Hard Rock Candy finally tastes sweet victory

For eight consecutive starts, Hard Rock Candy had been a hard luck racehorse.

Eight times the filly from my 2010 sales-tip list went to post. Five times, including her first four straight, she came home in second place, and once she missed second by a neck.

• June 19, 2010, Calder Race Course, by a length to Greatest Dream, who since has made five stakes starts with a best finish of fourth in the Tropical Park Oaks.
• Aug. 1, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by a half-length to future allowance winner Parvenu.
• Aug. 29, 2010, Monmouth Park, by 7 1/4 lengths to After Later, who would contest the G1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont in her next out.
• Sept. 18, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by 3 1/2 to Floating Dream.
• May 31, 2011, Parx Racing, third by 4 to fellow Fugue sales-selection Circumstance, a neck out of second behind race-favorite Deflate the Bubble.
• Aug. 1, 2011, Parx Racing, by 1 1/4 to another of my sales selections, Shipwreck Cove.

On Monday, it finally was Hard Rock Candy's turn.

Sent off as the prohibitive favorite among a field of $40K-$35K maiden-claimers at Parx, Hard Rock Candy and Kendrick Carmouche stalked the early leaders through opening fractions of 22.57 and 45.57, then surged in the stretch to gradually draw clear and win the race by a length and a quarter over Lyle's Angel. Final time for 6.5 furlongs over a fast strip was a brisk 1:16.18.

Hard Rock Candy was bred in Florida by Brent Fernung and Crystal Fernung. She is owned by Barbara Armstrong and Gavin-Ty Racing LLC, and trained by Richard Vega.

I tabbed the chestnut daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, among my top prospects prior to her failing to sell at a high bid of just $32,000 as Hip 940 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. Though it has taken her awhile to break maiden, the clocking of her win on Monday suggests the filly has the ability to move forward from this victory.

A similar move forward has been made by sales-tip Admitit ($20,000 OBSAPR Hip 1046), who took 10 tries to break maiden at Woodbine, with five places and three shows in her first nine starts, but now has won three straight and earned $121,750 from 12 lifetime starts.

Neither of those two quite hold the record for seconditis among the sales-tips. That honor goes to Mugsy Dehere ($40,000 EASMAY Hip 323) who is 7-for-9 finishing second in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. He's earned $35,880 without winning, but hasn't run since May 14 nor worked in the last 60 days, so I'm left crossing my fingers he'll make a comeback.

Others who keep knocking on a door that's yet to open include:

• Rockin Harbor ($35K RNA, KEEAPR Hip 36), 0-3-1 from seven starts for $18,000, back on the work tab at Santa Anita.
• Elusive Land ($25K RNA, ADSSPR Hip 11), 0-3-0 from three maiden special weight starts at Woodbine for $34,881.
• Heir to Dare ($62K RNA, OBSAPR Hip 934), 0-3-0 from three starts in Florida, $26,241.
• Surprise Strike ($34K RNA, EASMAY Hip 380), 0-3-0 from six starts at Presque Isle, Woodbine and Saratoga, $29,749.
• After Words ($30K RNA, EASMAY Hip 281), 0-2-1 from four starts in the Mid-Atlantic, $15,110, in Tuesday at Parx.

Including Mugsy Dehere, that's 21 seconds from 32 starts for those six.

Regardless, Hard Rock Candy becomes the 103rd maiden-breaker among the 187 prospects I selected from various 2-year-old sales last year. That's 55 percent of all selections and 66.5 percent of the 155 to have made at least one start.

Click here to see the statistics on all 187 selections, plus nine horses whose high prices I criticized.

Sales-tip Shipwreck Cove latest to break maiden, and to deny hard-luck Hard Rock Candy

Someday, I have to believe, Hard Rock Candy is going to win a race.

Just when I thought that might be today -- and so did bettors, sending her off as the favorite at nearly even money in a 5.5-furlong test at Parx Racing in Philadelphia -- one of her fellow "sales tips" of 2010 stepped up to deny her on a day when nobody else could.

Shipwreck Cove, previously 0-for-2 in a pair of starts at Monmouth Park, appeared for the first time at Parx on Monday and cleared her maiden hurdle in sharp, front-running style beneath jockey Erilius Vaz. She ran a blistering first quarter in 21.85, set a split of 45.05 for the half and finished the race in 1:04 flat. Hard Rock Candy, who had to be steadied at the sixteenth-pole by Kendrick Carmouche, settled for second -- again, for the fifth time in eight starts.

The race was for maidens carrying a $40,000 claiming tag. It was also at least the fifth time in about 13 months of following my 187-horse list of sales tips that two of "my" horses ran in the same race, and finished in the exacta. This time it was worth $38.40 for $2.

Both fillies were sales recommendations of mine on this blog from various juvenile auctions of 2010. Shipwreck Cove, a gray or roan daughter of Stormy Atlantic-Coquettish, by Not For Love, sold for just $18,000 as Hip 895 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. Hard Rock Candy, a chestnut, Florida-bred daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, failed to sell at that same auction as Hip 940 when the $32,000 top offer for her did not meet her consignor's reserve price.

Shipwreck Cove was bred in Kentucky by Susan Shipp and Cynthia Polk. She is owned by Rayzin The Bar Stables and Hilltop Winners Circle Stables. Her trainer is Michael Lerman. The filly has now earned $22,070 from three starts. I touted her not only off a good 10.1 breeze at the sale, but because her stakes-winning dam (who was half to two other stakes winners) had already produced a stakes-placer Taking a Chance (by Stephen Got Even, now four wins, 2nd Tippet S. at 2, $103,834) and an older brother who was a first-out winner on turf in Roguish (Arch).

Her connections would be wise not to ignore the turf proclivities of this family. Her half-sister was stakes-placed on turf, her half-brother a grass winner, her dam (while a stakes winner on dirt) was stakes-placed once on grass, and her dam's half-sister MISS LOMBARDI won the Maryland Million Ladies' S. at a mile and an eighth on turf. Since this filly's sire Stormy Atlantic can certainly get a grass horse, it could be worth sending Shipwreck Cove to the turf course sooner rather than later.

As for Hard Rock Candy, she's earned $61,340 from five places and a show in eight starts. And, she's hardly the only hard-luck maiden among my 187-horse list of prospects from last season

Mugsy Dehere has finished second seven times from nine starts, all in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. Elusive Land didn't debut until age 3, and has finished second in all three of her starts at Woodbine, on grass and on Polytrack. Another Wildcat Heir filly from my list, Heir to Dare, is 3-for-3 second-place, all among maiden special weights this winter and spring at Gulfstream Park. Surprise Strike is 3-for-5 finishing in second place, with a recent sixth in a blanket finish at Saratoga in which the margins between the first six places were head-neck-half-neck-neck.

I'd even argue that a fellow banished to Assiniboia Downs, Rain Dance, is a hard-luck maiden. He's 6-for-11 finishing third (never even second), and I'm afraid won't win a race until he gets a rider who understands that the shortest way around the track is on the rail. On Monday, the horse rated patiently and saved ground in maiden-claiming company and the rail opened up for him like Moses parting the Red Sea, but he'd already been taken widest of all (five-wide, per the chart, I'd say six) on the turn for home. Rain Dance ultimately lost by 2 3/4 lengths to Gimmea Can Do It and Regina Sealock, who led gate-to-wire and thus had an inside trip, and missed by a length to second-place-throughout Molinaro Irishline and Krista Carignan; a fairly close third despite Rain Dance's running perhaps 30 to 40 feet further than either of those horses by the finish. In his previous two races Rain Dance was six-wide and seven-wide on the turn for home.

The more I follow racing, the more I realize and appreciate (and wager upon) the rare combination of skill and courage it takes to skim the fence like Calvin Borel.

That frustration side, the aforementioned Shipwreck Cove hereby becomes maiden-breaker No. 95 from my 187-horse list of sales recommendations; that's 50.8 percent. The class has one more chance tonight as the ultra-cheap ($3,000 at OBSAPR) Bernardus goes forth in maiden-claiming company within the hour at Mountaineer Park.

Click here to see them all, complete with updated statistics.

Two more maidens broken, another horse second again, for the seventh time

Two maidens broke through with their first career victories Saturday, while a third kept knocking on the door to the Winners' Club without being let inside.

Abrianna, a filly I recommended but who failed to sell at last year's Adena Springs sale in Ocala, Fla., looped the field on the turn for home and swept to victory Saturday at Woodbine in her fourth career start. Also collecting his first win in his fourth start, later in the day, was Back Alley Deal, a gelding I tabbed while serving as a hired bloodstock agent at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training, in Timonium, Md.

And, late Saturday night, another Fasig-Tipton May graduate I recommended, Mugsy Dehere, finished second. Again. For the seventh time in nine career starts, all in maiden special weight company at Charles Town.

Abrianna was sent off as the 1/2 favorite at Woodbine as part of an entry with fellow sales-tip Celidonia, both of whom are racing for Stronach Stables after owner/breeder/racing magnate Frank Stronach's Adena Springs was unable to sell them at the farm's Ocala auction last April. That sale took place at Ocala Breeders' Sales Company a day prior to the kickoff of the massive annual OBS April sale. The Ontario-bred Abrianna (Lemon Drop Kid-Ain't She Awesome, by Awesome Again) failed to sell at a bid of $25,000, while Florida-bred Celidonia (North Light-Quatrain, by Quiet American) was a $40,000 RNA. Adena Springs had tried to unload both as yearlings at Keeneland September, as well, with offers of $22,000 for Abrianna and $30,000 for Celidonia also failing to meet reserves.

I waffled a bit on Abrianna, but found it difficult not to like that her dam was a half-sister to "a sick slate of stakes horses," including a pair of Canadian 2-year-old filly champs (POETICALLY and PRIMALY), and G3 winner WHISKEY WISDOM. Chief among those half-siblings to Ain't She Awesome is G1 winner CITRONNADE, who was by Lemon Drop Kid, sire of Abrianna herself.

The filly has panned out rather nicely, with a win and two second-place finishes from four lifetime starts for $63,140. Celidonia, who consistently brought higher bids at auction than Abrianna, remains unplaced from four starts, for $2,188.

Shortly after Abrianna's win at Woodbine Saturday, Back Alley Deal -- a horse I thought was a bit overpriced at EASMAY 2010 -- reached the winner's circle for the first time in a race at Philadelphia Park. I shortlisted the horse, who was Hip 270 at that sale, on a sheet of 48 animals recommended to a client who was seeking an inexpensive prospect. I evaluated the horse after consigner True South touted him as a potential bargain, and while I liked him -- noting his dam was a half-sister to SHARP HUMOR and that he breezed a decent-for-that-sale 10.4 "with a low-to-the-ground action that seemed very efficient" -- I also couldn't help but notice that he was the first foal of a winless dam whose own dam had no real produce record, with only three foals total, none earning over $61K.

I was expecting the horse to be out of our bargain-basement price range (and he'd have been a good buy if he did stay that cheap), but probably not more than $25K to $30K. So, I wrote later, "I swallowed hard when I saw $60,000 on the board for him, and it wasn't even my money." The money belonged to Commonwealth Stable, who no longer owns the chestnut gelding, who was bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall, Haymarket Farms and Dearborn Stable. He's now the property of American Dreamer Stable, trained by Allen Iwinski, and those connections got their pictures snapped at Parx on Saturday.

Back Alley Deal has now earned $14,607.

As the last race of the day for my sales tips (several others, unmentioned here, also went to post), Mugsy Dehere continued beating his head against a door that just won't open. The $40,000 EASMAY purchase (Hip 323, by Dehere-Shadowy Waters, by Wild Again) was a Priority 2 horse on the list for my client. He's now earned $35,880 from nine starts, after once again being out-finished, this time by Hunter Hill.

Nevertheless, the two new winners become maiden-breakers 78 and 79 from my 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010. That's 42.3 percent of all selections.

Follow them all here.

Say 'Hi' to winner No. 73

Sand Hi outran his odds of nearly 14/1 Friday at Busan in Korea Friday to nab a half-length victory over second-favored Book Seven (13/2), in the process becoming the 73rd horse to break maiden worldwide from my Sales Tip Class of 2010.

I shortlisted the gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Hay Lauren, by Hay Halo, for a client at last May's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md., where I considered him a "Priority 3" priority on my 48-horse list. The Murray Smith consignee sold for $20,000 at EASMAY, and was shipped to Korea, as were a number of my selected bargain hopefuls from several of last year's sales.

His first win came in his sixth start, with two prior third-place efforts to his credit. He has now earned $27,265. Sand Hi becomes the fifth of 12 sales selections sent to Korea to break maiden there, in a jurisdiction where 2-year-olds routinely race against older horses and maidens sometimes run against winners until those winners have banked enough bucks to move up out of "Class 4."

Sand Hi's win could have been just the first of many over the weekend for my sales-tip class, but fate wasn't on their side in races all over the United States and Canada. The class had seconditis this Saturday and Sunday, with five maidens finishing second in their respective races over the two dates: Abrianna by a length and a half among special weights at Keeneland; Vital Victory by a half-length for a tag at Gulfstream; Admitit by a length for a $50K tag at Woodbine, her fifth "place" to go with three "shows" from eight lifetime starts; Mugsy Dehere losing by two lengths among special weights at Charles Town (his sixth time in eight starts); and Uncle Carm being beaten a neck among special weights at Keeneland on Sunday.

Admitit, a $20,000 OBSAPR purchase, has earned $51,460 and Mugsy Dehere, who went for $40K at EASMAY, has banked $30,680, each without winning a race.

The seconditis this weekend extended to races among winners, as well, with Black Tulip being beaten a half-length among $50K claimers on turf Sunday at Keeneland.

Meanwhile, at Oaklawn Park Saturday, a late-running Alstom had his momentum stemmed coming off the turn for home, and by the time he angled out to find running room, he ran out of ground before grabbing a piece of the pie in the $100,000 Northern Spur Stakes. The $7,000 EASMAY purchase broke maiden at first asking earlier in the Oaklawn meeting among special weights, collected a fast-closing third beaten less than a length for first in allowance company next-out, and finished just a nose and a neck out of third in a stakes field in his third-ever start. I'm none-too-secretly hoping his owners, TBS Farms LLC, will send the son of Silver Train to Belmont and Saratoga for the rest of spring, summer and fall, so he can compete among his NY-bred brethren, as he's done well already in open company and there should be money to be banked in his home state.

With its 73rd winner, the Class of 2010 now boasts 39 percent winners from all 187 selections.

While the link does need some updating, you can follow the Class of 2010 here.

Seconditis Saturday yields a new stakes horse

It hasn't been the best week and weekend so far for runners from the group of 187 horses I named on this blog as recommendations from this year's East Coast juvenile sales.

It also hasn't been the worst.

At a time when I felt relieved to finally break through Saturday evening for the week's first win with a 2/1 second-favorite at Fairplex, the class still managed to bank more than $100,000 in a day and finished second four times -- including in a Grade 3 stakes race at Woodbine (by a maiden) and, as if to reinforce that second was where we belonged, in a dead-heat at Charles Town.

The new stakes horse, who deserves top billing this week, is Rockin Heat (Hard Rock Ten-Makin Heat, by Makin), who has yet to break his maiden but also has never finished worse than second in three lifetime starts. The colt and rider Eurico Da Silva lodged a bid in the stretch of the Summer S.-G3 at Woodbine, but couldn't outfinish Garrett Gomez and Pluck, who won the roughly quarter-million-dollar race by a length as the 5/2 favorite. Rockin Heat was sent off at more than 10/1, but finished two and a quarter lengths ahead of 3/1 shot Stormy Rush.

Rockin Heat is trained by Reade Baker for owners Bear Stables Ltd. He banked $48,480 in American currency (an even $50K Canadian) has now earned $70,400 without winning a race.

I recommended Rockin Heat at the OBS April sale, where he sold for $85,000 as Hip 97.

"Hard to believe you'll get much of a deal on this Kentucky-bred," I wrote, though the horse did end up selling for a bit less than the sale average.

I'm a fan of the early work at stud by his sire, Rock Hard Ten, and dam Makin Heat was a stakes winner at Laurel and Delaware Park. She's already produced winners, second dam Warmedbythesun (by Lobsang) won 15 times from ages 2 to 8, and third dam Tongario (Grey Dawn II) bore nine winners, including foals who claimed 17, 10, 10 and eight victories. The colt made his own case by looking the part, and breezing a 21.3 quarter despite being by a classic distance-type sire, whom he seems to take after by having a bit of size.

One would have to think Rock Heat will break his maiden soon; after all, on Saturday he was but a length back of winning his way into the Breeders' Cup.

After picking up a second place finish on Friday at Camarero in Puerto Rico, where dual-winner Hold Still was defeated in an allowance by a stakes-placed filly whom she had beaten last out, Saturday's racing started with three straight place-finishes, as well, capped by Rockin Heat.

The sales tips made up one-fourth of a 12-horse field drawn into a whopping $90,000 maiden special weight race on Owners' Day at Parx Racing (blech, Philadelphia Park). And, two of them came through, though not quite enough to win.

Hard Rock Candy made it 4-for-4 second-place finishes by getting by and holding off debuting sales-tip Circumstance in deep stretch for a big chunk of change. Hard Rock Candy -- who just has to break through sooner or later -- has earned $47,140 without winning a race, after failing to meet her reserve with but a $32,000 top bid at OBSAPR, where she was Hip 940. Circumstance was also to have gone through the ring as Hip 388 at OBSAPR, but was withdrawn.

Also in that race was firster One Punch Knockout, yet another OBSAPR horse ($70,000 as Hip 89) who never seemed to be all that involved, mentally or physically, from the outset.

A bit later in the afternoon, some 90 minutes before Rockin Heat raced, There Goes Molly got into a turf-mile, statebred maiden special weight at Belmont off the also-eligible list. She'd shown little in two tries at Saratoga and was sent of at 59.5/1. Well, surprise, surprise. Molly closed from deep to get up for a clear second under Abel Lezcano, finishing with "good energy" though still beaten more than eight lengths by runaway winner Hessonite. There Goes Molly, who failed to sell at a $6,000 top bid at EASMAY, earned $9,360 for the start.

After a couple of disappointing finishes, including by an Aragorn firster perhaps undone by having an Arlington turf race washed onto the main track, the last place-finisher came in the form of debuting Mugsy Dehere in the fourth race Saturday evening at Charles Town. Sent off at 8/1, he and 14/1 Southern Will could not be separated at the wire and dead-heated for "place" behind far-gone winner C V Eis, who aired by seven lengths.

The class picked up its first winner of the week -- and another repeater -- about 20 minutes after Mugsy Dehere finished deadlocked for second at Charles Town. Gibson Home Run, a debut winner at Del Mar, won for the second time in three starts, this time at Fairplex, where he was sent off second-favored at 2/1 in a $40,000 starter allowance. He cornered like he was on rails and posted a time just a shade over 1:12 for six furlongs; decent considering that at FPX, he has to make two turns instead of one.

Gibson Home Run (Gibson County-Tanja, by Allen's Prospect) was bred in Florida by McKathan Bros., and sold for $30,000 as Hip 546 at OBSAPR. He is trained by Peter Miller for owners Gary Barber, Roger Birnbaum and Kevin Tsujihara, and was ridden by Fairplex's all-time leader, Martin Pedroza.

I tabbed him after his scalding 9 4/5 drill caught my eye and I realized that while his multiple stakes-winning dam has never really reproduced herself, she does have six winners from eight prior foals. He's justified my confidence thus far, and has earned back $26,960 of his purchase price.

Saturday night saw two more stakes-starters, but recent maiden-breaker Sultry Gibson could only pull off winning the photo for fourth in the $100,000 Miss Shenandoah Stakes at Charles Town (won by the dazzling Twelve Pack Shelly) and, despite being non-blacktype stakes-placed already, Blue 'em Away found himself short in Canada, getting beat a neck for fourth in the Winnipeg Futurity. Neither of those finishes was enough, of course, to score catalog blacktype for the horse in question. Each now has made an impressive six starts so far as a juvenile.

Including Hold Still's placing at Camarero, the class has reached 200 starts, winning 34 of them (17 percent) and placing or showing in another 55 for an in-the-money rate of 44.5 percent. Not including Hold Still's cash from Puerto Rico (as the final chart isn't in yet to list her earnings), the group has banked $1,160,037, for $5,829 per start.

Follow the progress of all 187 sales picks here.