Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Seriously, he did it -- Kid You Not wins in seventh try

Finding mid-race traffic despite running in a five-horse field, Terry Thompson and Kid You Not bided their time on the rail, then angled into the three-path in the stretch and came storming home for a two-length victory Tuesday at Iowa's Prairie Meadows.

In the process, Kid You Not became the 81st member of my 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010 to break his maiden. He did so in his seventh start, after previously placing four times at Prairie Meadows (last out) and Oaklawn Park. He has earned $28,188 after failing to meet reserve at a mere $12,000 at last year's Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training. That RNA prompted me to name him a potential "Second-Chance Deal" through private sale or should he reappear at a later auction.

Now gelded, the chestnut son of Lemon Drop Kid-Eliza's Time, by Barathea, races for Poindexter Thoroughbreds LLC, trained by Allen Milligan. Kid You Not paid $11.60 to win as the third-favored horse among the five entrants, after the scratch of one horse. His final time for a mile, closing into a modest early pace of 23.26/47.17, was 1:39.92.

While the horse has raced for a tag (and lost among maidens), and while you have to go back to the fifth generation of his tail-female line to find a dam who actually won a race (French-born stakes winner SKYLARKING II), I think Kid You Not still has huge up-side (seriously), and that the connections are quite possibly not racing him on his best surface(s), though, distance-wise, with this closer, I think the connections are making the effort. At least he did get a mile to travel here, but frankly, with this pedigree, the horse is just getting started at eight furlongs.

Sire Lemon Drop Kid was a Belmont Stakes winner (despite being a late-May foal) and his progeny-average winning distance is a lengthy 8.14 furlongs while standing in an American market increasingly dominated by speed. He also gets plenty of turf and synthetic-track horses, including the likes of G1 winners CITRONNADE (grass), RICHARD'S KID (synth) and SANTA TERESITA (synth). Nearly 44 percent of the lifetime earnings of Lemon Drop Kid foals have come on turf, and this season, 13 percent of his progeny's total earnings so far have come on synthetics.

On the other side of the family, Kid You Not's dam-sire, Barathea, was a European Horse of the Year, and while being a miler himself, he was sired by Sadler's Wells, whose progeny average winning distance (per Racingpost.com) is 11.3 furlongs. Second dam Meadow Spirit (dam of 14f San Juan Capistrano-G1 winner SUNSHINE STREET) was by Chief's Crown, now installed as an "Intermediate/Solid" chef de race. Third dam Liberty Spirit (dam of 10f Flower Bowl H.-G1 winner DAWN'S CURTSEY and European turf vagabond Roger de Berksted) was by Classic/Solid chef Graustark. Fourth dam Soaring was the dam of G1 route winners MEHMET and MISS SWAPSCO, the granddam of BALLADE, and is in the tail-female line of the likes of GLORIOUS SONG, SINGSPIEL, SLIGO BAY, DEVIL'S BAG, RAHY, SAINT BALLADO and many others.

That's a lot of two-turn horses and a lot of turf on the female side of the family. I would ship this boy to Arlington at least long enough to see how well he fits on Polytrack and turf at a facility that doesn't have traditional dirt to offer.

At any rate, with the 81st winner, the class now boasts 43.3 percent winners from all selections. You can follow their exploits here.

No comments:

Post a Comment

I welcome comments, including criticism and debate. But jerks and the vulgar will not be tolerated.