No great shock: Surprise Strike wins at 7/5 odds

It took him seven starts to break through to the winner's circle, but Surprise Strike has now had his picture snapped after two races in a row after winning handily Saturday in allowance company at Finger Lakes.

The Jeremiah Englehart trainee nearly broke his maiden at first asking last year at Presque Isle Downs, then was sent to Woodbine and Saratoga several times before winning his last out back among maiden special weight company at PID. On Saturday, he covered six furlongs in 1:11.34 under the guidance of Wilfredo Rohena to win by an easy 5 3/4 lengths over 6/5 favorite Il Vagabondo in a non-winners of two lifetime test at Finger Lakes. It was another 6 1/4 back to third-place Suave Fox.

Surprise Strike was bred in Kentucky by Duzee Stable. He has now earned $68,029 for owner Orlando Dirienzo from eight lifetime starts.

I shortlisted the bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Unbridled Femme, by Unbridled, as a Priority 2 prospect for a client seeking a bargain runner out of the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md. The horse failed to sell at a top bid of $34,000 as Hip 380, but he has the look of one that's worth having.

Click here to see all 187 of my 2010 sales selections.

Not much of a surprise, but he finally strikes

A year and six days after nearly posting a shocking upset in his debut effort at 2, Surprise Strike returned for the third time to Presque Isle Downs and finally broke through for his first lifetime win, this time as the favorite.

Surprise Strike becomes the 106th winner from 187 juveniles I selected on this blog from various auctions in 2010.

On Sept. 10, 2010, the bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Unbridled Femme, by Unbridled, was sent off at 20/1 in maiden special weight company at Presque. Running sixth early, rider Scott Spieth sneaked the horse through on the rail and he rallied to within a half-length of defeating 3/1 second-choice Goodtimehadbyall (who has now earned nearly $158,000).

It was a promising, second-place debut. So promising that Surprise Strike's connections, owner Orlando Dirienzo and trainer Jeremiah Englehart, aimed higher. The horse was sent to Woodbine for his next two starts, where he finished second in a Polytrack route to Bluegrass Dreamer, then fifth in his last effort at 2.

Shelved for the winter, Surprise Strike returned to Presque Isle for his 3-year-old debut on June 29, and was reunited with Spieth. He finished second that day to Phipps Stable's Surreptitiously. Then, it was off to Saratoga, for a pair of unplaced efforts in tough maiden special company on grass.

Back at the scene of his nearest successes, but without his partnership with Spieth renewed (rather, with Paul Nicol Jr. in the irons), Surprise Strike overcame an awkward break to dispose of a maiden special weight field at Presque Isle on Friday evening. He came home a confident two lengths in front at about even money. Spieth came home second aboard Alfarooq.

Surprise Strike was bred in Kentucky by Duzee Stable. He now has a win and three seconds from seven lifetime starts in Dirienzo's colors, for $57,949.

I shortlisted Surprise Strike as a Priority 2 horse on a 48-horse shortlist of prospects for a bargain-minded client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale. While bidding for the horse went higher than we came to spend (a $34,000 RNA), that bid was still more than $10,000 below the sales average.

The horse breezed 23 flat over a slow Timonium track at the Maryland sale, and according to consignor True South LLC he did it after being medicated for throat swelling due to a possible snakebite. His dam was a stakes-winner; his second dam a G3-placer who was by Deputy Minister. And considering my first impression of the front end of the horse as they led him from his stall into the daylight was "Holy ..." I was a bit surprised he didn't bring more than that $34,000 bid in the ring as Hip 380, which wasn't enough to buy him.

Ultimately, I decided Surprise Strike's hindquarters weren't as impressive as his shoulder, neck and chest, but not so much that I wouldn't have wanted him. His pastern angle was good, albeit perhaps just a tad longer than I'd prefer. He looks splendid at speed, though, especially when finishing in front.

With 106 winners, 56.7 percent of my 187 selections now have broken maiden. He is the 25th winner from that 48-horse EASMAY shortlist (52.1 percent), which isn't too bad considering the horses I selected were sold or were RNAs for an average bid that was less than half the sale average. That group happens to include four stakes-placers, bought for an average of $29,000.

I need to update the full records and earnings at home, but I believe the 187-member class has now equaled in earnings -- or nearly so -- the roughly $6.44 million bid on them at the sales. Earnings from the EASMAY class exceeded the approximately $1.13 million bid on them some weeks ago.

Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections, plus a handful of horses I went against.

Hard Rock Candy finally tastes sweet victory

For eight consecutive starts, Hard Rock Candy had been a hard luck racehorse.

Eight times the filly from my 2010 sales-tip list went to post. Five times, including her first four straight, she came home in second place, and once she missed second by a neck.

• June 19, 2010, Calder Race Course, by a length to Greatest Dream, who since has made five stakes starts with a best finish of fourth in the Tropical Park Oaks.
• Aug. 1, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by a half-length to future allowance winner Parvenu.
• Aug. 29, 2010, Monmouth Park, by 7 1/4 lengths to After Later, who would contest the G1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont in her next out.
• Sept. 18, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by 3 1/2 to Floating Dream.
• May 31, 2011, Parx Racing, third by 4 to fellow Fugue sales-selection Circumstance, a neck out of second behind race-favorite Deflate the Bubble.
• Aug. 1, 2011, Parx Racing, by 1 1/4 to another of my sales selections, Shipwreck Cove.

On Monday, it finally was Hard Rock Candy's turn.

Sent off as the prohibitive favorite among a field of $40K-$35K maiden-claimers at Parx, Hard Rock Candy and Kendrick Carmouche stalked the early leaders through opening fractions of 22.57 and 45.57, then surged in the stretch to gradually draw clear and win the race by a length and a quarter over Lyle's Angel. Final time for 6.5 furlongs over a fast strip was a brisk 1:16.18.

Hard Rock Candy was bred in Florida by Brent Fernung and Crystal Fernung. She is owned by Barbara Armstrong and Gavin-Ty Racing LLC, and trained by Richard Vega.

I tabbed the chestnut daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, among my top prospects prior to her failing to sell at a high bid of just $32,000 as Hip 940 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. Though it has taken her awhile to break maiden, the clocking of her win on Monday suggests the filly has the ability to move forward from this victory.

A similar move forward has been made by sales-tip Admitit ($20,000 OBSAPR Hip 1046), who took 10 tries to break maiden at Woodbine, with five places and three shows in her first nine starts, but now has won three straight and earned $121,750 from 12 lifetime starts.

Neither of those two quite hold the record for seconditis among the sales-tips. That honor goes to Mugsy Dehere ($40,000 EASMAY Hip 323) who is 7-for-9 finishing second in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. He's earned $35,880 without winning, but hasn't run since May 14 nor worked in the last 60 days, so I'm left crossing my fingers he'll make a comeback.

Others who keep knocking on a door that's yet to open include:

• Rockin Harbor ($35K RNA, KEEAPR Hip 36), 0-3-1 from seven starts for $18,000, back on the work tab at Santa Anita.
• Elusive Land ($25K RNA, ADSSPR Hip 11), 0-3-0 from three maiden special weight starts at Woodbine for $34,881.
• Heir to Dare ($62K RNA, OBSAPR Hip 934), 0-3-0 from three starts in Florida, $26,241.
• Surprise Strike ($34K RNA, EASMAY Hip 380), 0-3-0 from six starts at Presque Isle, Woodbine and Saratoga, $29,749.
• After Words ($30K RNA, EASMAY Hip 281), 0-2-1 from four starts in the Mid-Atlantic, $15,110, in Tuesday at Parx.

Including Mugsy Dehere, that's 21 seconds from 32 starts for those six.

Regardless, Hard Rock Candy becomes the 103rd maiden-breaker among the 187 prospects I selected from various 2-year-old sales last year. That's 55 percent of all selections and 66.5 percent of the 155 to have made at least one start.

Click here to see the statistics on all 187 selections, plus nine horses whose high prices I criticized.

Sales-tip Shipwreck Cove latest to break maiden, and to deny hard-luck Hard Rock Candy

Someday, I have to believe, Hard Rock Candy is going to win a race.

Just when I thought that might be today -- and so did bettors, sending her off as the favorite at nearly even money in a 5.5-furlong test at Parx Racing in Philadelphia -- one of her fellow "sales tips" of 2010 stepped up to deny her on a day when nobody else could.

Shipwreck Cove, previously 0-for-2 in a pair of starts at Monmouth Park, appeared for the first time at Parx on Monday and cleared her maiden hurdle in sharp, front-running style beneath jockey Erilius Vaz. She ran a blistering first quarter in 21.85, set a split of 45.05 for the half and finished the race in 1:04 flat. Hard Rock Candy, who had to be steadied at the sixteenth-pole by Kendrick Carmouche, settled for second -- again, for the fifth time in eight starts.

The race was for maidens carrying a $40,000 claiming tag. It was also at least the fifth time in about 13 months of following my 187-horse list of sales tips that two of "my" horses ran in the same race, and finished in the exacta. This time it was worth $38.40 for $2.

Both fillies were sales recommendations of mine on this blog from various juvenile auctions of 2010. Shipwreck Cove, a gray or roan daughter of Stormy Atlantic-Coquettish, by Not For Love, sold for just $18,000 as Hip 895 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. Hard Rock Candy, a chestnut, Florida-bred daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, failed to sell at that same auction as Hip 940 when the $32,000 top offer for her did not meet her consignor's reserve price.

Shipwreck Cove was bred in Kentucky by Susan Shipp and Cynthia Polk. She is owned by Rayzin The Bar Stables and Hilltop Winners Circle Stables. Her trainer is Michael Lerman. The filly has now earned $22,070 from three starts. I touted her not only off a good 10.1 breeze at the sale, but because her stakes-winning dam (who was half to two other stakes winners) had already produced a stakes-placer Taking a Chance (by Stephen Got Even, now four wins, 2nd Tippet S. at 2, $103,834) and an older brother who was a first-out winner on turf in Roguish (Arch).

Her connections would be wise not to ignore the turf proclivities of this family. Her half-sister was stakes-placed on turf, her half-brother a grass winner, her dam (while a stakes winner on dirt) was stakes-placed once on grass, and her dam's half-sister MISS LOMBARDI won the Maryland Million Ladies' S. at a mile and an eighth on turf. Since this filly's sire Stormy Atlantic can certainly get a grass horse, it could be worth sending Shipwreck Cove to the turf course sooner rather than later.

As for Hard Rock Candy, she's earned $61,340 from five places and a show in eight starts. And, she's hardly the only hard-luck maiden among my 187-horse list of prospects from last season

Mugsy Dehere has finished second seven times from nine starts, all in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. Elusive Land didn't debut until age 3, and has finished second in all three of her starts at Woodbine, on grass and on Polytrack. Another Wildcat Heir filly from my list, Heir to Dare, is 3-for-3 second-place, all among maiden special weights this winter and spring at Gulfstream Park. Surprise Strike is 3-for-5 finishing in second place, with a recent sixth in a blanket finish at Saratoga in which the margins between the first six places were head-neck-half-neck-neck.

I'd even argue that a fellow banished to Assiniboia Downs, Rain Dance, is a hard-luck maiden. He's 6-for-11 finishing third (never even second), and I'm afraid won't win a race until he gets a rider who understands that the shortest way around the track is on the rail. On Monday, the horse rated patiently and saved ground in maiden-claiming company and the rail opened up for him like Moses parting the Red Sea, but he'd already been taken widest of all (five-wide, per the chart, I'd say six) on the turn for home. Rain Dance ultimately lost by 2 3/4 lengths to Gimmea Can Do It and Regina Sealock, who led gate-to-wire and thus had an inside trip, and missed by a length to second-place-throughout Molinaro Irishline and Krista Carignan; a fairly close third despite Rain Dance's running perhaps 30 to 40 feet further than either of those horses by the finish. In his previous two races Rain Dance was six-wide and seven-wide on the turn for home.

The more I follow racing, the more I realize and appreciate (and wager upon) the rare combination of skill and courage it takes to skim the fence like Calvin Borel.

That frustration side, the aforementioned Shipwreck Cove hereby becomes maiden-breaker No. 95 from my 187-horse list of sales recommendations; that's 50.8 percent. The class has one more chance tonight as the ultra-cheap ($3,000 at OBSAPR) Bernardus goes forth in maiden-claiming company within the hour at Mountaineer Park.

Click here to see them all, complete with updated statistics.

WinStar's Woodbine whipping boys

Those sons of Bluegrass Cat are doing right well at Woodbine lately.

Good for my slipping entry in the Thoroughbred Times Freshman Sires contest, in which I tabbed Bluegrass Cat to be a success with this, his first crop.

Not so good for my 2010 juvenile sales tips.

On Monday, that sales-tip Class of 2010 suffered its second straight day with a runner-up finish at Canada's premier track to a son of first-year sire Bluegrass Cat. Placing second for the second time in as many lifetime tries was Surprise Strike -- a Stormy Atlantic colt I recommended to a client (who bought a different horse) at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He was beaten by Bluegrass Dreamer, but held on gamely to save second over Energized.

On Sunday, Rockin Heat (now 4-for-4 lifetime at finishing second, including Grade 3 races on turf and Polytrack) was beaten a half-length by Blue Laser in a four-horse blanket finish in the Grey S.-G3. It was the second time Blue Laser has beaten Rockin Heat, as my Rock Hard Ten-sired sales-tip was second a length to the Bluegrass Cat progeny in a Woodbine maiden special weight back in August.

Both Bluegrass Dreamer and Blue Laser are bred and owned by WinStar Farm, which stands their sire and also campaigns this year's Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver.

Surprise Strike has now earned $18,273 from two starts. He is owned and trained by Jeremiah C. Englehart, who acquired him after the colt failed to sell at EASMAY, bringing a bid of $34,000 that resulted in an RNA. (That's "Reserve Not Attained," for those who, Google tells me, are occasionally coming to this blog trying to figure out what those initials mean).

While I'll have to keep waiting for Rockin Heat and Surprise Strike to break their maidens, it's hard to consider these results too disappointing.

After all, when the prospects you recommend at the sales are frequently finishing second at a top North American venue, behind only WinStar Farm homebreds, that's probably a sign you were "on" the right kind of horse.

Follow the entire, 187-member sales-tip Class of 2010 at this link.