Friday, April 22, 2011

Decennial wins in start numero dos

Decennial is a winner, and it certainly didn't take her 10 years. Nor even 10 starts.

The chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner rated patiently in fourth place for jockey Channing Hill Friday in a maiden-claiming field going a mile on turf at Aqueduct. When the group straightened out for home and easy early leader Galaxy Jet ran out of gas, Decennial easily powered away from fellow stalkers One Spring Storm and Mean Reversion to win by a widening four lengths over Point Gammon.

Decennial clears her maiden hurdle in her second lifetime start, having missed the board in her one prior effort. She earned $12,000 for the MCL $16K win at a mile on turf for trainer Linda Rice and owner Blue Devil Racing Stable, running her lifetime bankroll to $12,400. The filly was foaled in Florida and bred by Ocala Stud.

I recommended Decennial prior to her purchase by Vina Del Mar Thoroughbreds for $26,000 as Hip 349 at last year's OBS April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She hails from a female family that I turned to three times during my analysis of that sale -- and all three are now winners, two of them of graded stakes.

Decennial is very closely related to G3 winner GOURMET DINNER, who is also sired by Trippi and out of Decennial's half-sister, Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus). I recommended Gourmet Dinner from that same OBSAPR sale and he won four of eight for over $989,000 before falling off the Kentucky Derby trail with, initially, scarcely a trace. Now the connections say he has a sore shin. ... Gourmet Dinner sold for just $40,000 to co-breeder William J. Terrill when he and Ocala Stud cashed-out their partnership last April by running him through the sale.

Another of Decennial's half-sisters, Almost Aprom Queen (Montbrook), produced a G1-winning 2-year-old of last year RIGOLETTA (Concerto), who earned $184,070 before being retired at 3 with what in some places has been described as a tendon injury. I recommended her as Hip 726 at OBSAPR, where she sold for just $35,000 to Erik and Pavla Nygaard's Thor-Bred Stable, and clearly now is worth more as a broodmare prospect than it's worth to rehab her and keep racing her, perhaps at less than her best.

Beyond all the recent stakes performers, Decennial already was a half-sister to G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K earned) and LADY GIN ($227K). With all that black type on the page, it's a little surprising she could be entered for $16,000 in only her second start and make it through the race unclaimed. She won like she was worth at least a few pennies more than that.

I suppose my primary concern now would be soundness, as both Gourmet Dinner and Rigoletta (who admittedly was pigeon-toed) have apparently experienced issues.

Note that I took a pass at OBSAPR on Hip 841 from this family, a gelding by Concerto (as was Rigoletta) out of Decennial's half-sister Candlelightdinner, by Slew Gin Fizz. Now named VUELVE RUBEN M, he won four times in seven starts in Puerto Rico at age 2, including at least two stakes races, for $102,660.

Four foals from the immediate female family in the same sale, four winners, three stakes winners, two graded in the U.S. ... Despite the physical woes experienced by two of the foals (and I sure hope Gourmet Dinner bounces back), that's pretty serious production.

Friday's racing almost produced another maiden winner from my Sales-Tip Class of 2010. Herecomeseveryman was sent off as the favorite but beaten by a head in a turf-claimer at Gulfstream Park. Francisco's Boy, another member of the class, missed the break and finished sixth beaten 5 1/4 in the same race.

Decennial becomes the 74th winner from my 187-horse list of juvenile recommendations from last year's sales; that's 39.6 percent. Though the statistics need a little updating, you can follow the class in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Say 'Hi' to winner No. 73

Sand Hi outran his odds of nearly 14/1 Friday at Busan in Korea Friday to nab a half-length victory over second-favored Book Seven (13/2), in the process becoming the 73rd horse to break maiden worldwide from my Sales Tip Class of 2010.

I shortlisted the gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Hay Lauren, by Hay Halo, for a client at last May's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md., where I considered him a "Priority 3" priority on my 48-horse list. The Murray Smith consignee sold for $20,000 at EASMAY, and was shipped to Korea, as were a number of my selected bargain hopefuls from several of last year's sales.

His first win came in his sixth start, with two prior third-place efforts to his credit. He has now earned $27,265. Sand Hi becomes the fifth of 12 sales selections sent to Korea to break maiden there, in a jurisdiction where 2-year-olds routinely race against older horses and maidens sometimes run against winners until those winners have banked enough bucks to move up out of "Class 4."

Sand Hi's win could have been just the first of many over the weekend for my sales-tip class, but fate wasn't on their side in races all over the United States and Canada. The class had seconditis this Saturday and Sunday, with five maidens finishing second in their respective races over the two dates: Abrianna by a length and a half among special weights at Keeneland; Vital Victory by a half-length for a tag at Gulfstream; Admitit by a length for a $50K tag at Woodbine, her fifth "place" to go with three "shows" from eight lifetime starts; Mugsy Dehere losing by two lengths among special weights at Charles Town (his sixth time in eight starts); and Uncle Carm being beaten a neck among special weights at Keeneland on Sunday.

Admitit, a $20,000 OBSAPR purchase, has earned $51,460 and Mugsy Dehere, who went for $40K at EASMAY, has banked $30,680, each without winning a race.

The seconditis this weekend extended to races among winners, as well, with Black Tulip being beaten a half-length among $50K claimers on turf Sunday at Keeneland.

Meanwhile, at Oaklawn Park Saturday, a late-running Alstom had his momentum stemmed coming off the turn for home, and by the time he angled out to find running room, he ran out of ground before grabbing a piece of the pie in the $100,000 Northern Spur Stakes. The $7,000 EASMAY purchase broke maiden at first asking earlier in the Oaklawn meeting among special weights, collected a fast-closing third beaten less than a length for first in allowance company next-out, and finished just a nose and a neck out of third in a stakes field in his third-ever start. I'm none-too-secretly hoping his owners, TBS Farms LLC, will send the son of Silver Train to Belmont and Saratoga for the rest of spring, summer and fall, so he can compete among his NY-bred brethren, as he's done well already in open company and there should be money to be banked in his home state.

With its 73rd winner, the Class of 2010 now boasts 39 percent winners from all 187 selections.

While the link does need some updating, you can follow the Class of 2010 here.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Revenge is sweet; takes short field at long price

Lime Rock Revenge, off from the races since being scratched from a start at Del Mar in late July last year, on Friday afternoon at Santa Anita looked like a horse who hadn't missed a beat.

And he wasn't going to be beaten.

The 3-year-old gelding broke maiden in his second start for trainer Doug O'Neill last year, then was scrubbed from a starter allowance at Del Mar and clearly needed some time off to overcome an injury or ailment. He went back into training late in December and has ramped up the work schedule since, with recent drills of a minute flat, 47-flat and 1:12.20 for five, four and six furlongs since moving from the synthetic at Hollywood Park onto the dirt at Santa Anita leading up to this start.

Still, he was sent off at nearly 8/1 odds this afternoon (equal to the morning line) in what was to be a five-horse field of $50,000 claimers that was scratched down to four. And Lime Rock Revenge promptly won like he should have been the favorite.

Kerwin John hustled Lime Rock Revenge from the gate to engage 6/5 favorite (and three-time winner) Montellano every step of the way. John's comeback gelding was on the lead at each call through blistering fractions of 21.24 and 43.70, which probably raised the confidence of Martin Pedroza aboard Chinese Praise and Rafael Bejarano aboard First Strike as they trailed the leaders through a seemingly suicidal pace.

Montellano folded. Lime Rock Revenge most certainly did not.

With Chinese Praise hitting his best best stride late -- and having covered the first six furlongs in a withering 1:08.98 -- Lime Rock Revenge dug deep enough to stay in front by a half-length at the wire over the closer. First Strike was five lengths beaten in third, while Montellano came home 18 1/2 lengths in arrears of the long-shot who ran him off his feet. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs was a solid 1:15.86.

He paid $17.20 to win in a four-horse race.

The son of Limehouse-Genie's Flight, by Silver Hawk, was bred in Florida by A. Claire Silva and now has earned $39,400 from two wins in three California starts, with victories over synthetic and conventional dirt.

I recommended Lime Rock Revenge out of last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training, where he was a $16,000 RNA when run through the ring as Hip 1082. He was already gelded, perhaps decreasing interest in him as he'd never be a stallion prospect. But I liked that while his 15-race-maiden dam was never a winner, she'd already produced 11 winners from 13 prior foals (including stakes winner SILVER ON SILVER) and Lime Rock Revenge's second dam, T. V. Genie, was a G3-placed half-sister to five-times Horse of the Year KELSO.

If they can keep him sound, he just might be serious business.

Follow the sales-tip class at this link.

There Goes Molly ... to the winner's circle

There Goes Molly -- who was a $6,000 RNA when I recommended her in a search for bargain horses at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale -- on Friday afternoon staged a long drive to win for the first time, in her 11th career start.

The 3-year-old filly by Chief Seattle-Hey Darla, by Evansville Slew, was bred by Pegasus Farms, and is now owned by trainer Randi Persaud, who has conditioned her for the last two starts after picking her up from the barn of Leo O'Brien. She has been second for MCL $10,000 and now first at MCL $16,000 for Persaud, today piloted by Abel Lezcano.

Lezacano put the whip to Molly leaving the gate this afternoon, but soon let her settle into a stalking position, in fifth place and about two lengths back of the leaders of the eight-horse race. Molly swung wide entering the stretch, left favored Tillie's Girl and Cornelio Velasquez who had been stalking the leaders with her, then rolled right on by Unbridled Toga and Eddie Castro, who had set pressured fractions of 22.93 and 46.78.

There Goes Molly covered the six furlongs in 1:12.23 and won by a widening 2 1/4 lengths.

The filly does have a closing style and I thought she might need more ground to eventually break through, but today was her day.

Though at the time I was a bit uncertain of selecting a horse inbred 2x4 (to Seattle Slew in this case), I shortlisted this filly for a client at EASMAY because she was fairly clean and straight upon inspection, breezed 11.0 for an eighth at a sale where that was average, and I thought she'd stay fairly inexpensive even though she is a half-sister to (now) nearly $430,000-earner R BETTY GRAYBULL (Holy Bull). In fact, she was a "Priority 1" selection on that list of 48 prospects, among the 17 I rated most highly. We were in the market for one horse and had already bought by the time this filly went through the ring at Hip 176. Despite tabbing her as a potential bargain, I was surprised that she only brought a top bid of $6,000, and I had it on the consigner's authority afterward that it wouldn't have taken much more to meet the reserve.

There Goes Molly, a May 2 foal, now has a win and three other placings from 11 starts -- many of them in decent company at Saratoga and Belmont last summer and fall -- for $31,236.

She becomes the 72nd winner from my 187-member Sales Tip Class of 2010; that's 38.5 percent.

Though the link needs some updating, you can follow along with the class, and a handful of horses I took a stand against, at this link.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Captain promoted in first skirmish

It was far from a fearful trip at Keeneland Wednesday when Captain My Captain led every step of the race and won by a length to break maiden in his career debut.

I selected the gelding from last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. February auction of select 2-year-olds in training. He sold there for $85,000 as Hip 7 to the noted Dogwood Stable, who have taken their time with the horse. But he was clearly ready to fire for trainer George Weaver and red-hot jockey Javier Castellano. Captain My Captain's last drill prior to Wednesday's start was clocked in 46-flat, from the gate, not just the fastest time of 86 horses to work four furlongs on that date at Keeneland, but fastest by a second and two-fifths.

The son of Officer-Purer Than Pure, by Turkoman, on Wednesday set fractions of 22.19, 45.87 and 1:10.99 over the Keeneland Polytrack, and stopped the clock at the wire of the 6.5-furlong test in 1:17.58. He was sent off at a shade over 6/1 and paid $14.20 to win.

Captain My Captain -- who was a $95,000 weanling but a $55,000 RNA as a yearling -- was bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, Louis Brooks Ranch, and Serengeti Stable LC, et. al. I liked him on pedigree even before he breezed a sharp 10.1 at OBSFEB -- more than a month prior to his actual second birthday, as an April 6 foal. While his dam's production has dwindled of late, her prior foals include seven winners from 10 foals (all to race), and three of those winners have earned black type, including G3 victor PURELY COZZENE, stakes winner and G1-placed ERICA'S SMILE, and stakes-placed Forestry Prince.

He becomes the 71st winner from my 187-member sales-tip Class of 2010; that rounds up to 38 percent of all selections.

Though the link needs a little updating, you can follow the class here.