Evangelical wins sophomore debut, earns converts

Evangelical, a filly I identified as a top prospect from last year's Keeneland April sale, collected her second win from four starts and her first of 2011 on Saturday in a claiming race at Gulfstream Park.

The daughter of Speightstown-Evangelizer, by Saint Ballado had been scratched from a Florida-bred allowance race on April 2 before returning on Saturday and being sent off as the roughly 8/5 second-favorite in a $35,000 claimer. She and Elvis Trujillo made short work of the group, including 6/5 favorite Surmount, taking the lead from the gate and setting fractions of 22.85 and 45.98 on her way to winning by four and a half lengths in a clocking of 1:09.92 for six furlongs. The Equibase chart says Evangelical "drew away while in hand."

Surmount came home second, and both fillies were claimed; Evangelical from North Shore Racing by trainer Joseph C. Catanese III for JMJ Racing Stables LLC, and Surmount from Wildcat Thoroughbred LLC by new trainer and owner Paul Kopaj. I didn't think Evangelical had a prayer of making it through the race unclaimed, so I can only presume that North Shore Racing and trainer Barclay Tagg decided they were ready to part with the filly, who had been a $100,000 RNA at KEEAPR 2010.

OBS April sales-tip Take Me To Zuber, who recently placed second in the OBS Sprint S., fillies division, was fifth in the same race.

If Evangelical isn't nursing an injury, she could be quite an aquisition for JMJ Racing Stables. In four starts, she has two wins and two seconds, completing the exacta twice in maiden special company last year before breaking through with her first win in similar company at Belmont's fall meeting. She has earned $76,830 from four starts, and 1:09.92 "in hand" is a promising return to the track for a filly that, honestly, I had expected to eventually be among the stakes horses from my Sales Tip Class of 2010.

I do have durability concerns for Evangelical, whose winning dam raced just three times, and whose G3-winning second dam made but 10 starts. But I liked her compact, muscular build, and the 10.1 breeze was fast, though perhaps not effortlessly so.

I wrote at the time: "You want to see a horse who is running fast when he looks like he isn't, and from the video, this filly doesn't exactly fit that bill. From the instant I saw the clip, I thought, 'Wow, it looks like she's running fast.' Thankfully, the time agreed that she was."

So did the stopwatch on Saturday. And, if JMJ Racing Stables can keep Evangelical on the straight-and-narrow, future race-day clockings will probably reconfirm the observation.

Follow Evangelical's career, and the other 186 sales-tips of mine, at this link.

Unstoppable Mick splashes to sales tips' 100th win

A 3-year-old gelding that I tabbed as a "steal" of last year's Keeneland April sale, where he was bought for $10,000, sloshed his way to a second career victory Friday night in allowance company at Mountaineer Park.

In the process, Unstoppable Mick scored the 100th victory by my 187-member sales-tip Class of 2010.

Unstoppable Mick broke his maiden for KEEAPR buyer Connie Apostelos by a wide margin of 10 1/4 lengths at Turfway Park on March 18, for a $15,000 tag. The gelding had hit the board in four of five starts to that point, but earned only $9,429 in the process due to Turfway's second-rate purse structure.

He was claimed from that easy, all-weather-track win by trainer Rodney C. Faulkner for new owner Frank Irvin, who wheeled him back 20 days later in allowance company at the West Virginia track not too far away, and for a bigger total purse of $20,200. Twelve days short of his actual third birthday (he was foaled April 20 in Kentucky) and in a nine-horse field that included seven 4-year-olds, Unstoppable Mick was sent off as the roughly 3/2 favorite at Mountaineer Friday. He proved worthy of the bettors' confidence, circling the field five-wide on the turn and slogging home 7 1/2 lengths the best under urging by Ernesto Oro. The win was worth $11,918, bumping Unstoppable Mick's career earnings to $21,347.

The gelding covered six furlongs over a sloppy, sealed track in 1:12.21.

I considered the son of Silver Deputy-Flower Canyon, by Gulch the first of 11 "steals" of Keeneland's April sale a year ago when he sold for $10,000 as Hip 17 on the day. I liked that while the then-colt's page wasn't blotted with black type, his dam was a winner at 2 who had borne five winners from seven prior foals, three of them full siblings to this one who had already won 10 times between them.

Unstoppable Mick nearly lost out on the honors of posting the sales class' 100th win. A couple of hours earlier at Penn National, Bibblesman, who broke his maiden on March 16 at Penn two days before Unstoppable Mick's maiden win, was the beaten favorite at 6/5 odds in an allowance race. Bibblesman was caught at the wire by 4-year-old second-favorite Rascal Flatter, and lost by a neck. I selected the colt by Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat as a potential bargain for a client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May. He sold for $22,000 at Timonium, and now has a win and two seconds from four starts, for $46,660.

Follow all 187 sales picks, and a handful of pans, throughout their careers, at this link.

A pricey bunch of 'average' horses

While selecting 187 juvenile racing prospects from a few of last year's thoroughbred auctions, I also took time to critique the purchase -- or purchase-prices, anyway -- of a handful of horses from two of those sales.

Eight horses made my "surreal" list from Keeneland's April sale, an auction in which I labeled certain other purchases the "steals" of the sale, and recommended a third list of prospects that went unsold as animals which might be purchased privately, or could turn up in a future sale and should be considered at that time. The ninth horse I panned was the lone "de-tip" I made from Ocala's huge April sale of 2-year-olds in training.

So far, my doubts have proved fairly well-placed.

On the whole, the nine horses have as of this date made 21 lifetime starts. And five are already winners, of a combined six races. But class considered, that's almost where the good news ends.

First, let's give credit where it's due to the more promising horses of this group.

Malicia, a chestnut filly by Tapit-Malia, by Regal Classic, was the cheapest of the 10 horses whose purchase prices I criticized, selling for $110,000. And my criticism of buyer Prime Equestrian in this case (but not in other cases, as you'll see) was appropriately muted. I noted that she sold for much less than the average price of a Tapit filly at that point last year ($239,375), which was a good thing, but that her female family's racetrack history was pretty hit-and-miss, and I simply would have balked at paying $110K for her. ... She promptly was sent to France and won twice in as many starts at age 2, earning $35,954. She is yet to race at 3.

And, Akkadian, a strapping dark bay colt by Tiznow who sold as Hip 86 at KEEAPR to Gary S. Broad, has worked like a champ and collected a win and a place from three starts, for $46,560. He looks like he could be a very promising racehorse, though the $270,000 purchase price at the sale could still be a little difficult to earn back. It seemed too much at the time (and perhaps still does) for a colt whose nearest graded stakes-winner on the catalog page was under his fourth dam.

It just gets ugly from there.

The group does boast three more winners, but all could be considered disappointments by their connections. Harsher critics would call them busts.

Hip 120 at KEEAPR was a horse from the "surreal" list that actually didn't sell. I was surprised that $340,000 was offered for a colt -- later named Isaac Newton -- whose equal I thought could be purchased for a small fraction of the price. But I was simply aghast that the seller, McKathan Bros., agent, didn't take it. ... On March 2 this year, in his second career start, the Bernstein colt broke maiden by a half-length at Gulfstream. For a $35,000 tag. And went unclaimed. He has earned $11,572.

Three lots later, at Hip 123, Padua Stables signed the $350,000 ticket for a colt later named Jaeger, sired by Indian Charlie and out of the Valid Wager mare, The Church Lady. He was fleet, with a 10-flat eighth. And his page had plenty of winners. But those winners and most stakes performers were largely at second-tier Canadian tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park (i.e., not top-notch Woodbine). The price seemed far too high for a horse . And, it has proven to be so. On March 5 at Laurel Park, Jaeger broke maiden among special weights in his fourth lifetime start. Exactly three weeks later, he was sixth beaten 11 3/4 in a $40K optional-claimer in which he wasn't risked for the tag. Jaeger has earned-back $28,420 of that $350,000 ticket. And that can't be what Padua Stables had hoped.

And, the fifth winner is Malibu Star, who has earned six figures already while racing in Japan. How can that be disappointing? ... Well, because buyer Katsumi Yoshida paid the second-highest price of the Keeneland April sale for this Malibu Moon colt, a cool $575,000. So a win and two unplaced efforts from three starts, earning $100,170 in the Land of the Rising Purse (where third-rate horses can be six-digit earners), has to be less than Mr. Yoshida had expected.

While it's true that plenty of time remains for any of those horses to elevate their stock dramatically -- it's just early April of their 3-year-old seasons -- the remaining four have to look like even worse investments.

Prime Equestrian dropped $310,000 apiece at KEEAPR for a Birdstone colt later named Prime Opportunist and a Rockport Harbor colt who became known as Billy Smart. That $620,000 investment and training bills since have resulted in four starts and $940 banked between the two, although I suspect both will eventually win. At some level.

"Mr. & Mrs. Moss & Diamond Pride" plunked down $200,000 for a Bernstein filly who breezed well at KEEAPR and who has a little bit of family. But I was skeptical of her chances in part because I think her sire is somewhat overrated. The filly now named J T Safe at Home has yet to make a start.

And in my lone Ocala April "pan," a High Fly filly later named Frothy Market set the under-tack show ablaze with a 9 3/5 clocking for an eighth-mile. I knew that would grossly inflate her value, far above and beyond the worth of a filly who is by a sire that so far has done virtually nothing, and out of a dam who had only raced once. She ran a fairly dull race on dirt for Klaravich Stables and W.H. Lawrence, and while she perked up a bit when given a turf try recently, Frothy Market is unplaced from two starts for $1,996.

So, about a year into their collective careers, my nine criticized juveniles of 2010 managed to cost (or RNA for) a combined $2.64 million, and have earned back $225,612, most of that by three horses.

And while I might yet be proven wrong by a horse or two, on the whole, it appears this group is just as average as I thought they'd be, despite high prices that are anything but.

Follow these nine -- and the 187 horses I did like, who were almost universally cheaper and as a group are doing undeniably better -- at this link.

Catching up: 22 new maiden-breakers so far in '11

My transition from North Carolina to life in Oklahoma in the beginning months of 2011 has interrupted this blog's progress more than I ever intended, but it's high time to start catching up.

First on the agenda: An update on 22 new winners thus far in 2011 from my juvenile sales tips of 2010, each briefly mentioned here in chronological order:

-- Reward The Lady (f. by Grand Reward-You're A Lady, by Youmadeyourpoint), Jan. 8, Parx Racing, MCL $12,500 by a half-length. I had this one as placed twice at age 2, and still have the e-mail notifications from Equibase to support that, but a Brisnet search now says she was placed just once, so she must have been disqualified from one of those runner-up efforts after the fact. Either way, she broke maiden and has earned $24,920 off a $6,000 purchase price at EASMAY, where I considered her a Priority 4 and we let her pass as Hip 1 in the entire sale.

-- Diannedoesthebooks (g. by Desert Warrior-Karakorum Kiss, by Lord Carson), Jan. 9, Aqueduct, MCL $50,000 by a length and a half. A first-out winner who was a $25,000 purchase as Hip 1200 at OBS April. A bit disconcerting that he hasn't raced since, though he has worked seven times, most recently April 3 at Belmont. Hopefully connections are just waiting for some juicy NY-bred conditions at the upcoming Belmont meet.

-- Take Me To Zuber (f. by Toccet-Valid Silk, by Valid Appeal), Jan. 20, Gulfstream Park, MCL $25,000 by 4 1/2 lengths. I pegged her at OBS April, where she sold for $28,000 as Hip 629. On March 14, she placed second in the OBS Sprint Stakes at Ocala Training Center, a restricted race open to 3-year-olds that at some point in their young lives have passed through a sales ring at Ocala Breeders' Sales Co.

-- Oh So Glittery (f. by Cetewayo-Western Glitter, by Glitterman), Jan. 25, Parx Racing, MCL $25,000 by a head. I liked this tall filly and tabbed her a Priority 2 horse at EASMAY last year, where I worked as a hired bloodstock agent for the first time. She was an RNA at $15,000, but now has earned $23,490 from five starts, including paychecks for three straight fourth-place finishes in allowance company since her maiden-breaking win. Not bad for being raced short on dirt as the daughter of a distance-running turf horse in Cetewayo, who had at least five graded wins on grass at 11f and beyond. I'd like to see her get some chances on the all-weather surface this season among PA-breds at Presque.

-- The Fed Eased (c. by Montbrook-Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out), Jan. 29, Aqueduct, MSW by 7 1/4 lengths. I recommended this colt prior to his passing through the ring at OBSFEB, where he was a $65,000 RNA. He won in his second start, then made his third Grade 3 Gotham S., in which he finished fifth, beaten 5 1/2, by Stay Thirsty. From three starts, he has a win and a place for $41,000.

-- Sniper King (c. by First Samurai-Gem Treck, by Java Gold), Jan. 30, Busan in South Korea, by 6 lengths. Colt who was an $18,000 purchase as Hip 1080 at OBSAPR has earned $35,203 from six starts in Korea, where a number of my bargain-hunting sales tips have performed quite well.

-- Wild Alley Cat (c. by Flower Alley-Winner's Ticket, by Jolie's Halo), Jan. 30, Turf Paradise, MCL $18K-$25K, by 7 lengths. Won easily at first asking when entered for $20,000 in a field of maiden-claimers. Since has been fifth and sixth in allowance company at Delta Downs after being sent to Louisiana. I labeled him a Priority 2 horse at EASMAY, where he sold for just $6,000. His win didn't earn much at Turf Paradise, where the purses aren't that generous, and he has banked just $5,670, but perhaps when dropped back in among friends he'll collect another win or two.

-- Black Tulip (f. by Rock Hard Ten-Fascinating Gal, by Theatrical), Feb. 2, Tampa Bay Downs, turf MCL $32,000 by 2 lengths. I considered her a possible second-chance deal (a horse you might see at auction later) after she failed to sell at a $50,000 bid at Keeneland April. She has a win and two other on-the-board finishes from seven starts, for $13,232, but I think has and will find a home on grass.

-- Kuhlu (f. by Ghostzapper-Golden Antigua, by Hansel), Feb. 6, Turfway Park, all-weather MCL $30,000 by 3 lengths. I considered her a possible second-chance deal from 2010 Keeneland April when she failed for sell at a bid of $22,000. She was sixth of seven in an optional claimer today at Hawthorne. Kuhlu has earned $7,330 from four starts.

-- Wrapped In Gold (f. by Touch Gold-Miss Ginalie, by Skip Away), Feb. 12, Hawthorne, MCL $7,500 by a length. I tabbed her at OBS April, where she sold for just $10,000. She has made seven starts with another third-place finish among them for $7,836.

-- Willie's Way (g. by Speightstown-Willie's Luv, by Williamstown), Feb. 16, Tampa Bay Downs, MCL $8,000, by 2 1/2 lengths. I've privately questioned the handling of this fellow, by a champion dirt sprinter and raced a number of times in his 13 lifetime starts around two turns and on turf. His dam did handle both a mile and grass, so I suppose the connections (and he's been through more than one barn) were hopeful. But short and on the dirt is where he belongs. I recommended him at OBS April, where he was an RNA for $12,000. He's now collected a win, three places and two show finishes for $15,551.

-- Lion's Reign (c. by Lion Heart-Turtle Creek, by Sky Classic), Feb. 27, Turfway Park, all-weather MSW by 3 lengths. I tabbed this one among my "steals" of the Keeneland April sale after he sold for $17,000. With an unplaced finish over an off-track as the favorite in a Mountaineer allowance today, he has a win and a place from five starts for $17,387.

-- Doasisay Notasisay (c. Delaware Township-Bonjove, by Caracolero), March 2, Parx Racing, MCL $25,000 by 4 1/4 lengths. I liked this fella rather a lot out of the OBS April catalog, where he was an RNA at just $19,000. He was second twice from four starts at 2, and is yet to finish worse than second in four starts at 3, including a runner-up finish to a heavy favorite today in a Parx starter allowance where this fella was sent off at 20/1. He has now earned $52,770 from eight starts for breeder Norman E. Casse, who might actually be glad by now that the colt didn't sell at Ocala.

-- Alstom (c. by Silver Train-Miss Special Salsa, by Mr. Greeley), March 5, Oaklawn Park, MSW by a half-length. This bargain-basement, $7,000 purchase was a Priority 2 horse on my list for a client at EASMAY. He won at first asking at a nice meeting, then proved the effort was no fluke on March 31 when he missed the break but came on, well, like a train down the lane to finish third beaten only three-quarters of a length in a one-mile allowance at Oaklawn, in a race where half the field were 4-year-olds.

-- Secondtimelove (f. by Trippi-Backtothebooks, by Notebook), March 10, Charles Town, MSW by 2 lengths. This $25,000 filly made my list at OBS April, where she was Hip 779. She didn't start at 2, but has a win, place and show from five starts at 3, for $24,700.

-- Knows How To Rock (c. by Rockport Harbor-Unchained Princess, by Clever Trick), March 14, Mountaineer Park, MSW by a neck. A Keeneland April steal at $13,000, he was unplaced in three starts at 2, but is 3-for-6 on the board at age 3. He has earned $16,509.

-- Simple Truth (f. by Tale of the Cat-Summertown, by Diesis), March 14, Turf Paradise, MCL $18,000, by 4 lengths. This one sold for a bit more than I expected at OBS April, where she went for $45,000 at a sale where I was hoping to peg almost nothing but bargains. She has earned $6,560 and has a long way to go toward repaying that purchase price.

-- Bibblesman (c. by Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat), March 16, Parx Racing, MCL $40,000 by 4 3/4 lengths. This colt was a $22,000 purchase as Hip 337 at EASMAY, where I liked several of the foals by this sire, and where he made my list of 48 likely bargains for my one client as a hired bloodstock agent as a Priority 1 horse. He was unplaced in one start at 2, but has hit the board in both of his efforts at 3, having earned $40,260. Very easily could win again (and again?) among his PA-bred brethren.

-- No Biggie (g. by Consolidator-Sixy Chic, by Saratoga Six), March 17, Laurel Park, MCL $25,000 by 4 lengths. I tabbed this one as a "Priority 1" when tasked by a client to seek out the least expensive horses that still had promise among the offerings at last May's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale at Timonium, Md. I liked him in most every way, and I believe his price was held down by his height. I later wrote, "had the horse been two or three inches higher at the withers and not a degree straighter nor tick faster, the money would have been two or three times greater, I'm sure." As it was, he sold for a paltry $8,000 and now has earned $21,060, including a third place at 14/1 on Tuesday in the same Parx starter allowance (won by a 3/5 shot) in which sales-tip Doasisay Notasisay was second at 20/1.

-- Unstoppable Mick (g. by Silver Deputy-Flower Canyon, by Gulch), March 18, Turfway Park, MCL $15K-$10K by 10 1/4 lengths. I called this one a "steal" when he sold for $10,000 at KEEAPR to Connie Apostelos. New trainer Rodney C. Faulkner "stole" him for new owner Frank D. Irvin for $15,000 when Unstoppable Mick aired in this Turfway maiden-claimer as the prohibitive, 1/5 favorite. He has hit the board in four of five starts for $9,429 running at low-purse Turfway.

-- Silver Jo (f. by Silver Train-Bolsa, by Mr. Prospector), April 1, Oaklawn Park, MCL $15,000 by 3 1/4 lengths. This filly won as the heavy favorite in her third lifetime start. I recommended her in my search for bargains at OBS April, where she was purchased for $12,000. She has earned $11,670 and certainly might move forward.

-- Triple Great (f. by Greatness-Triple Top, by Topsider), today, April 5, Penn National, MCL $5,000 by 8 lengths. I picked this one at OBS April, where she was an RNA for $18,000. After placing three times in six starts, I was surprised that she went unclaimed from owners Robert Falcone and John J. Lee. The filly has now earned $14,836.

Thus, through racing of April 5, 2011, it would appear that my 187-member sales-tip class of 2010 has 140 starters (74.9 percent) and 70 winners worldwide (37.4 percent). The group has seven stakes winners and 10 other stakes-placers (nine blacktype) for 3.7 percent stakes winners and about 9 percent total stakes horses.

The group has won 99 times from 684 starts (14.5 percent) with 119 second-place finishes and another 78 thirds (31.9 percent in the exacta, 43.3 percent in the money). Total earnings have reached $4,341,616 for an average of $31,012 per starter and $6,347 per start.

Follow them all at this link.

Tips of 2010 collect 2 wins in 2011 OBS sales stakes

This is my first blog post of 2011, for which I must apologize -- both to those who had mentioned missing my writing, and to those who are now disappointed that I wasn't gone for good. But I do have news worth mentioning from my Sales Tip Class of 2010, even though I'm belated in reporting it.

On March 14 at Ocala Training Center, two of the four restricted stakes for 3-year-olds who had gone through the sales at Ocala, were won by horses I topped at the OBS sales of last year. And they were the "big" races, too, the $100,000 OBS Championship Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth, for both the male and female divisions. A third sales tip of mine managed to place second in the filly division of the $50,000 OBS Sprint Stakes, and a fourth selection made her debut in that same race, albeit last of six.

It's hard to take much credit for DELIGHTFUL MARY, who collected her first stakes victory in the OBS Championship Stakes filly division, defeating Be My Candy by just three-quarters of a length. The Limehouse filly was the $500,000 sales-topper at OBS April; everybody recognized her talent. Still, it's good when one of the (few) expensive ones I pick, does pan out, and so far this filly has. As a 2-year-old she had two wins from four starts, with a second place in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S.-G3 at Woodbine and a solid third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 at Churchill in November. Delightful Mary has now earned back $370,377 of that $500,000 purchase price for owner John C. Oxley.

On the other hand, I obviously didn't have much company among the sales-day fans for REPRIZED HALO, the OBS Championship Stakes winner who sold for just $23,000 at that same OBS April auction. Yet he's been undeniably a steal of that sale. The sturdy bay colt bred by Debra and Bill Backlinie in Florida has already raced 13 times in his career. Shortly after (finally) breaking his maiden, Reprized Halo handed GOURMET DINNER (another OBS tip of mine) his first defeat in four starts last year by annexing the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at a whopping price of 46/1. Reprized Halo now has a 3-1-1 mark from those 13 starts, for $316,579 in earnings -- a pretty good return on that $23,000 investment by Roger Urbina.

Another relatively inexpensive choice of mine out of the OBS sales also hit the board on stakes-day this year. Take Me To Zuber, who had a win and a show from three prior starts, finished second behind One Star (and by a head over Wild Penny) in the filly division of the OBS Sprint Stakes. Take Me To Zuber was a $28,000 purchase at OBS April by owner/trainer Luis Oliveras, and now she's stakes-placed, with $26,260 banked.

Making her debut in that same OBS Sprint filly division was Prize Doll, a $17,000 RNA at OBS April. She was last throughout, but was six lengths back at first call and only finished beaten 4 1/4 lengths, which probably isn't a bad effort for an unraced filly tossed in a stakes race among more seasoned competitors. She finished only a nose and a neck out of fourth.

Granted, these races are restricted stakes -- open only to those 3-year-olds who at some point have already gone through the sales ring at Ocala. And the very best from those sales (Delightful Mary excepted, as connections apparently looked for a soft spot to make her 2011 return) typically bypass the sales stakes for bigger races.

But with more than 2,100 juveniles catalogued at OBS sales last year and another 1,100 or so from this crop going through the ring there as yearlings, that still leaves a huge pool of potential entries from which to draw. Of those couple-three-thousand 3-year-olds, I recommended 113 -- or fewer than 4 percent. And from that 3-plus percent came half of the OBS sales stakes winners, plus a second-place finisher.

That doesn't seem to shabby, if I do (belatedly) say so myself.

In the meantime, I'm still settling into Oklahoma after moving from North Carolina. When I do get fully settled, this blog will resume full-time, as will its following of those juvenile tips from 2010.