tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post3435154376564799641..comments2023-05-23T06:58:05.579-04:00Comments on Fugue for Tinhorns: Lookin at Lucky could be a Derby Day valueGlenn Cravenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-57505657325211481272010-04-06T21:16:45.834-04:002010-04-06T21:16:45.834-04:00That's a bold prediction. Not for Noble's ...That's a bold prediction. Not for Noble's Promise to win the Arkansas Derby Saturday, because he's perfectly capable. But for him to win the Kentucky Derby.<br /><br />I think if any of the top contenders find that 10-furlong distance to be too far, it will be Noble's Promise. I have a hunch that 9 furlongs is his effective limit. And he's gonna have to be a LOT better (or Eskendereya and Sidney's Candy a lot worse) to beat either of last week's G1 winners, let alone Lucky.<br /><br />You'll probably get a decent price on him, though, unless he just crushes Saturday as the aforementioned two did last week.Glenn Cravenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-62424854189831789572010-04-06T20:54:09.041-04:002010-04-06T20:54:09.041-04:00LAL is a very good horse but he was helped in the ...LAL is a very good horse but he was helped in the Rebel by Nakatani taking off too soon with Dublin. Still Noble was within inches of holding off LAL. Noble is your Arkansas and Derby winner.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14537483364123978089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-74771508913940949432010-04-06T12:45:29.128-04:002010-04-06T12:45:29.128-04:00A lot still depends on the outcomes of this week&#...A lot still depends on the outcomes of this week's races. If Interactif or Odysseus (or both) look spectacular in the Blue Grass, they'll attract plenty of money from bettors.<br /><br />Even if Lucky goes off third-favored -- and it's hard to think he'll be second or first after the way that Eskendereya and Sidney's Candy ran in their respective wins Saturday -- recent history says Lucky would be at least 6-1. And the better others look this weekend, to put a good performance fresher in the memories of the wagering public, the more he has a chance to drift up a little.Glenn Cravenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-1202403147216880802010-04-06T11:57:29.326-04:002010-04-06T11:57:29.326-04:00Sorry but there is no way Lookin at Lucky gets sen...Sorry but there is no way Lookin at Lucky gets sent off between 9/1 and 12/1 on May 1st.<br /><br />The crowd just loves to play back "trouble horses".<br /><br />Then when they lose they wonder why they didn't factor in the possible "trouble" in *this* race also. ;-)The_Knight_Skyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13497100877439699363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-90360958508969177602010-04-06T03:10:42.973-04:002010-04-06T03:10:42.973-04:00Midge, I think it would be virtually impossible fo...Midge, I think it would be virtually impossible for a horse to have a worse trip than Lucky did in the SA Derby without falling down.<br /><br />As for horses who finished six lengths behind the winner in their final prep and then won the Kentucky Derby, I'm not quite sure how to account for Mine That Bird last year. No, he didn't lose the Sunland Derby by six lengths -- only fourth beaten about four. But that was a race won by a horse who has never won another stakes race (Kelly Leak), and an ungraded race, to boot. (Only graded this year primarily because of MTB's surprise Derby win.) ... So to lose to Kelly Leak by four in an ungraded race in which he had no excuse is beyond doubt a worse last prep for MTB than Lucky's disastrous SA Derby that still finished with him in third.<br /><br />And while it wasn't six lengths, Thunder Gulch was fourth beaten about 4 1/2 in the 1995 Blue Grass before going off at something like 24-1 and winning the Derby.<br /><br />Anon: Gomez wasn't just the leading rider in purse winnings last year. He's been the leading rider nationally in earnings for about four straight years now, if memory serves.<br /><br />And a number of very good jockeys -- even some great ones -- never won a Kentucky Derby. George Woolf won the Santa Anita Handicap, the Preakness, the Hollywood Gold Cup three times, the Pimlico Special three times, the Whitney, Carter and Dwyer, the JC Gold Cup, the CCA Oaks, the Santa Anita Derby, the Black Eyed Susan and dozens of other top stakes races, some of them repeatedly. He never won a Kentucky Derby.<br /><br />Laffit Pincay won 9,530 races, but only one Kentucky Derby. Pat Day won 8,803 times and also only one Derby. Day rode for 32 years; Gomez is only 38 years old. He has a while to go yet before he can be written off as a total Derby bust.<br /><br />John Velazquez has more than 4,700 wins without a Kentucky Derby. Robby Albarado recently crested 4,000 wins without a Kentucky Derby.<br /><br />If you're gonna knock a jock for failing (so far) in one race on the first Saturday of each May at Churchill, you have a lot of pretty successful fellas standing in line to be dismissed.Glenn Cravenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-9611241314413017542010-04-06T01:39:03.662-04:002010-04-06T01:39:03.662-04:00Why keep GoGo on when there are other top jocks av...Why keep GoGo on when there are other top jocks available who could get the job done without all the fanfare and fireworks? It's inaccurate to assume that Garrett Gomez is the best rider for this horse (just because he led the nation in purse winnings last year doesn't mean they will hand him a KY Derby...) How many Derby's has he won? There ya go..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-11826132924868555952010-04-06T01:15:05.920-04:002010-04-06T01:15:05.920-04:00Actually i think he's getting overbet in the K...Actually i think he's getting overbet in the KD as he's everyone's wise guy now. Caracortado had a rougher trip BTW.<br /><br />Good luck finding the last time a horse finished 6 lengths behind the winner in his final prep and went on to win the KD. Regardless of excuse, it just doesn't happen.Midgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-33320308403597055672010-04-05T20:21:25.382-04:002010-04-05T20:21:25.382-04:00Glen, enjoyed the article. Lookin at Lucky's ...Glen, enjoyed the article. Lookin at Lucky's trip was horrific in Santa Anita. As far as I'm concerned, for pure grit and determination, Lucky leaves 'em all in his dust!<br />Sasscer Hill<br />http://sasscerhill.blogspot.com/Sasscer Hillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05855348330942561488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-41978946114603475032010-04-05T20:17:25.732-04:002010-04-05T20:17:25.732-04:00After i watched the replay and saw the rough trip ...After i watched the replay and saw the rough trip LAL had, I thought what a good valve LAL will be on Derby daySaratogaSpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05181152277681879529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-66233927349737495112010-04-05T19:47:59.060-04:002010-04-05T19:47:59.060-04:00It's ironic how much "bad luck" Look...It's ironic how much "bad luck" Lookin At Lucky has run into since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he gets a clean trip for once in his life in the Kentucky Derby it should be a done deal.<br />I'm really looking forward to seeing Noble's Promise and Odysseus this weekend!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-5005294094789332822010-04-05T14:58:00.323-04:002010-04-05T14:58:00.323-04:00Thanks to you, Graham, for reading. :-)Thanks to you, Graham, for reading. :-)Glenn Cravenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09760553404742644042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1266573065584680131.post-38767050022263436422010-04-05T13:09:43.720-04:002010-04-05T13:09:43.720-04:00Hi,
I enjoyed your article.
Thanks!
GrahamHi,<br />I enjoyed your article.<br /><br />Thanks!<br /><br />GrahamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com