Can the diminutive Derby dandy pack the same punch at Pimlico's Preakness?
Here are five pretty good reasons why the answer could be "no."
1. Girl Power: Rachel Alexandra is just too good, not just for Mine That Bird, but for all the boys.
2. Beware the Bounce: After running Beyers of 81 and 80 in his prior two races (career highs), 'Bird flew to a 105 in the slop at Churchill. The only thing set up for a bigger bounce would be the kids' new trampoline. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs.)
3. Dirty Little Secret: Mine That Bird has not run well enough over a fast dirt strip to win a Grade 1 race. All four of his wins at age 2 were on the synthetic surface at Woodbine in Canada. His unlikely Derby triumph was in the slop. His only dirt/fast efforts were the aforementioned 81/80 Beyers at Sunland, including fourth beaten almost four lengths in the ungraded Sunland Derby.
4. Borel Bails: No disrespect at all to jockey Calvin Borel; it seems he made the right choice by sticking with a potential champion filly in Rachel Alexandra, with whom he has a five-race win streak. But when the Derby-winning jockey by choice takes off that horse for the Preakness, it can't be a good sign for what he thinks of the horse's chances. O.K., so nobody's ever done it before. Doesn't that prove the point?
5. Trainer Trouble: Has anybody thought that maybe part of the reason Mine That Bird was 50-1 at Churchill wasn't just his lack of a win since October at Woodbine? Or his far-below-par Beyers? Could it maybe have been that his trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., was previously 1-for-34 for 2009? Now that he's 2-for-35, what are the odds he can win two in a row? (Edit: Information elsewhere states that Woolley was 1-for-33 when Mine That Bird won, so he's lost since. Streak broken, new streak to begin?)
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