Fugue for Tinhorns

Spring Jump collects second stakes placing

2011-10-15T12:36:00.005-04:00

Spring Jump and Fredy Peltroche chased short-price favorite and eventual winner Moonlit Malibu and Travis Dunkelberger all the way around the track but could never quite catch her Friday night as the pair comprised the exacta in the $50,000 HBPA Municipalities Handicap at Charles Town.

Moonlit Malibu won the two-turn, seven furlong test by a length and a half in 1:25.62, her first stakes victory despite hitting the board four times in stakes company at Aqueduct, Belmont, Monmouth and Charles Town. The place-finish was the second among stakes company for Spring Jump, who was second to Red's Round Table in Delaware Park's White Clay Creek Stakes at 2.

I shortlisted Spring Jump, a dark bay filly by Jump Start-Meg's Answer, by West Acre, on a 48-horse list of prospects for a bargain-minded client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training. She sold there for just $19,000 as Hip 234 and now has three wins and four other on-the-board finishes from a dozen starts for $90,843.

SPring Jump was bred in Florida by Jeanne H. and Jerry M. Cutrona Sr., is owned by Dorado Circle Stables LLC, and is trained by Flint Stites.

You can follow those 48 (28 of whom now are winners, including four stakes-placers), plus the remainder of my 187-horse list of 2-year-old prospects of 2010, by clicking here.

Notice Served: Signal Alert is back with stakes win

2011-10-10T18:53:00.001-04:00

After several races in a row of settling for minor shares behind a stablemate, SIGNAL ALERT turned the tables on Readbetweendlines on Sept. 24 at Santa Rosa Park in Trinidad, winning the Gallery Diamond Stakes by a short head.

Signal Alert covered 1,350 meters in 1:20.2 for his fifth win in eight lifetime starts. A track record-holder at Santa Rosa (1,300m in 1:15.90), Signal Alert has now banked about $49,332 in U.S. equivalent.

I recommended the horse as Hip 465 at the 2010 Ocala April sale, where he brought $35,000 from Glenn Mendez, trainer for Junior Sammy's Errol Stable. Signal Alert won a juvenile trophy race named in honor of Sammy as a 2-year-old and was third behind multiple-Trinidad and Tobago champion Bruceontheloose and Readbetweendlines in the G2 Santa Rosa Dash earlier this year.

Click here to follow the worldwide exploits of my 187-member juvenile sales-selection class of 2010.

List of wins declines by one; another post-race DQ

2011-10-10T18:46:00.004-04:00

So, just this evening I learn that one of my 187-member sales-tip class of 2010 has lost his maiden-breaking victory -- although unlike the last time, I didn't drop him to the ranks of the non-winners.

I'm First (Soto-Ladies First, by El Ragaas) broke maiden on July 7 in the lower claiming ranks on turf at Colonial Downs. He backed up that victory win a win in his next start on July 20, again for a tag at Colonial.

Today I find -- after a last-place finish on grass in allowance company at Laurel -- that the horse's record has just one win from 10 starts, rather than two, and his lifetime earnings have been reduced to $8,652. The chart from his formerly maiden-breaking win now states that he was disqualified to 10th and last due to failing a post-race test.

I'm First is owned by B and B Racing Stable LLC and is trained by Susan S. Cooney.

The same thing happened a year ago to Benecia, who broke maiden in September 2010 at Fairplex only to have that win stripped many weeks later, after she'd already run (and placed) among winners. A year later almost to the day, Benecia (re)-cleared that maiden hurdle, right back at the Fairplex meet.

When this test came back positive for I'm First, I couldn't exactly say, but he's run three more times among winners after his (apparent) NW2L win July 20 and this is the first I've noticed it.

I do understand that testing "A" and "B" samples takes time, but it seems the turnaround on these matters isn't altogether speedy.

Makes me wonder if another month from now I'm going to see the horse's other "First" changed to last.

Click here to see the updated race-records of all 187 horses I selected from last year's juvenile sales.

No great shock: Surprise Strike wins at 7/5 odds

2011-10-09T18:29:00.004-04:00

It took him seven starts to break through to the winner's circle, but Surprise Strike has now had his picture snapped after two races in a row after winning handily Saturday in allowance company at Finger Lakes.

The Jeremiah Englehart trainee nearly broke his maiden at first asking last year at Presque Isle Downs, then was sent to Woodbine and Saratoga several times before winning his last out back among maiden special weight company at PID. On Saturday, he covered six furlongs in 1:11.34 under the guidance of Wilfredo Rohena to win by an easy 5 3/4 lengths over 6/5 favorite Il Vagabondo in a non-winners of two lifetime test at Finger Lakes. It was another 6 1/4 back to third-place Suave Fox.

Surprise Strike was bred in Kentucky by Duzee Stable. He has now earned $68,029 for owner Orlando Dirienzo from eight lifetime starts.

I shortlisted the bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Unbridled Femme, by Unbridled, as a Priority 2 prospect for a client seeking a bargain runner out of the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md. The horse failed to sell at a top bid of $34,000 as Hip 380, but he has the look of one that's worth having.

Click here to see all 187 of my 2010 sales selections.

Thursday winners at Laurel, Remington for my 2010 sales-tip class and the same Kentucky breeder

2011-10-09T17:54:00.007-04:00

The margins were slight, but it's the winning that counts, and a pair of my selected graduates from 2010 juvenile sales made it a 2-for-2 day with victories Thursday at Maryland's Laurel Park and Oklahoma's Remington Park.

Captain My Captain -- a first-out maiden-special winner at Keeneland earlier this year -- finally garnered his second lifetime win from five starts with a gutsy effort Thursday afternoon for a $25,000 tag at Laurel. After sundown, Dangerous Ghost collected her third win from 11 starts in a turf-claimer at Remington for that same tag, $25,000.

The winners also were both bred wholly or in part by Kentucky's White Fox Farm.

Sent off as the slight favorite at about 6/5, Captain My Captain and rider J.D. Acosta stalked second-favored Leap of Will (3/2) and Kendrick Carmouche through early fractions of 22.52 and 45.91. Captain My Captain was briefly relegated to third place as Houston Bull under Forest Boyce stuck his head in front of the eventual winner in the stretch, but Captain My Captain rallied to beat that rival by a nose, with Leap of Will fading to third in the shadow of the wire.

Owned by Dogwood Stable and trained by George Weaver, Captain My Captain was bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, Louis Brooks Ranch, and Serengeti Stable LC, et. al. He's now earned $44,980.

I tipped the now-gelded son of Officer-Purer Than Pure, by Turkoman, as Hip 7 at the 2010 OBS February sale, where Dogwood purchased him for $85,000. He still has some work to do in earning that back.

Thursday night, a much less expensive filly continued rewarding the owners who invested in her at two different sales last year.

Dangerous Ghost and Dean Butler stalked 5/2 favorite Red Lion Heart and Lindey Wade through sharp early fractions of 21.55 and 44.73 on a speed-favoring Remington turf course. The lead pair was briefly joined by Miss Silver Ridge and David Cardoso in mid-stretch, but that one couldn't keep pace. Then Cliff Berry and Just Maid tried to close on the outside, but couldn't quite get there.

It was Dangerous Ghost who prevailed between Red Lion Heart and Just Maid, who finished a neck and a head back for the trifecta. Miss Silver Ridge was only another neck back in fourth, with White Chiffon a length back in fifth.

Final time for five furlongs on the turf was 57.17.

Dangerous Ghost was also bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, giving that breeder a bit of a sales-tip double, as well. She is owned by Al and Bill Ulwelling, the later of whom came down from Minnesota with his wife and kids to see this win and a couple of others at Remington over the weekend. She is trained by Michael Biehler.

The Ulwellings bought Dangerous Ghost for $28,000 out of the OBS June sale in 2010, after she was pinhooked back into that auction by Nickajack Farms, which bought her for a mere $12,000 as Hip 1205 at OBS April. I tipped her from that April sale and have to say that she's worked out well for all involved. The April buyer flipped her for $28,000 two months after buying her for $12,000, and the Ulwellings have three win photos (races on fast dirt, mud and turf), three seconds and a third with $41,115 in earnings from 11 starts.

Click here and scroll to view the updated statistics of all 187 sales selections I made from 2010.

Code Dancer hustles to third lifetime win

2011-10-03T20:59:00.004-04:00

Under pressure almost throughout, Code Dancer didn't wilt in the shadow of the wire at Presque Isle Downs Friday night, hanging on for a neck victory that was his third lifetime win from eight starts.

Sent off as the narrow 7/2 favorite under Arienne Cox, Code Dancer set opening fractions of 22.84 and 45.94 with essentially the co-favorite Indian Empire and Scott Spieth (also about 7/2) running right at his throat latch. As 7.5/1 longer-shot Young Troubador closed under Ronald Allen Jr., Indian Empire was steadied between his rivals and settled for third with the closer missing by a neck to Code Dancer.

The winner was bred in Florida by Brambly Lane Farm. He is owned and trained by Clyde D. Rice. The horse scored for a $40,000 tag in his debut at Presque Isle at 2 and has won two of his last three starts as a 3-year-old, this time for a $7,500 tag, earning a total of $38,332.

I tipped the bay gelding by Omega Code-Jocey's Dance, by Seattle Dancer, out of last year's Ocala April sale, where he failed to meet reserve as Hip 1187 on a meager bid of $13,000. The horse breezed a fleet 21.1 and came "pre-gelded to save you the trouble," I wrote. His female family has shown the kind of durability the breed could use these days, with his dam being half-sister to 21-victory millionaire GRECIAN FLIGHT (Acorn S.-G1), 16-race winner GRECIAN COMEDY (granddam of BULLSBAY-G1) and 16-time winner EVZONE.

"Businesslike racetrack family," I concluded.

Click here to follow the exploits of all 187 of my 2010 juvenile sales selections.

Maiden has last word at Monmouth

2011-10-03T20:16:00.003-04:00

After Words didn't disappoint as the favorite in the mud at Monmouth Saturday, assuming the lead after a half run in 46.32 and holding off second-favored Delicate Genius in the stretch to break her maiden by a length and a quarter.

Final time for a muddy six furlongs by $10,000 maiden-claimers was 1:12.78. Pedro Cotto Jr. was the winning pilot for owner Nick of Time Stable and trainer Teresa Pompay. The filly has a win and three other in-the-money finishes from six lifetime starts for $23,410.

After Words was bred in Maryland by Bowman & Higgins Stable, Thomas Sutton and Anthony W. Dutrow. I pegged the dark bay daughter of Kafwain-Potomac Bend, by Polish Numbers as a Priority 3 prospect on a 48-horse shortlist for a bargain-minded client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. She failed to sell there as Hip 281 when the $30,000 top bid failed to meet consignor Cary Frommer's reserve price.

I liked that the filly breezed a fairly quick (for this sale) 10.4 and showed good extension in her stride. She also had two multiple-winners and a juvenile stakes-placer (who never broke maiden) among her elder siblings -- another has broken maiden since -- and her dam was a G3 winner. I was less pleased by what I thought were longer and more upright pasterns, hence the relative downgrade to Priority 3.

With the victory, After Words becomes the 28th maiden-breaker from that 48-horse EASMAY shortlist; that's 58.3 percent winners from a group of prospects that sold for an average of less than $24,000 -- a price about half of the sale average.

She is the 113th to break maiden from my overall list of 187 juvenile sales prospects of 2010. That pushes the maiden-breaker mark above 60 percent overall.

Click here to follow the updated stats of all 187 horses.

Tricky Break new winner in head-knocker at Calder

2011-09-30T18:39:00.004-04:00

When a bay son of Sunday Break crossed the wire first by a neck in Race 3 at Calder Thursday, there was nothing "tricky" about it. The effort was sheer willpower.

That horse, Tricky Break, has apparently overcome a lot to reach the winner's circle for the first time in his life. The latest test was the final sixteenth of that $16,000 maiden-claiming event on Thursday afternoon, when favored Country Home came charging down the lane and erased a length-and-a-half deficit, but Tricky Break refused to lose.

I tipped Tricky Break out of last year's OBS April sale, when he was bought by Robert Smith -- who trains him today -- for a mere $6,500. Through a seemingly well-informed grapevine I learned that the horse had a physical issue that needed addressing and would keep him from being resold in this case and returned to New York, the state of his foaling.

Tricky Break went to the track in Florida instead and his 2-year-old and early 3-year-old results were poor -- seven starts at Calder and Tampa, no finish better than fifth.

Laid-off from February to July this year, I began to doubt that Tricky Break would return to the races at all, let alone crack the ranks of the winners. But he made a comeback on grass at Colonial Downs, where under the care of conditioner Patrick Schmid and running in cheap claiming company, he hit the board in his third start off the layoff (and first in 10 lifetime starts), finishing third.

Sent back to Calder and the barn of Smith, Tricky Break finished a clear-cut second on Sept. 1, then second again by only a half (with a nose advantage over third in a three-horse photo) in a determined performance at the $12,500 level on Sept. 15.

Maybe there was hope after all.

Smith certainly thought so, and stepped the gelding up in class again Thursday, all the way to the $16,000 level, (relative) heights Tricky Break hadn't seen since his debut at "Maiden 20" on Oct. 17, 2010.

The horse didn't let him (or me) down.

Tricky Break and rider David Boraco pressed leader Sir Philip in the early going, took over the lead after a half-mile, then slogged home in the rain over a sealed track, refusing to relinquish the advantage although Country Home (himself now second three times in a row) had reduced the margin to all but nothing. Tricky Break stopped the timer in 1:42.65 for a mile, won by a neck, and made me almost as proud as some of the stakes winners on my sales-tip list.

Just as some horses might have done on Thursday when the favorite came charging at them in the stretch, this horse could have quit a long time ago, but he didn't.

For the record, Tricky Break was (as aforementioned) bred in the state of New York, by Thomas-Narlinger LLC and Dennis Repp. His ownership at present is listed as "Smith, Drake and George, Richard Kingston." He has earned $13,714 from a win, two places and a show in 13 lifetime starts.

I selected Tricky Break from that Ocala sale because I was pretty sure he would be inexpensive (I was right about that beyond doubt) and equally certain he'd make a racehorse someday, for somebody. After all, his dam, TRICKY MOVE (Tricky Creek-Sensitive Annie, by Sensitive Prince), won a pair of stakes races and earned $112,956. And, she's produced several winners, including the curious stakes pair MULTIPLICATION (who died of a heart attack while breezing shortly after winning the Mike Lee Stakes at Belmont in his fourth lifetime start) and SNEAKIN UP (who broke maiden in a stakes race at 2 and hasn't won since, with 24 lifetime tries).

I'd still like to see Tricky Break move back home to New York, because his earnings potential should be higher among state-breds in that lucrative jurisdiction. But he's already added a win (and a big grin) to my sales-pick list by breaking through, even if it was among fairly modest company at Calder.

With the victory, Tricky Break becomes the 112th winner among my 187 juvenile sales selections of 2010; that's precariously close to six-in-ten at 59.9 percent.

Click here to see the stats of all 187, plus a few horses I went against.

Bessie M gets elusive stakes trophy

2011-09-28T19:07:00.001-04:00

Two starts after settling for second by a desperate head in stakes company at Calder Race Course, BESSIE M assured her name will appear in all-caps on catalog pages for decades to come by taking the Dolly Jo Stakes at Calder on Sunday by a comfortable 2 1/4 lengths.

The 3-year-old filly by Medallist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat, has proved to be a fantastic claim by Platinum Equestrian Corp. and trainer Antonio Sano. After taking her for $25,000 from a NW2L claiming event at Gulfstream in January, Bessie M's new connections have never seen her finish off the board. After a third and a second-place finish, she posted back-to-back wins for them at Calder in April and May, then hit the board in the Regal Gal Stakes (third) and Leave Me Alone Stakes (second a head) before winning in optional-claiming company her last out at Calder, on Aug. 20.

On Sunday, Bessie M and Daniel Centeno rated in fifth, 6 1/2 lengths off a blistering 21.13 opening quarter set by Orlando Bocachica and Afleet Lass, then blew by the rest of the field and wore down the game leader in the stretch to draw clear by the wire. Max Speed and Juan Leyva finished third by 6 1/4 lengths. Final time for six furlongs was 1:10.81.

Bessie M was bred in Maryland by Mr. & Mrs. Charles McGinnes, and I had hoped her connections might prep her for the $100,000 Maryland Million Distaff at seven furlongs this coming weekend at Laurel. No complaints, however, about her scoring a stakes win, wherever it might be.

I shortlisted Bessie M as a Priority 2 prospect for a bargain-seeking client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. She sold to William H. Harris for $35,000 as Hip 59 and presented him with a win photo from a dead-heat victory at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old. Harris would lose her on that January day at Gulfstream for $25,000, and Platinum Equestrian has been well-rewarded for its claim ever since.

I actually questioned the price Harris paid at the sale, but then again, we were there looking to buy a horse for even less than $35,000 -- which was already at least 25 percent below the sale average. But I stated here that: "This girl oughta be a decent racehorse for someone (though) she only rated Priority 2 status for me primarily because of the very slow start by her sophomore sire, who has just 10 winners so far from his freshman crop of 59 foals. ... (It) was hard to deny the fleetness of her 22 2/5 quarter over a slow track."

With the stakes score, Bessie M becomes the first stakes-winner from that bargain-basement list of 48 horses, whose average bid (sold or RNA) at the sale was under $24,000 and less than half the sale average. She is among four horses stakes-placed or better from that group of 48.

Bibblesman, who sold for $22,000 as Hip 337, has two wins and placed second in the Peppy Addy Stakes at Parx for $90,860. Spring Jump, a $19,000 purchase as Hip 234, is 3-for-11 with a second-place finish in the White Clay Creek Stakes at Delaware Park as a 2-year-old, for $80,700.

The real tragedy from the group is Rough Sailing, a $40,000 buy as Hip 250, who broke maiden on Arlington's grass at first asking and was second in the Arlington-Washington Futurity-G3 for $37,534, but slipped entering the first turn of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was euthanized after breaking his shoulder in the fall.

Of the 48 bargain prospects, there are 43 starters (89.6 percent), 25 winners (52.1 percent) and 13 multiple-winners (27.1 percent).

Click here to follow all 187 sales selections, plus a few I went against.

Gelding with fine family wins in style at Seoul

2011-09-27T18:50:00.003-04:00

When Hidden Lake Farm LLC and Gary F. Mottola bred Shannon Memories in New York, they probably had visions of the blue-blood colt drawing off to win in the stretch at Belmont Park or Saratoga.

Seoul, Korea, probably never crossed their minds.

But on Sunday at Seoul, the now-gelded chestnut son of Yes It's True-Charleston, by High Yield, trained by Hong Dae You and ridden by Park Tae Jong, hammered a Class IV field by eight lengths to clear the maiden hurdle in his fourth lifetime start. He's earned about $22,234 since being shipped to Korea in October at age 2 after failing to sell on a $32,000 top bid at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training at Timonium, Md.

I shortlisted the prospect at that May Maryland sale on a 48-horse list prepared for a bargain-seeking client. I listed Hip 66, the Yes It's True-Charleston colt, as a Priority 2 prospect based on his dam's status as a half-sister to G3 millionaire WEST VIRGINIA, and despite a topline that dipped rather more than I'd like and a 23-flat breeze that wasn't awe-inspiring.

Despite some flaws, the horse was athletic, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the winner's circle again at Seoul, particularly after an eight-length score.

With the win, Shannon Memories becomes the 111th prospect to break maiden from the 187 I recommended on this blog from selected 2-year-old sales of 2010. That's 59.4 percent.

Click here and scroll to view their updated stats.

'Silver' filly 'Speeds' to first win through Laurel muck

2011-09-26T18:54:00.006-04:00

Silver Speed overcame a sloppy track and a slow early pace that might have discouraged many closers to log her first lifetime win in the maiden-claiming ranks on Saturday at Laurel Park.

Next Level and rider Gerry Bacchas had it all their way in the early going, building a five-length margin through an opening quarter run in 24.33 and extending the advantage to seven lengths over Silver Speed and Sarah Rook in a half-mile covered in 48.17.

Though Silver Speed took the four-path on the turn for home and never switched from her left lead in the stretch, she not only overtook a tiring Next Level but maintained enough momentum to hold off 5/2 shot All About Her and Richard Monterrey by a half-length at the wire. Race-favorite Nightswimming, also sent off at about 5/2, finished fourth under Malcom Franklin. Final time for the muddy mile was 1:41.22.

Silver Speed, a gray or roan filly by Suave out of the Miesque's Son mare Boggs Eyes was bred in New York (where she's never run) by Hidden Point Farm Inc. She is owned by Glen Mar LLC and trained by Jessica Campitelli. With her win for a $16,000 tag on Saturday, the filly has a victory and a second-place finish from five lifetime starts for $13,674.

I recommended Silver Speed prior to her selling for $60,000 as Hip 812 at the 2010 OBS April sale of 2-year-olds in training. I thought the New York-bred "made 33 3/5 for three furlongs look easy, convincing me to ignore the freshman sire." Her dam was a minor Arlington stakes winner who produced a stakes-placer in Behavioral Finance, and the second dam won 10 times, four in stakes company, and produced 15-win stakes-mare TORCH, in turn dam of 20-race winner MORINE'S VICTORY.

Silver Speed became the 110th runner to break maiden off my 187-horse list of 2010 juvenile prospects; that was (temporarily) 58.8 percent of all to race.

Click here and scroll to see their updated stats.

A year later, Benecia wins again, for the first time

2011-09-26T18:27:00.005-04:00

A filly who in her second lifetime start became the 30th of my 187 juvenile sales selections to break her maiden -- but lost the win to a post-race drug screen -- has done so again nearly a year later, at the scene of her prior victory.

Benecia is now officially (barring another drug screen, I suppose), the 109th winner of that 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010. She scored last Thursday (Sept. 22, 2011) at Fairplex for the same connections that put her in the winner's circle there on Sept. 26, 2010, trainer Michael Pender, jockey Martin Pedroza and owners Robin Christensen, Michael Hudok, Jim Murray and MVP Racing Stable.

Sent off as the second-favorite Thursday at about 7/5 odds, Benecia "inhaled" race-favorite and leader Miss Mystic in the stretch to win by a widening 3 1/2 lengths. Energia Solaria at 47/1 sneaked into the exacta as the even-money favorite faded. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on the bullring was 1:20.34.

Benecia (More Than Ready-Empty Portrait, by Coronado's Quest) was bred in Kentucky by Fares Farms LLC. She has now posted a win and a third-place finish (in starter-allowance company before being stripped of her prior victory) from eight starts, for $15,070.

I tabbed the dark bay filly as one of my top, mostly bargain-minded prospects from Ocala's April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where she sold for $30,000 as Hip 998. "This filly breezed 10.2 and looked pretty fair doing it," I wrote then. Her dam "wasn't much of a runner," but her second dam was the G3-winning ILLERIA who produced seven stakes horses, including, well, INCLUDE, MAGIC BROAD, ENCAUSTIC, MAGICAL BROAD, Implicit, Loaded Brush and Invent.

With the 109th winner, the 187-member sales class boasted 58.3 percent winners. But that number soon would change -- this time for the better.

Click here to see them all.

Lady's early speed 'Rewarded' with third victory

2011-09-20T19:21:00.004-04:00

Reward the Lady grabbed the race by the throat and refused to let go Tuesday night at Presque Isle Downs, leading gate to wire on her way to a third lifetime victory.

Sent off as the second favorite at about 7/2 odds, the 3-year-old filly bolted to an early lead under Scott Spieth and got away with sensible fractions of 23.34 and 46.63, chased a length-and-a-half back by 4/5 favorite Draw a Blank, piloted by Robert Allen Jr. As the field straightened for home, Reward the Lady had plenty in reserve to win by a driving 2 1/4 lengths over late-closing 9/1 shot Lady in the Park, with Doublenodouble taking third by a neck over the short-price favorite.

Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta was 1:18.33.

Reward the Lady (Grand Reward-You're a Lady, by Youmadeyourpoint) was bred in Pennsylvania by E&D Enterprises and Grand Reward Syndicate. She is owned by Touchdown Stable and trained by J. Michael Rogers.

I shortlisted the dark bay or brown filly on a 48-horse chart of prospects for a bargain-minded client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. Her dam won a dozen races for about $180,000, including the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper and had produced several winners. Though she wasn't the strongest horse on my list conformationally (hence her "Priority 4" status), Reward the Lady had no major flaws, she breezed a credible 10.4 over a slow Timonium track, and she is from the female family of G3 winner WHERE'S TAYLOR and G1 record-setter PASS THE LINE.

She sold for just $6,000 as the first horse through the ring, Hip 1. With her win Tuesday night, Reward the Lady has three wins, two places and a show from 10 starts for $56,050.

Click here and scroll down to see the records of all 187 sales selections I made in 2010.

Florida filly earns black type at Belmont

2011-09-18T17:47:00.005-04:00

When I used this blog to tip a trio horses from the same (very) immediate family from last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, I expected all three to be successful racehorses. That all are now stakes horses is icing on the cake.

On Sunday at Belmont Park, Decennial was second-favored at 3-1 had a chance to win the Queen Tutta Stakes on the turf, but was out-kicked in the stretch and settled for third place. It was the Florida-bred filly's sixth on-the-board finish in seven starts on New York lawns, and her first among stakes company. She finished off the board in a stakes race at Saratoga her last out.

Decennial and Ramon Dominguez were well-positioned to win on Sunday, but 5-1 In Step with Jose Lezcano was the best finisher, with 10.5-1 Button Girl and Cornelio Velasquez 3 1/4 behind her and only a neck ahead of Decennial in third. Favored Cascadilla Falls (2-1) could only manage sixth place. Final time for seven furlongs on turf was 1:21.34.

Decennial is owned by Blue Devil Racing Stable and trained by Carlos F. Martin. She was bred in Florida by Ocala Stud. With four wins and two shows from eight starts, all at age 3, (her only dirt effort was unplaced), Decennial has earned $87,500.

I tipped the chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner, as Hip 349 at OBS April, where she sold for just $26,000 despite a 22-flat quarter and her status as a half-sister to stakes winners SEA OF GREEN and LADY GIN.

From that same sale I also selected RIGOLETTA (who sold for $35,000 went on to win the Oak Leaf S.-G1 at 2 and earn $184,070) and GOURMET DINNER (a $40,000 sale who has three stakes wins including the Delta Downs Jackpot-G3 and has banked $989,660).

The dams of those two -- Almost Aprom Queen, by Montbrook, in the first case and Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus, in the latter -- are half-sisters to Decennial. The Sunday stakes-placer and her "nephew," Gourmet Dinner, are bred on the same cross, both being sired by Trippi.

The family trio were purchased for a combined $105,000 and now have 10 wins (four in stakes, including a G1 and a G3), more than $1.25 million in earnings, and two solid broodmare prospects among them.

Decennial becomes the 21st horse stakes-placed or better (20 in black-type races) from my 187-member class of 2010 sales prospect; that's 11.2 percent.

I hope the connections of Decennial keep in mind that she's a Florida-bred and might find some opportunities for her back home in the Sunshine State over the winter.

Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections.

First turf, first win: Ravello Storm follows family lead

2011-09-18T16:56:00.006-04:00

After two unplaced efforts on dirt at Delaware Park, the connections of Ravello Storm sent him to Belmont Park and a date with $20,000 maiden-claimers on the grass.

Sent off at 11-1, the horse won in good style, and perhaps should have been expected to. After all, the son of Stormy Atlantic-Wave On, by Caveat, had five prior turf winners among his elder siblings, including Colonial Turf Cup-G3 and Poker S.-G3 victor SAILOR'S CAP and La Habra Stakes-placed Royal Wave. (Sailor's Cap was one of my favored horses of the past few years, and tragically died of Colitis-X as a 4-year-old.)

On Saturday at Belmont, Ravello Storm was treated by bettors like an outsider in a field that appeared to be wide-open. But unlike his dirt efforts, when Ravello Storm was never really in contention, on this day he bolted to the lead straight from the gate beneath Cornelio Velasquez. Tracked by 5/2 favorite Knockout through tepid opening fractions of 26.25 and 48.41.

Ravello Storm briefly surrendered the lead to 29-1 long-shot Pernice after a quickened six furlongs run in 1:09.90, disposed of that rival by the top of the stretch, then found another gear to discourage all others. He won in 1:44.78 for a mile and a sixteenth, 2 3/4 lengths clear of of Allen's Star.

Ravello Storm is owned by Lee Lewis and trained by Mark Hennig. He was bred in Kentucky by Lanni Bloodstock LLC, John Zolezzi, Westport Management and J. Smithwick. With a win from three starts, he has earned $13,330.

I shortlisted Ravello Storm as a Priority 1 horse when seeking bargain-minded prospects for a client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. The horse breezed 11-flat at a sale where that was at least average, and my biggest complaint about him upon visual inspection at the barn was that he just didn't seem very alert. Run through the ring as Hip 388, the dark bay colt didn't meet his reserve price, but sold privately before leaving the grounds for a reported $35,000.

Ravello Storm becomes the 108th prospect to break maiden from my 187-horse list of 2-year-old prospects in 2010. That's 57.8 percent. Those Maryland prospects from which Ravello Storm emerged as a group cost (or were RNAs) for about half the price of the sales average, but 42 have now started (87.5 percent) and he is the 26th to win (54.2 percent of all EASMAY selections, 61.9 percent of those to race).

Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections.

Cat finally 'Claws' her way to victory

2011-09-18T16:10:00.003-04:00

When Cat Has Claws missed second by a neck in her debut at age 2, about four lengths back from victory among special weights at Arlington, I figured it was only a matter of time before she broke her maiden. And I suppose I was right.

The Illinois-bred filly who I tipped on this blog as a 2-year-old prospect at the sales didn't start again until she was 3. A fourth-place finish among special weights in June sent her into maiden-claiming company. In her second start for a tag, Cat Has Claws finished third again, this time beaten a neck and a nose by Hawk's Girl and Lindseytothemax. She also finished fourth in her most recent start, behind another sales selection of mine, Sea Why.

On Saturday, the filly who likes to get her photo snapped for the placing judges, finally had her picture taken in the winner's circle. Again, after a photo-finish was sorted out for the order of finish.

Sent off (to my great surprise) as the 4/5 favorite, Cat Has Claws was the only filly able to close into the glacial pace set by 34-1 long-shot Bob's Hilda, who got away to a six-length lead despite meandering around the Arlington Park Polytrack in 23.45 and 47.58. Cat Has Claws got up by a nose after a long and determined drive under Jesus Castanon. Lindseytothemax was another three-quarters back in third.

Cat Has Claws is owned by Joseph W. and Betty Woit, and trained by Roger Brueggemann. The bay filly by Harlan's Holiday-Summertime Blues, by Chimes Band, was bred in Illinois by Carson Springs Farm and Scott Goldsher. With a win and two shows from six starts, she has now earned $14,523.

I selected Cat Has Claws as Hip 517 from the 2010 Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. The filly breezed 10.1 and two of her three elder siblings were solid performers: Chillin Villian (Good and Tough) has now won seven of 57 and was stakes-placed among IL-breds at 2 for $172,231; Jitterburg Blues has five wins and 10 seconds from 24 lifetime starts and hit the board in IL-bred stakes company last year at age 5, for $212,741. Though only a modest winner of two races from nine starts, Summertime Blues was a half-sister to nine-time stakes-winner TIC N TIN ($771,570) and two-time Illinois-bred champion PRETTY JENNY ($534,262).

Cat Has Claws failed to sell at OBSAPR when the top bid of $37,000 failed to meet the reserve price set by consignor Wavertree Stables.

With her win Saturday, Cat Has Claws became the 107th prospect to break maiden worldwide from my 187-horse list of sales tips. That's 57.2 percent of all selections, a figure that shortly after would rise.

Click here and scroll down the list to view the records of all 187 selections.

Not much of a surprise, but he finally strikes

2011-09-17T11:37:00.006-04:00

A year and six days after nearly posting a shocking upset in his debut effort at 2, Surprise Strike returned for the third time to Presque Isle Downs and finally broke through for his first lifetime win, this time as the favorite.

Surprise Strike becomes the 106th winner from 187 juveniles I selected on this blog from various auctions in 2010.

On Sept. 10, 2010, the bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Unbridled Femme, by Unbridled, was sent off at 20/1 in maiden special weight company at Presque. Running sixth early, rider Scott Spieth sneaked the horse through on the rail and he rallied to within a half-length of defeating 3/1 second-choice Goodtimehadbyall (who has now earned nearly $158,000).

It was a promising, second-place debut. So promising that Surprise Strike's connections, owner Orlando Dirienzo and trainer Jeremiah Englehart, aimed higher. The horse was sent to Woodbine for his next two starts, where he finished second in a Polytrack route to Bluegrass Dreamer, then fifth in his last effort at 2.

Shelved for the winter, Surprise Strike returned to Presque Isle for his 3-year-old debut on June 29, and was reunited with Spieth. He finished second that day to Phipps Stable's Surreptitiously. Then, it was off to Saratoga, for a pair of unplaced efforts in tough maiden special company on grass.

Back at the scene of his nearest successes, but without his partnership with Spieth renewed (rather, with Paul Nicol Jr. in the irons), Surprise Strike overcame an awkward break to dispose of a maiden special weight field at Presque Isle on Friday evening. He came home a confident two lengths in front at about even money. Spieth came home second aboard Alfarooq.

Surprise Strike was bred in Kentucky by Duzee Stable. He now has a win and three seconds from seven lifetime starts in Dirienzo's colors, for $57,949.

I shortlisted Surprise Strike as a Priority 2 horse on a 48-horse shortlist of prospects for a bargain-minded client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale. While bidding for the horse went higher than we came to spend (a $34,000 RNA), that bid was still more than $10,000 below the sales average.

The horse breezed 23 flat over a slow Timonium track at the Maryland sale, and according to consignor True South LLC he did it after being medicated for throat swelling due to a possible snakebite. His dam was a stakes-winner; his second dam a G3-placer who was by Deputy Minister. And considering my first impression of the front end of the horse as they led him from his stall into the daylight was "Holy ..." I was a bit surprised he didn't bring more than that $34,000 bid in the ring as Hip 380, which wasn't enough to buy him.

Ultimately, I decided Surprise Strike's hindquarters weren't as impressive as his shoulder, neck and chest, but not so much that I wouldn't have wanted him. His pastern angle was good, albeit perhaps just a tad longer than I'd prefer. He looks splendid at speed, though, especially when finishing in front.

With 106 winners, 56.7 percent of my 187 selections now have broken maiden. He is the 25th winner from that 48-horse EASMAY shortlist (52.1 percent), which isn't too bad considering the horses I selected were sold or were RNAs for an average bid that was less than half the sale average. That group happens to include four stakes-placers, bought for an average of $29,000.

I need to update the full records and earnings at home, but I believe the 187-member class has now equaled in earnings -- or nearly so -- the roughly $6.44 million bid on them at the sales. Earnings from the EASMAY class exceeded the approximately $1.13 million bid on them some weeks ago.

Click here and scroll down to view the records of all 187 selections, plus a handful of horses I went against.

Pair clear NW3L condition, continents apart

2011-09-16T18:51:00.000-04:00

Scoring with relative ease, two 3-year-olds from my juvenile sales selections of 2010 garnered their third lifetime victories in races thousands of miles apart.

Lime Rock Revenge scored on Wednesday at Fairplex Park in California. On Friday, Sand Hi stormed home in front at Busan in Korea.

Dropped to the $8,000 level, Lime Rock Revenge won for fun at Fairplex. Lime Rock Revenge and all-time Fairplex leading jockey Martin Pedroza stalked Kayla Stra aboard San Darino through fractions of 22.63 and 47.08 before finishing off the early leader in the stretch to win by 4 1/4 lengths as the 9/5 favorite. San Darino hung on for second. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on the fair meet bullring was 1:17.97.

Bred in Kentucky by A. Clare Silva, Lime Rock Revenge is now owned by S.A.Y. Racing LLC and trained by Doug O'Neill. He won for the third time in eight starts, running his bankroll to $47,564.

I recommended the son of Limehouse-Genie's Flight, by Silver Hawk, out of the 2010 Ocala April sale, where he failed to meet reserve on a bid of $16,000 as Hip 1080.

After missing the break and going largely unasked in his debut at 2 over the synthetic strip last summer at Hollywood Park, O'Neill wheeled Lime Rock Revenge back in four days to break the horse's maiden for a $40,000 tag. Laid-up for the winter, Lime Rock Revenge returned for a $50,000 tag at Santa Anita on Tax Day this year, April 15, and scored impressively, setting withering fractions of 21.23 and 43.70 on his way to finishing on top in 1:15.86 for 6 1/2 furlongs. After a series of fifth- and sixth-place finishes among higher claiming levels on dirt, turf and synth, he was dropped in for the win Wednesday.

On Friday at Busan, Sand Hi won for the third time in 10 Korean starts, running his bank account to a U.S. equivalent of $91,014 for owner Kim Pyung Kap. He scored by a fairly comfortable two lengths in Class III competition, covering 1,400 meters in 1:29.

The bay gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Hay Lauren, by Hay Halo, was on my shortlist of 48 bargain-minded prospects for a client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale in May. He went for $20,000 as Hip 171 to the Korean Racing Authority (KOID), which resells U.S. 2-year-olds at auction to connections in that country.

See the records of all 187 of my juvenile sales selections of 2010.

Consider her included

2011-09-11T00:29:00.005-04:00

I've been remiss in reporting a maiden-breaking win for a member of my 2010 juvenile sales selections, which is particularly surprising considering her name is one that begs for your attention.

Include Me Sir, unplaced in eight prior starts, managed to collect a victory at Delaware Park on Wednesday when what was to be an 11-horse field scratched down to three when the race washed off the turf. She was sent off as the third-favored in the trio, as well, paying $5.80 to win in a race with (obviously) no place or show wagering.

Ricardo Santana Jr. and Include Me Sir pressed the pace set by race-favorite Assignation, nosed in front after three-quarters run in 1:14 and change, then finished the sloppy mile-seventy in 1:45.93. Sweet Somthings was third all the way around.

Include Me Sir was bred in Kentucky by Robert W. Sanford. She is the property of Fairview Enterprises LLC and was trained for the win by Randy Nunley. With a win from nine starts, she has earned $13,635.

I selected Include Me Sir (Include-Sir Harriett, by Sir Harry Lewis) as Hip 444 at Ocala April, where she failed to sell at a $37,000 bid. While that price now appears to have been not enough, yet too much, Include Me Sir has some talent down there somewhere. She breezed 34-flat and had seven winning older siblings from eight foals, including two stakes victors, OVERPASS (Slavic) and SIR FIVE STAR (Five Star Day). I really like her sire, Include, and loved his daddy, Broad Brush.

With the victory, the 187-member sales-tip class now numbers 105 winners, for 56.2 percent.

Click here to see them all.

Sales pair clear NW2L conditions in claimers

2011-09-04T16:25:00.006-04:00

Saturday racing in the States saw a pair of inexpensive 2010 2-year-olds collect their second lifetime wins as 3-year-olds while racing in claiming company at Ellis Park in Kentucky and at Timonium in Maryland.

Lion's Reign was booted home by Roberto Morales in Race 1 at Ellis Saturday, splitting foes in the late-going and scoring by a length over the aptly named Turf Warrior in a first-turf effort for the winner. Final time was a respectable 1:03.93 for $7,500 claimers, and the winner paid $10.80 to his backers, me among them.

I tabbed Lion's Reign among my "steals" of the 2010 Keeneland April sale after the son of Lion Heart-Turtle Creek, by Sky Classic, sold for just $17,000 as Hip 128. The chestnut gelding, bred in Kentucky by Denny Andrews, is now owned by Alan Tennenbaum and trained by Brian Michael.

Lion's Reign has two wins, three seconds and one third from 13 starts for $35,707. He broke maiden Feb. 27 on Polytrack among special weights at Turfway, twice has placed in claiming company on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs, is allowance-placed on dirt at Mountaineer, and has now won on turf at Ellis. ... A versatile, pretty useful racehorse for $17,000.

Later on Saturday, No Biggie collected his second lifetime win, scoring at the Maryland State Fair meeting at Timonium while likewise running in $7,500 claiming company. Sent off as the 7/10 favorite, he lagged the leaders by 10 lengths after a quarter run in just 24.81, but made a four-wide move on the turn to roll by 'em all, winning by 4 1/2 under Sarah Rook in a bullring mile run in 1:43.30.

Bred in Kentucky by Kidder, Cole, Robenalt, and J & J Mamakos, No Biggie is now owned and trained by Carl Doran. I shortlisted the gray gelding by Consolidator-Sixy Chic, by Saratoga Six, on a 48-animal list of bargain-minded prospects for a client at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale at that very track in Timonium. He sold there for just $8,000 as Hip 330. Breaking his maiden on March 17 for a $25,000 tag at Laurel Park, No Biggie now has two wins, a place and a show from eight lifetime starts for $26,960.

Elsewhere, it was a near-miss day for other sales selections of mine. Another EASMAY cheapie, $6,000 Wild Alley Cat, was second in claiming company at Presque Isle Downs in his effort to also clear the NW2L condition. A $75,000 OBSAPR graduate, Herecomeseveryman, was literally beaten a nostril by Repole Stable's Dahess in a maiden-claimer on turf at Saratoga. Two-time winner Sultry Gibson, withdrawn from that EASMAY sale, was second in claiming company at Charles Town. And, an Ocala April RNA who won a Zia Park stakes race at 2, PULGARCITO, was second in allowance company at Canada's Assiniboia Downs.

Click here and scroll down to view all 187 selections.

Sand Kahn another Korean addition to winner list

2011-09-04T15:41:00.004-04:00

Scoring on Saturday at Seoul in his 10th lifetime start, Sand Kahn became the 104th worldwide winner from my 187 sales selections at various juvenile sales in the States.

The Korean Racing Authority Web site is down, so updated earnings for the horse aren't yet available. But with the win and one prior placing, I'm guesstimating his bankroll at between $25,000 and $30,000 U.S.

I shortlisted the colt by Dehere-Population(IRE), by General Assembly for a client seeking a bargain prospect out of last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. The dark bay sold for $20,000 to the KOID, Korea's racing authority, and was exported for resale and racing. He's knocked heads in Class IV competition (races that often include older horses and minor winners) at Korea's premier track, nabbing at best lesser awards until finally getting up for the win on Friday in a 1,300-meter race.

He is at least the 10th winner foaled by his dam, who retired a maiden after six starts. The most notable of her offspring is English Group 1 winner SARATOGA SPRINGS (El Gran Senor).

With 104 maiden-breakers, the 187 selections now have 55.6 winners among their number. Sand Kahn's victory also brings to 50 percent the number of winners out of that 48-horse EASMAY short-list, horses which on average brought bids of less than half the sale average. Among the best from that sale (and among seven of 13 from the 187-horse list to win in Korea) is Viva Ace, a $20,000 purchase who has six wins and three seconds from 10 starts at Busan for about $209,000 U.S.

The KOID is restricted from spending more than $20,000 on a colt and more than $40,000 on a filly at the U.S. sales, though the animals often bring much more than that when resold at auction in Korea.

Click here and scroll down to see all 187 selections.

Hard Rock Candy finally tastes sweet victory

2011-08-29T18:21:00.005-04:00

For eight consecutive starts, Hard Rock Candy had been a hard luck racehorse.

Eight times the filly from my 2010 sales-tip list went to post. Five times, including her first four straight, she came home in second place, and once she missed second by a neck.

June 19, 2010, Calder Race Course, by a length to Greatest Dream, who since has made five stakes starts with a best finish of fourth in the Tropical Park Oaks.
Aug. 1, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by a half-length to future allowance winner Parvenu.
Aug. 29, 2010, Monmouth Park, by 7 1/4 lengths to After Later, who would contest the G1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont in her next out.
Sept. 18, 2010, Philadelphia Park, by 3 1/2 to Floating Dream.
May 31, 2011, Parx Racing, third by 4 to fellow Fugue sales-selection Circumstance, a neck out of second behind race-favorite Deflate the Bubble.
Aug. 1, 2011, Parx Racing, by 1 1/4 to another of my sales selections, Shipwreck Cove.

On Monday, it finally was Hard Rock Candy's turn.

Sent off as the prohibitive favorite among a field of $40K-$35K maiden-claimers at Parx, Hard Rock Candy and Kendrick Carmouche stalked the early leaders through opening fractions of 22.57 and 45.57, then surged in the stretch to gradually draw clear and win the race by a length and a quarter over Lyle's Angel. Final time for 6.5 furlongs over a fast strip was a brisk 1:16.18.

Hard Rock Candy was bred in Florida by Brent Fernung and Crystal Fernung. She is owned by Barbara Armstrong and Gavin-Ty Racing LLC, and trained by Richard Vega.

I tabbed the chestnut daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, among my top prospects prior to her failing to sell at a high bid of just $32,000 as Hip 940 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. Though it has taken her awhile to break maiden, the clocking of her win on Monday suggests the filly has the ability to move forward from this victory.

A similar move forward has been made by sales-tip Admitit ($20,000 OBSAPR Hip 1046), who took 10 tries to break maiden at Woodbine, with five places and three shows in her first nine starts, but now has won three straight and earned $121,750 from 12 lifetime starts.

Neither of those two quite hold the record for seconditis among the sales-tips. That honor goes to Mugsy Dehere ($40,000 EASMAY Hip 323) who is 7-for-9 finishing second in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. He's earned $35,880 without winning, but hasn't run since May 14 nor worked in the last 60 days, so I'm left crossing my fingers he'll make a comeback.

Others who keep knocking on a door that's yet to open include:

Rockin Harbor ($35K RNA, KEEAPR Hip 36), 0-3-1 from seven starts for $18,000, back on the work tab at Santa Anita.
Elusive Land ($25K RNA, ADSSPR Hip 11), 0-3-0 from three maiden special weight starts at Woodbine for $34,881.
Heir to Dare ($62K RNA, OBSAPR Hip 934), 0-3-0 from three starts in Florida, $26,241.
Surprise Strike ($34K RNA, EASMAY Hip 380), 0-3-0 from six starts at Presque Isle, Woodbine and Saratoga, $29,749.
After Words ($30K RNA, EASMAY Hip 281), 0-2-1 from four starts in the Mid-Atlantic, $15,110, in Tuesday at Parx.

Including Mugsy Dehere, that's 21 seconds from 32 starts for those six.

Regardless, Hard Rock Candy becomes the 103rd maiden-breaker among the 187 prospects I selected from various 2-year-old sales last year. That's 55 percent of all selections and 66.5 percent of the 155 to have made at least one start.

Click here to see the statistics on all 187 selections, plus nine horses whose high prices I criticized.

Sea Why wins her first, has much more to do

2011-08-27T16:37:00.003-04:00

When the hammer fell on Hip 632 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, I gasped.

I liked the fleet-breezing chestnut filly by Whywhywhy-Vermilion Sea, by Boundary. I didn't quite like her $150,000 worth.

The Illinois-bred filly opened eyes with a 32 4/5 breeze at the under-tack show prior to OBS April, and I knew that she wouldn't be among the cheapest of my mostly bargain-minded selections out of that sale. It certainly didn't hurt her, either, to be out of a stakes-placed mare and already half-sister to a multiple stakes-placer named Big Lou, who eventually retired late last year with six wins from 32 starts for more than $200,000.

Before she sold, I conceded that speed "might just crush among IL-breds."

But $150K seemed awfully much for the offspring of a stallion who now stands for $3,500 and whose average 2-year-old filly sells for about $22,000. And after all, blistering breezes at under tack shows can be deceptive.

Subsequently (and cleverly) named Sea Why, she finished third once from three starts as a juvenile.

Coming off the shelf on Saturday at Arlington Park, and in for a $10,000 tag among maidens, Sea Why went to the front under E.T. Baird and stayed there, winning by three lengths as the roughly 5/2 favorite in a field of 11. Her fellow sales-tip of mine Cat Has Claws was sixth after stumbling at the gate or breaking awkwardly (not reported on the Equibase chart) and then being used up chasing the pace.

Bred in Illinois by T/C Stable, Sea Why remains the property of Silverton Hill LLC. She is trained by Larry Rivelli.

She's now banked $10,970 on the long road to recouping $150,000 plus the associated costs of training. Though her time for 6.5 furlongs on Polytrack Saturday was a pedestrian 1:21.10, maybe this first-off-the-layoff effort is one she can build from, and we we'll eventually Sea Why" I liked her, and why Silverton Hill loved her enough to pay her Ocala ransom.

Sea Why also becomes the 102nd of my 187 sales selections to break maiden; that's 54.6 percent.

Click here to see all 187 horses, plus nine whose high prices caused me to pan their purchases.

Grey Goddess breaks through at Charles Town

2011-08-27T14:15:00.003-04:00

Grey Goddess, a filly I selected from last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training, broke maiden in her fifth lifetime start, scoring Wednesday night among special weights at Charles Town.

Travis Dunkelberger kept the filly close to early leader Second Market in the opening stages of the race, took over by a length and a half at the top of the stretch, and maintained that margin to the finish in a 4 1/2-furlong race run in 53.02. Another of my sales selections, Gallop Girl ($45,000 as OBSAPR Hip 1079) finished fifth in her second lifetime start.

Grey Goddess (Mizzen Mast-Bet Birdie, by Bet Twice) was bred in Kentucky by N.J. Samford, and is now owned by Winners Circle Partners II and trained by Hugh McMahon.

I shortlisted the filly for a client at EASMAY 2010, where she sold for $50,000 (rather more than I expected) to Pewter Stable as Hip 36. Her current connections claimed the filly in her last out at Parx Racing in Philadelphia for $40,000 and she quickly paid dividends.

Grey Goddess has now earned $23,510 from a win and a place in five starts.

She becomes the 101st winner worldwide from my 187-horse list of 2-year-old prospects catalogued at 2010 juvenile sales. That's 54 percent of all selections.

Elsewhere Wednesday, sales-tip Code Dancer collected his second lifetime win in a Penn National upset.

Code Dancer, a $13,000 RNA as Hip 1187 at OBSAPR 2010, was actually my first sales selection to break his maiden, doing so on May 15 last year for a $50,000 tag at Presque Isle Downs. He followed that start with an effort in a stakes race at Woodbine, where he was last of six and shelved until turning 3.

On Wednesday, making his sixth lifetime start, Code Dancer and rider Arienne Cox stalked the leaders and pounced in the stretch, paying $25.60 to win a $7,500 claimer run in 58.63 over the Tapeta synthetic surface. Finishing third was another of my sales tips, Wild Alley Cat, at nearly 11/1. The trifecta of my sales tips sandwiched around heavy favorite Tandem Axle paid $189.70.

Code Dancer (Omega Code-Jocey's Dance, by Seattle Dancer) was bred in Florida by Brambly Lane Farm, is owned by Clyde D. Race, and is trained by Wayne W. Rice. He has earned $25,982 from a pair of wins in six starts.

Wild Alley Cat (Flower Alley-Winner's Ticket, by Jolie's Halo) was bred in Kentucky by Needham-Betz Thoroughbreds Inc., Kidder, Blackburn, Lamantia and Halecky. He is owned and trained by Burton K. Sipp. The gelding broke his maiden for the Sipp family at first asking at Turf Paradise and has hit the board in each of his last two starts at Penn National, earning $12,340. He was purchased for just $6,000 as Hip 401 at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale in May 2010, where I considered him a Priority 2 prospect for a client seeking bargain runners.

Click here to see the results for all 187 sales selections.

Catching up with Calder winners

2011-08-27T13:50:00.004-04:00

A week on the road taking my daughter to college was followed by a hectic week in the workplace, and I have been remiss in reporting several victors from my 2010 list of juvenile sales selections.

Two of the better ones had their pictures snapped again at Calder Race Course in Florida last weekend. On Aug. 20, a week ago today, stakes-placed Bessie M prevailed under the guidance of rider Daniel Centeno as the short-price favorite in an optional-claiming field that was cut from eight runners to four due to scratches.

It was the third win in seven starts for Platinum Equestrian Corporation and trainer Antonio Sano, who claimed Bessie M for $25,000 at Gulfstream in January. She's never finished worse than third for the connections, including a show finish in the Regal Gal Stakes at Calder on May 28 and second by a head in the Leave Me Alone Stakes over the same course on June 11. Bessie M now has four wins, three places and three shows from 12 starts for $93,604.

I shortlisted Bessie M (Medallist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat) for a client seeking bargain prospects at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training. She was purchased for $35,000 by William H. Harris, for whom she broke maiden in a dead-heat with Feelin Abit Frisky at Monmouth on Aug. 20 as of her 2-year-old season. Bessie M was bred in Maryland by Mr. and Mrs. Charles McGinnes.

On Sunday at Calder, inconsistent two-time stakes-winner REPRIZED HALO decided to bring his A-game in an optional-claimer in which he was in for the $25,000 tag. That race was also riddled with scratches when it came off the turf, but the Manuel Azpurua-trained and Daniel Coa-ridden Reprized Halo -- who broke his maiden in the slop -- still paid $19 to win.

Reprized Halo was bred in Florida by Debra and Bill Backlinie. He has now won four times from 19 starts for $340,644.

I selected Reprized Halo in a search for mostly bargain prospects out of the 2010 Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. The son of Halo's Image-Reprized Angel, by Reprized, where he sold to his current connections for a mere $21,000. It took the colt seven tries to break maiden, then on his eighth, he shocked the field in the $365,000 Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes, paying $94.60 to win and handing the very talented GOURMET DINNER (another of my OBS April tips) his first lifetime defeat in four starts.

Reprized Halo would later win the $100,000 OBS Championship Stakes as a 3-year-old.

Click here to follow all 187 of my 2010 juvenile sales selections.

Scenic City 'Storms' to maiden win in final strides; two prior winners collect second lifetime victories

2011-08-19T17:14:00.004-04:00

It's fitting, perhaps, that while traveling to Boulder, Colo., the 100th winner arrived from my 2010 juvenile sales tips, and her name is Scenic City Storm.

Boulder, after all, in the shadow of the Flatirons, is about as beautiful as cities get. And I even forged our way down I-70 through a thunderstorm on our drive.

Scenic City Storm broke through on Thursday in her third start, and did so among special weights at Calder in a race taken off the turf. She'd been a game second despite being bumped at the start in her second lifetime effort, on grass. This time, sent off as the third-favored among nine at about 3/1, she rated in sixth under Eduardo Nunez, and was still fifth at the top of the stretch, but wore down the leaders to gain victory by three-quarters of a length. Final time for five furlongs on an always-heavy Calder track that was rated as "good" was 1:01.27.

Scenic City Storm was bred in Florida by Bridlewood Farm. She is trained by Brian Cleary and has now earned $25,320 for owners Dale Howard and Mark Hamilton.

I tipped the bay daughter of Stormy Atlantic-Godmother, by Show 'Em Slew at Ocala's April sale last year, where she was purchased for $35,000 as Hip 1093. Her solid efforts on both turf and dirt reflect the versatility I hoped we'd find from the offspring of Stormy Atlantic. She also shows some talent inherited from her dam, winner of the Safely Kept S. and two other added-money events on her way to earning $373,341.

With 100 winners on the books, 53.5 percent of my 2-year-old selections have now broken their maidens.

Later on Thursday, another sales-selection of mine collected her second lifetime win among claiming company at Charles Town. I shortlisted My Reward (Grand Reward-Leelu, by Carson City) as a Priority 3 horse for a client at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic in May 2010, where she failed to sell as Hip 217 on a top bid of $16,000. She prevailed by a length Thursday at CT, but it was reported by stewards that she did bleed during the race.

My Reward was bred in Pennsylvania by E&D Enterprises and Grand Reward Syndicate, was ridden by Rodney Soodeen who picked up the mount from Antonio Lopez, and is owned and trained by Melissa L. Hunt. The filly has now won twice and placed three other times from nine starts for $28,261.

Also comes word that Little Man Arran (Golden Missile-Ms Copelan, by Copelan) won for the second time after being sent to Barbados from Canada, where he made his first few starts at 2. He won Saturday going 1,570 meters on turf in 1:35.6. With about $12,960 earned (U.S.) in foreign currency, he's about halfway to paying back the $25,000 Bill and Hayley Blevin spent on him as Hip 169 at OBSAPR.

Click here to view all 187 selections and nine expensive horses whom I took a stand against.

Good Chemistry best medicine among Hoosier maidens

2011-08-15T11:08:00.004-04:00

I've been remiss in reporting the latest member of my 2010 juvenile sales tips to find his way to the winner's circle.

Good Chemistry did just that Thursday evening, winning a competitive maiden special weight heat at Hoosier Park.

The dark bay gelding by More Than Ready-Sister Swank, by Skip Away was sent off as the third choice at slightly more than 3/1 odds in a good-betting race that saw six of the seven entries go off at odds of 6/1 or below. He was in contention throughout, gained separation from the field along with 5/2 favorite Tingaleo, then wore that rival down in deep stretch to score by three-quarters of a length. Final time for a mile over fast dirt was 1:36, and with the runner-up some 5 1/2 lengths clear of third-place Street Talk'n Man, it would be hard to argue that "Chemistry's" performance was anything other than "Good."

That might be especially so considering what was paid for the youngster -- a paltry $10,000 as Hip 113 at Keeneland's April 2010 auction, prompting me to label him one of my "steals" of the sale. I singled out the prospect for praise based on his solid sire and the then-colt's up-side as the first foal out of a Grade 3-winning mare who earned $389,989, was half to a pair of additional stakes winners, and whose dam was a stakes-placed producer of nine winners from 11 foals. The horse even breezed 21 4/5 for a quarter.

Good Chemistry didn't race at 2, and didn't fare too well in his first three races upon his debut at age 3. He was sixth among special weights in his unveiling at Gulfstream Park, then seventh and eighth in Polytrack and turf tries among special weights at Arlington.

Back on real dirt for the first time since his debut, however, he nearly collected a win in maiden-claiming company going a route of ground at Churchill on June 25, setting the stage for Thursday's winning effort.

Good Chemistry was bred in Kentucky by Aleyrion Bloodstock Ltd. and is owned by Thomas Meites and Richard S. Trent, for whom he has now earned $25,984. He is trained by Doug Matthews and was ridden to victory (quite well, I might add) by Orlando Mojica.

With the win, Good Chemistry brings my 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010 to within one maiden-breaker of the century mark. The 99 winners from 187 prospects equals 52.9 percent of all selections.

The sales-tip class collected another foreign victor on Friday as Sand Hi was victorious for the second time in nine starts at South Korea's Busan racecourse. Sand Hi (Stormy Atlantic-Hay Lauren, by Hay Halo) was shortlisted as a "Priority 3" horse among 48 prospects recommended to a client at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He sold there for $20,000 as Hip 171 to the KOID, Korea's racing authority, which exported him for resale. Sand Hi has now earned the equivalent of $65,833 at Busan.

Sand Hi's earnings last week also have bumped that Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale group into the realm of profitability. About $1.13 million was bid on the 46 of 48 horses to go through the ring (two were withdrawn, only one of which has raced), and their collective earnings now approach $1.2 million. I'm about to issue a full update on that 48-horse shortlist and how they've fared vs. the remainder of the catalog; look for that by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, click here to follow all my sales selections.

I say Lasix, you say Salix; oh, and I say 'Use it or don't'

2011-08-10T21:33:00.001-04:00

I've neglected commenting much about this sport for the past few months, restricting my blog posts to reports of the successes (mostly) of my 2-year-old sales selections from 2010. But news that the American Graded Stakes Committee will ban the use of Salix in graded races for 2-year-olds next year prompts me to react.

When it comes to Salix -- still known pretty much everywhere as Lasix, and scientifically known as furosemide -- make a choice, America. Use it or don't.

OK, I understand that sometimes progress takes baby steps. (More about that later.) But weaning the U.S. racing thoroughbred population off Salix (which is used almost nowhere else) a handful of horses at a time, that is, only 2-year-olds in graded stakes, is like a toddler taking his first step on a walk from New York to Los Angeles. Maybe he'll get there before he's old enough to vote.

I'm not entirely convinced (maybe not at all convinced) that Salix itself is definitively detrimental to the breed. Some people believe it makes the horses brittle, or cuts down on their number of starts per year and lifetime (which indeed are declining), but there isn't much conclusive science on those fronts. The evidence is anecdotal and the conclusions mostly speculative.

On the other hand -- and this isn't fence-riding on my part -- I am a proponent of American horses competing without any race-day medications. I can make that statement despite having also made the prior statement because trainers and jurisdictions everywhere in the world have shown horse racing can take place (at a very high level) without race-day use of medications, particularly in this case Salix. Thus, I don't really need science to tell me Salix is "bad," because I already know the drug isn't absolutely necessary for horses and horse racing to survive, even thrive.

Meanwhile, science does suggest that EIPH -- that's exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage, or "bleeding" -- is inherited in horses. So it is best that we breed with the horses least likely to be carrying this trait, and by running them without Salix, we'll know horses perform better without pharmaceuticals masking an inherited flaw. (Although as Sid Fernando explored in this recent blog post and his story in North American Trainer magazine, what do you do when those who don't bleed as runners, sire those that do?)

Though the debate over Salix has brewed for awhile and has reached a boiling point, the problem of EIPH in thoroughbreds is hardly new. In the United States, the highest honor for a racehorse is to win an Eclipse Award. That honor is named for the undefeated Eclipse (1764), a horse to whom some 80 percent of all modern thoroughbreds can trace its lineage -- and a great-grandson of Bartlett's Childers, a horse whose original nickname was "Bleeding Childers."

Breeding was one of the chief reasons cited by the AGSC for its decision to ban Salix.

"We view this as a positive step for the elite-level horses that will race in graded stakes, the ones most likely to perpetuate the breed," said Dr. J. David Richardson, chairman of the AGSC.

Which would be well and good if only 1 or 2 percent of all fillies retired to be broodmares, or if the propensity to pass along the EIPH trait is entirely the responsibility of the sire, not the dam. (I don't know the answer to that; if someone does, tell me.)

Then there is the question of how a handicapper should handle next year's biggest 2-year-old races. Once again, the racing industry takes action without considering (or at least without acknowledging that it has considered) the plight of the sport's most ardent fans -- those willing to wager on these races.

Last year, there were 6,410 2-year-old races in the U.S. and Canada. Of those, just 49 were graded-stakes events. There were 14,976 2-year-old starters in the United States and Canada, who made a combined 59,998 starts. A virtually imperceptible fraction of those were in graded-stakes.

Unless all U.S. jurisdictions follow the lead of the AGSC (which is, admittedly, trying to be a leader), next season's juveniles it seems could break their maidens on Salix, collect allowance victories and ungraded stakes wins on Salix, then suddenly be entered against one another in a race where that race-day medication is banned.

What will those past-performances you purchased be worth?

If running without race-day medication is worthwhile in the United States and Canada -- and I think that it is -- then let's just pick a date and start doing it. Granted, it might make sense to break that ground with a shovel and not with a backhoe, thus doing so with a class of 2-year-olds (i.e., not withdrawing all horses in competition, tomorrow) is the best way. But make that an entire class of 2-year-olds; get them all started off on drug-free careers together, and consider "grandfathering" those older horses running on Salix, which is just about everybody these days, so that a horse doesn't have to be withdrawn from something to which his system has become accustomed.

Within just a few seasons, it will be the horses who are listed as running on Lasix in the Racing Form who are in the distinct minority, not the other way around.

And, like most things in horse racing, it is the trainers and breeders who will need to adjust their ways; not the animals.

Today was the day for Be That It May

2011-08-08T18:22:00.004-04:00

She didn't sell at Ocala's 2010 April sale of 2-year-olds as no buyer was willing to offer more than $18,000 for her, which wasn't enough to meet her sellers' reserve. And she didn't break maiden among special weights at a major meet like Gulfstream Park in the winter or Saratoga in the summer.

But as of this afternoon, Be That It May is a winner, and the 98th to break maiden among my 187 sales selections from various 2010 juvenile auctions.

Be That It May placed twice in five starts at Philadelphia Park/Parx Racing before shipping north and dropping "south" to the $5,000 level to find her friends at Suffolk Downs. But she dispensed with those new playmates handily Monday, despite stumbling at the break and drifting out on the turn for home. The bay filly led at every call and covered a muddy 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:07.51 to defeat 6-year-old debuter (yes, you read that right) Classy City Lady by 5 1/2 lengths under Jacqueline Davis.

The daughter of Proud Accolade-Miss Angel T., by Talc, was bred in Florida by Norman Casse. She is now owned by Nicole Hedus and trained by William C. Hedus. She has earned $10,720 from six starts.

I recommended Be That It May prior to her going through the ring as Hip 136 at OBSAPR 2010. She only brought a top bid of $18,000 despite a 10-flat breeze and her being both the daughter of a stakes-winning dam and half-sister to G2 winner PROFIT OPTION. Her family displays considerable soundness: Her dam raced 43 times, and her sturdy dirt/turf-routing son (Be That It May's half-brother) Super Twenty Five (Valid Appeal) raced 62 times, Profit Option made 27 starts, and several others made starts numbered in the 20s and 30s. So even if she stays at this low level, perhaps Be That It May can run on as a useful, if modest claimer for years to come.

Regardless, as winner No. 98 from the class, 52 percent of my 187 selections have now broken their maidens.

Click here to follow them all.

Weekend results: 0-for-USA, 4-for-6 worldwide

2011-08-07T22:22:00.004-04:00

It was a fruitless weekend Stateside, save for a few places and shows, but the horses I tabbed from last year's 2-year-old sales garnered four wins and two seconds from six foreign starts this weekend.

Winners Sunday included Admitit -- victorious for the third straight time in Canada after taking 10 tries to break maiden -- and Viva Ace, who is now 6-for-10 lifetime running among very good company in South Korea. The other two wins came Saturday in the form of a daily double at Hipodromo Camarero in Puerto Rico, where Australis Dream broke his maiden in Race 4 and stakes-placed Goldenrod Road collected his second lifetime victory among claiming company in Race 5.

Australis Dream becomes the 97th horse to break maiden worldwide from the 187 prospects I selected on this blog from selected juvenile auctions of 2010. He sold for $28,000 as Hip 728 at Ocala's April sale last year. The dark bay son of West Acre-Always a Dream, by Always a Classic, was bred in Florida by Gilbert G. Campbell, is owned by Luis Hiraldo, and is trained by Ramon Morales.

Goldenrod Road sold for $23,000 as Hip 423 from that same OBS April 2010 sale. He broke maiden in his second start and was third in Puerto Rico G3 company in his fourth try, but it took until his 14th start to clear the NW2L condition. (He was second twice and third three times in his last five starts.) The bay colt by Montbrook-Special Report, by Notebook, was bred in Florida by Centaur Farms Inc., is owned by Carlos Oyola Stable and is trained by Allison Escobar.

Updating the earnings for those two will have to wait until the charts arrive at Equibase from San Juan, apparently via carrier pigeon.

On Sunday, Viva Ace added to his considerable Korean accomplishments as we in the States were nestled in our beds, and did it by upsetting Korean Derby champion Cheonnyeon Daero. The native-bred Cheonnyeon Daero was sent off as the 7/5 favorite, but 4/1 second-choice Viva Ace wore him down in the final furlong of the 1,600-meter feature handicap at Busan, drawing off to win by 2 1/2 lengths.

I shortlisted Viva Ace for a bloodstock client seeking bargain prospects from the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md. The dark bay gelding by Macho Uno-Dancing Lake, by Meadowlake, sold for just $20,000 as Hip 90, and was shipped-off with many other U.S.-auctioned 2-year-olds to race at the Seoul and Busan tracks in South Korea. Viva Ace has won six and placed second three other times from 10 lifetime starts for $209,555, with his only off-the-board finish coming in his lone try against stakes company and older horses.

With his haul, Viva Ace pushes the 48-horse list from EASMAY precariously close to paying for themselves. The whole group cost a shade over $1.1 million (minus two that were withdrawn from the sale, one of which hasn't raced and maybe never will), and now are within a cheap win or decent placing from cashing-out with several months left to run as 3-year-olds.

Much later on Sunday, Admitit as noted collected her third straight victory by a length among $40,000 claimers at Canada's premier track, Woodbine. Bred in Kentucky by Hot Pepper Farm, she is now 3-5-3 from 12 starts, for $121,750 for owner Saffie Joseph and trainer Ricky Griffith. I recommended the bay filly by E Dubai-Fine Day, by Fantastic Light, as Hip 1046 at OBSAPR 2010, where she likewise sold for a bargain $20,000. ... Mr. Joseph has certainly gotten his money's worth with the filly -- you'd have to Admitit. (Rim-shot, please!)

Click here and scroll down for up-to-date stats on all 187 runners worldwide.

Decennial arrives just in time at the Spa

2011-08-05T18:19:00.001-04:00

Experiencing trouble not once, but twice in a field of six, Decennial nonetheless benefited from a masterfully patient ride by Ramon Dominguez to score by less than a length on the wire Thursday in a starter handicap at Saratoga.

On Thursday, Decennial went forth as the 6/5 favorite in the 8.5-furlong test on Saratoga's inner turf. Usually full of run late, she tracked along patiently under Dominguez and behind the other five runners for the first six furlongs. Endeavoring to move up, Decennial was forced to check at the quarter-pole, then, as the Equibase chart puts it, found herself "mired behind a wall spreading from the rail into the five path." She was checked-up again with three-sixteenths to go when To The Point under John Velazquez lugged in, letting David Cohen and Higher Incentive surge to the lead as early leaders Margaret Smile and Classical Fashion spit their respective bits.

It looked as though Cohen and Higher Incentive were home free, leading by a length and a half in mid-stretch, with Decennial still two lengths in arrears, in third. But when Dominguez asked Decennial for more, she found it, and overhauled the leader just short of the wire. Final time for the trip was 1:42.82.

It was the third consecutive win and the fourth in five tries on turf for Decennial, whose only unplaced effort was on the inner dirt during Aqueduct's winter meeting. The Florida-bred chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner, has made all six of her lifetime starts at age 3 on the New York circuit, and has earned $80,500 for Blue Devil Racing Stable. She was bred by Ocala Stud and is trained by Carlos Martin.

I recommended Decennial out of last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where sold for just $26,000 as Hip 349. She was one of three closely related Florida-breds that I recommended from the same sale: The other two turned out to be GOURMET DINNER (also sired by Trippi, 1st Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, 2nd Fountain of Youth S.-G2, etc., $989,660) and RIGOLETTA (by Concerto, Oak Leaf S.-G1, $184,070). Decennial is a half-sister to the dams of both Gourmet Dinner and Rigoletta.

The three sold for a combined $101,000. Though Rigoletta is already retired due to injury, the trio have won 10 of 20 lifetime, including four stakes (two graded), for $1,254,230.

Also Thursday, the 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010 nearly collected two wins in more modest claiming company. A pair of Grand Reward fillies I shortlisted for a client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May each finished second in their respective races Thursday night.

Reward The Lady (Grand Reward-You're A Lady, by Youmadeyourpoint) who sold for just $6,000 as the first horse through the ring at that Maryland sale, was second beaten three-quarters at Presque Isle Downs in her effort to collect a third lifetime win, this time for a $7,500 tag. She now has two wins and two seconds from seven starts on the Pennsylvania circuit, her home state, for $39,580.

About an hour later, My Reward (Grand Reward-Leelu, by Carson City) was a hard-closing second by a head for an $8,000 tag at Charles Town. My Reward was a $16,000 RNA at EASMAY 2010, and after placing just once from her first eight lifetime starts has managed a win and two second-place finishes from her last three efforts, for combined earnings of $18,661.

Click here to follow all 187 sales selections.

Bernardus breaks through at Mountaineer

2011-08-01T23:04:00.006-04:00

Most of the time, breaking maiden for a $5,000 tag is only considered "better" than not breaking maiden at all. In the case of Bernardus, the tag is still two-thirds more than the horse himself cost at auction.

The 3-year-old dark bay gelding was among my mostly bargain-seeking recommendations out of the 2010 Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where he changed hands for just $3,000 as Hip 766.

The son of Pleasantly Perfect-Aunt Dot, by Capote, showed promise at higher levels in his first two starts, finishing fourth beaten 5 1/2 for a $32,000 tag at Tampa in his debut and fourth beaten 3 3/4 for a $25,000 tag on turf at Arlington Park. But dull eighth- and fifth-place efforts on Arlington's Polytrack apparently prompted a sharp drop in class and thus Monday night's effort on the Mountaineer Park main track.

Sent off as the 6/5 top choice among the betting public, Bernardus won as though he should have been 3/5, bolting to a quick lead that widened throughout. Bernardus won by seven lengths under T.D. Houghton, despite covering 5 1/2 furlongs in a modest 1:07.40.

Bernardus was bred in Kentucky by Courtlandt Farm. He is trained by James R. Barker for Kenneth O. Smallwood. The gelding has now earned $6,270 from five starts.

I thought and still think that Bernardus has a chance to be a useful racehorse -- even when nobody else did, even though he only galloped rather than breezing at the sale, and even though he's been dropped to $5,000 at this point -- on his relative good looks and the evidence that his siblings were able to outrun the poor career of their dam, who was unplaced in her only start. Bernardus has a half-sister, Aunt Dot Dot (Gulch), who won six of 49 lifetime for $213,915. His half-brother Cassoulet (Distorted Humor) was stakes-placed and had five wins from 25 starts for $209,902. Cassoulet's full sister Global Gala only raced four times, but did break maiden among special weights at Churchill.

And this is the (distant) female family, after all, of CHRIS EVERT and WINNING COLORS.

Bernardus will not match the exploits of those famous females; 3-year-old champions and in the latter's case, one of only three fillies to win the Kentucky Derby. He might not prove to be as good as Aunt Dot Dot or Cassoulet. But for $3,000 he really doesn't really have to be.

The second maiden-breaker on the day for my "sales-tip Class of 2010," Bernardus is the 96th horse overall from that 187-horse list to become a winner; that's 51.3 percent.

Click here and scroll down to view the selling prices and racing stats of all 187 sales selections I made in 2010.

Sales-tip Shipwreck Cove latest to break maiden, and to deny hard-luck Hard Rock Candy

2011-08-01T18:24:00.007-04:00

Someday, I have to believe, Hard Rock Candy is going to win a race.

Just when I thought that might be today -- and so did bettors, sending her off as the favorite at nearly even money in a 5.5-furlong test at Parx Racing in Philadelphia -- one of her fellow "sales tips" of 2010 stepped up to deny her on a day when nobody else could.

Shipwreck Cove, previously 0-for-2 in a pair of starts at Monmouth Park, appeared for the first time at Parx on Monday and cleared her maiden hurdle in sharp, front-running style beneath jockey Erilius Vaz. She ran a blistering first quarter in 21.85, set a split of 45.05 for the half and finished the race in 1:04 flat. Hard Rock Candy, who had to be steadied at the sixteenth-pole by Kendrick Carmouche, settled for second -- again, for the fifth time in eight starts.

The race was for maidens carrying a $40,000 claiming tag. It was also at least the fifth time in about 13 months of following my 187-horse list of sales tips that two of "my" horses ran in the same race, and finished in the exacta. This time it was worth $38.40 for $2.

Both fillies were sales recommendations of mine on this blog from various juvenile auctions of 2010. Shipwreck Cove, a gray or roan daughter of Stormy Atlantic-Coquettish, by Not For Love, sold for just $18,000 as Hip 895 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training. Hard Rock Candy, a chestnut, Florida-bred daughter of Wildcat Heir-D. D. Rocks, by Tactical Advantage, failed to sell at that same auction as Hip 940 when the $32,000 top offer for her did not meet her consignor's reserve price.

Shipwreck Cove was bred in Kentucky by Susan Shipp and Cynthia Polk. She is owned by Rayzin The Bar Stables and Hilltop Winners Circle Stables. Her trainer is Michael Lerman. The filly has now earned $22,070 from three starts. I touted her not only off a good 10.1 breeze at the sale, but because her stakes-winning dam (who was half to two other stakes winners) had already produced a stakes-placer Taking a Chance (by Stephen Got Even, now four wins, 2nd Tippet S. at 2, $103,834) and an older brother who was a first-out winner on turf in Roguish (Arch).

Her connections would be wise not to ignore the turf proclivities of this family. Her half-sister was stakes-placed on turf, her half-brother a grass winner, her dam (while a stakes winner on dirt) was stakes-placed once on grass, and her dam's half-sister MISS LOMBARDI won the Maryland Million Ladies' S. at a mile and an eighth on turf. Since this filly's sire Stormy Atlantic can certainly get a grass horse, it could be worth sending Shipwreck Cove to the turf course sooner rather than later.

As for Hard Rock Candy, she's earned $61,340 from five places and a show in eight starts. And, she's hardly the only hard-luck maiden among my 187-horse list of prospects from last season

Mugsy Dehere has finished second seven times from nine starts, all in maiden special weight company at Charles Town. Elusive Land didn't debut until age 3, and has finished second in all three of her starts at Woodbine, on grass and on Polytrack. Another Wildcat Heir filly from my list, Heir to Dare, is 3-for-3 second-place, all among maiden special weights this winter and spring at Gulfstream Park. Surprise Strike is 3-for-5 finishing in second place, with a recent sixth in a blanket finish at Saratoga in which the margins between the first six places were head-neck-half-neck-neck.

I'd even argue that a fellow banished to Assiniboia Downs, Rain Dance, is a hard-luck maiden. He's 6-for-11 finishing third (never even second), and I'm afraid won't win a race until he gets a rider who understands that the shortest way around the track is on the rail. On Monday, the horse rated patiently and saved ground in maiden-claiming company and the rail opened up for him like Moses parting the Red Sea, but he'd already been taken widest of all (five-wide, per the chart, I'd say six) on the turn for home. Rain Dance ultimately lost by 2 3/4 lengths to Gimmea Can Do It and Regina Sealock, who led gate-to-wire and thus had an inside trip, and missed by a length to second-place-throughout Molinaro Irishline and Krista Carignan; a fairly close third despite Rain Dance's running perhaps 30 to 40 feet further than either of those horses by the finish. In his previous two races Rain Dance was six-wide and seven-wide on the turn for home.

The more I follow racing, the more I realize and appreciate (and wager upon) the rare combination of skill and courage it takes to skim the fence like Calvin Borel.

That frustration side, the aforementioned Shipwreck Cove hereby becomes maiden-breaker No. 95 from my 187-horse list of sales recommendations; that's 50.8 percent. The class has one more chance tonight as the ultra-cheap ($3,000 at OBSAPR) Bernardus goes forth in maiden-claiming company within the hour at Mountaineer Park.

Click here to see them all, complete with updated statistics.

Spring Jump pounces in the stretch for CT victory

2011-07-30T14:28:00.003-04:00

Sent off as the favorite and settling in sixth place early under Fredy Peltroche, Spring Jump overhauled the front-runners in the stretch won by 3 1/2 lengths Friday night in allowance company at Charles Town.

Shefoggedmyglasses finished second, Little Miss Nora was third, and sadly fourth-place Gutterball Mary broke down after the wire.

Spring Jump was bred in Florida by Jeanne H. Cutrona and Jerry M. Cutrona Sr. and is owned by Dorado Circle Stables LLC. She is trained by Flint Stites.

The win was Spring Jump's first in four starts at age 3, but she was a winner twice (and placed second in the White Clay Creek Stakes at Delaware Park) as a juvenile. Her record now stands at 3-2-0 from nine starts, for $76,600.

I recommended the daughter of Jump Start-Meg's Answer, by West Acre, on a shortlist of 48 prospects from last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md. Spring Jump sold for just $19,000 as Hip 234.

Click here and scroll down to view the full list and race results of my 187 sales picks (and nine pans) from selected juvenile sales of 2010.

On Appeal on the mark at Calder

2011-07-28T18:45:00.003-04:00

On Appeal did all the work and reaped the majority of the reward Thursday, winning Race 2 at Calder in gate-to-wire fashion, albeit by just a head over a closing Rick the Bartender.

A chestnut son of Closing Argument-Oh Nyet, by Time For a Change broke on top for jockey Luis Jurado, disposed of early challenger My Mass Media and 4/5 favorite Wildcat Formation by the top of the stretch in fractions of 22.23 and 46.07, and enjoyed a two-length lead before Rick the Bartender made his late bid. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt was 1:19.57.

The race was for $25,000 claimers, non-winners of two lifetime. A winner from seven starts at age 2, On Appeal was third by a half-length (and a nose out of second) in his 3-year-old bow last out, for a $16,000 price. Stepped-up in class, he delivered the goods on Thursday, and at $20.80 to win. He has now earned $27,314.

I recommended On Appeal prior to his selling for $25,000 as Hip 218 at Ocala's April sale last year. He is one of 187 juveniles of 2010 that I recommended on this blog from selected 2-year-olds-in-training sales.

Click here to follow them all.

Evangelical wins again, but is she well?

2011-07-28T08:46:00.004-04:00

One of the pricier picks I made during the 2010 juvenile sales season on Sunday collected her fourth win from her last five starts, but circumstantial evidence suggests that Evangelical might benefit from a few prayers for soundness.

The chestnut filly was sent off at prohibitive 2/5 odds in the field of six $12,500 to $10,500 claimers at Monmouth Park Sunday. She bobbled at the start and was in third place early, but won by a widening 8 1/2 lengths under only mild urging by rider Ramon Moya.

Evangelical has four wins, two places and a show from seven lifetime starts, for $113,530.

It is telling that the daughter of Speightstown-Evangelizer, by Saint Ballado -- who failed to sell when $100,000 wasn't enough to meet her reserve price as Hip 9 at Keeneland April 2010 -- also failed to be claimed on Sunday for a modest $12,500.

Evangelical broke maiden in her third lifetime start among special weights at Belmont last autumn, then went on the shelf for the winter. She returned at Gulfstream April 9, entered for a $35,000 tag, winning by 4 1/4 without being fully asked. On that day, Evangelical was claimed from owner North Shore Racing and trainer Barclay Tagg by trainer Joseph C. Catanese III, for JMJ Racing Stables LLC.

Her new connections wheeled Evangelical back for a $45,000 tag in an optional-claimer her next out at Gulfstream. She was third as the even-money favorite, beaten 8 1/2 lengths, and was claimed by trainer Edward J. Coletti Sr. for Dennis and Eileen Jacques, her current connections of record.

Coletti and the Jacques have raced her twice at Monmouth, for sharply declining tags. She won by six as the even-money favorite for a $25,000 claiming price on June 19 and stayed in the hands of Coletti and Jacques. Evangelical was entered for $10,000 in a race that was canceled due to heat on Friday at Monmouth and cross-entered for $12,500 in the race she won with ease on Sunday, and still went unclaimed.

And, speaking of ease, Moya pulled up Evangelical earlier after the finish than the rest of the horses in the field. Granted, that might be more readily done when the horse wins without being under a full drive. But it's still a little disquieting to see a filly win by 8 1/2 and yet the other horses in the race gallop-out beyond her after the wire.

I did pose the question of soundness despite recommending Evangelical as a possible "Second Chance Deal" (an RNA one might purchase privately or at another sale) from Keeneland 2010. Her female family is peppered with blacktype, from ill-fated Canadian champion juvenile KNIGHTS TEMPLAR (died of lymphoma at 3), G1-placed FOR ALL SEASONS and DIAL A SONG, to multiple G2-winning sprinter EATON'S GIFT, to Evangelical's own half-sister, G2-placed Worship the Moon. Three of her first six dams were unraced (though all of them were stakes producers), and her own dam raced just three times.

"So, I'm concerned about her durability," I wrote at the time, "but the family has talent."

Though I could be wrong, I suspect Evangelical is nursing a bowed tendon (or some other malady) and won't be making 15 or 20 lifetime starts. But if she keeps dropping in class, she's worth considering as a claim, even if you had to retire her to the breeding shed, where females from her family have excelled at passing along precocity and talent, if not durability.

Just, please, if you do claim and breed Evangelical, send her to a source of rock-solid soundness.

Click here to follow along with Evangelical and her 186 companions on my 2010 list of sales selections.

I'm First, again

2011-07-21T18:45:00.001-04:00

A bargain selection from last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training appears to have found his friends among modest turf claimers at Colonial Downs.

I'm First saw his name finally rendered accurate when he overcome a bumping incident and a five-wide trip to break maiden by fourth lengths going a mile on grass at Colonial in his 3-year-old debut on July 7. On Thursday night, in his first race after becoming a winner and again in for a $5,000 tag, I'm First and jockey Luis Colon were near the pace throughout and drew off to win by 4 1/4 lengths among NW2L company.

I'm First paid $15.60 to win in his maiden-breaker and got less respect at the window Thursday evening, returning $22.80 to the relative few who numbered themselves among his faithful. The exacta over 2/1 favorite Eighteen Twelve paid $99.60 and the $2 trifecta with clear 9/2 second-favorite Dane Austin was worth $258.80.

Meanwhile, the Susan Cooney trainee bettered his maiden-breaking one-mile time of 1:40.27 by double-digit lengths Thursday, finishing the mile in 1:36.95.

I recommended the bay ridgeling by Soto-Ladies First, by El Raggaas, as Hip 212 when consigned by Randy Miles at EASMAY 2010. His unraced dam produced nine to race and six winners (two of a dozen races each) from 10 prior foals, and his second dam was stakes winner who had 12 lifetime victories and produced 10 winners from 11 foals, including four stakes horses. I'm First breezed 11.1 (fair for the sale) and checked out OK conformationally. As I wrote on my blog after the fact: "Why wouldn't this one be a racehorse of some sort?"

In looking for bargain prospects, I also reasoned that sons of Soto -- who had been banished as a sire not just from Kentucky, but from the country -- would be among the most likely to fall into the price range I was asked to peg. That he did, selling for $11,000 to B&B Racing Stable LLC, who saw him place third twice from five starts at age 2, and now have gotten their picture taken twice in as many starts at age 3. Granted, the horse has earned just $12,656 from two wins in seven starts, but that's more than the owners paid for him, something probably a majority of auction purchases can never claim. And as noted, if he can reproduce sub-1:37 miles and stay sound, he can earn his keep for awhile at the racetrack, even if only among modest company.

In fact, I recommended both sons of Soto from EASMAY 2010, and Lookin At Options -- who sold even cheaper as Hip 163, for $8,500 -- broke maiden in his fifth start at age 2 for a $25,000 tag, and has $29,240 banked from seven starts in Pennsylvania.

In other tip-and-rip action Thursday (and recently), Akkadian, a dark bay son of Tiznow-Papa Sids Girl, by Souvenir Copy, was fifth in stakes company at Del Mar. I criticized this one, declaring that his purchase price of $270,000 as Hip 86 paid by successful owner Gary Broadwas among the "surreal" tickets signed at Keeneland April 2010. Actually, the colt is a real looker, has two wins in six starts, and has not embarrassed himself in two straight stakes-company exposures, finishing fourth in the G3 Affirmed Handicap at Hollywood Park and fifth beaten just 4 1/2 in Thursday's restricted Oceanside Stakes. ... With $86,002 earned, he has a ways to go in order to pay back $270,000. But he's one of the few horses among the 10 I criticized from last year's sales (on price vs. likely talent) who seems to have much chance of making me eat my words.

Also, in late June I missed noting that SIGNAL ALERT, a formerly undefeated-in-four-starts recommendation of mine sent to Trinidad, had finished second to stablemate Readbetweendlines in the PKF 3-year-old Sprint Stakes at Santa Rosa Park. A stakes-winner at 2 and Santa Rosa record-setter at 3, Signal Alert was relegated to third place in his prior effort (and first loss) by multiple-champion Bruceontheloose and Readbetweendlines in the Santa Rosa Dash-G2. He has now earned $32,248, with purses converted to U.S. dollars. I recommended Signal Alert as Hip 465 at OBSAPR 2010, where he sold for $35,000.

Click here to follow all 187 picks and nine pans.

Coach no longer Seeking that first win

2011-07-18T00:34:00.003-04:00

Diego Sanchez hustled his gray charge to the front straight from the gate Sunday at Arlington Park, and Seeking the Coach responded by wiring a field of maiden-claimers by a clear-cut five lengths.

In the process, the gelding becomes the 94th horse to break maiden among my 187-horse list of 2010 juvenile sales prospects. It's a milestone win for the class, pushing the percentage of winners above the halfway mark -- now 50.3 percent of my recommendations have managed to win at least one race.

Seeking the Coach was 10th in his March debut at Gulfstream Park, then 10th again going a mile on turf for a $25,000 tag at Arlington in a race that did see him shuffled around a bit in traffic. Switched to Arlington's Polytrack surface and dropped to the $10,000 level, the gelding finished third in consecutive starts before collecting his first win on Sunday. He covered the 5.5 furlongs in 1:05.98 and paid $10.80 to win.

The gray or roan son of El Prado-Oxford Scholar, by Seeking the Gold, was bred in Florida by Adena Springs. He is trained by James DiVito and owned by DiVito and Lee Battaglia.

I recommended the horse prior to his selling for $26,000 as Hip 237 at the 2010 Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. I've long been a fan of his late sire, and his dam was a 2-year-old stakes winner who produced two stakes winners and another stakes-placer of her own from an accomplished brace of earlier foals.

Click here to follow all 187 sales selections.

Decennial rewards faithful at Belmont

2011-07-16T09:27:00.003-04:00

Justifying her post-time odds of 7/5, Decennial waited patiently, then kicked home strongly under Ramon Dominguez Friday at Belmont for a worst-to-first performance that resulted in her third win in four tries on turf.

The chestnut filly was unplaced in her career debut on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. Since trainer Carlos Martin moved her to the grass, she hasn't failed to finish worse than third.

On this day, Decennial entered the race as the 5/2 morning-line favorite. But I had my doubts that she was much better than several others in the eight-horse field, at least based on speed figures. The Belmont betting public liked her chances, though, and sent Decennial off as by far the favorite, with no other horse at lower than 4/1 odds.

Dominguez and Decennial settled in last place through opening fractions of 22.51 and 46 flat set by second-favored and Argentine-bred To The Point. They were sixth after three-quarters run in 1:10.22, had to swing four-wide on the turn for home, and were still in fourth about a furlong from the finish.

Just when I was afraid she might flatten out and come up short, Decennial switched leads for Dominguez and found a new gear with a sixteenth to go. She won by a widening 1 3/4 with a final time of 1:34.77 for a mile.

I tabbed the Florida-bred daughter of Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner, at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where she went for just $26,000 as Hip 349. She has now earned $53,500 for owners Blue Devil Racing Stable.

The filly is one of three from the same immediate female family that I endorsed at OBSAPR 2010. She is actually a half-sister to the dams of both RIGOLETTA ($35,000 as Hip 725, Oak Leaf S.-G1, etc., $184,070) and GOURMET DINNER ($40,000 Hip 277, Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, etc., $989,660). Decennial and Gourmet Dinner are particularly closely related, as both are sired by Trippi.

Click here to follow the 187 horses I recommended from various 2-year-old sales of 2010.

Uncle Carm hangs on at Woodbine to become winner No. 93, one away from a magic number

2011-07-14T18:09:00.005-04:00

Getting away with easy fractions under jockey Tyler Pizarro and hanging on in deep stretch to win by a neck at Woodbine, Uncle Carm on Thursday became the 93rd maiden-breaker from this blog's list of recommended prospects at the 2-year-old sales of 2010.

With 187 horses on that list, the class is now just one broken maiden away from cresting the 50 percent-winners mark worldwide, with currently 49.7 percent of all selections having managed to win at least once.

Uncle Carm, a gray or roan son of Bluegrass Cat-Lady Cruella, by Capote, nearly broke through two starts back, losing by a neck at Keeneland. He collects his first win in his ninth lifetime start, all among maiden special weight company. The winner benefited from slow early fractions of 24.63 and 49.82, giving him the energy to narrowly hold off a charging even-money favorite in Rise to Glory in the closing strides. Final time for a mile and a sixteenth over the Polytrack was 1:46.64.

Uncle Carm was bred in Kentucky by Hartley/DeRenzo Thoroughbreds, and the tandem of Dean De Renzo and Randall Hartley retain ownership of the colt after the $90,000 bid he drew as Hip 45 failed to meet the horse's reserve price at last year's Keeneland April sale. Mark Casse is the trainer. Uncle Carm has now earned $53,146.

I tabbed this half-brother to G2 millionaire LEAH'S SECRET and G3-winning juvenile BEAR TOUGH GUY as a possible "Second-Chance Deal" out of that KEEAPR sale, a list of what I believed were the better RNAs to pass through the ring there; horses that might be purchased privately or entered in another sale later. Of the 11 horses on my Second-Chance Deal list, seven are now winners.

Click here to follow all 187 of my sales picks from 2010, plus a handful of pans.

Do we have 'Dinner' reservations for Sept. 24?

2011-07-12T18:37:00.007-04:00

A table-scrap of evidence has surfaced suggesting that a horse once on the Kentucky Derby trail, might finally be on the comeback trail.

GOURMET DINNER is among the 44 nominations received July 4 for the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby-G2, to be run at Parx Racing on Sept. 24, entered by owners Our Sugar Bear Stable and trainer Bruce R. Brown.

The bay son of Trippi-Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus, more than earned his way into the Derby field by winning the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes as a 2-year-old. He earned some fans with his consistent performances and determined efforts in hitting the board behind Dialed In and Sweet Ducky in the Holy Bull S.-G3 and Soldat in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 at age 3.

Then, Gourmet Dinner was whisked from the Derby's table in March, just as he was expected to be training up to the Florida Derby. His rather silent connections finally confirmed that the horse had suffered a "minor injury" and needed time off. After more than four months out of training, it is unlikely that Gourmet Dinner's connections would pay the fee to nominate him for a big race in September if the horse had no chance at all of being back in action by then.

Considering I was on this horse's bandwagon before he ever ran a race, let alone earned $989,660 -- tipping the son of as a top prospect out of the Ocala April sale, where he brought $40,000 as Hip 277 -- I was among those most eagerly awaiting another taste from a reheated Gourmet Dinner.

This week's announcement of nominations to the Pennsylvania Derby -- a list that also includes Preakness winner Shackleford, a Zayat trio of Jaycito, Joe Vann and Prayer for Relief, and Repole stablemates Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo -- piques my appetite.

Thistoo Shall Pass, finally does

2011-07-10T02:06:00.004-04:00

It might not be often that an 0-for-6 horse who has but one on-the-board finish in her lifetime is sent off as the favorite in maiden special weight company at a top-tier racetrack. But that was the case Saturday at Woodbine, and Thistoo Shall Pass rewarded her backers with a drawing-off 3 3/4-length win at odds of about 9/5.

In the process, she becomes the 92nd horse to break maiden from my 187-horse list of recommended 2-year-olds at selected U.S. sales of 2010. That's creeping precariously close to 50 percent winners -- 49.2 percent, to be exact.

Thistoo Shall Pass had a previous-best finish of third in six lifetime starts. But on this day the daughter of Best of the Bests-Adinatha, by With Approval, was in among fellow Ontario-breds. She also was getting a nice route of ground -- nine furlongs -- on the lawn, for which she is bred, and where her prior best performances had occurred.

Though she lagged the leaders early, running in 10th place of 12 through the opening quarter and still in eighth after six furlongs, Thistoo Shall Pass swept by the field and was ridden out by Patrick Husbands to win by daylight in a time of 1:49.70.

The win was worth $34,875 to the filly's connections, owners Quintessential Racing Florida LLC and trainer Mark Casse. Thistoo Shall Pass was bred in Florida by Keith McClelland and Rachel McClelland. She has now earned $46,019.

I recommended Thistoo Shall Pass when she was cataloged as Hip 707 at Ocala's April 2010 sale of 2-year-olds in training, an auction from which she was withdrawn before going through the ring. I look forward to seeing her get more chances long on the lawn at Woodbine.

In other sales-tip action Saturday, PULGARCITO finished second in his second-straight non-blacktype stakes race at Canada's Assiniboia Downs, this time by a half-length to Hammers Bullet in the Harry Jeffrey Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the dirt. I tipped the now-gelded son of Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat, out of that same OBS April sale, where he failed to meet reserve with a $37,000 bid as Hip 849. He has won twice and placed four other times from 10 starts for $78,195, including victory in the Governor's Cup S. at Zia Park as a 2-year-old.

Click here to follow all 187 of my 2010 selections.

Reward the Lady nabs tips' fifth win in last six starts

2011-07-08T23:39:00.003-04:00

A four-race winning streak for my 2010 juvenile sales selections went by the wayside Friday afternoon when Knows How to Rock settled for third in allowance company at Ellis Park. But Reward the Lady got the class right back on track Friday evening by drawing off to win by four lengths in state-bred claiming company at Pennsylvania's Presque Isle Downs.

Scott Speith and Reward the Lady on Friday night pressured the early pace set by Kristina's Mark and So to Love, with 6/5 favorite Second Appeal close behind. The early leaders faded, but while Second Appeal stayed on to finish second, she was no match for Reward the Lady, who collected her second win in six lifetime starts by covering 5.5 furlongs on the Tapeta track in 1:06.43.

Reward the Lady, a dark bay filly by Grand Reward-You're a Lady, by Youmadeyourpoint, was bred in Pennsylvania by E & D Enterprises and the Grand Reward Syndicate. She is owned by Touchdown Stable and trained by J. Michael Rogers.

I shortlisted Reward the Lady for a bargain-seeking client while working my only sale thus far as a hired bloodstock advisor. She sold for just $6,000 as the first horse through the ring at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training at Timonium, Md., last May. With two wins and a place from six starts, she has now earned $35,420.

Click here to follow all 187 of my 2010 sales selections.

Make it four straight: You Es Oh Club wins at Calder

2011-07-08T18:48:00.000-04:00

There were 11 horses in the gate for Race 3 at Calder this afternoon, but it proved to be a two-horse race.

Luis Saez and You Es Oh Club, one of my juvenile sales recommendations of 2010, hooked up with first-time starter Thunder T and Luis Jurado almost from the start of the five-furlong test for $40,000 maiden-claimers; a race that was washed-off the turf. You Es Oh Club gained an advantage of a length after an opening quarter run in 22.69 and was only a half-length ahead after a half that went by in 46.79. But, just as the two seemed to be setting themselves up to be overtaken by closers, You Es Oh Club persevered under Saez, widening in the stretch to defeat Thunder T by 3 1/4 lengths, with How About Tiznow another 4 1/2 lengths back in third.

Final time was 1:00.05.

In the process, You Es Oh Club becomes the 91st maiden-breaker from my 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010, horses I recommended on this blog from various juvenile auctions last year. His win makes it four in a row for the class in this week's action -- all maidens -- as Shackleton Hill and I'm First broke their maidens Thursday at Woodbine and Colonial Downs, respectively, and Choego Chansa added another overseas winner in a race at Busan in Korea earlier today (which was still late last night in the U.S.).

You Es Oh Club was bred in Kentucky by Lavin Bloodstock & River Glen Capital LLC. He is owned by Galloping Acres Farm; trained by William White. Unplaced in three starts at 2, the race today was his 3-year-old debut. He has earned $11,678 from those four starts, most of it from this effort.

I tabbed the bay son of War Front-Dance Club, by Montbrook (Can you see the origins of his name there?) prior to his selling for $30,000 as Hip 925 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. I wrote at the time that while I would normally want to see a freshman sire and first-time broodmare prove themselves before investing much in their offspring (though it could be argued that $30,000 isn't all that much for a racehorse), there is saw reason to like this 10.1-breezer who "looked the part."

"I liked that dirt-running War Front was by a sire who could get turf horses (Danzig) out of a mare from the Lord-at-War line, which is perhaps better-known as a grass sireline. (And) while Montbrook isn't the turfiest of lines, all three of this dam's stakes siblings earned some or all of that blacktype on the lawn. So the colt should have options; dirt, turf or even synthetic. Hopefully he likes at least one of them."

In other words, don't be surprised to see this one entered on the turf again (he had one turf try among those three efforts last year) nor be too shocked if he likes it. The connections have the added advantage entering those races in knowing that if the race is washed-off the turf, their horses is probably OK over a fast strip, too, or maybe even in the mud.

At least he looks like a horse who can move forward off this effort, doing all the work on the front end and still drawing off down the lane.

With the 91st maiden-breaker, my list of sales tips now boasts 48.7 percent winners from all selections. And if you're betting, with this hot streak going right now -- four straight wins on the heels of two prior second-place finishes in the last six races -- take note that about a dozen class members are scheduled to go to post between now and Monday evening.

Click here and scroll down to see them all.

This time he's right: I'm First collects maiden win, then Choego Chansa becomes winner No. 90

2011-07-08T13:42:00.008-04:00

For the first five starts of his young career, the gelding I'm First, simply wasn't.

He did hit the board in two out of five tries as a 2-year-old; third-place finishes at Charles Town and Laurel Park. But his name was finally fitting on Thursday night at Colonial Downs, the bay gelding's first try on turf. I'm First and jockey Sheldon Russell overcame a bumping incident at the start and being hung five-wide on the turn to clear a field of $5,000 maiden-claimers going a mile on the grass. He won by four lengths in a final time of 1:40.27 and paid $15.60 to win.

The son of Soto-Ladies First, by El Raggaas, was bred in Kentucky by Highclere. He is owned by B and B Racing Stable LLC and trained by Susan Cooney.

I shortlisted I'm First as a "Priority 2" animal on a 48-horse short-list of prospects for a bargain-seeking client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training at Timonium, Md. He sold there for just $11,000 as Hip 212. With this modest win and two prior placings, he's now earned $7,668 -- but just getting your picture taken once isn't a bad return on an $11,000 auction buy.

With the victory, I'm First became winner No. 89 for my 187-horse Sales Tip Class of 2010. And before Thursday night was over in the United States, he was joined by Friday's first sales-tip winner worldwide and the 90th maiden-breaker overall when Choego Chansa bested a foreign-bred Class IV field in Far East Friday action at Busan in Korea.

The dark bay filly by Kafwain-Lil's Gate, by Gate Dancer, was among my recommendations from the 2010 Ocala April sale. She went for $37,000 as Hip 52, purchased by the Korean Racing Authority and resold after export. Choego Chansa broke through to the winner's circle in her 10th start and has now earned $49,996, converted from South Korean Won to U.S. dollars.

Finishing fourth in that same Busan race was another OBSAPR sales-tip of mine, Myeongpumtansang (whose name is spelled as two words in the U.S. and one overseas). Sold to Korea for $19,000 as Hip 1145, the daughter of Candy Ride has now earned $9,674 from 10 starts.

With 90 winners now on the books, that's 48.1 percent from all selections I made from various 2-year-old sales of 2010.

The wins by I'm First and Choego Chansa followed-up a maiden-breaking score earlier Thursday by Shackleton Hill at Woodbine, making for a currently active three-race win streak by my sales tips. That string of success was close to being a bit longer, as the two races prior by the class this week were second-place maiden-race finishes by Elusive Land at Woodbine on Wednesday and Conway Hillbilly (by only three-quarters of a length) at Belmont earlier Thursday.

Click here to follow all 187 sales tips throughout their careers.

Sir Shackleton son tops maiden Hill in fourth climb

2011-07-07T17:49:00.004-04:00

Shackleton Hill, a gelding I tipped as a possible "Second Chance Deal" after he failed to meet reserve price at last year's Keeneland April auction of 2-year-olds in training, broke maiden in his fourth lifetime start this afternoon at Woodbine in Canada.

The bay son of Sir Shackleton-Keepers Hill, by Danehill, was sent off as the second-favorite at odds of 11/5, but scored with the style and by the sort of daylight more appropriate of an even-money choice. Third in his last-out at a higher claiming level, he was dropped to a $12,500 tag and rolled to victory by a widening 5 1/2 lengths despite jockey Luis Contreras circling the leaders in the sixth-path around the turn for home. Final time for five furlongs on Polytrack was a fairly brisk 57.93; the track record held by Dublin Lane is 56.41.

Steve Attard trains the horse for owner Sheldon Pettle.

Shackleton Hill failed to sell at KEEAPR 2010 when the top bid of $27,000 didn't meet his seller's reserve price.

When tabbing the already-named Shackleton Hill as a Second Chance Deal a year ago (that is, the best of the horses that didn't sell at Keeneland, but might be available at a later auction or via private purchase), I admitted that I wasn't really sure what his Kentucky breeder, Kilboy Estate Ltd., was really hoping to achieve with the mating. His sire was a dirt horse with a pair of track records sprinting. His dam was a blacktype-placed turf runner from a decidedly grass-oriented extended female family boasting the likes of G1 lawn-lover AQUARRELISTE, G3 winners AUSRTALIE, ART BLEU, ACOMA, and AGATHE, and many top-class European grass horses. ... Of added interest, this is also the female family of French turf G1-winner ARCANGUES, whose most historic victory was in fact on dirt in the States, upsetting a star-studded 1993 Breeders' Cup Classic field (Bertrando, Best Pal, Devil His Due, Marquetry, Miner's Mark, Colonial Affair, Diazo, etc.) at odds of 133/1.

At any rate, I took a blog-published guess that this mating might produce a synthetic-track horse. Shackleton Hill has now collected a win and a show finish on Polytrack at top-class Woodbine, earning $14,313. His effort today certainly looked like one from which the horse has every right to move forward, and with a sprint record-setting sire and a turf-sprinting dam, it would be good to see him try more of these shorter races on both synthetic and grass.

With the victory, Shackleton Hill becomes winner No. 88 from my 187-horse list of sales selections at various 2010 juvenile auctions. That's 47.1 percent.

The class nearly collected another new winner early in the day at Belmont. There, second-timer Conway Hillbilly, who was unplaced in his only start at 2, tried the turf in his 3-year-old unveiling and nearly wired a field of $50K-$40K maiden-claimers. He finished second by a nose over "firster" Manresa Road, three-quarters in arrears of 3/2 favorite Associate, in a solid time of 1:21.36 for seven furlongs.

Later this evening, I'm First, who contrary to his name was no better than third (twice) in five tries at age 2, makes his 3-year-old debut and looks to become winner No. 89 in a first-on-turf effort among modest maiden-claimers at Colonial Downs.

Click here to follow my list of 2010 sales selections.

Alienation fails as favorite, places third in G1 Prioress

2011-07-05T18:40:00.001-04:00

Chef Bobby Flay's Her Smile out-dueled Pomeroys Pistol to win the Prioress S.-G1 at Belmont on Independence Day, as the pair took advantage of a hot pace that left my 2010 sales-tip Alienation once again settling for picking up the pieces in a graded sprint on dirt.

Alienation, who went off as the favorite at a shade over 8/5 odds, made a three-wide bid on the turn and briefly took the lead in the six-furlong dash for 3-year-old fillies. But while she was able to hang on for third by a pair of necks over fellow front-end duelers Quantum Miss and Roman Treasure, she was four lengths short of being a match for the winner and runner-up. Final time for Flay's fleet filly (who paid $16.20 to win) was 1:09.44.

I tabbed Alienation among my top prospects from the 2010 Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training, where she sold for $60,000 as Hip 719. Owned by Natalie Baffert and George Bolton and trained by Bob Baffert, Alienation has earned $160,800 from two wins and three graded-placings in six starts.

I keep hoping that Baffert will send the filly back to the grass, where she broke her maiden at first asking at Hollywood last summer. Since that time, she has three starts on dirt -- second-place finishes in the G2 Adirondack Stakes and the G1 Spinaway, both at Saratoga at 2, and in the Prioress -- and two races on synthetic, an unplaced effort in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes at Hollywood (won by my sales-tip RIGOLETTA) and an easy allowance win first-out at age 3.

Dirt fields, particularly sprints, always seem to have more than one front-running type (whether or not those horses are good enough to last and win), leading to a speed duel that can be hard to survive for all but the classiest of horses. On Sunday at Belmont, the three favorites -- Alienation, Quantum Miss and Roman Treasure, in that order -- burned each other out in fractions of 21.78 and 44.55. Alienation proved the best of those three, but the winner (at 7/1) and place-horse (at essentially 6/1) stalked and closed into those blistering fractions to take the major shares in the outcome.

On turf, particularly going a route of ground, it is possible that Alienation's splendid speed could be used in a more tactical fashion among a field of horses typically less inclined to go all-out from the gate. Her early foot might be used to control a sensible pace, rather than get caught up in one that is suicidal.

We won't know, of course, unless Baffert lets her go back to grass.

In other Fourth of July action, $7,000 sales-tip Alstom (again) nearly cleared his NW2L hurdle in pretty good company, this time falling a neck short in a $75,000 optional-claimer at Churchill in which he was not entered for the tag. Alstom was four-wide on the turn for home, but as is his style closed willingly in the stretch. He led briefly, but just got out-gamed by $21 winner Goodtimehadbyall, with another long-shot, 16/1 Washington's Rules, in third. Alstom paid $13.40 to place and $8.20 to show.

Final time for a mile on fast dirt was 1:35.99.

I shortlisted the colt by Silver Train-Miss Special Salsa, by Mr. Greeley, for a bargain-minded client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale in May. He sold for just $7,000 as Hip 242 and has gone on to earn $51,351 from seven starts by breaking maiden at first asking among special weights at Oaklawn, three times now finishing within a length or less of winning in allowance company, finishing third at Oaklawn and grabbing a third and now a second at Churchill. Alstom has also placed fifth in a pair of stakes races, including the recent G3 Matt Winn run under the Twin Spires.

I have hopes for a change of scenery on this colt's behalf, as well. Current conditioner D. Wayne Lukas takes a string each summer to Saratoga, and Alstom -- a New York-bred -- should be among them.

Click here to follow all 187 of my juvenile sales tips of 2010.

Settling for a new stakes horse: Bibblesman

2011-07-04T01:13:00.004-04:00

Twelve representatives of my sales-tip Class of 2010 went to post worldwide on Saturday, and I felt there was at least a ghost of a chance for the horses to win nine of those races. The day ended without a victory, but with a new stakes-placer -- albeit one that failed as the favorite in a short field.

Bibblesman (Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat) was sent off at 4/5 Saturday afternoon in the seven-furlong, $75,000 Peppy Addy Stakes for PA-breds at Philadelphia's Parx Racing. He and rider Frankie Pennington were pressed for the lead by Der Meister and Oscar Flores, albeit in fairly moderate fractions of 23.12 and 45.37. Bibblesman ran Der Meister off his feet, eventually finishing seven lengths ahead of that rival (and 18/1 Flybird never stood a chance), but in the closing stages, 7/5 second-choice Trade Secret and Stewart Elliott swept by to claim the victory by a length and a half, in a final time of 1:23.56.

It was a disappointing finish; nevertheless, Bibblesman becomes the 20th horse stakes-placed or better worldwide from my 187-horse list of sales recommendations from selected juvenile auctions of 2010; that's 10.7 percent of all selections. Nineteen of those 20 have earned catalog black-type (10.2 percent) and seven are stakes winners (3.7 percent), led by G1-winning 2-year-old RIGOLETTA, who unfortunately was retired early at age 3 due to injury, and her cousin GOURMET DINNER, a G3 winner of nearly $1 million.

Alienation, a G1/G2-placed 2-year-old who won her 3-year-old debut last out by open lengths in an allowance at Hollywood Park, goes for the sales class' second Grade 1 win on Independence Day in the Prioress Stakes at Belmont Park.

I shortlisted Bibblesman as a "Priority 1" prospect on a 48-horse bargain-hunting list for a client at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He sold for just $22,000 and with the $15,000 payday from the Peppy Addy placing has earned $89,860 with two wins and three seconds from six starts for B.P. Reid Stable and trainer Robert Reid Jr.

Click here to follow all 187 of my sales selections.

Decennial, Dominguez sharp in Belmont score

2011-07-02T12:14:00.005-04:00

Overcoming a poor start and some traffic on her way to the front, Decennial strode home under a splendid hand ride by Ramon Dominguez to win by a widening two lengths on turf Friday at Belmont Park.

The Florida-bred Decennial (Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner) now has two wins and a third from three tries going a route of ground on grass in New York. Her only out-of-the-money effort in four starts was sprinting on the inner dirt at Aqueduct in her debut.

On Friday, the chestnut filly lunged at the start. Dominguez snaked her between the two- and three-paths on the back stretch and turn for home while patiently tracking the leaders. He asked her for run to split rivals at the eighth pole, then dove Decennial to the rail with a sixteenth to go and brought her home under "light hand urging" to draw off from second-favored Erma Lee and Jose Lezcano. Final time was 1:37.20 for a mile over firm going.

I tabbed Decennial on this blog as one of my favored, mostly bargain-seeking prospects from last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She sold for just $26,000 as Hip 349, and has now earned $34,900 from four starts in the colors of Blue Devil Racing Stable under the conditioning of Carlos Martin.

Decennial is one of three near-relatives who all proved to be shrewd recommendations of mine out of OBSAPR. Her dam, Romantic Dinner, only won a single race from 30 tries, but became a multiple stakes-producer. Included in Decennial's half-siblings (and Romantic Dinner's produce) are the modest-winning Montbrook mare Almost Aprom Queen, dam of my 2010 OBSAPR sales pick RIGOLETTA (by Concerto, $35,000 Hip 725, Oak Leaf S.-G1, etc., $184,070) and the Pentelicus daughter Potluck Dinner, dam of my OBSAPR selection GOURMET DINNER (Trippi, $40,000 Hip 277, Delta Downs Jackpot S.-G3, etc., $989,660).

Those three close relatives cost $101,000 at the sale and have since combined to win eight times from 18 starts, including four stakes (one G1, one G3) and to place three more times in graded-stakes, for combined earnings of $1,208,630.

Note that Decennial and G3-winning Gourmet Dinner are bred on the same cross; both are by Trippi, with Gourmet Dinner being foaled by Decennial's half-sister.

Click here to follow all 187 of my juvenile sales picks of 2010.

Woodbine 'double' nets repeat winner, new maiden-breaker, and a winning Pick-3 ticket

2011-06-30T18:45:00.000-04:00

Victories in races 1 and 3 at Woodbine Thursday boosted the earnings of a bargain 2-year-old near the six-figure mark, added a new winner to the ranks of my 2010 juvenile sales selections, and let me cash a decent Pick 3 ticket with my sales-tips as singles on either end of the sequence.

Not a bad start to the holiday weekend.

When I saw that recent maiden-breaker Admitit (E Dubai-Fine Day, by Fantastic Light) was facing a small and beatable group in her first try against winners and that maiden Officer's Affair (Officer-Ontheqt, by Mazel Trick) also had a good chance in her third lifetime start and first for a claiming tag, I quickly considered the possibility of a cheap Pick 3 play that relied on my sales tips of more than a year ago coming through as singles on the ticket. I could (and did) scurry over to Remington Park on my lunch break to make the play.

After glancing at the horses in Race 2 of the sequence -- only a five-horse field, but one I thought could be hotly contested -- I just decided to buy that race, for the ticket cost would be only $5 and it would be hard to hit it and still lose money. (Though I managed to do just that last month on an $8 Pick 3 at Penn, when a 1/5 shot -- who had no business going off at 1/5 -- could only manage to dead-heat with a 12/1 horse for the win in R2 of that sequence. My "winning" ticket was worth something like $7.50, while the few who held the other sequence were paid $73.25 for $1.)

Even by buying R2 today (which was won by a horse named Even, matter of fact, who went off as the 6/5 favorite), and though Officer's Affair wound up the 2/1 favorite in Race 3, the ticket paid $43.60, a pretty good score for a $5 wager, which I punched twice. ... My apologies to one particular person probably reading this whom I should've tipped so he could get in on it too, if he wanted.

At any rate, Admitit took 10 tries to break her maiden, finishing second or third in the first eight before finally putting forth a dull effort in career start No. 9. She has bounced back from that first off-the-board effort to win twice in a row during June for owner Saffie Joseph and trainer Ricky Griffith at a $40K tag, among maidens and now among fellow winners.

I recommended Admitit before she sold to Joseph for a mere $20,000 as Hip 1046 at last year's Ocala April sale. She has now banked $96,790 from two wins, five places and three shows in 11 starts on Polytrack and turf, and her 2 1/4-length win on synth today while "taken in hand" by jock Luis Contreras gives every appearance of a filly who can still move forward.

Admitit was bred in Kentucky by Hot Pepper Farm.

After Even disposed of the field in Race 2, I was eager to see the results of Race 3, both to know whether I had a new maiden-breaker from the 187-horse group of sales tips I made last year, and to know whether my wager was going to be returned at a premium rate. I was pleased to learn that Officer's Affair fought clear in the stretch to win by a length and a quarter under Tyler Pizarro, giving me a double-dose of satisfaction.

Officer's Affair was a pricier horse out of the same OBS April sale that produced Admitit; an $80,000 purchase as Hip 224. She was bred in Ontario by Reade Baker Racing Stable Inc., but campaigned now by owners Robert Harvey, A. Wortzman and G. Ledson. She is trained by Sid Attard.

Officer's Affair now has a win from three starts for $19,816. She is the 87th winner from the aforementioned 187-horse group of sales recommendations I made on this blog from various 2-year-old auctions of 2010. That's 46.5 percent of all horses chosen.

Click here to follow the entire class, in the U.S., Canada and worldwide.

Viva Ace regains winning ways at Busan

2011-06-24T18:15:00.000-04:00

Bouncing back sharply from his first out-of-the-exacta finish in eight lifetime starts, Viva Ace rolled to a four-length victory going 1,600 meters in handicap competition Friday at Busan in Korea.

The dark bay gelding by Macho Uno-Dancing Lake, by Meadowlake has now won five of nine career starts and finished second in three others, earning roughly $163,132 in U.S. equivalent. His only out-of-the-money performance was his last out, on May 1, when he finished sixth of 14, beaten about 5 1/2 lengths, in his first listed stakes effort.

I shortlisted Viva Ace as a "Priority 2" offering on a 48-horse list of bargain prospects for a client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. He sold for $20,000 to the KOID (the Korean Racing Authority), which buys horses in the States and ships them to Asia for resale and racing. Viva Ace runs for the stable of owner Hong Kyung Pyo and is trained by Kang Hyoung Gon.

Click here to follow the exploits of the Sales-Tip Class of 2010, in the U.S. and abroad.

Summer night belongs to Sultry Gibson

2011-06-23T23:36:00.003-04:00

Clifford Dooley gunned his filly from the 10-hole at the get-go and Sultry Gibson took a full field of $5,000 claimers practically gate-to-wire Thursday night at Charles Town to score her second lifetime victory.

Snow Ace, starting just inside 5/2 second-choice Sultry Gibson as the No. 9, briefly led in the early strides. But Sultry Gibson had gained a four-length advantage over the field within the first quarter-mile and was still three lengths on top in the stretch. She won by a length and a quarter over 7/5 favorite Get Right To It, who got up for second by a neck over So Serene. Snow Ace hung around for fourth.

Sultry Gibson is owned by Jocelyn Dickey McKathan and is trained by Melissa Hunt. She was bred in Florida by North Star Equine Inc., and has now won twice from 11 starts for $39,685.

I shortlisted the bay daughter of Gibson County-Sultry Peg Cee, by Sultry Song, as a "Priority 3" horse for a bargain-seeking client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. She breezed a solid-for-the-sale 10.3 as Hip 347 at EASMAY, but was withdrawn on sale-day only a few-dozen lots before going through the ring.

While Sultry Gibson has slipped to the $5,000 claiming ranks, she's been a useful racehorse, making 11 starts, winning as a juvenile, once dead-heating for second in allowance company (in a four-horse photo) and taking fourth in a Charles Town stakes race as a 2-year-old.

Follow all 187 of my 2010 juvenile sales selections here.

Newest maiden-breaker leads Father's Day triple

2011-06-19T18:08:00.004-04:00

My Reward overcame a bump at the start and clearly outran her nearly 9/1 odds on Sunday, drawing off to collect her first lifetime win by five lengths in maiden-claiming at Charles Town in West Virginia.

She provided one of three wins on Father's Day for my 187-horse Sales Tip Class of 2010.

The filly came nowhere close at Charles Town in her last out, but that was at a price of 48/1 among maiden special weights. She previously had been third only once from seven starts, in lesser maiden-claiming company at Tampa. But it all fell into place Sunday for My Reward, jockey Antonio Lopez, and owner/trainer Melissa Hunt.

My Reward was bred in Pennsylvania by E&D Enterprises and the Grand Reward Syndicate. She has now earned $12,260.

Working as a hired bloodstock advisor, I shortlisted the filly by Grand Reward-Leelu, by Carson City, as a Priority 3 prospect on a 48-horse list for a bargain-minded buyer at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training. My Reward failed to sell as Hip 217 when the bidding stopped at $16,000. She becomes the 21st winner off that 48-horse list (that's 43.8 percent of a group that collectively sold for less than half the sale average price) and the 86th winner among the aforementioned 187-horse Class of 2010 (46 percent).

Also collecting wins on Sunday were two prior victors from the sales-tip list.

Diannedoesthebooks ($25,000 OBSAPR Hip 1200) won by a nose for owners Michael Dubb and Bethlehem Stables LLC in $2oK claiming company at Belmont Park, and went unclaimed despite being the short-priced favorite. The bay gelding by Desert Warrior-Karakorum Kiss, by Lord Carson, has now won two of three starts lifetime for $32,050.

And, Evangelical ($100K RNA, KEEAPR "second chance deal") won her third race from six starts, cruising by six lengths over a field of $25K claimers at Monmouth for new owners Dennis and Eileen Jacques, who claimed her for $45,000 last-out at the same track, when she finished third. The FL-bred filly by Speightstown-Evangelizer, by Saint Ballado, has now earned $100,330, and the Jacques didn't lose her on the claim.

You can follow my entire list of 2-year-old sales recommendations from 2010 at this prior post.

Bargain-buy Jitalian wins NY-bred allowance

2011-06-19T16:17:00.002-04:00

Persevering in the stretch when the favorite gave up the ghost, Jitalian collected his third lifetime win Saturday, besting state-bred allowance company at Finger Lakes in New York.

Jitalian was sent off at better than 7/1 odds despite finishing third at this same level twice consecutively at Finger Lakes. He and jockey Joel Sone sat a couple of lengths off the pace of 13/2 shot Wana Play (who faded to fourth), and responded in deep stretch when challenged by 9/5 favorite Gold Ghost, a 4-year-old who came on from fifth place to give Jitalian a fright near the wire, but hung in the crucial stages and settled for second, beaten three-quarters. Final time for a mile-seventy run on a track rated "fast" was 1:46.02.

Bred in New York by Aaron Schroeder, Jitalian is owned by David Cramer and trained by Karl Grusmark. He has now won three of 11 starts for $40,962.

I shortlisted the dark bay gelding by Defrere-Sandy Lass, by Line in the Sand, as a "Priority 1" horse at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md.; the lone sale that I've worked as a hired bloodstock advisor. There, he sold for only $7,000 as Hip 301. In his three victories -- including a win maiden special weight at first asking over the Finger Lakes strip, and in claiming company at Aqueduct over the winter -- Jitlian has earned more from each single race than it cost to purchase him.

In other action Saturday, an EASMAY Priority 2 filly, Spring Jump ($19,000 as Hip 234) was second in a $50,000 optional-claimer at Delaware Park. A fellow patron of the Remington Park OTB watching alongside me Saturday was convinced that winner Class E Holiday would be disqualified to last and Spring Jump moved up to the win after a brushing mishap on the turn for home sent Queen Cleopatra's jockey Ricardo Chiappe tumbling on the racing surface. I thought Chiappe appeared to already be losing his seat at the point any contact was made, and stewards apparently agreed, settling both an inquiry and an objection by Chiappe in favor of the winner and her rider, Abel Castellano Jr.

Left to settle for second, Spring Jump has now earned $58,360 from seven starts, including two wins at Parx in Philadelphia and a stakes-placing at 2 over the same Delaware Strip where she gave a good effort Saturday. Owners Dorado Circle LLC have made out pretty well on their investment.

The toughest field tackled by any of my EASMAY grads running on Saturday was the group that faced Alstom ($7,000, Hip 242) at Churchill Downs, where the D. Wayne Lukas trainee was sent off at 17/1 in the Matt Winn S.-G3. As he is wont to do, Alstom settled at the back of the pack and came with some run at the end, but not enough to place, settling for a minor check from a fifth-place finish. He has a win and two thirds from six starts for $40,371, and I wish owners Iron Horse Racing Limited Partnership would send him to New York where the colt would likely be quite a contender among state-bred competition. (Probably even could have been a "Big Apple Triple" contender.)

As it is, were I Lukas I would likely have scratched Alstom on Saturday. The colt's only prior, truly dull effort was on a sloppy Churchill strip, so despite the muddy track's drying out to "good" condition by Race 10 on Saturday, I might well have saved the colt for another day.

Finally of note, prior winner Willie's Way ($12K RNA at OBSAPR) was second in Calder claiming company, and Shackleton Hill ($27K RNA at KEEAPR) was third in a maiden-claiming race at Woodbine.

Follow my entire 187-horse list of 2010 juvenile sales tips at this prior post.

Happy birthday, Red

2011-06-18T05:40:00.002-04:00

They just grow up so fast!

On June 18, 2009, my mare Lady's Wager was foaling a chestnut colt by West Virginia-based sire Inner Harbour.

Today, that youngster -- named All In On Red -- turns the full age of 2 (though officially, of course, he was 2 on Jan. 1 this year).

The photo was shot this week by Sarah Warmack at Hilltop Farm VA, where Red was foaled and will receive his initial breaking and training.

You can see pictures of Red at various stages from age 5 weeks to 2 years on his page at the highly recommended site FoalTrack.com.

Panned Padua prospect gets second lifetime win

2011-06-16T20:45:00.001-04:00

Jaeger, a colt whose purchase I panned after the 2010 Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training, collected his second lifetime win seven starts with a half-length victory this evening at Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania.

I labeled the (now) gelded son of Indian Charlie-The Church Lady, by Valid Wager, as one of eight "surreal" purchases from that KEEAPR auction. While he turned in a fleet 10-flat for an eighth-mile at the sale and does have several blacktype ancestors, I noted that none of those stakes horses from his female family were graded-caliber; in fact, virtually none were stakes-winners or stakes-placed apart from restricted company races or at minor tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park in Canada. Only one horse on Jaeger's entire page (at least at the time of his purchase) had earned more at the track than the $350,000 price Padua paid to get him.

You can credit the horse with a game effort tonight. He stalked a hot pace of 22.30 and 45.50, then persevered to wear down 7/5 favorite Peace Cat, who had inherited the lead at the top of the stretch. Final time for 5.5 furlongs on Tapeta was 1:04.83.

Still, it's hard to look past the fact that a $350,000 2-year-old was sent off at nearly 8/1 in a short, six-horse field of $40,000 claimers, and made it through the race without changing barns. And that he's earned but $46,180 toward paying back that $350K price tag, leaving him a lot of work left to do.

In Padua's defense, with only seven lifetime races under his belt -- and now gelded, "the ultimate equipment change" -- it's an effort from which Jaeger has a right to move forward.

In other "pan" news, Frothy Market, the lone horse I warned against buying out of the 2010 OBS April sale (convinced that her 9 3/5 eighth would inflate her price far beyond her value) had the best finish of her four-race career today as part of an entry at Belmont Park. While Klaravich Stables stablemate Inflation Hedge ran off with the $65,000 maiden-claimer on turf, besting even-money favorite Silver Screamer by a widening 5 3/4 lengths, Frothy Market overcame 46/1 shot Lemme to finish third by a nose, a couple of lengths behind Silver Screamer. Frothy Market, previously unplaced from three starts, has now earned back $5,542 of her $175,000 purchase price.

Finally, also at Belmont Park, one of my shortlisted horses for a client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md., gave a creditable effort in NY-bred allowance company. There Goes Molly came on down the stretch in the one-mile dirt test (just as Molly normally does) to finish third at 32/1 odds, beaten two lengths by 2/1 favorite Lady Vi.

There Goes Molly failed to sell at EASMAY when the bidding stalled at only $6,000. She then filtered down to the capable hands of owner/trainer Randi Persaud after other connections failed to find the winning training combination with her. She now has won twice for Persaud and placed four other times from a sturdy total of 16 starts, for $50,380.

I know which investment I'd rather have on the balance sheet.

Pulgarcito pads record with minor stakes-placing

2011-06-16T17:24:00.001-04:00

A sales-tip colt of mine who was a stakes-winner in the U.S. at 2, on Wednesday picked up a place-finish in a minor stakes race since being shipped to Canada at 3.

PULGARCITO won the Zia Park Governor's Stakes at 2 racing in the colors of Heiligbrodt Racing Stable in the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen. He was claimed from those connections at Oaklawn in April by trainer Murray Duncan and Garylle B. Stewart for $25,000, and the Assiniboia Downs start was his first off the claim.

On Wednesday night for Duncan and Stewart, Pulgarcito was second to long-shot winner U R Burnin Daylight ($39.40) in the $25,000 Golden Boy Stakes at the Winnipeg track. The victor wired the eight-horse field by a length and a half, winning the six-furlong test over a muddy strip in a final time of 1:12.40.

Pulgarcito elevated his career mark to 2-2-1 from nine starts, for $73,095. He was bred in Florida by Edward Seltzer and Murray Durst.

I recommended the (now-) gelding by Greatness-Cat Attack, by Storm Cat, as Hip 849 at the 2010 OBS April sale, where he failed to meet reserve at a bid of $37,000 though he had sold twice before at rock-bottom prices -- $3,000 as an OBSOCT weanling and $3,600 as an OBSAUG yearling. He eventually sold as a juvenile on his second time through the ring, for $40,000 at OBS June, the "last chance" for most 2-year-olds at auction.

It was hard for me to ignore that the fellow was out of a G3 winner and full-brother to a G3-placed turf sprinter, Great Attack, who has earned nearly $170,000.

You can follow all 187 of my 2010 juvenile sales selections in the list at the bottom of this link.

Little Man Arran, and ran, and ran to victory

2011-06-16T17:09:00.000-04:00

One of my juvenile sales tips of 2010 played a role in a "career day" for jockey Anderson Trotman Sunday, as the rider booted home five winners in eight races at Garrison Savannah on the island of Barbados.

Little Man Arran, who made two unplaced starts in Canada at 2 before being shipped to Barbados, gained his first career win in Race 1 at Garrison Savannah Saturday, the first of Trotman's five winners on the card. The colt bested a field of fellow maidens ages 3 and up going 1,570 meters on turf to become the 85th member worldwide of my 187-horse juvenile sales Class of 2010 to become a winner; that's 45.5 percent of all selections. Little Man Arran was sent off the overwhelming favorite at 1/5 odds, coming into the race off a fourth-place effort as a maiden in stakes company.

From what I can tell by information, including past results, at the Barbados Turf Club Web site, I believe Little Man Arran now has a win and a place from eight starts, for total earnings (including in Canada) of about $8,460 U.S. for owners Bill and Hayley Blevins. The dark bay colt was bred in Florida by Claude Morris.

I recommended the son of Golden Missile-Ms. Copelan, by Copelan, prior to his selling for $25,000 to Bill Blevins as Hip 169 at OBSAPR 2010. His dam was a stakes-placed winner of 10 races who has already produced a Monmouth stakes-winning full-brother to Little Man Arran in GARIBALDI. Half-sisters to Garibaldi and Little Man Arran have produced the stakes winners ATLAS SHRUGS and RUN RIGHT THRU.

Follow the updated statistics for each of my 187 sales selections in the list after this prior post.

Dangerous Ghost prevails in Canterbury allowance

2011-06-13T18:58:00.003-04:00

Dangerous Ghost, a $12,000 2-year-old among my 187 mostly bargain-minded prospects from last year's juvenile sales, on Sunday kept up her string of strong efforts at age 3, winning an allowance at Canterbury Park by a hard-fought half-length.

The filly who broke maiden at Remington Park last year had previously finished second in her first two starts during a 2011 "road trip" that has taken her from Lone Star Park in Texas, to Prairie Meadows in Iowa, and now to Minnesota, which is actually where her racing career began a year ago.

On Sunday Dangerous Ghost (Ghostzapper-Katy Kat, by Forest Wildcat) pressed the fast pace set by 6/5 favorite City Wife, who went out in 22.32 and 46.02. As City Wife shortened stride in the stretch, second-favored Dangerous Ghost held on to prevent a mild upset by 5/1 It's Partytime, scoring in 1:05.65 for five and a half furlongs over fast dirt.

Dangerous Ghost now has two wins and three seconds from nine starts, for $29,732 in earnings. Her four unplaced efforts include three tries on grass and a start against colts and geldings in Remington Park stakes company at age 2. She nearly broke maiden in her debut at Canterbury last year, missing by a nose in maiden special weight company before shipping south to Remington.

I recommended Dangerous Ghost before she sold for that paltry price as Hip 1205 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She was bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, and though she "only" breezed 10.3 at Ocala, I liked the blacktype in her female family. Her dam KATY KAT was a Fairgrounds stakes winner, G3-placed, and full-sister to a stakes winner. Her second dam, Kombat Kate, was stakes-placed and a multiple stakes producer. Third dam Caitland retired a maiden, but was a half-sister to G1 winner and sire WILD AGAIN and herself produced four stakes horses (three blacktype winners) including multiple G3 hero LANCE.

You can follow the further exploits of Dangerous Ghost and her 186 classmates on my 2010 juvenile sales-tip list at this link.

Bessie M misses stakes win by a head

2011-06-13T18:36:00.003-04:00

Bessie M came up a head short of becoming a stakes winner in a grueling stretch duel Saturday at Calder Race Course.

I shortlisted the filly by Medalist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat, as a "Priority 2" horse on a list of 48 bargain-priced prospects at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training while working my first (and only) auction as a hired bloodstock advisor. Then named Carolita, she sold for $35,000 as Hip 59 and would have been a "Priority 1" horse on our list were it not for the slow start at stud by her young, Maryland-based sire.

In the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Saturday at Calder, Bessie M stalked the brisk 22.28 opening quarter set by favorite White Merlot, claimed the lead by a half-mile that was run in 45.76, and responded when Beso Grande challenged her in deep stretch. But Beso Grande edged in front at the wire, claiming the $45,000 winner's share of the purse and leaving Bessie M to settle for her second straight blacktype-placing without winning.

Bessie M flattened out in the stretch and was third her last out in the one-mile Regal Gal Stakes at Calder on May 28. Previously, she had won two straight races for current connections Platinum Equestrian Corporation, which claimed her at Gulfstream in January for $25,000, and trainer Antonio Sano.

Bessie M was bred in Maryland by Mr. & Mrs. Charles McGinnes. She now has a 3-3-3 record from 11 starts for $76,024 in earnings.

She is one of three stakes-placers from that list of 48 bargain-priced prospects at EASMAY 2010 (my selections were sold or failed to attain reserve at an average price less than half the sale average), and one of 18 horses stakes-placed or better from my 187-horse list of mostly bargain-minded prospects from several of last year's juvenile sales.

Follow those 187 sales selections in the list at the bottom of this prior post.

Vital Victory maintains newfound winning ways

2011-06-10T19:14:00.003-04:00

After 15 fruitless tries, Vital Victory finally decided that winning was so nice she'd do it twice.

On May 15 at Calder, the filly became the 80th horse from my 2010 list of juvenile sales prospects to clear her maiden hurdle, doing so in her 16th start, for a $12,500 tag. Today at Calder, she stalked the leaders and edged away in the stretch, collecting her second consecutive win by two lengths in $10,000 claiming company.

I recommended Vital Victory (Bwana Charlie-Victory Chime, by Polish Numbers) before she sold for $20,000 as Hip 634 at last year's Ocala April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She was unplaced from eight starts at 2, but has a pair of wins and three second-place finishes from nine starts thus far at 3. ... She's sound enough, at least.

I liked that the filly comes from good female stock; dam Victory Chime was a G3 winner (and stakes producer) and second dam Topacio was champion older mare in Uruguay. Victory Chime has produced several other multiple-winners who, while not always stellar, were sturdy.

Vital Victory has now earned $25,182, at least a little bit more than she cost at the sale.

You can follow all 187 of my 2010 sales recommendations here.

Kuhlu collects win No. 2

2011-06-10T06:48:00.003-04:00

Pressing pacesetter Just Be There from the opening steps and dueling that horse and 2/1 favorite Princes Even all the way to the wire, my 2010 juvenile sales-tip Kuhlu prevailed by a norse in a three-horse photo Wednesday at Arlington Park.

Just Be There held on for second by a head over Princes Even in the $15,000 claimer. Time for about a mile on turf was 1:40.95.

I labeled Kuhlu among my "potential second-chance deals" after she failed to meet reserve at a bid of $22,000 as Hip 26 at last year's Keeneland April sale. Unplaced in one start at 2, she broke her maiden Feb. 6 going 6.5 furlongs on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park for a $30,000 tag. Wednesday's turf win was her second victory in six lifetime starts, earning $16,180 over those races for owner Tommie M. Lewis.

Kuhlu was bred in Kentucky by Dr. Kirk A. Shiner.

I recommended the bay filly by Ghostzapper-Golden Antigua, by Hansel, despite her 11-flat eighth-mile drill at Keeneland, which had to have held down her price. I figured that with Ghostzapper as her sire, the filly would not be the sharpest 2-year-old, but should progress nicely at 3 and 4. She is also the daughter of an Italian turf stakes-placed dam, who also won six times at 4 and 5 in the States, including the Nicole Stakes at Hawthorne and has produced 5-for-5 winners. And, as the half-sister to multiple G3-winner (and AWS track record-setter) GIANT GIZMO and stakes-placed Slick Pardoned Me, Kuhlu comes from a successfully producing female line and should have some prospect as a broodmare herself, even if she never earns her own blacktype.

Follow Kuhlu and the remainder of my 187-member 2010 juvenile sales tips here.

After 10 tries, they finally can't deny Admitit

2011-06-06T07:47:00.006-04:00

Asked nine times at Woodbine, the filly never fully responded to the question, finishing second or third eight times. But on the 10th try, Admitit perhaps came to grips with the truth that winning is the answer.

The filly who had been runner-up five times and had finished third on another three occasions at ages 2 and 3, finally ran a dull race in her ninth lifetime start, finishing off the board for the first time on May 27. But she bounced right back in $40,000 maiden-claiming company on Friday (June 3), looping the field six-wide under Luis Contreras and scoring by a length and a quarter for owner Saffie Joseph Jr. and trainer Ricky Griffith. Final time for seven furlongs over the all-weather surface was 1:24.85.

Admitit (E Dubai-Fine Day, by Fantastic Light) was bred in Kentucky by Hot Pepper Farm. Also placed on turf, she now has a 1-5-3 record from 10 starts for $71,110. She becomes the 84th maiden-breaker from my 187-horse list of juvenile sales recommendations in 2010; that's 44.9 percent.

Despite the frustrating near-misses on the way to breaking maiden -- including a loss by a nose in her debut on June 25, 2010 -- it would be hard to suggest the filly hasn't worked out for Saffie. She was bought for $20,000 as Hip 1046 at last year's Ocala April sale, a price I called "phenomenal" after the filly's 9 4/5 eighth-mile breeze and despite her status as the first foal out of a mare who only raced once. Her second dam was a French Group 3-placed half-sister to MARQUETRY and SPAIN LANE, and to the dam of FIVE STAR DAY. Certainly she was worth a try at the price.

Admitit's win was part of a very successful Friday for my 2010 sales-tip class, a day on which G1-placed juvenile Alienation returned to the races for Bob and Natalie Baffert with a 7 1/4-length romp in an all-weather allowance at Hollywood Park and Lake Believe following up with a 2 1/2-length victory at nearly 10/1 odds in a claimer later on the Hollywood card. Omega Storm was second beaten only a half-length in his 3-year-old debut at Hollywood Park, nearly giving the class a "triple" there. Black Tulip came in second for the third time in her last four tries on turf (including a DQ from a win in Tampa), this time in an allowance at Indiana Downs. Third-out filly Decennial was third in a starter allowance at Belmont Park.

The Bafferts acquired Alienation for $60,000 as Hip 719 at Ocala April and she's certainly panned out, earning $135,800 from two wins and two stakes-placings in five starts thus far. Her victory at Hollywood Friday came in a fleet 1:09.23 for six furlongs.

Lake Believe is a Louisiana-bred that I think would benefit greatly from being sent home to Cajun country. She has two wins and three other placings from seven starts in Southern California, where the open competition is probably at least a bit tougher than statebred fields in Louisiana. Lake Believe has earned $36,820 toward repaying the $37,000 paid for her as Hip 32 at that same OBS April sale that produced Admitit and Alienation.

The rest of the weekend wasn't victorious in North America, though the class did get a pair of "maiden seconds" on Saturday (Christmas Angel first on turf and debuting Elusive Land in maiden special weight company at Woodbine), a maiden-third at Arlington (Seeking the Coach) and another near-miss third by $7,000 2-year-old purchase Alstom, who apart from a win and a stakes-fifth from five starts, has finished in the show-spot in allowance company at Oaklawn and Churchill by the grand total of a length.

You can follow the entire 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010 at this link.

Circumstance a maiden-breaker by clear margin

2011-05-31T22:12:00.005-04:00

Under different circumstances, the filly might have broken maiden as a 2-year-old. As it is, Circumstance cleared that hurdle Tuesday at Parx Racing in Philadelphia, booted home by apprentice Kennel Pellott in her second lifetime start and the first of her 3-year-old season.

Circumstance becomes the 83rd winner from my 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010; that's 44.4 percent. She's now earned $36,900 from two lifetime starts.

Finishing third in the same race and also making her 3-year-old bow was another of my sale selections from last year, Hard Rock Candy, who was 4-for-5 as a runner-up last year at 2. She would have played the bridesmaid again in this race were it not for a late surge by 4/5 favorite Deflate the Bubble, who got up for second by a neck but was still beaten a widening 3 3/4 by Circumstance in 1:10.32 for six furlongs.

Circumstance debuted at Philadelphia Park on Sept. 18 last year, stumbling at the break, being rushed into contention and getting hung wide on the turn, but still hanging on for the show. Second in that race was none other than Hard Rock Candy in a race won by that day's 3/1 favorite, Floating Dream. That race would be Circumstance's only start at 2.

Much like upon my initial recommendation, when I tipped Circumstance as Hip 388 in the 2010 Ocala April sale (from which she was withdrawn before selling), I'll quickly confess that I have soundness concerns for this talented filly. Her sire, 2-year-old champion Vindication, only raced four times in his life. Her dam, Scapegoat (Forty Niner-Old Goat, by Olden Times), was unraced. It instills no newfound confidence that Circumstance only made the single start at 2, has had breaks in her work tab of a month or two here and there, and has been scratched twice at age 3 before finally making her first sophomore start.

Still, I thought (and continue to think) that she'd have been worth a shot at the sale due to some strong female family and what I had expected would be a lower-than-normal price for a talented daughter of short-lived Vindication (a victim of fatal colic at age 8). She had failed to meet reserve at $55,000 as a September Keeneland yearling, and if breeder Gaines-Gentry Thoroughbreds really wanted to sell her at Ocala last year, I suspect they might have had to settle for something short of a triple-digit price. Either Gaines-Gentry decided not to sell her, or possibly a physical issue came up after her 10.2 breeze at the under-tack show; either way, she was withdrawn from OBSAPR 2010.

The dark bay filly clearly has some get-up-and-go, though, and it's consistent with her female family. Her dam is a half-sister to G2 winner HIGHLAND PARK, listed winner ALL ABOUT STYLE and G3-placed Old Bid. Despite not racing herself, Scapegoat has produced eight winners from 12 prior foals. That band of foals includes stakes winners TRES CORONAS and DESCAPATE and stakes-placed Brocco Bry.

Still, the soundness questions do persist. Circmumstance has two full sisters, a 2005 named Whitefield who never raced and a 2007 named Savemyspotimbeting who debuted a winner in January of her 3-year-old season and has only raced twice since. Descapate (Dehere) raced seven times; maidens Erin's Song (Unbridled's Song) and Fearless Wildcat (Forest Wildcat) just twice and once, respectively. Half-brother Giantscape (Giant's Causeway) broke down in training after winning two of his first three lifetime.

A few siblings have trained on, notably the aforementioned Brocco Bry (Brocco), who finished up with 65 starts. Tres Coronas (Chief's Crown), Ignition (Tale of the Cat), Processor (Forestry) and Subscriber (Deputy Minister) all made between 20 and 37 starts.

But early circumstantial evidence (since I'm not privy to her vet bills) suggest that trainer Ronny Werner might have his hands full in keeping Circumstance sound.

Here's hoping that he does, and that if Circumstance does someday enter the Gaines-Gentry broodmare band -- or anyone else's, for that matter -- she, for the love of Round Table, is bred only to sires who were practically bulletproof.

Follow the progress of Circumstance and the other 186 sales-picks in the list at the end of this prior post.

Stakes-winning Signal Alert third in graded debut

2011-05-29T14:15:00.000-04:00

SIGNAL ALERT -- fastest 2-year-old in Trinidad and a track record-setter already at age 3 -- came up short in his graded-stakes debut May 21 in the Santa Rosa Dash-G2 at Santa Rosa Park.

The 1,200-meter race was won by two-time reigning Trinidad Horse of the Year Bruceontheloose in a Santa Rosa track record of 1:09.2. Bruceontheloose is a Jamaican-bred 6-year-old son of Wheelaway. He has now won 14 of 18 lifetime starts in Trinidad according to the Trinidad & Tobago Racing Authority.

Signal Alert was the buzz-horse leading up to the race, blamed for scaring away competition after going 4-for-4 to start his career, including a record-smashing 1:15.90 for 1,300 meters at Santa Rosa Park. But on this day, he lost out not only to the experienced champion, but to a fellow 3-year-old in second-place stablemate Readbetweendlines (Consolidator).

I recommended the son of Omega Code-Southern Alert, by Southern Halo, before he sold for $35,000 as Hip 465 at the 2010 Ocala April sale. He was immediately sent to Trinidad, where he has fared quite well. The colt's 10.1 breeze was attention-getting, and I expected him to be not only fast, but fast early, as his sire was a track record-setter at 2 and his dam set a track record going 4 1/2 furlongs at Prairie Meadows.

You can follow my entire 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010 -- even those racing in Korea, Trinidad and elsewhere abroad -- in the list at the bottom of this link.

Bessie M stamps her page with black type

2011-05-29T13:36:00.001-04:00

Coming in on a two-race win-streak and making her stakes debut, Bessie M made her move on the turn for home but flattened out in the stretch, settling for third place Saturday in the Regal Gal Stakes at Calder Race Course.

Prize Informant led from gate to wire in the $55,000 event, setting sensible fractions of 23.92 and 48.15 on her way to a 2 1/4-length victory at better than 15/1 odds. Dual Calder stakes-winner Blue Eyed Sweetie came on for second. The final time for a mile over a fast Calder track was 1:42.72.

Jockey Jose Alvarez positioned Bessie M perfectly, stalking the long-shot on the rail and swinging out one lane on the turn for home. It looked like Bessie M would go right on by, but she hung, then began losing ground on the eventual winner, and was passed by Blue Eyed Sweetie in the final sixteenth. Bessie M did hang on for third ahead of the favorite, three-time stakes-winner Devilish Lady, thus earning her first catalog black type for owners Platinum Equestrian Corporation, which claimed the filly for $25,000 at Gulfstream in January.

Bessie M is now 3-for-10 lifetime with two seconds and three thirds for $63,024. Though she was competitive prior, she has really caught fire after the claim and the switch to the barn of trainer Antonio Sano.

I tabbed Bessie M as a "Priority 2" prospect on a 48-horse shortlist of potential bargains at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training a year ago. She sold as Hip 59 for $35,000 to William H. Harris, for whom she broke maiden at 2 in a dead-heat at Delaware Park. Harris lost her to Platinum Equestrian on the claim in January.

The filly, then named Carolita, was one of the tallest I inspected at the sale, breezed well (22 2/5 for a quarter) and on the whole was pretty fair conformationally. I liked that her dam, Catalita (Mountain Cat-Carmelita, by Mogambo) had earned $111,226 from 18 starts, albeit not in stakes company, was half to minor black-type herself, and had already produced a winner from two prior foals. Really, the only factor knocking the filly from Priority 1 status to Priority 2 was her young sire, who was off to a slow start.

Seems he's done OK with this one, as are the connections at Platinum Equestrian.

Bessie M becomes the 18th stakes horse stakes-placed or better from my 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010. Seven of those stakes horses are black-type winners, led by GOURMET DINNER ($989,660), his fellow Florida-bred and close cousin, G1 winning 2-year-old RIGOLETTA (Oak Leaf S., etc.), and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-placed DELIGHTFUL MARY (372,377).

Follow all of my 2010 juvenile sales picks, and a handful of pans, in the list at the bottom of this prior post.

Yes He's Innocent breaks maiden at Calder

2011-05-27T18:27:00.003-04:00

Yes He's Innocent was one of the first horses to debut from my 187-selection Sales-Tip Class of 2010, making his first lifetime start on June 18, 2010, at Calder Race Course. On that day, he nearly became one of the class' first winners, as well, losing a hard-fought battle by just a head to a son of Peace Rules named I'm A Playboy.

But injury must have intervened in the young career of Yes He's Innocent. He disappeared from the work tab at Florida's racetracks and training centers. It would be April 8, 2011, before he reappeared in a starting gate.

Four starts later -- in his fifth lifetime try, with two seconds and a third to his credit -- Yes He's Innocent finally grabbed that first win, which had eluded him so narrowly in June the year before. On Friday at Calder, Yes He's Innocent and rider Luis Saez prevailed by a length and a quarter over Urban Tiger and Isaias Enriquez.

Thus, Yes He's Innocent becomes the 82nd horse from my sales-tip class to break his maiden; that's 43.9 percent of all selections. With the win, he lifted his lifetime earnings to $19,446 for owner and trainer Steve Dwoskin, who bought him for $50,000 as Hip 282 at last year's Ocala April sale.

Yes He's Innocent (Yes It's True-Presumed Innocent, by Shuailaan) was bred in Florida by Luis de Hechavarria.

I liked the chestnut colt for more than just his "scintillating" 33.3 breeze, which was logged despite running green in the stretch. I noted that his sire gets 2-year-old runners and winners, with about half of all Yes It's True juveniles racing at 2 (check) and about 20 percent winning at 2 (almost check). On the dam's side, Presumed Innocent was a seven-race stakes winner of $315,190 and was G3-placed. Both her prior foals were already winners, and her dam was also a stakes-placer.

Dwoskin has a ways to go before getting his $50,000 back, perhaps in no small part because of this horse's 2-year-old setback. But Yes He's Innocent still has room to improve.

I thought the class might have another maiden-breaker today as Admitit -- with five seconds and three thirds in eight prior starts -- went to post once again among maiden company at Woodbine. Unfortunately, the $20,000 daughter of E. Dubai, who has already earned over $50,000 without winning, fell back on the turn, had no kick in the stretch, and finished unplaced for the first time in her career. I hope she isn't injured.

Though the link still requires updating, you can follow the sales class here.

Bibblesman makes good in the mud

2011-05-24T11:02:00.004-04:00

On what was roughly the first anniversary of his purchase as a 2-year-old, Bibblesman slogged home well in front of an allowance field on Monday in a muddy race at Parx Racing.

Bibblesman was bought for $22,000 as Hip 337 at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in Timonium, Md., which held its 2011 edition on Monday. In the 12 months since, Bibblesman has made five starts, won twice and placed twice, and has earned $74,860.

On Monday, in a field scratched-down to five runners due to the weather, Bibblesman was sent off as the third-favorite at 7/2 odds. But he won like he should have been 3/5, stalking 4/5 favorite Fersmiley (who bore out and carried Bibblesman wide in the late-going), then Bibblesman drew off to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Final time for six furlongs in the mud was a fast-track-like 1:09.80, which certainly could bode well for Bibblesman's future.

I was surprised Bibblesman was sent off at comparatively long odds in the field. He had a win and two placings from three starts prior this year, was beaten in his last-out when caught at the wire by a 4-year-old in a field of open (i.e., not statebred) NW2L runners, and his last drill was a bullet 48-flat, fastest of 55 on the day.

I short-listed the intact son of Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat, for a client seeking a bargain runner out of that 2010 EASMAY sale. He was unplaced in one start at 2, but is 2-2-0 from four starts at 3. A Pennsylvania-bred, I think the colt has a ton of up-side. He is nominated to the Danzig Stakes for statebreds at Parx, but that race goes off Friday and he almost certainly won't be wheeled-back so quickly. Still, it appears that Bibblesman fits well in PA-bred stakes-company in the future.

The link still needs updating, but you can follow the 187-member sales class here.

Seriously, he did it -- Kid You Not wins in seventh try

2011-05-17T20:34:00.001-04:00

Finding mid-race traffic despite running in a five-horse field, Terry Thompson and Kid You Not bided their time on the rail, then angled into the three-path in the stretch and came storming home for a two-length victory Tuesday at Iowa's Prairie Meadows.

In the process, Kid You Not became the 81st member of my 187-horse Sales-Tip Class of 2010 to break his maiden. He did so in his seventh start, after previously placing four times at Prairie Meadows (last out) and Oaklawn Park. He has earned $28,188 after failing to meet reserve at a mere $12,000 at last year's Keeneland April sale of 2-year-olds in training. That RNA prompted me to name him a potential "Second-Chance Deal" through private sale or should he reappear at a later auction.

Now gelded, the chestnut son of Lemon Drop Kid-Eliza's Time, by Barathea, races for Poindexter Thoroughbreds LLC, trained by Allen Milligan. Kid You Not paid $11.60 to win as the third-favored horse among the five entrants, after the scratch of one horse. His final time for a mile, closing into a modest early pace of 23.26/47.17, was 1:39.92.

While the horse has raced for a tag (and lost among maidens), and while you have to go back to the fifth generation of his tail-female line to find a dam who actually won a race (French-born stakes winner SKYLARKING II), I think Kid You Not still has huge up-side (seriously), and that the connections are quite possibly not racing him on his best surface(s), though, distance-wise, with this closer, I think the connections are making the effort. At least he did get a mile to travel here, but frankly, with this pedigree, the horse is just getting started at eight furlongs.

Sire Lemon Drop Kid was a Belmont Stakes winner (despite being a late-May foal) and his progeny-average winning distance is a lengthy 8.14 furlongs while standing in an American market increasingly dominated by speed. He also gets plenty of turf and synthetic-track horses, including the likes of G1 winners CITRONNADE (grass), RICHARD'S KID (synth) and SANTA TERESITA (synth). Nearly 44 percent of the lifetime earnings of Lemon Drop Kid foals have come on turf, and this season, 13 percent of his progeny's total earnings so far have come on synthetics.

On the other side of the family, Kid You Not's dam-sire, Barathea, was a European Horse of the Year, and while being a miler himself, he was sired by Sadler's Wells, whose progeny average winning distance (per Racingpost.com) is 11.3 furlongs. Second dam Meadow Spirit (dam of 14f San Juan Capistrano-G1 winner SUNSHINE STREET) was by Chief's Crown, now installed as an "Intermediate/Solid" chef de race. Third dam Liberty Spirit (dam of 10f Flower Bowl H.-G1 winner DAWN'S CURTSEY and European turf vagabond Roger de Berksted) was by Classic/Solid chef Graustark. Fourth dam Soaring was the dam of G1 route winners MEHMET and MISS SWAPSCO, the granddam of BALLADE, and is in the tail-female line of the likes of GLORIOUS SONG, SINGSPIEL, SLIGO BAY, DEVIL'S BAG, RAHY, SAINT BALLADO and many others.

That's a lot of two-turn horses and a lot of turf on the female side of the family. I would ship this boy to Arlington at least long enough to see how well he fits on Polytrack and turf at a facility that doesn't have traditional dirt to offer.

At any rate, with the 81st winner, the class now boasts 43.3 percent winners from all selections. You can follow their exploits here.

So now it's important: Vital Victory arrives in Start 16

2011-05-15T20:54:00.005-04:00

One could be forgiven for thinking that the filly's registered name was a misnomer. After 15 starts without graduating, it appeared that Vital Victory thought winning was anything but essential.

But on Sunday at Calder, she broke through.

Despite being steadied on the backstretch and hung out four-wide on the turn, Vital Victory took command at the top of the stretch and drew to defeat a field of $12,500 maiden-claimers. Her margin of victory was 6 1/2 lengths over second-favored One More For Britt, with Mia Rose a grand total of 14 lengths behind in third. So what if the final time for six furlongs over a sealed track (1:14.80) was about 25 lengths off a track record? At least Vital Victory was off the schneid.

The filly was active yet fruitless as a 2-year-old, failing to hit the board in eight starts. But she began figuring out the game at 3, with three runner-up finishes in seven prior tries this year before scoring in her eighth effort of 2011.

In case you stopped counting, that's 1-for-16 with three seconds. Her total earnings have reached $18,002.

The chestnut filly by Bwana Charlie-Victory Chime, by Polish Numbers, was bred in Florida by Thomas-Narlinger LLC & A.R. Properties. She is campaigned by James W. Steil and was ridden to victory by Jose Alvarez for trainer Joseph Calascibetta.

I recommended Vital Victory at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training, where she sold for $20,000 to Mr. Steil as Hip 634. I still think that was a decent price, as the chestnut filly becomes the sixth winner out of seven foals of racing age from the Grade 3-winning Victory Chime. That group includes minor stakes winner GLORIFICATION (Buddha). And, Vital Victory's second dam was Uruguayan champion older mare TOPACIO.

Another item of note is that Vital Victory has shown some of her best efforts in the off-going, which doesn't surprise me much with a Polish Numbers mare as her dam. I can recall, well, a number of Polish Numbers runners splashing home to victory in the past, like Play Bingo's win in the Sussex Handicap at Suffolk and Who Did It And Run's victory long ago in the Garden State Stakes, both in races washed off the turf, and journeyman Toddler's slogging home in front in Aqueduct's King's Point Handicap a decade ago, one of two lifetime stakes victories from his 19 wins in 75 starts. Of course, Polish Numbers offspring also did quite well on grass, so while Bwana Charlie thus far hasn't had a ton of turf winners, it might be worth trying Vital Victory a few more times on the lawn, too.

Also of note: Vital Victory, who was one of the first members of this class of 187 sales selections to make her debut (on July 2, 2010) becomes winner No. 80 from the class; that's 42.8 percent of all selections.

Follow them all at this link.

Two more maidens broken, another horse second again, for the seventh time

2011-05-15T14:45:00.002-04:00

Two maidens broke through with their first career victories Saturday, while a third kept knocking on the door to the Winners' Club without being let inside.

Abrianna, a filly I recommended but who failed to sell at last year's Adena Springs sale in Ocala, Fla., looped the field on the turn for home and swept to victory Saturday at Woodbine in her fourth career start. Also collecting his first win in his fourth start, later in the day, was Back Alley Deal, a gelding I tabbed while serving as a hired bloodstock agent at the May 2010 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in Training, in Timonium, Md.

And, late Saturday night, another Fasig-Tipton May graduate I recommended, Mugsy Dehere, finished second. Again. For the seventh time in nine career starts, all in maiden special weight company at Charles Town.

Abrianna was sent off as the 1/2 favorite at Woodbine as part of an entry with fellow sales-tip Celidonia, both of whom are racing for Stronach Stables after owner/breeder/racing magnate Frank Stronach's Adena Springs was unable to sell them at the farm's Ocala auction last April. That sale took place at Ocala Breeders' Sales Company a day prior to the kickoff of the massive annual OBS April sale. The Ontario-bred Abrianna (Lemon Drop Kid-Ain't She Awesome, by Awesome Again) failed to sell at a bid of $25,000, while Florida-bred Celidonia (North Light-Quatrain, by Quiet American) was a $40,000 RNA. Adena Springs had tried to unload both as yearlings at Keeneland September, as well, with offers of $22,000 for Abrianna and $30,000 for Celidonia also failing to meet reserves.

I waffled a bit on Abrianna, but found it difficult not to like that her dam was a half-sister to "a sick slate of stakes horses," including a pair of Canadian 2-year-old filly champs (POETICALLY and PRIMALY), and G3 winner WHISKEY WISDOM. Chief among those half-siblings to Ain't She Awesome is G1 winner CITRONNADE, who was by Lemon Drop Kid, sire of Abrianna herself.

The filly has panned out rather nicely, with a win and two second-place finishes from four lifetime starts for $63,140. Celidonia, who consistently brought higher bids at auction than Abrianna, remains unplaced from four starts, for $2,188.

Shortly after Abrianna's win at Woodbine Saturday, Back Alley Deal -- a horse I thought was a bit overpriced at EASMAY 2010 -- reached the winner's circle for the first time in a race at Philadelphia Park. I shortlisted the horse, who was Hip 270 at that sale, on a sheet of 48 animals recommended to a client who was seeking an inexpensive prospect. I evaluated the horse after consigner True South touted him as a potential bargain, and while I liked him -- noting his dam was a half-sister to SHARP HUMOR and that he breezed a decent-for-that-sale 10.4 "with a low-to-the-ground action that seemed very efficient" -- I also couldn't help but notice that he was the first foal of a winless dam whose own dam had no real produce record, with only three foals total, none earning over $61K.

I was expecting the horse to be out of our bargain-basement price range (and he'd have been a good buy if he did stay that cheap), but probably not more than $25K to $30K. So, I wrote later, "I swallowed hard when I saw $60,000 on the board for him, and it wasn't even my money." The money belonged to Commonwealth Stable, who no longer owns the chestnut gelding, who was bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall, Haymarket Farms and Dearborn Stable. He's now the property of American Dreamer Stable, trained by Allen Iwinski, and those connections got their pictures snapped at Parx on Saturday.

Back Alley Deal has now earned $14,607.

As the last race of the day for my sales tips (several others, unmentioned here, also went to post), Mugsy Dehere continued beating his head against a door that just won't open. The $40,000 EASMAY purchase (Hip 323, by Dehere-Shadowy Waters, by Wild Again) was a Priority 2 horse on the list for my client. He's now earned $35,880 from nine starts, after once again being out-finished, this time by Hunter Hill.

Nevertheless, the two new winners become maiden-breakers 78 and 79 from my 187-member Sales-Tip Class of 2010. That's 42.3 percent of all selections.

Follow them all here.

Silver Jo wins easily over elders

2011-05-11T18:01:00.000-04:00

Bettors clearly thought Silver Jo the best horse in the field of modest claimers at Delaware Park on Wednesday, sending her off at 1/2 odds, and she didn't make 'em sweat for even a second.

Another owner and trainer thought she was worth the taking at a $7,500 price. Time will tell if they were right.

Silver Jo, a 3-year-old facing seven elders in the field of nine, bolted to a one-length lead immediately out of the gate, got away with pedestrian fractions of 24.11 and 49.08 under superb handling by Victor Lebron, rebuffed mild challenges on the turn for home, then slowly drew off in the stretch to win by 3 3/4 lengths over 4-year-old Government Bailout, a 12/1 shot running for a $5K tag among non-winners of two lifetime. Six-year-old Just Money, second-favored at a little more than 3/1, was third. Final time for the mile-seventy was 1:44.78, well off Distinct Vision's 2003 track record of 1:39.20, but Silver Jo was barely asked.

I tipped Silver Jo out of 2010's OBS April sale, where she went for a mere $12,000 to Midwest Thoroughbreds. Midwest lost her for $7,500 on Wednesday and were maybe a bit surprised, as despite her odds this time she only finished second to a long-shot as essentially the co-favorite at this same level her last time out, while going unclaimed from that April 30 race. Trainer Michael V. Simone dropped the claim ticket this time on behalf of Silver Jo's new owner, Raul Arriagada. Midwest Thoroughbreds have made out all right with Silver Jo, however, getting their pictures taken at Oaklawn Park earlier this year (at the MCL $15K level) and now at Delaware Park, and watching the filly earn her keep by banking $27,030.

I thought the dark bay filly by Silver Train-Bolsa, by Mr. Prospector was a good bet at the juvenile sale, despite her dam's winless 10 lifetime starts and modest produce record so far. At least Bolsa's four prior foals all were winners at some level, her son Bold Vindication has run 41 times and managed to earn nearly $94,000 while only winning twice (and overcoming his sire's four-race fragility), and Silver Jo's second dam was stakes-winning and G1-placed MOCHILA, dam of G1 winner SERAPE. Silver Jo (who was already named at sale-time) also drilled a credible 21 4/5 in the under-tack show.

So, $12,000 looked like a bargain at the time, and two win-photos later, I'd have to say it was. After all, people have been known to spend millions and not even come away with a winning $7,500 "plater," and just five races into her career Silver Jo could still move forward from here. We'll see how the barn change affects her.

Meanwhile, you can follow along with the career of Silver Jo and the remainder of my 187-horse juvenile Class of 2010 in the list at the bottom of this prior post.

Two in a row for Bessie M

2011-05-09T18:35:00.000-04:00

Bessie M on Saturday scored her second straight win and third in nine starts, taking a seven-furlong $25K starter allowance at Calder.

Sent off at about 9/2 in the six-horse field, Bessie M and Orlando Bocachica tracked Luis Saez and Bella Moneta through early fractions of 22.87 and 46.17. Bessie M pounced in the stretch and began edging away from that 4/5 favorite to win by a comfortable 2 1/2 lengths in a final time of 1:25.65 over a strip rated as "fast." It was another five lengths back to second-favored Gorgeous Melody.

Bessie M was bred in Maryland by Mr. & Mrs. Charles McGinnes and now races in the colors of Platinum Equestrian Corporation, which claimed her from William H. Harris. She was trained for the win by Antonio Sano.

The $10,500 paycheck for the victory brings Bessie M's career earnings to $57,524. She has failed to hit the board just twice in nine lifetime starts.

I shortlisted the bay filly by Medallist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat, as a Priority 2 animal on a 48-horse list of bargain prospects at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale at Timonium, Md. I would likely have considered her a Priority 1 horse but for the slow start at stud by her sire, who at the time had only 10 winners from 59 foals in his first crop. She's certainly flashing the talent that was previewed in her 22 2/5 quarter-mile breeze at a sale where the Timonium fairgrounds track was playing quite slow. Harris bought the filly, then named Carolita, for $35,000, and earlier this year lost her for $25,000 on the claim at Gulfstream.

To follow my 187-horse juvenile tip-list from 2010, check out the complete list at the bottom of this link.

Named for ancient ruins, Volubilis is newest winner

2011-05-09T18:21:00.000-04:00

Coming out sharp after two unplaced efforts in the maiden-claiming ranks and overcoming a difficult post position and wide trip, Volubilis on Friday became the 77th winner from my sales-tip Class of 2010.

Volubilis is an archaeological marvel in Morocco, the site of what are considered the most well-preserved Roman ruins in that part of North Africa. This Volubilis is a chestnut son of Songandaprayer out of the graded stakes-winning Corporate Report mare Queen of Money.

The gelding was fifth in his debut at the maiden-claiming $10K-$9,500 level in April, then was bumped way up to MCL $25K-$23K, where he finished next-to-last. Back down among his original friends, he broke from the 9-hole in a 10-horse race, was four- to five-wide on the turn, and still charged on to cover six furlongs on Polytrack in 1:11.59 and score by a length and a quarter under Jesse Campbell. Sent off at a bit of a price, Volubilis paid $19.60 to win.

Volubilis was bred in Kentucky by Mueller Farms Inc., and is trained by Arthur Silvera. He becomes the eighth winner from nine foals of racing age out of his dam (including two stakes winners, a stakes-placer, and a fourth foal who became a stakes-producer) and Volubilis has now earned $9,787 from three starts.

Off his familial strength and a 10-flat eighth, I recommended Volubilis out of the 2010 OBS April sale, where he went to David Rowbotham for $28,000 as Hip 307. Rowbotham campaigns the horse in an ownership group with several other principals.

With Volubilis' victory, the 187 member sales-tip class now boasts 41.2 percent winners from all selections. While the link still requires some updating, you can follow the sales class here.

There Goes Molly, splashing to another victory

2011-05-04T18:25:00.004-04:00

Biding her time behind the front-runners and taking a wide berth around the final turn, There Goes Molly splashed to an easy victory Wednesday afternoon over a sloppy track at Belmont.

Though sent off at 7/1 and paying $16 to win, There Goes Molly won like a 4/5 shot in the field of $10,000 claimers. In a hand-ride by Eddie Castro, she overhauled the early leaders despite their benefiting from sensible early fractions (23.33, 47.24) and scored by an easy 6 3/4 lengths over 3/1 second-favored Red to Positive. Third-place Sweethearts Kiss was nearly 20 lengths behind the winner in a final time of 1:39.51.

It was the second lifetime win for There Goes Molly, who has earned $43,836 from 12 lifetime starts. The bay filly by Chief Seattle-Hey Darla, by Evansville Slew, was bred in New York by Pegasus Farms Inc. She is now owned and trained by Randi Persaud.

I shortlisted There Goes Molly as a Priority 1 animal on a list of 48 recommendations at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training, where she failed to sell on a mere $6,000 bid as Hip 176. Though quite closely inbred (2x3) to Seattle Slew, she was relatively clean and straight, and breezed 11-flat, which was a fair time at EASMAY over a slow track. All three of her older siblings had started, two were already winners (now all three are), and I admitted later on this blog being shocked that this half-sister to stakes-winning R BETTY GRAYBULL (who has now earned nearly $430K) couldn't bring more than a $6,000 bid.

On Wednesday, I liked Molly's chances in the group she faced, despite her 10/1 morning-line odds. And I thought she should move up in the slop, as she'd placed over off-tracks prior. Clearly, she loved the conditions, and won for fun despite running on the wrong lead until deep in the stretch.

It's fair to say that Molly has come alive under the training of Persaud, as well, with a second-place finish and now two consecutive wins since apparently being sold to Persaud privately by prior owners and coming over from the barn of Leo O'Brien. Molly has scratched-out of a couple of races since her mid-April maiden-breaker, but usually because she was entered "main-track-only" in turf events that stayed on the grass. Clearly Persaud has the filly dialed-in pretty well and was working very hard to find her another race.

To follow the exploits of There Goes Molly and the 186 other horses I selected from several of last year's juvenile sales, check out the complete list at the bottom of this prior post.

Prize Doll takes Tampa turf trial among maidens

2011-04-30T23:59:00.008-04:00

Stakes horses proving just a bit too tough, Prize Doll found fellow non-winners a bit more to her liking. She came away with her first lifetime victory on Saturday, winning by two lengths over 70/1 long-shot Marciane in a turf maiden $40K event going a flat mile at Tampa Bay Downs.

I recommended the chestnut filly by Pure Prize-Doll Baby, by Citidancer, as Hip 970 at last year's OBS April sale, where she failed to sell for a top bid of only $17,000. She debuted at age 3 in stakes company, finishing last of six, but within hailing distance of the others, in the OBS Sprint S. (filly division) at Ocala Training Center, a race in which fellow sales-tip Take Me To Zuber ($28,000 OBSAPR Hip 629) was second.

Ridden by Daniel Coa on Saturday at Tampa, Prize Doll got a shot at nine of her fellow maidens and made good on it, running down the potential shocker Marciane in the stretch to win by a widening two lengths in 1:38.93.

Prize Doll was bred in New York by Edward Seltzer and David Cassidy. She is trained by Curtis Garrison for Seltzer, who campaigns her solo. The win earned Prize Doll $8,700.

She becomes the 76th of my 187 juvenile sales selections of 2010 to break maiden; that's 40.6 percent.

In other Saturday sales-tip results, Wrapped in Gold (Touch Gold-Miss Ginalie, by Skip Away, $10,000 OBSAPR Hip 139) won a claimer going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt at Hawthorne. She has two wins from nine starts for $15,716. Silver Jo (Silver Train-Bolsa, by Mr. Prospector, $12,000 OBSAPR Hip 814) was second among NW2L claimers at Delaware Park, and Vital Victory (Bwana Charlie-Victory Chime, by Polish Numbers, $20,000 OBSAPR Hip 634) was a distant second among maiden-claimers at Calder.

Meanwhile, on Friday in Korea, Kidari Joe (Tiznow-Trickle of Gold, by Formal Gold, $20,000 OBSAPR Hip 545) won his third race in six starts at Busan; he's earned about $84,140 in U.S. equivalent. In that same "Foreign Class 3" race, Fleeting Joy (Kitten's Joy-Speedy Sunrise, by Cherokee Run, $7,500 OBSAPR Hip 476) finished third. Fleeting Joy has earned about $48,909 with one win and four other placings from nine starts.

Follow all 187 sales picks, and nine that I panned, at the bottom of this prior post.

Bessie M wins N1x by daylight

2011-04-29T18:39:00.003-04:00

Bessie M, a filly I recommended to a client at least year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds, picked up her second lifetime victory in eight starts Friday at Calder, sitting off the pace and pouncing in the stretch to win by a widening six lengths over 3/5 favorite Wild Bout Tiffany.

Sent off as the second choice, but at nearly 5/1, Bessie M paid $11.40 to win, though only $3.80 to place and $2.80 to show. She was expertly ridden by Jose Alvarez, who relaxed the filly behind early fractions of 22.47 and 46.90 and sat seventh of eight at the half as the favorite was hounded by Truly Classy, Miss Maggie Girl and My Mama Gator, who finished 3-4-5 behind the exacta. While Wild Bout Tiffany put away all her early challengers by 2 1/2 lengths or more, she was spent in the stretch, where Bessie M did her running. Final time for six furlongs in N1x company was 1:13.2.

Bessie M earned $15,000 for the victory, bumping her lifetime earnings to $47,024.

She was bred in Maryland by Mr. and Mrs. Charles McGinnes, and was purchased for $35,000 by William H. Harris at last year's EASMAY sale. She broke maiden in a dead-heat with Feelin Abit Frisky for a $40K tag at Monmouth on Aug. 20 last year, in her second start for Harris' barn. Harris lost her in a $25,000 claim to Platinum Equestrian Corporation in January at Gulfstream, and those connections were the winning owners today, with Antonio Sano the trainer of record.

I tipped the filly by Medallist-Catalita, by Mountain Cat, after a 22 2/5 quarter-mile breeze over a slow surface at EASMAY. I generally liked the way she was put together and the time certainly was eye-catching, though on the whole I gave her only Priority 2 status (on a scale of 1-4), mostly due to her young sire's slow start.

In other sales-pick (and pan) news, Akkadian, a Tiznow colt whose $270,000 purchase price I criticized following the April 2010 Keeneland juvenile sale, collected his second lifetime win on Thursday afternoon at Hollywood Park. After stalking the pace, he got up to win by a neck in a one-mile turf allowance, beating Brazilian-bred Great Warrior.

I thought $270,000 was too much for a horse who admittedly (after seeing him lately) looks phenomenal, but whose female family's history was spotty. One had to reach back to the fourth generation on his catalog page to find a graded winner. However, with two wins in four starts and $77,760 banked, the horse is on his way to panning out for owner Gary Broad, who has campaigned his share of good horses.

Only $200,000 more to go to pay back that purchase price.

The link needs some updating, but you can follow all the picks and pans here.

What's the rush? ... Sales selection What's the Rumpus breaks maiden in his 13th career start

2011-04-26T18:43:00.003-04:00

When I selected 187 juveniles from several of last year's 2-year-old sales, I thought the gray or roan colt by Mizzen Mast-Gypsy, by Marfa -- who was a $32,000 RNA at last April's Ocala sale -- would be among the first to break his maiden.

The horse who would be named What's the Rumpus actually became maiden-breaker No. 75 today, in his 13th lifetime start.

I was high on this horse's chances because of his underrated sire, Mizzen Mast, and the fact that his stakes-placed dam was already the producer of five winners from six foals, including G3-placed GAL ON THE GO (Irgun), who in turn produced dual G3 winner SOCIAL QUEEN (Dynaformer). This horse's first three dams all earned their own black type, and his dam, Gypsy, is a half-sister to G1-winning, $4.7 million-earning PERFECT DRIFT, one of my all-time favorites. The sales colt, now gelded, breezed a credible 22-flat for a quarter at OBSAPR, and his work tab after being shipped to the California barn of Doug O'Neill was initially pretty good.

Despite flashes of ability, What's the Rumpus only managed to place twice and show twice from 12 prior starts. Though placed in California, he was shuffled off to Turf Paradise, then Sunland Park, and finally Sunray Park in Farmington, N.M., where he won today for a $6,250 claiming tag.

At least he won for fun.

What's the Rumpus, sent off as the 3/1 third choice in a field of eight, pressured early leader Sexy N Wild, then pounced at the top of the stretch, drawing off to win under jockey Kelsi Purcell by seven lengths over 9/5 favorite First Date. Final time for seven furlongs over a muddy-sealed track was 1:26.95.

What's the Rumpus was bred in Kentucky by Darrell Brown and James E. English. He is now owned by his trainer, Kenneth K. Chadborn Jr., in partnership with Cody Kelley. The gelding has earned $16,600 from his 13 lifetime starts.

As noted, with the win What's the Rumpus becomes the 75th of my 187 juvenile sales-tips to clear his maiden hurdle; that's 40.1 percent.

The link needs some updating, but you can follow all 187 of those picks -- and a few pans -- at the bottom of this prior post.

Decennial wins in start numero dos

2011-04-22T18:05:00.005-04:00

Decennial is a winner, and it certainly didn't take her 10 years. Nor even 10 starts.

The chestnut filly by Trippi-Romantic Dinner, by Who's For Dinner rated patiently in fourth place for jockey Channing Hill Friday in a maiden-claiming field going a mile on turf at Aqueduct. When the group straightened out for home and easy early leader Galaxy Jet ran out of gas, Decennial easily powered away from fellow stalkers One Spring Storm and Mean Reversion to win by a widening four lengths over Point Gammon.

Decennial clears her maiden hurdle in her second lifetime start, having missed the board in her one prior effort. She earned $12,000 for the MCL $16K win at a mile on turf for trainer Linda Rice and owner Blue Devil Racing Stable, running her lifetime bankroll to $12,400. The filly was foaled in Florida and bred by Ocala Stud.

I recommended Decennial prior to her purchase by Vina Del Mar Thoroughbreds for $26,000 as Hip 349 at last year's OBS April sale of 2-year-olds in training. She hails from a female family that I turned to three times during my analysis of that sale -- and all three are now winners, two of them of graded stakes.

Decennial is very closely related to G3 winner GOURMET DINNER, who is also sired by Trippi and out of Decennial's half-sister, Potluck Dinner (Pentelicus). I recommended Gourmet Dinner from that same OBSAPR sale and he won four of eight for over $989,000 before falling off the Kentucky Derby trail with, initially, scarcely a trace. Now the connections say he has a sore shin. ... Gourmet Dinner sold for just $40,000 to co-breeder William J. Terrill when he and Ocala Stud cashed-out their partnership last April by running him through the sale.

Another of Decennial's half-sisters, Almost Aprom Queen (Montbrook), produced a G1-winning 2-year-old of last year RIGOLETTA (Concerto), who earned $184,070 before being retired at 3 with what in some places has been described as a tendon injury. I recommended her as Hip 726 at OBSAPR, where she sold for just $35,000 to Erik and Pavla Nygaard's Thor-Bred Stable, and clearly now is worth more as a broodmare prospect than it's worth to rehab her and keep racing her, perhaps at less than her best.

Beyond all the recent stakes performers, Decennial already was a half-sister to G3-placed SEA OF GREEN ($651K earned) and LADY GIN ($227K). With all that black type on the page, it's a little surprising she could be entered for $16,000 in only her second start and make it through the race unclaimed. She won like she was worth at least a few pennies more than that.

I suppose my primary concern now would be soundness, as both Gourmet Dinner and Rigoletta (who admittedly was pigeon-toed) have apparently experienced issues.

Note that I took a pass at OBSAPR on Hip 841 from this family, a gelding by Concerto (as was Rigoletta) out of Decennial's half-sister Candlelightdinner, by Slew Gin Fizz. Now named VUELVE RUBEN M, he won four times in seven starts in Puerto Rico at age 2, including at least two stakes races, for $102,660.

Four foals from the immediate female family in the same sale, four winners, three stakes winners, two graded in the U.S. ... Despite the physical woes experienced by two of the foals (and I sure hope Gourmet Dinner bounces back), that's pretty serious production.

Friday's racing almost produced another maiden winner from my Sales-Tip Class of 2010. Herecomeseveryman was sent off as the favorite but beaten by a head in a turf-claimer at Gulfstream Park. Francisco's Boy, another member of the class, missed the break and finished sixth beaten 5 1/4 in the same race.

Decennial becomes the 74th winner from my 187-horse list of juvenile recommendations from last year's sales; that's 39.6 percent. Though the statistics need a little updating, you can follow the class in the list at the bottom of this former post.

Say 'Hi' to winner No. 73

2011-04-17T21:02:00.004-04:00

Sand Hi outran his odds of nearly 14/1 Friday at Busan in Korea Friday to nab a half-length victory over second-favored Book Seven (13/2), in the process becoming the 73rd horse to break maiden worldwide from my Sales Tip Class of 2010.

I shortlisted the gelding by Stormy Atlantic-Hay Lauren, by Hay Halo, for a client at last May's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in training at Timonium, Md., where I considered him a "Priority 3" priority on my 48-horse list. The Murray Smith consignee sold for $20,000 at EASMAY, and was shipped to Korea, as were a number of my selected bargain hopefuls from several of last year's sales.

His first win came in his sixth start, with two prior third-place efforts to his credit. He has now earned $27,265. Sand Hi becomes the fifth of 12 sales selections sent to Korea to break maiden there, in a jurisdiction where 2-year-olds routinely race against older horses and maidens sometimes run against winners until those winners have banked enough bucks to move up out of "Class 4."

Sand Hi's win could have been just the first of many over the weekend for my sales-tip class, but fate wasn't on their side in races all over the United States and Canada. The class had seconditis this Saturday and Sunday, with five maidens finishing second in their respective races over the two dates: Abrianna by a length and a half among special weights at Keeneland; Vital Victory by a half-length for a tag at Gulfstream; Admitit by a length for a $50K tag at Woodbine, her fifth "place" to go with three "shows" from eight lifetime starts; Mugsy Dehere losing by two lengths among special weights at Charles Town (his sixth time in eight starts); and Uncle Carm being beaten a neck among special weights at Keeneland on Sunday.

Admitit, a $20,000 OBSAPR purchase, has earned $51,460 and Mugsy Dehere, who went for $40K at EASMAY, has banked $30,680, each without winning a race.

The seconditis this weekend extended to races among winners, as well, with Black Tulip being beaten a half-length among $50K claimers on turf Sunday at Keeneland.

Meanwhile, at Oaklawn Park Saturday, a late-running Alstom had his momentum stemmed coming off the turn for home, and by the time he angled out to find running room, he ran out of ground before grabbing a piece of the pie in the $100,000 Northern Spur Stakes. The $7,000 EASMAY purchase broke maiden at first asking earlier in the Oaklawn meeting among special weights, collected a fast-closing third beaten less than a length for first in allowance company next-out, and finished just a nose and a neck out of third in a stakes field in his third-ever start. I'm none-too-secretly hoping his owners, TBS Farms LLC, will send the son of Silver Train to Belmont and Saratoga for the rest of spring, summer and fall, so he can compete among his NY-bred brethren, as he's done well already in open company and there should be money to be banked in his home state.

With its 73rd winner, the Class of 2010 now boasts 39 percent winners from all 187 selections.

While the link does need some updating, you can follow the Class of 2010 here.

Revenge is sweet; takes short field at long price

2011-04-15T18:38:00.005-04:00

Lime Rock Revenge, off from the races since being scratched from a start at Del Mar in late July last year, on Friday afternoon at Santa Anita looked like a horse who hadn't missed a beat.

And he wasn't going to be beaten.

The 3-year-old gelding broke maiden in his second start for trainer Doug O'Neill last year, then was scrubbed from a starter allowance at Del Mar and clearly needed some time off to overcome an injury or ailment. He went back into training late in December and has ramped up the work schedule since, with recent drills of a minute flat, 47-flat and 1:12.20 for five, four and six furlongs since moving from the synthetic at Hollywood Park onto the dirt at Santa Anita leading up to this start.

Still, he was sent off at nearly 8/1 odds this afternoon (equal to the morning line) in what was to be a five-horse field of $50,000 claimers that was scratched down to four. And Lime Rock Revenge promptly won like he should have been the favorite.

Kerwin John hustled Lime Rock Revenge from the gate to engage 6/5 favorite (and three-time winner) Montellano every step of the way. John's comeback gelding was on the lead at each call through blistering fractions of 21.24 and 43.70, which probably raised the confidence of Martin Pedroza aboard Chinese Praise and Rafael Bejarano aboard First Strike as they trailed the leaders through a seemingly suicidal pace.

Montellano folded. Lime Rock Revenge most certainly did not.

With Chinese Praise hitting his best best stride late -- and having covered the first six furlongs in a withering 1:08.98 -- Lime Rock Revenge dug deep enough to stay in front by a half-length at the wire over the closer. First Strike was five lengths beaten in third, while Montellano came home 18 1/2 lengths in arrears of the long-shot who ran him off his feet. Final time for 6 1/2 furlongs was a solid 1:15.86.

He paid $17.20 to win in a four-horse race.

The son of Limehouse-Genie's Flight, by Silver Hawk, was bred in Florida by A. Claire Silva and now has earned $39,400 from two wins in three California starts, with victories over synthetic and conventional dirt.

I recommended Lime Rock Revenge out of last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. April auction of 2-year-olds in training, where he was a $16,000 RNA when run through the ring as Hip 1082. He was already gelded, perhaps decreasing interest in him as he'd never be a stallion prospect. But I liked that while his 15-race-maiden dam was never a winner, she'd already produced 11 winners from 13 prior foals (including stakes winner SILVER ON SILVER) and Lime Rock Revenge's second dam, T. V. Genie, was a G3-placed half-sister to five-times Horse of the Year KELSO.

If they can keep him sound, he just might be serious business.

Follow the sales-tip class at this link.

There Goes Molly ... to the winner's circle

2011-04-15T18:11:00.004-04:00

There Goes Molly -- who was a $6,000 RNA when I recommended her in a search for bargain horses at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale -- on Friday afternoon staged a long drive to win for the first time, in her 11th career start.

The 3-year-old filly by Chief Seattle-Hey Darla, by Evansville Slew, was bred by Pegasus Farms, and is now owned by trainer Randi Persaud, who has conditioned her for the last two starts after picking her up from the barn of Leo O'Brien. She has been second for MCL $10,000 and now first at MCL $16,000 for Persaud, today piloted by Abel Lezcano.

Lezacano put the whip to Molly leaving the gate this afternoon, but soon let her settle into a stalking position, in fifth place and about two lengths back of the leaders of the eight-horse race. Molly swung wide entering the stretch, left favored Tillie's Girl and Cornelio Velasquez who had been stalking the leaders with her, then rolled right on by Unbridled Toga and Eddie Castro, who had set pressured fractions of 22.93 and 46.78.

There Goes Molly covered the six furlongs in 1:12.23 and won by a widening 2 1/4 lengths.

The filly does have a closing style and I thought she might need more ground to eventually break through, but today was her day.

Though at the time I was a bit uncertain of selecting a horse inbred 2x4 (to Seattle Slew in this case), I shortlisted this filly for a client at EASMAY because she was fairly clean and straight upon inspection, breezed 11.0 for an eighth at a sale where that was average, and I thought she'd stay fairly inexpensive even though she is a half-sister to (now) nearly $430,000-earner R BETTY GRAYBULL (Holy Bull). In fact, she was a "Priority 1" selection on that list of 48 prospects, among the 17 I rated most highly. We were in the market for one horse and had already bought by the time this filly went through the ring at Hip 176. Despite tabbing her as a potential bargain, I was surprised that she only brought a top bid of $6,000, and I had it on the consigner's authority afterward that it wouldn't have taken much more to meet the reserve.

There Goes Molly, a May 2 foal, now has a win and three other placings from 11 starts -- many of them in decent company at Saratoga and Belmont last summer and fall -- for $31,236.

She becomes the 72nd winner from my 187-member Sales Tip Class of 2010; that's 38.5 percent.

Though the link needs some updating, you can follow along with the class, and a handful of horses I took a stand against, at this link.

Captain promoted in first skirmish

2011-04-13T19:13:00.004-04:00

It was far from a fearful trip at Keeneland Wednesday when Captain My Captain led every step of the race and won by a length to break maiden in his career debut.

I selected the gelding from last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. February auction of select 2-year-olds in training. He sold there for $85,000 as Hip 7 to the noted Dogwood Stable, who have taken their time with the horse. But he was clearly ready to fire for trainer George Weaver and red-hot jockey Javier Castellano. Captain My Captain's last drill prior to Wednesday's start was clocked in 46-flat, from the gate, not just the fastest time of 86 horses to work four furlongs on that date at Keeneland, but fastest by a second and two-fifths.

The son of Officer-Purer Than Pure, by Turkoman, on Wednesday set fractions of 22.19, 45.87 and 1:10.99 over the Keeneland Polytrack, and stopped the clock at the wire of the 6.5-furlong test in 1:17.58. He was sent off at a shade over 6/1 and paid $14.20 to win.

Captain My Captain -- who was a $95,000 weanling but a $55,000 RNA as a yearling -- was bred in Kentucky by White Fox Farm, Louis Brooks Ranch, and Serengeti Stable LC, et. al. I liked him on pedigree even before he breezed a sharp 10.1 at OBSFEB -- more than a month prior to his actual second birthday, as an April 6 foal. While his dam's production has dwindled of late, her prior foals include seven winners from 10 foals (all to race), and three of those winners have earned black type, including G3 victor PURELY COZZENE, stakes winner and G1-placed ERICA'S SMILE, and stakes-placed Forestry Prince.

He becomes the 71st winner from my 187-member sales-tip Class of 2010; that rounds up to 38 percent of all selections.

Though the link needs a little updating, you can follow the class here.

The Fed 'eases' his way into graded-placed ranks

2011-04-11T18:54:00.004-04:00

My sales-tip Class of 2010 acquired its 17th stakes horse Saturday when The Fed Eased came home third in the Illinois Derby-G3 at Hawthorne Race Course.

The Florida-bred colt was running in second behind eventual winner Joe Vann until deep stretch, but flattened out and was caught a few yards short of the wire by a maiden, Zoebear, who has now managed to finish second four times in six starts without winning. Final time for the 9 furlongs was 1:51.91.

I recommended the son of Montbrook-Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out as Hip 7 in last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. February auction of 2-year-olds in training, where he went unsold when the high bid of $65,000 wasn't enough to meet reserve. After running second in his debut then breaking maiden convincingly on Jan. 29 at Aqueduct, he was tossed into Grade 3 company in the Gotham Stakes, which he led until fading to fifth in the mile-and-a-sixteenth test behind eventual victor Stay Thirsty and others.

Saturday's Illinois Derby was thus just the colt's fourth lifetime start. I honestly expected him to fold in the stretch of the mile-and-an-eighth distance Saturday, but he got by on enough talent and guts to hold off all the closers but one. Still, I think The Fed Eased as a son of an accomplished sprinter (and sire almost exclusively of sprinters and milers) with a dam-side that is most recently composed of 6f-9f horses, that the colt will be at his best at a mile or perhaps shorter.

With the placing, The Fed Eased now has a 1-1-1 record from four starts, and $71,790 banked. He becomes the second blacktype-placd foal for his dam, who also produced juvenile stakes-placed Sweet Enticement (Drewman). Of note, The Fed Eased is from the same female family as another of my sales selections, OBS Sprint S. (filly division)-placed Take Me To Zuber, who is a half-sister to this colt's dam.

Follow the sales class at this link.

Evangelical wins sophomore debut, earns converts

2011-04-11T18:00:00.001-04:00

Evangelical, a filly I identified as a top prospect from last year's Keeneland April sale, collected her second win from four starts and her first of 2011 on Saturday in a claiming race at Gulfstream Park.

The daughter of Speightstown-Evangelizer, by Saint Ballado had been scratched from a Florida-bred allowance race on April 2 before returning on Saturday and being sent off as the roughly 8/5 second-favorite in a $35,000 claimer. She and Elvis Trujillo made short work of the group, including 6/5 favorite Surmount, taking the lead from the gate and setting fractions of 22.85 and 45.98 on her way to winning by four and a half lengths in a clocking of 1:09.92 for six furlongs. The Equibase chart says Evangelical "drew away while in hand."

Surmount came home second, and both fillies were claimed; Evangelical from North Shore Racing by trainer Joseph C. Catanese III for JMJ Racing Stables LLC, and Surmount from Wildcat Thoroughbred LLC by new trainer and owner Paul Kopaj. I didn't think Evangelical had a prayer of making it through the race unclaimed, so I can only presume that North Shore Racing and trainer Barclay Tagg decided they were ready to part with the filly, who had been a $100,000 RNA at KEEAPR 2010.

OBS April sales-tip Take Me To Zuber, who recently placed second in the OBS Sprint S., fillies division, was fifth in the same race.

If Evangelical isn't nursing an injury, she could be quite an aquisition for JMJ Racing Stables. In four starts, she has two wins and two seconds, completing the exacta twice in maiden special company last year before breaking through with her first win in similar company at Belmont's fall meeting. She has earned $76,830 from four starts, and 1:09.92 "in hand" is a promising return to the track for a filly that, honestly, I had expected to eventually be among the stakes horses from my Sales Tip Class of 2010.

I do have durability concerns for Evangelical, whose winning dam raced just three times, and whose G3-winning second dam made but 10 starts. But I liked her compact, muscular build, and the 10.1 breeze was fast, though perhaps not effortlessly so.

I wrote at the time: "You want to see a horse who is running fast when he looks like he isn't, and from the video, this filly doesn't exactly fit that bill. From the instant I saw the clip, I thought, 'Wow, it looks like she's running fast.' Thankfully, the time agreed that she was."

So did the stopwatch on Saturday. And, if JMJ Racing Stables can keep Evangelical on the straight-and-narrow, future race-day clockings will probably reconfirm the observation.

Follow Evangelical's career, and the other 186 sales-tips of mine, at this link.

Unstoppable Mick splashes to sales tips' 100th win

2011-04-09T10:54:00.006-04:00

A 3-year-old gelding that I tabbed as a "steal" of last year's Keeneland April sale, where he was bought for $10,000, sloshed his way to a second career victory Friday night in allowance company at Mountaineer Park.

In the process, Unstoppable Mick scored the 100th victory by my 187-member sales-tip Class of 2010.

Unstoppable Mick broke his maiden for KEEAPR buyer Connie Apostelos by a wide margin of 10 1/4 lengths at Turfway Park on March 18, for a $15,000 tag. The gelding had hit the board in four of five starts to that point, but earned only $9,429 in the process due to Turfway's second-rate purse structure.

He was claimed from that easy, all-weather-track win by trainer Rodney C. Faulkner for new owner Frank Irvin, who wheeled him back 20 days later in allowance company at the West Virginia track not too far away, and for a bigger total purse of $20,200. Twelve days short of his actual third birthday (he was foaled April 20 in Kentucky) and in a nine-horse field that included seven 4-year-olds, Unstoppable Mick was sent off as the roughly 3/2 favorite at Mountaineer Friday. He proved worthy of the bettors' confidence, circling the field five-wide on the turn and slogging home 7 1/2 lengths the best under urging by Ernesto Oro. The win was worth $11,918, bumping Unstoppable Mick's career earnings to $21,347.

The gelding covered six furlongs over a sloppy, sealed track in 1:12.21.

I considered the son of Silver Deputy-Flower Canyon, by Gulch the first of 11 "steals" of Keeneland's April sale a year ago when he sold for $10,000 as Hip 17 on the day. I liked that while the then-colt's page wasn't blotted with black type, his dam was a winner at 2 who had borne five winners from seven prior foals, three of them full siblings to this one who had already won 10 times between them.

Unstoppable Mick nearly lost out on the honors of posting the sales class' 100th win. A couple of hours earlier at Penn National, Bibblesman, who broke his maiden on March 16 at Penn two days before Unstoppable Mick's maiden win, was the beaten favorite at 6/5 odds in an allowance race. Bibblesman was caught at the wire by 4-year-old second-favorite Rascal Flatter, and lost by a neck. I selected the colt by Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat as a potential bargain for a client at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May. He sold for $22,000 at Timonium, and now has a win and two seconds from four starts, for $46,660.

Follow all 187 sales picks, and a handful of pans, throughout their careers, at this link.

A pricey bunch of 'average' horses

2011-04-06T18:53:00.003-04:00

While selecting 187 juvenile racing prospects from a few of last year's thoroughbred auctions, I also took time to critique the purchase -- or purchase-prices, anyway -- of a handful of horses from two of those sales.

Eight horses made my "surreal" list from Keeneland's April sale, an auction in which I labeled certain other purchases the "steals" of the sale, and recommended a third list of prospects that went unsold as animals which might be purchased privately, or could turn up in a future sale and should be considered at that time. The ninth horse I panned was the lone "de-tip" I made from Ocala's huge April sale of 2-year-olds in training.

So far, my doubts have proved fairly well-placed.

On the whole, the nine horses have as of this date made 21 lifetime starts. And five are already winners, of a combined six races. But class considered, that's almost where the good news ends.

First, let's give credit where it's due to the more promising horses of this group.

Malicia, a chestnut filly by Tapit-Malia, by Regal Classic, was the cheapest of the 10 horses whose purchase prices I criticized, selling for $110,000. And my criticism of buyer Prime Equestrian in this case (but not in other cases, as you'll see) was appropriately muted. I noted that she sold for much less than the average price of a Tapit filly at that point last year ($239,375), which was a good thing, but that her female family's racetrack history was pretty hit-and-miss, and I simply would have balked at paying $110K for her. ... She promptly was sent to France and won twice in as many starts at age 2, earning $35,954. She is yet to race at 3.

And, Akkadian, a strapping dark bay colt by Tiznow who sold as Hip 86 at KEEAPR to Gary S. Broad, has worked like a champ and collected a win and a place from three starts, for $46,560. He looks like he could be a very promising racehorse, though the $270,000 purchase price at the sale could still be a little difficult to earn back. It seemed too much at the time (and perhaps still does) for a colt whose nearest graded stakes-winner on the catalog page was under his fourth dam.

It just gets ugly from there.

The group does boast three more winners, but all could be considered disappointments by their connections. Harsher critics would call them busts.

Hip 120 at KEEAPR was a horse from the "surreal" list that actually didn't sell. I was surprised that $340,000 was offered for a colt -- later named Isaac Newton -- whose equal I thought could be purchased for a small fraction of the price. But I was simply aghast that the seller, McKathan Bros., agent, didn't take it. ... On March 2 this year, in his second career start, the Bernstein colt broke maiden by a half-length at Gulfstream. For a $35,000 tag. And went unclaimed. He has earned $11,572.

Three lots later, at Hip 123, Padua Stables signed the $350,000 ticket for a colt later named Jaeger, sired by Indian Charlie and out of the Valid Wager mare, The Church Lady. He was fleet, with a 10-flat eighth. And his page had plenty of winners. But those winners and most stakes performers were largely at second-tier Canadian tracks like Northlands Park and Hastings Park (i.e., not top-notch Woodbine). The price seemed far too high for a horse . And, it has proven to be so. On March 5 at Laurel Park, Jaeger broke maiden among special weights in his fourth lifetime start. Exactly three weeks later, he was sixth beaten 11 3/4 in a $40K optional-claimer in which he wasn't risked for the tag. Jaeger has earned-back $28,420 of that $350,000 ticket. And that can't be what Padua Stables had hoped.

And, the fifth winner is Malibu Star, who has earned six figures already while racing in Japan. How can that be disappointing? ... Well, because buyer Katsumi Yoshida paid the second-highest price of the Keeneland April sale for this Malibu Moon colt, a cool $575,000. So a win and two unplaced efforts from three starts, earning $100,170 in the Land of the Rising Purse (where third-rate horses can be six-digit earners), has to be less than Mr. Yoshida had expected.

While it's true that plenty of time remains for any of those horses to elevate their stock dramatically -- it's just early April of their 3-year-old seasons -- the remaining four have to look like even worse investments.

Prime Equestrian dropped $310,000 apiece at KEEAPR for a Birdstone colt later named Prime Opportunist and a Rockport Harbor colt who became known as Billy Smart. That $620,000 investment and training bills since have resulted in four starts and $940 banked between the two, although I suspect both will eventually win. At some level.

"Mr. & Mrs. Moss & Diamond Pride" plunked down $200,000 for a Bernstein filly who breezed well at KEEAPR and who has a little bit of family. But I was skeptical of her chances in part because I think her sire is somewhat overrated. The filly now named J T Safe at Home has yet to make a start.

And in my lone Ocala April "pan," a High Fly filly later named Frothy Market set the under-tack show ablaze with a 9 3/5 clocking for an eighth-mile. I knew that would grossly inflate her value, far above and beyond the worth of a filly who is by a sire that so far has done virtually nothing, and out of a dam who had only raced once. She ran a fairly dull race on dirt for Klaravich Stables and W.H. Lawrence, and while she perked up a bit when given a turf try recently, Frothy Market is unplaced from two starts for $1,996.

So, about a year into their collective careers, my nine criticized juveniles of 2010 managed to cost (or RNA for) a combined $2.64 million, and have earned back $225,612, most of that by three horses.

And while I might yet be proven wrong by a horse or two, on the whole, it appears this group is just as average as I thought they'd be, despite high prices that are anything but.

Follow these nine -- and the 187 horses I did like, who were almost universally cheaper and as a group are doing undeniably better -- at this link.

Catching up: 22 new maiden-breakers so far in '11

2011-04-05T23:49:00.007-04:00

My transition from North Carolina to life in Oklahoma in the beginning months of 2011 has interrupted this blog's progress more than I ever intended, but it's high time to start catching up.

First on the agenda: An update on 22 new winners thus far in 2011 from my juvenile sales tips of 2010, each briefly mentioned here in chronological order:

-- Reward The Lady (f. by Grand Reward-You're A Lady, by Youmadeyourpoint), Jan. 8, Parx Racing, MCL $12,500 by a half-length. I had this one as placed twice at age 2, and still have the e-mail notifications from Equibase to support that, but a Brisnet search now says she was placed just once, so she must have been disqualified from one of those runner-up efforts after the fact. Either way, she broke maiden and has earned $24,920 off a $6,000 purchase price at EASMAY, where I considered her a Priority 4 and we let her pass as Hip 1 in the entire sale.

-- Diannedoesthebooks (g. by Desert Warrior-Karakorum Kiss, by Lord Carson), Jan. 9, Aqueduct, MCL $50,000 by a length and a half. A first-out winner who was a $25,000 purchase as Hip 1200 at OBS April. A bit disconcerting that he hasn't raced since, though he has worked seven times, most recently April 3 at Belmont. Hopefully connections are just waiting for some juicy NY-bred conditions at the upcoming Belmont meet.

-- Take Me To Zuber (f. by Toccet-Valid Silk, by Valid Appeal), Jan. 20, Gulfstream Park, MCL $25,000 by 4 1/2 lengths. I pegged her at OBS April, where she sold for $28,000 as Hip 629. On March 14, she placed second in the OBS Sprint Stakes at Ocala Training Center, a restricted race open to 3-year-olds that at some point in their young lives have passed through a sales ring at Ocala Breeders' Sales Co.

-- Oh So Glittery (f. by Cetewayo-Western Glitter, by Glitterman), Jan. 25, Parx Racing, MCL $25,000 by a head. I liked this tall filly and tabbed her a Priority 2 horse at EASMAY last year, where I worked as a hired bloodstock agent for the first time. She was an RNA at $15,000, but now has earned $23,490 from five starts, including paychecks for three straight fourth-place finishes in allowance company since her maiden-breaking win. Not bad for being raced short on dirt as the daughter of a distance-running turf horse in Cetewayo, who had at least five graded wins on grass at 11f and beyond. I'd like to see her get some chances on the all-weather surface this season among PA-breds at Presque.

-- The Fed Eased (c. by Montbrook-Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out), Jan. 29, Aqueduct, MSW by 7 1/4 lengths. I recommended this colt prior to his passing through the ring at OBSFEB, where he was a $65,000 RNA. He won in his second start, then made his third Grade 3 Gotham S., in which he finished fifth, beaten 5 1/2, by Stay Thirsty. From three starts, he has a win and a place for $41,000.

-- Sniper King (c. by First Samurai-Gem Treck, by Java Gold), Jan. 30, Busan in South Korea, by 6 lengths. Colt who was an $18,000 purchase as Hip 1080 at OBSAPR has earned $35,203 from six starts in Korea, where a number of my bargain-hunting sales tips have performed quite well.

-- Wild Alley Cat (c. by Flower Alley-Winner's Ticket, by Jolie's Halo), Jan. 30, Turf Paradise, MCL $18K-$25K, by 7 lengths. Won easily at first asking when entered for $20,000 in a field of maiden-claimers. Since has been fifth and sixth in allowance company at Delta Downs after being sent to Louisiana. I labeled him a Priority 2 horse at EASMAY, where he sold for just $6,000. His win didn't earn much at Turf Paradise, where the purses aren't that generous, and he has banked just $5,670, but perhaps when dropped back in among friends he'll collect another win or two.

-- Black Tulip (f. by Rock Hard Ten-Fascinating Gal, by Theatrical), Feb. 2, Tampa Bay Downs, turf MCL $32,000 by 2 lengths. I considered her a possible second-chance deal (a horse you might see at auction later) after she failed to sell at a $50,000 bid at Keeneland April. She has a win and two other on-the-board finishes from seven starts, for $13,232, but I think has and will find a home on grass.

-- Kuhlu (f. by Ghostzapper-Golden Antigua, by Hansel), Feb. 6, Turfway Park, all-weather MCL $30,000 by 3 lengths. I considered her a possible second-chance deal from 2010 Keeneland April when she failed for sell at a bid of $22,000. She was sixth of seven in an optional claimer today at Hawthorne. Kuhlu has earned $7,330 from four starts.

-- Wrapped In Gold (f. by Touch Gold-Miss Ginalie, by Skip Away), Feb. 12, Hawthorne, MCL $7,500 by a length. I tabbed her at OBS April, where she sold for just $10,000. She has made seven starts with another third-place finish among them for $7,836.

-- Willie's Way (g. by Speightstown-Willie's Luv, by Williamstown), Feb. 16, Tampa Bay Downs, MCL $8,000, by 2 1/2 lengths. I've privately questioned the handling of this fellow, by a champion dirt sprinter and raced a number of times in his 13 lifetime starts around two turns and on turf. His dam did handle both a mile and grass, so I suppose the connections (and he's been through more than one barn) were hopeful. But short and on the dirt is where he belongs. I recommended him at OBS April, where he was an RNA for $12,000. He's now collected a win, three places and two show finishes for $15,551.

-- Lion's Reign (c. by Lion Heart-Turtle Creek, by Sky Classic), Feb. 27, Turfway Park, all-weather MSW by 3 lengths. I tabbed this one among my "steals" of the Keeneland April sale after he sold for $17,000. With an unplaced finish over an off-track as the favorite in a Mountaineer allowance today, he has a win and a place from five starts for $17,387.

-- Doasisay Notasisay (c. Delaware Township-Bonjove, by Caracolero), March 2, Parx Racing, MCL $25,000 by 4 1/4 lengths. I liked this fella rather a lot out of the OBS April catalog, where he was an RNA at just $19,000. He was second twice from four starts at 2, and is yet to finish worse than second in four starts at 3, including a runner-up finish to a heavy favorite today in a Parx starter allowance where this fella was sent off at 20/1. He has now earned $52,770 from eight starts for breeder Norman E. Casse, who might actually be glad by now that the colt didn't sell at Ocala.

-- Alstom (c. by Silver Train-Miss Special Salsa, by Mr. Greeley), March 5, Oaklawn Park, MSW by a half-length. This bargain-basement, $7,000 purchase was a Priority 2 horse on my list for a client at EASMAY. He won at first asking at a nice meeting, then proved the effort was no fluke on March 31 when he missed the break but came on, well, like a train down the lane to finish third beaten only three-quarters of a length in a one-mile allowance at Oaklawn, in a race where half the field were 4-year-olds.

-- Secondtimelove (f. by Trippi-Backtothebooks, by Notebook), March 10, Charles Town, MSW by 2 lengths. This $25,000 filly made my list at OBS April, where she was Hip 779. She didn't start at 2, but has a win, place and show from five starts at 3, for $24,700.

-- Knows How To Rock (c. by Rockport Harbor-Unchained Princess, by Clever Trick), March 14, Mountaineer Park, MSW by a neck. A Keeneland April steal at $13,000, he was unplaced in three starts at 2, but is 3-for-6 on the board at age 3. He has earned $16,509.

-- Simple Truth (f. by Tale of the Cat-Summertown, by Diesis), March 14, Turf Paradise, MCL $18,000, by 4 lengths. This one sold for a bit more than I expected at OBS April, where she went for $45,000 at a sale where I was hoping to peg almost nothing but bargains. She has earned $6,560 and has a long way to go toward repaying that purchase price.

-- Bibblesman (c. by Sharp Humor-Sparkling Forest, by Forest Wildcat), March 16, Parx Racing, MCL $40,000 by 4 3/4 lengths. This colt was a $22,000 purchase as Hip 337 at EASMAY, where I liked several of the foals by this sire, and where he made my list of 48 likely bargains for my one client as a hired bloodstock agent as a Priority 1 horse. He was unplaced in one start at 2, but has hit the board in both of his efforts at 3, having earned $40,260. Very easily could win again (and again?) among his PA-bred brethren.

-- No Biggie (g. by Consolidator-Sixy Chic, by Saratoga Six), March 17, Laurel Park, MCL $25,000 by 4 lengths. I tabbed this one as a "Priority 1" when tasked by a client to seek out the least expensive horses that still had promise among the offerings at last May's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale at Timonium, Md. I liked him in most every way, and I believe his price was held down by his height. I later wrote, "had the horse been two or three inches higher at the withers and not a degree straighter nor tick faster, the money would have been two or three times greater, I'm sure." As it was, he sold for a paltry $8,000 and now has earned $21,060, including a third place at 14/1 on Tuesday in the same Parx starter allowance (won by a 3/5 shot) in which sales-tip Doasisay Notasisay was second at 20/1.

-- Unstoppable Mick (g. by Silver Deputy-Flower Canyon, by Gulch), March 18, Turfway Park, MCL $15K-$10K by 10 1/4 lengths. I called this one a "steal" when he sold for $10,000 at KEEAPR to Connie Apostelos. New trainer Rodney C. Faulkner "stole" him for new owner Frank D. Irvin for $15,000 when Unstoppable Mick aired in this Turfway maiden-claimer as the prohibitive, 1/5 favorite. He has hit the board in four of five starts for $9,429 running at low-purse Turfway.

-- Silver Jo (f. by Silver Train-Bolsa, by Mr. Prospector), April 1, Oaklawn Park, MCL $15,000 by 3 1/4 lengths. This filly won as the heavy favorite in her third lifetime start. I recommended her in my search for bargains at OBS April, where she was purchased for $12,000. She has earned $11,670 and certainly might move forward.

-- Triple Great (f. by Greatness-Triple Top, by Topsider), today, April 5, Penn National, MCL $5,000 by 8 lengths. I picked this one at OBS April, where she was an RNA for $18,000. After placing three times in six starts, I was surprised that she went unclaimed from owners Robert Falcone and John J. Lee. The filly has now earned $14,836.

Thus, through racing of April 5, 2011, it would appear that my 187-member sales-tip class of 2010 has 140 starters (74.9 percent) and 70 winners worldwide (37.4 percent). The group has seven stakes winners and 10 other stakes-placers (nine blacktype) for 3.7 percent stakes winners and about 9 percent total stakes horses.

The group has won 99 times from 684 starts (14.5 percent) with 119 second-place finishes and another 78 thirds (31.9 percent in the exacta, 43.3 percent in the money). Total earnings have reached $4,341,616 for an average of $31,012 per starter and $6,347 per start.

Follow them all at this link.

Tips of 2010 collect 2 wins in 2011 OBS sales stakes

2011-03-28T18:35:00.007-04:00

This is my first blog post of 2011, for which I must apologize -- both to those who had mentioned missing my writing, and to those who are now disappointed that I wasn't gone for good. But I do have news worth mentioning from my Sales Tip Class of 2010, even though I'm belated in reporting it.

On March 14 at Ocala Training Center, two of the four restricted stakes for 3-year-olds who had gone through the sales at Ocala, were won by horses I topped at the OBS sales of last year. And they were the "big" races, too, the $100,000 OBS Championship Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth, for both the male and female divisions. A third sales tip of mine managed to place second in the filly division of the $50,000 OBS Sprint Stakes, and a fourth selection made her debut in that same race, albeit last of six.

It's hard to take much credit for DELIGHTFUL MARY, who collected her first stakes victory in the OBS Championship Stakes filly division, defeating Be My Candy by just three-quarters of a length. The Limehouse filly was the $500,000 sales-topper at OBS April; everybody recognized her talent. Still, it's good when one of the (few) expensive ones I pick, does pan out, and so far this filly has. As a 2-year-old she had two wins from four starts, with a second place in the Mazarine Breeders' Cup S.-G3 at Woodbine and a solid third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies-G1 at Churchill in November. Delightful Mary has now earned back $370,377 of that $500,000 purchase price for owner John C. Oxley.

On the other hand, I obviously didn't have much company among the sales-day fans for REPRIZED HALO, the OBS Championship Stakes winner who sold for just $23,000 at that same OBS April auction. Yet he's been undeniably a steal of that sale. The sturdy bay colt bred by Debra and Bill Backlinie in Florida has already raced 13 times in his career. Shortly after (finally) breaking his maiden, Reprized Halo handed GOURMET DINNER (another OBS tip of mine) his first defeat in four starts last year by annexing the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at a whopping price of 46/1. Reprized Halo now has a 3-1-1 mark from those 13 starts, for $316,579 in earnings -- a pretty good return on that $23,000 investment by Roger Urbina.

Another relatively inexpensive choice of mine out of the OBS sales also hit the board on stakes-day this year. Take Me To Zuber, who had a win and a show from three prior starts, finished second behind One Star (and by a head over Wild Penny) in the filly division of the OBS Sprint Stakes. Take Me To Zuber was a $28,000 purchase at OBS April by owner/trainer Luis Oliveras, and now she's stakes-placed, with $26,260 banked.

Making her debut in that same OBS Sprint filly division was Prize Doll, a $17,000 RNA at OBS April. She was last throughout, but was six lengths back at first call and only finished beaten 4 1/4 lengths, which probably isn't a bad effort for an unraced filly tossed in a stakes race among more seasoned competitors. She finished only a nose and a neck out of fourth.

Granted, these races are restricted stakes -- open only to those 3-year-olds who at some point have already gone through the sales ring at Ocala. And the very best from those sales (Delightful Mary excepted, as connections apparently looked for a soft spot to make her 2011 return) typically bypass the sales stakes for bigger races.

But with more than 2,100 juveniles catalogued at OBS sales last year and another 1,100 or so from this crop going through the ring there as yearlings, that still leaves a huge pool of potential entries from which to draw. Of those couple-three-thousand 3-year-olds, I recommended 113 -- or fewer than 4 percent. And from that 3-plus percent came half of the OBS sales stakes winners, plus a second-place finisher.

That doesn't seem to shabby, if I do (belatedly) say so myself.

In the meantime, I'm still settling into Oklahoma after moving from North Carolina. When I do get fully settled, this blog will resume full-time, as will its following of those juvenile tips from 2010.