Mizzen Mast at stud: Underachiever? Let's run some stats up the flagpole and see

A discussion about the stallion Mizzen Mast -- prompted by the debut victory of his son Rough Sailing (a 2010 sales tip of mine) in a mile-turf maiden special weight at Arlington Park -- has spurred me to transfer those thoughts from Facebook to this blog.

And what I'm thinking -- same as I've been thinking for many years -- is that we in the U.S. horse racing industry have developed practically a two-faced way of evaluating stallions.

Mizzen Mast was described a stallion who "hasn't gotten it done" at stud, in part as indicated by his $15,000 fee, which is on the lower side for Kentucky. This caused me to take up for the fellow, because, frankly, while he's not the superstar of the stallion biz, Mizzen Mast is a solid sire and, at that $15,000, a pretty good value.

At first blush, Mizzen Mast might seem to be underachieving in the stallion ranks. His name falls (just) outside the top-100 on both the General Sires list and the Juvenile Sires list, and he's nowhere to be found on the Broodmare Sires list (though his daughters are still rather young).

But look deeper, because these lists are not a direct indicator of genetic strength passed on to a stallion's foals; rather, they're heavily influenced by sheer weight of numbers.

At this writing, No. 2 on the General Sires list is Giant's Causeway with 303 current runners; Mizzen Mast is 105th, but only has 115 sons and daughters racing. Though there are stallions ahead of Mizzen Mast on the list who have even fewer foals than he, the majority have more foals on the ground. Thus, the general sires list and really all the gross-earnings based lists always has been as much or more a product of quantity than of quality. It's a measure of the stallion's economic success -- the number of mare-owners willing to pay for a season to that stud -- far more than an endorsement or indictment of his talent, though marketing types will likely insist it takes quality (of racing career, pedigree and proven success at stud) to get mare numbers. (It doesn't; not always.)

By a similar token, stud fee to me means little or nothing regarding the actual track-worth of a sire. If effectiveness as a stallion of racehorses mattered, Slew City Slew -- who at present gets 79 percent runners, 58 percent winners, 6 percent stakes winners and statistically upgrades his mares -- might be $35,000 instead of $3,500 and getting mares 50 percent better than the ones he's seen.

Unfortunately, beyond "the big horse" (which the highest-priced stallions do periodically get), it's fashionability of pedigree and suitability for cashing in at a yearling or 2-year-old sale that creates the bulk of the difference in stud fees, more so than quality of runners.

A fine example of the misleading nature of fees: Mizzen Mast ($15K) presently has a higher percentage of runners from all foals (68-64) and winners from all foals (48-43), an equal percentage of stakes winners (5), and higher median earnings (about $23,550 vs. $22,501) when compared to Elusive Quality, who stands in Kentucky for $75,000. This despite a broodmare band comprised of females who are statistically about 30 percent worse than the mares Elusive Quality sees (1.49 Comparable Index vs. Elusive Quality's 2.25).

Mizzen Mast also has an average 2-year-old sale price of around $103K and a median of $52K off that $15,000 fee. Elusive Quality, who stood for a six-digit fee until recent years, has an average 2-year-old sale of around $150K but a median of $85K on his $75,000 fee; the latter is clearly a loss for any breeder taking a baby from foal to juvenile sale.

Granted, I'm picking on Elusive Quality because I've long thought he was likely the most overpriced stallion in America, if not the world. So let's look at another on the list (and contender for overpriced), the aforementioned Giant's Causeway, he of the 303 runners.

Statistic Giant's Causeway Mizzen Mast

Percent starters: 70 68

Percent winners: 44 48

Pct. stakes winners: 7 5
Pct. stakes placers: 5 4

Starts per runner: 11.26 13.07

Pct. wins/starts: 14 15
Pct. place/starts: 24 26

Average earnings: $75,136 $58,176

Median earnings: $16,378 $23,550

Earnings/start: $6,673 $4,450

Avg. Earnings Index: 1.99 1.49

Comparable Index: 3.24 1.59

AEI vs. CI: -38.6% -6.3%

Definitely Giant's Causeway leads in several key stats. He also trails in others -- particularly, and considerably, in median earnings. From that figure alone, it can be suggested (which I am) that despite his number of brilliant horses (the Shamardals, Eskendereyas, etc.), Giant's Causeway is getting useful horses at a lower percentage of his total get than is Mizzen Mast. This despite a stud fee of $100,000 vs. Mizzen Mast's $15,000, and a broodmare band (as measured via CI) of more than double the quality of that presented to Mizzen Mast. ... For that kind of price and opportunity difference, I would expect Giant's Causeway to crush a $15,000 stallion by every statistical measure. But in this case, he doesn't.

If we choose to compare Mizzen Mast to top Kentucky stallions by purely economic measures -- stud fee particularly, number of mares booked to the stud, and even the sire lists -- then yeah, I guess Mizzen Mast doesn't measure up.

If we're trying to figure out which stallions pass muster for getting racehorses, his numbers are competitive even with stallions priced at five to seven times his fee (but not as good as the even-cheaper Slew City Slew), despite getting broodmares that are consistently and considerably lesser producers than these two mentioned star-quality stallions.

It can be argued that some sort of "mishandling" by Juddmonte Farms, which stands Mizzen Mast, has resulted in these discrepancies in numbers and quality of mares. (It was suggested that Juddmonte erred in trying to get dirt horses from the Caro/Cozzene-line stallion, which is far better known for turf performance. I counter that Mizzen Mast ran his best races on dirt, as did another Cozzene son at stud, Alphabet Soup, and Alphabet Soup has gotten plenty of dirt runners at stud. Also, Mizzen Mast's female family includes Kentucky Oaks and Massachusetts Handicap winners on dirt among his nearest relatives, so dirt performance of his get was not an unreasonable expectation, though Mizzen Mast's best runners so far have been on grass and synthetic, most notably Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 winner Mast Track.)

I would counter that his deficits in number and quality of mares are likely heavily influenced by lacking a commercial pedigree -- Elusive Quality is by a top Mr. Prospector son in Gone West, Giant's Causeway by retired $500,000 breeding-shed megastar Storm Cat, while Mizzen Mast is by Cozzene.

Nothing Juddmonte can do could ever change the horse's family.

If one chooses to argue that Juddmonte perhaps could've done a more effective job of marketing Mizzen Mast to get more and better mares, that's a tough point to debate. It can only be quantified by the raw numbers of foals born and mares' CI -- the statistical fact that Mizzen Mast didn't get more and better mares. (And maybe more dirt-oriented mares. That's an analysis I've yet to undertake; the pedigrees of each mare Mizzen Mast has seen.)

But saying that Mizzen Mast is "not getting results on the track" (as was suggested) sort of misses the fact that -- by almost any measure other than sheer weight of numbers -- Mizzen Mast actually is getting some pretty good results on the track, even when measured against far more expensive stallions.

If I booked Zenyatta's first date

Now that Zenyatta has stated her case for Horse of the Year with her exhilarating victory in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, thoughts turn to the breeding shed.

While it might be nice to see the fabulous 5-year-old Street Cry mare take a shot at breaking Cigar's North American record of 16 wins in a row -- she's presently 14-for-14 lifetime, of course -- the likelihood of her ever racing again is practically zero. So, now to speculate on who that breeding date for Zenyatta might be.

Maybe it's too conventional in thinking, but I would first consider Giant's Causeway.

Zenyatta carries no Northern Dancer, so adding some over a Mr. Prospector-line mare is hard to quibble with. The cross does offer 4x4 inbreeding to Roberto and 5x5 Halo, which adds up to a linebreeding of 6S x 5S x 6D x 5D Hail to Reason.

Giant's Causeway at this writing is No. 4 all-time in progeny earnings on synthetic surfaces (one notch behind Street Cry), which should make Zenyatta's connections of owner Jerry Moss and trainer John Shirreffs happy, since they're based in California where all the major tracks are mandated to have all-weather surfaces instead of conventional dirt. But Giant's Causeway can get any sort of horse. He has multiple G1 progeny winners on dirt, turf and synthetics.

What's not to like?

Another consideration for Zenyatta, in my estimation, is to avoid the chance of adding too much size to her prospective foals. Zenyatta is as big a mare as you'll find; she stands more than 17 hands high. Sending her to a whopper of a stallion could result in babies who are so big they can't move fast enough to get out of their own way. Or that can't stay sound. Despite Zen's clearly overcoming the "too-much-size" pitfalls (perhaps in part because of masterful management by Shirreffs, who only raced her 14 times in a three-year career), it's my belief that an average-sized or even smaller horse is generally better both for athleticism and soundness.

Giant's Causeway has good size, but at 16.1 hands he isn't a monster.

In a few pedigree discussion groups, I've witnessed other recommendations for Zenyatta. One person suggested Hard Spun, who I like on pedigree. But if Zen were my mare and I were breeding to keep and race the foals -- as Moss likely will be -- then I wouldn't choose a stallion whose first runners are yet to prove themselves.

It would be easy enough to make cases for plenty of other top stallions, and for two more top choices, I would look to Awesome Again and big-splash youngster Medaglia D'Oro, the latter of whom is sire of Zenyatta's off-track (but never on-track) rival, splendid filly Rachel Alexandra.

But my top pick would be Giant's Causeway -- performance plus all-surface versatility.

Have ideas of your own? Please detail them in the comments section below.

Farewell to a favorite: Rahy pensioned

Just a quick chance today to say "goodbye," to the stud career, at least, of the little stallion who could, Rahy, who was announced as pensioned by Three Chimneys Farm at the age of 24.

I've never stood next to the fellow, but I've been told by those who have that "small" isn't the word for him. He's listed in the Stallion Register at 15.1 hands, but one woman compared his height to that of her show pony back home, and placed them almost on even terms.

Where Rahy stood tall was in the shed: A dozen millionaires; more than a dozen Grade 1 winners. As of this writing, progeny earnings of $85,707,354 from 554 winners and 84 stakes winners.

The names of his better get are unforgettable to race fans:

-- Fantastic Light, a dozen Grade or Group 1 wins and multiple championships, he earned nearly $8.5 million and was "Horse of the World."

-- Serena's Song, winner of 17 graded stakes races from 18 victories, twice beating colts including the Haskell Invitational-G1 and Jim Beam S.-G2 over colts, more than $3.2 million earned, champion 3-year-old filly.

-- Dreaming of Anna, graded-stakes winner on dirt and turf, victor of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2-year-old champion. And, of course, her full brother, G2-winning track record-setter Lewis Michael, who now is at stud at Three Chimneys.

-- Hawksley Hill, a rugged gelding with a mercurial temperament who was a multiple Grade 2 winner and earned $1.7 million from 45 races without ever winning a Grade 1.

-- Tranquility Lake, a multiple-G1 filly who earned $1.6 million.

-- Noverre, Irish-born millionaire son who won the Group 1 Sussex Stakes in the U.K. and at stud has already sired his own Group 1 winner in Le Harve (Prix du Jockey Club).

-- Tates Creek, filly who won 11 races and more than $1 million, including the Gamely H.-G1.

-- Early Pioneer, another of his gelded sons, millionaire winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup-G1.

-- Designed For Luck, 10 wins including the Shoemaker Breeders' Cup Mile-G1. 

-- Exotic Wood, three-times a G1 winner (Go For Wand, Santa Monica, Santa Maria handicaps).

Rahy got winners on dirt, turf and poly. He got winners going short, including Bop, whose six turf sprint stakes wins included three track records and his Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap time of 0:54 3/5 was a world record for 5 furlongs on grass when set. He got winners going long, namely many of those raced in Europe and, at home, the likes of Dancing Forever, winner of the 10-furlong Manhattan H.-G1 at Belmont and the mile and a half Elkhorn S.-G2 at Keeneland.

And, he's earned an excellent reputation as a broodmare sire. His daughters have produced Grade 1 or Group 1 winners including: Giant's Causeway (out of G2 winner Mariah's Storm, who has produced four other blacktype foals); Sophisticat (one of five blacktype foals out of Serena's Song, who also produced G2 winners Harlington and Grand Reward); After Market (son of Tranquility Lake); and Del Mar Oaks-G1 winner Rutherienne (out of Firecracker Handicap-winner Ruthian).

And I'm probably missing many sons and grandsons, daughters and granddaughters who are worth mentioning.

"Rahy is one of the most important stallions we've had," said Case Clay, president of Three Chimneys.

I'd say he's one of the most important stallions anyone has had in the last 25 years. And I do mean "anyone."