Viva Ace trumps field at Busan

Maiden-breaker No. 37 for my sales-tip Class of 2010 also earns the distinction of being the first winner from a contingent of a dozen that were sent to Korea.

Viva Ace (Macho Uno-Dancing Lake, by Meadowlake) bested a field of nine rivals at BusanKyeongnam race course on Sunday, winning his first lifetime race in his second career start. He had placed second in his debut.

The gelding was ridden to victory by You Hyun Myung, and trained by Kang Hyoung Gon for owner Hong Kyung Pyo. He covered 1,200 meters in 1:13.9, and has earned $23,937 from his two starts. (Provided this currency converter is correct.)

The race is not officially a "maiden's only" race, as those don't exist in Korea, where horses can continue to race among "Class 4" competition (the lowest available), even after they've won, until they earn enough money to advance to Class 3. But there were no winners in against Viva Ace on this day, and six of his nine opponents in the race for imported horses were also 2-year-olds. (Second went to an Australian-bred 4-year-old named Seonggong Bulpae, and third to a U.S.-bred Trippi colt named Suhosin).

Tasked by a client to find the best values among the bargain-priced offerings at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-old in Training this May, I shortlisted Viva Ace as a "Priority 2" animal. He sold for $20,000 as Hip 90, but I had decided to pass on him when we reached his number in the sale order due to lengthy pasterns that I thought might make him tougher to keep sound. (Photo above from the Korean Stud Book Web site.) I felt there were still a number of horses on our list later in the sale, at least one of which we would end up getting, and about which I wouldn't have that particular concern.

Consigned by Harris Training Center, the youngster posted a 10.3 breeze -- quick for this sale -- and I still did believe that he has some up-side, including blacktype second and third dams.

He's obviously looked pretty good in his first two starts.

With all available statistics tabulated through Tuesday's results (minus a Puerto Rican stakes race I'll report soon), the 187-member sales class has sent 105 horses to post (56.2 percent), with 37 winners (19.8 percent of all selections, 35.2 percent of those to race).

The class has made 326 starts, winning 49 (15 percent), placing in 65 (35 percent in the exacta) and finishing third in another 30 (44.2 percent in the money). Class earnings now total $2,285,851, which is $7,012 per start and $21,770 average per runner.

Follow the class in its entirety in the list at this former post.

Bittersweet Breeders' Cup; emphasis on 'bitter'

It's taken me a couple of days to comment on the Breeders' Cup -- that is, on the two sales-tips of mine who made that championship weekend of racing -- because from the relative high of Friday, my heart was broken on Saturday with the death of a horse I'd quickly grown to admire.

In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 on Friday, sales-tip Delightful Mary held off a late challenge or two and salvaged third, but couldn't get to the shoo-in champion 2-year-old filly, unbeaten Awesome Feather, and runner-up R Heat Lightning.

On Saturday, I was hopeful that long-shot Rough Sailing might likewise figure in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But as he entered the first turn a little bit wide, the Mizzen Mast colt's feet just shot out from under him (on a grass course that had been described as slick by some) and he went crashing to the ground with jockey Rosie Napravnik.

Thankfully, Rosie escaped without any serious injuries. Rough Sailing wasn't so lucky. He got to his feet and ran down the backstretch before being caught, but after being vanned away from the course, the colt was found to have suffered a broken shoulder and was euthanized.

I was heartbroken, and I know that my disappointment is a shadow of what his connections, Jack H. Smith III thoroughbreds and trainer Mike Stidham, must have felt.

Working for the first time as a paid bloodstock advisor, I shortlisted Rough Sailing as a "Priority 1" horse for a client when he sold for $40,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training this May. Catalogued as Hip 250, I liked the colt on paper -- his dam is a half-sister to WILD ZONE, STRIKE ZONE and Snow Eagle -- and was impressed by his 23.2/35.2 breeze over a slow dirt track that proved not to be his preferred surface. Though he was just a $12,000 yearling, I didn't figure we could afford him based on my inspection, and we couldn't, though his price was still almost 20 percent below the sale average.

I liked that the colt was described to me as "very aggressive," I took note that his front end was very impressive (though his hind a little less so), and it was impossible to miss his large hoof. I underlined the words "big feet" on his catalog page, realizing that a large hoof is considered by some to be one sign of a turf horse. Since the colt hailed from the Cozzene/Caro sireline, which most frequently produces grass horses, and was out of a Woodman mare, his turf aptitude was no surprise to me, and Rough Sailing came through with a first-out maiden-breaking win around two turns on turf at Arlington that left me quite hopeful.

His next race was the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 at the same racetrack, but on the Polytrack main course. I can't fault the connections for trying the race; it is a graded-stakes at the track where their colt was already in training, he was obviously sharp, and sometimes turf form translates well to synthetic. And Rough Sailing made a good bid, finishing second to Major Gain.

But after jockey Michael Baze said the colt had a better finishing kick on the grass, it surprised me that the connections elected to run him on Polytrack again in Keeneland's Dixiana Breeders' Futurity-G1. In a troubled trip, Rough Sailing came home a steady, but unsuccessful sixth.

I was excited to see him headed back to the grass. And I'm nothing short of crushed that he's gone after just four races, with one win, one Grade 3 placing, and $37,534 in earnings.

Delightful Mary, conversely, seems to still have a bright future ahead. The $500,000 sales-topper from Ocala's April sale, the Limehouse filly out of the French Deputy mare Deputy's Delight won her first two starts on synthetic at Woodbine -- one sprinting, one routing -- then was second to Wyomia in the Mazarine S.-G3. With her show finish in the Juvenile Fillies, she has earned back $310,377 of that purcahse price.

I wish good luck to her owner, John C. Oxley, and trainer, Mark Casse, as she moves forward from here.

Track the entire sales-tip class -- 187 horses -- at this former post.

Life At Ten fiasco: Blame for all, save the rider

Bettors and horse-welfare advocates alike are in a furor, and have a right to be, over the fact that Life At Ten broke from the gate -- if you can call it that -- in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, despite showing obvious signs to both her trainer and rider that she just wasn't right.

It was downright wrong that the unwell horse was loaded into the gate and asked to, in any way, "run" with the field. It's also wrong that the stewards didn't immediately refund all wagers placed on Life At Ten -- the second choice in the wagering at 7/2 -- when it was clear from the moment the gate opened (actually, well before it closed behind her) that the horse never stood a chance and almost certainly shouldn't run.

So call down wrath from the sky upon the stewards. Vent your fury on the track veterinarians, who observed Life At Ten after both trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez suggested she wasn't well, but authorized her to run anyway. Be angry that Pletcher didn't make the disappointing decision to scratch his own horse when she didn't seem right, though it could be argued he chose to trust the judgment of the vets.

But whether you're livid that the horse's safety was risked, furious that you lost money wrongfully on betting a horse that never even tried to race, or both, I say spare John Velazquez. He did all he could do in untenable circumstances.

According to Blood-Horse reports, Pletcher said Life At Ten seemed well when she walked over to the paddock. But he noticed problems during the saddling, describing the mare as acting as though she'd been sedated. Pletcher said he told Velazquez to be sure he warmed-up the mare well. But when she didn't respond to the rider's efforts, Pletcher said Velazquez asked that vets check Life At Ten before loading the horse into the gate for the start.

Dr. Larry Bramlage, on-call veterinarian for the American Association of Equine practitioners, said in a statement that a team of three vets at the starting gate "did not observe any physical problems." In fact, Bramlage said the vets didn't find anything out of the ordinary upon examining Life At Ten after the race, either.

(Note: The Daily Racing Form reports that Velazquez said nothing to the vets pre-race, according to a quote by Bramlage. Somebody should get to the bottom of that. Complaining to the vets; did Johnny V, or didn't he?)

At any rate, something wasn't right. John Velazquez knew it; even said so before a television audience. And when the veterinarians didn't scratch the horse (and Pletcher didn't either), in my mind Velazquez was left to make one of three terrible choices.

1. Get off the horse. Refuse to ride her. Risk them calling in a replacement jockey who will ride Life At Ten as though nothing is amiss, until such time as she goes completely wrong, perhaps fatally.

2. Ride the mare himself as though nothing is amiss, even though he knows that there is. Be the jockey that maybe kills her. And maybe gets himself killed in the process.

3. Stay on the horse that has become one of his most prized regular mounts, so that nobody else has control of his stricken charge's fate. When the gate opens, keep Life At Ten under wraps for her own good.

In an impossible situation, where he (and possibly the horse) will be damned regardless of his choice, John Velazquez did the closest thing there was to "the right thing."

Yes, it screwed bettors. But were they (or "you" where applicable) any more screwed by Velazquez's not persevering at all with Life At Ten than if she had broken down on the clubhouse turn? Or had a heart attack on the backstretch?

It's the vets' error for not listening to a trainer and a rider who both (at least according to some reports) were openly concerned that the horse they know, train and ride wasn't herself today. Pletcher could be blamed for sending her out to the post-parade at all considering how she was behaving in the paddock. And it's the house's inexcusable decision to keep your money when the horse you bet was as close a thing as you'll find in this game to a non-starter without actually "not starting."

The Life At Ten incident of BC2010 was embarrassing. Terrible.

But John Velazquez quite possibly saved us from far worse.

My only tip for the Breeders' Cup, but it's a doozy

With the Breeders' Cup finally upon us, I'm going to leave the heavy-duty handicapping other pros and bloggers.

I'm gonna make just one highly controversial recommendation.

Toss Quality Road in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

I don't write that lightly, and certainly not with any joy. Quality Road's owner and breeder, Edward P. Evans, is one of the true gentlemen of the sport, and a Virginia icon, the state where some of the fondest of my early horse-racing connections (and my only two foals) happen to be. I briefly owned a stallion he bred, the late Silver Music (winner of the G2 Swaps Stakes). Folks associated with his operation have been kind enough to not only offer uncompensated advice on getting into (and getting through) this business, but to take in another older stallion I was placing, giving him a great home and third career as a teaser.

And I'm not rooting against Quality Road on Saturday. I don't do that, even when I have money on a race. I cheer for the horse(s) on my ticket, but never wish ill -- not a bad trip, not even a dull effort -- on the others in the race. They're magnificent animals who lay their lives on the line every time they race and while it's fun to bet 'em (and beat 'em), and intriguing to discuss their place in history (such as the frequent furor around Zenyatta), they all deserve our respect.

If I lose -- and oh, do I lose -- my first thought will usually be "how did I miss that?" Or at the very least: "Today was their day. Not mine."

(Sidebar: If you happen to have a calendar with the date marked on it for when my next "My Day" happens to be, please drop me a line. I've been waiting on that like a kid pining for Christmas.)

No, in this case, I think one of the more wildly talented horses we've seen in the past few years, is just not well-spotted to win this race. And I'm not sure there's anything his connections could do about it.

Some took a dimmer view of Quality Road's chances after he was assigned the 1-hole in the post-position draw. The rail at Churchill can be a tough place to start a race; ask Lookin At Lucky, who was beaten around and against the fence enough on the first trip by the stands in this year's Kentucky Derby to rob him of all chance.

But with fewer horses in the gate (12 vs. 20), the gate's positioning won't be quite so far to the inside and the rail won't "come up" on Quality Road as it does on a Derby starter as they break for a 10-furlong race from Churchill's chute. There also won't be quite the crush of horses trying to get down to the rail. And after all, if there's a horse in this Breeders' Cup Classic who is the speed of the speed if he wants to be, it's Quality Road. So I think he can actually play the 1-hole to his advantage, take the early lead, save ground all the way around while in front (others saving ground will have to shuffle back to do so) and hopefully control the pace to have gas left in the tank for the stretch.

But therein lies the trouble, in my opinion, for Quality Road. I'm not sure whether he's a gas-guzzler, like most muscle cars, or the tank just isn't quite big enough. But when it comes to getting 10 furlongs, I don't think he's the right horse.

From the perspective of just this race, Quality Road isn't likely to get an uncontested lead with a soft pace. The other two logical speed horses are drawn just to his outside -- No. 3 Haynesfield (12/1) and No. 4 First Dude (15/1) -- and have little to lose by just "going for it" from the gate. The 7, Musket Man, another horse I love but think doesn't fit at this distance, isn't the type to let the leaders back up into him too much without pushing them to go on with it. So the 5/1 Quality Road is likely to be hounded by 12/1, 15/1 and 20/1 long-shots who might be even higher in the odds by post-time.

That sets up the race for a stalker or a deep-closer, and apart from Quality Road, that's where the biggest talents of this Breeders' Cup field lie in wait. If she's on her game, expect the undefeated queen, Zenyatta (8/5), to be coming hard in the final two furlongs. I think Lookin At Lucky (6/1) might be the sharpest horse in the field right now and unlike his battering rail-trip in the Derby, can more casually find a spot from which to stalk or close from his position on the far outside. Churchill-loving Blame (9/2) and up-and-comer (but not quite gettin' there-er, sometimes by a whisker) Fly Down (15/1) can settle into good positions from their posts, 5 and 6. If he takes to the track when it's (likely) fast -- something I consider iffy -- turf standout Paddy O'Prado (15/1) could also be closing late as he did to pick up third in a sloppy Derby back in May.

So I'm confident that somebody's gonna pass Quality Road before the wire, as did Blame when they met in the nine-furlong Whitney a couple of months back. (And Blame did it even though Quality Road benefited from fractions of 24.41 and 48.06 that were far from suicidal.) In fact, I wouldn't be flabbergasted if Quality Road were passed in the stretch on Saturday by two horses. Or three. Or more.

Sealing the deal in my opinion is the fact that the undeniably gifted, brilliant, very fast racehorse that is Quality Road, is only a 50/50 proposition when asked to race beyond a mile. He has six lifetime starts at nine or 10 furlongs. He has won three of them, all at the shorter of the two distances, two in record time at Gulfstream (the 2010 Donn H.-G1 and 2009 Florida Derby-G1). But he's 0-for-2 at 10 panels.

Now look inside that raw, coin-toss-equivalent percentage and see the horses he defeated, and which horses managed to beat him in the losses.

The 9f wins, in reverse chronological order:

-- Sept. 4 this year, the Woodward S.-G1, over Mythical Power, Tranquil Manner, Convocation, Indian Dance, Arcodoro and a by-now-flightless Mine That Bird. Apart from Mine That Bird's walking on water in the 2009 Derby, there isn't even a Grade 2 win in that field. Mythical Power has won two G3s; Indian Dance an overnight stake at Laurel. The other three have never won a stakes race of any kind, anywhere. The Woodward, in fact, is Tranquil Manner's only lifetime placing in a stakes race.

-- This year's Donn Handicap in February, the second time Quality Road has set the Gulfstream Park track record for a mile and an eighth, this time at 1:47.49. (He also holds the Saratoga record for 6.5f, a blistering 1:13.45.) Second place was Dry Martini, a rugged war-horse, four-time G2 or G3 winner (including at 10f) and millionaire who has been among the closest to chase home Quality Road more than once. Third was Delightful Kiss, G2 winner of the Ohio Derby. A respectable trifecta. The rest of the field: Mambo Meister; Helsinki; Past the Point; Kiss the Kid; Duke of Mischief; Dubai Gold.

-- The 2009 Florida Derby, a 1:47.72 track record win over Dunkirk (two G1 placings, no stakes wins before he became another Unbridled-line to break and be retired after five races), Theregoesjojo (only horse ever to beat Quality Road at less than 9f, in a 7f Gulfstream allowance, but whose only stakes performance besides two losses to QR is a third at Prairie Meadows), Stately Character (listed winner at Calder, but with three wins from 27 starts), Sincero (listed win at Calder, 5-for-24 lifetime), Casey's On Call (lone stakes win, the Western Canada Handicap at Northlands Park), and Toby the Coal Man (2-for-19 lifetime, no blacktype).

The losses, in reverse chronological order:

-- Quality Road lost the mile and an eighth Whitney to Blame, with Musket Man in third (again, in defiance of his own distance limitations, but still not good enough to win). Haynesfield, who was more than a handful during the gate-loading, was fourth. The only other two horses in the sparse field were a hopeless (yet still just 12/1) Mine That Bird and terribly overmatched Jardim (30/1).

-- Last fall as a 3-year-old, Quality Road was second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 at a mile and a quarter to eventual 3-year-old champion Summer Bird. Hardly an embarrassing "beat." But the horses who finished behind? By finish order: 3. Tizway (now a G2 winner, then a non-winner of any stake); 4. Macho Again (gutted by his narrow loss to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward, later skipped the Breeders' Cup, on the downward spiral toward retirement); 5. Dry Martini; 6. Sette E Mezzo (only career stakes-placing, third in a G2); 7. Asiatic Boy (in the last race of what had been a competitive, albeit not-often-winning, graded-stakes career).

-- In August 2009 at Saratoga, Summer Bird handed Quality Road the first of his two "beats" in head-to-head match-ups, winning the Travers in 2:02.83 for 10 furlongs. Second that day was Hold Me Back at 10/1. Quality Road settled for third as the beaten favorite. The also-rans: Charitable Man; Warrior's Reward; Kensei; Our Edge.

I'm not wishing to disparage the horses who finished behind Quality Road in these races, or to offend their connections. Almost to a horse, they're stakes-performers (at some level, if not graded) and six- or (rarely) even seven-figure earners. They're far better than the average racehorse in this age.

But if you look at all those names and let the caliber of their stakes careers tumble around in your mind just a bit, it isn't a stretch to say that anytime there was a horse in a 9f/10f race who seemed to be anywhere in Quality Road's ballpark on talent and form, that horse managed to beat him. Nor is it off-base to add that of the names of those who finished behind him, you wouldn't put many, if any, on the marquee.

Frankly, Quality Road arguably hasn't faced as many top-shelf-talented horses in his first 12 starts combined as he'll face in one race on Saturday.

I think Quality Road is a monster. All the way out to nine furlongs. He might win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in a laugher, if he ran it. But I know that isn't the race his connections want ... nay, need ... to win.

Quality Road might make me look the fool and win the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday under John Velazquez, for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner/breeder Ned Evans, some of the most respected -- and respectable, and respectful -- people in this business. After all, I was dead-wrong last year when I suggested it might be best to root for Zenyatta in the Classic, but to bet against her.

But I've been taking a stand against him in personal discussions for awhile, based on the 10 furlongs. (That is, the last one furlong more than the first nine.) And I feel strongly enough about it to go public.

Good luck to all. And safe trip.

Pinch Hitter connects in fifth at-bat

In his fifth trip to the plate, Pinch Hitter swung wide and made a bold run for home Friday to win a maiden-claiming race at Philadelphia Park, becoming the 36th member of my sales-tip Class of 2010 to score.

The dark bay Vindication colt was the furthest outside in a wall of five horses vying for the early lead, a group that included 1/2 favorite Diski Dance and another of my 2010 juvenile sales selections, Lookin At Options, who was nearly 38/1. The five were separated by only a half-length in an opening quarter run in 23.11, but were finally stringing out a bit by the half (47.55), which found Pinch Hitter and eventual runner-up Crockefeller left to go head-to-head.

Pinch Hitter prevailed by 2 3/4 lengths in a time of 1:13.17. A 20/1 shot, Son of Posse, got up over Lookin At Options for third, but my bargain-basement sales-pick ($8,500 at EASMAY) did manage to salvage fourth and a $1,680 paycheck in a much-improved effort over his debut in maiden special weight company.

Pinch Hitter was bred in Kentucky by Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds, who couldn't get him sold as Hip 115 at the Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where the colt was a $45,000 RNA. He was trained for this win by Ronny Werner and ridden by Frankie Pennington. Pinch Hitter runs his lifetime earnings to $20,998.

I handicapped KEEAPR, so to speak, after the fact, accumulating lists of "Steals," and "The Surreal," in addition to the group in which this colt was included, "Possible Second-Chance Deals." One might have been able to purchase him privately after the sale, or, I reasoned, he might be entered again in a later sale.

He becomes the second member of that 11-horse Second-Chance Deals list to break his maiden. The other is the filly Evangelical (Speightstown-Evangelizer, by Saint Ballado), who didn't meet her reserve despite the bids reaching $100,000. She was second in her first two efforts and broke maiden in her third, at Belmont, earning $47,000 so far. Four others from that 11 have started without winning.

I considered Pinch Hitter a possible "deal" based on the brilliance of his fragile (four lifetime starts) and ill-fated sire, Vindication who died at stud when only 8 years old, combined with the female-family appeal of dam Solid Eight (Fit to Fight-Greenness(ARG), by Swallow the Sun). Solid Eight was a multiple listed-stakes winner (though of only 11 starts) who had already produced nine winners from 12 older foals. That group includes: EUCHRE (G2/G3, $900K); LOUIE THE LUCKY (14 wins, $258K); and C. C. ON ICE ($207K). Pinch Hitter's modest-winning half-sister Ale Eight Woman is the granddam of WAYZATA BAY (G2, $718K). Unraced half-sisters Solid Claim and Gretel Girl are minor stakes-producers. Pinch Hitter's granddam was an Argentine G1 winner.

Hurting Pinch Hitter's price might have been the fact that his dam was 22 at foaling -- very advanced in age for a broodmare -- and a mare's later foals often seem to be not as talented. That could be evidenced in this family, as in the decade since foaling Band Aight (Dixieland Band) who won five of 11, but in modest company for less than $32,000 total, Solid Eight produced a one-race War Chant colt, three by Unbridled's Song who went 3-for-16 between them for about $76K earned, and a 2007 Roman Ruler who is yet to race.

Still, this colt breezed a capable 10 2/5 and looked reasonably good doing it. And when other horses (on my surreal list, for example) sold for prices soaring above $300,000 without looking substantially better on paper or in their breeze, Pinch Hitter seems like a value.

He did have to drop in for $25,000 to get a win. But he's been improving, and if they can keep this son of Vindication sound, I think he'll continue to compete successfully when properly placed.

Pinch Hitter's win means that, through Friday's action, 19.3 percent of my juvenile sales-tips have managed to break maiden; that's 36 percent of the 100 to race. The group has made 301 starts and collected 48 wins, a strike rate of 16 percent. With 60 place-finishes, the class finishes in the exacta 35.9 percent of the time and an additional 29 "show" finishes make for an in-the-money rate of 45.5 percent.

Group earnings total $2,041,253. That rounds to $6,782 per start, and averages to $20,412.53 per runner.

Follow both my recommended horses and those I took a stand against in this comprehensive list.