So long, Eskendereya; hope you're bred to soundness

For the second straight season, a runaway winner of the Wood Memorial has approached Kentucky Derby Day as the likely favorite in the race, and been scratched before the Run for the Roses due to injury.

And with word of the retirement of this year's stunner of a scratch, it's possible we'll never see either of them race again. (Although last year's defector, I Want Revenge, just this morning posted a published work at Aqueduct; 3f in :38.25.)

Zayat Stables has announced that Eskendereya, victor in a runaway Wood, is through with racing due to the soft-tissue injury that kept him out of the Derby. Owner Ahmed Zayat says he will retain a significant ownership stake in the horse in a partnership with Jess Jackson, billionaire owner of Stonestreet Stables and Horses of the Year Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.

Zayat said that he and Jackson "will work to develop the best progeny for American racing."

Word of advice, Messrs Zayat and Jackson: A program to breed "the best progeny for American racing" really should endeavor to eliminate the trend of the fleet-but-fleeting, six-race superhorse.

In other words, as stallions, 4-for-6 Eskendereya, "not so much;" 11-for-16 Curlin, closer to a "yes," though his own sire raced but eight times and his dam not at all.

I understand that the current market will greet Eskendereya with open arms, just as it has eight-race wonder Empire Maker (who stands for $50,000 this year), sire of Zayat's own 10-race G1 winner Pioneerof The Nile, who didn't race past the Preakness his 3-year-old year. It shouldn't, but it will.

At the very least, I beg of you -- all of you, not just these men of abundant wealth, but anyone who is mating sire to dam in hopes of a racehorse -- give more than passing thought to soundness.

We've apparently spent the last several generations of thoroughbred breeding so focused on horses who'll breeze a 10-flat eighth at a 2-year-old sale to bring top-dollar -- and hopefully win a few graded stakes on their way to a post in one of those 20 starting gates at Churchill on the first day of each May -- such that now many of the fastest aren't even holding together long enough to reach the targeted race, let alone competing at age 4 and beyond.

Empire Maker raced eight times and Pioneerof The Nile's dam, Star of Goshen, only five; her dam just six. It could be argued that Pioneerof The Nile exceeded expectations by reaching double-digits in starts.

Lava Man went to post 47 times. With Slew City Slew (42 starts) and Li'l Miss Leonard (18 races) as his parents, it makes perfect sense. (And while Lava Man's second dam, Pink Native, was unraced, her sire Be a Native, raced 42 times, and her dam, Pink Khal, answered the call to post on 57 occasions.)

So please present Eskendereya nothing but mares from lineages that demonstrated rock-solid soundness. Mares who ran a couple-dozen times themselves, and who have siblings that totaled starts in the 40s or 50s. Or hundreds.

I just checked the stats. Empire Maker from his first three crops has 66 percent starters from all foals (not a particularly high number, but not atrocious). Yet their average number of starts per runner for Empire Maker's 190 foals to race: 6.5. Even accounting for the fact that a third of his runners just turned 3 and have had little chance, that simply isn't good enough. For example, fellow fourth-crop sire Macho Uno has a band of runners who are the same age as Empire Maker's, yet their number of starts average 9.2, a disparity I suspect will widen rather than narrow as these stallions' records develop over the next decade or more.

A fast horse is a thing of wonder.

Fast and fragile is not in the best interest of the horse, nor of racing's future. And there should be no wondering about that.

Looks like a Devil of a Derby

Thoroughbred Times' text-messaging service a few minutes ago informed me that the Kentucky Oaks indeed has drawn up without top filly Devil May Care, suggesting that trainer Todd Pletcher -- who has lost likely favorite Eskendereya and in-the-field Rule in less than a week -- is absolute in his decision to run his Grade 1-winning girl against the boys on Saturday in the Kentucky Derby.

Eskendereya was declared out on Sunday due to a slight filling in his left fore. Rule was dismissed from Derby entry by his connections because the Roman Ruler colt just wasn't where they wanted him to be in his training leading up to the run for the roses.

Devil May Care is reportedly tearing up the Churchill track in training. And Pletcher -- who in 2007 won the Belmont Stakes with a filly in Rags to Riches -- has said the decision to run her in the Derby became more clear with Eskendereya's defection. Not only was the race-favorite on the sidelines, but so was his jockey, John Velazquez, who is among Pletcher's preferred riders.

Plus, the filly will benefit from a five-pound break in the weights; no small advantage at a mile and a quarter.

Pletcher also expects to start Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Mission Impazible (fifth in graded earnings), G2-winning 2-year-old Super Saver (12th) and Risen Star S.-G3 winner Discreetly Mine (14th). A fifth Pletcher horse, Interactif, a dual G3-winner at 2, is 16th in graded earnings and could be in the race, but his entry is still uncertain.

P.S. Let the Eight Belles references commence, hopefully with some measure of restraint and a nod to the fillies who've worn the roses (Winning Colors, Genuine Risk and, way back in 1915, Regret), or the umpteen to have run and not won nor broken down, most recently Excellent Meeting (the betting favorite who finished fifth) and Three Ring, who both were entered in '99.

T-Times on a tear with texts today

I signed up recently for the racing-news text-notification offered by Thoroughbred Times.

It seems like a pretty good service. I learned Saturday that Hurricane Ike upset the field in the Derby Trial soon after the race, even though I was unable to be anywhere that I could watch it. And this morning, the service woke me up with news that Eskendereya would be out of the Kentucky Derby. Even as "just" a fan, that second brief, in particular, is something I want to know right away; not later in the day.

Then, at 1:32 p.m., comes this message.

"TTimes Alert: Sunland Derby winner Endorsement gets day off."

Let's see:

1. Sublime Wood Memorial winner off the Derby trail six days out from the race due to injury.

2. Endorsement -- who despite winning the G3 Sunland Derby has only made four starts in his life, winning two (though he's "in" for the Derby at 10th in graded earnings) -- walks the shedrow instead of galloping this morning because, well, his trainer, Shannon Ritter, "likes to give (a horse) a day off every once in awhile."

When it comes to buzzing my phone with text notices about horse racing news, I have a little ditty to share with Thoroughbred Times.

I trust it will be received in good humor.

At least the breaking news about Endorsement's casual Sunday isn't the bulletin that woke me.

Eskendereya declared out of Derby

I thought this might be the year for the Storm Cat line to finally get its first son to wear the garland of roses on the first Saturday of May. But a text alert to my phone from Thoroughbred Times buzzed me awake at 9:34 Sunday morning with the news that the horse almost certain to be the morning-line and post-time favorite, Eskendereya, was declared out of the Kentucky Derby.

The Giant's Causeway colt was arguably the best chance Todd Pletcher has ever had to get his first Derby winner as trainer, as well.

Details will follow soon as the working race-media can provide them. At present, the latest on Bloodhorse.com still suggests that the horse's trainer was trying to decide this morning on whether to send out Eskendereya and Derby-possible Interactif for Sabbath-day works over a track affected by heavy rains the day prior.

(Update: The Blood-Horse reports at 10 a.m. that Pletcher says the horse is experiencing a "slight filling" in his left front leg. Tests will determine the nature and severity. Pletcher said the horse is not lame.)

The declaration marks the second year in a row that a scintillating Wood Memorial winner can't make the gate at Churchill for health reasons. I Want Revenge was scratched on Derby morn after his connections and veterinarians determined he wasn't fit to race. His unsoundness prompted a lawsuit between members of the ownership group and a New York Times story trying to make I Want Revenge the poster horse for how legal pharmaceuticals affect racing. The Stephen Got Even colt has never raced again.

Let's hope this isn't the last we've seen of Eskendereya.

Lookin at Lucky could be a Derby Day value

Gloom, despair and agony on me;

Deep dark depression excessive misery;

If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all;

Gloom, despair and agony on me.

No, I'm not complaining about my job search. Rather, the recent misfortune of a champion colt whose name would suggest he should enjoy much better fortunes: Lookin at Lucky.

It's hard to say that a horse is riding a hard-luck streak when he's 6-for-8 lifetime, has earned more than $1.5 million, was an Eclipse winner at 2, and still is among the better bets for May 1's Kentucky Derby. That is, unless you've closely watched his last few races. And if you have or you do -- though Eskenderya was awe-inspiring Saturday in the Wood Memorial (and I'll write about him soon, as well) -- you'll be reminded why Lookin at Lucky is one of the precious few to beat in the Run for the Roses.

After all, the colt woulda, coulda, shoulda been perfect as a juvenile, but drew the 13-hole for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was stuck wide throughout behind a slow pace at Santa Anita. Finishing with a rush beneath Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky came up inches short, a nose behind long-shot European invader Vale of York, who benefited from a dream trip on the rail thanks to rider Ahmed Ajtebi.

Since returning to the track in 2010, Lookin at Lucky has raced twice, and despite a Grade 2 win and a Grade 1 placing, he's still mired in a streak of bad trips.

Coming into the race after an 84-day layoff, in the Rebel S.-G2 on March 13, Lookin at Lucky jumped heels and broke stride on the back stretch while fellow top contenders Dublin (7/5 on the final odds) and Noble's Promise proceeded unimpeded. The champion and Gomez gathered themselves for a second charge, had to take the overland route going wide on the far turn, and charged down the middle of the Oaklawn track to just nip Noble's Promise at the wire.

And on Saturday at Santa Anita, the trip was even worse. While eventual winner Sidney's Candy was beyond doubt impressive in wiring the field, he benefited from leisurely fractions of 24-flat and 48.50. Meanwhile, Lookin at Lucky and Gomez were cut off just as they were getting into gear on the far turn. Race-caller Trevor Denman said the horse was "in tight ... got stopped cold (and) has dropped out."

When was the last time you saw a horse who had "dropped out" of a mile and an eighth race with less than three furlongs to go, come back to finish third in what was practically a hand-ride?

Setsuko came on down the center of the track to nab a far-back second to Sidney's Candy. But Gomez later said of his colt, "there was no need for me to start banging on him in trying to run second or third when I know we've got another race ahead." Victor Espinoza, whose mount Who's Up cut off Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby, got a three day ban for his ride and a couple of knuckle sandwiches at the scales from Gomez, who was fined $750 for the fisticuffs. (Sounds about fair.) And Lookin at Lucky's trainer, Bob Baffert, despite calling Gomez's ride "horrendous," will leave the jockey on the horse, as I believe he should.

So what are we left with?

One of the best horses in the country, I think, likely sharper than we realize, and with a two-turn dirt win (the Rebel) under his belt that most Cal-based runners lack these days. He still has one of the nation's best in the irons. And now he'll likely to be sent off as the third, fourth or even fifth choice at Churchill on Derby Day.

With his wonderful Wood, Eskendereya has stamped himself the almost certain post-time favorite, provided he stays healthy and his works are on-track. Sidney's Candy just trounced a pretty fair group in the Santa Anita Derby, and only one horse -- that being the unlucky "Lucky" -- has any excuse.

I still believe Odysseus has tremendous potential. He crushed eventual Rushaway Stakes winner Exhi by 15 lengths in an allowance race. Then he came back from seeming defeat -- announcer Richard Grunder said Odysseus would "have to wait for another day" near the top of the stretch -- to win the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on a freakish resurgence and pure guts in a three-horse drive. And should he win the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes this Saturday (his likely target) or the Arkansas Derby-G1 (his connections' second choice), he would become a major betting interest at Churchill.

I doubt surprise Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Mission Impazible will count for too much in the Churchill wagering, nor will gate-to-wire Illinois Derby-G3 winner American Lion, who still isn't quite living up to expectations. But if Odysseus doesn't win one of this weekend's final Derby preps and horses like Interactif (who is Blue Grass-bound) and Dublin (at Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby) do, they'll likely be among the top four to six favorites at Kentucky Derby post time.

It's inaccurate to speculate that Lookin at Lucky will be a "price" horse at Churchill Downs. But the past five years of wagering history suggest that even as the third or fourth-favored horse, he's likely to be sent off on Derby Saturday at somewhere between 6/1 and 10/1. Fifth-favored would be almost guaranteed double-digit odds.

Imagine the possibility of a $20 or $25 Derby payout on a reigning 2-year-old champion.

And all Lookin at Lucky might need to cash in is just enough good fortune to finally get a decent draw and a halfway-clean trip.

D' Funnybone: Router in disguise?

You have to hand it to a man who knows his limitations. Or his horse's.

But I can't help but wonder whether Paul Pompa Jr. and trainer Rick Dutrow haven't written off the Kentucky Derby chances of their brilliant charge D' Funnybone without really giving him a chance to prove whether or not he can handle the task. Pompa says the horse will eventually be pointed to the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, instead.

The Blood-Horse reported Friday that Pompa and Dutrow kept D' Funnybone -- four for six lifetime including three Grade 2 sprint wins -- entered in the 7-furlong Swale S.-G2 today at Gulfstream, rather than taking a crack at the Grade 1 Florida Derby at a mile and an eighth after the defection of likely favorite Eskenderyea, who will wait for the Wood Memorial-G1 before running again.

To be sure, the Florida Derby would be the bigger test for more reasons than distance. D' Funnybone is the 6/5 favorite for the Swale and will likely go off at a short price. Even with Eskendereya out of the Florida Derby and seven of 11 entrants in the race (including Barbaro's brother, Lentenor) having just one win each to their credit, the Grade 1 field still contains two top Kentucky Derby contenders. The 5/2 morning-line favorite is Rule, who has two G3 wins at route distances. The 3/1 second choice is Radiohead, a Group 2 winner in his native England (prior to a Breeders' Cup flop) who has come back in 2010 to win his 3-year-old debut in good fashion. And simply facing 11 opponents in the Florida Derby instead of seven others in the Swale suggests a more difficult task.

But Pompa says D' Funnybone isn't running in the Florida Derby because he "isn't a mile and a quarter horse."

Granted, he's Pompa's horse. And Rick Dutrow has plenty of experience as a trainer. They've seen the horse in the flesh, plenty. They've watched the horse work.

But they know that D' Funnybone "isn't a mile and a quarter horse" exactly ... how?

It isn't because they've worked him a mile and watched him collapse after seven furlongs. Of 11 published works for D' Funnybone available at DRF.com, none have been longer than six furlongs.

I presume some of their decision is based on pedigree, though if Pompa and Dutrow looked more closely, they might be at least still be toying with thoughts of the Derby.

Their colt is by D'Wildcat, a sprinter who won the Swale Stakes in 2001, a feat his son hopes to repeat today. But even D'Wildcat wasn't exactly bred solely to sprint.

His sire, Forest Wildcat (likewise a successful sprinter), nonetheless sired G1-winning miler Forest Secrets, a filly who also was a G3 winner at 9 furlongs. Forest Wildcat's daughter Snow Dance won five graded-stakes at more than a mile on turf, including the G2 New York Handicap at a mile and a quarter. Son Behindatthebar won the G2 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland going a mile and a sixteenth. Daughter Brownie Points was a dual-surface runner who spent most of her time in stakes company running a mile to nine furlongs, including a runner-up finish to Zenyatta in the 2008 Apple Blossom H.-G1 at a mile and a sixteenth and a win at a mile and an eighth on turf in the Edward P. DeBartolo Sr. Memorial Handicap.

D'Wildcat's dam, D'Enough, won five times at route distances and was third in the Montauk Handicap at a mile and an eighth. Her sire, Secretariat's son D'Accord, won the Grade 2 Breeders' Futurity at a mile and a sixteenth as a juvenile. And of course her grandsire was the 1973 Triple Crown winner: Derby (10f), Preakness (9.5f) and Belmont Stakes (12f).

D' Wildcat is a young stallion. His 2-year-olds of 2010 are just his fourth crop to race. But among his five stakes winners, daughter Authenicat has managed to score in stakes company at 8.5 furlongs at Woodbine (she also has multiple sprint-stakes wins), and ill-fated daughter The Golden Noodle (who died in a farm accident while on layup) was Grade 1 placed at a mile and a sixteenth as a 2-year-old in the Hollywood Starlet.

Granted, there isn't a ton of stamina on the top half of D'Funnybone's pedigree. And there's a big difference between a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth, and going 10 furlongs; a mile and a quarter. But not every horse you find oughta be running 400 yards against Quarter Horses, either. And on the bottom of his pedigree, there's plenty of evidence to suggest he can get a little bit of distance.

D' Funnybone's dam, Elbow (which resulted in her son receiving one of the truly creative names in racing today), was sired by Woodman, whose Grade 1 get included distinctly classic-distance horses in Preakness/Belmont winner Hansel, Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Preakness winner Timber Country, Whitney Handicap winner Mahogany Hall, Hawk Wing (English/Irish 3-year-old highweight from 9.5-11f), and Irish One Thousand Guineas winner Hula Angel.

Elbow doesn't just have stamina on the top side of her pedigree, either. She was out of the mare Elvia, who was by classic-distance sire Roberto and out of the 9-furlong G1-winning Lyphard mare, Chain Bracelet. And Elbow has produced runners at a distance; D' Funnybone's minor stakes-winning half-sister Dr. Kathy (Polish Numbers) was third behind champion Ashado in the 2003 Demoiselle S.-G2 at 9 furlongs, a marathon for 2-year-olds.

True, Pompa and Dutrow haven't ruled out running D' Funnybone at route distances. Pompa says that next up for his colt -- should D' Funnybone come out of the Swale in good shape -- could be the Grade 3 Withers Stakes going a mile at Aqueduct on April 24. If that goes well, the 9.5-furlong Preakness could await. Pompa believes the sixteenth-shorter distance of the Preakness vs. the Kentucky Derby could be the difference for D' Funnybone, and adds that the "tight turns" of Pimlico better suit the colt's running style. (On the subject of Pimlico's turns, this is worth a read.)

I'm not criticizing Paul Pompa and Rick Dutrow, per se. Second-guessing, maybe. Today and the Florida Derby would have been a great time to find out if their colt could get 9 furlongs as a stepping-stone toward getting 10 at Churchill.

But I have to credit Pompa with doing what he thinks is best for the horse, particularly at a time in a good colt's career where almost any owner of almost any horse with half a snowball's chance of making the starting gate at Churchill on the first Saturday in May is trying to beg, borrow or steal their way into the race.

Pompa notes that he got a chance to experience a Kentucky Derby win as a quarter-owner of Big Brown in 2008, after selling a majority interest to IEAH. So getting back there for him doesn't have such urgency. And he's concerned about ruining D' Funnybone, who is running well and building a decent stallion resume that would be cemented without classic-distance victories could he secure future wins in Grade 1 races like the Vosburgh Stakes, Breeders' Cup Sprint or particularly a one-turn mile like the Cigar Mile Handicap or the "Met Mile," which have often suited sprinter-types.

So I suspect D' Funnybone will run off with the Swale today and leave me wishing I could have seen him try to smash the Florida Derby field with equal aplomb.

I think the horse might be that good. And until proven otherwise, I'm reasonably convinced that he can run farther than his connections might think he can.

Derby field taking shape ... of a blob

Maybe more than in any other season of recent memory, I'm impressed by the field of Kentucky Derby hopefuls as February makes the turn for home into March.

"Impressed" not quite so much by the brilliance of talent -- though there are some very nice horses vying for those 20 starting gate spots -- but by the depth of the pool of hopefuls. With a couple of notable exceptions, it's hard to separate the top 25 to 30 horses that could be considered most likely to make their way to Churchill for the first Saturday in May.

Saturday's brace of races -- six that were considered potential Derby-preps -- added to the reputations of some contenders, but also muddied the waters a bit.

On Saturday night, I picked my initial 10 horses for the annual Road to the Roses competition online, and scored a few points (though not nearly enough for weekly honors) as D' Funnybone came home winner of the Hutcheson, and Eskendereya won the Fountain of Youth, with another of my choices, Jackson Bend, figuring, as well.

But those 10 horses aren't exactly the top 10 contenders in my mind. They were chosen solely to score points in the contest (and not well-chosen, at that), while there are others who weren't running last week (Lookin at Lucky, particularly) who belong high on the list.

So I guess I'll chime in with my Top 10 Derby Contenders as of Feb. 22, on the heels of some key races that have helped shape my opinion -- from mere blob, to a blob with some gelatinous qualities that will set up a bit more over time. And if I'm wrong and the blob never takes on a winning form, we can just make Jell-O shots and forget our worries.

1. Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway-Aldebaran Light, by Seattle Slew). Stellar winner of the Fountain of Youth at 9 furlongs, and bred to get the mile and a quarter of the Derby (and perhaps beyond) with ease. Sire Giant's Causeway had three Grade 1 wins going 10 panels or more, this colt's dam was by a Triple Crown winner in Seattle Slew, and second dam Altair was by Alydar, who was second in all three TC races to America's last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed. No doubt the horse has the pedigree and class to run in Derby company, and trainer Todd Pletcher should get him there. ... Pletcher, however, is yet to win a Kentucky Derby. Perhaps this colt will be his first.

2. Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike-Private Feeling, by Belong to Me). Divisional champ at 2, but unraced thus far at age 3 and didn't exactly set the world ablaze with his 1:15 and change 6-furlong work today at Santa Anita. Prior works had been much sharper, however. He was the classiest 2-year-old in the country last year, but needs to get off the sidelines and back in a race to regain the No. 1 spot in my mind. I'm also not very compelled to give much weight to Cal-based horses until I've seen them on real dirt, so Lucky might be the only name from that circuit in this Top 10.

3. Conveyance (Indian Charlie-Emptythetill, by Holy Bull). Not thrilled with his pedigree for getting the distance, all though the sire was third in the Derby himself. But it's hard to ignore 4-for-4 and the ability to transition from synthetic, on which he won the San Rafael S.-G3 at Santa Anita onto conventional dirt, over which he annexed the Southwest S.-G3 at Oaklawn on Saturday. Dam was a three-race maiden who hasn't yet produced anything else of note, and second dam In The Till (Mr. Prospector) was unraced, but did produce several stakes-placers.

4. Rule (Roman Ruler-Rockcide, by Personal Flag). I'm not entirely convinced of this colt's pedigree for getting a mile and a quarter, but also can't ignore that his second dam is Belle's Good Cide, who was dam of Derby/Preakness winner Funny Cide, and some doubted that gelding's ability to get a classic distance, too, until he dusted favored Empire Maker in the Churchill stretch and crushed 'em all two weeks later at Pimlico. Rule broke maiden at a mile and has a pair of Grade 3 wins at a mile and a sixteenth, so two turns in itself isn't a problem. We'll see if he can carry his brilliance to 10 furlongs.

5. Odysseus (Malibu Moon-Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo). Only three races under his belt, but the last two -- a maiden-breaker at Gulfstream in January and a recent allowance score at Tampa -- were impressive. Could be the Big Brown of 2009, though hopefully without the brittle feet. Malibu Moon can get a classic-distance horse, especially with the stamina of Conquistador Cielo (a Belmont winner) and Nijinsky II (St. Leger winner at 14f) on the dam's side in this one. Look out for him in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 13.

6. Buddy's Saint (Saint Liam-Tuzia, by Blushing John). Broke maiden in the Nashua Stakes at age 2, then showed he could get a distance by winning the 9-furlong Remsen S.-G2, a long haul for a juvenile. Desperately needed a race off the layoff in the Fountain of Youth Saturday, and failed to figure.

7. D' Funnybone (D'Wildcat-Elbow, by Woodman). Sharp winner of the Hutcheson S.-G2 at Gulfstream Saturday would merit more consideration if he had success at a route of ground to his credit by now. The Hutcheson was but 7 furlongs and he won it well, but were the "real" Derby hopefuls in the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth at the same track on the same day? It isn't inconceivable that D' Funnybone can get the Derby distance. His dam is by Woodman, a reasonable source of stamina, and second dam Elvia was by classic-distance sire Roberto out of a blacktype mare by classic-distance sire Lyphard. ... So I ask trainer Rick Dutrow, "When are we gonna see this boy get some ground?"

8. Super Saver (Maria's Mon-Supercharger, by A.P. Indy). Another Pletcher trainee who will benefit from that conditioner's ability to get horses to the big race, albeit not yet to win it. I like that the colt won at a mile and a sixteenth as a juvenile in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and it was over the Derby's own Churchill Downs strip. Full sibling Hedge Fund has run 53 times and earned more than $151,000. Since Super Saver is yet to start in 2009, he also needs to come out of the gate in March looking less like a horse coming off a layoff and more like a serious contender, or it might be hard to get him positioned to win on Derby Saturday.

9. Dublin (Afleet Alex-Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird). Colt came up short in the Southwest to Conveyance, but does have credentials. A G1 winner at 2, however, he seems a bit hit-and-miss. Of his five races as a juvenile, he won two and failed to hit the board in the other three. Dam was a G1 winner herself, and produced G2-placed Mike's Classic. So there's some class on the page for this one.

10. American Lion (Tiznow-Storm Tide, by Storm Cat). OK, so another Cal-based runner did sneak into the mix. I like this one because he should be able to race over real dirt, as did sire Tiznow, though the Tiznows are shining on synthetic, as well. Dam's side of the pedigree is far more built for speed than the sire's, but second dam City Band was a G1 winner at a mile and a sixteenth and Tiznow's influence should help this colt stretch a bit beyond that limit.

Now let's see how long they stay in this order -- or even present on the list -- in my mind. I suspect it won't be long.