Number of stakes horses reaches 15

As noted in a prior blog post, a Thanksgiving Day Grade 1 race in Puerto Rico provided this blog's Sales-Tip Class of 2010 with two new stakes horses as Concertos Pride and Hold Still finished second and third behind multiple graded-stakes winner La Glamorosa.

Those three formed the trifecta in the Clasica Dia de Accion de Gracias S.-G1 at Hipodromo Camarero.

I had hoped Hold Still could win the race, and she was favored on the morning line (albeit quite narrowly) over La Glamorosa, who had already won a G2 race going a shorter distance at Camarero. Hold Still's prior start was an allowance at Thursday's seven-furlong distance, a race in which she aired by six lengths (beating another stakes horse, La Kamikaze, by nearly 12 in the process), closing into a relatively brisk pace to win in a sharp time of 1:25.67.

Had Hold Still duplicated that effort on Thursday, she might have won by open lengths, as La Glamorosa scored the Grade 1 win in 1:26.71 over a fast strip. But this time, Hold Still came up a bit empty in the stretch, able to overtake the early leader, 5/1 Hjerdish, but not catch up to La Glomorosa, nor able to hold off fellow sales-tip Concertos Pride, who closed from last to grab second.

I recommended both Concertos Pride and Hold Still out of the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training.

Concertos Pride (Concerto-Epistolary, by Deputy Minister) was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud, and sold for only $5,000 as Hip 1003 at OBSAPR. She is conditioned by Raul Perez for owners Establo Rio Canas, and now has two wins and four second-place finishes from eight starts, for $29,954.

I wasn't put off by the filly's 22.2 breeze, which was slower than many at the sale but could hardly be considered poor for an April 2-year-old. And I liked the fact that her dam, from the excellent broodmare-sire line as a daughter of Deputy Minister, had already produced nine winners from 13 older foals, including four stakes horses by four different sires: G3-placed TEXTURIZER (On to Glory); 11-time winner and G2-placed Deputy Lad (Mecke); eight-race winner Valid Chance (Valid Appeal); and Epistola (Buckaroo). Concertos Pride also has major-earning half-siblings of $100K by Forest Wildcat and $97K by Robyn Dancer, plus multiple-winning sibs by Pentelicus and Notebook.

As I noted about Epistolary in the past: "One sign of a good broodmare is her ability to do solid work with almost any sire."

Now Epistolary has produced her fifth stakes horse, none by the same sire. And Concertos Pride's owners have gotten good early returns on their $5,000 investment.

Hold Still (Include-Zitlaly, by Emancipator) sold for more -- $18,000 -- earlier in the sale, as Hip 696. She was bred in Kentucky by Charles H. Deters and is owned by Wanda Iris Inc. and trained by Samuel Diaz. She has now won three times with a second and a graded-stakes third from seven starts, for $32,963.

Her eighth-mile breeze of 10.3 was fair for OBSAPR, and I couldn't look past the fact that her female family simply wins. Her dam ran 46 times, winning six and placing in another 15 including some Illinois-bred stakes races, for $212,327. Hold Still's winning second dam also produced $199,981 stakes winner LA JOYERIA (42 starts). Stakes-winning third dam RAPID RAJA was a half-sister to Cowdin S.-G2 winner NATIVE RAJA and to 24-win stakes-placer Naroctive.

The stakes-placings by Concertos Pride and Hold Still runs the number of stakes horses to 15, or 8 percent of my 187 recommended horses this year, and 13.8 percent of the 109 that have started at least one race.

The class has five stakes winners: RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S.-G1, $180,820); GOURMET DINNER (Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, Florida Stallion Dr. Fager S., Florida Stallion Affirmed S., $809,660); REPRIZED HALO (Florida Stallion In Reality S., only horse to defeat Gourmet Dinner, $254,016); PULGARCITO (Governor's Cup S., $61,170); and FISCAL POLICY (Bassinet S., $59,080).

There are eight stakes-placers in addition to the new two from Puerto Rico: Delightful Mary (2nd Mazarine S.-G3A, 3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1, $310,377); Alienation (2nd Spinaway S.-G1, Adirondack S.-G2, $104,000); Rockin Heat (2nd Summer S.-G3T, Grey S.-G3A, $148,496); Stopspendingmaria (2nd Schuylerville S.-G3, $59,167); Rough Sailing (2nd Arlington-Washington Futurity-G2A, euthanized after a spill in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf S.-G1, $37,534); Spring Jump (2nd White Clay Creek S., $50,160); Goldenrod Road (3rd Clasico Fanatico Hipico-G3(PR), $14,412); and non-blacktype-placed Blue 'Em Away (2nd Osiris S.-N, $16,833).

Of the sales-tip stakes horses, only two cost more than $90,000 at the sales: Delightful Mary was the $500,000 sale-topper at OBSAPR, while Fiscal Policy brought (a surprising to me) $140,000 at the same sale.

And out of 15 stakes-winners or -placers I recommended, 10 of them -- that's fully two-thirds of the 15 -- cost $40,000 or less: Rigoletta; Gourmet Dinner; Reprized Halo; Pulgarcito; Rough Sailing; Spring Jump; Concertos Pride; Hold Still; Goldenrod Road; and Blue 'Em Away.

Those comparative bargains cost a total of $263,000 to buy -- an average of just $26,300 per horse -- and have earned a combined $1,487,522, or $148,752 apiece.

Follow all 187 sales-picks, and a few pans, at this former post.

Foreign Report: Viva Ace is a winner again in Korea; two new stakes horses at Camarero in Puerto Rico

It's been a pretty good week overseas for members of the sales-tip Class of 2010, with a two-time winner on Korean soil and a pair of 2-year-olds finishing second and third in Puerto Rico Grade 1 company at Hipdromo Camarero.

Viva Ace (Macho Uno-Dancing Lake, by Meadowlake) left no doubt that he would graduate from Class 4 company in Korea at BusanKeyongnam racetrack on Friday.

Korean conditions don't advance a horse from the lowest ranks -- Class 4 allowance -- simply when he breaks his maiden. Horses continue to race in Class 4, with 2-year-olds often facing older, until their lifetime earnings reach a level that promotes them to Class 3. Horses foaled outside of Korea face one another in foreign-bred races, while domestic horses benefit from fields for exclusively Korean-breds.

Viva Ace finished second in his 1,000-meter Korean debut at Busan on Oct. 17. He broke maiden at 1,200 meters in a field of 10 on Nov. 7. Despite a packed field of 14 Friday that included two 3-year-old Australian-bred winners and a pair of U.S.-bred juveniles who both had second-place finishes on their young records, Viva Ace crushed them all going 1,300 meters (about 6.5 furlongs), winning by a dozen lengths.

The dark bay or brown gelding is owned by Hong Kyung Pyo and is trained by Kang Hyoung Gon. Though he was ridden by You Hyun Myung in his first two starts, Viva Ace benefited from a weight-break Friday by carrying apprentice rider Song Keong Yun to victory. He has now earned the equivalent of $33,339 from three starts.

I shortlisted Viva Ace when he went through the ring as Hip 90 at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training this May. I was was hired to find the better prospects among the sale's least-expensive horses, and Viva Ace eventually sold to Korean interests for just $20,000, well below the average price at the sale.

I liked him for his 10.3 eighth-mile breeze, which was fairly fast for EASMAY, and because his second dam, CORMORANT'S FLIGHT won five stakes from 10 total victories for $330,138, and second dam DOUBLE SUEZ was eight times from 2 to 4, including a stakes race, for $80,161. Double Suez produced three stakes horses, including Laurel, Delaware Park and Philly Park stakes winner THUNDER FLASH and G2-placed Reef Reef.

What I didn't so much like about the colt was his lengthier pasterns, which give me some concern about long-term soundness. But he's certainly been sharp in the short term.

Two other solid early performers in a foreign market are fillies Concertos Pride and Hold Still, who finished second and third Thursday in the Clasico Dia de Accion de Gracias S.-G1 at Puerto Rico's Hipodromo Camarero. They are the 14th and 15th stakes horses from the 187-member sales class, bringing the number of stakes-placed runners to 8 percent of all selections and 13.8 percent of the 109 that have raced.

Since it takes a couple of days for charts to make their way to my inbox from Puerto Rico via Equibase, I'll detail their mutual race and update their records and accurate earnings on this blog in a couple of days.

The win by Viva Ace drives the class' overall record to 57 wins from 367 recorded starts, a strike rate of 15.5 percent. As a group, the 109 starters have at least hit the board in 45 percent of their starts. Their combined earnings are now $3,046,754, which averages to $8,302 per start and $27,952 per starter.

Follow all 187 of my 2010 sales picks (and a few pans) in the list at the end of this former post.

Concertos Pride collects second 'W' in P.R.

Stalking the pace set by Humorus Girl and taking over decisively in mid-stretch, 2010 sales-tip Concertos Pride scored her second lifetime victory in six starts at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico Monday, by a margin of four and a half lengths.

Apprentice rider Edwin Gonzalez patiently bided his time aboard the winner before pouncing on the tiring leader, who had set honest early fractions of 23.80, 47.10 and 1:12.65 in the seven furlong race for $24,000 claimers. The final eighth was loped in a leisurely 14.39.

Concertos Pride is conditioned by Raul Perez for owners Establo Rio Canas. She was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud. On Monday, she was sent off at 1/2 odds in the $24,000 claimer, and allowed bettors to breathe easy by the sixteenth-pole as such a heavy favorite should.

With the win, Concertos Pride has earned $15,250 from two wins and two second-place finishes in six starts.

Concertos Pride (Concerto-Epistolary, by Deputy Minister) was purchased for just $5,000 as Hip 1003 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. I selected her as a prospect because, though her dam was never a winner, she was a daughter of an excellent broodmare sire in Deputy Minister. And, she'd already produced nine winners from 13 foals, including four stakes horses by four different sires: G3-placed TEXTURIZER (On to Glory); G2-placed Deputy Lad (Mecke), who had 11 wins and earned $278,367; eight-time winner Valid Chance (Valid Appeal); and Epistola (Buckaroo). Epistolary also bore a winner of over $100,000 by Forest Wildcat, a multiple winner of $97K by Robyn Dancer, and a multiple-race-winners by Pentelicus and Notebook.

One sign of a good broodmare is her ability to do solid work with almost any sire, and Epistolary absolutely has proven herself in that regard. Why Concertos Pride sold so cheaply, I'll likely never be sure. Her breeze of 22.2 was slower than many at the sale, but hardly a bad quarter for an early 2-year-old. And I predicted that, based on pedigree, she'd likely be better with age and distance, yet she's already won twice at 2.

It might "just" be at Camarero, but had she stayed in the States, I'm sure a buyer could have spent a lot more to get a lot worse.

With her victory, Concertos Pride pushes the combined record of my 187 sales-tips of 2010 to 38 wins from 220 starts; a strike rate of 17.3 percent. They have won or placed 100 times from those outings, an in-the-money rate of 45.5 percent. Their earnings have reached a combined $1,263,475, which averages $5,743 per start.

Track the class in its entirety in the list at the bottom of this former post.

'Seconditis' weekend extends to graded stakes, but two more sales tips are maidens no longer

After starting an active three-day stretch with a couple of near-misses -- horses getting beaten a neck and a nose in maiden special weight races -- my juvenile sales-tip Class of 2010 had a strong Sunday to cap the weekend.

The Sabbath saw a pair of fillies I selected from this year's sales clearing their maiden hurdles in their second and fourth starts, respectively, and a third filly moving forward from a first-out maiden score to place in a Grade 2 stakes race in her second lifetime effort.

Let's tout the blacktype first.

Alienation, a filly owned by Jill Baffert and trained by her hall-of-fame husband, Bob, broke her maiden in fleet fashion at first asking over the Hollywood Park grass on July 5. Baffert scratched his wife's filly from the recent Sorrento S.-G3 at Del Mar, which would have been run on synthetic, and shipped her east, where she posted a bullet work in the mud -- five furlongs in essentially a minute flat -- leading up to the Adirondack S.-G2 at Saratoga.

On Sunday at the Spa, Alienation was pressed on the pace by Miss Sarah Brown (who would finish last of 10) through fractions of 21.72 and 45.07 and disposed of everyone else in the field by at least five lengths; everyone but Position Limit, that is. The Bellamy Road filly overtook the tiring leader and drew off to win the $150,000 race by five lengths, the same margin Alienation finished ahead of third-place Coax Liberty.

Earning $30,000 for her efforts, Alienation (Rock Hard Ten-Alienated, by Gone West) has now banked $54,000. She was a $60,000 purchase, so has nearly earned that back in just two starts, but has likely elevated her potential commercial value above that purchase price with G2 blacktype on her own page, and certainly has every hope for an even more promising future.

In tipping her as Hip 719 at OBSAPR, I noted that in addition to her brisk, 21-flat quarter in the under-tack show, her dam was a minor stakes winner with multiple blacktype siblings, whose second dam was a half-sister to G1 winners JUDGE ANGELUCCI, WAR and PEACE.

"If this filly earns any blacktype of her own ... this price looks very reasonable down the road," I wrote. "In fact, it already does."

Well, there you go.

Also on Sunday, maiden-breakers No. 15 and No. 16 from my 187-horse list of sales tips collected their first lifetime victories in widely disparate environments; one at Hoosier Park and the other at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico.

Fiscal Policy scored first in Indiana, building upon a third-place debut to take the field practically gate to wire in a five-furlong maiden special weight. She drew off to win by four and a quarter lengths for jockey Leandro Goncalves, covering the distance in 58.40.

The filly by Wildcat Heir-Betty's Courage, by Montbrook was foaled in Florida, bred by Robert L. Dodd. She is owned by Klaravich Stables Inc. and W.H. Lawrence, and trained by Tom Amoss. Her $21,000 share of the purse bumps Fiscal Policy's earnings to $24,080.

Fiscal Policy sold for a whopping $140,000 as Hip 801 at OBSAPR. I noted that her unraced dam had produced a solid, non-blacktype winner from two foals, and this filly's 10-flat eighth was promising. Her second dam was the stakes-placed Copelan mare Grand Betty, who produced G3 winner POSITIVE ENERGY, and this is the female family of G1 winner FAMILY ENTERPRIZE, among other stakes horses. Fiscal Policy's fifth dam is reine de course Bramalea, dam of breed-shaping sire Roberto.

"I thought she might bring less than the average Wildcat Heir (around $74,000 at the time), but she brought much more," I wrote after the then-unnamed filly sold. She was nearly the session-topper on the third day of the sale.

Later in the afternoon, Concertos Pride broke through in her fourth start in Puerto Rico. The filly had placed second among winners at first asking, losing to a horse who has now won at least thrice already. Then, Concertos Pride disappointed in two straight races against maidens (won by another of my sales picks, Hold Still).

The race was a six-furlong maiden special weight, but since it takes a few days for full charts from Hipodromo Camarero to filter their way to Equibase -- and then to me -- I'm not sure yet of the margin, or what Concertos Pride has earned from the win.

Concertos Pride sold as Hip 1003 at OBSAPR, and brought only $5,000. Though her dam was only placed, never a winner, I like that she is a daughter of a top broodmare sire in Deputy Minister, and had already produced nine winners from 13 foals, four of them stakes horses. That's the resume of a filly who should win somewhere, and pretty soon, she did. I'll need to see the time for six furlongs to see whether it's a race that would have been competitive somewhere in the States, even if at a lower-tier track.

The weekend, which included a first-time starter in Korea (to be reported later), boasted 15 races for my sales tips, with three wins, three seconds and a third, plus the third horse to achieve at least a blacktype-placing.

From 107 races, my sales picks have logged 17 wins (15.9 percent) and, with 15 places and a dozen shows, an in-the-money rate of 41.1 percent. Total earnings now have reached $539,028, not including the win by Concertos Pride or the race in Korea, dollar-figures from which aren't yet accessible for me.

Follow the race results of all 187 of my sales tips (and a few horses I didn't like) here.

Maiden-breaker No. 8, or 'numero ocho,' as it were

I've been a bit slow to blog this one, as I've hoped for the final chart to reach my inbox to get her official earnings updated. But since charts from Hipódromo Camarero in Puerto Rico are apparently imported to Equibase by carrier pigeon, I'm gonna go ahead and name-drop her now and update the statistics later.

Hold Still (Include-Zitlaly, by Emancipator) broke through to the winner's circle in her second start, eclipsing seven other rivals in a maiden special weight at Camarero on Wednesday. She became my eighth 2010 sales tip to break maiden, paid $6.10 to win, and covered 6 furlongs in 1:14.21, according to the finish-line photo Camarero posts on its Web site.

(Now the chart is in; she earned $5,700 for the win.)

Finishing fourth by a nose in that photo is the 2, Concertos Pride, another sales recommendation of mine from the same auction, OBS April. She was second against winners in her first out, and since has mysteriously failed twice against maidens.

Hold Still was an $18,000 purchase as Hip 696 at OBSAPR. (Concertos Pride sold for just $5,000.) In recommending her, I noted that while her 10.3 breeze was "only fair" (by that sale's standards), her female family wins. Her dam raced 46 times, winning six and placing in another 15, including stakes races among IL-breds at Fairmount and Hawthorne. Her winning second dam produced three foals that had raced as of the catalog, all were winners, and two earned black type, including LA JOYERIA ($199,981). (A fourth now has started without placing.) And her third dam, Rapid Raja, was stakes-placed and a half-sister to NATIVE RAJA (Cowdin S.-G2) and Naroctive (24 wins).

Pretty good bet to find a racehorse in this filly, even though she was banished to Puerto Rico and didn't exactly break maiden in "racehorse time."

But she's a winner, which a lot of them never are. And you could spend more and get less.

Track the performance of all 187 of my sales picks (and a few pans) in the list at the bottom of this past post.