Classic aside, I'd still vote Rachel

If the AP's Female Athlete of the Year voting is any indication seems that Zenyatta -- historic winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic -- is gaining the edge over flashy filly Rachel Alexandra in the pre-Eclipse handicapping for Horse of the Year.

Zenyatta finished second to Serena Williams in that balloting. Rachel Alexandra was a distant seventh.

But for my money, I'd still take Rachel. Here's why.

Zenyatta -- while undefeated lifetime over 14 races -- was the winner of exactly one truly challenging race in 2009; said Breeders' Cup Classic.

Yes, that race was a great effort amid a global and talented field. And it was an historic victory; Zenyatta was the first female ever to win in the Classic.

But it was one race. Run over a track on her "home" circuit in Southern California. Which Zenyatta never left during the course of 2009. And while the field was stacked with some very nice horses, frankly a lot of them were turf horses (Gio Ponti finished second), including Euros whom, frankly, nobody had any real idea whether they'd perform well with the long ship, the comparative heat of Southern California, and the synthetic surface.

For such a seemingly talented field, the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic wasn't exactly a group from which any horse could emerge victorious. In fact, Zenyatta was not only favored at a little less than 3/1, but only Rip Van Winkle (at a little over 3/1) was anywhere close in the odds.

Final order of finish, with odds (rounded) and comments:
1. Zenyatta, 3/1*, an unbeaten synthetic monster racing at home.
2. Gio Ponti, 12/1, turf horse.
3. Twice Over(GB), 9/1, turf horse.
4. Summer Bird, 7/1, 3-year-old with no prior synthetic form.
5. Colonel John, 12/1, a synthetic G1 winner in Southern California.
6. Richard's Kid, 11/1, another synthetic, G1, SoCal male.
7. Awesome Gem, 52/1.
8. Regal Ransom, 39/1.
9. Mine That Bird, 14/1, hadn't won since the Kentucky Derby.
10. Rip Van Winkle(IRE), 3/1, quit early, a turf horse with no prior synthetic form.
11. Einstein(BRZ), 10/1, a horse I liked here due to prior synthetic form, but who did nothing.
12. Girolamo, 25/1, how the hell was he only 25/1?

Now, by my count, from that group of also-rans, there are exactly three Grade 1 synthetic victories: One each for Colonel John (Santa Anita Derby at 3), Richard's Kid (2009 Pacific Classic) and Einstein (2009 Santa Anita Handicap).

Zenyatta had six G1 synthetic wins (granted, among females) going into the race.

I wrote a blog just before race-day that Zenyatta might be a bet-against in the Classic, but based solely on synthetic form -- and why should we have looked anywhere else? -- I don't know what in the world I was thinking. She was sent off as the favorite and probably should've been 3/5 instead of 3/1.

Meanwhile, much was asked in 2009 of Rachel Alexandra.

After she crushed 3-year-old fillies by record lengths in the Kentucky Oaks -- a race from which some handicappers predicted a bounce -- she was sold to Jess Jackson and wheeled back for the Preakness, against colts. There (granted, with a weight break) she was the brave winner, holding off a late charge from the Derby victor in Mine That Bird, despite having done almost all the work on the front end. Winning the Preakness was something no filly had done since Nellie Morse in 1924.

After beating the colts at Pimlico, Rachel returned to the 3-year-old filly ranks to set another record-lengths mark, this time in winning the Mother Goose Stakes. The ease with which she crushed her own age and gender in the Oaks and Mother Goose was simply breathtaking.

So, with seemingly no more challenges facing her in the 3-year-old filly ranks, Jackson and Co. sent her back again to face boys her own age. Her next race was a fleet finish over a sloppy track in the Haskell, splashing home in 1:47.21 for 9 furlongs. In that race, she crushed Summer Bird -- who was later sent off as third-favorite in the Breeders' Cup Classic -- by six lengths.

Some of Rachel's detractors imply that her connections ducked the distance by skipping the Travers Stakes in order to run in the Woodward Stakes at 9 furlongs.

But, frankly, what was a girl to do?

If Rachel had gone to the Travers and had beaten 3-year-old colts again, so fricking what? And if she was sent somewhere, anywhere, to run 10 furlongs and beat older fillies and mares not named Zenyatta, the yawns from race fans and Eclipse voters alike would have been even bigger.

So Jess Jackson and Co. pointed her to the Woodward Stakes, a race -- like the Breeders' Cup Classic and with a much longer history -- that had never been won by a female.

Yes, Rachel got a weight break in the Woodward. Yes, Calvin Borel flogged her down the stretch. Yes, she barely won that race. ... But she won.

And since the world seems so fond of touting the field-strength for the Breeders' Cup Classic -- a race, as noted, with exactly three G1 wins over synthetic among the 11 horses that faced Zenyatta -- let's weigh the strength of Rachel's six opponents in that Woodward.

Post, horse, comments:
1. Da' Tara, surprise winner of the 2008 Belmont Stakes, but that's a Grade 1 win on dirt.
2. Bullsbay, won 2009 Whitney H.-G1.
3. Rachel Alexandra.
4. Cool Coal Man, G2 winner on dirt.
5. Macho Again, won 2009 Stephen Foster H.-G1.
6. It's a Bird, two G3 wins on dirt and DQ'ed from first in the Oaklawn H.-G2.
7. Asiatic Boy, four group-level wins in Dubai, G1-placed on three continents.
8. Past the Point, second in the Woodward S.-G1, a year prior.

So, Zenyatta faced 11 opponents with three lifetime G1 wins on the "surface of the day," synthetic. Rachel in the Woodward faced six opponents with an equal number of prior G1 wins, three, on the surface over which they'd be racing that day, dirt. The Woodward field also had a four-times GSW and three-times G1-placed horse in Asiatic Boy, a G2 winner, a multiple G3 winner, and the defending runner-up in this very race.

Was the Woodward really all that "light" a field? And the Breeders' Cup Classic -- in hindsight particularly, noting how the horses actually performed -- really one of the deepest Cup fields ever, as some have suggested?

I think the answer to both questions is, "no."

Throughout 2009, consistently more was asked of Rachel Alexandra than of Zenyatta. The 3-year-old filly recorded historic wins against males in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, and record-shattering victories against her own age and gender in the Kentucky Oaks and the Mother Goose. Zenyatta meanwhile beat up on a talented stablemate in Life is Sweet, and otherwise the same cast of SoCal distaff characters, throughout a conservatively (and brilliantly) managed season -- until owner Jerry Moss and trainer John Shirreffs took their one big shot of the year, and hit the bulls-eye in the Classic.

I'm not being dismissive of Zenyatta's accomplishments; 14-for-14 lifetime is a big deal (although the first nine shouldn't count toward 2009 HOTY voting) and being the first mare to win the Breeders' Cup Classic -- in exhilarating fashion, no less -- certainly is memorable.

But Zenyatta went 5-for-5 in 2009 with one signature win. Rachel Alexandra went 8-for-8 with at least five victories that were noteworthy, either for their ease (Oaks, Mother Goose) or for beating boys in Grade 1 races (Preakness, Haskell, Woodward).

Were I voting -- and I'm not -- Rachel Alexandra would receive my ballot.

That doesn't mean Zenyatta is undeserving. And I think it's more likely that she'll win Horse of the Year.

But I truly don't believe Zenyatta did as much over the course of the year to earn it.

Zenyatta: Root for, but bet against in Classic?

Less than 36 hours from now, we'll have no more questions about one of the greatest race mares of the last 20 years.

Zenyatta -- champion older female in 2008 and an unbeaten 13-for-13 against females -- has been entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic against the opposite gender.

It isn't just the step-up to facing males that is a question mark for the 5-year-old Street Cry mare. Zenyatta also never has raced the 10-furlong distance of the Classic.

Both of those unknowns -- plus her being favored on the morning line at 5/2 and, I believe, not likely to drift a lot higher -- lead me to figure that Zenyatta is a bet-against in this race.

After all, the talented mare has not been quite as dominating against her own gender in four races of 2009 (best Equibase speed figure a 116, six points below her career high). And now she tackles a field of 12 boys and men with their own distinguished list of accomplishments.

Eight of Zenyatta's male Classic opponents have won at 10 furlongs, a total of 12 times. Most notable are Gio Ponti (3-for-4 lifetime at the distance) and Summer Bird (2-for-3).

Three of the horses have victories over Santa Anita's all-weather strip, paced by Colonel John, who has won half of his six lifetime starts on that track and just missed a Grade 1 victory by a neck in the Goodwood there on Oct. 10.

Zenyatta is a California-circuit all-weather-track specialist, but despite a field peppered with East Coast-shippers, foreign invaders and turf horses hoping for crossover success, half of her opponents (including Gio Ponti) do have synthetic track victories to their credit.

And while the older males will carry 126 pounds and the mare does get a weight break for gender (123 pounds), the impost on the several talented 3-year-old colts and geldings in the group is even lower, at 122.

This isn't to say that Zenyatta has no strengths. She isn't favored without cause.

Beyond her unblemished lifetime mark, she is 4-for-4 over the track at Santa Anita, has the highest career all-weather speed figure per Equibase (122), and a jockey in Mike Smith who both knows her and knows Santa Anita (51 percent W-P-S during the meeting, third-best in the field among riders).

There's every reason to believe that a Street Cry mare out of a dam by Kris S. should be able to get 10 furlongs.

And she has been handled masterfully, but carefully, by trainer John Shirreffs, whom I doubt would cast her in this role if he didn't think she could handle it. ... I particularly like that Shirreffs has worked her at 6 furlongs four times in a row prepping for the added distance; she's the only horse in the field to have worked 6f more than once in the past few months and of the others, only two have drilled longer than 5f at all.

So if Zenyatta has all that going for her and is still a bet-against, for whom would I wager? Which one of these dozen males is going to beat her?

It's a tough call, but I'm leaning toward the 7-year-old veteran, Einstein, and I love the morning-line odds of 12/1.

Einstein is a battle-hardened competitor with G1 wins on both turf and synthetic. The Helen Pitts trainee is the only other horse in the field with a 120 or higher Equibase speed figure on an all-weather track, and he earned that 120 in winning the Santa Anita Handicap in March -- going this distance, over this track.

He's fallen off the radar a bit, but with only a bit of better racing luck, he wouldn't have.

Were it not for a trip in which, per the charts, he "bobbled," was checked, and was bumped, perhaps Einstein wins the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 13 to become only the second horse (the other being Lava Man) to have G1 wins on all three racing surfaces. Instead, he loses by a length to Macho Again and by a nose to Asiatic Boy (neither in this Classic field), finishing third.

Coming off a poor effort in the Arlington Million on grass (won by Gio Ponti with Einstein fifth beaten 8 1/2 lengths), Einstein came back to miss by only a neck to Richard's Kid (also in the B.C. Classic field) in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, another G1 on synthetic.

Pitts has Einstein working well. An Oct. 11 four-furlong move at Churchill was done in a less-than-scintillating 49 seconds, but the times were slow that day and he was still fifth of 58 at the distance. Same story on Oct. 18 when a 1:01 for 5f was still second of 60. And, he's since followed up with a bullet 59.8 for 5f (best of 54 at CD on Oct. 25), plus a Santa Anita work of 47.80 for 4f (6 of 45).

I think Einstein could be sitting on a big race, and that could make him the man to take down Zenyatta.

Others certainly have a chance.

Irishman Rip Van Winkle is quite talented, with several losses to certain European champ Sea the Stars, but how will the 3-year-old Euro turf horse handle older males and females, a U.S. synthetic track, and the ship all the way to California?

Colonel John can win at SA (3-for-6) and win at 10f (1-for-4). Richard's Kid is coming in off a G1 all-weather win at this distance two starts back and a career-high Equibase figure in the Goodwood last out. Gio Ponti relishes 10f but his synthetic speed figures are a notch below his brilliance on grass. Summer Bird, Quality Road and Mine That Bird all are talented, G1 winners, but as 3-year-olds can they best their elders?

Looking for a long-shot, particularly to fill out the exotics? Awesome Gem at 30/1 on the outside is 8-for-12 lifetime win/place/show on synthetics and 20-for-30 on the board overall, is coming in off a G2 dirt win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and has a career-best all-weather speed figure of 116 -- better than Gio Ponti (114) and Mine That Bird (114) and only two clicks slower than Richard's Kid, all of whom are at 12/1.

This year's Breeders' Cup Classic certainly is an intriguing race.

Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss are taking a big chance with Zenyatta, risking her unbeaten lifetime record to race a new distance and against males, presumably in a gambit to dethrone likely favorite Rachel Alexandra as Horse of the Year.

I'm definitely not rooting against Zenyatta in her quest. But at 5/2, I just don't like the odds.