challenged, cruising to her widening victory margin with only hand-urging from John Velazquez. Covering 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.73, the win might be even more impressive (or the rest of the field suspect) considering second-place Networking finished nine lengths ahead of third-place Hey Valentina. There was simply no matching Stopspendingmaria on this day, as she made a nice advance off her debut race June 5 at Monmouth, when she was a respectable third.

The filly races in the colors of Repole Stable, trained by Todd Pletcher.

The dark bay filly was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud. In recommending her off a 22-second quarter at OBSFEB (which actually was among the slower times at the distance) I noted that her dam was a full sister to SPECIAL REPORT, who was a juvenile winner and annexed a pair of Calder stakes races at age 3. Cutoffs and Special Report had three blacktype half-sisters by Montbrook, sire of Stopspendingmaria, an encouraging non-coincidence of this mating. Montbrook's career was short-lived at eight starts, so I prefer to see him bred to mares with a record of soundness. Cutoffs ran 30 times, winning six and hitting the board on another 13 occasions, for $166,670, meaning she fits the bill. She also already has a 3-year-old by Montbrook, named More Drama, who is a winner and nine-times-placed from 13 starts.

Stopspendingmaria now has a win and a show from two starts, for $37,500 earned.

Also Thursday, two other 2010 juvenile tips of mine squared-off in the same race at Calder, a $32,000 maiden-claimer in which first-timer Soldier's Tune, a $28,000 OBSAPR purchase, was second, beaten only a head. Already making his third start, Genuine Sole ($18,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic in May) had to be checked on the turn to avoid running up on Soldier's Tune, and ended up straggling home sixth, beaten 12 1/2, in a big class jump from MCL $16K.

The race was won by Texas-bred Machisa (Safado-Doncoda, by Cat Thief, i.e., a seriously inbred cuss), who covered 4 1/2 furlongs in 51:38 and was already making his fourth lifetime start.

Soldier's Tune earned $3,465 for his debut effort. Genuine Sole has now earned $1,415; he was seventh in a two-furlong super-shorty in his debut on May 28.

Click here to follow the fates of all my 2010 picks and pans, who now have a collective record of 3-7-4 from 31 races, for a shade over $120,000 earned.