Mine That Bird: Sizzle or fizzle in Firecracker?

With one big change already behind him, former Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird takes another leap in his racing career Sunday as he makes his 2010 debut (after considerable layoff) in Sunday's Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs -- a switch to the turf.

In May, the 4-year-old's connections moved him from the barn of Chip Wooley -- who trained him for the second-biggest upset in Derby history and to credible performances in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes -- turning him over to Hall-of-Famer D. Wayne Lukas. The Birdstone gelding hasn't raced since an also-ran finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic in November, and a mile and a sixteenth Churchill allowance failed to fill for him recently. So Lukas, feeling the horse needs a race, decided to take a crack at the G2 Firecracker.

And for some reason, the horse has been highweighted at 122 pounds, and installed as the 3/1 morning-line favorite for the race. I just don't see it.

For starters, few horses are ready to fire their best shot after seven months on the shelf. I realize his status as a Grade 1 winner forces the racing secretary's hand a bit in setting the weights. But in this case, a horse who hasn't won since last May and is completely unproven on grass is giving up to eight pounds to everyone else in the field -- nine if also-eligible Baryishnikov draws in. And it isn't like he's made a huge class drop into a restricted stakes; the Firecracker is still a Grade 2 event.

I don't particularly like Mine That Bird's pedigree for the grass, either.

It isn't that his ancestors have been hopeless on the surface. His sire's second dam, Hush Dear (Silent Screen-You All, by Nashua) twice won both the Long Island and Diana handicaps, Grade 2 events, on the lawn. But in his first two seasons at stud, Birdstone's get's average Ragozin figure on dirt (20 3/4) is rather better than their turf figures (22); and neither is as impressive as I'd have expected considering the sire's stakes success among his young. Speaking of that stakes success by Birdstone's get, virtually none of it has been on turf. And Birdstone's sire, Grindstone, a Kentucky Derby winner now banished to Oregon, hasn't particularly been known for getting grass horses at stud.

On the bottom side, Mine That Bird's dam, Mining My Own, is by Smart Strike, who can certainly get a turf horse (grass champion English Channel, etc.). And she's out of a Vice Regent mare in Aspenelle, which doesn't eliminate the notion of turf. But Mining My Own never raced, so we don't know what her particularly affinities might have been in competition. And her one blacktype sibling, Golden Sunray, was a stakes winner on dirt.

Then there's the difficulty of facing the rest of a 14-horse field with plenty of tough turf competition.

Morning-line second choice Tizdejavu (4/1) has three prior graded wins on grass, earned six of his seven lifetime victories on turf, and has annexed at least three blacktype races over this very Churchill course, once already this season, during which he's 2-for-2. Why he isn't favored and why he's getting three pounds from Mine That Bird at 119 is hard for me to explain, though imposts are hardly my specialty.

Inca King (6/1) has at least three Churchill turf stakes wins in his long and successful career. Euroears (also 6/1) has experienced most of his success on dirt, but does have a turf-sprint stakes win. Co-8/1-choices Public Speaker and Attempted Humor have credible turf form on which to draw; the former a grass stakes winner and the latter never off the board on the lawn in five tries. Longer-shot Skipadate (12/1) broke maiden on grass, was a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf entrant in 2009 (11th place) and has two recent allowance wins on grass.

Sheesh, 20/1 shots include Orthodox, a G3 turf winner at Churchill who only carries 114 Sunday under journeyman Jon Court, and British-bred Driving Snow, a minor grass stakes winner in the States and the only horse ever to defeat sublime European champion Sea the Stars, as 2-year-old maidens in the U.K.

Which begs the question, could Lukas have possibly picked a more difficult comeback race for a horse he's been asked to turn completely around?

I can't say I'd be completely blown away by news that Mine That Bird won the Firecracker. But I suspect the best he can come out of this race with is a learning experience -- both for horse and connections, to see if turf is ever again in his future -- and hopefully an outing that sparks a successful second half to 2010.

Zenyatta: Root for, but bet against in Classic?

Less than 36 hours from now, we'll have no more questions about one of the greatest race mares of the last 20 years.

Zenyatta -- champion older female in 2008 and an unbeaten 13-for-13 against females -- has been entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic against the opposite gender.

It isn't just the step-up to facing males that is a question mark for the 5-year-old Street Cry mare. Zenyatta also never has raced the 10-furlong distance of the Classic.

Both of those unknowns -- plus her being favored on the morning line at 5/2 and, I believe, not likely to drift a lot higher -- lead me to figure that Zenyatta is a bet-against in this race.

After all, the talented mare has not been quite as dominating against her own gender in four races of 2009 (best Equibase speed figure a 116, six points below her career high). And now she tackles a field of 12 boys and men with their own distinguished list of accomplishments.

Eight of Zenyatta's male Classic opponents have won at 10 furlongs, a total of 12 times. Most notable are Gio Ponti (3-for-4 lifetime at the distance) and Summer Bird (2-for-3).

Three of the horses have victories over Santa Anita's all-weather strip, paced by Colonel John, who has won half of his six lifetime starts on that track and just missed a Grade 1 victory by a neck in the Goodwood there on Oct. 10.

Zenyatta is a California-circuit all-weather-track specialist, but despite a field peppered with East Coast-shippers, foreign invaders and turf horses hoping for crossover success, half of her opponents (including Gio Ponti) do have synthetic track victories to their credit.

And while the older males will carry 126 pounds and the mare does get a weight break for gender (123 pounds), the impost on the several talented 3-year-old colts and geldings in the group is even lower, at 122.

This isn't to say that Zenyatta has no strengths. She isn't favored without cause.

Beyond her unblemished lifetime mark, she is 4-for-4 over the track at Santa Anita, has the highest career all-weather speed figure per Equibase (122), and a jockey in Mike Smith who both knows her and knows Santa Anita (51 percent W-P-S during the meeting, third-best in the field among riders).

There's every reason to believe that a Street Cry mare out of a dam by Kris S. should be able to get 10 furlongs.

And she has been handled masterfully, but carefully, by trainer John Shirreffs, whom I doubt would cast her in this role if he didn't think she could handle it. ... I particularly like that Shirreffs has worked her at 6 furlongs four times in a row prepping for the added distance; she's the only horse in the field to have worked 6f more than once in the past few months and of the others, only two have drilled longer than 5f at all.

So if Zenyatta has all that going for her and is still a bet-against, for whom would I wager? Which one of these dozen males is going to beat her?

It's a tough call, but I'm leaning toward the 7-year-old veteran, Einstein, and I love the morning-line odds of 12/1.

Einstein is a battle-hardened competitor with G1 wins on both turf and synthetic. The Helen Pitts trainee is the only other horse in the field with a 120 or higher Equibase speed figure on an all-weather track, and he earned that 120 in winning the Santa Anita Handicap in March -- going this distance, over this track.

He's fallen off the radar a bit, but with only a bit of better racing luck, he wouldn't have.

Were it not for a trip in which, per the charts, he "bobbled," was checked, and was bumped, perhaps Einstein wins the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs on June 13 to become only the second horse (the other being Lava Man) to have G1 wins on all three racing surfaces. Instead, he loses by a length to Macho Again and by a nose to Asiatic Boy (neither in this Classic field), finishing third.

Coming off a poor effort in the Arlington Million on grass (won by Gio Ponti with Einstein fifth beaten 8 1/2 lengths), Einstein came back to miss by only a neck to Richard's Kid (also in the B.C. Classic field) in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, another G1 on synthetic.

Pitts has Einstein working well. An Oct. 11 four-furlong move at Churchill was done in a less-than-scintillating 49 seconds, but the times were slow that day and he was still fifth of 58 at the distance. Same story on Oct. 18 when a 1:01 for 5f was still second of 60. And, he's since followed up with a bullet 59.8 for 5f (best of 54 at CD on Oct. 25), plus a Santa Anita work of 47.80 for 4f (6 of 45).

I think Einstein could be sitting on a big race, and that could make him the man to take down Zenyatta.

Others certainly have a chance.

Irishman Rip Van Winkle is quite talented, with several losses to certain European champ Sea the Stars, but how will the 3-year-old Euro turf horse handle older males and females, a U.S. synthetic track, and the ship all the way to California?

Colonel John can win at SA (3-for-6) and win at 10f (1-for-4). Richard's Kid is coming in off a G1 all-weather win at this distance two starts back and a career-high Equibase figure in the Goodwood last out. Gio Ponti relishes 10f but his synthetic speed figures are a notch below his brilliance on grass. Summer Bird, Quality Road and Mine That Bird all are talented, G1 winners, but as 3-year-olds can they best their elders?

Looking for a long-shot, particularly to fill out the exotics? Awesome Gem at 30/1 on the outside is 8-for-12 lifetime win/place/show on synthetics and 20-for-30 on the board overall, is coming in off a G2 dirt win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and has a career-best all-weather speed figure of 116 -- better than Gio Ponti (114) and Mine That Bird (114) and only two clicks slower than Richard's Kid, all of whom are at 12/1.

This year's Breeders' Cup Classic certainly is an intriguing race.

Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss are taking a big chance with Zenyatta, risking her unbeaten lifetime record to race a new distance and against males, presumably in a gambit to dethrone likely favorite Rachel Alexandra as Horse of the Year.

I'm definitely not rooting against Zenyatta in her quest. But at 5/2, I just don't like the odds.

No great surprise: Sea The Stars retired

His connections at one point had said chances were "50-50" that the certain European champion, recent Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Sea The Stars, would run in next month's Breeders' Cup Classic in the United States.

But I'm unsurprised at Tuesday's news that the 3-year-old Cape Cross colt has been retired. In fact, through absolutely no particular genius or prescience, I had predicted it.

I'd have to say that owner Christopher Tsui and trainer John Oxx have made the right choice for the horse. By European standards, there was nothing left for him to do. And American sentiments and standards really weren't relevant since Sea The Stars is almost certain to land at stud next spring in Ireland.

After losing in his debut at age 2 -- fourth under a blanket, in an 18-horse field, to three future graded-stakes horses -- Sea The Stars never lost again in eight more starts. All six of his races at age 3 were Group 1 stakes, and of course he won them. That included an historically unprecedented annexation of the English Derby-Guineas "double" plus the Arc.

While not at all surprised, I cannot say that I take the news of his retirement without disappointment. I wanted to witness Sea The Stars on the track at age 4. Might he have been even better? Of course, beyond the prospect of catastrophic injury, his connections had to consider that the horse might've come back to the field a bit and found a way to lose a few. Having won the very biggest races in England, Ireland and France, it's difficult to imagine that much of any win streak continued into -- or all the way through -- 2010, would have elevated his stud fee significantly.

Under the circumstances, retirement almost certainly is the best business decision for the Mr. Tsui and the best decision in the interests of the horse, if not the ideal outcome for fans.

So if you do desire to watch Sea The Stars perform at age 4, you now must be prepared to hand over a very serious, albeit as yet unannounced, price of admission.

And bring an approved mare.

Poll: STS over Rachel, 2-1

The votes are in, and my readers, at least, heavily side with Sea The Stars over Rachel Alexandra as the "best horse you won't see" at this year's Breeders' Cup.

Truth be told, Sea The Stars isn't definitely out of the Breeders' Cup. Owner Christopher Tsui says it's 50-50 whether the Irish-bred Cape Cross colt will run for the first time on an all-weather surface in trying to win the Breeders' Cup Classic at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in November.

But I figure he won't be there.

Sea The Stars is riding a seven-race win streak, five of them in Group 1 stakes. It's an historically unprecedented season, as well. He was not only the first horse since Nashwan in 1989 to win the English Derby and Two Thousand Guineas "double," but surpassed that feat by becoming the very first to go on and win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He should be hands-down European champion and has little or nothing to prove by winning the Breeders' Cup Classic among a field that is likely to include among its favorites a pair of horses he's beaten several times before: Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman.

Of course, Rachel has had quite the historic 3-year-old campaign of her own. From record-setting romps in the Kentucky Oaks and the Mother Goose Stakes, to beating colts in the Preakness Stakes (first filly to win since Nellie Morse in 1924) and Haskell Invitational, to becoming the first female ever to win the Woodward Stakes against older males, Rachel is easily the Eclipse 3-year-old filly champion on this side of the pond, and the leader in the clubhouse for Horse of the Year.

She's definitely not running in the Breeders' Cup. Principal owner Jess Jackson has made that clear for months, and recently confirmed that her Woodward win would be her last race in 2009.

But at least Jackson says we'll see Rachel on the track in 2010. Sea The Stars is destined for stud duty in Ireland without running at age 4.

Both horses staged historic campaigns. Both were clearly the best of their age and gender -- Rachel perhaps best of both genders -- on their respective continents. And since a majority of my readers are Stateside, I figured a poll between Sea The Stars and Rachel would have relatively close results.

I was wrong. It appears that even American fans are beginning to realize what racing and bloodstock experts have noted for some weeks now -- Sea The Stars is one of the best Europe has seen in ages. He garnered 37 of the 56 votes cast, for 66 percent. Rachel had 18 votes for 32 percent. (One vote was cast for Some Other Horse, namely Caribbean standout Sicotico.)

Of course, the some of the same superlatives used for Sea The Stars can be said of Rachel Alexandra. There have been some great 3-year-old fillies over the past 20 years -- Ashado, Silverbulletday, Go For Wand and others -- but it's hard to ignore that Rachel has done things even the likes of those champions never accomplished.

It will be a bit anticlimactic not to see Rachel and Sea The Stars (presuming he doesn't) running in the Breeders' Cup.

Still, there should be some very good races. And if an American horse manages to rebuff the British Invasion in the Classic, it will be an historic Breeders' Cup weekend in its own right.

For Yanks, Gitano Hernando's upset in Oak Tree's Goodwood Stakes an upsetting Classic preview

No doubt Gitano Hernando's victory in Saturday's Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at the Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita is considered an upset.

But there's also little question that it serves as an unsettling foreshadowing to the Breeders' Cup in November for anyone fielding an American horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

The 3-year-old Hernando colt was only Group 3-placed, with a recent conditioned-stakes win on an all-weather track at Wolverhampton to his name, when he departed Italian-born trainer Marco Botti's string at Newmarket in England to be stabled with Paddy Gallagher in California. Then Gitano Hernando at 18/1 upends a field of the West Coast's best in his first U.S. start for owners Team Valor International.

The upstart Brit-bred's victims included 4-year-old multiple Grade 1 winners Colonel John and Tiago, recent Pacific Classic S.-G1 winner Richard's Kid, this year's Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, dual Grade 2 winner on the Cal circuit Informed, G2 winner and G1-placed Tres Borrachos, and Grade 3 winner and multiple-G1-placed Chocolate Candy.

Only the additions of a Well Armed -- who had surgery in August -- or the likes of Rail Trip and Einstein -- whose connections decided not to prep them again between the Pacific Classic and the Breeders' Cup -- could have made that group any more accomplished. And take note that fourth place in the Goodwood, as it did in the Pacific Classic, went to Parading, a former G2 winner on turf.

If Jess Jackson needed any more supporting evidence for his decision months ago to skip this Breeders' Cup with Rachel Alexandra, he certainly keeps getting it. It's too soon to know whether synthetic tracks everywhere are playing specifically in favor of turf-bred horses -- after all, Gitano Hernando also broke maiden at Wolverhampton and is now 3-for-3 on synthetic and just 1-for-4 on turf; he has not been equally successful on both surfaces. But it certainly seems that California's synthetic tracks can often tilt toward the turfers.

Gitano Hernando isn't nominated to the Breeders' Cup, and Team Valor would have to pay $250,000 to supplement him to the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic. But his win should have U.S. horses quaking in their Queen's Plates even if he isn't supplemented to racing's "world championships."

That's because Europe is sending much better than him to Santa Anita next month. Whether or not hands-down European champion Sea the Stars races in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Rip Van Winkle, a Galileo 3-year-old who has won half of his eight starts including two straight British Group 1 races (and who has suffered three of his four losses in races won by Sea the Stars), is likely Breeders' Cup-bound in hopes of escaping Sea the Stars' shadow.

Conditioner Aidan O'Brien has confirmed that European 2-year-old champion of 2008 and four-time Group 1 winner Mastercraftsman -- a recent Group 3 winner in his first try on an all-weather track at Dundalk (in a B.C. Dirt Marathon win-and-you're-in) and also three times a victim of Sea the Stars in his four defeats -- is likewise headed to Santa Anita for the Classic.

Both Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman were clearly superior 3-year-olds to Gitano Hernando in the U.K.

And, apparently the 12-furlong distance of the Breeders' Cup Turf has spooked the connections of Eclipse turf champion-contender Gio Ponti into a run at the Classic instead. Gio Ponti was upset by Interpatation in the mile-and-a-half Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont his last out, and his camp has decided not to attempt 12 furlongs again at Santa Anita.

Certainly America's best main-track horses will be there for the Classic, including those from the eastern half of the country such as Grade 1 winner Macho Again and three-times G1-winning 3-year-old Summer Bird. But neither has any promising synthetic track form to hang his bridle on. And we've just seen the Best of the West (minus Rail Trip) beaten over the Pro-Ride course by what previously had been an unequivocally second-tier Euro.

So America's hopefuls are stuck with a Breeders' Cup Classic in which the upper crust of likely contenders -- heaven help them if Sea the Stars shows, plus Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman, Gio Ponti, even the aforementioned Einstein -- are all Grade- or Group 1 winners on grass. Which might mean unbeaten Zenyatta, though a synthetic-track monster in her own right, is better off stuck running against mares again in the Please-Change-the-Name-Back-to-Distaff.

And certainly it could be that all the main-track Yanks will be stuck looking forward to 2010 when the Classic gets back onto real, live dirt at Churchill Downs.

Best horse you won't see at the Breeders' Cup?

Sea the Stars was the smashing victor of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Sunday at Longchamp.

But his connections, including owner Christopher Tsui and trainer John Oxx, are likely less than convinced that he should race in the Breeders' Cup Classic next month at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meeting in California. Or, perhaps, ever again.

And can you blame them?

The 3-year-old colt by Cape Cross and whose dam, Urban Sea (Miswaki-Allegretta, by Lombard) also won the Arc, has done everything asked of him.

His only loss was as a first-timer -- fourth in an 18-horse field at The Curragh -- in a talented group that included winner Driving Snow (stakes winner, G3-placed), Black Bear Island (G2 winner, full brother to High Chaparral) and Freemantle (G2-placed), all finishing less than a length ahead of him.

The spectacular half-brother to champion Galileo has won eight in a row since, six straight Group 1 races, including the English Derby-Guineas double (a first since Nashwan in 1989) and beating the best older horses Europe has to offer.

"Does he need to achieve anything more? I don't know. It's questionable," said his jockey, Mick Kinane, upon winning the Arc.

No, it isn't questionable. There's nothing more to ask of this horse. At least, certainly not at age 3. And certainly not shipping to California to try and win a Breeders' Cup race on a synthetic surface.

"He's a phenomenal horse," said Kinane. "You'd hate to do anything wrong by him."

I'm not saying that running at Santa Anita would be "wrong." Only needless, particularly in the Classic. I don't see how it raises his stud value one iota to be the best horse in the world on both turf and synthetic. ... Dirt might be a different story, but the Breeders' Cup has seen fit not to give us dirt, two years in a row now.

Europeans, at least, agree.

"They can go to America if they like, but I just hope he never runs again," said four-time Arc-winning rider Pat Eddery. "He's got nothing left to prove."

"I don't know why they would want to go to America," said ex-jockey Geoff Lewis, who won the 1971 Arc aboard Mill Reef. "... He's done enough already."

I disagree with Eddery in that I would like to see this horse run at age 4. From a breeding perspective, I would prefer knowing that a horse had more than nine lifetime races in him before standing him at stud. I realize that doesn't seem to bother a lot of other people, including most of the horse people with considerably more money than I.

So if Sea the Stars doesn't run at Santa Anita -- and I think that he won't -- will he be the best horse not competing in the Breeders' Cup this year? Or does that title go to Rachel Alexandra, who is almost certain to be the Eclipse Horse of the Year without setting foot on a track during Breeders' Cup weekend?

I'm asking that question in the polling space at left, and also giving you a choice of "Some Other Horse." If you vote and choose neither Sea the Stars nor Rachel, do me the favor of posting the non-BC-bound horse you believe is best instead in the comments section for this post.

So I can scoff at you.

No, seriously. If you think it's some other horse, I'd like to know which horse.

And what in the world you might be thinking. Or have been drinking.