Poll of the Millennium: The Triple Crown

With another year's Triple Crown Trail almost over, and a guarantee there will be no crown bestowed this year (thanks to Rachel Alexandra, Belmont Stakes results notwithstanding), it's worth asking readers what they think of the series.

Are you with D. Wayne Lukas in thinking the Belmont should be shortened? Should the races be spaced farther apart to give horses more time to prep in-between? Are you in the camp of a newsgroup friend of mine who would like to see a distance progression like the British Triple Crown -- a mile race, like the Two Thousand Guineas, to kick things off, then perhaps the Derby at 10f and another classic race? Are Pimlico and the Preakness dead and it's a moot point anyway?

I for one like the Triple Crown the way it is. Yes it's hard to attain. It's supposed to be hard.

The three differences I see in the degree of difficulty vs., say, the 1970s, include:

1. Thoroughbreds whose pedigrees carry somewhat more speed than in the past.

2. A 20-horse Kentucky Derby field that is a traffic nightmare and sometimes can rob a favorite of his advantage in talent or led to the occasional freak result. Our last devastatingly good, woulda, coulda, shoulda been-a Triple Crown winner, Spectacular Bid in '79, was part of a 10-horse Derby field.

3. Trainers who don't really know much anymore about how to prep a horse for three races in a period of six Saturdays, because they're more used to running Grade 1 horses three times in six months.

So vote in the poll and leave your comments in this thread. We're open all week, until Belmont afternoon, anyway.

Disclaimer: The Poll of the Millennium isn't necessarily the or the only poll of the entire millennium and such name is not meant to indicate that it is. The management reserves the right to publish as many Polls of the Millennium, as frequently as it deems reasonable and prudent -- or merely entertaining. The blogger, however, does not cast any vote in Poll of the Millennium.

As Rachel waits, Derby winner dangles

Here we are, less than a week from the Belmont Stakes draw, with no commitment made from the Rachel Alexandra camp about whether the phenomenal filly will be present for a rematch with Derby winner Mine That Bird, whom she bested in the Preakness.

The Blood-Horse's Steve Haskin muses about why that might be, and speculates -- I think correctly -- that Rachel's connections, including Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable, have to be at least 90 percent certain by now about what they're going to do. But Haskin notes that Jackson has given conflicting signals, including statements that they'd know by last Monday whether Rachel was ready; now we'll know by this coming Monday, which for a mid-week draw and Saturday race is pretty much go-time.

Haskin writes that a decision on Monday is cutting it awfully close, and "leaves the NYRA marketing department up the proverbial creek without a paddle."

There's somebody else Jackson has left in a holding pattern: Mine That Bird.

By now I'm leaning heavily toward the notion that Rachel Alexandra won't run in the Belmont Stakes. My desire for a rematch aside, I think if she were my filly I wouldn't consider it the right spot for her.

Rachel opting out would leave her regular rider, Calvin Borel, free to reclaim the mount aboard Mine That Bird, a job he gave up when both horses were entered in the Preakness. Mike Smith rode Mine That Bird to second in that race, but has taken off the horse to stay out west next weekend and ride Madeo, a Jerry and Ann Moss horse, in the Grade 1 Charles Whittingham Memorial at Hollywood Park the same afternoon. Mine That Bird's trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., has decided he'll wait and see whether Borel is available, and that means waiting out Jackson's decision on Rachel's Belmont future. Borel has even worked Woolley's horse in the interim.

I think Jackson might be tickled to make them sweat. After all, Mine That Bird's owner, Mark Allen, stuck Jackson and Co. in the sauna for a day when he, Ahmed Zayat and perhaps others gave serious consideration to blocking Rachel Alexandra from the Preakness by entering enough nominated, but undeserving, colts. All Jackson could do was dab at his brow for hours, until the Derby winner's connections and Zayat publicly changed their minds.

The Belmont-decision delay might just be Jackson's chance at a little turnabout. You made me wait and see whether my horse would run at Pimlico; I'll make you wait and see whether you get your jockey back for Belmont.

If so, that's the stuff good rivalries are made of.

Not Luv Gov again!

Why won't Luv Gov leave us in peace?

The Ten Most Wanted colt who I said had no business in the Preakness -- and who pretty much ran like it, placing eighth -- has officially been pointed to the Belmont Stakes. He might win and make me look the fool, but I say he doesn't belong there, either.

Luv Gov broke his maiden (at 10th asking, a term you don't hear that often about Grade 1 stakes horses) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. His name first cropped up as a Preakness entry amid the subterfuge intended to keep eventual winner Rachel Alexandra out of the race. Ahmed Zayat, owner of Pioneerof The Nile, said Marylou Whitney planned to enter a colt to "promote her stallion" (Belmont winner Birdstone, sire of Derby winner Mine That Bird) and the only colt to emerge from Whitney's string with Preakness intentions was Luv Gov. (The Whitney camp issued a blanket denial of a role in any conspiracy.)

Either Whitney and trainer D. Wayne Lukas are actually every bit as confident in this horse's ability as they say -- they were quoted as entering the Preakness feeling he "(had) a legitimate chance," also not something you hear often from the camp a 1-for-10 horse entered in a Grade 1 classic -- or else they're taking this charade two steps too far.

I just don't see how this entry adds up. Other than the truly special athletes, a horse deserves his conditions; in this case, the right to face non-winners of two when he himself has not yet won twice in his life.

Luv Gov took 10 races to break maiden. He did so impressively, closing from deep in the pack to draw off and win by 6 1/2 lengths going a mile and a sixteenth in the slop, for an 87 Beyer. But running off from maidens by 6 1/2 is a far cry from announcing your Grade 1 status unless perhaps you're a first-out 2-year-old.

The colt is improving. He had only one decent Beyer at age 2, a 73 in finishing third behind the ill-fated Stormalory in a Polytrack route at Keeneland. His other juvenile efforts earned Beyers of 39, 27, 49, 37 and (after the 73) a 30. (See his full pre-Preakness PPs here.)

He progressed considerably for Lukas after a layoff from November 2008 to March 2009, when he returned at Oaklawn Park. He was second there in two straight maiden special weight efforts, with Beyers of 83 and a regressive 74, then ran well again over Keeneland's synthetic surface in a place finish from his third 3-year-old start. Then the win at Churchill.

But an instant jump to Grade 1 races?

The Belmont actually makes more sense than the Preakness, I suppose. Whitney's a New Yorker and probably wants to see one of her horses in the show. And we've seen several seemingly overmatched horses -- particularly deep closers -- get up for a piece of the action at the end of the arduous 12 furlongs. Whitney's own Birdstone paid $74 when he charged from the rear to rob Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown in 2004. The following year, Afleet Alex won the Belmont with ease, while second place went to Andromeda's Hero (closing odds essentially 12-1) and third was a maiden, Nolan's Cat, at roughly 21-1. Alex beat them by 7 and 13 3/4, respectively, but they closed from 10th and 11th -- that's next-to-last and last -- to collect $200,000 and $110,000 paychecks.

But doesn't a horse deserve his conditions? Clearly Luv Gov is no Curlin, who burst on the scene with a huge debut effort at 3 and, almost the next thing you know, was finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, winning the Preakness and barely getting nosed out in the Belmont. A horse that took 10 tries to break maiden doesn't usually inspire such confidence.

It isn't like Luv Gov was brilliant in defeat at Pimlico. He wasn't beat by 15 or 20 lengths; only about nine. But he didn't really beat anybody, either. The only horses he finished ahead of were those whose riders didn't persevere with them once they realized the cause was lost. I haven't seen his Beyer from the Preakness, but judging from Rachel's reported 108, and the distance he finished behind her, I'd guesstimate that Luv Gov earned no better than 91. That could be considered progress from his maiden-breaking 87, but not nearly enough in my mind to try a Grade 1 again next out. (Edit: Belmont-contender PPs are now up at DRF; Luv Gov's Beyer for the Preakness was a bit-surprising 94, and in an interesting change, the Beyer for his maiden win was for some reason upgraded from 87 to 94.)

And I think the colt's pedigree is suspect at least to some degree. While his sire won the Travers at a mile and a quarter and was placed in the Belmont, Luv Gov's dam, City of Silver (Nepal-Silver Discovery, by Mr. Prospector) was a modest winner once from five starts, seems bred to sprint, has produced only two foals to race (a Luv Gov half-brother won once from 12 starts) and the only blacktype winner I can see under his second dam is a granddaughter who was a champion filly ... in Puerto Rico.

Still ... again ... somehow ... Lukas and Co. apparently think he has a shot in the Belmont.

"Wayne said he worked real well (since the Preakness) and that we ought to take a chance," John Hendrickson, Whitney's husband, told The Daily Racing Form. "We've gone off at higher than 30-1 before."

And it isn't like Lukas thinks this race is important. Having won it four times -- but not since 2000 -- Lukas recently said "nobody cares about mile and a half horses anymore" in calling for the Belmont to be shortened. So maybe he figures this is as good a place as any for his 1-for-11 charge.

The more I rant about this colt, I suppose, the more likely it is he'll eventually prove me wrong. Or at least the dumber I'll look if he does. And don't misunderstand; I'm not rooting against him. I'm only assessing his chances as any handicapper would before a big race, and I don't think those chances are good. Not to win, anyway.

So why not give the colt his conditions?

Five reasons why Mine That Bird will win the Preakness

What, you thought I gave the Kentucky Derby winner no chance in Saturday's Preakness Stakes?

1. Bye-bye, Borel: Believe it or not, I don't think Mine That Bird needs Calvin Borel. Though the jockey's ride in the Derby was masterful, the gelding has shown that he can win without him. Mine That Bird has five wins from nine starts, and those victories have come with three different jockeys; Chantal Sutherland is the leader with three. This loss of jockey really could be much ado about nothing when it comes to race-riding at Pimlico. In fact, if what trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and primary owner Mark Allen want from the horse is to be taken back early (done in part by necessity and in part by design in the Derby, to great success), replacement jock Mike Smith is among the best at winning with a deep closer. (Remember Giacomo?) ... Besides, Borel, a 14-percent winner in 2009, is at his best at Churchill. The guy getting the pickup mount is a hall-of-famer winning at 18 percent. How bad a trade is that, really?

2. Rachel Won't Win: I'm not saying that's a surety, I'm just saying that Rachel Alexandra as favorite -- probably heavy favorite -- isn't as sure a thing as the final odds (whatever they might be) are likely to suggest. And not just because she's a filly (though it plays a role; first race against boys, her toughest field ever, etc.). Look what's being asked of her. She's won five straight, and streaks do typically end. She switches barns, from Hal Wiggins, who obviously knew her well, to Steve Asmussen, who (despite, no doubt, talks with Wiggins), hardly knows her at all. Shipped to Pimlico, new stall, new grooms, new regimen. ... Tall order.

3. The Race Sets Up For Him: Another point against Rachel, for starters. She draws the 13-hole, which superstitiously is a negative, and could be practically, as well. A filly who runs up front -- no further than a head off the lead in her five straight wins -- Rachel might have to spend considerable energy early to draw clear and be able to drop over toward the rail to avoid being hung out very wide on the far turn; especially if one of the boys on the inside decides to make it extra-tough on the filly. Meanwhile, 'Bird sits in the 2-hole with fairly fleet Big Drama to his inside, permitting Smith to take back only a little and get right on the rail to save ground. He can sit second or he can sit 12th, it's up to him and his horse. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs here.)

4. Remember His 'Dirty Little Secret?' Well, Forget It: Yesterday I noted Mine That Bird's two efforts over a fast, conventional dirt track have not been nearly good enough to win a Grade 1 race. (They weren't good enough to twin two ungraded stakes races.) A fast strip at Pimlico could be a problem. It also could be a moot point. The Weather Channel's hour-by-hour forecast predicts a 30 percent chance of rain or thunderstorms almost straight through in the 24-plus hours from 6 p.m. Preakness Eve, to the 6:15 Saturday evening post time. And the chance of rain escalates in the forecast to 50 percent shortly after the race, and 60 percent throughout Saturday night. If the track takes on moisture at any time after the Black Eyed Susan card today, and if the heavier or at least more-probable rain comes in just a little earlier than the advance forecast predicts, the field could find itself playing in the Derby champion's birdbath, much to his contentment.

5. David vs. Goliath (or, 'The Birdstone Factor'): In this case, Goliath is a girl, and a talented field she leads, and fate, and the odds, which will still be somewhat stacked against this little gelding, although hardly 50-1 as they were on Derby Day. He's a little guy -- by some reports barely 15 hands -- facing a monumental task. But so was his sire, Birdstone, on the day he stole the Belmont Stakes and a Triple Crown from Smarty Jones at 36-1 odds. Don't doubt for a minute that heart and a spirit can flow from sire and dam to son and daughter, just as surely as more tangible attributes such as color, stature, speed and stamina. Then there are the Preakness myths, of almost biblical proportions, primed for the little hero to overcome. ... "Pimlico is speed-favoring, and the traffic can make it even harder on a closer." He can get through; he's a small horse. ... "But the turns at Pimlico are so tight!" Did you forget he's a small horse? ... "But it is just too big a task." The bigger they come, the harder they fall; eh, Goliath? ... Maybe this 'Bird is just the "David" to do it.

Five reasons why Mine That Bird won't win the Preakness

Can the diminutive Derby dandy pack the same punch at Pimlico's Preakness?

Here are five pretty good reasons why the answer could be "no."

1. Girl Power: Rachel Alexandra is just too good, not just for Mine That Bird, but for all the boys.

2. Beware the Bounce: After running Beyers of 81 and 80 in his prior two races (career highs), 'Bird flew to a 105 in the slop at Churchill. The only thing set up for a bigger bounce would be the kids' new trampoline. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs.)

3. Dirty Little Secret: Mine That Bird has not run well enough over a fast dirt strip to win a Grade 1 race. All four of his wins at age 2 were on the synthetic surface at Woodbine in Canada. His unlikely Derby triumph was in the slop. His only dirt/fast efforts were the aforementioned 81/80 Beyers at Sunland, including fourth beaten almost four lengths in the ungraded Sunland Derby.

4. Borel Bails: No disrespect at all to jockey Calvin Borel; it seems he made the right choice by sticking with a potential champion filly in Rachel Alexandra, with whom he has a five-race win streak. But when the Derby-winning jockey by choice takes off that horse for the Preakness, it can't be a good sign for what he thinks of the horse's chances. O.K., so nobody's ever done it before. Doesn't that prove the point?

5. Trainer Trouble: Has anybody thought that maybe part of the reason Mine That Bird was 50-1 at Churchill wasn't just his lack of a win since October at Woodbine? Or his far-below-par Beyers? Could it maybe have been that his trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., was previously 1-for-34 for 2009? Now that he's 2-for-35, what are the odds he can win two in a row? (Edit: Information elsewhere states that Woolley was 1-for-33 when Mine That Bird won, so he's lost since. Streak broken, new streak to begin?)