Hard Rock Candy finally tastes sweet victory

For eight consecutive starts, Hard Rock Candy had been a hard luck racehorse.

Eight times the filly from my 2010 sales-tip list went to post. Five times, including her first four straight, she came home in second place, and once she missed second by a neck.

• June 19, 2010, Calder Race Course, by a length to Greatest Dream, who since has made five stakes starts with a best finish of fourth in the Tropical Park Oaks.
• Aug. 1, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by a half-length to future allowance winner Parvenu.
• Aug. 29, 2010, Monmouth Park, by 7 1/4 lengths to After Later, who would contest the G1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont in her next out.
• Sept. 18, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by 3 1/2 to Floating Dream.
• May 31, 2011, Parx Racing, third by 4 to fellow Fugue sales-selection Circumstance, a neck out of second behind race-favorite Deflate the Bubble.
• Aug. 1, 2011, Parx Racing, by 1 1/4 to another of my sales selections, Shipwreck Cove.

On Monday, it finally was Hard Rock Candy's turn.

Sent off as the prohibitive favorite among a field of $40K-$35K maiden-claimers at Parx, Hard Rock Candy and Kendrick Carmouche stalked the early leaders through opening fractions of 22.57 and 45.57, then surged in the stretch to gradually draw clear and win the race by a length and a quarter over Lyle's Angel. Final time for 6.5 furlongs over a fast strip was a brisk 1:16.18.

Hard Rock Candy was bred in Florida by Brent Fernung and Crystal Fernung. She is owned by Barbara Armstrong and Gavin-Ty Racing LLC, and trained by Richard Vega.

I tabbed the chestnut daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, among my top prospects prior to her failing to sell at a high bid of just $32,000 as Hip 940 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. Though it has taken her awhile to break maiden, the clocking of her win on Monday suggests the filly has the ability to move forward from this victory.

A similar move forward has been made by sales-tip Admitit ($20,000 OBSAPR Hip 1046), who took 10 tries to break maiden at Woodbine, with five places and three shows in her first nine starts, but now has won three straight and earned $121,750 from 12 lifetime starts.

Neither of those two quite hold the record for seconditis among the sales-tips. That honor goes to Mugsy Dehere ($40,000 EASMAY Hip 323) who is 7-for-9 finishing second in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. He's earned $35,880 without winning, but hasn't run since May 14 nor worked in the last 60 days, so I'm left crossing my fingers he'll make a comeback.

Others who keep knocking on a door that's yet to open include:

• Rockin Harbor ($35K RNA, KEEAPR Hip 36), 0-3-1 from seven starts for $18,000, back on the work tab at Santa Anita.
• Elusive Land ($25K RNA, ADSSPR Hip 11), 0-3-0 from three maiden special weight starts at Woodbine for $34,881.
• Heir to Dare ($62K RNA, OBSAPR Hip 934), 0-3-0 from three starts in Florida, $26,241.
• Surprise Strike ($34K RNA, EASMAY Hip 380), 0-3-0 from six starts at Presque Isle, Woodbine and Saratoga, $29,749.
• After Words ($30K RNA, EASMAY Hip 281), 0-2-1 from four starts in the Mid-Atlantic, $15,110, in Tuesday at Parx.

Including Mugsy Dehere, that's 21 seconds from 32 starts for those six.

Regardless, Hard Rock Candy becomes the 103rd maiden-breaker among the 187 prospects I selected from various 2-year-old sales last year. That's 55 percent of all selections and 66.5 percent of the 155 to have made at least one start.

Click here to see the statistics on all 187 selections, plus nine horses whose high prices I criticized.

Circumstance a maiden-breaker by clear margin

Under different circumstances, the filly might have broken maiden as a 2-year-old. As it is, Circumstance cleared that hurdle Tuesday at Parx Racing in Philadelphia, booted home by apprentice Kennel Pellott in her second lifetime start and the first of her 3-year-old season.

Circumstance becomes the 83rd winner from my 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010; that's 44.4 percent. She's now earned $36,900 from two lifetime starts.

Finishing third in the same race and also making her 3-year-old bow was another of my sale selections from last year, Hard Rock Candy, who was 4-for-5 as a runner-up last year at 2. She would have played the bridesmaid again in this race were it not for a late surge by 4/5 favorite Deflate the Bubble, who got up for second by a neck but was still beaten a widening 3 3/4 by Circumstance in 1:10.32 for six furlongs.

Circumstance debuted at Philadelphia Park on Sept. 18 last year, stumbling at the break, being rushed into contention and getting hung wide on the turn, but still hanging on for the show. Second in that race was none other than Hard Rock Candy in a race won by that day's 3/1 favorite, Floating Dream. That race would be Circumstance's only start at 2.

Much like upon my initial recommendation, when I tipped Circumstance as Hip 388 in the 2010 Ocala April sale (from which she was withdrawn before selling), I'll quickly confess that I have soundness concerns for this talented filly. Her sire, 2-year-old champion Vindication, only raced four times in his life. Her dam, Scapegoat (Forty Niner-Old Goat, by Olden Times), was unraced. It instills no newfound confidence that Circumstance only made the single start at 2, has had breaks in her work tab of a month or two here and there, and has been scratched twice at age 3 before finally making her first sophomore start.

Still, I thought (and continue to think) that she'd have been worth a shot at the sale due to some strong female family and what I had expected would be a lower-than-normal price for a talented daughter of short-lived Vindication (a victim of fatal colic at age 8). She had failed to meet reserve at $55,000 as a September Keeneland yearling, and if breeder Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds really wanted to sell her at Ocala last year, I suspect they might have had to settle for something short of a triple-digit price. Either Gaines-Gentry decided not to sell her, or possibly a physical issue came up after her 10.2 breeze at the under-tack show; either way, she was withdrawn from OBSAPR 2010.

The dark bay filly clearly has some get-up-and-go, though, and it's consistent with her female family. Her dam is a half-sister to G2 winner HIGHLAND PARK, listed winner ALL ABOUT STYLE and G3-placed Old Bid. Despite not racing herself, Scapegoat has produced eight winners from 12 prior foals. That band of foals includes stakes winners TRES CORONAS and DESCAPATE and stakes-placed Brocco Bry.

Still, the soundness questions do persist. Circmumstance has two full sisters, a 2005 named Whitefield who never raced and a 2007 named Savemyspotimbeting who debuted a winner in January of her 3-year-old season and has only raced twice since. Descapate (Dehere) raced seven times; maidens Erin's Song (Unbridled's Song) and Fearless Wildcat (Forest Wildcat) just twice and once, respectively. Half-brother Giantscape (Giant's Causeway) broke down in training after winning two of his first three lifetime.

A few siblings have trained on, notably the aforementioned Brocco Bry (Brocco), who finished up with 65 starts. Tres Coronas (Chief's Crown), Ignition (Tale of the Cat), Processor (Forestry) and Subscriber (Deputy Minister) all made between 20 and 37 starts.

But early circumstantial evidence (since I'm not privy to her vet bills) suggest that trainer Ronny Werner might have his hands full in keeping Circumstance sound.

Here's hoping that he does, and that if Circumstance does someday enter the Gaines-Gentry broodmare band -- or anyone else's, for that matter -- she, for the love of Round Table, is bred only to sires who were practically bulletproof.

Follow the progress of Circumstance and the other 186 sales-picks in the list at the end of this prior post.

Seconditis Saturday yields a new stakes horse

It hasn't been the best week and weekend so far for runners from the group of 187 horses I named on this blog as recommendations from this year's East Coast juvenile sales.

It also hasn't been the worst.

At a time when I felt relieved to finally break through Saturday evening for the week's first win with a 2/1 second-favorite at Fairplex, the class still managed to bank more than $100,000 in a day and finished second four times -- including in a Grade 3 stakes race at Woodbine (by a maiden) and, as if to reinforce that second was where we belonged, in a dead-heat at Charles Town.

The new stakes horse, who deserves top billing this week, is Rockin Heat (Hard Rock Ten-Makin Heat, by Makin), who has yet to break his maiden but also has never finished worse than second in three lifetime starts. The colt and rider Eurico Da Silva lodged a bid in the stretch of the Summer S.-G3 at Woodbine, but couldn't outfinish Garrett Gomez and Pluck, who won the roughly quarter-million-dollar race by a length as the 5/2 favorite. Rockin Heat was sent off at more than 10/1, but finished two and a quarter lengths ahead of 3/1 shot Stormy Rush.

Rockin Heat is trained by Reade Baker for owners Bear Stables Ltd. He banked $48,480 in American currency (an even $50K Canadian) has now earned $70,400 without winning a race.

I recommended Rockin Heat at the OBS April sale, where he sold for $85,000 as Hip 97.

"Hard to believe you'll get much of a deal on this Kentucky-bred," I wrote, though the horse did end up selling for a bit less than the sale average.

I'm a fan of the early work at stud by his sire, Rock Hard Ten, and dam Makin Heat was a stakes winner at Laurel and Delaware Park. She's already produced winners, second dam Warmedbythesun (by Lobsang) won 15 times from ages 2 to 8, and third dam Tongario (Grey Dawn II) bore nine winners, including foals who claimed 17, 10, 10 and eight victories. The colt made his own case by looking the part, and breezing a 21.3 quarter despite being by a classic distance-type sire, whom he seems to take after by having a bit of size.

One would have to think Rock Heat will break his maiden soon; after all, on Saturday he was but a length back of winning his way into the Breeders' Cup.

After picking up a second place finish on Friday at Camarero in Puerto Rico, where dual-winner Hold Still was defeated in an allowance by a stakes-placed filly whom she had beaten last out, Saturday's racing started with three straight place-finishes, as well, capped by Rockin Heat.

The sales tips made up one-fourth of a 12-horse field drawn into a whopping $90,000 maiden special weight race on Owners' Day at Parx Racing (blech, Philadelphia Park). And, two of them came through, though not quite enough to win.

Hard Rock Candy made it 4-for-4 second-place finishes by getting by and holding off debuting sales-tip Circumstance in deep stretch for a big chunk of change. Hard Rock Candy -- who just has to break through sooner or later -- has earned $47,140 without winning a race, after failing to meet her reserve with but a $32,000 top bid at OBSAPR, where she was Hip 940. Circumstance was also to have gone through the ring as Hip 388 at OBSAPR, but was withdrawn.

Also in that race was firster One Punch Knockout, yet another OBSAPR horse ($70,000 as Hip 89) who never seemed to be all that involved, mentally or physically, from the outset.

A bit later in the afternoon, some 90 minutes before Rockin Heat raced, There Goes Molly got into a turf-mile, statebred maiden special weight at Belmont off the also-eligible list. She'd shown little in two tries at Saratoga and was sent of at 59.5/1. Well, surprise, surprise. Molly closed from deep to get up for a clear second under Abel Lezcano, finishing with "good energy" though still beaten more than eight lengths by runaway winner Hessonite. There Goes Molly, who failed to sell at a $6,000 top bid at EASMAY, earned $9,360 for the start.

After a couple of disappointing finishes, including by an Aragorn firster perhaps undone by having an Arlington turf race washed onto the main track, the last place-finisher came in the form of debuting Mugsy Dehere in the fourth race Saturday evening at Charles Town. Sent off at 8/1, he and 14/1 Southern Will could not be separated at the wire and dead-heated for "place" behind far-gone winner C V Eis, who aired by seven lengths.

The class picked up its first winner of the week -- and another repeater -- about 20 minutes after Mugsy Dehere finished deadlocked for second at Charles Town. Gibson Home Run, a debut winner at Del Mar, won for the second time in three starts, this time at Fairplex, where he was sent off second-favored at 2/1 in a $40,000 starter allowance. He cornered like he was on rails and posted a time just a shade over 1:12 for six furlongs; decent considering that at FPX, he has to make two turns instead of one.

Gibson Home Run (Gibson County-Tanja, by Allen's Prospect) was bred in Florida by McKathan Bros., and sold for $30,000 as Hip 546 at OBSAPR. He is trained by Peter Miller for owners Gary Barber, Roger Birnbaum and Kevin Tsujihara, and was ridden by Fairplex's all-time leader, Martin Pedroza.

I tabbed him after his scalding 9 4/5 drill caught my eye and I realized that while his multiple stakes-winning dam has never really reproduced herself, she does have six winners from eight prior foals. He's justified my confidence thus far, and has earned back $26,960 of his purchase price.

Saturday night saw two more stakes-starters, but recent maiden-breaker Sultry Gibson could only pull off winning the photo for fourth in the $100,000 Miss Shenandoah Stakes at Charles Town (won by the dazzling Twelve Pack Shelly) and, despite being non-blacktype stakes-placed already, Blue 'em Away found himself short in Canada, getting beat a neck for fourth in the Winnipeg Futurity. Neither of those finishes was enough, of course, to score catalog blacktype for the horse in question. Each now has made an impressive six starts so far as a juvenile.

Including Hold Still's placing at Camarero, the class has reached 200 starts, winning 34 of them (17 percent) and placing or showing in another 55 for an in-the-money rate of 44.5 percent. Not including Hold Still's cash from Puerto Rico (as the final chart isn't in yet to list her earnings), the group has banked $1,160,037, for $5,829 per start.

Follow the progress of all 187 sales picks here.