Saturday, December 11, 2010

Winner 44 was 'Lookin' better by the race

Consistent improvement and persistent effort finally paid off for Lookin At Options, as the 2-year-old colt wore down the leader and won by a head Saturday at Philadelphia Park, becoming the 44th of my 187 juvenile sales picks of 2010 to break his maiden.

After a rough debut effort among maiden special weight competition, Lookin At Options was dropped to maiden-claiming $25,000 by trainer Uriah St. Lewis, and progressively improved from fourth, to an impeded third, to second, and now the winner's circle. On this day, the colt who had previously shown his best run late, was ridden along early by jockey Gary Wales to stay closer to a blistering pace of 21.86/45.57, then was forced to loop the field wide on the turn. Just when it looked as though front-runner Sharp Pick and Eriluis Vaz might coast home with the win, Lookin At Options rallied down the center of the track, just getting up at the wire.

The chestnut colt covered six furlongs in 1:11.73.

Lookin At Options (Soto-Good Forecast, by Caveat) was bred in Kentucky by Highclere, and is owned by Trin-Brook Stables Inc. and Bleu Max Stable.

I shortlisted him for a client at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training this May, where I was tasked to identify bargain runners with promise. Consigned by agent Randy Miles and catalogued as Hip 163, Lookin At Options sold to St. Lewis for just $8,500.

I considered the horse a "Priority 4" option, among a trio who were the lowest-rated on our bidding list. I actually liked a lot about him, including an 11-flat breeze that was fair for the sale. But I detracted for evidence of a past shin problem (which Miles said was healed, and appears to be), some niggling conformation issues (including one crack in a hoof), and a spotty produce record by his minor stakes-placed dam (five of seven prior foals to race but only three modest winners).

Still, he was muscular, sleek and I was convinced he'd be in our price range if we hadn't already walked away with a horse when his number was called. It's tough to quibble with St. Lewis' buying the boy for $8,500, now that he has a win, place and show from five starts (and I still say he got screwed out of second-money last-out), and has earned $27,360. The 1:11.73 time for 6f isn't all that bad, either, and the colt's penchant for laying back and closing late -- coupled with a dam by Caveat, a Belmont Stakes winner -- suggests to me he might remain stay competitive or keep improving as he matures and the races get longer.

With winner No. 44, the sales-tip class now has 23.5 percent winners from all 187 selections, and 39.3 percent of the 112 to have made at least one start. Through early evening action worldwide Saturday, the group has won 61 of 402 starts, for a strike rate of 15.2 percent. They have placed 74 times and come in third 45 more, for an in-the-money rate of 44.8 percent.

Combined earnings have reached $3,156,676, which is $7,852 per start and $28,185 per starter.

Follow the 187 sales-picks, and a handful of pans (two of whom make their debuts Sunday) in at following link.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Winner 43 a Pretty Tune to my ears

She didn't take the most direct and decisive path to the winner's circle -- neither on this day nor so far in her career -- but 2010 sales-tip filly Pretty Tune broke maiden at Philadelphia Park Tuesday in her seventh lifetime start.

The filly debuted unsuccessfully on July 8 among maiden special weight company at Calder Race Course in Florida, the state of her foaling. She then was whisked all the way north to Saratoga, where she made two unplaced starts on grass in August during the East Coast's marquee race meeting of the summer. All three of those starts were with Timothy Ritvo as the trainer of record.

Shifted to the barn of Donald R. White, Pretty Tune next appeared at Delaware Park on Oct. 12. Thirteen days later, now part of the Michael P. Petro string and with Nicholas Petro in the irons, she ran against at Delaware Park. Start No. 6 also was under the care of Petro, this time with Richard Bracho up, in a race at Philadelphia Park.

Back in the hands of White as her trainer of record, and with apprentice rider Kristina McManigell now in the irons, Pretty Tune was sent off at about 9/2 on Tuesday in the field of nine $12,500 claimers. She broke on top from Post 9, but after three furlongs of the five-and-a-half-panel event, she'd slipped to a close third behind Under the Sea (3/1) and Ali Bint Dumaani(11/1).

McManigell and Pretty Tune were hung on the outside -- and drifted even wider on the turn, all the way out to the middle of the track as it appeared the filly was tiring and losing ground. But just when it looked as though she'd given up her chance to win, Under the Sea caved (eventually finishing fifth) and Pretty Tune dug down for McManigell, reeling-in a tiring Ali Bint Dumaani inch by inch. The two hit the wire together, and Pretty Tune was declared the winner by a head in a photo that seemed even closer than that.

The 5/2 favorite, Hope to Win, showed little and finished next-to-last.

As noted, Pretty Tune is a Florida-bred, the product of a mating by Ocala Stud and William V. Terrill. She is owned by Terrill's Our Sugar Bear Stable.

I tipped the daughter of Concorde's Tune-Uppa Hughie, by Secret Prince, prior to her going through the ring as Hip 620 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. Bruce Brown made the top bid of $37,000 on behalf of Terrill, essentially divesting Ocala Stud's share in the filly and giving her other co-breeder full ownership.

In a similar situation, Terrill gained sole ownership this season of a colt he co-bred with Ocala Stud, Pretty Tune's fellow sales-tip GOURMET DINNER, for whom he had to bid $40K, but who has now has won four of five lifetime starts, three stakes including the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, and banked $809,660.

Terrill likely won't make out nearly so well with this filly as with Gourmet Dinner, but she becomes the third winner from five matings between Concorde's Tune and her dam, including stakes-winning full sister OUR TUNE. Uppa Hughie, who cracked $117K in earnings despite only one win from 30 starts and no stakes performances, also produced SECRET FLAG, a non-blacktype winner in the States, but champion miler, stayer and older horse once sent to the Dominican Republic, where he won 32 races between the ages of 4 and 7.

The win gives Pretty Tune $18,747 in earnings from seven starts, which include a pair of third-place finishes at Delaware and Philly.

It also makes her the 43rd to break maiden from the 187 juveniles I selected on this blog out of several 2-year-old sales this spring. With 112 starters so far, 59.9 percent of the tips have managed to make a start at age 2, with 23 percent winners from all selections and 38.4 percent winners from those to race.

The 43 winners have won 60 of 395 combined starts (15.2 percent) with another 73 places and 45 shows, for an in-the-money rate of 45.1 percent. They have earned $3,132,634, which averages to $7,931 per start, and $27,970 per starter.

Follow all the sales-picks (and a few pans) at this former post.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Z Breeze wafts winner list back to 42

Z Breeze blew to victory in gate-to-wire fashion Saturday at Calder Race Course in Florida, becoming the 42nd official winner from my 187 recommended horses out of selected juvenile sales of 2010.

The class already had reached 42 winners before Cal-based runner Benecia was disqualified weeks later from a Fairplex win in September for having failed a drug test.

The fifth-time starter was sent off as the favorite at slightly higher than even money. He broke on top from the 5-post, quickly secured the lead by setting sensible fractions of 23.37 and 47.70 while racing off the rail, and widened in the stretch. A pair of 10/1 shots finished second and third, Sorrowful Jones by 3 1/4 lengths and Trump Card beaten 10 1/4.

Z Breeze is owned by GZS Stable LLC and trained by William White. He was ridden to victory by Manoel Cruz.

The chestnut colt by Storm Boot-Raria, by Rahy, was bred in Kentucky by Mrs. James B. Moseley. I recommended him when he was catalogued as Hip 316 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. He sold for $48,000 after running a very brisk, 10-flat eighth-mile.

I liked him, beyond the breeze, because he has a pair of full brothers who have earned six-figures apiece, albeit without scoring blacktype. (And it's worth noting a full sister didn't race at all.) Still, he looked the part, breezed the part, and though it took a drop to maiden-claiming $25,000, he's now played the part of a winner.

With win and a placing from five starts, Z Breeze has earned $12,371. He runs the sales-tip class (through Saturday's action) to 42 winners of 59 races, from 390 starts. That's a strike rate of 15.1 percent, 22.5 percent winners from the total of 187 sales selections, and 37.8 percent winners from the 111 to have made at least one start.

Class earnings have reached $3,111,614, which rounds off to averages of $7,978 per start, and $28,033 per starter.

Follow the 187-member class in its entirety, plus a few purchases for which I didn't so much care, at this prior post.

Friday, December 3, 2010

Gibson Home Run connects again

Hustled to the front by Patrick Valenzuela, Gibson Home Run shook clear of favorite Sammy Choi soon out of the gate and touched every base in first place on his way to victory Friday at Hollywood Park.

Gibson Home Run set fractions of 22.45, 45.87 and 58.02 for five furlongs, leading by two and a half to three lengths at each point of call. Valenzeula lost the whip inside the eighth-pole, but certainly didn't need it, as Sammy Choi caved coming off the turn and Gibson Home Run had no difficulty holding off previously stakes-placed Edgewick Road by three and a quarter at the wire in a hand-ride.

Worth noting, Edgewick Road made his 10th lifetime start Friday, a busy juvenile campaign.

Gibson Home Run paid $4.40, $3 and $3.80 as the second choice at slightly higher than even money. Sammy Choi was sent off at a bit of a short price, while Edgewick Road was nearly 9/1 and third-place Leon Ayala, who edged the favorite by a neck, was nearly 17/1.

The $25,000 claiming win is the third circuit-clout in five at-bats for Gibson Home Run, who runs his career earnings to $42,500. He is owned by Gary Barber, Roger Birnbaum and Kevin Tsujihara, and was trained for the win by Peter Miller.

Gibson Home Run, a bay colt by Gibson County-Tanja, by Allen's Prospect, was bred in Florida by McKathan Bros. I tabbed him among the 187 horses I recommended from this year's juvenile sales when he was catalogued as Hip 546 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. But his connections were able to land him for just $30,000 at the sale despite a blazing 9 4/5 eighth-mile drill.

Having lost a winner (with the post-race disqualification of Benecia from a September win at Fairplex), the list of maiden-breakers from that 187-member sales class stands at 41.

They've won 58 of 384 starts (15.1 percent), with another 72 seconds and 43 thirds, for an in-the-money rate of 45 percent. Their combined earnings are $3,099,271, which averages to $8,071 per start.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Drat: Winners list now minus 1

I keep pretty close tabs on the 187 horses I selected at this year's 2-year-old sales. But I'd missed this development.

The sales-tip class' 30th winner, Benecia, who broke maiden by more than five lengths at Fairplex on Sept. 26, was subsequently disqualified from that victory due to a positive test for a banned medication.

This came to my attention when I received a final entry notification for the filly in a race at Hollywood Park on Friday; a maiden special weight.

A post-race urine sample tested by the University of California's Maddy Analytical Laboratory came back positive for Indomethacin, a Class 3 nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory. Her victory and earnings were stripped, and both trainer Mike Pender and jockey Martin Pedroza were ordered to return their earnings from the race to the Hollywood Park paymaster of purses by Dec. 13.

Benecia had already raced once among winners after her now-overturned maiden-breaker and before the disqualification, placing third in a $40,000 starter allowance on Oct. 15 at Hollywood Park.

Official winner of that September Fairplex race is now Sly Kitty.

Benecia's record (now 0-0-1 from three starts) and earnings ($3,920) have been adjusted in the comprehensive list of sales tips and their performance. I have neither energy nor inclination to go back and correct all calculations of the class' combined record and earnings in every post since the DQ.