MTB favored in Firecracker? What in the world?

Color me dumbfounded.

Mine That Bird sent off as the favorite in the Firecracker Handicap? ... All I could think when I got home and saw the chart after an Independence Day evening cookout with friends was, "What in the world were you people thinking?"

Tizdejavu -- the most obvious horse in the one-mile G2 turf test -- wins and pays $10.20. An easy-as-pie exacta completed by Public Speaker cashes to the tune of $44 for every $2 ticket. And a pretty readily deciphered trifecta of the three most likely horses in the race, including turf journeyman Inca King in third, is worth $188 for every $2 bet.

It's times like these that I really regret the restrictiveness of North Carolina's laws, which let me gamble on a numbers game run by the state, supposedly to fund education (the lottery), but prohibit me from having an online wagering account of any kind for horse racing. Because I wish I could have cleaned out a few of your pockets on this one.

Still, even though I'm seeing it in black and white on an Equibase chart, I have trouble believing it went down that way.

Mine That Bird sent off as the favorite in the Firecracker Handicap?

Clearly, not enough people read this blog, on which I took the opportunity to detail the many reasons why Mine That Bird was more likely to fizzle than sizzle in Sunday's Firecracker. Nevertheless, how could so many people butcher the handicapping job on this one, even if they were doing all their own thinking?

The horse had no prior turf form from which to judge, and his pedigree isn't particularly grass-oriented. He was in very tough against G2 company, including numerous proven turf horses. He just made a barn switch in May to D. Wayne Lukas, which isn't the upgrade it used to be. And, the horse who won last year's Kentucky Derby -- but hasn't won since -- had been on the shelf since a ninth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic last November.

What was there to like?

Of course some bettors love the underdog stories, wanted to see a sharp comeback by the now-famed Derby-upsetter, and Calvin Borel gets over-bet at Churchill on a daily basis. But it isn't like this was a comeback by the duo of Seabiscuit and Red Pollard -- whom by my handicapping, would have had nearly as much chance to win this race as did MTB and Calvin.

Mine That Bird sent off as the favorite in the Firecracker Handicap?

Even in the light of the next day, I ask, "What in the world were you people thinking?"

Mine That Bird: Sizzle or fizzle in Firecracker?

With one big change already behind him, former Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird takes another leap in his racing career Sunday as he makes his 2010 debut (after considerable layoff) in Sunday's Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs -- a switch to the turf.

In May, the 4-year-old's connections moved him from the barn of Chip Wooley -- who trained him for the second-biggest upset in Derby history and to credible performances in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes -- turning him over to Hall-of-Famer D. Wayne Lukas. The Birdstone gelding hasn't raced since an also-ran finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic in November, and a mile and a sixteenth Churchill allowance failed to fill for him recently. So Lukas, feeling the horse needs a race, decided to take a crack at the G2 Firecracker.

And for some reason, the horse has been highweighted at 122 pounds, and installed as the 3/1 morning-line favorite for the race. I just don't see it.

For starters, few horses are ready to fire their best shot after seven months on the shelf. I realize his status as a Grade 1 winner forces the racing secretary's hand a bit in setting the weights. But in this case, a horse who hasn't won since last May and is completely unproven on grass is giving up to eight pounds to everyone else in the field -- nine if also-eligible Baryishnikov draws in. And it isn't like he's made a huge class drop into a restricted stakes; the Firecracker is still a Grade 2 event.

I don't particularly like Mine That Bird's pedigree for the grass, either.

It isn't that his ancestors have been hopeless on the surface. His sire's second dam, Hush Dear (Silent Screen-You All, by Nashua) twice won both the Long Island and Diana handicaps, Grade 2 events, on the lawn. But in his first two seasons at stud, Birdstone's get's average Ragozin figure on dirt (20 3/4) is rather better than their turf figures (22); and neither is as impressive as I'd have expected considering the sire's stakes success among his young. Speaking of that stakes success by Birdstone's get, virtually none of it has been on turf. And Birdstone's sire, Grindstone, a Kentucky Derby winner now banished to Oregon, hasn't particularly been known for getting grass horses at stud.

On the bottom side, Mine That Bird's dam, Mining My Own, is by Smart Strike, who can certainly get a turf horse (grass champion English Channel, etc.). And she's out of a Vice Regent mare in Aspenelle, which doesn't eliminate the notion of turf. But Mining My Own never raced, so we don't know what her particularly affinities might have been in competition. And her one blacktype sibling, Golden Sunray, was a stakes winner on dirt.

Then there's the difficulty of facing the rest of a 14-horse field with plenty of tough turf competition.

Morning-line second choice Tizdejavu (4/1) has three prior graded wins on grass, earned six of his seven lifetime victories on turf, and has annexed at least three blacktype races over this very Churchill course, once already this season, during which he's 2-for-2. Why he isn't favored and why he's getting three pounds from Mine That Bird at 119 is hard for me to explain, though imposts are hardly my specialty.

Inca King (6/1) has at least three Churchill turf stakes wins in his long and successful career. Euroears (also 6/1) has experienced most of his success on dirt, but does have a turf-sprint stakes win. Co-8/1-choices Public Speaker and Attempted Humor have credible turf form on which to draw; the former a grass stakes winner and the latter never off the board on the lawn in five tries. Longer-shot Skipadate (12/1) broke maiden on grass, was a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf entrant in 2009 (11th place) and has two recent allowance wins on grass.

Sheesh, 20/1 shots include Orthodox, a G3 turf winner at Churchill who only carries 114 Sunday under journeyman Jon Court, and British-bred Driving Snow, a minor grass stakes winner in the States and the only horse ever to defeat sublime European champion Sea the Stars, as 2-year-old maidens in the U.K.

Which begs the question, could Lukas have possibly picked a more difficult comeback race for a horse he's been asked to turn completely around?

I can't say I'd be completely blown away by news that Mine That Bird won the Firecracker. But I suspect the best he can come out of this race with is a learning experience -- both for horse and connections, to see if turf is ever again in his future -- and hopefully an outing that sparks a successful second half to 2010.

Bye bye, busted Bird

I was really hoping for a comeback by Summer Bird, but The Blood-Horse reports that the 2009 Belmont Stakes, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner has been retired, unable to return from suffering a hairline fracture last fall while training for the Japan Cup Dirt.

While Mine That Bird won "the big one," the Kentucky Derby, and was a 2-year-old champion in Canada in 2008, it seemed clear that the bird with highest altitude potential was Summer Bird. His Belmont win was impressive. And while he got run off his feet by Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell Invitational, he couldn't have bounced back any better than his Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup victories. He was the first horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to pull off that particular triple. Plus, his fourth-place finish behind Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- Summer Bird's first-ever run over synthetic -- suggested he was talented and versatile enough to perhaps do great things at 4.

Then came the trip to Japan.

I can't fault his breeders and owners, Drs. K.K. and Vilasini "Devi" Jayaraman, for taking such an ambitious shot. The colt seemed up to it. And they were riding high on an outstanding season that had already cemented a 3-year-old championship for their homebred son of Birdstone.

"We've been in racing for 30 years and he gave us our greatest thrills, especially when he won the Belmont Stakes," said K.K. Jayaraman. "He was just a pleasure to be around, and because of him we met a lot of wonderful people. It was a great year, and he took us to places we would never have gone."

The Blood-Horse reports that the Jayaramans would drive to all of Summer Bird's race. I assume they'd have taken a plane to Japan, but that race just wasn't to be.

Upon returning to the States and having surgery to repair his broken cannon bone, Summer Bird (after some rest) went back into training, this time with Tim Ritchey, instead of Tim Ice, who had trained him to the championship season. But after some work with Ritchey, new x-rays determined Summer Bird's leg had not healed enough to withstand the rigors of training and racing. So, he is retired with four wins from just nine starts (which makes me a bit nervous as he heads to stud at an undetermined farm) for $2,323,040.

In his Blood-Horse story, Steve Haskin calls Summer Bird "a throwback to a time when horses were fast, tough and could run all day."

I can agree on two points with Summer Bird; he was pretty fast and could run pretty far by today's standards. Unfortunately, nine starts doesn't particularly suggest "tough."

I hope he gets plenty of very sound mares, and some with stamina of their own. Please don't try to breed Summer Bird to sprinting females in order to get fleeter foals; you'll just as likely end up with a horse that fares poorly at any distance. Not enough speed to sprint, nor enough stamina to route. But, bred to milers and and classic-bred mares, Summer Bird might follow his surprisingly effective young sire in getting a few classic winners of his own.

Let's just hope his get, can get more than nine trips around the yard.

Horse of the Year Rachel's best, and best for Rachel

How do you define "better off?"

That's an important question in light of the results from my recent poll, in which more than two-thirds of respondents (27 out of 40) said they believed that Rachel Alexandra is not "better off, a year after being bought and campaigned by Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen."

I presume most readers who took a stand against Jackson and Asmussen believe that Rachel is not as healthy and fit a horse now as she was last year, or perhaps as she might have been with different handling. Certainly she's beatable now -- defeated twice in a row in desperately close finishes during her first two starts in 2010. And she had proved unbeatable in 2009, going 8-for-8.

I'm going to come down on the side of the minority here. For her utmost impact on racing history, for her value, and for her long-term legacy, I think Rachel Alexandra benefited from Jess Jackson and Steve Asmussen.

What's certain in a situation like this is that nothing can be certain. Hindsight might be 20/20, but speculation (though I love engaging in it, too) usually isn't worth 20 cents.

There are, however, certain truisms of racing and horses. Not the least of these is that some horses are simply better (or at least more dominant among their peers) at age 2 or 3 than they ever will be after, while others are later-maturing.

And one axiom of life that's hard to ignore is this: You must strike while the iron is hot.

When Jackson's Stonestreet Stables acquired Rachel Alexandra after her scintillating, record-breaking victory in last year's Kentucky Oaks, there was little doubt he'd just bought the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

Bought had he bought the best horse?

That handy hindsight tells us probably not, since her unbeaten ways have not carried over into 2010, while Zenyatta continues to stand 17 hands tall at 16-0 lifetime. But by the end of last season, history shows, Jackson had bought the eventual Horse of the Year.

Following her crushing Oaks win, had Rachel stayed in the hands of her first trainer, Hal Wiggins, and her breeder, Dolphus Morrison (who doesn't believe in racing fillies against colts), she would have been pointed to the Black-Eyed Susan-G2 at Pimlico on Preakness Eve. Barring some freak incident or catastrophe, she'd have likely smashed a short field of sophomore fillies by the same sort of margin she'd posted in the Oaks. And while that win would have been another big step toward being champion 3-year-old filly, it would have done little toward earning her a Horse of the Year crown, and virtually nothing toward stamping her career as legendary.

Instead, Jackson and Asmussen entered her in the Preakness. There, Rachel did most of the work on the front end of a 9 1/2-furlong test, put away a talented speed horse in Big Drama (a 7-furlong record-setter) and still had the grit to hold off a gutsy Derby-showing Musket Man and the sharp and fast-closing Derby champ Mine That Bird to claim an historic win. She had beaten boys, she was the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness, and now talk quickly shifted toward whether Rachel Alexandra could become Horse of the Year.

Jackson and Asmussen shrewdly backed off the throttle for Rachel's next start. They entered her at Belmont in the Mother Goose, which drew up predictably short after almost nobody thought it wise to enter their girl against Super Girl. She romped in the Mother Goose, setting stakes records for time and margin, but clearly expended much less effort than had she been asked to face colts and geldings again on the heels of her Preakness win.

Already 6-for-6 on the season with three Grade 1 wins, Rachel was positioned to at least stake a claim to Horse of the Year by collecting two more noteworthy victories. She gathered those in the Haskell Invitational -- where she all but ran Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird and speedy sprinter Munnings off their feet in the slop -- and in September's Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, becoming the first female ever to win that race against older males; a race run since 1954.

By the finish line of her Woodward win, Rachel had done enough -- as the Eclipse voting months later bore out -- to be named Horse of the Year, despite not running in the Breeders' Cup and not facing Zenyatta, who scored an historic win of her own on that championship weekend as the first female ever to win the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The campaign clearly took a lot out of Rachel. She was cooped up (a debatable choice versus true turnout) for months before starting back to work. And unlike her championship season of 2009, she's proved unable to muster the gumption to stave off any and all challengers, getting nipped at the wire in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes by 6-year-old Zardana and nosed out of the La Troienne-G2 at Churchill by Unrivaled Belle.

But is Rachel worse? Isn't it possible that on these dates -- remember, Rachel's first two starts since a lengthy layoff -- a very fit older mare and a rising 4-year-old who is more lightly raced and at the top of her form cycle, were just a little bit better?

And even if Rachel is not her former self, who's to say she would have been anyway, even with less aggressive handling?

John Shirreffs has done a masterful job with two-time champion older female Zenyatta. She didn't race at all as a juvenile, and Shirreffs thereafter brought the giant mare along slowly, allowing her to grow into her body and her talent. As a result, she is as brilliant at age 6, if not more so, than she was during her first championship season at age 4.

But there's no guarantee that a softer handling of Rachel Alexandra at age 3 would have resulted in a 4-year-old filly to rival Zenyatta at 4. A more conservative course for Rachel at 3 could have still resulted in a 3-year-old filly title, but hardly Horse of the Year, and she still might not be any better at age 4 than she's proven so far to be.

And let's face it: Unlike Jerry and Ann Moss, who have chosen to bring Zenyatta back at age 6 for another season of racing (for which we should be cascading them with roses), there's almost no chance that Jess Jackson has any interest in racing Rachel at age 5, let alone 6. She'll be in the breeding shed next late-February or early March, being covered by Jackson's two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. So what was better for Rachel's future value as a broodmare (and the prospective prices of her foals)? Two really good seasons and one "lesser" championship among fillies and mares?

I think -- for her value (a practical concern in a sport that is a business) and for her legacy -- Rachel Alexandra was better served by one full-throttle season in which she shook the racing world and made history almost every time she ran, with the well-earned reward of 2009 Horse of the Year.

It's a trainer's job to recognize how and when to get the most out of his horse. Nobody could have gotten more out of Rachel Alexandra in 2009 than did Steve Asmussen; she was Horse of the Year.

Did that leave her "short" in 2010? It's impossible to say with any certainty; we can only be guessing. So that's no more than a definite maybe.

But it's safe to say that if Rachel Alexandra had been handled more conservatively last year, she'd only have been the champion 3-year-old filly, not Horse of the Year.

And this year, she probably still wouldn't be able to beat Zenyatta.

Rachel one year post-purchase: Better for it?

I launched this blog one year ago tomorrow with a lengthy pondering of the Rachel Alexandra purchase by Jess Jackson.

The brilliant 3-year-old filly had just completely left a field of her contemporaries in the Kentucky Oaks, leaving some to wonder whether she might have belonged in the Derby, instead. We would know within less than two weeks whether Rachel Alexandra "belonged" with the boys, as Jackson's camp, including trainer Steve Asmussen, pointed her toward the Preakness, instead of Pimlico's Black Eyed Susan, the traditional filly target. And her jockey, Calvin Borel, begged-off his Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to pilot his favored filly to victory in the Preakness, the first female to win the race since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Here we are a year later, and many steps have been run; races and championships won. Rachel was set on a course that her breeder and first owner, Dolphus Morrison, would never have taken; racing her three times against males. Morrison is among those owners (and trainers, and fans) who think that fillies belong in filly races, colts and geldings have "their" races, and never the twain shall meet.

Rachel proved up to the task in 2009. For Jackson and Asmussen, she rebounded from her gritty Preakness win with a cakewalk by record margin and time in a short-field running of the Mother Goose. Then she trounced a field of boys -- including Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird -- over a wet track in the Haskell Invitational, becoming only the second filly to win that summer classic. (The first was champion Serena's Song in 1995.) Last, she gutted out a front-running win in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, the first female ever to win that race, which has been run annually since 1954.

Though she skipped the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita -- owner Jackson had said for months he would not run his filly on the Pro-Ride synthetic course there, referring to such surfaces as "plastic" -- Rachel Alexandra's historic campaign was rewarded with Eclipse awards, not only as champion 3-year-old filly (which she was beyond doubt), but for Horse of the Year, to the chagrin of those who favored lifetime-unbeaten older mare Zenyatta.

The filly who had already set three records in 2009 for Morrison and his trainer and dear friend, Hall Wiggins -- that is, stakes-record times in the Golden Rod at Churchill and Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park, and a margin record in the Oaks -- went on for Jackson/Asmussen to set two records in the Mother Goose, and to win three indisputably historic victories vs. males. With Morrison and Wiggins it isn't an unreasonable assumption that Rachel would have been 3-year-old champion filly anyway. But with Jackson and Asmussen's aggressive handling, she became Horse of the Year.

So it would be difficult to argue that Rachel Alexandra was sold from a good situation into a lesser one.

Or would it?

After a grueling 3-year-old campaign, Rachel was laid-up for months without a work. She has come back to run tenaciously in a pair of stakes races -- and has lost them both by slim margins, the New Orleans Ladies to Zardana and most recently the La Troienne-G2 to Unrivaled Belle. Losing to an elder like Zardana in a comeback race after a long layoff is less surprising than being nipped at the wire by a fellow 4-year-old who'd made half as many lifetime starts and never won above the Grade 3 level.

Was Rachel Alexandra merely ahead of her age group as a 3-year-old, and now they've caught up? If so, she would hardly be the first horse to have been as good (especially by comparison) as she'd ever be at age 3 (or in some cases even at age 2), but only a "good" or even "average" horse at age 4 and beyond.

Or is she just not the same filly that she was in 2009? Has she "lost" something along the way? A step, or a little bit of heart? ... And if so, whose fault (if anyone's) is that? Should she have been handled more conservatively -- say, like a John Shirreffs might do, and did with Zenyatta at ages 3 and 4?

So on the anniversary eve of this blog, a poll: Rachel Alexandra, better off with Jackson and Asmussen?

Vote. And discuss in the comments thread, please. I can't wait to see what some of you think on this subject.

I'll tell you what I believe after the poll closes.

Meanwhile, I hope more than nine people vote, unlike my last Rachel poll. Geez, she gets beat once (now twice) and all the Rachel fans go into hiding?

Racing should ride Rachel vs. Zenyatta

The year ahead might be the best in recent history for horse racing fans. Potentially even a rejuvenation of the game in the eyes of the sports media and the general public.

We have a rivalry. Potentially more ardent, bitter and intriguing than it was two days ago.

Rachel Alexandra's crowning Monday night as the Eclipse Award winner for Horse of the Year has practically set ablaze the hair of some supporters of her chief competition for the award -- unbeaten mare Zenyatta.

One of the most incredible fillies of the last 50 years -- a filly who went 8-for-8 with five Grade 1 wins including three against males -- is being disparaged as undeserving of recognition as Horse of the Year.

Fairly knowledgeable horse people and race fans in a Yahoo discussion group I frequent have complained that the voting came down in Rachel's favor because of some unnamed "perks" voters allegedly receive. ... Don't ask me what those "perks" might be.

"RA being HOY is a joke, she doesn't deserve to stand in Zenyatta's shadow," another familiar contributor suggested. "She barely beat the males that Z destroyed in the Classic."

Wait ... what?

Exactly two horses were common opponents between Rachel's season and Zenyatta's scintillating Breeders' Cup Classic win: Summer Bird and Mine That Bird.

Rachel smashed Summer Bird by six lengths in the Haskell Invitational. Zenyatta beat him by three in the Classic.

Granted, Zenyatta trounced Mine That Bird in the Breeders' Cup, while Rachel barely held him off as he was closing fast in the Preakness way back in May. But nobody can argue a case for Mine That Bird getting better throughout 2009. Rachel beat the Kentucky Derby winner at the peak of his form, in a race that hadn't been won by a filly since Nellie Morse in 1924.

Still, the same Yahoo group member who made the (debunked) comparison insists, "RA is a very nice filly but not HOY in any year."

Even Zenyatta's owner, Jerry Moss, got involved a little bit, lamenting that Rachel Alexandra won despite running in mostly "restricted races" throughout 2009.

Well they weren't restricted to New York-breds, Jerry. Sure, Rachel received weight allowances, being a 3-year-old running against males and particularly against older horses in the Woodward. But those are the rules of racing; neither Rachel nor her connections write the rules, they just race under them.

Meanwhile, Zenyatta's 2009 schedule was about as "restricted" as one could get. Knowing that the Breeders' Cup would be run over synthetic at Santa Anita (again), Moss and trainer John Shirreffs essentially stayed home all year. That left Zenyatta -- an absolute synthetic-track monster -- looming dark and foreboding over the California circuit, where she was already 8-for-8 lifetime, and a dominating 8-for-8. Aside from stablemate Life Is Sweet (who went on to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic), there just wasn't much talent running against Z this year in her four starts prior to the Classic.

And the one time Zenyatta ventured outside California in 2009 -- for a scheduled start in the Louisville Distaff at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend, a race in which she was 4/5 on the morning line -- Shirreffs scratched her when rain soaked the track.

Regardless whether they've ever raced, which clearly they haven't, many Zenyatta supporters are absolutely convinced their mare would win any meeting of the pair, regardless.

"I did not want the two to meet because of their very different racing styles," wrote one contributor to the Yahoo group I frequent. That is, Rachel is a front-runner and Zen a closer. "But after Zenyatta's performance in the BC Classic ... I know that Zenyatta can and will beat Rachel ... and then the fans will just say, well of course, Zenyatta is older."

Anyone who has watched more than a few horse races should know that isn't such a sure bet. The outcome of any race depends on too many factors -- track conditions, distance, other horses in the field and how the race sets up -- to consider either runner a lock in a race between two dominant females.

If Rachel is relatively loose on the lead, she will be hard to pass -- even, I predict, at a 10-furlong distance that many of her detractors believe her connections are avoiding like the plague. The filly will fight.

And in a big group, with traffic problems or even merely moving over a traditional dirt track the likes of which she's rarely seen, Zenyatta might run into trouble she can't overcome, or simply not fire her best shot.

Anyone who is completely convinced that Zenyatta will beat Rachel should they meet this year should review her Preakness and take pause.

Mine That Bird, a devout closer who was then at the top of his game, could not reel her in even though she broke from the 13-hole (from which no prior Preakness winner had ever started) and did most of the work on the front end, pressed by a very fleet colt in Big Drama.

A number of observers, including retired jockey Jerry Bailey, have suggested with some evidence that Mine That Bird's chances in the Preakness were compromised by a bad ride from Mike Smith, who didn't give him the best trip, particularly not the shortest route through the inevitable traffic on the turn for home. ... That's the same Mike Smith who rides Zenyatta as she closes from the clouds.

And Rachel would relish rain on race-day, while Shirreffs would probably scratch Zenyatta or else have to run her even though the conditions would be advantage-Rachel.

To be sure, Rachel has her defenders, as well. My hand is raised. And a TVG network message board thread is titled "Moss is a pitiful loser" -- filled with Rachel and Zenyatta fans engaging in a sharp exchange. (Plus a few level heads.)

And it's beautiful.

Controversy spurs interest. And for once, a nationwide racing controversy doesn't involve cheating or drugs (though some Zen supporters praise John Shirreffs as a cleaner trainer than Rachel's handler Steve Asmussen) or broken-down horses being put to death.

It's a quarrel of epic proportions and a squabble that digs deep to the very roots of why mankind started racing horses against one another in the first place.

Whose horse is faster?

With Zenyatta confirmed to be in training rather than destined for an immediate trip to the breeding shed, a potentially stellar 2010 awaits.

I expect her to run a prep -- maybe the 9-furlong, Grade 2 Strub Stakes against males on Feb. 6. Then Zen would turn up next in the Santa Anita Handicap, where she'll almost certainly be sent off at a short price and probably run her lifetime record to 16-for-16 (assuming a prep win) with a stirring performance reminiscent of her Classic win, becoming in the process the first female to win that historic race.

Rachel, meanwhile, is still on the shelf after her own historic Woodward win. But (unless there's a physical issue of which we're unaware) she should become visible again on a training track fairly soon.

For the good of horse racing, these ladies should meet -- repeatedly, at different distances and venues -- during 2010.

Rachel will need to get back into training and have a prep or two before these arch-rivals-who-have-never-met, first meet. After all, Zenyatta appears to be sharp right now, today, and destined to race at least by the Big 'Cap in March if not before. I don't expect to see Rachel in a race at all until April, maybe at best.

But I hope that the summer and fall leading up the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in November will give us Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta going head-to-head two or three times. Preferably at least once against males, to hopefully make sure the field is of a good size and decent quality, with some speed to test Rachel and other closers to launch their bid with Zen.

With a long season of good luck, good form and good health for both females, the 2010 Breeders' Cup could be a "rubber match" of sorts, and the deciding factor in the Horse of the Year voting that the Rachel-less B.C. failed to be in 2009.

And for once -- with these two amazing females carrying horse racing's colors -- perhaps our game will be the talk of the sports media throughout the year, and not just from the first Saturday in May until the final strides of the Belmont Stakes a few short weeks later.

Classic aside, I'd still vote Rachel

If the AP's Female Athlete of the Year voting is any indication seems that Zenyatta -- historic winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic -- is gaining the edge over flashy filly Rachel Alexandra in the pre-Eclipse handicapping for Horse of the Year.

Zenyatta finished second to Serena Williams in that balloting. Rachel Alexandra was a distant seventh.

But for my money, I'd still take Rachel. Here's why.

Zenyatta -- while undefeated lifetime over 14 races -- was the winner of exactly one truly challenging race in 2009; said Breeders' Cup Classic.

Yes, that race was a great effort amid a global and talented field. And it was an historic victory; Zenyatta was the first female ever to win in the Classic.

But it was one race. Run over a track on her "home" circuit in Southern California. Which Zenyatta never left during the course of 2009. And while the field was stacked with some very nice horses, frankly a lot of them were turf horses (Gio Ponti finished second), including Euros whom, frankly, nobody had any real idea whether they'd perform well with the long ship, the comparative heat of Southern California, and the synthetic surface.

For such a seemingly talented field, the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic wasn't exactly a group from which any horse could emerge victorious. In fact, Zenyatta was not only favored at a little less than 3/1, but only Rip Van Winkle (at a little over 3/1) was anywhere close in the odds.

Final order of finish, with odds (rounded) and comments:
1. Zenyatta, 3/1*, an unbeaten synthetic monster racing at home.
2. Gio Ponti, 12/1, turf horse.
3. Twice Over(GB), 9/1, turf horse.
4. Summer Bird, 7/1, 3-year-old with no prior synthetic form.
5. Colonel John, 12/1, a synthetic G1 winner in Southern California.
6. Richard's Kid, 11/1, another synthetic, G1, SoCal male.
7. Awesome Gem, 52/1.
8. Regal Ransom, 39/1.
9. Mine That Bird, 14/1, hadn't won since the Kentucky Derby.
10. Rip Van Winkle(IRE), 3/1, quit early, a turf horse with no prior synthetic form.
11. Einstein(BRZ), 10/1, a horse I liked here due to prior synthetic form, but who did nothing.
12. Girolamo, 25/1, how the hell was he only 25/1?

Now, by my count, from that group of also-rans, there are exactly three Grade 1 synthetic victories: One each for Colonel John (Santa Anita Derby at 3), Richard's Kid (2009 Pacific Classic) and Einstein (2009 Santa Anita Handicap).

Zenyatta had six G1 synthetic wins (granted, among females) going into the race.

I wrote a blog just before race-day that Zenyatta might be a bet-against in the Classic, but based solely on synthetic form -- and why should we have looked anywhere else? -- I don't know what in the world I was thinking. She was sent off as the favorite and probably should've been 3/5 instead of 3/1.

Meanwhile, much was asked in 2009 of Rachel Alexandra.

After she crushed 3-year-old fillies by record lengths in the Kentucky Oaks -- a race from which some handicappers predicted a bounce -- she was sold to Jess Jackson and wheeled back for the Preakness, against colts. There (granted, with a weight break) she was the brave winner, holding off a late charge from the Derby victor in Mine That Bird, despite having done almost all the work on the front end. Winning the Preakness was something no filly had done since Nellie Morse in 1924.

After beating the colts at Pimlico, Rachel returned to the 3-year-old filly ranks to set another record-lengths mark, this time in winning the Mother Goose Stakes. The ease with which she crushed her own age and gender in the Oaks and Mother Goose was simply breathtaking.

So, with seemingly no more challenges facing her in the 3-year-old filly ranks, Jackson and Co. sent her back again to face boys her own age. Her next race was a fleet finish over a sloppy track in the Haskell, splashing home in 1:47.21 for 9 furlongs. In that race, she crushed Summer Bird -- who was later sent off as third-favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- by six lengths.

Some of Rachel's detractors imply that her connections ducked the distance by skipping the Travers Stakes in order to run in the Woodward Stakes at 9 furlongs.

But, frankly, what was a girl to do?

If Rachel had gone to the Travers and had beaten 3-year-old colts again, so fricking what? And if she was sent somewhere, anywhere, to run 10 furlongs and beat older fillies and mares not named Zenyatta, the yawns from race fans and Eclipse voters alike would have been even bigger.

So Jess Jackson and Co. pointed her to the Woodward Stakes, a race -- like the Breeders' Cup Classic and with a much longer history -- that had never been won by a female.

Yes, Rachel got a weight break in the Woodward. Yes, Calvin Borel flogged her down the stretch. Yes, she barely won that race. ... But she won.

And since the world seems so fond of touting the field-strength for the Breeders' Cup Classic -- a race, as noted, with exactly three G1 wins over synthetic among the 11 horses that faced Zenyatta -- let's weigh the strength of Rachel's six opponents in that Woodward.

Post, horse, comments:
1. Da' Tara, surprise winner of the 2008 Belmont Stakes, but that's a Grade 1 win on dirt.
2. Bullsbay, won 2009 Whitney H.-G1.
3. Rachel Alexandra.
4. Cool Coal Man, G2 winner on dirt.
5. Macho Again, won 2009 Stephen Foster H.-G1.
6. It's a Bird, two G3 wins on dirt and DQ'ed from first in the Oaklawn H.-G2.
7. Asiatic Boy, four group-level wins in Dubai, G1-placed on three continents.
8. Past the Point, second in the Woodward S.-G1, a year prior.

So, Zenyatta faced 11 opponents with three lifetime G1 wins on the "surface of the day," synthetic. Rachel in the Woodward faced six opponents with an equal number of prior G1 wins, three, on the surface over which they'd be racing that day, dirt. The Woodward field also had a four-times GSW and three-times G1-placed horse in Asiatic Boy, a G2 winner, a multiple G3 winner, and the defending runner-up in this very race.

Was the Woodward really all that "light" a field? And the Breeders' Cup Classic -- in hindsight particularly, noting how the horses actually performed -- really one of the deepest Cup fields ever, as some have suggested?

I think the answer to both questions is, "no."

Throughout 2009, consistently more was asked of Rachel Alexandra than of Zenyatta. The 3-year-old filly recorded historic wins against males in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, and record-shattering victories against her own age and gender in the Kentucky Oaks and the Mother Goose. Zenyatta meanwhile beat up on a talented stablemate in Life is Sweet, and otherwise the same cast of SoCal distaff characters, throughout a conservatively (and brilliantly) managed season -- until owner Jerry Moss and trainer John Shirreffs took their one big shot of the year, and hit the bulls-eye in the Classic.

I'm not being dismissive of Zenyatta's accomplishments; 14-for-14 lifetime is a big deal (although the first nine shouldn't count toward 2009 HOTY voting) and being the first mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic -- in exhilarating fashion, no less -- certainly is memorable.

But Zenyatta went 5-for-5 in 2009 with one signature win. Rachel Alexandra went 8-for-8 with at least five victories that were noteworthy, either for their ease (Oaks, Mother Goose) or for beating boys in Grade 1 races (Preakness, Haskell, Woodward).

Were I voting -- and I'm not -- Rachel Alexandra would receive my ballot.

That doesn't mean Zenyatta is undeserving. And I think it's more likely that she'll win Horse of the Year.

But I truly don't believe Zenyatta did as much over the course of the year to earn it.

Zenyatta: Root for, but bet against in Classic?

Less than 36 hours from now, we'll have no more questions about one of the greatest race mares of the last 20 years.

Zenyatta -- champion older female in 2008 and an unbeaten 13-for-13 against females -- has been entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic against the opposite gender.

It isn't just the step-up to facing males that is a question mark for the 5-year-old Street Cry mare. Zenyatta also never has raced the 10-furlong distance of the Classic.

Both of those unknowns -- plus her being favored on the morning line at 5/2 and, I believe, not likely to drift a lot higher -- lead me to figure that Zenyatta is a bet-against in this race.

After all, the talented mare has not been quite as dominating against her own gender in four races of 2009 (best Equibase speed figure a 116, six points below her career high). And now she tackles a field of 12 boys and men with their own distinguished list of accomplishments.

Eight of Zenyatta's male Classic opponents have won at 10 furlongs, a total of 12 times. Most notable are Gio Ponti (3-for-4 lifetime at the distance) and Summer Bird (2-for-3).

Three of the horses have victories over Santa Anita's all-weather strip, paced by Colonel John, who has won half of his six lifetime starts on that track and just missed a Grade 1 victory by a neck in the Goodwood there on Oct. 10.

Zenyatta is a California-circuit all-weather-track specialist, but despite a field peppered with East Coast-shippers, foreign invaders and turf horses hoping for crossover success, half of her opponents (including Gio Ponti) do have synthetic track victories to their credit.

And while the older males will carry 126 pounds and the mare does get a weight break for gender (123 pounds), the impost on the several talented 3-year-old colts and geldings in the group is even lower, at 122.

This isn't to say that Zenyatta has no strengths. She isn't favored without cause.

Beyond her unblemished lifetime mark, she is 4-for-4 over the track at Santa Anita, has the highest career all-weather speed figure per Equibase (122), and a jockey in Mike Smith who both knows her and knows Santa Anita (51 percent W-P-S during the meeting, third-best in the field among riders).

There's every reason to believe that a Street Cry mare out of a dam by Kris S. should be able to get 10 furlongs.

And she has been handled masterfully, but carefully, by trainer John Shirreffs, whom I doubt would cast her in this role if he didn't think she could handle it. ... I particularly like that Shirreffs has worked her at 6 furlongs four times in a row prepping for the added distance; she's the only horse in the field to have worked 6f more than once in the past few months and of the others, only two have drilled longer than 5f at all.

So if Zenyatta has all that going for her and is still a bet-against, for whom would I wager? Which one of these dozen males is going to beat her?

It's a tough call, but I'm leaning toward the 7-year-old veteran, Einstein, and I love the morning-line odds of 12/1.

Einstein is a battle-hardened competitor with G1 wins on both turf and synthetic. The Helen Pitts trainee is the only other horse in the field with a 120 or higher Equibase speed figure on an all-weather track, and he earned that 120 in winning the Santa Anita Handicap in March -- going this distance, over this track.

He's fallen off the radar a bit, but with only a bit of better racing luck, he wouldn't have.

Were it not for a trip in which, per the charts, he "bobbled," was checked, and was bumped, perhaps Einstein wins the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 13 to become only the second horse (the other being Lava Man) to have G1 wins on all three racing surfaces. Instead, he loses by a length to Macho Again and by a nose to Asiatic Boy (neither in this Classic field), finishing third.

Coming off a poor effort in the Arlington Million on grass (won by Gio Ponti with Einstein fifth beaten 8 1/2 lengths), Einstein came back to miss by only a neck to Richard's Kid (also in the B.C. Classic field) in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, another G1 on synthetic.

Pitts has Einstein working well. An Oct. 11 four-furlong move at Churchill was done in a less-than-scintillating 49 seconds, but the times were slow that day and he was still fifth of 58 at the distance. Same story on Oct. 18 when a 1:01 for 5f was still second of 60. And, he's since followed up with a bullet 59.8 for 5f (best of 54 at CD on Oct. 25), plus a Santa Anita work of 47.80 for 4f (6 of 45).

I think Einstein could be sitting on a big race, and that could make him the man to take down Zenyatta.

Others certainly have a chance.

Irishman Rip Van Winkle is quite talented, with several losses to certain European champ Sea the Stars, but how will the 3-year-old Euro turf horse handle older males and females, a U.S. synthetic track, and the ship all the way to California?

Colonel John can win at SA (3-for-6) and win at 10f (1-for-4). Richard's Kid is coming in off a G1 all-weather win at this distance two starts back and a career-high Equibase figure in the Goodwood last out. Gio Ponti relishes 10f but his synthetic speed figures are a notch below his brilliance on grass. Summer Bird, Quality Road and Mine That Bird all are talented, G1 winners, but as 3-year-olds can they best their elders?

Looking for a long-shot, particularly to fill out the exotics? Awesome Gem at 30/1 on the outside is 8-for-12 lifetime win/place/show on synthetics and 20-for-30 on the board overall, is coming in off a G2 dirt win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and has a career-best all-weather speed figure of 116 -- better than Gio Ponti (114) and Mine That Bird (114) and only two clicks slower than Richard's Kid, all of whom are at 12/1.

This year's Breeders' Cup Classic certainly is an intriguing race.

Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss are taking a big chance with Zenyatta, risking her unbeaten lifetime record to race a new distance and against males, presumably in a gambit to dethrone likely favorite Rachel Alexandra as Horse of the Year.

I'm definitely not rooting against Zenyatta in her quest. But at 5/2, I just don't like the odds.

For Yanks, Gitano Hernando's upset in Oak Tree's Goodwood Stakes an upsetting Classic preview

No doubt Gitano Hernando's victory in Saturday's Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at the Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita is considered an upset.

But there's also little question that it serves as an unsettling foreshadowing to the Breeders' Cup in November for anyone fielding an American horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The 3-year-old Hernando colt was only Group 3-placed, with a recent conditioned-stakes win on an all-weather track at Wolverhampton to his name, when he departed Italian-born trainer Marco Botti's string at Newmarket in England to be stabled with Paddy Gallagher in California. Then Gitano Hernando at 18/1 upends a field of the West Coast's best in his first U.S. start for owners Team Valor International.

The upstart Brit-bred's victims included 4-year-old multiple Grade 1 winners Colonel John and Tiago, recent Pacific Classic S.-G1 winner Richard's Kid, this year's Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, dual Grade 2 winner on the Cal circuit Informed, G2 winner and G1-placed Tres Borrachos, and Grade 3 winner and multiple-G1-placed Chocolate Candy.

Only the additions of a Well Armed -- who had surgery in August -- or the likes of Rail Trip and Einstein -- whose connections decided not to prep them again between the Pacific Classic and the Breeders' Cup -- could have made that group any more accomplished. And take note that fourth place in the Goodwood, as it did in the Pacific Classic, went to Parading, a former G2 winner on turf.

If Jess Jackson needed any more supporting evidence for his decision months ago to skip this Breeders' Cup with Rachel Alexandra, he certainly keeps getting it. It's too soon to know whether synthetic tracks everywhere are playing specifically in favor of turf-bred horses -- after all, Gitano Hernando also broke maiden at Wolverhampton and is now 3-for-3 on synthetic and just 1-for-4 on turf; he has not been equally successful on both surfaces. But it certainly seems that California's synthetic tracks can often tilt toward the turfers.

Gitano Hernando isn't nominated to the Breeders' Cup, and Team Valor would have to pay $250,000 to supplement him to the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic. But his win should have U.S. horses quaking in their Queen's Plates even if he isn't supplemented to racing's "world championships."

That's because Europe is sending much better than him to Santa Anita next month. Whether or not hands-down European champion Sea the Stars races in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Rip Van Winkle, a Galileo 3-year-old who has won half of his eight starts including two straight British Group 1 races (and who has suffered three of his four losses in races won by Sea the Stars), is likely Breeders' Cup-bound in hopes of escaping Sea the Stars' shadow.

Conditioner Aidan O'Brien has confirmed that European 2-year-old champion of 2008 and four-time Group 1 winner Mastercraftsman -- a recent Group 3 winner in his first try on an all-weather track at Dundalk (in a B.C. Dirt Marathon win-and-you're-in) and also three times a victim of Sea the Stars in his four defeats -- is likewise headed to Santa Anita for the Classic.

Both Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman were clearly superior 3-year-olds to Gitano Hernando in the U.K.

And, apparently the 12-furlong distance of the Breeders' Cup Turf has spooked the connections of Eclipse turf champion-contender Gio Ponti into a run at the Classic instead. Gio Ponti was upset by Interpatation in the mile-and-a-half Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont his last out, and his camp has decided not to attempt 12 furlongs again at Santa Anita.

Certainly America's best main-track horses will be there for the Classic, including those from the eastern half of the country such as Grade 1 winner Macho Again and three-times G1-winning 3-year-old Summer Bird. But neither has any promising synthetic track form to hang his bridle on. And we've just seen the Best of the West (minus Rail Trip) beaten over the Pro-Ride course by what previously had been an unequivocally second-tier Euro.

So America's hopefuls are stuck with a Breeders' Cup Classic in which the upper crust of likely contenders -- heaven help them if Sea the Stars shows, plus Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman, Gio Ponti, even the aforementioned Einstein -- are all Grade- or Group 1 winners on grass. Which might mean unbeaten Zenyatta, though a synthetic-track monster in her own right, is better off stuck running against mares again in the Please-Change-the-Name-Back-to-Distaff.

And certainly it could be that all the main-track Yanks will be stuck looking forward to 2010 when the Classic gets back onto real, live dirt at Churchill Downs.

What mission next for Midshipman?

Midshipman, the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse 2-year-old champion, made a successful return to the races Friday after a lengthy layoff.

The 3-year-old by Unbridled's Song was an impressive winner in allowance/optional claiming company at Belmont Park, his first try on a conventional dirt surface and first race since that B.C. Juvenile win.

I have to admit I'm not sure what to think of this horse. Clearly he's talented, as are so many of the Unbridled's Song line. But it's disquieting that so many of them, including Midshipman, struggle with their soundness. Is he back for a good while, or will he unravel again sooner rather than later or never?

Midshipman was taken off the Kentucky Derby trail at the end of February after suffering a reportedly minor soft tissue injury while training at Godolphin's Al Quoz Stables in Dubai. Having missed the Derby -- which is tough enough to win by going wide to circle the field on the far turn and which Godolphin keeps trying to win by circling the globe -- the connections were obviously in no real hurry to push the horse on his return to the races. And that was no doubt in Midshipman's best interests.

So, what next for Midshipman?

It isn't impossible for the horse to be ready for the Breeders' Cup again in November. With a win on Sept. 18, he could race again in mid-October, and have three to four more weeks between that start and the big weekend. The Breeders' Cup would be his third race off the layoff, often viewed by handicappers as a horse finally primed to make his best effort.

If he emerges from this comeback win in stellar shape, I wouldn't rule out an appearance out west at Santa Anita in the Oct. 10 Goodwood Stakes, a Grade 1 race also targeted by this year's Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird. It's a huge step up from A/OC company to G1, but certainly Midshipman -- when "right" -- is a Grade 1 horse. His Del Mar Futurity win and the B.C. Juvenile last year proved that. If he were entered and ran well in the Goodwood, there should be little fear of trying to run back in four weeks over the same course in the Breeders' Cup Classic among an older handicap division that has been debated as suspect.

Another possibility, should Midshipman stay in the east and on conventional dirt, might be the G2 Meadowlands Cup in New Jersey, won last year by Arson Squad. That 9-furlong race in what could or should be lesser company might be an easier second-race-back for Midshipman.

If I were among the connections, either course would likely be fine with me; again, provided the horse is "right" and stays that way.

Any thoughts from my fellow members of the peanut gallery?

Borel, at least for now, is best for the Bird

Now maybe this case is settled. For two more races, anyway.

Calvin Borel -- once again, for the third time -- is the jockey of Mine That Bird.

Borel's first ride with the 3-year-old reigning Canadian juvenile champion was of course the duo's stunning, rail-skimming, upset win in a sloppy Kentucky Derby on May 2. Obviously it's the biggest win of the gelding's life.

When Borel took off the horse to ride super-filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, Mine That Bird didn't get a good trip, nor the world's greatest ride, from Mike Smith. The Bird finished a gaining and frustrating second to Borel and the history-making filly.

Smith took off the horse to ride on the west coast on Belmont Stakes day, and Borel was back in the irons at Belmont. Inexperienced over "Big Sandy," Borel has been criticized for moving with Mine That Bird too soon. The horse flattened out in deep stretch and finished a tired third.

And, off goes Calvin, this time by choice of the horse's connections, trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and owners Mark Allen's Double Eagle Ranch and Buena Suerte Equine.

Their choice of replacement? Mike Smith, who in the West Virginia Derby gave the horse a ride very similar to Borel's mistake in the Belmont; moving too soon. Even Smith thought so, calling it "total rider error."

Smith was booked to ride Mine That Bird in the Travers, but the horse was scratched after undergoing minor surgery for an entrapped epiglottis. So now, contractually, the Kentucky Derby winner was again without a rider. And his connections reach back in the hat, stir the available jockeys around a bit, and pull out ... the same guy who won with him in the Derby and lost aboard him in the Belmont.

Calvin Borel worked the gelding Monday at Saratoga. He'll ride Mine That Bird in the Goodwood S.-G1 on Oct. 10 at Santa Anita, and -- unless some other big change occurs -- in the Breeders' Cup Classic at the same track on Nov. 7.

It's the best choice for a horse that must be starting to feel like a displaced foster child.

What we do know is the following:

1. Mine That Bird ran the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby.

2. He's pretty much run his guts out every time since, with trip and tactics -- not lack of talent -- being primarily what's gotten him beat.

3. Borel was responsible for one of those rides, but it was at a mile and a half and over a track with which Borel (through no fault of his own) was completely inexperienced; a race, the Belmont Stakes, that has reputation for undoing very good horses and riders.

I really believe that, paired-up again and given 9 or 10 furlongs, Calvin Borel will push the button at the right time and offer Mine That Bird his best shot to win in the Goodwood and the Breeders' Cup Classic.

That doesn't mean he will win. But if he loses these two, I'd like to think it won't be due to the ride he was given.

Bummer, no 'Bird' rematch in Travers

It probably isn't the biggest shock, but I was bummed to learn that Mine That Bird will miss the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga this weekend as he recovers from recent epiglottis surgery.

It had been expected that the relatively simple procedure wouldn't make him miss the race, but a complication -- so minor as to perhaps not really be a complication at all -- has prompted the Kentucky Derby winner's connections to take a pass on the race as a measure of absolute caution.

I had been looking forward to the Travers as a race laden with talent in which perhaps both 3-year-old classic-winning sons of Birdstone -- Belmont-winner Summer Bird being the other -- would be coming from well off the pace and collecting the leaders in the stretch to make for the finish of the season.

And it's still got the makings of a great race. Quality Road indeed has something to prove, the talented Charitable Man might have more in the tank at the end of 10 furlongs than he did in the Belmont at 12, and Kensei has been the impressive winner of the Dwyer and Jim Dandy in succession.

Mine That Bird instead will be headed to the Goodwood in October at Santa Anita, which should be a good prep race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, at the same track over which that race will be run.

'Bird's surgery 'smooth as silk'

Good news Wednesday from the Mine That Bird camp; the Kentucky Derby winner's surgery for an entrapped epiglottis was called "smooth as silk" by trainer Chip Woolley.

The surgery was performed by Dr. Patricia Hogan at the Ruffian Equine Medical Center. Mine That Bird isn't even expected to miss his next start, scheduled to be in the $1 million Travers S.-G1 at Saratoga on Aug. 29.

Hogan called the horse "a wonderful patient" and said the procedure only took "about 15 seconds."

Woolley -- as is his way -- took it upon himself to drive Mine That Bird to the hospital, which across the street from Belmont Park in greater New York City.

Mine That Bird going under the knife

It's a minor procedure, but Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is having surgery today for an "entrapped epiglottis." The operation is not expected to keep him out of the Travers S.-G1 at Saratoga on Aug. 29, according to trainer Chip Woolley.

The horse ran a dull five furlongs in nearly 1:04 this morning at Saratoga, last of 12 at the distance, which must have prompted some vetting and the realization that surgery was needed.

Surgery will be performed by Dr. Robert Hunt at the Ruffian Equine Medical Center.

While the operation isn't considered a major treatment, we all know how those "minor procedures" can turn out sometimes in both horse and human health care. Good luck to Mine That Bird and his connections; may everything at the hospital go just as planned.

And may somebody at NTRA get around to writing that Bennie Woolley Jr. biography that still hasn't been added to the organization's Web site, three and a half months after the trainer's horse won the biggest race in America.

Jackson says Rachel headed to Haskell

Owner Jess Jackson said Tuesday afternoon that his fabulous 3-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra -- unbeaten in 2009 and winner of both the Kentucky Oaks in dominating fashion over her own gender and gamely in the Preakness Stakes against the boys -- will face colts again in her next start, the Haskell Invitational H.-G1 at Monmouth Park.

"Rachel Alexandra is progressing well after her stakes record victory in the Mother Goose," said Jackson, owner of Stonestreet Stables, in a statement to the media. "We are all looking forward to seeing this great athlete perform again against both colts and fillies."

In the Haskell, Rachel will get a slightly shorter trip than she weathered against colts and geldings in the Preakness. The Aug. 2 Haskell is 9 furlongs, while the Preakness distance is 9.5f. And, having done all the work on the front end, had the Preakness been about five jumps longer (or had Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird gotten a slightly better trip under replacement jockey Mike Smith), Rachel might well have been caught.

She won't face Mine That Bird in the Haskell, but she is likely to face a horse that has beaten him -- Summer Bird, another son of Birdstone and winner of the Belmont Stakes, in which the Derby winner came home third.

The Haskell sets up as a good race for Rachel, however. She gets to run for $1 million, in G1 company against males, but on a weekend when two other races have drawn away some of the competition.

The Jim Dandy S.-G2 at Saratoga (where she's training) is a summer classic at America's mecca for horse racing, and though its purse is half that of the Haskell's and its grade is lower, it always attracts nice horses. Among them could be Charitable Man, who last ran in the Belmont, and Warrior's Reward, who stumbled badly at the start as the 4-5 favorite in the Dwyer S.-G2 (under Rachel's regular rider, Calvin Borel) and might be in the Jim Dandy seeking redemption.

Meanwhile, Mine That Bird is committed to the $750,000, Grade 2 West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer Park. And other top 3-year-olds have fallen by the wayside, with Quality Road seemingly not yet ready to return in time for the Jim Dandy, and Musket Man, who was third in both the Derby and Preakness, hurt and taken out of training.

That doesn't mean the Haskell won't be a challenge. Whomever else is entered, Rachel will likely be on the front end with the determined closer Summer Bird coming to catch her late. He'll stand a very good chance if there's any speed in the race to press Rachel on the pace.

Whether every race is stacked, they'll all be interesting as we watch to see which horses move on toward the Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga at the end of August. We know that's where Mine That Bird is pointed if he comes out of West Virginia well. Likely Charitable Man and Summer Bird, as well, and who knows which other colts and geldings.

And, depending on how she fares in the Haskell, maybe which filly.

Breeders' Cup cuts would leave series incomplete

With new board members in place, the Breeders' Cup is considering cutting back in the future on its two-day slate of 14 races, suggesting that having so many divisions is just too darned hard to keep up with, for fans and for the series.

The series of win-and-you're-in races and other Breeders' Cup-affiliated stakes also would be culled in the process.

"The concern is, how do we lead into 14 different races, in 14 different divisions," Greg Avioli, CEO of the Breeders' Cup, told The Daily Racing Form. "It's very difficult to do with 14 divisions."

I find myself asking this a lot of the higher-ups in racing's hierarchy, but are they serious?

For me this is just the latest piece of evidence in the growing case that horse racing is being run by people who have forgotten what they're marketing, how to market it, or even to whom they should be marketing.

Ray Paulick was there to blog the whole thing and he seems to like what was said. And the notion of having a strategic plan is well and good. But I'm rarely one to back the concept of addition by subtraction.

Any horse racing fan -- even neophytes -- should be able to grasp that a true championship day of racing will have events for 2-year-olds and for older horses, on dirt (or some facsimile thereof) and on turf, at distances ranging from short, to medium, to long and very long. And, that those races will be held for both males and females.

Done right, that necessitates at least 14 divisions.

Juveniles at present are handed four races: colts and fillies, dirt and turf, all around two turns. There are no short races for 2-year-olds at the Breeders' Cup. And that still leaves only 10 more races over the two days for older horses, male and female.

With an open mile race on both dirt and turf, open dirt and turf sprints, plus the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Breeders' Cup Turf and the new Marathon (lengthened to a more serious distance this year at 14 furlongs), just three races are carded strictly for older females; a dirt sprint, the Don't Call It A Distaff and the Filly & Mare Turf.

Economics aside -- the quality and quantity of racing only being considered -- the smartest move the Breeders' Cup has made in recent memory was the addition of new races to support unrepresented divisions, such as the turf juveniles, sprinting females and horses whose pedigrees faintly hearken to the day when the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at two miles. (The BC has fouled up the win-and-your in schedule, and by putting all the filly and mare races on Friday, but those are different blog posts.)

For the Breeders' Cup to go back on that commendable decision to serve all breeders and their horses, not to mention fans of distance and turf racing, and to ax races when they only just started to get it right, would be a huge mistake.

But that seems to be the direction the Breeders' Cup is headed. Last summer, the organization pegged Satish Sanan -- board member and owner of Padua Stables -- to lead a team in creating a new strategic plan. Work on the strategy began in January, aided by William Field, a British-based consultant for Value Partners, a management consulting firm.

The strategic plan for the future appears to have been to set up a rear-guard action and plot a retreat -- but a withdrawal so grand that the Breeders' Cup will become "the most prestigious and popular competition in world racing," according to Field.

Let's face it, competition for that title isn't very widespread. Aside from the historic Royal Ascot meeting -- where most American owners and trainers not named Wesley Ward fear to tread -- and Dubai World Cup day, exactly which other events are vying for the title of "most prestigious and popular competition in world racing?"

And considering Sheikh Mohammed has the bucks to drop £45 million on a 3,300-acre British farm with 39 houses, primarily to "use the grounds for shooting" -- and in six months will open the most spectacular new racetrack in the world -- it would seem the Breeders' Cup is already down in the count 0-and-2.

What the Breeders' Cup has going for it that nobody else can touch is the fundamental truth that around the world almost everybody who owns a racehorse -- Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum included -- wants to win big races on American soil. Even if only to win the competition of "us" vs. "them." Sure, they have marquee events in their own countries, and for most of the season those races keep the average overseas connections from shipping here to race. (Of course, Sheikh Mohammed has horses everywhere, all the time.)

But on Breeders' Cup weekend, they're all here, almost anyone who thinks his or her horse has a prayer of winning anything.

Field, the British consultant, concedes that's what it should be all about.

"The important thing is that the event in November is regarded as the event (horse owners) want to come to and there is nothing more that they would treasure than to win a race there," Field said.

So keep giving them races to win.

The fewer races, the fewer opportunities for horse owners to achieve that dream of a Breeders' Cup horse or -- praise be -- a Breeders' Cup champion. And, the fewer people who will be willing to make a downpayment on what for 99.99 percent of us is a pipe dream.

Breeders' Cup officials say the series will run a $6 million deficit this year, on total estimated expenses of $50 million. Of those expenses, $30.5 million is committed to purse outlays. (The Dubai World Cup offers $21.25 million in purses for just seven races and you can expect that to escalate at Meydan.)

Breeders' Cup expects foal nomination fee collections in 2009 to drop to $16 million from a total of $20 million in 2008; that's $4 million of the deficit in itself. But even mentioning the possibility of scaling back the number of races (not just on Breeders' Cup day, but the series' lower-level races nationwide throughout the year, races in which lesser connections have more of a chance) will only further discourage smaller breeders and stallion-owners from paying to nominate -- starting now, and not just when the cuts actually happen.

Face it -- fewer opportunities to win equals fewer people willing to pay the price of admission. I for one was thrilled with the prospect of the Marathon, hoping that as a small breeder it might be my best chance to someday have a Breeders' Cup horse without spending a mint for a fashionable sire who throws million-dollar 2-year-olds.

In the end -- what Breeders' Cup management doesn't even seem to get -- is that it isn't just about the money. It's about the dream. The snowball's chance. The faintest glimmer of hope for getting a horse to a Breeders' Cup race, even if it's "just" the $1 million Turf Sprint or the paltry $500,000 Marathon.

Of course, maybe it isn't about that if you're a millionaire, as I presume the preponderance of board members are, probably several times over. Maybe if you're in that financial echelon, the Breeders' Cup Classic isn't worth winning if it isn't a $5 million race.

But if money were the sole reason for running, wouldn't Jess Jackson be content to let Rachel Alexandra take a bite off that $2 million Ladies Classic apple, even if it's only around $500 large for second place to Zenyatta? Why does she run for the 60 percent winner's share of $300,000 in the Mother Goose, yet Jackson swears his filly will skip the Breeders' Cup at many times the financial reward because it will be run (for the second straight year) on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface, which he thinks puts Rachel at a disadvantage?

Seems to him it's more about the winning.

If money were the primary reason for sending a horse the Breeders' Cup, would the asking price reportedly being bandied about for a gelded Mine That Bird be in the vicinity of $4 million, a third more than the Kentucky Derby winner could even hope to earn from the Classic?

Seems as though posing for the win photo after a Breeders' Cup race is prize enough.

Obviously money makes the world go around, and perhaps no industry is more acutely aware of that than the horse business, where the yearling auctions are broadcast live on the Web and covered as extensively as some college football bowl games. Even so, the prices being paid by the high-end buyers don't correspond in the slightest with what the horse is likely ever to earn back at the track.

I mean, $16.7 million for The Green Monkey?

Sure, the breeding side of the business is where colt-buyers in particular hope to recoup their investment, via sky-high syndication deals.

But if you don't realize that the adventure between that sale purchase and the breeding shed -- the heady prospects of following your horse through 2-year-old maiden-breakers and stakes like the Hopeful and the Champagne, to the Derby Trail, to Churchill on the first Saturday in May, to Saratoga and Del Mar in the summer, to the Breeders' Cup and potentially seasons beyond -- is really what those buyers are purchasing for hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, then you have lost sight of what horse racing is all about.

It's hard to imagine that people so deeply involved in the sport could be so oblivious to its aura, but maybe they're too close to the game. Could be they've been around it too long, particularly those who are perennially at its pinnacle. Perhaps the spotlight is bright enough on the sport that the two-way mirrored windows of its ivory towers allow us to see in, but blind the people who run the game to the outside world.

Maybe they really don't know anymore what they're marketing, how to market it, or even to whom it must be marketed.

What you're selling, Breeders' Cup, is what every red-blooded American wants from his life and, in racing, what every horseman worldwide pines for -- just a chance. An opportunity to compete against the best and to show what he's got. An inkling that maybe, just maybe, his horse is in with a shot.

Every race cut from the schedule kills that dream not just for somebody somewhere, but for dozens and hundreds of somebodies everywhere.

I understand that in the eyes of some -- horsemen and fans alike -- not all of the current card's 14 races are created equal. It's O.K. that the Breeders' Cup Marathon will never carry the purse of the Classic. But the race needs to be there as the championship, the season's ultimate goal, for the type of horses it fits. It isn't the biggest race of Breeders' Cup weekend, but it's the biggest race of the year for them.

For the Breeders' Cup to be the championship thoroughbred racing event worldwide, there must be a race for every genre of racehorse: juveniles and elders, male and female, main track and turf, from short distances to the very long.

Anything less must be graded incomplete.

Close race in jockey poll: Can Chantal Sutherland beat Somebody Else?

Could Mike Smith retain the mount on Mine That Bird if our voters were in charge? Can Chantal Sutherland take down "Somebody Else?" What's with all the support for Richard Migliore?

These questions and more are being asked by the world today ... well, primarily by me ... as I'm intrigued with the results so far in the poll I opened (see column at left) on who my readers would hire as the replacement jockey for Calvin Borel if they owned Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

Noting that Mike Smith's two-race commitment still doesn't get the horse's connections through to the Breeders' Cup with a guaranteed jockey, I recommended Sutherland and said that Migliore also was a favorite of mine.

Among voters in the poll, Sutherland leads among my suggested names -- by a vote, 7-6-6 over Smith and Migliore -- but "Somebody Else" has the overall lead with 8 votes.

So if you have voted for "Somebody Else," I'd particularly like for you to stop back by and put the name of that "Somebody Else" in the comments section here, to see if there's a consensus pick emerging from the "none of the above" crowd.