Borel, at least for now, is best for the Bird

Now maybe this case is settled. For two more races, anyway.

Calvin Borel -- once again, for the third time -- is the jockey of Mine That Bird.

Borel's first ride with the 3-year-old reigning Canadian juvenile champion was of course the duo's stunning, rail-skimming, upset win in a sloppy Kentucky Derby on May 2. Obviously it's the biggest win of the gelding's life.

When Borel took off the horse to ride super-filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, Mine That Bird didn't get a good trip, nor the world's greatest ride, from Mike Smith. The Bird finished a gaining and frustrating second to Borel and the history-making filly.

Smith took off the horse to ride on the west coast on Belmont Stakes day, and Borel was back in the irons at Belmont. Inexperienced over "Big Sandy," Borel has been criticized for moving with Mine That Bird too soon. The horse flattened out in deep stretch and finished a tired third.

And, off goes Calvin, this time by choice of the horse's connections, trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and owners Mark Allen's Double Eagle Ranch and Buena Suerte Equine.

Their choice of replacement? Mike Smith, who in the West Virginia Derby gave the horse a ride very similar to Borel's mistake in the Belmont; moving too soon. Even Smith thought so, calling it "total rider error."

Smith was booked to ride Mine That Bird in the Travers, but the horse was scratched after undergoing minor surgery for an entrapped epiglottis. So now, contractually, the Kentucky Derby winner was again without a rider. And his connections reach back in the hat, stir the available jockeys around a bit, and pull out ... the same guy who won with him in the Derby and lost aboard him in the Belmont.

Calvin Borel worked the gelding Monday at Saratoga. He'll ride Mine That Bird in the Goodwood S.-G1 on Oct. 10 at Santa Anita, and -- unless some other big change occurs -- in the Breeders' Cup Classic at the same track on Nov. 7.

It's the best choice for a horse that must be starting to feel like a displaced foster child.

What we do know is the following:

1. Mine That Bird ran the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby.

2. He's pretty much run his guts out every time since, with trip and tactics -- not lack of talent -- being primarily what's gotten him beat.

3. Borel was responsible for one of those rides, but it was at a mile and a half and over a track with which Borel (through no fault of his own) was completely inexperienced; a race, the Belmont Stakes, that has reputation for undoing very good horses and riders.

I really believe that, paired-up again and given 9 or 10 furlongs, Calvin Borel will push the button at the right time and offer Mine That Bird his best shot to win in the Goodwood and the Breeders' Cup Classic.

That doesn't mean he will win. But if he loses these two, I'd like to think it won't be due to the ride he was given.

Julien Leparoux ... no, Mike Smith! ... to be aboard Mine That Bird in West Virginia Derby and Travers

It seems that nothing's ever simple or straightforward when dealing with Mine That Bird and his connections.

I check my e-mail pretty religiously, at least on weekends and when there are horses to discuss. I saw a tip from a message board friend that the Blood-Horse was reporting that jockey Julien Leparoux had committed to ride the Kentucky Derby winner in the upcoming West Virginia Derby-G2, Aug. 1 at Mountaineer Park.

I clicked the link to read the story, and the page at bloodhorse.com was empty.

I clicked the Blood-Horse logo to head back to the homepage and saw no page-topping story link to coverage of who is riding Mine That Bird now that owner Mark Allen and trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. have de-seated the man who won them the Kentucky Derby and beat them in the Preakness, Calvin Borel. But a quick search of the page found a smaller-type link for the story "Smith to Ride Mine That Bird in Two Stakes."

So the news is: Mike Smith, who rode Mine That Bird to a closing second behind Borel and Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness Stakes and then gave up the mount to ride for regular clients Jerry and Ann Moss on the west coast and skip the Belmont Stakes, is back in the irons for the West Virginia Derby and the Travers S.-G1, at Saratoga. ... But apparently that news came after an only-temporarily-correct story had broken that Leparoux would ride the 'Bird in West Virginia.

Or something.

Turns out the report about Leparoux was right until his agent "realized he had a prior commitment." ... The sort of commitment that apparently keeps him from riding a short-priced favorite in a $750,000 race.

This can't be the resolution that Allen and Woolley were hoping to achieve. Unseating Borel might have been the right move for them, because if Rachel Alexandra ends up in the Travers, too (or in the Jim Dandy-G2 on West Va. Derby Day) they were going to lose him, anyway.

But to go back to a jock who asked-off their horse prior to a Grade 1 ... and a jockey who will have to travel from California to ride their horse in these two eastern races ... and thus probably won't be working him in the interim ... and who didn't even commit beyond the end of August ... that can't be what Mine That Bird's principals were looking for.

I know they're New Mexico connections who are likely to blow away like tumbleweeds from the national racing landscape when this horse is gone. But he isn't looking like he'll be gone anytime soon.

Not only was Mine That Bird a convincing Derby winner in the slop, but he came back and scored a gutsy runner-up finish in the Preakness and a credible third in the Belmont Stakes without getting a good trip in either race. He's won over synthetic surfaces at Woodbine in earning a Canadian 2-year-old championship, and shouldn't chicken out of the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita like the connections of some horses. (You heard me, Jess Jackson and Rachel.)

And he's a 3-year-old gelding. He might race in good company until he's 6, or 7, or 8.

Not to mention, though they're being passed off as hayseeds who crashed the party -- c'mon, NTRA, you're telling me that in two months nobody can get around to writing a frickin' bio for these two guys for your Web site? -- Mark Allen reportedly has the better part of $30 million to play with from the sale of his family's oil field services company. If he hires a good bloodstock agent, he'll keep himself in competitive horses for as long as he cares to stay there.

Will nobody commit to this horse through the Breeders' Cup? ... Nobody?

To me it seems we have a Catch-22: Mine That Bird appears to be a very good horse with obscure connections, and those connections realize they have a horse worthy of one of the best jockeys in the country and aren't willing to settle for less.

It's possible that Mike Smith won't be faced with having to take off Mine That Bird before the Breeders' Cup on the first weekend November, but then again, he might. It's reasonable to believe the Travers on Aug. 29 won't be Mine That Bird's last race before a Nov. 7 trip to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup Classic. That's a lot of days between.

Could be he fits in the Super Derby-G2 on Sept. 19 at Louisiana Downs. Or is sent out against older horses for the first time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 on Oct. 3 at Belmont. Or wants to clobber other 3-year-olds in the Indiana Derby-G2 at Hoosier Park on Oct. 3.

Any of those, and maybe others not on the cusp of my brain, set up as a potential last race for Mine That Bird before the Breeders' Cup in November. And nobody is committed to ride him in September or October. Or November.

Allen and Woolley probably should've swallowed their pride and stepped down just one peg on the jockey ladder to find someone with ability -- a younger guy, an overlooked guy, or not a guy at all -- who would be thrilled to have a horse the caliber of Mine That Bird, and who would have to be dragged off him with a cowboy's lasso (which Woolley could probably accomplish) rather than be asking off him the next time they have a good horse running anywhere else.

And that's actually a decent list of people.

For me, it starts with Chantal Sutherland, who piloted Mine That Bird to his Canadian championship. She rode him to a dull finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but who knows how "off" the horse was after a long ship from Woodbine to Santa Anita last fall? Allen's Double Eagle Ranch and partner Buena Suerte Equine had only owned him a couple of weeks at the time. Sutherland is presently 34th in earnings among all North American riders according to Equibase.com, winning at a fair 14 percent clip and hitting the board with 43 percent of her mounts. And she might be a good public relations move -- hiring the horse's capable former jockey, a spokesmodel-pretty and well-spoken woman, to boot, to try and guide him to a Breeders' Cup win that eluded them both last year.

Of course, maybe one ride last fall for these connections was enough for Chantal; only she could say.

There are plenty of other names worth tossing into the discussion, though I'll admit to not knowing all the commitments for them that might conflict.

Rajiv Maragh is No. 10 on the 2009 jockey earnings list and second in wins at the present Belmont meet. Mike Luzzi and one of my favorites, Richard Migliore, are capable old hands at Saratgoa who could stand to win a $750K race at Mountaineer next month, and "Migs" knows his way around Santa Anita plenty well, too.

Churchill's colony, if they're looking for someone to work the horse regularly and ship with him to races, has some respectable possiblities. Young Miguel Mena, 22, is third in wins during the Churchill meet -- ahead of names like Robby Albarado, Shaun Bridgmohan, Corey Lanerie, and Jamie Theriot -- and could use a "big horse" to give his career an extra boost. Not Mena? Try one of those other names I just listed; Bridgmohan in particular. He's 17th in earnings this year among all North American jockeys.

Willing to go with a California-based jock who might be very interested in a mount for the Breeders' Cup out there? Joel Rosario is another who apparently doesn't merit mention among the bios at NTRA, but all he's doing is leading the Hollywood Park meet in wins with 62 from 292 mounts, is second in earnings to Rafael Bejarano, and his jockey agent is track announcer Vic Stauffer, so your gelding is not going to get overlooked when hanging around at the back of the pack before bringing his late run.

I'm not saying Mike Smith is a bad jockey for Mine That Bird. What I'm saying is, if Jerry and Ann Moss or their trainer, John Shirreffs, come up with a horse for the Classic, you're losing him. And with no commitment for September or October, you're possibly losing him even earlier than that.

I'm starting to feel for these guys a little bit, and particularly for their horse. Mine That Bird is a Kentucky Derby winner who deserves a regular rider.

But it looks like the riders the connections want won't make the horse their No. 1 mount, and the good jockeys who'd be glad to make Mine That Bird their No. 1 horse aren't the riders Allen and Woolley want.

Or maybe they're selling the horse before the Breeders' Cup anyway and only need their own jockey for two more races.

Fear the Queen? Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird and the ongoing jockey-rider chess match

What if it's really about Rachel?

As reported, jockey Calvin Borel on Wednesday was taken off Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird by owner Mark Allen and trainer Bennie Woolley Jr.

Allen said it was because Borel was hedging on whether to ride Mine That Bird in the $750,000 West Virginia Derby-G2 on Aug. 1, or to ride the Grade 3-placed Medaglia D'Oro colt Warrior's Reward in the $500,000 Jim Dandy S.-G2 at Saratoga instead.

Allen said he didn't want Borel leaving him hanging, waiting on the jockey's decision "until the last minute" again as in the days leading up to the Preakness Stakes.

But Borel didn't leave Allen, Woolley and Mine That Bird "hanging" prior to the Pimlico classic; they had over a week to find a rider and there's only two weeks between Derby and Preakness anyway. And, jockey/trainer allegiances aside -- as Borel has a long relationship with Warrior's Reward conditioner Ian Wilkes, who was an assistant to Carl Nafzger, whom Borel calls "Mr. Carl" -- it would make sense to me for Borel to stick with the heavy favorite in a $750,000 race over a horse that, even with luck, will be merely a middling contender in a $500,000 affair.

Then Anne Mayea, a contributor to a Yahoo horse racing discussion group of which I'm a member, offered some insights that hit home.

What if it isn't about Warrior's Reward or even Mine That Bird at all?

What if it's all about Rachel Alexandra?

Precedent, and Borel's own words, are more than clear. Forced to make a choice between the two horses, Calvin will forever take Rachel Alexandra over Mine That Bird.

That isn't necessarily a conflict leading up to the first weekend of August. Though there's speculation that Rachel Alexandra might be entered against colts again in the Haskell Invitational-G1 at Monmouth Park, that race is on Sunday, Aug. 2. Borel could ride Mine That Bird in the West Virginia Derby on Aug. 1 at Mountaineer and Rachel in the Haskell the following day, no problem.

Only if Rachel were entered in the Jim Dandy instead (and she is training at Saratoga) would race-dates for the two conflict. And it could happen.

Even if not, then the Travers Stakes-G1 at Saratoga looms large.

Woolley has already stated that Mine That Bird's next race after the West Virginia Derby will be the Travers, at 10 furlongs over the Saratoga course on Aug. 29. And Rachel will be there, in training if nothing else.

Rachel will likely race twice between now and Labor Day: Her connections' available choices are many, but most attractive could be: the $1 million Delaware H.-G2 against older fillies and mares on July 19; the Coaching Club American Oaks-G1 against 3-year-old fillies at Belmont on July 25; the Jim Dandy on Aug. 1 or the Haskell on Aug. 2, both against 3-year-old males; the Alabama Stakes-G1 against her own age and gender at Saratoga on Aug. 22; the Travers against 3-year-old males on Aug. 29; and the Personal Ensign S.-G1 going 10 furlongs against older females at Saratoga on Aug. 30.

Rachel's primary owner, Jess Jackson of Stonestreet Stables, has indicated an interest not only in racing his filly against older females, but in racing her vs. colts again. If Rachel doesn't undertake that inter-gender challenge in the Jim Dandy or Haskell, the remaining spot then becomes the Travers -- which would force Borel off Mine That Bird by his own choice anyway.

Of course, nobody knows whose horse will be fit for any given race. But if things in all camps (including that of Warrior's Reward, whom Borel is riding in the Dwyer S.-G2 on Independence Day) work out as planned, Borel might have three horses he was riding as of Wednesday morning, all pointed at the Travers on Aug. 29. And Rachel trumps all.

So while Mark Allen might be using a potential conflict with the Warrior's Reward mount as his reason for taking Calvin Borel off Mine That Bird, he very well might be playing a bigger chess match -- and thinking one or two races and moves ahead as a result.

Allen might really be saying that he'd rather trade-out Borel for another pawn in the black Double Eagle Ranch silks right now, than have to worry whether the present 3-year-old queen of racing is going to sweep his cajun knight out of the saddle again later in the game.

Bird flies coop, leaving Borel behind

Mark Allen, primary owner of Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, has told the Daily Racing Form that he and the horse's trainer, Bennie Woolley Jr., have taken the mount away from jockey Calvin Borel.

The Churchill Downs-based rider effectively won the horse and his connections the Derby by conserving the horse's energy and making the jockey's patented move up the inside fence in the late-going, a style of riding that has earned Borel the nickname "Bo-Rail." But after taking off the horse to ride filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness -- winning that race, relegating Mine That Bird to second, and ending the Birdstone gelding's Triple Crown hopes -- Borel was back on the horse for the Belmont Stakes, and was criticized by a number of observers, including Woolley, for a ride in which the jockey likely moved the horse too soon.

Mine That Bird was beaten in the Belmont by another Birdstone son, Summer Bird.

Allen told DRF that he and Woolley were not yet ready to name a new rider, but Borel wouldn't be the person aboard Mine That Bird when the gelding makes his expected return to the races in the Aug. 1, $750,000 West Virginia Derby-G2 at Mountaineer Park.

To a degree, I suppose, a little turnabout is fair play. Borel had to make a choice between MTB and the filly for the Preakness, and beyond a doubt made the right one at the time. He's paid for it since by regaining -- and now losing -- Mine That Bird, and by learning that Rachel's ownership group, primarily Jess Jackson of Stonestreet Stable, claim they will not run her on racing's biggest weekend, the Breeders' Cup this fall at Santa Anita. Jackson does not want the filly running on a synthetic track, even though she's won a race over such a surface as a 2-year-old.

Now, Allen says, Borel was hedging on whether he would ride Mine That Bird in West Virginia, or take the mount on Warrior's Reward in the Jim Dandy S.-G2 at Saratoga. If Borel was uncertain which horse to take in that case, it was his mistake. Warrior's Reward might be a very good colt, but as of now he's a Grade 3-placed runner with five lifetime starts who is pointed toward a $500,000 race.

While Borel is tabbed to ride Warrior's Reward (who beat Barbaro's brother Nicanor in a maiden race) in the Dwyer Stakes on the Fourth of July, I find it hard to believe Borel would consider keeping that mount over a Derby winner who placed in all three Triple Crown races and is pointed toward a $750,000 race, from which the jockey's winnings would be 50 percent more than if his horse won the Jim Dandy.

"I'm not going to bad-mouth Calvin or Jerry (Hissam, Borel's agent) because they've done me a lot of good. Heck, they won the Derby for me," said Allen. "But I'm not going to let them hang us out the way they did before the Preakness, waiting until the last minute to tell us we needed another rider."

Speaking in terms with which Allen is certainly familiar, I have to call bullshit on his claims of Borel "hanging them out ... until the last minute" with his choice of Rachel Alexandra for the Preakness. Once Jess Jackson owned her and pointed her toward that race, Borel made his definitive choice almost immediately. I blogged that he'd made the right choice on June 8, and that's a week and a day before the big race at Pimlico; hardly short notice.

But, Allen and Woolley have the right to put any jock they want on their horse, and unless the West Virginia Derby draws up way tougher than I'm expecting, Mine That Bird will be the heavy -- if not short-priced -- favorite to win.

So whoever that guy (or gal) to get the mount happens to be, should count himself lucky.

How much is that Birdie in the window?

A blogger I follow, Sid Fernando + Observations, reports that an insider has told him offers are flitting in for Kentucky Derby champion Mine That Bird.

"Sid" reports the asking price could be in the range of $4 million to $5 million.

I don't find that surprising, as the horse has proven himself to be game in follow-up (narrow) losses in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Barring injury, he has a bright future ahead, including rich races this summer against other 3-year-olds, and a potential trip to the Breeders' Cup. And, as a gelding, he could run on for years, although that could be another reason for owners Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine to sell now; he has no stud value.

Clearly Mark Allen isn't afraid to spend money on horses; he dropped something akin to three-quarters of a million on a bunch at sales last year. And with a multimillion-dollar oil field business sale in his recent past (his share a reported $30 million), he isn't hurting for money and doesn't in any way need to sell Mine That Bird.

Personally, I don't see the joy in buying a horse somebody else "made" in hopes that he'll get me in an owner's box at the Breeders' Cup. And if a horse that had done this much for me, I think you'd have to pry his papers from my cold, dead fingers.

But Allen went down that exact road himself -- buying MTB for $400,000 essentially after the horse had already earned his Canadian juvenile championship at Woodbine, and for the express purpose of a quick wheelback into the 2008 BC Juvenile. So he certainly shouldn't be above selling the colt to someone making the same gamble, and for about a tenfold profit.

Borel at Belmont: Blackball by default

Many observers, myself included, were critical of jockey Calvin Borel -- in print or otherwise -- for having no mounts during Belmont Stakes week and trying to win the third leg of the Triple Crown on Mine That Bird with very little experience traversing "Big Sandy."

Today Steve Haskin of The Blood-Horse reports that the decision wasn't Borel's. Haskin says he's been told nobody would give Borel a mount during the week at Belmont save one trainer, and that Borel was advised to take off that horse. (I believe I've heard elsewhere that lone ride was to be on the turf course, anyway.)

Calvin Borel is such a kind man that it isn't surprising, I guess, that he would deflect all criticism of his lack of mounts during Belmont week by good-naturedly saying it didn't really make a difference; that like all races, you just "break ... and turn left." It likely did make a difference -- Big Sandy and the Belmont aboard a keyed-up horse have been the undoing of more famed jockeys than he -- but if he tried and couldn't get mounts, what was he to do? Call the whole Belmont trainer colony everything but sons of God?

I don't really know what to make of a situation in which the hottest jockey in America can't get a ride for a week. On the one hand, you'd think somebody -- some little barn with a handful of horses, typically stuck hiring bug-boys and second-tier NY-circuit veterans -- would hand him the reins for a race or two during the week. Even if Borel wasn't aboard a winner, he'd get the feel for just how expansive that turn for home and how long the final stretch are; how you can't go as early as your instincts make you think.

(Haskin doesn't think Borel moved to soon aboard Mine That Bird; I still do. The outside trip might have cost him even more, and maybe Borel just couldn't hold back an uncharacteristically rank horse, but Mine That bird used too much energy, too soon.)

On the other hand, if you're a New York trainer of any stature, top-rung or bottom, what's really to be gained by naming Borel to a half-dozen mounts during Belmont week? Why break commitments and risk fracturing relationships with local jockeys for a rider, Borel, who almost certainly won't be there to ride your horse back the next time he runs?

It isn't your job to get the guy ready to run the Belmont. It's your job to win today, tomorrow and next week and next month with your owners' horses. Even if Borel wins on your horse, you can only say you've benefited if it seemed there was little chance of that horse winning without Calvin Borel. At Churchill Downs that happens almost every day; at Belmont Park, you probably have just as good a shot with any of a dozen other, more familiar, guys or gals in the irons.

There'd need to be some compelling reason to ride Borel instead of your regular guy, or even in the case of a horse that hasn't established a good working relationship with a jockey yet. You might do it if Borel was there to ride a friend's horse in the Belmont; a fellow trainer with whom you've had an on- and off-track friendship for a decade all around the Northeast. Or if it's realistic that you might have a horse in a nice race at Churchill someday and could want Borel in the irons for that one. Or even if the owner of Borel's horse is someone with whom you'd like to earn points, so that you might train some of his horses in the future.

It's likely none of that's the case with Belmont's trainer colony and Mine That Bird.

This might be a product, then, of a formerly obscure horse with perhaps destined to again be obscure connections in owners Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine, and trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. What's a Belmont-based trainer to think of collaborating with them?

They're the Sunland Park crowd; New Mexico guys. Mark Allen, despite his oil-business money, will likely never have a substantial string at Belmont and consider you as the trainer. And Woolley -- personable though he seems to be in horse circles -- is someone you just met; you owe him no return of a former favor and it's unlikely he'd ever be in a position to repay your favor of putting Borel aboard a long-shot in the fifth on Belmont Friday. Legging-up Borel would be a courtesy from which you'd not be expecting ever to benefit directly; nothing but "a kindness," as we say in the South.

I mean, follow the links ... there's probably an explanation behind why the NTRA has mugshots but still no bios on these men, nearly six weeks after their horse won the biggest race in America, the Kentucky Derby. Aside from Mine That Bird, nobody in racing's upper echelon is really expecting to hear from these guys again.

So in a game that's all about gaining and exploiting advantages -- not just from gate to wire, but from the sales, to morning workouts, to the entry box, to the saddling enclosure, to post-parade, to gate, to wire -- there was almost nothing to be gained for any Belmont trainer to put Calvin Borel on horses during Belmont week.

Call it a "blackball by default," perhaps.

There might have been some New York allegiances involved -- trainers who'd rather see a jockey or conditioner from the Belmont colony win the Belmont Stakes, rather than these upstarts in cowboy boots and their sudden-celebrity jockey. Or even some jealousy among NY-circuit jockeys and trainers watching this Louisiana middle-school dropout from Churchill breeze into the Big Apple and appear on late-night TV as a guest of David Letterman.

But there didn't need to be any animosity at all for the same net result to occur: No rides for Borel to prep his skills for the Belmont.

It's tough for the guy, for his horse, and for the connections. And it makes you admire Calvin Borel all the more that he had the good spirits and grace to smile through defeat and never utter a harsh word -- knowing he and the horse had tried their best when nobody would do him a favor all week in New York.

No "kindness" for the kindest jockey in America. That is a little bit sad, isn't it?

Five reasons why Mine That Bird will win the Preakness

What, you thought I gave the Kentucky Derby winner no chance in Saturday's Preakness Stakes?

1. Bye-bye, Borel: Believe it or not, I don't think Mine That Bird needs Calvin Borel. Though the jockey's ride in the Derby was masterful, the gelding has shown that he can win without him. Mine That Bird has five wins from nine starts, and those victories have come with three different jockeys; Chantal Sutherland is the leader with three. This loss of jockey really could be much ado about nothing when it comes to race-riding at Pimlico. In fact, if what trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. and primary owner Mark Allen want from the horse is to be taken back early (done in part by necessity and in part by design in the Derby, to great success), replacement jock Mike Smith is among the best at winning with a deep closer. (Remember Giacomo?) ... Besides, Borel, a 14-percent winner in 2009, is at his best at Churchill. The guy getting the pickup mount is a hall-of-famer winning at 18 percent. How bad a trade is that, really?

2. Rachel Won't Win: I'm not saying that's a surety, I'm just saying that Rachel Alexandra as favorite -- probably heavy favorite -- isn't as sure a thing as the final odds (whatever they might be) are likely to suggest. And not just because she's a filly (though it plays a role; first race against boys, her toughest field ever, etc.). Look what's being asked of her. She's won five straight, and streaks do typically end. She switches barns, from Hal Wiggins, who obviously knew her well, to Steve Asmussen, who (despite, no doubt, talks with Wiggins), hardly knows her at all. Shipped to Pimlico, new stall, new grooms, new regimen. ... Tall order.

3. The Race Sets Up For Him: Another point against Rachel, for starters. She draws the 13-hole, which superstitiously is a negative, and could be practically, as well. A filly who runs up front -- no further than a head off the lead in her five straight wins -- Rachel might have to spend considerable energy early to draw clear and be able to drop over toward the rail to avoid being hung out very wide on the far turn; especially if one of the boys on the inside decides to make it extra-tough on the filly. Meanwhile, 'Bird sits in the 2-hole with fairly fleet Big Drama to his inside, permitting Smith to take back only a little and get right on the rail to save ground. He can sit second or he can sit 12th, it's up to him and his horse. (See free Daily Racing Form Preakness PPs here.)

4. Remember His 'Dirty Little Secret?' Well, Forget It: Yesterday I noted Mine That Bird's two efforts over a fast, conventional dirt track have not been nearly good enough to win a Grade 1 race. (They weren't good enough to twin two ungraded stakes races.) A fast strip at Pimlico could be a problem. It also could be a moot point. The Weather Channel's hour-by-hour forecast predicts a 30 percent chance of rain or thunderstorms almost straight through in the 24-plus hours from 6 p.m. Preakness Eve, to the 6:15 Saturday evening post time. And the chance of rain escalates in the forecast to 50 percent shortly after the race, and 60 percent throughout Saturday night. If the track takes on moisture at any time after the Black Eyed Susan card today, and if the heavier or at least more-probable rain comes in just a little earlier than the advance forecast predicts, the field could find itself playing in the Derby champion's birdbath, much to his contentment.

5. David vs. Goliath (or, 'The Birdstone Factor'): In this case, Goliath is a girl, and a talented field she leads, and fate, and the odds, which will still be somewhat stacked against this little gelding, although hardly 50-1 as they were on Derby Day. He's a little guy -- by some reports barely 15 hands -- facing a monumental task. But so was his sire, Birdstone, on the day he stole the Belmont Stakes and a Triple Crown from Smarty Jones at 36-1 odds. Don't doubt for a minute that heart and a spirit can flow from sire and dam to son and daughter, just as surely as more tangible attributes such as color, stature, speed and stamina. Then there are the Preakness myths, of almost biblical proportions, primed for the little hero to overcome. ... "Pimlico is speed-favoring, and the traffic can make it even harder on a closer." He can get through; he's a small horse. ... "But the turns at Pimlico are so tight!" Did you forget he's a small horse? ... "But it is just too big a task." The bigger they come, the harder they fall; eh, Goliath? ... Maybe this 'Bird is just the "David" to do it.