So long, Eskendereya; hope you're bred to soundness

For the second straight season, a runaway winner of the Wood Memorial has approached Kentucky Derby Day as the likely favorite in the race, and been scratched before the Run for the Roses due to injury.

And with word of the retirement of this year's stunner of a scratch, it's possible we'll never see either of them race again. (Although last year's defector, I Want Revenge, just this morning posted a published work at Aqueduct; 3f in :38.25.)

Zayat Stables has announced that Eskendereya, victor in a runaway Wood, is through with racing due to the soft-tissue injury that kept him out of the Derby. Owner Ahmed Zayat says he will retain a significant ownership stake in the horse in a partnership with Jess Jackson, billionaire owner of Stonestreet Stables and Horses of the Year Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.

Zayat said that he and Jackson "will work to develop the best progeny for American racing."

Word of advice, Messrs Zayat and Jackson: A program to breed "the best progeny for American racing" really should endeavor to eliminate the trend of the fleet-but-fleeting, six-race superhorse.

In other words, as stallions, 4-for-6 Eskendereya, "not so much;" 11-for-16 Curlin, closer to a "yes," though his own sire raced but eight times and his dam not at all.

I understand that the current market will greet Eskendereya with open arms, just as it has eight-race wonder Empire Maker (who stands for $50,000 this year), sire of Zayat's own 10-race G1 winner Pioneerof The Nile, who didn't race past the Preakness his 3-year-old year. It shouldn't, but it will.

At the very least, I beg of you -- all of you, not just these men of abundant wealth, but anyone who is mating sire to dam in hopes of a racehorse -- give more than passing thought to soundness.

We've apparently spent the last several generations of thoroughbred breeding so focused on horses who'll breeze a 10-flat eighth at a 2-year-old sale to bring top-dollar -- and hopefully win a few graded stakes on their way to a post in one of those 20 starting gates at Churchill on the first day of each May -- such that now many of the fastest aren't even holding together long enough to reach the targeted race, let alone competing at age 4 and beyond.

Empire Maker raced eight times and Pioneerof The Nile's dam, Star of Goshen, only five; her dam just six. It could be argued that Pioneerof The Nile exceeded expectations by reaching double-digits in starts.

Lava Man went to post 47 times. With Slew City Slew (42 starts) and Li'l Miss Leonard (18 races) as his parents, it makes perfect sense. (And while Lava Man's second dam, Pink Native, was unraced, her sire Be a Native, raced 42 times, and her dam, Pink Khal, answered the call to post on 57 occasions.)

So please present Eskendereya nothing but mares from lineages that demonstrated rock-solid soundness. Mares who ran a couple-dozen times themselves, and who have siblings that totaled starts in the 40s or 50s. Or hundreds.

I just checked the stats. Empire Maker from his first three crops has 66 percent starters from all foals (not a particularly high number, but not atrocious). Yet their average number of starts per runner for Empire Maker's 190 foals to race: 6.5. Even accounting for the fact that a third of his runners just turned 3 and have had little chance, that simply isn't good enough. For example, fellow fourth-crop sire Macho Uno has a band of runners who are the same age as Empire Maker's, yet their number of starts average 9.2, a disparity I suspect will widen rather than narrow as these stallions' records develop over the next decade or more.

A fast horse is a thing of wonder.

Fast and fragile is not in the best interest of the horse, nor of racing's future. And there should be no wondering about that.

Pioneerof the Nile at career terminus: 'Twas a short trip

Ahmed Zayat's Pioneerof The Nile, winner of four straight graded-stakes before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby to Mine That Bird, has been retired due to a "soft tissue injury."

The injury wasn't fully described; only referenced as "a little filling in his leg" discovered by trainer Bob Baffert and staff.

The Blood-Horse -- in another notorious "edited press release" -- apparently is accepting Zayat Sables' labeling of the horse as "one of the top colts of his generation." ... Do they mean "crop?" Because that at least have a chance of being true.

In fact, because The Blood-Horse apparently isn't bothering to temper anyone's editorial commentary in their self-promotional press-releases, there's all sorts of gushing about Pioneerof The Nile in the "story."

It's said that jockey Garrett Gomez chose Pioneerof The Nile over $3.7 million yearling Dunkirk for the Kentucky Derby "as a demonstration of the respect (Pioneerof The Nile) commanded." ... But wouldn't a jockey be an idiot not to take the multiple-graded-stakes winner over a horse that had only cleared the maiden and allowance ranks, Dunkirk's placing in the Florida Derby notwithstanding?

The "story" fawns over the horse's combination of stamina and speed. And Baffert, according to Zayat, was "100 percent convinced that (Pioneerof The Nile) was going to win the Breeders' Cup Classic."

Good for them. I'm not 100 percent convinced of much of anything, including whether any horse will be sound and fit enough to race on Breeders' Cup weekend (theirs won't be), let alone win the biggest race on the card.

I'm not necessarily knocking Pioneerof The Nile, although I won't fawn over him, either. He was a talented horse who won half of his 10 lifetime starts and more than $1.6 million.

But I will go on record that 10 starts doesn't impress me. And his sire, Empire Maker, made all of eight before retiring unsound as a 3-year-old and not making it to the Breeders' Cup Classic. (Though Bobby Frankel called him the "best horse I have ever trained.") And while I hate to point fingers, here's the Unbridled line again, which also includes the aforementioned Dunkirk (by Unbridled's Song) who likewise is presently on the shelf due to injury.

"Thank God I'll get to see his progeny," says Zayat.

Well, for eight or 10 races, anyway.

Wither the Preakness starters? Here's my advice.

Late Saturday it started running through my head: If I were the connections of various Preakness starters, what would I do next?

Here are the conclusions I reached.

1. Rachel Alexandra: Winning the Preakness earned back a fair piece (maybe 6 to 10 percent) of her purchase price for Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables and Harold McCormick. She was impressive, tiring perhaps toward the end, but she did all the work in the race, gunning from the 13 hole and taking the field gate to wire. And jockey Calvin Borel said she didn't handle the track "110 percent." The Belmont is not a given; neither as a win (Mine That Bird is a'comin') nor even as a destination. She's defeated boys and can go back to beating up on fillies and have a fair chance at Horse of the Year -- clearly one of Jackson's goals -- without necessarily facing them again, especially if she knocks heads with defending filly and mare champ Zenyatta somewhere along the way and beats her, too. Unless Rachel is perfect in training the next three weeks, that's what I'd do. And maybe even then.

2. Mine That Bird: Better than I imagined, the Little Gelding Who Could probably will in the Belmont. He's a gelding, so the only way for him to earn his keep is by racing. If he's "right," he goes to New York, and probably as the favorite, with or without Rachel Alexandra. Look for him in some challenging spots at classic distances -- The Haskell at Monmouth early in August and the Travers at Saratoga at the end of the month, particularly. The goal is the Breeders' Cup Classic, but if that doesn't seem the best spot when that time comes, perhaps tackle the B.C. Marathon this year (he should get the distance; we'll know post-Belmont) and the Classic at 4.

3. Musket Man: Few Triple Crown-trail entrants have impressed me more than this colt. Sired by a sprinter who has already been banished from Kentucky to Louisiana (Yonaguska) he just doesn't seem bred to get the distances of the Preakness (9.5 furlongs) and Kentucky Derby (10f). But he "toughed" his way to third in both, and he won the Illinois Derby-G2 covering 9f at Hawthorne. It seemed his finishes at Churchill and Pimlico were all guts and not enough "kick;" he couldn't overtake Pioneerof The Nile at Churchill nor Rachel at Pimlico, and got outfinished by Mine That Bird. No shame in that and I'm not saying I'd never consider sending him longer than 8.5 or 9 furlongs again. But I do think he might be devastating in a one-turn mile.

4. Flying Private: What an improvement from Derby (last of 19) to Preakness (fourth). He might not have been as bad as the former and might not be as good as the latter; time will tell. Despite more than a quarter-million earned, he still has just one win from 12 starts. Time to get that second win in softer company.

5. Big Drama: Fifth place at Pimlico, but might've run the second-or third-biggest race. He already was coming into the Preakness with only one prep (DQ'ed from first in a 7f record-shattering performance at Gulfstream), and being asked to go an eighth more distance than he'd ever raced. Then he lived up to his name by bucking off John Velazquez in the starting gate, and followed that by bobbling the break. Somehow, he still made the co-lead with that freak of a filly while being wandered out into the center of the track, I can only presume in an effort to hang her out wide on the turn. Fifth beaten 5 1/2 doesn't seem so bad after all that. Nevertheless, as another, like Musket Man, who is sired by a sprinter (Montbrook) I would turn him back in his next start; maybe the G2 Woody Stephens at 7f on the Belmont undercard. We know he's a beast at that distance.

6. Papa Clem: This colt has had a tough trail. Second in both the Robert B. Lewis on the California circuit and the Louisiana Derby when shipped cross-country to Fair Grounds, he finally picked up that big graded win in the Arkansas Derby, over now-retired Old Fashioned. He was a brave fourth after a troubled trip on Derby Day, but a disappointing sixth at Pimlico despite less trouble than most of the field seems to have had. Seems time for a break. One of the best-bred in what is obviously a first-class group -- by Smart Strike, sire of Curlin and English Channel, and both his first two dams were G1 winners -- the sky is still the limit for this one. But after all that racing and traveling, a month or six weeks off could be in order.

7. Terrain: Has knocked heads with good horses, but hasn't won a race since Sept. 13, age 2, the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 -- and that by double-DQ. Bred to get a route of ground, he just hasn't been good enough to win in top-graded company. A move down in class from G1/G2 company is likely in order, at least until he wins a couple and regains confidence.

8. Luv Gov: Can we try NW2L company next out? Please?

9. General Quarters: Another one likely due for a break. He has campaigned hard and earned a bit of glory for his amazing, retired ex-school-principal owner/trainer/groom Thomas F. McCarthy, taking the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa. But he's made six starts already at 3 and is one of the few 2-year-olds who didn't really rest over the winter, running in four allowances (no wins?!) in October and November, then placing in Tampa's Inaugural Stakes two days after Christmas. Tenth at Churchill and ninth at Pimlico might be signs of fatigue. Break or not, I'd next send him back to the surface of his greatest victory -- synthetics. For Mr. McCarthy, that could mean working vacations to Canada (Woodbine) or California, or maybe just hanging around Chicago to try older horses in the Chicago H.-G3 on Independence Day at Arlington Park and the Washington Park H.-G3 in September.

10. Friesan Fire: Trouble at Churchill (18th place, suffering minor cuts on his legs), trouble at Pimlico (dropped almost to his knees at the start, finished 10th), so you'd think it might be time to pull back and regroup. But trainer Larry Jones is one of the best, and spaced this colt's races right leading up to the Derby. He shouldn't be too fatigued, though it's hard to imagine he came out of the Preakness terribly well, tough trip considered. But I wouldn't expect him to be sidelined all that long. While his sire is A.P. Indy, who usually throws plenty of stamina, his dam, Australian-bred Group 1-winner Bollinger, was a sprinter, so maybe the races in which he was so successful -- the Lecomte (8f), Risen Star (8.5f) and Louisiana Derby (8.5f), all at Fair Grounds -- are indicative that he's really a miler.

11. Pioneerof The Nile: I have two words for owner Ahmed Zayat and trainer Bob Baffert -- Hollywood Derby. Time and again we've seen synthetic performance translate to turf, and vice-versa, on the California circuit. He placed on synethic in the Lane's End at Keeneland, age 2, then ran a respectable fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. And he did everything right in four straight graded wins over synthetics leading up to Churchill. So we're goin' back to Cali (Cali, Cali) and is anyone gonna beat us? (I don't think so.) ... Seriously though, turns out Pioneer broke his maiden on the lawn at Saratoga, no mean feat. And while his sire, Empire Maker, might have run on dirt, Empire Maker's dam, Toussaud, was a turf mare and produced three G1/G2 turf winners, Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy. And (I've written this before), Pioneer's dam, Star of Goshen, was turf-stakes-placed, not to mention a daughter of noted turf sire, Lord At War(ARG), John's Call (Turf Classic Invitational, Sword Dancer Invitational) and Honor In War (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic) notable as G1-winning turf offspring. ... A bolder course of action would be to check out Pioneer's 3-year-old grass form in the Colonial Turf Cup-G2, two weeks after the Belmont (so five weeks of rest since Pimlico) and, if he wins there, point to the Virginia Derby-G2 and follow the Grand Slam of Grass trail all the way to the Breeders' Cup Turf-G1. ... But admittedly, I love grass horses.

12. Tone It Down: A return to allowance-level company is in order. I'll leave it at that until he shows me more.

13. Take The Points: I liked this colt prior to the Preakness. He was six-wide in the race, but I have a feeling something else went wrong, or perhaps they'll find he's not feeling well, because this battler had never been worse than fourth in his life. He's run his fastest going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, but was respectable in two starts on synthetics in California. Appears to be bred to go however far he needs, so I wouldn't absolutely cut him back in distance for good. Just figure out what went wrong and try to find a group he can beat next time.

Preakness, post-race, post-slumber

A collection of musings spilling forth after a night to sleep on how Rachel Alexandra won the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

Rachel Alexandra is as good as advertised. Mine That Bird proved to me he was better than I thought. Probably much better. Barring traffic problems that forced Mike Smith to swing him seven wide, he might have gotten up in time.


So, as some fans feared, Rachel Alexandra might have "stolen" our chance at the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978. Of course you never know how the race would have turned out with one fewer horse -- the winner, particularly. But if Rachel hadn't taken the Preakness from him, Mine That Bird, who came home second and full of run, might have had a very legit shot at a Triple Crown. He's sure looked like the only horse in the two races thus far who has handled 9.5f and 10f like he wanted even more ground. Of course, if "ifs and buts" were candy and nuts, then every day would be Christmas. (Or as Aussie bull rider Troy Dunn once quipped to me during a post-rodeo interview, "Yeah, and if me auntie had balls, she'd be me uncle.")

And thus, is Mark Allen now regretting his decision that prompted him to say it "ain't right" keeping Rachel out of the race by entering nominated-but-undeserving colts to protect Mine That Bird?

Reading the Preakness chart, I don't know that I've ever seen so many horses with evidence of troubled trips. The order of finish behind Rachel, with "trouble" notes as applicable: Mine That Bird (std'd 1/4, 7w); Musket Man (std'd rail 1/4); Flying Private (steadied early and 1/4); Big Drama(fractious gate, bobbled); Papa Clem; Terrain (run btw, in tight 3/16); Luv Gov (angled 8wd); General Quarters (shuffl early, std'd 1/8); Friesan Fire (bobbled st); Pioneerof The Nile (5wd btw); Tone It Down; Take The Points (6wd to far turn). ... Does this mean nine of 13 exit the race with some sort of excuse?

I love Calvin Borel. I love his enthusiasm. I love how "down to earth" he is. (Though with his upbringing, how could he not be?) I love that all he wants from life is to be around and to ride these horses; how that gives him unbridled joy; how it seems that he finds something to appreciate about every horse he meets, every one is "a good horse"; and how with him, they get better. Cheers, Calvin. May this run through the Oaks, Derby, Preakness and beyond make you one of the most in-demand riders in racing.

What now of the Belmont Stakes? If Mine That Bird comes out of the Preakness well and good, no doubt he should go. He'll be a favorite, if not the favorite, even if Rachel runs. Maybe she didn't like the Pimlico surface that much, or maybe she just hadn't been tested so hard before, but it appeared she was beginning to labor at the end of the Preakness; or at least wasn't as good as him at the end. She didn't look like a filly that would be comfortable at 12 furlongs. But her sire, Medaglia D'Oro, placed in the Belmont (to Sarava), so maybe. It would sure make the race worth watching, a "gender wars" rivalry between these two. But I don't want her going there if it's bad or wrong for her, and I'm not sure it wouldn't be wrong for her. ... Which leads us back to, "So, as some fans feared, Rachel Alexandra might have 'stolen' our first chance for a Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978."

If that's the case, it wouldn't be the first time. Most notable is 1968, when Forward Pass had won both the Derby (edit: by DQ) and Preakness. Then: Cue Stage Door Johnny. ... Having not competed in either prior Triple Crown race, he exited stage left with the Belmont trophy, relegating Forward Pass to second place and robbing him of marquee billing among racing's historic leading men.

And then there was Birdstone, sire of Mine That Bird. He did compete in the 2004 Derby, albeit well-beaten by Smarty Jones. Smarty took the Preakness handily while Birdstone rested and prepped for the Belmont. There, as we all recall, a Triple Crown again was denied, with a devastating late kick by a slightly smallish horse -- a stature and running style passed down from sire to son; a son whose shot at the crown was denied Saturday in Baltimore. ... The Racing Gods giveth, and they taketh away.

Preakness preview, post by post

Here's the 13-horse Preakness Stakes field, and my thoughts on each. Includes morning-line odds (demand better if red, take 'em if green), five-generation pedigree (5x) and individual past-performances as PDFs from Daily Racing Form (PPs):

1. Big Drama (Montbrook-Riveting Drama, by Notebook), 10-1, 5x, PPs: Talented colt whose 5-for-7 ($890,250) record would be 6-for-7 if not disqualified to second in his Gulfstream record-shattering triumph in the Swale S. (7f in 1:20.88, 108 Beyer). Sire was a sprinter whose progeny average winning distance is just 6.45 furlongs; dam unraced but producer of three blacktype. Despite his sire's history, he won two stakes at 8.5f at age 2, though now being asked to go a furlong further than he ever has, and due to injury with only one race thus far at 3. John Velazquez rides as Eibar Coa sticks with Derby-third Musket Man. Early speed will make him a factor, but might wither before the wire.

2. Mine That Bird (Birdstone-Mining My Own, by Smart Strike), 6-1, 5x, PPs: Derby winner probably hopes for a wet Preakness for a repeat performance. Race sets up for him with speed to his inside as he's likely to take back a little (or a lot) and can do so freely and quickly to the nearby rail. Young sire off to a good start, including this Canadian champion 2-year-old, and a pedigree with virtually zero distance limitations. Derby Beyer of 105 was a completely unpredictable advance from prior-best figures of 80 and 81, and regression here would be no surprise. Has won 5-of-9 for $1,791,581, under three different jocks; loses Calvin Borel to Rachel Alexandra but gets hall-of-famer Mike Smith. Odds close to fair, but would like him better if Calvin did, too.

3. Musket Man (Yonaguska-Fortuesque, by Fortunate Prospect), 8-1, 5x, PPs: Illinois Derby-G2 winner at a mile and an eighth, but the 98 Beyer would have to improve, for par among Preakness winners is 111. Consistent 5-for-7 and $772,662. Sire was a sprinter, but colt showed with Derby third at 10f that 9 1/2 furlongs shouldn't be too, too far, at least for his guts if not for his pedigree. Odds fair, but in this group, don't settle for much shorter.

4. Luv Gov (Ten Most Wanted-City of Silver, by Nepal), 50-1, 5x, PPs: I'm still convinced this horse is only in the field to let his connections save face after it was stated that they were entering him during the Allen/Zayat anti-Rachel plot of last Sunday. If this closer figures at all, of course, I'll look like a fool. But he only just broke maiden in his 10th lifetime start ($62,896 total), on the Derby undercard. Career-best Beyer (87) in that race, but Jamie Theriot would have to coax 20 more points out of him to win here. A scratch before post-time? (Please?)

5. Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy-Bollinger, by Dehere), 6-1, 5x, PPs: Derby 18th a better 6-1 shot than the Derby first Mine That Bird? Possibly, though I'd like to get slightly better. Difference is Friesan Fire was showing nothing but progress (Beyers 94, 97, 104) before getting squeezed, bumped and eliminated from contention in Derby, where Gabriel Saez cantered him home, saving energy the 'Bird spent. Had won 4-of-7 for $603,265 prior, over fast strips and in the slop. Sire one of the best in America; dam an Aussie-bred Group 1 winner on turf.

6. Terrain (Sky Mesa-Minery, by Forty Niner), 30-1, 5x, PPs: For great-grandson of A.P. Indy out of a stakes winning Forty Niner mare (multiple blacktype-producer), distance won't be a problem. Has been a consistent performer, albeit consistently not first since three straight wins (one by double-DQ in the Arlington-Washington Futurity) in his first three races. Career-best Beyer a 91 coming home a hailing-distance third behind Friesan Fire (and close to placer Papa Clem) in sloppy Louisiana Derby-G2. Jock Jeremy Rose knows how to find winner's circle in Preakness (Afleet Alex). Beaten by four others who are in this race (also General Quarters and Big Drama) but did finish second to Pioneerof The Nile's third in Breeders' Futurity-G1. Exotics only.

7. Papa Clem (Smart Strike-Miss Houdini, by Belong To Me), 12-1, 5x, PPs: Gutty performer has won just two of seven, but for $899,940 as one was the Arkansas Derby-G2 wrested away from once-Derby-Trail-favorite (now injured) Old Fashioned. Has lost to several in the field, but had to be steadied and still finished only a half-length out of second in the Derby to Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man. Dam a G1-winning 2-year-old (Del Mar Debutante) who only lasted four starts; second dam won a pair of G1s and earned $903,000. Barely beat Terrain in Louisiana Derby-G2, but has progressed. Career-best 101 Beyer is close enough to threaten. Sire throws classic-distance champions (Curlin, English Channel) on dirt and turf. Rafael Bejarano will give him a chance, and at a price.

8. General Quarters (Sky Mesa-Ecology, by Unbridled's Song), 20-1, 5x, PPs: Horse has won three of 12 for $641,735, but one was the Blue Grass S.-G1 at Keeneland, which got him into the Derby for owner and one-horse trainer Thomas R. McCarthy. I liked him at Churchill and probably shouldn't have; he wandered home 10th, beaten nearly 18. But PPs show bounces followed by peaks -- 102 Beyer beating Musket Man in the Sam F. Davis-G3 followed by 81 in losing to the same horse in the Tampa Bay Derby-G3. Followed-up with a winning 95 in the Blue Grass, then dipped to 79 at Churchill. Is the Preakness under Julien Leparoux his next peak, at twice the Churchill price?

9. Pioneerof The Nile (Empire Maker-Star of Goshen, by Lord At War), 5-1, 5x, PPs: Mr. Consistency is, other than Rachel Alexandra, the overall class of the field. Grade 1 wins at 2 and 3; 5-for-9 for $1,634,200; four straight graded wins prior to a Derby-second under Garrett Gomez; dam a stakes winner and multiple graded-blacktype producer. Hard to knock, but something tells me I want at least that 5-1 and might not get it. ... An aside, by Empire Maker (dam Toussaud a graded stakes-winning turf mare, siblings Chester House, Chiselling and Decarchy graded turf winners) and out of a turf-blacktype Lord At War mare, when do I get to see this colt on the lawn?

10. Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus-Beautiful Treasure, by Unbridled), 50-1, 5x, PPs: Derby-winning sire was second in Preakness. Dam was stakes-placed. Has gotten 9 furlongs decently (94, 91 Beyers) in the Lane's End-G2 and Arkansas Derby-G2. Only one win in 11 tries, but has knocked heads in graded company of late and earned nearly $200,000. Still, took three races to break maiden and has faced N1x allowance company four times without getting that second win, so two stakes-placings (at 6f and 9f), one graded, were hard to predict. Alan Garcia takes over from Derby rider Robby Albarado. Will be near the front and (with four seconds) sometimes fights to hang on for a piece. A better 50-1 shot than Luv Gov.

11. Take The Points (Even The Score-Ginger Ginger, by Fred Astaire), 30-1, 5x, PPs: Second-best (by 6) to early-fave-turned-off-Derby-trail The Pamplemousse in G3 Sham, then a respectable fourth behind Pioneerof The Nile, Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff in the Santa Anita Derby-G1. Stamina influences abound in pedigree; the distance won't be a problem. Dam unplaced in one start, but also produced an Indiana-bred restricted stakes winner in Tin Man Commin (Tinner's Way). Only six starts, but top Beyer is a 99, and he's a fighter who has never been worse than fourth. And, both career wins came in his only two starts under Edgar Prado, who takes him back today. Live at 30-1.

12. Tone It Down (Medaglia D'Oro-Chattin, by Rollicking), 50-1, 5x, PPs: Connections must have been encouraged by show finish in Pimlico's Federico Tesio on Derby Day, but considering the top two finishers in that race weren't deemed worthy of the Preakness, this colt shouldn't have been, either. Top Beyer of 87 would fall far short. Dam only a modest winner, but produced Maryland-bred champ filly Gin Talking (Allen's Prospect). Gets hall-of-famer Kent Desormeaux, who must've been desperate for a Preakness ride as he elbows out Maryland-circuit staple Mario Pino, who'd ridden the colt every race of his life prior. (Desormeaux otherwise is riding today in the Dixie-G2 and two maiden-specials.) Should be near the front, but seems to have little chance.

13. Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia D'Oro-Lotta Kim, by Roar), 8-5, 5x, PPs: Belle of the ball has the boys' boxers in a bunch. Comes in soaring off a 20 1/4-length romp in the Kentucky Oaks that earned a 108 Beyer, her fifth straight win in as many starts with Calvin Borel and her fourth consecutive triple-digit figure, the fifth being a tick below at 99. Borel to a degree handicapped this race for everyone by taking off the Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to stick with a filly. Yes, she is that good. By a Grade-1 classic-distance winner out of a stakes winning mare who is half to two other blacktype runners. Much points to her being the first filly to win this race since Nellie Morse in 1924, but at this price (or potentially even shorter) she's a bet-against. A front-running filly who has been no worse than a head off the lead in her five wins with Borel, she might have the speed to make the lead or come close, but she'll need to reach the front (or else change character and take back) or risk losing ground on the first turn from Post 13. Only good thing about the post is that she won't be bullied from both sides by jealous boys, though someone might try to hang her out wide. And how will she respond to her sale and the resulting barn switch from the only trainer she's ever known, Hal Wiggins, to Steve Asmussen? She's been the most prohibitive of favorites in her last four against fillies, and might be short-priced again here, but this is a much tougher test. Good luck and Godspeed to her; she'll need it. And if you take her to win, key her over someone in the exotics if you hope to make any serious money.

All said, this could be a Preakness for the ages. Safe trip to all, and let's hope it's remembered only for good reasons.

(Full-field PPs free from DRF's Formulator.)

The plot is off: Rachel is in

Thank goodness. I was starting to think Mine That Bird wasn't the only member of his team to have been gelded.

A split-second after publishing a lengthy blog post criticizing the Derby winner's connections for trying to conspire to keep filly Rachel Alexandra out of the Preakness (in cahoots with Ahmed Zayat, breeder/owner of Pioneerof The Nile), Thoroughbred Times now tells us that the fix is off. Mine That Bird's connections, including Double Eagle Ranch (Mark Allen) and Buena Suerte Equine, have backed away from the idea.

Since Rachel Alexandra, now owned primarily by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, was not an original nominee and must be supplemented to the Triple Crown races (for $100,000), Allen, Zayat and, by some reports, even the venerated horsewoman Marylou Whitney (owner of the sire) seemed bound to keep the filly out by all means necessary. Allen planned to enter a nominated maiden, Indy Express, and Whitney a recent maiden-breaker who is 1-for-10 lifetime in Luv Gov. (Edit: Whitney's camp says they'd only enter Luv Gov if he didn't keep Rachel Alexandra out of the race. But you can't convince me they were ever serious about actually running a 1-for-10 horse in a Grade 1 race.)

Sports Illustrated says Allen, who initially told Thoroughbred Times that he just wanted his jockey back (Calvin Borel took off 'Bird to ride Rachel), eventually decided that shutting the filly out of the race "just ain't right." I'm glad he reached that conclusion, whatever coercion there might have been behind the scenes to achieve that change of heart. (Allen says there was none.)

The only bad thing about Allen and Zayat changing their minds is the reduced impact of the awesome illustration commissioned for the first, fuming blog. At least I still think it's funny.

In the long run, provided Rachel runs sound in the Preakness (regardless whether she wins) this is the best resolution for racing, and even for Mine That Bird. Why risk turning a potential folk hero -- the 50/1 Derby long-shot winner -- into the villain? Now if he wins the Preakness under a different rider (edit: Looks like Mike Smith), most fans will be rooting for the diminutive, gelded son of Birdstone to win a Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes, not against him.

Maybe even me.

Borel's bet: He chooses filly for the Preakness

So it is confirmed: Rachel Alexandra's new connections, primarily Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables, will send the Kentucky Oaks-winning filly to take on the boys in the May 16 Preakness Stakes.

And Calvin Borel, the jockey who pulled off the Oaks-Derby double at Churchill May 1 and 2 has taken off Derby champion Mine That Bird to ride the filly.

It's a good decision for Borel, albeit with some risk. If Rachel Alexandra can beat colts in a Triple Crown race, it will go down as one of the most memorable renewals of the Preakness. And obviously Borel thinks the filly has as much or better chance to win than Mine That Bird, who was a surprise Derby victor (largely due to a spectacular ride by Borel) at 50-1 odds.

If Mine That Bird somehow wins the Preakness -- possible, though he's looking now at being at best third- or fourth-favored in the race (behind Rachel Alexandra, probably Pioneerof The Nile and perhaps a horse like Musket Man) -- then it will be under some other jockey. And that jockey will have a shot at a share of the highly improbable glory when the gelding heads to New York, where his sire, Birdstone, robbed Smarty Jones of a Triple Crown with a late run in the 2004 Belmont Stakes.

Good luck to Rachel Alexandra. May she acquit herself well at Pimlico, and most importantly, may everyone come home safe and sound.